
Reform UK gains and Labour losses in the early English local election results.
Loading summary
Luke Trill
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk.
Bus Driver (Road Safety Announcement)
I drive my bus in a busy city. That's why road safety is so important to me. I know that I must slow down and be extra careful when I make a wide turn. Buses need more room than cars. Everyone can help keep our roads safe. Next time you're driving, remember to give buses plenty of time and space to finish turning before driving ahead. Let's all plan to share the road safely. Learn how at www.sharetherodesafely.gov.
Adam Fleming
hello, the newscast election tradition continues. We have just done an episode of Newscast talking about the election results we've got so far, which was broadcast live on BBC Sounds at 7 o' clock in the morning on the dot. So that is what you'll hear now in podcast form. And we've left any of the bad bits where I made mistakes in just to keep it real.
Alex
Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.
Adam Fleming
Hello, it's Adam Fleming here, host of the BBC's Daily News podcast Newscast, and you're about to hear us record a live episode. Record a live episode. Is that possible? Well, such as the topsy turvy world of British politics, anything's possible these days. So we're gonna be talking about what results we have got at this point mainly. Well, in fact, it's only results from England at the mom. We're still waiting for lots of English local authorities and then the big picture in Scotland and Wales will only become clear after lunchtime. But I'm joined by some friends of the podcast and some fellow newscasters. So shall we get underway? Thanks for joining us. Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio
Chris Mason
and it is Chris in the newscast studio.
Alex
And it's Alex in the newscast studio
Adam Fleming
and friend of Newscast the pollster Luke Trill for more common. More in common is here More or common. Hello. Hello. Yes. Right, who's been up all night? Alex has been up all night. Luke has been up all night, Chris.
Chris Mason
We haven't, have we? No, I think we've just got to take a vow of trapper silence. Just leave these two.
Alex
We're so exhausted. You can just fill.
Adam Fleming
So we don't have any results from the Scottish Parliament yet. We don't have any results from the Welsh Senate yet. That's all going to be this afternoon. So, Alex, what sort of results do we have?
Alex
So we've got a partial picture of the council results in England so far. So it's about a quarter of the council seats that were counted overnight. And from that partial picture, there's a really clear trend. And that clear trend is that what we've been talking about for quite a long time, which is this notion that the electorate is fragmenting, I. E. They're looking to other parties other than the two parties that have traditionally been dominant in Westminster. That's Labour and the Conservatives. They're looking elsewhere and from the seats we've had in overnight, reforms seem to be the big beneficiaries of that. It's worth saying that a lot of the seats the Green Party are really targeting and had in their sights, they're still to come in. So let's see how they go. But so far lots and lots of seats going to reform from both the Conservatives and from Labour. So for Labour predicted that they were going to have losses. They have had losses in some places. I think it's fair to say they were probably worse than were expected. So around Greater Manchester, places that have been real labor strongholds for such a long time. But also let's not forget that the Conservatives have had losses as well.
Adam Fleming
Chris?
Chris Mason
Yeah, all of the. All of the above. I defer to these Stacanavite all nighters having merely crawled out of bed after the lion of getting up at 4:30 in the. In the morning. So yeah, it's a partial picture, isn't it? There is shed loads still to come. Sort of worth emphasizing just doubling down on that point because we're so used to, aren't we in the kind of British election psyche that if you haven't stayed up all night, you wake up in the morning and you turn on the telly or the radio or your phone or whatever and that's it, it's basically done. All the results are in and the analysis starts here. Well, the analysis is starting here but for a really partial picture of one nation in a multi nation state. That said, as Alex says, yes, there are clearly some trends. Reform have clearly had a really good night. Labor a really difficult night. Now, both of those things we were expecting, weren't we? For me now it comes down to particularly as the result results night and day roll on and weekends and all of that into tomorrow. There's gonna be counting on Saturday. The merit of having slept is that when you talk about tomorrow at 7 o' clock on a Friday morning. You mean Saturday rather than Friday? Yeah, I was just having a conversation with Laura Kunstberg on the telly an hour ago and she was talking about tomorrow and she actually meant Friday cause she's been up all night is psychologically how does Labour in particular react to all of this? So Picking up on Alex's point, take a couple of examples from the northwest of England. Take Thames side in Greater Manchester and Wigan. So the home of Angela Rayner, the former Deputy Prime Minister, in Thameside Wigan, Lisa Nundi, the Cabinet Minister, massive, massive losses there in both of those places for the Labour Party, huge gains for Reform. Now, the picture so far arguably downplays Reform's potential gains because a lot of these counts overnight were only where a third of the seats were available. So there was a capped off limit to how well or badly any party could do. If some of those gains that Reform had made in places like Wigan and Thames side had been matched, had all of the seats been up. And of course that's an if we don't know, then the picture would look even more gloomy for Labour this morning. One little thing, given that we're live, we can do breaking news. The Conservatives have taken Westminster Council in the last 10 or 15 minutes, which is something that allows them something to cheer. It's a. It's a council that historically they have long held but they lost in 2022. It'll give Kemi Badenoch something to, to cheer on what is otherwise likely to be. I'm going to stop saying night because it's now day, but a tough day. I nearly said night again for the Conservatives as well as for Labour, but from the Conservative perspective, where they'll be able to sort of hide behind the reality of a far more grim night for the Labour Party.
Adam Fleming
I'm wondering if we should just think of this as one continuous time period and give up on old fashioned concepts of night and day, just like giving up on old fashioned concepts like the two main parties. Luke, you've got your laptop open and I can see you've got a map there. Which bits are you sort of hovering over?
Luke Trill
Well, the interesting thing is just actually quite how much grey there is on that map and that is because we are heading towards a record number of councils for falling into no overall control in these results. And that's simply because our politics has become way more fragmented. In fact, you said we're going to not talk about specific times, but I think it's 7:05 on the 8th of May. I think I can pronounce time of death for the two party system right now because right across the country you are seeing people saying what we've got ain't working. And we heard that in our focus groups in the run up to these elections. We want something different. We're willing to roll the dice on reform but also the Greens as well. So I think it's, you know, the results are incomplete, as Chris said, but it's already a fascinating picture. And I think one of the things which is already emerging was I think there were some people assuming that there would be a clear direction of travel for Labour in particular, that basically what was happening was that Labour was losing votes to its left and that was either allowing reform in or the Greens were gained. If you look at lots of those results in those Northern Councils, it's not that what has clearly happened, it's not movement within blocks. There has been shift. It looks like there's been shifting between blocks and the right block in particular, the reform block looks to have grown. Some of that will be differential turnout, some of that will be switches. But he's very clear there is no easy answer to labor. Now just switch left or go right there. They've got to find a way of putting Humpty Dumpty back together.
Adam Fleming
Just explain that phrase you use, differential turnout.
Luke Trill
So what that means is reform voters look like they are much more motivated to come out and vote. There will be some Labour voters who aren't ready to switch to another party. But just think, do you know what? I'm not bothering, I'm not enthusiastic about this. And speaking to people on the ground and looking at some of the turnout in some of these boards, it is clear reform are not just attracting switches, they are growing the electorate. And of course, that mirrors the pattern we've seen from Donald Trump in the us We've seen from populist radical right parties on the continent, this ability to get voters who don't normally come out in these sorts of elections.
Adam Fleming
And that's an echo of the Brexit referendum, where Dominic Cummings is hailed as a strategic genius for finding people who'd never really engaged in the, in the voting process before and getting them in. I realize we've now kind of talking about time. We've kind of skipped ahead because I had a really good question sent in by newscaster Emily in Cardiff and she was asking about the end of the two party political system. So we kind of answered Emily's question, but I just want to read her email because she's had a busy night as well. She says, I'm a resident doctor working in Wales. I'm currently working in night shift on my most favorite of days, polling day. I'm writing up my patient notes with Laura Kay on in the background, hearing the council election results come in, absorbing all the political analysis. I'll be tuning into the breakfast newscast on my way home and looking forward to my day off watching the Welsh results come in. Thank you, newscast team. So, Emily, thank you for your question and glad we could answer it before you've even asked it. Right, should we zoom into some actual results then? Because we've done the big picture really well there. Alex, you mentioned Wigan. So that is in Westminster terms, that's Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary's parliamentary seat, isn't it? So there Labour were defending 22 seats because not all the seats in this council were up for grabs. They lost all those 22 and reform won 24. So even though it's still a Labour council, in terms of the control of the council, they lost all the seats that they were defending yesterday.
Alex
And that's what I mean about why in some places these results were worse than labor might have expected. That is a brilliant example of it. Because Wigan is in Greater Manchester. It is Lisa Nandy seat. This is the kind, I mean, I've got in front of me because we do all this pre briefing and prep for these kind of things and I've got the council history in front of me and it just says the year and then who is in control. And I'm just looking back 1973, labor, labor, labor, Labor, Labor. I mean it just goes on and on and on all the way up until 2024. Labor solidly in control of that. And you're right, they're still in control of the council because one of the vagaries of the electoral system means there were only a third of those seats that were up for grabs this time around. So Reform couldn't win the council, but it just pushed labor out of all of those seats. And you know, that is the kind of area where Reform were expected to make some inroads in there. They were looking at these kind of places. They wanted to do well in them. But I think reforms probably outperformed its own expectations. And I think Labour were taken a bit aback by just the scale of some of those losses in those areas because these are the places that, you know, just labor in their core up until this point.
Adam Fleming
And another example of that, though it's slightly more complicated, as you will hopefully now explain. Chris is Hartlepool. So I remember you were there on the morning of the Hartlepool by election. I was in 2021, which was Boris Johnson at his peak and that became a really symbolic moment because, oh like solid red Hartlepool has turned blue for the tourists. Wasn't there a giant Boris Johnson inflatable balloon there as well, the Boris blimp.
Chris Mason
There was. There was. I've. I've. In all the by elections I have ever covered, I've never come across a by election where I encountered so much genuine enthusiasm for a victor, particularly a victor in that instance who wasn't an outsider, who wasn't a alternative, if you like, to the established parties of Westminster, but was actually the personification at that point of the Conservative Party. And of course, as we were to learn, it was clear on the. On the day, but we have learned since, so pivotal in the arc of the story of Keir Starmer, it very nearly was the moment where he thought, you know what? This politics lark isn't for me. Attempting to put the Labour Party back together and turning it into a winning machine is impossible. Sod it, maybe I'll go back to the law. These are not his words, but that was the sentiment reflected in the books written, written since. And he decided not to. And of course we know what happened. We know what happened since all of that waffle allowed me to type Hartlepool into our election system and pull it up here. So the result in Hartlepool, Labour losing it to no overall control, losing the seven seats that it was defending, Reform gaining 12 seats. And then there's a couple of other losses for independents and indeed for the Conservatives. Again an indication of the limitation for the scope of movement, given how many seats were up for. Were up for being contested. But an insight, isn't it, into how our politics has changed in relatively short order that the Conservatives in this contest there in Hartlepool overnight, not really significant players, yes, they've lost some seats, but the big switching happening between Labour and Reform. So it's almost like the 2026 iteration from Keir Starmer's perspective of the nightmare he confronted back then in that by election.
Adam Fleming
And there's just a few other interesting places I'm looking at Newcastle under Lyme, so not Newcastle, the City, but Newcastle under Lyman in Staffordshire, just next to Stoke on Trent. And there, that's. That's one of the few examples where a council has actually changed hands in terms of whose control of the council it was. It was Conservative led before, it's now going to be led by reform and basically a stonking victory for them there. They won 27 seats. What does that, what does Newcastle under Lyme tell us?
Luke Trill
Well, it shows us again, in that kind of territory, we are seeing reform on the advantage. This is a council where labor have had control, the Conservatives have been in Control. And actually I've got in front of me, you can't see now, but a sort of fan chart which shows the different colors of each party. And you've seen suddenly got this big slither of turquoise which goes down. And I think it shows, you know, that actually Reform are able to win in their sort of Red Wall Heart lunch in a place like Hartlepool, where they're winning seats. Former Tory areas like Essex, where they're doing very well, but also on the march in some of those more Middle England council areas like Newcastle under Lime.
Alex
And it's also just worth saying about Newcastle under Lyme, and this is true of another couple of councils. Newcastle under Lyme sits in Staffordshire. Staffordshire. Staffordshire is one of the county councils that Reform took control of following last year's local elections. Now, there have been problems at Staffordshire Council, including allegations of racism. Equally Redditch, another council where Reform took seats off labor, that sits under Worcestershire County Council, another county council that Reform controls. Their Reform put the council tax up by 9%. Now, if you remember when 9%, 9% and the threshold is 5%, they had to get special permission to do it. The council says it was because of the financial difficulties they inherited. But clearly a very controversial, special thing to do given that Reform had gone in, promising to find waste, etc. Etc. So I think what that just shows you is that if you remember when Reform took control of county councils last spring, opposition parties were saying, wait till Reform have got its reins on the hands of power, see how they do, and then you'll all know, and with the assumption that that would turn voters off. Now, it's early, we're a year in, and of course, councils will differ, but at this point, if you look, for example, Staffordshire and Worcestershire and in Lancashire, where Reform have made gains in their control, the county council so far, people are still voting for them.
Adam Fleming
Chris, let's talk about London. I mean, there's loads of things to say about London, but the kind of, the most important thing in terms of this set of elections is every single borough, every single councillor was up, was up for grabs.
Chris Mason
Exactly. So there's two important points. There's that, and therefore there is, at least mathematically, the scope for colossal change if the electorate chooses to. Chooses to do that. And then secondly, the scale of Labour's imprint in London going into these elections, so controlling two thirds of the councils in the capital, a disproportionate number of Labour's members being based in London, the vast majority of parliamentary seats in London being held by Labour. So it's back to that psychology point. If by the end of all of the results, things are really bleak for Labour in London, albeit it could be really bleak with them still running loads and loads of London councils because so deep is their imprint in the capital, then how does that play into the swirl of the emotions of the Labour Party as the next 24, 36 hours pans out?
Adam Fleming
And in terms of the results we've got from London, I mean, so far, Cami Badenot will be quite happy. And I can predict what she'll be saying when she goes on the radio shortly. She'll be like, oh, we won back these councils that have been associated with the Tories for decades, like Wandsworth and Westminster. But it's a bit more complicated than that.
Luke Trill
It is. And, you know, look, this has been a dreadful night for the Conservatives, another dreadful night. I mean, last year was much more on their turf, this set of elections, more on Labour's turf. But even when they're defending seats, they are losing them across the board, both to reform, but also losing seats to the Liberal Democrats, still in places like Hart as well, expecting to lose more in places like Surrey as well. But the Conservatives will be trying to point to Westminster, where I think they've gained nine seats. Wandsworth, where they have the largest party, although there's one Independent who might hold the balance of power there. Hearing from some people that actually in Bexley, which some people expected to go reform, the Conservative vote might be holding up a bit better than expected. And so I think what Kimi Badenot will try and do, he says, look, with our core, I'm stabilizing the party, you know, that the offer on things like stamp duty expect will have gone down particularly well in that sort of areas. This is a base to build back on. But, you know, to use, you know, that old adage about lipstick on a pig, you know, this is. This is a very bad set of results. And you can point to individual councils, Harlow as well. They had a very good result in Essex there, where they were perhaps expected to lose. It's still a bad set of results, still a long way to go. And I think the danger is, particularly when results from Scotland and Wales start coming in, when we've done focus groups there, they just haven't been in the conversation. And it might allow Reform uk, Reform uk, desperate to make the claim that the Tories are no longer a national party. And winning a few councils in London doesn't allow you to dispute that.
Adam Fleming
And we haven't mentioned the Greens yet, which might sound a bit weird when people think about all the hype around Zach Polanski and Zach Polanski's TikTok account. But actually, Alex, that's because we're not at a point in the results cycle where we can really say how well the Greens have done.
Alex
Yeah, I mean, they have made some gains overnight. They have. But the areas that the Greens are really focusing their attention are not declaring their results mostly until Friday. And a couple of key wins on Saturday, particularly in London, where the Greens are hoping to make gains from labor in some inner London boroughs. A lot of those results are not going to come in until Friday or Saturday. So it's hard to assess the big picture of the Green performance at this stage in any really meaningful way. Although the messaging that you're getting from the party, as you might expect, is fairly chipper because they are gaining and
Adam Fleming
then sticking with London. Richmond Upon Thames, a very leafy bit of West London. I'm wondering when they're going to put up their Ed Davies statues there because the Luke Tams just seem to have swept the whole of Richmond Upon Thames pencil in a massive orange wave.
Chris Mason
Yeah. And it's intriguing, isn't it, as we unpick. Well, firstly, just picking up on Luke's point. Isn't it fascinating in this dissection so far and I suspect we'll probably be in a similar place by the end of it, that the second and third biggest parties in Parliament, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, are tucked away in the grand sweep of this in the sort of in other news kind of category where you've got the tricky, massively tricky strategic challenges challenge that the Conservatives face in the next couple of years and then the Liberal Democrats. So Ed Davies had a bit of heat from his MPs at Westminster, have been pondering have they really been making the Most of having 72 MPS is privately some Lib Demps saying is the Ed Davies shtick wearing a bit thin, etc. Etc. And yet in their own pockets they will be able to, and there's early evidence of it already, be able to point to doing pretty well, doing pretty well in places that traditionally have been a bit of a tussle between them and the Conservatives. Richmond on Thames is a is a good example. I think there'll be other examples to come in. In rural southern England, they could point to taking control in Stockport and in Portsmouth from memory overnight. Broadly speaking, I think across the piece so far, relatively modest gains for them. But they can say as opposition parties like To. And unlike the Conservatives, that they're making gains and have been making gains for years and years now, granted, making gains for years and years, having had that. That near wipeout experience after their coalition years. But Ed Davy will have places that he can head to and smile at Richmond being one of them.
Adam Fleming
And, Chris, your mention of Portsmouth is making me think of the south coast, which reminds me of the result from Southampton, where Labor lost control of the council to no overall control and they lost. Lost control of the council in a big way. Oh, sorry, our results system here.
Alex
No, this is my patch. Come on. This is all right. This is fine. So they lost control in a big way, did they?
Adam Fleming
They did, they did, yeah. Anyway, less said about Southampton.
Chris Mason
Ten, ten seats down for labor, eight up for Reform, two up for the Lib Dems, four down for the Conservatives and four up for the Greens. So actually, in its own way, it's a. It's quite a. It's. It's a little something of a microcosm, isn't it, of. Of how the parties are faring relative to one another.
Alex
Yeah. And that is definitely one of the areas that Reform was looking at. But if you take Hampshire more broadly, and I don't think we've had the final declaration for Hampshire County Council yet, Council that the Conservatives have dominated for a very long time, an interesting one there, if you take the bigger picture across Hampshire. So Portsmouth is Southampton. Just to be clear, I don't want to bore people here.
Luke Trill
Right.
Alex
But Southampton and Portsmouth are unitary authorities, so they don't sit under Hampshire County Council. But obviously the geography means they are in Hampshire. Right. So if you take the kind of broader county of Hampshire, it is a bit more of a mixed picture. And I think Reform were hoping to do really quite well in Hampshire and actually perhaps haven't done quite as well as they'd expected in some places. Other parts of Hampshire, like in Portsmouth, where the Liberal Democrats have done quite well there. So it's a weirdly mixed picture across Hampshire. I'm not quite clear what the story from Hampshire really is just yet, if I'm honest.
Luke Trill
And it's interesting, I think that you might. I mean, it's a bit early, but I think you might be starting to see some evidence of a new type of tactical voting in these elections. So I was looking at Broxbourne, that's one of the councils that the Conservatives have held, and what's really interesting there is in Reform, Tory fights, and some of them where the Tories held on quite narrowly, the left vote was really squeezed. And what it seems might have happened is, and this was kind of unimaginable a few years ago, that you had some Liberal Democrat and Labour voters voting for the Conservatives to stop reform. And I wonder if we might see that in some parts of Hampshire and elsewhere as well.
Chris Mason
I've lost count of the number of Conservative MPs I've spoken to who have said now granted, often with the self awareness of how tricky things are for their party, but how they've said that for the first time they've been having conversations in their patches where people have come up, declared themselves proudly to be lifelong socialists and then said and I'll vote Conservative at the next general election because of that. From their perspective, fear of reform.
Adam Fleming
And what's so interesting about that, because it's back to that question we got from the resident doctor in, in, in Wales, like the death of the two party system, which people in our walk of life have been talking about for a long time. But actually we're going to have to get more sophisticated about what that actually means because up until now it's meant that other parties other than Labour and the Conservatives doing better on days like this actually it means people's political identities being much more different as well. So for example, a Lib Dem voter being prepared to vote Tory or whatever.
Luke Trill
And on the flip side there are very definitely, in fact there have been some high profile examples of, I think of people who are on the right saying that they are voting Labour in some of those inner London Labour boroughs to try and stop the Greens. And I'm not sure how successful because there aren't that many right wing voters in those places. But you know, we are kind of in this kind of topsy turvy land where both political allegiances are more fluid but actually the desire to vote against is almost more strong now than the desire to vote for.
Chris Mason
But and also the sort of, with the splintering comes a perhaps inevitable cap on the popularity of anyone. So you have very, very loosely at this point at 20 past 7, reform, when you look across the piece, outperforming the others by a, by a decent margin, but being in the upper 20s, maybe about 30% of a share with the other four in the upper teens, maybe just about scraping 20. So those questions around legitimacy for anyone who then finds themselves in government, we already, you know, the current government feel it keenly given the share of the vote they managed last time around, but it was higher than reform are currently managing so far.
Adam Fleming
Right, let's talk about a bit of Political reaction then. And Alex, you had the ringside seat to what people from all the parties were saying overnight because you were on with Nick and Rachel on, on the radio program, which was also an iplayer. Yeah, it was so I could watch you at various points in the night.
Chris Mason
Yeah.
Alex
And you messaged me saying, I love being able to watch you look at
Adam Fleming
your computer that creepy way I said it in a friend.
Chris Mason
Never mind the death of two party politics, this is the death of the ability to pick your nose on the radio, isn't it?
Adam Fleming
Yeah, that was. Used to be one of the parts.
Chris Mason
It's been long time, but when, when the overnight radio show was a television
Alex
experience, I was very mindful of who might be watching. Adam Fleming. Yes.
Adam Fleming
Would you like to give us a sample of some of the reactions that you heard from people?
Alex
Yeah, I think from very early on, in fact, one of the first people that was out on the airwaves was David Lammy. And I was quite a Deputy Prime Minister and I was quite struck by what he'd said just a few minutes after the polls had closed, when he was even at that stage warning the Labour Party to hold your nerve in his words.
Adam Fleming
Well, yeah, let's listen to David Lammy and his own words, then we can talk about what, what, what he was meaning. You don't change the pilot during the
Tristan Redman
flight,
Adam Fleming
you carry on. And you recognize too that governments sometimes, particularly incumbent governments, have it hard. Yeah, so that's a slightly different bit from what you were talking about. But I mean, what strikes me there is like just this is really. Well, I mean, he's never going to give a ringing endorsement in a situation like this. But like he. Yeah, he sounded very unsure of himself there, not even convinced by his own metaphor.
Chris Mason
The captain only says don't change the pilot during the flight when there's people knocking at the cockpit door. That. That's the point, isn't it?
Alex
Well, exactly. I mean that. And that's the point by the fact he was out so early, warning the party to hold your nerve is a sign that, that there was a recognition that this is a moment of potential peril for the Prime Minister. And that kind of messaging was echoed throughout from. From lots of people that were coming out, people that were in government for, for the most part, warning, I suppose, or sounding warnings about what would happen if the party turned inward right now and, and went into some leaders how damaging they said that they think that would be and it was not the right time to do it. And lots of talking about, yes, we need to read these results and have respect for the councillors that have lost their seats and listen to the electorate. But, but, but effectively K dmer is the guy and we need to stick with him. What you were hearing from some of the counselors who have been out on the ground knocking the doors, some of whom were probably in the early hours of the morning, a bit exhausted, to be frank, and pretty disappointed at some of them who, you know, have been working for their communities have lost their seats. And a few of those were saying that Keir Starmer's popularity was a real problem on the doorstep and they were quite frank about it. So I think it's kind of inevitable that there is a discussion now. Yes. About Labor's direction, but, yeah, the leadership is going to come into that. There's an inevitability about it, but I don't get the sense from anyone I've heard over the course of the evening that there's a kind of consensus about what that actually means.
Adam Fleming
Yeah. Because Chris, normally. And like, so I. My alarm is set for 5 o', clock, so I've had a very luxury day compared to everyone else here. And the first thing I went looking for was like, right, right. Which laboured losers have stuck the knife in and said, starmer's got to go. Because actually, by this point in the news cycle, you would have expected that to happen. And I can't. Maybe I haven't used the right search terms, but I haven't really found any examples of people being really brutal about the pm.
Chris Mason
That's true, that's true. And now we should say it's still early on and all of that, but then maybe it's more likely in the dead of night when you've not had any sleep and all the rest of it, then, you know, maybe it's a bit less likely during the day. But I mean, that's absolutely true. And it was one of the things that inevitably we as journalists look for when a party has a difficult night, in the same way that you look for joyous celebrations amongst parties that are. That are successful. I think the one thing I would say is to reiterate that point about how much more is still to come, even in England, let alone Scotland and. And Wales.
Adam Fleming
And, yeah, just give us a bit of a timeline about how the rest of the day unfolds.
Alex
So we get a couple of hours now to all take a breath and in my case, sleep for a full two hours and then you'll start to get other council results starting to come in. I Think it's from kind of like late morning, early afternoon is when we start to get some of the other English council results come in. While that's happening, you also get counting underway in Scotland and in Wales. And those results, the results will start to trickle in kind of early afternoon through the afternoon. And if all the counting goes to plan, and who knows if it will, especially because there's a new electoral system in Wales that they're going to have to contend with, then we should get a picture of how it looks for Holy Reed and for the Senate by the early evening.
Chris Mason
The shorthand way, I think, for newscasters to digest it is that by sort of 7pm tonight, we'll probably be at where you would normally be at 7am on a general election night. In other words, not necessarily every vote yet counted, and that certainly won't be the case by 7 o' clock tonight, but where the broad sweep is pretty much there, but between now and then. So the best part of the next 12 hours, effectively election night, as we're used to it, rolls on, albeit as Alex says, with a bit of a pause in terms of a flood of results, because the counting will start in lots of places in the next couple of hours and then it'll take a while, obviously, until we start getting results.
Adam Fleming
And then later this afternoon, Professor Sir John Curtis will do his projected national share, which is. And I have to be careful because he always tells me off when I say things like, oh, it's as if it was a general election.
Alex
I read off the blog on this last night.
Adam Fleming
No, basically it's. He takes the results that we've got and then says, if everyone in every part of the country had had a vote yesterday and Kushi had a.
Chris Mason
Had a vote in local authority.
Adam Fleming
Exactly.
Luke Trill
Yes.
Adam Fleming
But this is how. This is what the party's overall share of the vote across the country would be.
Chris Mason
So it's imagining a scenario where there were local authority contests across Great Britain, which of course there weren't because they were just in England, and then the devolved elections in Scotland and Wales probably get it mid afternoon, I think, mid to late afternoon.
Adam Fleming
And with all those caveats, it's still a useful thing.
Chris Mason
Yeah. And I think broadly speaking, where it is likely to end up is with reform in the upper 20s, maybe scraping 30, the others all in the teens and all relatively close to one another. So the gap between second and fifth, if I've done my numbers right, could be quite tight.
Adam Fleming
And also it's useful look for your business, because if that is the Case that shows the opinion polls that we've all been looking at for the last few months, last few years are broadly correct.
Luke Trill
Yeah. And so we hope are looking at a general election. This is looking at local elections. I mean, the thing which I'm really looking at on there is last year first time party outside of the top two was on top on the PNS reform at 30%. As Chris says, we expect them to be around there, but I think precisely where they are around there will really help to tell us. You know, we've been having this sort of endless debate. Have they platinum toed, you know, are they dipping? This is the best like for like measure that we've got for reform. And if you know the Tories, labor making any progress from last year and also, yeah, as you say, quite where the Greens are on it and that the Greens really are, I think at this moment the big outstanding question in
Chris Mason
England because obviously they're not new, but in terms of their leap forward question mark under Zach Polanski, that's the big change from a year ago, isn't it?
Luke Trill
Yeah, absolutely. And we know that, you know, they've risen in opinion polls. You know, Zach Polanski's had big cut through. I should say though that they closed the campaign not particularly well. And over the last week we in our polling had a 14 point drop in Zach Polanski's net approval ratings. I think the fallout from that retweet, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner's intervention, Keir Starm's intervention did knock a bit of the shine off him. And what I'm interested in is a bit like some of Nigel Farage's scandals doesn't really seem to stick. Is Zach Polanski the same when it comes to it? Do Green voters, do they just turn out and vote or did he give some of them pause for thought which might help Labour? Hang on in some of those inner London areas.
Adam Fleming
Chris, I know you've got to go. Do you want to give us a final thought and then we'll carry on
Chris Mason
talking once you've gone, how about long day ahead?
Adam Fleming
Yes, very good. Yes.
Chris Mason
Will that do?
Adam Fleming
Yeah, that will do.
Chris Mason
Yeah, that.
Adam Fleming
Yeah, you've earned your money.
Chris Mason
I think, I think the other thing that clearly at the moment we're not talking about because they haven't started counting the results yet, is there's a, there's a wider picture beyond fracturing, which is the kind of geographical fracturing question mark, where do we end up in terms of the results in Scotland and Wales? It looks highly Likely that the Scottish National Party are likely to be the biggest party in Scotland and remain in government into a third party. Decade of devolved government in Scotland. It is also highly likely that one of the two biggest parties in the Welsh elections will be Plaid Cymru, you know, who one day aspire to an independent Wales. Now, the projections have suggested that perhaps they are more likely to be the biggest party than Reform. But then other polls have suggested that maybe Reform are. Let's see, let's see. But that question about this multination state in which we live and the strains upon it, I think is a strand of conversation, obviously that we're not really indulging in now because we're looking at the England picture, but it seems to me is likely to be part of the conversation in 12 hours time.
Adam Fleming
Chris, I will let you go. I'll let you move your microphone out, close your laptop and then put it through the screen. Then when we did Castfest, our podcasting festival that made avail the other day, we finished recording our episode of newscast, I did what Chris did just now, which is move the microphone on the stand a little bit out and then, well, and he's also grabbed a mug and then my microphone then tipped over, landed on the coffee table right on top of a newscast mug, smashing it.
Alex
Oh, they're in short supply. They're highly hard to come by.
Adam Fleming
Absolutely, absolutely. I'm not sure what it was a metaphor for. I'm not sure it was. But I felt bad because, yeah, as Alex says, these are not. These are. These are heirlooms. These are heirlooms. Right. Do you know what really gets me about talking about all these places like, oh, the one party Lib Dem state or Richmond upon Thames. Oh, Newcastle, Newcastle, under lime. What's really going on in Wigan? It makes me realize that the thing I miss about my old job is just going out and chatting to loads of people about what they think. Because in those days I would be able to tell you why those results had happened because I, I would have had that insight. You do loads of focus groups in all sorts of places like that. Give us some, give us some juice from them.
Luke Trill
So it's really interesting and it is a sort of tale from those conversations of three different elections. So I think we visited 40 different parts of the UK to do focus groups in the run up to these elections or 40 parts of great Britain in England. It really is that insurgent election. It is people. I've just been so struck by how many people have told me the same thing, which is I work really hard, I do the right thing. It doesn't seem to pay off. And some people say that the system is rigged in favor of billionaires and they're going green. Others will say it's illegal migrants or benefit claimants, they tend to be going to reform. But they this, the central diagnosis of something not quite being right is consistent. You then go up to Scotland and I think it's fair to say I have never met people less enthusiastic about an election than in Scotland. I mean, in fact, I nicknamed it the Meh election because people, just nationalists would be, would say, well, yeah, we want the SNP to win, but we don't think John Sweeney is very exciting and they seem a bit tired. Unionists would say we really want the S and P out, but we don't like any of our options. And this almost like harking back. I mean, people would say, you know, remember we used to have Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson, Alex Salmon, Kezia Dugdale. Almost like there was this sort of golden age of Scottish politics that had been lost. And then you move to Wales and it's another different picture. And what comes out really strongly there, particularly amongst people who are going to Plyde, is this sense of change. You know, we're finally going to get Labour out of Cardiff Bay. Labour being really hurt by being double incumbents, as we've talked about on elections, cast before, but amongst plied voters, just this real. Like we're going to have someone who's going to stand up for Wales. So much more excitement there and these different dynamics playing out across the country. But, you know, in each of them it is, you know, laborers, the government who are, you know, losing out.
Adam Fleming
And I saw you posting on social media overnight about how actually the winter fuel decision to take it away from. From most pensioners other than the poorest theorist, which was actually a U turn on what they were originally going to do, how that still comes up all the time. That was like one of the first sort of decisions the government made.
Luke Trill
I genuinely think it's like the original sin of this government because it squandered goodwill immediately. It looked like it was both sneaky because it wasn't in the manifesto and that it was sort of people took it as, oh, my goodness, it's going to be a continuation of Tory austerity type stuff. We thought we were voting for something different and the public just haven't moved on from it. And when people ask me, people often say, you know, from your group, say, okay, I can understand people being disappointed in Keir Starmer. But why do they really seem to dislike it? Why in some cases do they really seem. I think winter fuel is part of that because people thought it was so unfair and it was a classic case of what's become known as treasury brain. And these sort of clever people who thought, well, you know, intergenerational fairness and our voters are all younger, so it won't matter. And they kind of forgot that pensioners have kids and they have grandkids. And if you looked at the polling, it was the kids and the grandkids who were most upset about winter fuel being removed, not just the pensioners themselves.
Alex
And if Rachel Reeves, I was just gonna echo. That sentiment has been a echoed on the airwaves by many, many labor mps, even tonight, saying that, you know, winter fuel is still, was, still, remains still an issue. And it was a couple of weeks ago, when there was lots of kind of frustration bubbling over in the Labour Party, that a minister said to me in slightly less clean language than this, it all stems back to Winterfuel. I just think that is such a strong sentiment and the party have recognised that.
Adam Fleming
And if Rachel Reeves was here, she would say she'd gone into the treasury, there was loads of unfunded spending commitments that she'd inherited from the Conservatives, she had to cut something somewhere to maintain the confidence of the bond markets, because otherwise people's mortgage rates would have gone up as a result of all of that. And actually she would then say, okay, we listened to people who were angry about this and they tweaked policy. So that's what I'm duty bound to say is not as Rachel Reeves spokesperson, but if Rachel Reeves was here, I think that's how she would explain it. Alex Other things that have come, of course, you get to do like a mini focus group every Week on Radio 4 on, on any questions, other things that, that help just explain where we are today.
Alex
I think it is, it's, it's a, it's a kind of sense and it depends where you are in the country, but in most places it's a kind of sentiment that people feel that they've been a little bit neglected, that the things that matter to them aren't really the things that, that government or council or the powers that be are dealing with or. And addressing properly that their lives, you know, things aren't really where they should be. Things aren't really getting better. For me, I'm not really feeling it and I know we've discussed it before, but sometimes that comes out when you're talking to people in the kind of physical, physical area around them, the environment. So it is things like the potholes, the state of the high street, the, you know, litter, this sense that the area isn't being looked after and people are paying their taxes, whether it's your council tax or other taxes, and they don't feel like they're getting stuff back, that really gives them a sense that things are kind of going in a better direction. And I think it's that kind of sentiment which has, you know, it's created a kind of political apathy and a disillusionment, particularly with the parties who've been so dominant in politics, which is then leading to. What we're seeing now is that when you've got other parties that are coming along. And yes, the Green Party have been around for a long time, but Zach Polanski's Green Party, which. Which has now kind of had this surge along with Reform uk, it's sort of attracting people to them. And whether or not people believe they have the solutions is the question that I'm not sure about. Or whether people are going, look, we've tried the others before. Let's give these guys a go.
Luke Trill
Very much that, and it is a mix. You get some people who are true believers in Polanski and Farage in particular as individuals, but a lot of people who say, yeah, I think they might be just as bad, but we should give them a shot, shouldn't we? Because, you know, how much worse can it get? And. And again, that how much worse can it get? Is something I hear so often. And I don't know if you get it, but I've been particularly depressed recently in the most recent round of focus groups. In every single focus group, I've had someone saying, either I'm planning on leaving the UK or if I could leave the uk, I would, because they can't see an end to it. I think it's too expensive. They just don't think the prospects are. And how you address that, I mean, there is. It sounds a bit cheesy, but we almost need a little bit sort of, you know, Barack Obama style hope. Right? Because that's what's missing. And I think Farage and Polanski do offer a bit more of that.
Adam Fleming
Although I. Talking about the Barack Obama analogy, I always remember there's a biography of Barack Obama by. I can't remember the author, David Remnick, editor of the New Yorker. And it ends by saying, oh, Barack Obama's backstory and message got him elected. In a historic way. But it actually didn't help him when it then came to governing because the. That's really hard and totally different kettle of fish. And it just makes me think of the front page of the Labor Manifesto from the last general election in 24 change. And Starmer looking like I'm going to deliver the change. It's like, yeah, that gets you elected, but doesn't really help you when it comes to filling the potholes.
Alex
Yeah. And I do think, of course, when you talk about some of the reasons that there are potholes, which you trace it all back to, which we've done a lot of financial pressure, etc. Etc. A lot of this comes down to the fact that public finances are under pressure and that the economy has been. Been largely, broadly pretty stagnant for a very long period of time. And so, you know, they are quite big problems for any party to solve. And that isn't going to go away whoever kind of gets elected ultimately.
Adam Fleming
One last email from newscaster John, who lives in Pittenweem in Fife. Lovely. He says, having voted in the Hollywood election today, my partner Bridget and I have been thinking about the fact that our votes are no longer counted overnight. Presumably one reason why counts happened immediately was because it meant there was less time for ballot boxes to be tampered with, for ballot papers to go missing, or even for them to be destroyed by fire or flood. That set us wondering what measures are in place to prevent these things from happening before the count starts in the morning. Where are the ballot boxes secured overnight and who guards them? We would love to know the answer. Cheers. And we love newscast, of course. Thank you very much, John and Bridget. So I started investigating this. Under the Representation of the people Act, Section 45, Rule 7, it says that ballot boxes have to be stored securely between the close of the count and the start of the count. And it doesn't specify what securely means. So I think it's up to the presiding officer.
Luke Trill
And I think, you know, the good thing about this is it does suggest we are still at least a higher trust society than the U.S. right. Because if you're doing this in the U.S. you're like, we're going to store these ballot boxes and not count them. There would be outrage about sort of rigged elections. And I remember, I think it was the last general election. It might have been the local election. Before it, there was a polling station that couldn't open because they had a flood or something and they just had the ballot box in the back of someone's car. With people coming and doing it now, I think there's something kind of lovely about that. But again, in lots of other countries you'd have had people crying foul. But I should say I'm not. Just for my own professional sanity, I'm a big fan of overnight counts and I wish we'd all just move back to that.
Adam Fleming
Although we've moved away from it because it's quite expensive for local authorities. And so actually, would you rather have your money spent on a bit of political theater for us nerds overnight? And so you've got more to talk about with Rachel Purgen and Nick Robinson on the radio special or paying for adult social care or send.
Alex
Although now we have got this strange position where some counted overnight, some are counting on Friday, some are even counted on Saturday. So if you really love this kind of thing, you've got two and two days of it left.
Adam Fleming
And actually, I'm now torn between whether doing this episode of Newscast at this point is genius because we've not really had any extra results while we've been recording this, so that this is the picture as it is now, or whether, yeah, we should have had more excitement, we wanted more excitement of things coming in. But yeah, this has definitely been the lull, hasn't it, this. This hour.
Alex
But it's all going to start up again pretty soon and you've still in the English council elections, you've still got some pretty significant councils to go there, some big kind of areas that Tories have held and some huge labor names and then Scotland and Wales.
Adam Fleming
Luke, thank you very much. Thank you, Alex. Thanks to you too.
Alex
Pleasure as ever.
Adam Fleming
So that was the newscast that we did live on BBC Sounds between 7 and 7:45 on Friday morning, rounding up the results we had at that point. So we're going to be giving you a second helping of newscast, which we will be recording on Friday night after the 10 o' clock news where we will round up what we know, because by then we will have pretty much all the results in from the English local authorities, the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senate. The picture will be very, very clear and the politics, I'm sure, will have developed. So speak to you then. Bye bye.
Alex
Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.
Chris Mason (Closing Remarks)
From one newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know and don't forget, you can email us anytime@newscastbc.co.uk or if you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on +4403301239480 be assured, I promise you listen to everyone.
Tristan Redman
What's actually happening inside Iran? I'm Tristan Redman, host of the Global Story podcast from the BBC. Iranians have been under a near total Internet blackout for several months. Few Western journalists have been permitted to operate in the country, but in recent weeks, the BBC's chief international correspondent, Lyse Doucet, has been reporting on the ground in Tehran. For more, listen to the global story on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.
BBC News | May 8, 2026
This live edition of BBC’s Newscast brings a brisk and revealing round-up of the initial local election results in England, with expert political analysis from host Adam Fleming and guests Chris Mason (BBC Political Editor), Alex Forsyth (BBC News), and pollster Luke Trill (More in Common). As the team digests the early numbers—and the evidence of major upsets—they explore the fragmentation of British party politics, the performance of key parties (Labour, Conservatives, Reform UK, Greens, Lib Dems), and the shifting sentiments across the nation. The episode is rich with real-time reactions, memorable metaphors, and listener questions, offering a “state of play” snapshot before Scotland and Wales counts begin.
Wigan: Labour lost all 22 seats they were defending in this historic stronghold, while Reform captured 24.
Hartlepool: Once a Conservative upset, now sees Reform making massive gains at Labour’s expense.
Newcastle-under-Lyme: Council switches from Conservative to Reform, marking a “stonking victory” and visualized by a “big slither of turquoise” (Reform’s color) on Luke’s election maps.
— Luke Trill [13:49], Alex [14:32]
Tactical Voting: Emergence of new tactical alliances — lifelong Labour or Lib Dem voters backing Tories to block Reform, and vice versa in select races.
On the Death of the Two-Party System:
On Labour’s Peril in Traditional Heartlands:
On Turnout & ‘Differential Turnout’:
On Voter Sentiment & Apathy:
On Labour’s Image & Leadership:
On New Patterns of Tactical Voting:
On Public Cynicism:
Political Reactions:
On the Drama of Counting Ballots:
This edition of Newscast captures a moment of historic turbulence in British politics, as traditional loyalties collapse and voters increasingly look to new parties and causes. The episode’s tone blends weary camaraderie (many panelists have been up all night) with sharp analysis, accessible explanation, and real audience engagement.
Listeners learn:
All eyes are now on the next wave of results from Scotland and Wales, and the final national tallies expected later in the day.
For real-time updates, listeners are invited to tune in to the next evening’s Newscast for the completed election panorama.