Is the US-Iran War Restarting?

Summary

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Newscast (BBC News)

Episode: Is the US-Iran War Restarting?

Release Date: May 5, 2026
Main Contributors: Adam Fleming (host), Catriona Perry (Washington correspondent), Simon Jack (Business editor), Alex Forsyth (Political correspondent), Lucy Manning (Special correspondent), Prime Minister Keir Starmer (quotes), Dan Kane (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, US), Pete Hegseth (US Secretary for War)

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Episode Overview

This episode of Newscast tackles two of today's most significant stories:

1. The escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of renewed US-Iran conflict, particularly around US-led efforts to reopen vital shipping lanes via “Project Freedom.”
2. The UK’s response to rising antisemitism, including a government summit at Downing Street and new societal initiatives.

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Segment 1: Strait of Hormuz in Crisis – Is the US-Iran War Restarting?

[01:14–17:46]

Main Discussion Points

• Project Freedom:

  • The US, under President Trump, has launched "Project Freedom" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a critical shipping route currently crippled by US and Iranian blockades amidst ongoing conflict.
  • Officially a “humanitarian mission,” aiming to evacuate some 22,500 stranded mariners on more than 1,500 commercial vessels, while also unblocking oil supply bottlenecks and stabilizing global markets. [03:05–04:03]
  • US is keen to distinguish this from military operations such as "Operation Epic Fury."

• International Realities and Political Optics:

  • The US has allowed two American-flagged ships through, but commercial shippers and insurers remain unconvinced it’s safe—reflecting skepticism over both rhetoric and actual results.
  • High insurance premiums (from ~$40,000 to over $1 million per ship), physical risks, and lack of clear practical protocols stymie wider shipping resumption. [05:51–06:59]

• Continued Danger & Economic Impact:

  • Actual shipping volume remains near zero compared with pre-crisis days (from about 130 ships per day to maybe two).
  • Major shortages for global commodities, especially oil, jet fuel, and fertilizer (one-third of seaborne fertilizer passes through the strait).
  • Uncertainty is causing unstable oil pricing, with traders unsure whether prices will soar to $150+ a barrel or drop below $60 if the crisis resolves. [08:10–09:09]

• Washington’s Political Calculations:

  • Project Freedom is meant to appear humanitarian and non-war-like ahead of US midterm elections.
  • US trying to decouple the Strait crisis from direct military escalation with Iran and nuclear negotiations, but fundamentally everything remains “interlinked”—from ceasefire draft proposals (via Pakistan) to nuclear issues and indirect US-Iran-Israel diplomacy. [09:15–11:45]
  • Domestic US politics are deeply influenced by global oil markets: gasoline prices nearing $5 per gallon are highly unpopular. [11:46–12:29]

• Diplomatic Gamesmanship:

  • The new “war aim” may be scaled down merely to reopening the strait, sidestepping the larger, more intractable issues (regime change, nuclear disarmament). [12:29–14:14]
  • Possibility of international unity around "freedom of navigation,” versus the divisive prospect of regime change.
  • Simon Jack floats the satirical scenario of a US-Iran "toll booth" at the Strait—Adam Fleming retorts such a system would violate international law. [14:48–15:23]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “The US says there are about 22 and a half thousand mariners stranded on more than 1,500 commercial vessels.”
  – Catriona Perry [03:19]

• “Getting two through in 24 hours means for commercial and economic purposes, this strait is still shut.”
  – Simon Jack [06:53]

• “Even with a US security guarantee, the most powerful military in the world… still not enough to tick all those boxes.”
  – Adam Fleming [06:59]

• “What worries a lot of people are things like fertilizer. One third of seaborne fertilizer goes through that strait... that’s billions of meals lost.”
  – Simon Jack [08:05]

• “If a deal can be done… box ticked, here’s a deliverable, the oil will start flowing, but even then, it’ll be months before prices come back.”
  – Catriona Perry [12:52]

• "Freedom of navigation is a cause lots of other countries can sign up to, whereas regime change in Iran is a cause that lots of countries cannot."
  – Adam Fleming [14:14]

Memorable Lighter Moment

• The Kamikaze Dolphins Rumor:
  • Pete Hegseth and Dan Kane (Joint Chiefs) humorously field a press question about rumored "kamikaze dolphins" being used for mine clearance. Kane replies: "I can't confirm or deny whether we have kamikaze dolphins, but I can confirm they don't." [15:55–16:01]
  • Reference to "sharks with laser beams" sparks laughter, with Catriona Perry quipping, "Watch out for the octopus with machetes because they are particularly lethal." [16:18]
  • Adam Fleming observes the moment typifies “the crazy times where reality and fiction are blurring.” [17:15]

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Segment 2: UK Antisemitism Summit – Crisis and Community Response

[21:50–39:02]

Main Discussion Points

• UK’s “Crisis of Security” for Jews:

  • Rising anti-Jewish attacks and pervasive fear and anger within British Jewish communities, especially after recent assaults and synagogue attacks.
  • Lucy Manning highlights deep frustration: “There was definitely a sense of fear... after [recent] incident[s]... there was a real sense that not enough had been done.” [22:42–23:52]

• Demands from Jewish Communities:

  • Calls for better security at Jewish buildings, government funding for ongoing protection, and a crackdown on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
  • Strong opinions on pro-Palestinian marches, perceived by many in the Jewish community as breeding grounds for antisemitism.
  • “They don’t want to live behind high walls... building higher walls doesn’t solve the problem.”
    – Lucy Manning [24:01–24:34]

• The Downing Street Summit:

  • PM Keir Starmer’s government assembled cabinet ministers, university leaders, police, and arts figures for a broad response—a “whole of society” strategy—aimed at tackling both direct security threats and societal intolerance. [26:03–27:24]
  • Starmer’s message:

    “Every part of society has a responsibility... because there are too many people who don’t see antisemitism for what it is: anti-Jewish hatred, racism, pure and simple.” [27:24]

• Societal vs. Government Responsibility:

  • Debate over whether spreading responsibility across society diffuses governmental accountability or is genuinely necessary given the multi-layered nature of the threat.
  • Concrete measures announced: universities expected to publish data on antisemitic incidents and their responses; the Arts Council to withdraw funding from organizations enabling bigotry. [30:38–31:50]
  • Phil Rosenberg (Board of Deputies): Praise for the “protect, prosecute, partner” approach. [32:27–32:45]

• Deepening Insecurity:

  • Jewish communities circulate a ‘game’ suggesting which country to move to if they left the UK—a sign that concern and anger are giving way to genuine anxieties about long-term safety. [32:45–34:02]

• Connection to Iran:

  • Ongoing police investigations into possible Iranian state involvement in UK attacks; government fast-tracking IRGC proscription and legislation in response to new threats. [34:02–35:39]
  • Increasing apprehension regarding Iran’s proxy activities in the UK and calls for swift, decisive action.

• The Impact on Ultra-Orthodox Jews:

  • Heightened fear for visibly Jewish communities; stories of abuse, assaults, and the shattering of previously safe spaces like Golders Green. [36:44–39:02]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “For a long time people have ignored it [antisemitism]... even when it started being more mainstream... still not enough action was taken.”
  – Lucy Manning [23:14]

• “You can build the walls higher and higher and it doesn’t solve the problem.”
  – Lucy Manning [24:01]

• “A feeling that in businesses, public sector areas, the arts community, [when] anti-Semitism has raised itself, not enough has been done.”
  – Lucy Manning [25:14]

• “This wasn’t just a message. There were some specific things in there... universities expected to publish the scale of anti-Semitism... Arts Council to withdraw public funding...”
  – Alex Forsyth [31:30]

• “[Community members are] annoyed with themselves that they thought they could go out being visibly Jewish.”
  – Lucy Manning [38:00]

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Additional Informational Moments

• UK Financial Markets:
  • Simon Jack provides a quick primer on rising UK government debt yields (30-year yields above 5% for the first time since 1998) and the implications for mortgages and borrowing costs, linking back to the global economic impact of the strait crisis. [17:54–21:03]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Project Freedom & Strait of Hormuz: [01:14–17:46]

  • Insurance, Maritime Risks: [05:51–06:59]
  • Economic Fallout: [07:40–09:09]
  • Political calculations & endgame: [09:47–14:14]
  • “Kamikaze dolphins” moment: [15:42–16:50]

• UK Antisemitism Summit and Community Voices: [21:50–39:02]

  • Jewish community anger, security: [22:32–25:51]
  • Downing Street summit & new policies: [26:03–32:45]
  • Iran’s suspected involvement: [34:02–35:57]

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Overall Tone

• Informative, urgent, at times wry and self-aware, with humor used to break tension (“kamikaze dolphins”).
• Direct quotes, detailed insider commentary, and reflective responses, especially regarding societal impact.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode presents a deep, multi-layered analysis of two critical, interlinked global crises.

• On geopolitics: It delivers rare, ground-level insights on the practical, economic, and diplomatic consequences of the Hormuz blockade—and the limits of American military and diplomatic power.
• Domestically: It explores the extraordinary pressures facing UK Jewish communities and the government's shift toward a “whole of society” approach, while airing the tensions, emotions, and real-world consequences rooted in both crisis management and societal trust.

Memorable takeaway:
The world's most powerful actors—be it the US military or the UK government—are confronting crises where old solutions no longer guarantee results, and both require society-wide buy-in to restore either security at sea or safety at home.

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Transcript

[Adam Fleming]

Hello. Hope you had a good Bank Holiday weekend. And if you had Bank Holiday Monday off listening to podcasts and episodes of Newscast, well, I've got a treat for you. Chris and I at cast fest on 25 April recorded an episode themed around Shout out to My Brecks, which was us reliving, almost in real time, the Brexit referendum, which happened 10 years ago now. Well, the referendum campaign happened 10 years ago now. The actual vote was in June. But if you would like to hear me and Chris reliving all those momentous events from 2016 when Leave went head to head against Remain, you can listen to that bonus episode, which is called Shout out to My Brecks, which is in the newscast feed right now and which we popped in there on Bank Holiday Monday. And if you did listen to it on Bank Holiday Monday, because your newscasting never takes a break, then I hope you enjoyed it. And we're now back with a classic

[Alex Forsyth]

episode of Newscast, Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.

[Simon Jack]

Humanity's next great voyage begins.

[Adam Fleming]

We are in the midst of a rupture.

[Lucy Manning]

Nostalgia will not bring back the old order.

[Simon Jack]

Six, seven. Yeah, it's supposed to be me.

[Adam Fleming]

As a doctor Daddy has. Has also a special connotation.

[Alex Forsyth]

Ooh la la.

[Prime Minister (Keir Starmer)]

Thinking about it like a panto helped.

[Alex Forsyth]

Do we play music now or what do we do?

[Adam Fleming]

Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio. And shortly I'll be joined by some of our BBC reporting colleagues to talk about a summit on anti Semitism that took place in Downing street on Tuesday morning. But first of all, we're back to our old conundrum of is the Strait of Hormuz open or not? This crucial lane for global shipping, for oil, gas, and as we've discovered, lots of other important ingredients to global supply chains is in American minds now, kind of open, because they've launched Project Freedom, which is basically an American security guarantee for international shipping to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This was also accompanied by some confusing reports over the weekend about Iranian claims to have hit a US ship in the Strait of Hormuz, which were then very quickly denied by the White House. So where on earth have we got to with this crucial bit of water? The people can help us try and work it out. One of them is here in the studio. It's the BBC business editor, Simon Jack. Hi, Simon.

[Simon Jack]

Hello, Adam.

[Adam Fleming]

And Catriona Perry's on the line from Washington. Hello, Katrina.

[Catriona Perry]

Hello, Adam.

[Adam Fleming]

Katrina, just a little bit of local news. You're not in the Washington podcasting studio, are You I'm not.

[Catriona Perry]

Because we had a massive flood. We had a burst pipe. So we're on the top floor of a building, and something happened up on the roof, and there was no rain or anything at the time, so it's a bit of a mystery. But anyway, there were sheets of water coming down the walls of the podcast studio and a couple of inches of water on the floor, so it's completely destroyed. So I'm in a radio studio with some strategically placed potted plants behind me.

[Adam Fleming]

Okay, well, good luck with the refurb. Now, talking about things to do with well water and unclear situations, explain to me what the US Government thinks. Project Freedom is in the Strait of Hormuz.

[Catriona Perry]

What a wonderful segue there, Adam. Well done. Well, Project Freedom, according to President Trump, is basically a humanitarian mission, and it's about freeing up the Strait of Hormuz in order to let all the stranded ships and sailors get from where they are basically in or out and get home, and also to try and free up the oil supply, which we know has been strangled now for a couple of months because of the war in Iran and the dueling blockades that are there, the U.S. blockade and the Iranian blockade. Now, the U.S. says there are about 22 and a half thousand mariners stranded on more than 1500 commercial vessels. So that's its kind of impetus and its incentive for this Project Freedom, which it says is entirely different to Operation Epic Fury.

[Adam Fleming]

And they're pitching this as a humanitarian thing to help stranded sailors with the byproduct that it might help the global economy.

[Catriona Perry]

Yes, exactly. Which is very generous of the US to do this, considering that President Trump has been complaining for months now that his allies wouldn't step up and help allies who were much worse, you know, had suffered much worse impacts from this than the US has, because we know, of course, Asian countries and European countries are really struggling. The whole world is struggling with the price of oil, but in particular, there are supply issues there. We've already seen airlines cutting flights, cutting routes because there's a jet fuel shortage as well. So the president is kind of doing this to help get all that moving again, he says.

[Adam Fleming]

And Pete Hegseth, who calls himself the Secretary for War, was doing a briefing on Tuesday morning in Washington, and he made it sound like this has already been an enormous success.

[Catriona Perry]

Yeah, two ships have sailed through. So it depends on how you define success, I guess.

[Adam Fleming]

1550.

[Catriona Perry]

Yeah. And those two were US flag carriers. And, I mean, the fact of the matter is that the US Says an area is clear But Iran says this is a breach of the ceasefire and it's prepared to fire on anything moving there. And it has been doing that. And then you have really. The big question is these ships that are stranded, there are commercial vessels. So you need the insurance, you need the safety, you need all of that in place. And as long as there is an active firing situation in the region, you know what captain of a ship, what company is going to let its ship move out of position, even though the conditions on board, we're told, for some of these sailors, are really getting quite desperate at this point.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. Now, over to you, Simon. You've been chatting to lots of people in the maritime world about the reality of this.

[Simon Jack]

Sure, yeah. I mean, basically, as Katrina says, the ship owners will tell you, I'm not taking a chance on this because my crew safety is my overriding concern. The insurers will say, listen, you can get insurance, but it's very expensive. For example, it would usually cost around $40,000 to ensure a ship to go through the Strait of Hormuz. It's now over a million dollars, so 25 times the price. But to be honest, it's not even that that's stopping it, get through it. Getting through. It's the idea that their ships will be hit and their crew will be put in jeopardy. And so basically, there's two ships. One of them, Maersk, was owned by Maersk. They confirmed it did go through. But as you say, it's only two ships. American flagships, there's been a trickle of Iran friendly boats getting through. Iranian vessels themselves, actually owned by Iran, have been subject to the U.S. version of the blockade. But at its normal times, you've got over about 130 vessels going through every day. So getting two through in 24 hours means that for commercial and economic purposes, this strait is still shut.

[Adam Fleming]

And even with a US security guarantee, the most powerful military in the world, who've got a real incentive to make this work? Still not enough to tick all those boxes.

[Simon Jack]

Well, it's very interesting. We had talking to one ship owner who said, the thing is, I just need to know practically how this is going to work. This red, white and blue dome, as Pete Hesketh has described it. He's like, who do I call, what telephone number do I ring up to find out which route I'm supposed to take, where my escort is, what am I going? I don't know any of those practical details. So I think in terms of the. It's quite big on rhetoric. A lot of this stuff but in terms of practical details of how to actually even use it, if it did work, I think a lot of people are still scratching their heads and I

[Adam Fleming]

suppose politically and diplomatically, lots of the other countries who are receiving end of Donald Trump's ire for not stepping in and solving this themselves are kind of being vindicated by this because it's not as simple as it looks.

[Simon Jack]

No, I mean, I, I think that the problem is, is that we still don't have a credible way of, of sorting this out. And you'll remember the first time we started talking about it, I know you've been talking about it for, with lots of other people as well. We were saying, you know, three to four weeks maybe, if it goes on a months, then it starts to get. We've now entered our third month of this where it's been effectively shut. And as Katrina was saying, you've got big jet fuel shortages, particularly in Asia. And it's beginning to. The thing that worries a lot of people are things like fertilizer. One third of fertilizer, seaborne fertilizer, goes through that straight and that's going to show up in billions of meals, one fertilizer manufacturer told me last week, are going to be lost. And so, you know, there's no credible way of getting this sorted now. And the longer this goes on, the more acute those get those things become. Having said that, oil prices are sort of hovering in the middle now. What I'm hearing is that Nobody thinks that 110 to $115 for a barrel of oil is the right price. It's either 150 or it's 60. So there is a world in which this gets sorted and oil prices snap back to $60 or even lower and there's a world in which it's 150 plus.

[Adam Fleming]

But this is a kind of phone

[Simon Jack]

price, kind of phony hovering in the middle kind of price. And no one thinks, thinks that is the right price for oil right now.

[Adam Fleming]

And Katrina, this is a very difficult question because it involves lots of moving parts. But where does this Project Freedom kind of humanitarian red, white and blue dome, whatever you want to call it, where does that fit in with the other pieces which are military action against Iran by the US which is on hold for now, and negotiations between Iran and the US with Israel sort of involved, which I don't know if they are on hold right now or happening in secret or happening in a low key way. How are all those pieces fitting together, do you think?

[Catriona Perry]

Well, this is the really interesting part of all of this, because the US Is trying to separate out this Project Freedom from everything else that you've described there. And I think that's because the President, the administration have an eye on the domestic situation here in the US Calling something Project Freedom rather than Operation Epic Fury sort of sense a lot more palatable puts the US in a sort of we're trying to solve the world's problems kind of way, not in a I'm getting into a forever war situation. All of which kind of problematic when you're heading into the midterms. There's lots of primaries happening at the moment, a lot of people are under pressure, but you can't separate these things out. Right? Because Iran has basically discovered through these last few months that the Strait of Hormuz is that sort of pressure point that it can keep needling. And the US it gets a reaction from it. It's attaching of course, this is central to the ceasefire proposals that have been discussed. We got the latest draft, a 14 point plan from Iran via Pakistan to the US over the weekend that's in there. It's interlinked with nuclear capabilities, inspections and so on. So you can't separate this out, even though that is what the US Is trying to do. And the question that we've been asking since the very first hour of all of this back in the wee hours of that Saturday morning at the end of February is how do you get out? What is the off ramp? If the US can clear the Strait of Hormuz, where does that leave everything else? Because what we've seen from this administration in the last couple of weeks is they really do not wantand the President in particular really does not want to go back to what they call that kinetic part of warfare where they are actively firing bombs into the middle of Iran and you're potentially stepping that up with ground troops and so on and all of this stuff that is just very not palatable to a domestic audience

[Simon Jack]

in the U.S. i tell you what else isn't palatable to a domestic U.S. audience. Gasoline prices at $4.30 a gallon, which is they topped 5 back during the 2022, Russia, Ukraine, when that because it's normally like half of our under $3 usually and it's now 4, 43450 and it's on target to hit $5. So when America says we don't even need to do this because we're energy self sufficient, we're doing that's the goodness of our heart and what have you, they're not unconnected and not unmolested, if you like, by what's going on in the oil market. And if there's one thing American voters are super sensitive to, it's gasoline prices, because they see them every day and they fill them up, fill them up every day. And they're very dependent on.

[Adam Fleming]

Although Katrina, I do now wonder if actually the ultimate final war aim, the completion of which means that it can all be declared over, is now reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Forget regime change, forget the nuclear program, forget de arming Iran's proxies. It might just end up being this. And I say, I don't mean just as in like it's very easy to achieve, but it means solely this.

[Catriona Perry]

Well, that's the question that I've been putting to Trump administration officials for the last couple of weeks, really, is has this gone from a war with Iraq to really a battle over the Strait of Hormuz, a game of battleships, essentially, whose ships are blockading where and who can remove which mines. And you know, the Secretary Hegsett saying this morning they were hoping to clear two channels, like a channel in and a channel out. And I do think the president is moving into a space where if a deal can be done that he can say, you know, box ticked, here's a deliverable the oil will start flowing, the prices will start coming down. But of course, as oil experts and those involved in hedging energy and so on will tell you, even if this was all resolved tomorrow, all of those boats came out, you're still looking at a few months, if not longer, before the prices come back. And that puts you more or less well beyond those midterm elections before people start seeing back to normal pricing. We've even had an admission of that from cabinet secretaries as well, that it will be well into next year.

[Adam Fleming]

I'm just now playing battleships in my head not to pass the time, Jake. Boom. I mean, in a diplomatic term, I don't know what the diplomatic version of battleships is. I mean, I'd buy it if you could. It's probably actually diplomacy the game, isn't it?

[Simon Jack]

Oh, yeah, I remember that one.

[Adam Fleming]

Four days to play. But actually, if this does end up being like the US prime aim, then actually it's something that other countries can get on board with because Starmer and Macron have already been working on their coalition of the willing to reopen the Strait of horror movies and what they can all do practically to contribute to that. And as we we saw a few months ago, the international laws of the sea Freedom of navigation is a cause lots of other countries can sign up to, whereas regime change in Iran is a cause that lots of countries cannot sign up to. So you suddenly realize, oh, this is a thing people could unite around and kind of all get on with doing.

[Simon Jack]

But if you step back and you sort of say regime change is not on the list, we don't need that nuclear capability, I think that's quite a difficult one to strike off the list of things that they wanted to achieve because that was the one thing that a lot of people.

[Adam Fleming]

Unless you kick it into a process.

[Simon Jack]

Yeah, okay. Yeah. And then also. But then you, I suppose that one, one version of events is that you have a U. S. Iran run toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Gets a cut, Iran gets a cut. And you call it something like the Iran reconstruction, you know, reconciliation and reconstruction,

[Adam Fleming]

which the rest of the world wouldn't be able to get on board with because that would be a breach of international law, which is freedom of navigation.

[Simon Jack]

Yeah, true.

[Adam Fleming]

Right. Other brainstorming Katrina help and this exchange between journalists and Pete Hegseth and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane about the subject of kamikaze dolphins.

[Catriona Perry]

Can you kind of clarify these reports of kamikaze dolphins that we've heard about?

[Simon Jack]

I haven't heard the kamikaze dolphin thing.

[Adam Fleming]

It's like sharks with laser beams. Right.

[Dan Kane]

And I can't confirm or deny whether we have kamikaze dolphins, but I can confirm they don't.

[Adam Fleming]

Ultimately,

[Dan Kane]

any follow on effort if there are mines identified would be something that some of our units could undertake or the world could undertake. But right now we know we have a lane of safe passage that commercial shipping can flow through.

[Adam Fleming]

Katrina.

[Catriona Perry]

Well, I would just say you should watch out for the octopus with machetes because they are particularly lethal. But all jokes aside, it's kind of hard to take this one on seriously. It goes back to reports from actually several years ago that Iran was looking into weaponizing dolphins. It's hard to say this one with the stray face because I mean, it doesn't.

[Adam Fleming]

Unless you're an animal lover. It's horrendous anyway.

[Catriona Perry]

Yeah, and Dan Kane there talking about the sharks with the laser beams is an awesome reference. Name that movie. So he's not taking it seriously either. So I think it's just a sign of, you know, the crazy, crazy, crazy times where we live at the moment that reality and fiction are blurring.

[Adam Fleming]

Unfortunately, I read Hegseth's response in two ways. One is the classic way of we just don't comment on our capabilities because we don't want our enemies getting any clues. And if that's your policy, then if you're asked something like kamikaze dolphins, you gotta stick to the policy CEO. If we don't comment on our capabilities and also just. He's the kind of guy that you think would think kamikaze dolphins are cool even if they're not achievable militarily or logistically. It's quite a fun idea because the Hegseth gang, they trade on that sort of memeable stuff.

[Simon Jack]

I remember when was it Vance who said there are a lot of tools in our toolbox that we are yet to use. Maybe this is what he was talking about.

[Adam Fleming]

Simon, then your other curveball question. UK guilt yields. So the price. And don't sign.

[Simon Jack]

No, I'm not sign.

[Adam Fleming]

Rachel Reeves.

[Simon Jack]

Rachel re sign.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. So the amount that the, that the UK pays for its debts, the government pays for its debts to, to, because a huge chunk of its spending is funded by borrowing, that does on the markets today.

[Simon Jack]

Yeah.

[Adam Fleming]

Tell me why that's a sable thing at the moment.

[Simon Jack]

So, yeah, this is the, the amount of money the government has to pay in interest in order to get the rest of the world to lend it money. And we've seen the 30 year yield, the price of that borrowing go above 5% for the first time since 1998, I believe. Yes, 1998, 28 years. And obviously when you have high energy prices, that very pervasive effect, it gets into inflation, which then pushes up the price of everything. It then makes interest rate rises more likely than falls, and that basically pushes up the cost of borrowing. So we've gone above the sort of psychologically important 5% level. Now on the one hand, that's an absolute, an absolute disaster because they were already spending an awful lot of money on interest payments on the outstanding debt, which is around 100% of national income now, just below. So, yeah, it's not something that the Chancellor will, will be very pleased about. Are they panicking? You know, I've been talking to some of my colleagues who've been talking to the bank of England and to the treasury and others. And what the bank of England has said is, look, listen, if, if the UK was, if this was a crisis, then the pound would be under a lot of pressure as well. So that's the other indicator about whether people on, you know, you as a, as a credit, as a country, and that is, let's say, pretty, pretty stable.

[Adam Fleming]

So it's because people who own pounds on the international markets sell them, would sell them.

[Simon Jack]

So if, if they, if they lost faith in the UK's economic viability, then you would see a big fall in the pound as well. So although this is a concern for sure, it doesn't represent a crisis.

[Adam Fleming]

And also mortgage rates are based on things like the 30 year gilt price rather than the actual bank of base rate. Yes. So that's why this matters to people's household finances.

[Simon Jack]

It does matter because yeah, it's not, I mean the correlation, it's actually they price it off two year swap rates actually. But I'm not going to go into all of that. But yeah, basically the cost of borrowing, the government borrowing and government bond yields does set a sort of anchor for the borrowing rates of everyone else. Although it is quite, you know, there'll be many people listening and watching this podcast who will currently be able to borrow money for five years to buy their house more cheaply than the government can, which is because that is a secured asset against him. So some people ask, there'll be a lot of people watching who are considered by their own bank a better credit than the UK government right now.

[Adam Fleming]

Wow. Also Katrina, just on mortgage trivia, in America you can basically get like a fixed mortgage for your whole life, can't you? Rather than these two year, five year fix we have in the uk.

[Catriona Perry]

Yeah, you can, you can, but I wouldn't, I'm not a mortgage expert Matters.

[Adam Fleming]

I'm not trying to turn you into the Martin Lewis of Washington dc.

[Catriona Perry]

Do not take financial advice for a me.

[Adam Fleming]

I'm not trying to turn you into the Martin Lewis of Washington D.C. it's just an interesting. When I first read that a few years ago, it was just such an eye opening thing for like how how long term personal finances in different countries could be very, very different. Katrina, you've done diy, international politics, US defense policy, including kamikaze dolphins and now non financial advice. So well done.

[Alex Forsyth]

Exactly.

[Adam Fleming]

Katrina, thank you.

[Catriona Perry]

Now I'm off to go and watch the back catalogue of Sharknado because I feel like that's, you know, appropriate research these days.

[Adam Fleming]

Katrina, thank you very much.

[Catriona Perry]

Bye.

[Adam Fleming]

And Simon, thanks to you too.

[Simon Jack]

Thank you, Adam.

[Adam Fleming]

Now we're learning a little bit more about what Keir Starmer meant when he said that we need a whole of society approach for tackling anti Semitism. Because today the Prime Minister hosted a summit in Downing street where he brought together people from the police, the arts, higher education, business and a whole load of Government departments to tackle what he is now calling a crisis of security for Jewish people in Britain. Two BBC colleagues have been monitoring everything that's been going on today and in recent weeks around this story. Alex Forsyth is at Westminster. Hello, Alex.

[Alex Forsyth]

Hello, Adam.

[Adam Fleming]

Fresh from presenting Politics live at lunchtime.

[Alex Forsyth]

Don't know about fresh, but yes, I'm here.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, you're refreshed when you're presenting it.

[Alex Forsyth]

Thanks.

[Adam Fleming]

And here in the studio with me is Lucy Manning, the BBC News special correspondent. Hi, Lucy.

[Lucy Manning]

Hi, Adam and Alex.

[Adam Fleming]

We'll talk about the politics in a minute, but just. Lucy, in terms of you've spent a lot of time with the communities who've been affected by this, what are some of the messages that you've been picking up?

[Lucy Manning]

Well, I think the main one at the moment is anger. I think there's now been a series of attacks, mainly against Jewish buildings, but we've also had this stabbing attack in Golders Green where two Jewish men were stabbed. Before that, last year, we had two Jewish men killed at the synagogue in Manchester. There was definitely a sense of fear, fear for those first incidents. I think after the Golders Green incident, I really picked up on the streets a feeling of anger. Obviously, the Prime Minister was heckled when he came near where the stabbing was, booing that. That was a small section of the Jewish community there. But just speaking to individuals, there was a real sense that not enough had been done, that this has been going on, particularly since October 7, 2023, and those attacks in Israel, and this is affecting, affected the British Jewish community. And for a long time people have ignored it. And even when it started becoming more mainstream and it started being on the news, still not enough action was taken. And we're talking about action by the government and we're talking about action by civil society, which is what Downing street was sort of concentrating on today.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah, and we'll talk about that in a second. But what are the specific things that they feel should have been done in this period?

[Lucy Manning]

Well, I mean, there's a whole list.

[Simon Jack]

Yeah.

[Lucy Manning]

Where to start? Okay. Okay. So security. Jewish buildings, synagogues, cultural centers, all have to have security outside. It's costing lots of money. Even though the government has put more funding in, people are still having to fundraise for security, having to pay that themselves. So better security, more money for security. But Jewish people don't want to live, as they say, behind high walls. You can build the walls higher and higher and it doesn't solve the problem. And, and so what people talk about

[Adam Fleming]

now, it's safety but at quite a horrendous cost. So your, your, your feeling of comfort.

[Lucy Manning]

Yeah, it's really about getting to the root of the problem and people see that in various different ways. So there is the state factor. Is Iran behind some of these attacks as the police are investigating, and what can be done about dealing with the possible Iranian threat? The Iranian armed guard. God, they should be banned. Many in the community think that hasn't happened yet. The Prime Minister's talked about bringing forward legislation. The marches on the streets, the pro Palestinian demonstrations, many in the Jewish community call them hate marches. Many on the demo say that's not true. But definitely what the community, many in the community, not everyone, but I'd say the mainstream of the community believe is that has been allowed to incubate anti Semitism. And there needs. The government's terrorism reviewer of legislation said there needs to be a moratorium and there needs to be a pause on, on that. That comes up all the time. So we've got the irgc, we've got the marches, we've got security and then just a feeling that in various different businesses, public sector areas, the arts community, that where anti Semitism has raised itself, not enough has been done on a lower level to tackle that.

[Adam Fleming]

And then, Alex, that takes us to Downing street on Tuesday morning and the Prime Minister holding a round table summit call. You will, but bringing together lots of different players to try and address lots of the things that Lucy was just mentioning there.

[Alex Forsyth]

Yeah, and specifically exactly what Lucy was talking about, about this notion that there isn't just kind of one thing that needs to be done or one element of this that needs to be addressed. I think the message you, you were getting from government is that they do see this as a sort of wider societal issue, which is why when you look at the cast list of people that were gathered in Downing street for this summit this morning, it was quite broad. So you had a whole load of Cabinet Ministers to start with, so Health Secretary, Education Secretary, Culture Secretary, Home Secretary, pr. And then you also have people from those different sections of society. So you had like university leaders, people who were at the front of the arts and culture world, people from the public sector, including the nhs, as well as policing. And after this sort of address from the Prime Minister, there were then all of these sub working groups where they kind of broke off into different groups and we're talking about whatever section of society that they operate primarily in. What needed to be done in that space. I guess it, what it is, is the government trying to answer what has been this central criticism Lucy outlined there really that words are okay on one thing but they're not enough and that there needs to be followed up with action. And I think what today was an attempt to be from government was a sign where they thought that some of that action might come. And also as I say this notion that this is cross community, cross society, there are lots of different aspects to

[Adam Fleming]

this and here is the Prime Minister making that pitch on Tuesday morning.

[Prime Minister (Keir Starmer)]

Every part of society has a responsibility to respond with determination and force because there are too many people who don't see antisemitism for what it is, an anti Jewish hatred, racism, pure and simple.

[Adam Fleming]

This idea of a whole of society approach. I mean some people will say oh yeah good because you've got to tackle it in all the different places that you identified. Other people will say well oh hang on, blaming all of society or diffusing the responsibility is a way to, of, of the state, the government avoiding responsibility. And then some people might say well hang on, what's it got to do with everyone else?

[Lucy Manning]

Right, so both the Prime Minister and the police and Jewish communal groups have have explained it that the Jewish community are basically in this awful Venn diagram where they are facing threats from the far left, the far right, Islamists and state act actors like Iran. And some of those can be dealt with by the government, by the police, but some of those need to be dealt with on a societal level as well. So just, I mean some examples I've obviously been speaking to people the last few weeks but also today an actress facing a boycott, a Jewish actress facing a boycott campaign for, for a play they've got going on. A musician I spoke to, to Jewish musician this morning who had concerts cancelled. A Jewish band with an Israeli singer that the venue had to apologize. A student facing terrible anti Semitism at university. Another who was in a six form facing terrible anti Semitic attacks from, from pupils, verbal attacks. And so I think it seems to the Jewish community that they are facing threats on so many different levels and, and these arson attacks that may be linked to Iran, this knife attack now and then just the day to day anti Semitism that that is going on and what they say and what they've said these last few weeks is that it does need people at all levels from the government downwards. So if you're listening to this and you're in a work environment, how do your Jewish staff feel? That's what people say to me. Have Jewish people heard from their non Jewish friends when this is going on? How do you Feel check, checking in. It's just little things like that at the bottom to the really big things at the top and what the government and the authorities are going to do. And. And the Prime Minister was clear today that he sees it as a crisis. And there are definitely scared and angry people in the Jewish community at the moment.

[Adam Fleming]

And Alex, politically, that's very interesting because I'm always reminded that the most powerful force in society is everybody doing a little bit.

[Lucy Manning]

Bit.

[Adam Fleming]

But that involves the government almost, I suppose, in some people's views, lecturing people about what they should be doing in their daily lives. Because this is Keir Starmer saying to literally every single person in Britain, you have a bit of a responsibility or a bit of a duty here to do something. And historically, governments tend not to like to be that interventionist. Well, to everyone in the country, all in one go.

[Alex Forsyth]

Yeah, I guess it depends on the type of government you've got. I mean, around the world there are some governments that are quite happily.

[Adam Fleming]

I was meeting British governments in recent history.

[Alex Forsyth]

I totally hear. I totally hear what you're saying. And not only only was that the message that was quite clearly coming from the Prime Minister. And yeah, he did, he did use the word crisis. He thought that this was a crisis of anti Semitism in the UK right now, which I think is the first time that he's used that word, even though he has been talking about it in. In a sort of quite serious way, particularly since those attacks in Golda's Green last week. But not only was he sending that message to all of these different sectors of society that you need to do something about it. There were some sort of quite specific things in there that the Prime Minister. Minister set out. So universities are going to be expected to publish the scale of anti Semitism to anti Semitism on their campuses and try and demonstrate the actions that they are taking to tackle it. Don't quite know the details of how that's going to work, but it was a clear expectation outlined by the Prime Minister. And similarly, he said, like the Arts Council, which supports arts and cultural organizations, they would be expected to withdraw public funding where it's being used to platform anti Semitism. So the. There were some specific things in there, as I say again, I think some of the detail about exactly how that that withdrawal of funding would happen is still to be either worked out or revealed publicly at least. But this wasn't just a message. It kind of went a little bit beyond that with a set of expectations that comes along with it. But interestingly I spoke to Phil Rosenberg, who is the President of the Board of Deputies, after he'd been at that summit in Downing street. And he has expressed anger at what he has seen as lack of action to tackle anti Semitism. But he did kind of broadly welcome some of the sentiment of this summit because he was saying that it is about not just sort of a single legged approach, it has to be this sort of broader approach. In fact, he was saying, I think he said the three things are protect, prosecute and partner when it comes to tackling anti Semitism. So there was, you know, some sort of warm reception for, for the attempt at least to broaden the scope of this and to set up out where action does need to be taken at kind of every level.

[Lucy Manning]

I think maybe I can give you a bit of an insight into the feelings of the Jewish community. There's a game in inverted commas going viral in WhatsApp groups among some in the Jewish community about you. Type in your details and it tells you which country, when you're leaving the UK you might want to move to. So Israel, Miami, Australia, and there are thousands of Jewish people in the UK that have gone on that in inverted commas game to look at which country, if they left the UK they should go to now. Mildly amusing, but really not because those conversations are being had. And there's anger that those conversations are having to be had because people I spoke to this week were saying, look, we're British, we've lived here, we've contributed here, we shouldn't have to think about leaving. And if we leave, in some ways that does the anti Semitic seamite's job for them. But that just goes to show what conversations are happening. And when people are walking, were walking to synagogue on Saturday, there was massive police presence everywhere, police cars, police officers, community security. But you can't stop it without dealing the Jewish leadership field with some of those root causes.

[Adam Fleming]

And Lucy, you mentioned Iran a couple of times. The Prime Minister specifically addressed Iran when he was holding this meeting. Let's have a listen to what he said.

[Prime Minister (Keir Starmer)]

He said one of the lines of inquiry is whether a foreign state has been behind some of these incidents. We're investigating, of course, all the possibilities and we're clear that these actions will have consequences if that proves to be the case. Our message to Iran or to any other country that might seek to foment violence, violence, hatred or division in society is that it will not be tolerated. That is why we're fast tracking legislation to tackle these malign threats.

[Adam Fleming]

Lucy, do we know what that might mean in practice?

[Lucy Manning]

Well, the key thing that people have raised is the irgc, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and there's been a call for a long time, not just from Jewish leadership, but also Iranian dissidents, that and some MPs that, that the IRGC should be banned. It looks like in the King's Speech that is going to happen. But that has taken time and that has been. There has been criticism of that. And then the police are investigating still some of these arson attacks and whether they have Iranian links. And they have talked in general terms about people being paid, teenagers being paid by hostile states. And that is, is a growing threat and that is something that the authorities are, are going to have to deal with. The Met have talked about an increased threat from hostile states.

[Adam Fleming]

And Alex, as political journalists, that that threat from Iran and Iran's proxies operating in the UK and people being paid by entities linked to Iran to, to cause trouble at one end and maybe try and assassinate people at the other end of the scale, that has been floating around in, in, in Westminster as a concept for a while, hasn't it?

[Alex Forsyth]

Yeah. And I think that this is a really good example of where they've been from a perspective as well. Kind of lots and lots of calls for some sort of firm action on this. So specifically on that point about possibly prescribing the irgc, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Yes, the Prime Minister's talked about legislation coming forward, but even from within labor as well as opposition parties, there's just been a real sort of pressure point for a more clear and quick action. And I think, you know, now obviously the government's talking about it again, but this hasn't come out of the blue. These conversations have been had before. And I think that's where you got a lot of the anger initially at what some people said was a lack of action in the past.

[Adam Fleming]

And Lucy, just before we started recording this episode, you said you were off to, to an event tonight. Do you want to sort of set the scene for that?

[Alex Forsyth]

Yes.

[Lucy Manning]

So tonight there is a big event with the ultra, ultra orthodox community. One of. Well, both of the men who were stabbed in Golda's Green last week were members of the ultra orthodox community. And one of them is particularly from that community and there are thousands of them gathering tonight. It is an occasion, it is a Jewish occasion tonight called Lagba Omer. So they would have been having this prayer event anyway, but they are using it as an opportunity to say prayers for the men who were injured. And it may Be that some of the families of the injured are there. But I, I think, I think for the ultra Orthodox community who look visibly Jewish, it's particularly a difficult time for them. I spoke to the Chief Rabbi last week in Golders Green and asked him whether he felt that people who were visibly Jewish were safe on British streets. And he said sadly, he, he didn't think so. And just a few days before that I'd interviewed another member of the ultra Orthodox community, a man called Mosher. He was, he was, he's a building surveyor and he was out in Slough looking at a building and he had his kippah, his head covering, traditional Jewish head covering on. And a man came up and was very, very violently abusive to him. Called him anti Semitic names, pushed him. That man was, I think he pleaded guilty or he was convicted last week as well. But he said something really depressing which he said, I was thinking to myself, what was I doing thinking I could go out in parts of the UK looking like a Jew? And he was essentially annoyed with himself that he thought he could go out being visibly Jewish. And he later said to me that he lives in Golders Green. And so when that stabbing attack happened a few days later, he said Golders Green was, was my safe place. This is where I felt I could put, I suppose my, my Jewish clothes on. My clothes that symbolize I'm a Jew. And yet other people in that community did the same that day and they were stabbed in the streets.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, very, a lot of issues to think about and it feels to me that yeah, when the government's using the word crisis, that's, that's like the anti politically being up to quite a lot. Lucy, thank you very much.

[Lucy Manning]

No problem.

[Adam Fleming]

And Alex, thanks for, to you too.

[Alex Forsyth]

Pleasure as ever.

[Adam Fleming]

And that's all for this episode of Newscast apart from to give you some advance warning about what is happening after the elections on the 7th of May. We are hoping to do a newscast episode bright and early at breakfast time on Friday with the results that we have then, which will mainly be English local authorities. Then we're planning to reassess late on Friday evening when we will have a much clearer picture of what has happened in Scotland, Wales and in the areas of England that have had elections. So a double helping of election based newscast. Hey, maybe we should call that election cast on Friday. But we'll be back with a normal newscast tomorrow. Bye bye. Newscast.

[Alex Forsyth]

Newscast from the BBC.

[BBC Newscast Outro Voice]

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