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Electioncast: The Winners And The Losers
00:37:28
Labour suffers historic losses across UK elections.
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This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK.
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Today's episode is sponsored by NerdWallet's Smart Money podcast. Ever Google a money question and end up 12 tabs deep with 12 different answers? This podcast is your shortcut back to clarity. NerdWallet's Smart Money podcast breaks down financial decisions with a team of trusted journalists. They explain the why behind decisions like investing, home buying and choosing credit cards with clear research backed insights. No jargon, no misinformation. Make your next financial move with confidence. Follow NerdWallet's Smart Money podcast on your favorite podcast app. Ever wonder why we make the choices we do and how to make smarter ones? Introducing Choiceology an original podcast from Charles Schwab Join Wharton Professor Katie Milkman, an award winning behavioral scientist and author of the best selling book how to Change, as she shares true stories from Nobel laureates, authors, athletes and everyday people about why we do the things we do and how to make better choices to help avoid costly mistakes. Each episode covers the latest research in behavioral science and dives into themes like the power of self control, shaping your mindset for success, navigating new beginnings and why starting over can feel so hard. Listen to Choiceologywab.com podcast or wherever you listen.
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Hello, Nearly all the results are in from what Laura Kuenberg christened Mega May in the English local authority elections. In the areas where there were local Authority Elections Reform UK have won more than 1,400 councillors. Labour were the big losers losing more than 1,300 of them. The Conservatives also lost 552 but they were big gains for the Greens and smaller gains from the Liberal Democrats. Then if we go to Scotland, the Scottish National Party was re elected as the government at Holyrood with 57 seats, so that's down six on the last Scottish Parliament election result and crucially leaves them short of of a majority. And then if we hop over to Wales, massive news there. Labour out of power for the first time in the devolution era which started in 1999, replaced as the government in Cardiff by Plaid Cymru. But they, like the SNP in Scotland, are also short of majority. So how Plaid Cymru will govern in Wales in this new era for that part of the UK we do not know. So oh and by the way, there's some rumblings amongst Labour MPs that maybe Keir Starmer should give a timetable for when he will quit Downing Street. So loads and loads to discuss on this second helping of newscast on Friday 8th May which follows hot on the heels of the Elections of Thursday 7 May. Newscast.
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Newscast. From the BBC.
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Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio.
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C
It is Chris at Westminster and it's
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James in Edinburgh and it is 41 minutes past 10 on Friday evening. Notice I did that 5 live time check style rather than radio 4 where it would be. It's 19 minutes to 11. James, can I just say, your studio that you've been using outside the Scottish Parliament is fan dabby dozy.
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D
Yeah, it's a nice looking, glamorous. Well, all the very talented people in here have made the studio look very nice, having a bow from our cameraman. And this was Kirsty Wark's studio. Really though, isn't it? It's not really mine, it's really Kirsty's but she's gone now. Everyone's gone now, to be honest, I
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A
was saying while I was watching it during Golden Hour tonight that it's. The lighting was more Hollywood than Hollywood.
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D
Yes, very good, very good, very good.
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A
Chris, I will not comment on the lighting in the cupboard that you're in. So, yeah, Chris, I last saw you about half past seven on Friday morning where we were digesting some. Some results that had come in from the English local authorities.
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C
Yeah.
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A
And actually, even though we hadn't got all the results, maybe not even half, the picture was becoming quite clear and we just got confirmation of that throughout the day, didn't we, in England?
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C
We did. Really? Yeah. So we are gathering again 15 hours later and I think, yeah, broadly speaking, in England, the trends that we were picking up from those results overnight continued, obviously, when we were speaking on Friday morning, we had no results at all from Scotland and Wales and they were always going to be a substantial part of the overall kind of Great Britain picture. And we got those results by what, around about tea time? Pretty much in both. In both instances. And so, yeah, as we sort of digest it and by the way, as we record, we are not yet finished, there are still seven English councils, principally in London and West Yorkshire to come on Saturday. And I think, James, I'm right in saying is that there's a little bit from. Is it the Highlands and Islands we're waiting for.
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D
So we're waiting for the. You know, as you know, there are two elements in Scotland. There's the constituency part of the election, 73 constituency MSPs, and then there's 56 on this regional list and they're elected by. Or different regional lists and they're elected by a system of proportional Representation, as we've discussed before, newscasters will be familiar, I'm sure, with the Dehont method, as we have discussed. And we're still waiting for the Highlands, and I'm not entirely sure why we're waiting for the Highlands. There was some checking of arithmetic to be done, I believe. Spendishly complicated, I'm told. De Hunt. I don't understand it.
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Victor. Victor De Hunt.
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Victor. There you go.
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C
From Ghent. From Ghent.
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Another great Belgian import. But just talking about England, are there any other notable things in England that we want to. So I'm thinking about things like the Greens winning the elected mayor of Hackney in East London, which is not, let's be honest, not a huge job in British politics, but a symbolic victory for them. And also, just think about it, another Green spokesperson with a job title that can go on the news quite.
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C
Yeah, it was a big breakthrough that they went on to win the council as well in Hackney, the mayor of Lewisham, the council in Waltham Forest and the council in Hastings, off the top of my head. And a substantial increase in Green councillors in plenty of other places with a concentration in London, but not exclusively in London as well. So they can point to a real bounce and clearly reform in so, so many places performing very, very well. And particularly striking, Adam, how well they've performed in places like Sunderland and Gateshead and South Tyneside and Wakefield and Barnsley, where you're looking in some instances there, at local authorities that have been Labour at Labour majorities at every single election going back to their formation in the 1970s and often earlier than that, in, in slightly different configurations, where, broadly speaking, in some of them, in fact. Let me pull up. I think Sunderland's a good example. I'm just going to type this into our little system here. So Reform previously had no seats, they gained 58. Labour previously had 54 seats, they lost 49. Just extraordinary. The Conservatives also lost nine. So it's where you're seeing, broadly speaking, certainly in seats terms, a straightforward switch from one to the other. You know, you take Barnsley, where perhaps the most successful and long standing Labour leader in Britain, Sir Steve Houghton, who had been the council leader there since John Major was Prime Minister. He became council leader in 1996. He'd been on the council, I think, since the late 80s. He held his seat, I think, by 23 votes today. But the Labour lost Barnsley and Reform have gained it again with substantial numbers. So you look at those and you think, wow, that is quite a thing. And it's not just in places like that, which were Labour leaning previously, but also places like Essex and Suffolk and others besides which were previously Conservative leaning. So fascinating to see how they've performed in England. That's before we get to the Welsh and Scottish picture for reform as well,
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and also reform and control in Havering, which is in East London. Far East London. Far East London, you know what I mean? And actually Reform's position is that Havering should be removed from Greater London and join up with Essex so we could have a Leave remain referendum in Havering.
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C
So outskirts of Tokyo, far and far east London.
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Because I'm in East Londoner and I think that's way further than me.
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C
It is on the edges of kind of, if you like, Greater London or however you want to define the sort of. Yes, and you're right, there is a keen argument in Havering about their geographical affinity, with some arguing that their instinct, their gut, their heart lies with Essex rather than with London. And this idea that you might have a. Yeah, there might be a referendum. I think Reform have said that were they to win a UK general election, they would offer Havering a referendum on leaving. On leaving London. There's other examples of it elsewhere, so.
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A
But also it sort of tells you something about the reform mindset, doesn't it? Like, oh, we don't want to be part of that London.
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C
Yeah. Yes. And I think not exclusively a reform mindset, you know, an argument, a view articulated by some, you know, within Havering who might have come to their sort of reform affiliations since, or maybe even have other affiliations. You see, occasionally in other places. There's been an argument in a part of West Yorkshire about whether Ilkley in West Yorkshire should be part of Bradford Council. So these things do occasionally happen where you might have a community that doesn't really regard itself as having an affinity, a political affinity, with the. The bigger entity to which it's been. It's been sort of glued politically.
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Right, let's carry on our tour around Great Britain. James. So, Scotland. Well, kind of as predicted, the SNP did the. What do we call it? What's the. Doing the double. But when it's five, doing the quintuple.
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Yeah.
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Fifth election victory in a row.
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Yes, the fifth election victory. There've only been seven elections in the devolution era, seven elections since 1999, and the S&P have won five of them. I suppose if you take a step back and think about it, that's pretty remarkable because devolution was a Labour project, you know, it was delivered by a Labour government. It was a project that they thought would, in the words, it is said of George Robertson, kill the SNP or kill nationalism stone dead. The former Labour grandee, former went on to be Secretary General of NATO. But it hasn't killed the SNP stone dead and it hasn't killed Scottish nationalism. Stone dead, indeed. The SNP have prospered through devolution. They've learned to use it. They've run the government here for a long time. That doesn't mean there haven't been problems. I mean, Adam, there have been, as we know, a lot of difficulties for the snp. They had a very turbulent period. They went through two first Ministers, Nicholas Sargent went. Hamza Youssef went. A power sharing arrangement with the Greens collapsed. There was a police investigation into the finances. There were a whole series of policy rows. John Swinney came in and said, look, I am two years ago, I am steadying the ship. And he says now that that work has basically paid off. But their share of the vote is down, their number of seats is down. They've fallen short of the goal he set and repeatedly talks about of the idea of an outright majority, 65, which, because of that electoral system we've discussed is very difficult to attain. Minority or coalition government are the norm here. And so he says it's an emphatic victory. But I think you could debate that,
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A
to be honest, also with reform, because there was a lot of talk about, oh, reform are actually going to do well in Scotland, considering what the received wisdom over the years about the challenges for them had been. Actually, they didn't win any seats under the first past the post bit of the electoral system. They got their. Their 15 seats on the proportional regional system.
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D
Yeah, but look, we're still waiting for that last count from the Highlands, so we don't. Exactly where that's going to land. Yeah, exactly where they're going to land. And exactly how bad it is for Labour and exactly how well of reform have done isn't clear. But, yes, I mean, they had hoped to pick up some, or maybe one constituency seat. They were particularly hopeful in Banffshire. Banffshire and Buchan Coast. It was easier when they just called it Banff and Buchan when Alex Salmond was the MP then, a long time ago. But they didn't win that. But they have picked. I mean, they came from nowhere, Adam. I mean, they didn't exist in any meaningful sense in Scottish politics until today. And now they very much do in a big way. Malcolm Offord is talking about, you know, how he's going to be the leader in Scotland. Lord offered how he's going to be shepherding his disparate bunch of MSPs and what they're going to be doing in the Parliament here, one thing they want to do is to campaign for tax cuts and cuts to welfare spending and cuts to immigration. They have a very distinct policy agenda as compared to some of the other parties in the Parliament.
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A
And if you look at the map, there's that big band of blue in the borders where the Conservatives have held on and that kind of looks pretty good for them. But then you realize there's lots of areas where they've lost seats because they lost 16 seats, didn't they? Yeah, and that reminds me a little bit of the Conservative performance in England in that they did pretty well in some kind of set piece councils in London, which disguises from the fact that actually they've had quite a lot of losses elsewhere.
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D
Yeah, I think that's right. I mean there's no, there's no two ways about it. This is a bad election for the Scottish Conservative Party and its leader, the former journalist Russell Findlay. I have to say on the eve of poll, when we're putting, I was sitting, putting the report together for the 10 o' clock news with my colleagues and we put in, you know, we're putting in the little clips and we put in the clip of Russell Finlay and all of us just said, he doesn't look very happy, does he? There's something wrong there. He doesn't. And you know, no wonder. But there's other people that are unhappy too. You know, the snp, it's not all triumph for them. They've lost, you know, some key seats. And Angus Robertson, a cabinet minister, was unseated himself in Edinburgh Central. I saw him yesterday. I drove past him, he didn't see me. He was driving his car and I thought he looks really worried. And well, he might have looked worried as it turned out. Cause he was defeated by the Greens who had a fantastic.
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A
He might have just seen a red light.
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D
Listen, to be fair, I think he was just like he was driving a car. I'm not reading, I'm over interpreting how worried he looked at that moment.
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A
Chris, do you know the link between Angus Robertson and Brexit cast? It's quite a personal link.
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C
Yes. Now hang on a minute. I think I do because did he not. He either studied in or was born in. He has a connection to Vienna, doesn't he?
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A
He and Katja Adler worked on Blue Danube radio together in their youth that's it, that's it.
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C
So I'm getting at least half a point for that.
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A
That's it, yes, definitely. Oh, let's get Paddy McGuinness on again. Also, James, just another thing about interesting results in Scotland alongside Angus Robertson, because he. The reason he lost his seat and is no longer a big hitter as an elected member of the SNP is because he got beaten by a Green. And this is the first time the Greens have won seats in the first past the post bit of the system.
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D
Yeah, the Greens are absolutely delighted. They're delighted about their win there and their win in Glasgow's south side. And both of those seats are very interesting because one was Angus Robertson, as you say, an SNP cabinet minister. Not only that, but he was defeated by the former co leader of the Greens, Lorna Slater, who was unceremoniously, along with her fellow co leader, chucked out of the power sharing arrangement by Hamza Yousef. So I mean she might. That that was a degree of sweet retribution. And the seat that they won in Glasgow used to belong until she stood down at this election to one Nicola Sturgeon.
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A
Yeah, lots of interesting things happening. Right, let's talk about Wales now, Chris. And it was interesting. I noticed your piece that you did on the 6 o' clock news, like the first kind of two minutes was all about Wales. Cause it was so significant.
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C
Yeah, it's always tricky, I think, particularly on days like this where I'm reminded sitting here at Westminster of the kind of multi nation state that the UK is, you know, what is the, the standout headline from these elections? Well, it clearly depends on where you are in the, in the uk. But if you're stepping back and trying to, if you like, pick the thing that most stands out then for me, partly because it came quite late in the day and that kind of drives the news value. But then secondly, I think just because of the, the scale of it was the result in Wales. Because Labour's pedigree of winning elections in Wales, as we've repeatedly said in the last couple of weeks, goes back a century. And then they lost and they lost and lost big time. And then into the mix you have Plaid Cymru, who one day would like to see an independent Wales being the biggest party. Renat Pureth will be the new first Minister of Wales, as we've discussed, because this outcome was certainly a possibility when he looked at the opinion polls in the last few weeks. We are soon going to have have first ministers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who simultaneously are holding Office and of the view that the long term future of their nations should be outside of the uk now, that doesn't mean, as we know, with all of the conversations that surround the constitutional question in Scotland, that that necessarily means there's a immediate and sharp question around the, the, you know, the, the UK being a rather different entity from the one it is right now. But I still think it's quite, it is quite a moment alongside that huge question that this defeat poses for labor because of the sort of in their bones psychology of Wales being just so core to the whole labor kind of idea in history, really. And right now it doesn't look a bit like that.
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A
And Eleanor Morgan, the outgoing First Minister who didn't even get re elected as a, as a member of the Senate in her constituency, she did a speech that will probably go down in history as Elenid Morgan's best bit of comms. So let's have a little listen to it.
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It is clear that results across the whole of the United Kingdom have demonstrated deep frustration with the Labour Party. We need to go back to being the party of the working class. We need the Labour government nationally to change course. We need the wealth of this nation to be more equally distributed away from the southeast. But I was always clear that this election was about Wales and Keir Starmer was not on the ballot. I am taking responsibility and I am resigning.
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A
And we'll talk about what other people have been saying about Labour in a second. Chris, but just that point about nationalist leaders being in charge in simultaneously Northern Ireland as a result of previous elections, the SNP being reelected this time and Ply Cymru being elected for the first time in Wales. Makes me think though, because of the electoral system that we've got and the choices made by the electorates in them, it's like it's nationalist. Ish.
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C
Yes.
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In that Ply Cymru don't have a majority. And as James was saying, John Swinney's pledge at the election was, oh, I'll do another push for independence if I get a majority. And he didn't get that either.
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C
Yeah, I think that is true. And it's worth pointing out that in Northern Ireland is a power sharing executive. There are two offices of equal stature, but one is the first minister and one is the. The deputy.
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A
That was my habits reference to the electoral system.
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C
Yeah. Reflecting the, the nature of the devolved settlement in Northern Ireland. And we should also say that Plaid Cymru's view and it's why I describe them as aspiring for an independent Wales at some point. Is that. It is, it is pointedly something they are not seeking to race towards. But ultimately, you know, if you sort of examined them as a kind of political stick of rock, all three of those First Ministers do, do think their nation, their communities would be better served outside the uk. And, you know, that is, that is, that is quite the. Quite the thing, I think.
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Certainly adds a bit more tension to the elastic that wraps the UK together.
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C
Yeah.
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James, what. What does John Sweeney actually have planned when it comes to constitutional questions?
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D
Well, I've been asking him about that, actually. I had quite a long chat with him earlier and I was saying to him, you know, you didn't get to that 65, you've fallen back in vote share, you've fallen back in seats. All right, there's a pro independence majority in the Parliament alongside the Scottish Greens. But, you know, in the campaign, he was at pains to say that it wasn't a pro independence majority, including the Greens, which would force the issue, it was an SNP majority. And, you know, SNP sources have been talking to, have been pointing out there's been a pro independence majority in the Parliament for quite a long time. If you add together the S and P and the Greens. So the question is now, what does he do with that? And he can, he has a couple of options, really. I mean, either he can steamroll her ahead and say, well, the Greens are with us, there's a pro independence majority here. I'm a Democrat, I'm going to make the case, I'm going to argue the case, or, and I think this is more likely, he'll have more of a subtle approach. I think he has to keep his key core supporters who voted for him for independence happy. And he's not going to say I'm giving up on the idea by any stretch of the imagination, but I think we will see him in the coming days and weeks saying, I have heard what you, the voters, have said about the importance to you of tackling the cost of living, of making life more affordable, of fixing the health service and in his key priority of bringing down poverty. And I think he will try to do what arguably the SNP did under Alex Salmond's first term from 2007 onwards, try to build then or rebuild now a reputation as a competent, stable government and use that as a platform to argue for independence. That is to say, I do not think he's going to be at the gates of Downing street demanding an immediate referendum, because I think he recognizes the reality of where the the public are, yes, support for independence is high at around 50%. But what pollsters talk about, of. They talk about salience, and the salience of independence has fallen away in the last few years as the issue that people want to be fixed right now. I'm not saying everybody, some people desperately want independence immediately, but that salience number has fallen. So I think there might be a more subtle approach to it. And also if he does that and tries to rebuild, and I'm not saying he can, and some people will say, you know, the SNP shouldn't have another go, and they've, you know, public services, they won't. They don't have a recovery plan that will work. And those debates will continue in the Parliament behind me here at Holyrood. But what happens if what we're seeing in England leads to, at the next general election, Nigel Farage as Prime Minister Poll suggests that would energise support for independence in Scotland. So maybe John Swinney's thinking, caw, canny, as they say here. Go steady, keep things calm, get to that point and then see where we are from his point of view.
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A
Yes. Let's go back to the story about what's happening with Labour. And we actually heard from the Prime Minister very early on, on Friday morning, just after we recorded the last episode of newscast. He clearly wants to sort of get this out the way quickly, and here's what he did.
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C
Let me be clear. These are really tough results. I'm not going to sugarcoat it. And we have lost brilliant Labour representatives, people who put so much into their communities, so much into our party and our movement. And the voters have sent a message about the pace of change, how they want their lives improved. May was elected to meet those challenges and I'm not going to walk away from those challenges and plunge the country into chaos.
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A
And then, Chris, bringing it right up to date, Keir Starmer's written for the Guardian and you just sent me the article. What's your take on what he's saying?
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C
Well, I'm just literally scanning it right now.
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A
Yeah, let's do this in real time,
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C
he says, I think this is the headline someone sent me on WhatsApp. So I'm trying to work out what's what here.
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A
We must respond to the message that voters have sent us. That doesn't mean tacking left or right. It means bringing together a broad political movement.
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C
I mean, that's curious in itself, because not tacking left or right might imply to some carrying straight on, which, you know, some in the Labour Party are wondering is wise. I don't mean that to sound perhaps as flippant as it might sound, but what else does he say? Acknowledges that it was a tough set of election results and that, as he puts it, brilliant colleagues and local leaders have lost will lead to much debate about the change in politics. He talks about political fragmentation and the cost of living. I'll keep reading and perhaps let you
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A
at the general election, we earned the mandate to deliver change, but we've not sustained the public's trust that we are doing enough.
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C
That's quite a way.
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A
And we've made unnecessary mistakes.
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C
Yeah, well, we must respond to the messages that voters have sent us. This is great podcasting, isn't it? That doesn't mean tacking left or right. It means bringing together a broad political movement, being assertive about our values, blah, blah, blah. Then he goes back and we've heard this argument before about the crisis after crisis, the 2008 financial crash, austerity, as he calls it, Brexit, Covid, the Ukraine war. People are desperate to not go back to the status quo. Sorry. Parties have been desperate to get back to the status quo, but the status quo isn't working. And then he talks about the dangers of Vladimir Putin and the need for
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A
a fair country, stronger country, a fairer country. That's the path I'll be setting out in the coming days and the work my government will lead in the months and years ahead. And my government in the years ahead.
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C
Yes, I'm. I'm not sure that's going to change the weather wildly with those MPs who are not convinced that he ought to last much longer as Labour's leaders. Prime Minister. It wouldn't be surprising, I think, if we hear from Keir Starmer in some sort of speech, some sort of event at the beginning of next week. And then we've got the King's speech, the state opening in Parliament on Wednesday, which is a proper kind of relaunch with all the, with all the bells and whistles we've counted up tonight. Adam, as we record at now 11 o' clock on Friday night, 20 Labour MPs who have public publicly called for the Prime Minister to go, some of whom said it for the first time today, some of the. Some of whom had said it before, quite a few of whom are talking about him setting out a timetable for his departure as opposed to suggesting that he ought to go right away. And at least some of them are rather keen on the idea of Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, being the being the next Prime Minister and of course he's going to take need time if he's going to make it back to Westminster because he's got to find a seat and then persuade Labour to let him run in the seat and then win the seat. And none of those things are guaranteed. And as we're recording, I see my colleague on our news desk, Emily has just put in one of our WhatsApp groups that Nick Hurdley, our colleague, has just interviewed Wes street incident. Now, the reason this is interesting is that loads of the Cabinet were putting on social media earlier how much they supported the Prime Minister and you should let him carry on etc, etc, in response to these MPs saying maybe you shouldn't. By the way, to put 20 into context, there's more than 400 Labour MPs but these are ones who are willing to say it publicly anyway. Wedge treating had not tweeted his support, but he has now spoken to Nick Eardley at the Redbridge Sports Centre. This is in East London where he's an MP and there's been accounts for the council. There's Keir Sammer will have my support, he says when he sets out on Monday how he intends to ensure our government can still deliver the change people voted for. We've got the message we can still deliver change. Labour can be the change people want to see. Has said Wes shooting and therefore he has, it would seem, said, well, he has. Keir Starmer will have my support.
- [29:13]
A
So no Wes Streeting leadership challenge over the next three days.
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C
That seems to be clear. I think from what I'm reading there, Ed Miliband, when he eventually tweeted, he wasn't one of the first out of the block. He didn't actually explicitly in his message say he saying he was backing Keir Starmer. I'm sure he and his team would say that he does, but he talked about how devastating the results were and then said, as Kia has said, we must go further in delivering the mandate for change that Labour won in 2024 and show how we will answer the call for change in our country. He doesn't quite, in as many words, say what Wes Streeting has said about the Prime Minister having his support. I know this sounds like ludicrous textual analysis, but this kind of stuff does matter in these moments as we try and unpick the solidity or not of the support for the Prime Minister in the upper echelons of the Westminster government.
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A
Right, let's unpick one more thing and this is one of my Favorite things on days like this. The projected national share.
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C
Oh, yes.
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A
So this is when Professor Sir John Curtis and his colleagues extrapolate the results from the elections in local authorities in England across the whole of Great Britain, as if everywhere was voting in the same local elections as the people that were voting yesterday. And then they come up with a, with a, a projection for how that would look UK wide or, yes, Great Britain wide. So it's not the same as saying, oh, if this was a general election, this is what would happen. It's not like that. It's, it's, it's more subtle than that. But it does give you an interesting kind of gist of where we are politically. And it shows Reform ahead of the pack on 26% of the vote, which maybe is not as high as sort of the hype of the last year or two would have suggested.
- [30:53]
C
It's down on where they were last year. And then you've got the Greens next on 18%, and then the Conservatives and
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A
Labour both on 17%, both down, and then the Lib Dems one point behind them on 16%. Which shows you that's a sort of four way tie for second place.
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C
Yeah. And I think it tells you two things. One is that Reform have a comfortable lead according to that projected national share, but it also tells you that none of them are wildly popular. And of course, because it is a projected national share across Great Britain, it doesn't account for the substantial support in Scotland and Wales that the SNP and Plaid Cymru respectively have, which has a dynamic clearly in devolved elections as we've seen today, but has a dynamic at general elections as well.
- [31:41]
A
And of course, James, you're used to covering this multi party political system at Holyrood and have done for years, people covering English local authorities will have to, to get used to it. It will have a different flavour from the flavour it used to have in Wales. And of course, all of this is very different from the political makeup of the House of Commons, where there is an enormous Labour majority, which is basically the opposite of what's happened everywhere today.
- [32:06]
D
Yeah. And you sort of forget about the enormous Labour majority, don't. You're like, oh no, they do have an enormous majority, not that you would necessarily know it, they do not have an enormous majority here. In fact, and I should have thought about this earlier and said this earlier, but I was just double checking, but it is obviously the case. This is Labour's worst performance since devolution. Did I say that at the start? Oh, I forget Now, I've been up
- [32:32]
A
a long time, three and four.
- [32:33]
D
Anyway, this is.
- [32:34]
A
I don't think you did.
- [32:35]
D
I don't think you did. I don't think it did. This is Labour's worst performance in the entire devolution era since 1999. And actually, if you look at their seat total from 99 onwards, it's gone down every single election. Labour clearly has a really serious problem in Scotland, a long term serious, serious problem for a party that has, in some respects its roots in Scotland, its roots in the old, you know, industrial heartlands of this country, in the Labour movement. And yet it has struggled for years and years and years and it just seems to get worse. I mean, is Anas Sarwar going to stay on as leader? Wouldn't bet on it.
- [33:18]
A
Well, we shall see. And I think the theme of the next couple of days, Chris, is going to be, yeah, the, the shakedown in Labor.
- [33:25]
C
Yeah. And seeing how, yeah, how this party, how this movement responds when it's had, you know, a collective night's sleep or two as it looks ahead to what the Prime Minister might say on Monday and how people may choose to respond to that. And then the King's speech after that. What does the Prime Minister do himself? Does he consider shaking up his top team? Does he think he has the political capital to do it? Would that be arguably a case study in the kind of disruption that he suggests he doesn't want to be the author of. But then if it helped he. If he concluded it helped sustain him in office, then, then, then perhaps, yeah, it's going to be a really interesting couple of days. And particularly, as I say, with that King's speech just around the corner, you won't necessarily see Westminster FL with MPs between now and Wednesday when the King's speech is happening, which is perhaps no bad thing if you're in Downing Street. An additional, perhaps contributor to deciding it would be a good idea to schedule the King's speech for the week after these elections, for that kind of reset moment. And then we're going to get those, you know, significant moments in Wales. The arrival tomorrow, Saturday morning, Saturday lunchtime, I think it is, of the phalanx of new plied CYMRU members of the Senate gathering for a photo call outside. And within the next few days, the whole process of them beginning to form what would appear to be, I suspect, a minority government rather than anything more formal. And then all of the history and precedent that comes, as James has been saying, with the Scottish National Party heading in for another term. In devolved government at Holyrood. So there'll be interesting things to. To watch and to mark in Holyrood at the cennith and here at Westminster.
- [35:14]
D
And I should say, Adam, that just in total fairness to Labour, I'm talking about their vote share going down, or rather their seats going down, every single Hollywood election, they clearly have shown the ability to bounce back, not least a couple of years ago at the general election. I mean, two years ago it was a completely different picture and there was a great surge of optimism in the Labour Party and. And they jumped up to 37 seats from one. And as Sarwar really was on track to be first minister and so you can see why he's really annoyed and why he called for the Prime Minister to quit in February, thinking maybe this is my only hope here, because it does seem that he has been dragged down by the fortunes of the UK government and the deep unpopularity of secure.
- [35:59]
C
And on that point, actually, perhaps as a sort of final thought, it's speaking to folk from all sides here at Westminster today, what they all will acknowledge with a certain humbleness really, is that volatility can cut in all sorts of different directions remarkably quickly. Our politics of recent years at every level rather illustrates that. And why should we assume that this is the end of it? And so, yeah, who knows? Who would have predicted a couple of years ago we would be where we are now? So who on earth would predict where we might be in a couple of years from now?
- [36:37]
A
And I realize I have misused a word yet again, it's not a weekly occurrence. So I said shakedown in the Labour Party. I've just checked, that's technically extortion, as of blackmail. And what I actually meant was shake out, which is a rapid, dramatic restructuring of an industry or market resulting in the elimination of weaker companies or investors.
- [36:56]
C
I'm glad we clarified.
- [36:57]
A
So I meant shake out of the Labour Party. And a potential shakeout, not a definitive shakeout. So if Susie Dent from Dictionary Corner wants to write in to complain, I've saved her the trouble. Chris, good to see you at both ends of the day. And James, thank you for sitting in your big budget, beautifully lit studio for us.
- [37:15]
C
Actually, James, before you go, I've got a question for you because a colleague sent me this. Yeah, yeah, a colleague sent me a picture of you. I'm just gonna find it. I was sent it on social media. Hang on a minute. I'm just gonna find it on my own.
- [37:25]
D
Oh, no, this sounds worrying. What is it?
- [37:26]
C
Someone sent a picture. Picture of you and it was you interviewing the. The SMP leader, John Swinney, with the caption. You could hear someone whispering in London with that because you are holding the world's most giant microphone.
- [37:40]
D
Oh, yes, the big fluffy. That's a Sennheiser 416.
- [37:44]
C
Is it really?
- [37:44]
D
For those who are interested, it's like a giant roundant. Big, big Fluffy. It's a lovely microphone.
- [37:50]
A
A lot to handle, though.
- [37:52]
D
Indeed, Adam.
- [37:53]
A
And they are very dangerous when you're filming around dogs.
- [37:57]
D
Oh.
- [37:57]
C
Because they love it.
- [37:58]
D
Dogs love them. They do.
- [37:59]
A
As we all know that you're going fox hunting. Right. That is definitely it for this episode of Newscast. And there will be further episodes of Election Cast covering the shakeout in the Labour Party and other political developments in various parts of the United Kingdom with Laura and Paddy over the weekend. So please do keep them company. Bye bye.
- [38:18]
C
Bye bye. Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.
- [38:23]
D
From one newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode.
- [38:28]
C
You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina.
- [38:33]
D
Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know and don't forget, you can email us anytime@newscastbc.co.uk or if
- [38:45]
C
you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on +4403301239480. Be assured, I promise we listen to everyone.
- [39:08]
D
Long shifts, full days.
- [39:10]
C
Post people keep showing up. Post university offers flexible online nursing nursing programs. Become a post person. Keep moving forward. Learn more at post. Eduardo.