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- [00:00]
Simon Jack
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK.
- [00:06]
Alex
Wait, you don't need an hour to burn calories.
- [00:10]
Adam Fleming
TikTok has short workouts that get your
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Alex
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- [00:35]
Adam Fleming
I tell you what this week has been like going back to the late 90s or the early noughties, because we had a couple of days where Tony Blair dominated the news headlines in politics, and then we had a day where his former Health Secretary, Alan Milburn, dominated the headlines in politics. So what's been going on and what exactly did those two old New Labourites have to say? We'll discuss on this episode of Newscast, which was broadcast first of all on BBC1 on Thursday night after Question Time. Newscast.
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Alex
Newscast. From the BBC.
- [01:03]
Simon Jack
Humanity's next great voyage begins.
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Adam Fleming
We are in the midst of a rupture.
- [01:07]
Sarah Montague
Nostalgia will not bring back the old order.
- [01:10]
Simon Jack
Six, seven. Yeah, it's supposed to be me.
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Adam Fleming
As a doctor, Daddy has.
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Simon Jack
Has also a special connotation.
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Alex
Ooh la la.
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Sarah Montague
Thinking about it like a panto helped.
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Alex
Do we play music now or what do we do?
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Adam Fleming
Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio.
- [01:23]
Alex
And it's Alex in the newscast studio.
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Simon Jack
And it's Simon Jack in the newscast studio.
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Adam Fleming
And please welcome back, presenter of the World At One, Sarah Montague. Hello, Sarah.
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Sarah Montague
Hello, Adam.
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Adam Fleming
And you've got a head start on us because you covered lots of these stories on the World at One today.
- [01:35]
Sarah Montague
I did, but as did you on PM.
- [01:37]
Adam Fleming
PM, a few hours later, we have. This is Radio 4.
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Alex
This is Radio 4. This Is It.
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Adam Fleming
Who's doing the World Tonight? Who's doing the World Tonight?
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Alex
Simon?
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Simon Jack
No, I might be doing the 10, but I think I've managed to wiggle my way out of it.
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Adam Fleming
Actually. A big common theme of all news programmes today was Alan Milburn and his report into Young Neets, which is people who are not in employment, education or training. Alex, give us the. The backstory to this big report which he published today.
- [02:04]
Alex
So this has been a concern for government and governments for some time. I think it's fair to say the amount, the number, and the growing number of young people who are finding themselves, when we say young people age 16 to 24, who are not in the workplace, they're not in training, and all of the consequences that has for their individual lives, but also wider society and the economy. So Alan Milburn, who is a former Labor Health Secretary, back in the days of one Tony Blair, he was asked by the government to take a look at the reasons why and then come up with some recommendations that might try and solve this problem. And this was the first of his two reports that he's going to produce was effectively his assessment of the issue of how broad it is, how deep it is, how bad it is, the impact it's having across society. And then later we're going to get his recommendations for some solutions.
- [02:48]
Adam Fleming
And Simon, it's a very, very long report with so many tables and annexes and he's obviously spoken to a lot of people to gather all the data, but sort of the two kind of big themes are the, that the way young people get into jobs has changed and it's become harder. And also there are more young people who have maybe mental health conditions that mean they're in the benefit system rather than the employment system.
- [03:12]
Simon Jack
I hate to boil this down to supply and demand, but there are two factors going on here. One is that the number of entry level jobs is actually markedly fewer than it was a few years ago. 1.6 million fewer jobs. And then on the supply side there are more people who don't feel up to getting into work for, you know, a variety of reasons. So all, you know, it is complex and there's lots of factors here. Mainly, you know, three quarters of the million plus we're talking about is youth unemployment. People who are looking for a job and can't get one. And a lot of that, if you talk to any of the business groups around, will say that in effect, government policies, it's been a problem for a long time, but it's accelerated over the last couple of years. And some of that is down to the fact that government policies have made young people in particular more expensive. You know, the 18 to 20 year old rate has gone up 45% of the national willing wage, 23% for the regular living wage, and riskier with a whole slew of new employment rights. And most businesses would say if you've got a youth unemployment problem, making them more expensive and riskier to hire is a strange way of going about it.
- [04:18]
Adam Fleming
And Sarah, on Watto, you were talking to a businesswoman and she made it so clear some of the challenges that she's facing.
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Sarah Montague
And. But before I sort of talk about what she said, it's worth saying that what he was suggesting today is the idea of a complete reset of almost everything that we do in society, from education to health to Welfare to the job market. Because his argument is that it doesn't work for the 21st century, for this generation and that it's. And it was striking, really. He was saying it's not their fault, it's not that they're snowflakes, it's that they are being served very badly and put on a pathway that is not directing them to benefits rather than to the jobs. But you.
- [05:01]
Adam Fleming
Yeah, well, no, no, let's come on to cause I'll just expand on some of the things you were mentioning there because Alan Milburn did this news conference on Thursday morning and the stat that jumped out for me from that and what he wanted us to hear was it something like 80 plus percent, 85% of the NEETs that he surveyed said, oh, I want a job. So actually it's only a very small minority of people who like, can't be bothered or don't want to do it.
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Alex
You've been hearing testimony really all through the day from young people who find themselves in this situation. And some of them are talking about applying for hundreds of jobs and either just getting no response at all or getting knocked back.
- [05:34]
Sarah Montague
And that's what's so unutterably depressing when you hear about it. When you think about in our day, you could literally, you could walk into places, you could call somebody up, you could speak to a human, you could try to get, you know, get a foot in the door. Now, you know, when you suggest that to young people, which I have done, having a few children of a certain age, you sort of get it doesn't work like that.
- [05:54]
Simon Jack
They look at it as you feel mad you're taking your CV down the high street.
- [05:58]
Sarah Montague
Yeah, which is what I did.
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Alex
I printed paper of your cv, although
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Sarah Montague
I made a daughter do that actually. And she did get some jobs, but then.
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Adam Fleming
Oh, that's good.
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Sarah Montague
Well, yeah, except she was treated so badly. I mean, she didn't know what hours she were. You know, they sent her home after two hours. So. So having forced her into it, I'm not sure I was particularly thanked, but she.
- [06:17]
Simon Jack
Yeah, anyway, just, you know, the business lobby would say that, wouldn't they? About the fact that, you know, they're too expensive and they're riskier to hire and the labor position has always been, you know, before they came into office and during, is that giving younger people secure, well paid jobs that they can build a life around, rent a flat around, pay a mortgage around is a worthy endeavor rather than having what they used to call the Precariat all on zero. Hours, contracts. But it just turns out that all of these things happen at the very time that employers are wondering to themselves, how many people do I need at all in the future? So there's some technological issues out and you're talking about people who were applying for jobs and it's so demoralizing. I did a piece of not long ago when we spoke to people who do the first three rounds of interviews, trying to talking to an AI, and they would literally find within seconds, I'm so sorry, good luck with your future endeavors. You haven't got this one. And some of them knowing that that
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Sarah Montague
is, can take a whole day.
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Simon Jack
Take a whole day. You've asked a lot of questions. And then right at the end it's saying, within seconds, sorry, you're out. And that is a very demoralizing experience.
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Sarah Montague
Yeah.
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Adam Fleming
And Alex, just on Sarah's other point that Alan Milburn was making today about this being a, a national cause that it should be, and you need changes to schools, colleges, universities, the benefit system, the nhs, a whole systems reset. He described it. I mean, that's a hard thing for a government to do. I don't think there are many examples of where a government's managed to make that many changes in that many areas of national life in one go.
- [07:47]
Alex
Absolutely right. And he was almost saying that this has to be the kind of moral cause of government and country, and this has got to be an inflection point and a moment to take stock and everybody's got to do something about it. And he was also making the argument the kind of individual policy ideas or attempts might be noble, but that's not going to be enough. So he's pointed to things like this government's doing where it's basically offering business money to take on apprenticeships or subsidized work placements. Previous governments have done the same. The conservatives did a kickstart scheme which effectively did that through Covid. The old labor government or new labor government, actually, that Alan Milburn was in himself.
- [08:21]
Adam Fleming
The old labor government, which was a
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Alex
new labor government, I mean, they did exactly the same. They had a new deal which they effectively were trying to get people off. Whether. So he was great, great to do those kind of policy initiatives, but that ain't going to solve it. The question you then have, well, is, well, how do you then achieve a whole system reset? It's surely got to start with some policy and some ideas and some practical changes in specific areas. And I think just the scale of it that he was outlining begs the question. And Yeah, I mean, he's coming up with his report in the autumn. But how then are you going to do this? Because if you're talking about a problem of that scale in nature, the solution has got to be truly massive and therefore very difficult for a government to deliver.
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Sarah Montague
You mentioned the business that I. Yes, businesswoman, I spoke today, who was absolutely jaw dropping in what she was saying, because she was effectively describing one element of what you're talking about, the solutions, which is what business can do. And it's clear. I mean, she was saying, we are adapting the culture at work for this generation. And she basically said, it's kind of. It's pissing off a lot of the older staff, people who were saying, well, hold on a second, why are they getting special treatment? Because the things they're needing, they're so anxious, they'll need an anxiety day off to work from home. They don't. They don't want to pick up the phone, you know, happy sending messages, don't want to pick up the phone. She's teaching them just down to, like, you need to turn up on time
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Adam Fleming
at the start of your shift.
- [09:41]
Sarah Montague
Yeah, yeah. And all these sort of things which she said, I'm trying to change the culture so that people have compassion to these young people who have not been taught. And what she said, it's basically, it's changed since COVID is what she'd noticed a marked change from the people who are arriving now compared with just a few years.
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Alex
And Alan Milburn had sort of two diagnoses on that, didn't he? In the first case, he thought this is a generation that's more anxious because. So it's not that they're snowflakey, they genuinely have more anxiety. And the other thing I thought was interesting, he was pointing the finger quite a lot of the education system, not specific schools or anything, but saying there's been so much focus on the academic qualifications, which are important, but not enough focus on work readiness, and that people turning up with the skills like you need, like turning up on time, being flexible, being adaptable, being able to work in a workplace, part of that, the education system, part of the lack of those Saturday jobs or the erosion of Saturday jobs which might prepare people for work. But again, where's the big fix for that kind of stuff? We'll get his recommendations, but it's not going to be easy to do that kind of wholesale change.
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Adam Fleming
I just think the logic of what Alan Milburn is saying here is that if a big part of the problem is that Young people leave school and intend instead of going into a job, they get put on the health related element of universal credit and the income they would get from a job is replaced by a higher level of universal credit. Well then the logic of that is that you have a different wealth welfare system for people under 25 that has different incentives that encourages and supports people into a job rather than into welfare. And then Pat McFadden, the working pension secretary, was on PM, a very fine news program on Radio 4 and I was basically. Very good interview, thank you very much. Phil Marks to myself and I asked him over and over again saying, well, are you open to the idea that that logic leads you to of a different benefit system for under 25s? And I mean, he didn't rule it out, but he also didn't sound enthusiastic about adopting it. And I suppose that's fair because he's still waiting for what Alan Milburn actually proposes at the end of the year or by the end of the year. But to me that just seems very clearly the logic of what Alan Milburn was suggesting today. There has to be a different set of rules for the under 25s than for the over 25s.
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Alex
Yeah. And I think while he was trying to be careful not to say this is all just about welfare, he was really framing it in that way. He acknowledged totally that a big part of this is going to be about some sort of welfare reform. And we know that's tricky politically. We don't need to go over the reasons as to why that's proved particularly challenging for this labor government. But beyond that, there's also the kind of, I mean, Simon would know probably a bit more about this than me, but there's sort of the economic backdrop to that. Because if you think when the government first tried to reform the welfare system last year and ran into all those problems, part of the reason they wanted to do it was to bring the welfare bill down, which is what like the conservatives argue needs to happen and reform UK argue needs to happen. But actually if you listen to what Alan Milburn's saying, he's talking about the level of support that is needed to help young people into the work workplace. So it reads to me like, if you're getting to a kind of reform of the welfare system place in his recommendations, is that going to require some hefty upfront investment to put the systems in place to give these young people the support before you might, and I am speculating here, but move on to some sort of conditional benefit system or, you know, we'll give you support, but you've got to do this to get it in return. You know, it's kind of. That's the complexity of that level of reform.
- [12:55]
Simon Jack
He was saying that for every £25 you spend on welfare, only £1 is spent in trying to get people back into work. And that balance is. Is all wrong. Is interesting. You know, the incentives. How do you. How do you. I mean, basically when you say change the incentives, you mean make welfare less generous. And what they're. What the original plan was is that you would reduce welfare a bit and you would make working worth a bit more. So you had the big increases in national living wage. So basically there would be a stick from welfare reduction and there'd be a carrot saying, actually I can get a proper paid job, which, with some security and some more employment rights, that will make that much more attractive. And that was going to be the big pull. You know, you've got to get the job, though. Well, that's the other thing about the employment rights. And some of the employers I speak to and say you can have all the rights you like, but if you don't have a job, they're pointless. That is the. And probably having a job is the most important economic, you know, differentiator between one thing and another, whether you have the job or not will determine so much of your life. And this is not the first review we've had. Remember, Charlie Mayfield did something about getting people back into work, sort of, you know, having phone when they're off sick and getting them back into the workplace. And he touched on some of these issues as well.
- [14:08]
Sarah Montague
The first question of Anna Milburn today was from someone saying, would you consider recommending that you introduce national service? Now, we're not going to get his recommendations until the autumn, as he said. But it did occur to me that that actually could solve a couple of problems for the government, which is also trying to look at readying the nation for a different defensive attitude.
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Alex
I mean, it was so interesting because it was the sun reporter, I think, who framed it in the way of not necessarily military national service, but also voluntary. Rishi Sunak proposed that, if you remember,
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Sarah Montague
for a big society.
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Alex
Hold on, David Cameron, Big society. And then Rishi Sunak floated this notion during the election campaign of 2024, this idea, is that what you want? And Alan Milburn, in response to that question, he said, it's an interesting notion. It's the kind of thing we're looking at now. I don't think we're going to end up in a position where the government comes out with a policy to mandate everybody to go and serve in the army because it's, you know, not going to land particularly well, apart from everything else. But it was interesting that he wasn't a straight dismissive, no way. He was like, we're looking at this kind of thing to tailor, to almost like tailor the opportunities for the people in the way they need.
- [15:12]
Adam Fleming
But it's a reminder that a big employer of people in this country is the public sector. And so actually, if you want to make a big bang to employment in one go, changing the rules around hiring people who are paid taxpayers money would be a good way of doing that. I'm thinking back to when Newscast was doing some episodes at the Hay Festival. That's what me and Alex spent our weekend doing. And we had an amazing conversation with Baroness Casey, Louise Casey, who's done loads of reviews for the government on lots of different things. And I had two.
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Simon Jack
There's no question to which Baroness Casey
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Sarah Montague
is not the answer.
- [15:43]
Adam Fleming
I mean, she did say there's a few things she's not done, but only time will tell. And when we're having this conversation, there's two things that she said out of many things that she said, because it was about an hour long, the conversation that had been ringing in my ears today. First one was she said, okay, that number of a million NEETs, which will rise to more than a million if nothing is done. She said within that that there are different groups. And she says the one she's really worried about is the 300,000 ish people that don't appear on any list or any stats anywhere. They are just sort of ghost young people who potentially are in their bedroom the whole time. And they have no interaction with the state, either through the benefit system or job center plus or the NHS or anything. No one knows what, what they're doing. And the government's not very good historically at targeting help or incentives or whatever you want to call it, people that they just don't. Just can't find. So that's one point. And then the second point she was saying was when you've done a review like this, and these are her words, you have to be like a dog with a bone. And her words, it's a war of attrition because the political system, the civil service, the institutions, not through the fault of any of the individuals, don't want to make big changes like this. And she was giving an example of she did a report into the grooming gangs in Rotherham in 2016. She had a meeting last week with the government minister responsible for licensing taxis to follow up on that report.
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Sarah Montague
And it was quite resting because when she said, I feel like I've let those women down. And you thought, God, you know, you've done spent that much time trying to make a difference. But nothing's shifting.
- [17:17]
Alex
And therefore back to the point about if Alan Milburn suggesting it's a whole across kind of economy, every sector, society approach, it's hard. I mean, he wasn't pretending it was anything other than that, just to be abundantly clear. But, you know, he was sort of. This felt like a bit of a call to arms in a way, like, we've got to focus on this and do something about it. But. But it's the how.
- [17:35]
Simon Jack
But I think the one thing everyone did agree is that it is actually a really fundamental crisis. And what's interesting is if you look at the stats on youth unemployment, the UK has had a lower youth unemployment record than most of the EU for over a decade, for decades. But they've actually switched places in the last three years. And it started after Covid that they started falling a little bit and the UK started growing. And now at 16.2% of 16 to 24 year olds, we have a higher youth unemploy rate than the EU average. And that is the first time that's happened in many, many years.
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Sarah Montague
The only Nation with more NEETs than us is in Europe is Romania.
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Simon Jack
Yeah, exactly.
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Adam Fleming
Now, Alan Milburn's old boss when he was Health Secretary was Tony Blair. And Tony Blair has been in the news as well this week. So it's been a sort of back to the future kind of week. Alex, where have we got to in the battle of the long political phase? Because everyone's done one now.
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Alex
Yeah, everybody's done one. I don't quite know how he ended up at this point. Well, I do. We started with Tony Blair, who published a 5,600 wor essay on Tuesday night, which was his assessment of where the Labour Party finds itself. And it was, you know, it was a very broad critique and it wasn't very pleasant in some ways. So he basically said this current government's got no coherent plan. He was supportive of some of their ideas, critical of others. He also said that the notion that there's going to be some kind of personality factional contest now for potential future leadership job is the wrong approach. It's got to be policy first. Don't get rid of the Prime Minister before you focus on your policy and on the policy stuff, he set out what he thought the right policy approach was and there was some stuff in there that just won't sit well with many in the Labor Party. But the kind of essence of his argument was don't retreat to the comfortable soft left labor position before he, before he arrived.
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Simon Jack
Basically go, but don't go back to the pre. New Labor.
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Alex
Labor, basically. Yes, basically, yeah. And the reaction, as you might expect, was from, I mean everybody's been quite respectful about this because Tony Blair is a guy that won three elections for the Labour Party.
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Sarah Montague
So everyone starts by saying you can't ignore somebody who has won three elections
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Alex
and then a very interesting intervention. But yeah, and, and everybody sort of does do the whole kind of bit of praise of what he says and then where they disagree. And the essence of the disagreement from the, from some in labor has basically been we don't think that the old model of Tony Blair from 1997 onwards is fit for a kind of modern society. Then we had bit a bit of reaction from Wes treating and Andy Burnham in the form of sign of written pieces in newspapers. The big thrust of their arguments was you're not focusing enough Sutoni on the inequality that this country's facing and the places in the country that feel desperately left behind. And had another huge great essay and I haven't done a word count on this one, but from the Prime Minister himself responding to Tony Blair. So we're in a total battle of the political essays at this point.
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Simon Jack
The pamphlet warfares, the pamphlet wars.
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Sarah Montague
It's quite refreshing though to get into the arguments, isn't it? I mean that is one thing. When you heard Tony Blair again, it's like he's presenting an argument like, you know, his, what he's proposing and the arguments behind it and everybody's response.
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Alex
This is a policy debate at last. You know, we might all disagree, but we do welcome the notion that he sparked a proper discussion.
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Simon Jack
But it is, it's interesting. It sort of does feel like beyond left and right on this one because actually in many ways this is sort of pro growth, pro globalization, pro oil and gas, pro AI adoption. There's not much, it's, it's quite difficult to know how much labor is actually left in that manifesto.
- [21:04]
Adam Fleming
Well, there's that great bit with our colleague Nick Robinson interviewing Tony Blair on the day that his, his essay came out and Tony Blair catching himself because he nearly said, I don't care whether it does this or not.
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Sarah Montague
Yeah, but we had. So I interviewed Stuart Wood, Lord Wood Labor Advisor Strategist Rachel Wolf, Conservative advisor, former, wrote the manifesto and she, she was just like, it's a conservative manifesto. It's fabulous.
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Adam Fleming
Deregulation, more oil and gas.
- [21:33]
Alex
Interestingly, the business Prime Minister's response to Tony Blair's critique of his government and the wider Labour Party at the moment makes the argument for labor values. So Keir Starmer does a sort of defense of some of the stuff that his government has done on public services in the NHS and immigration and child poverty and the. He talks about some areas of agreement with Tony Blair when it comes to having to maintain a relationship with the us, however rocky it gets. Although he disagrees with Tony Blair on the initial involvement of the UK in the Iran war. But he goes on to say it towards the end that he does think that there's an argument where policy ideas have to be framed in values and he's kind of arguing for what he calls labor value. So he's dismissing the of left, left, right, doesn't matter anymore.
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Adam Fleming
Keir Starmer actually tore himself away from his laptop writing his essay to talk to the cameras today. And here's a little version of what he said in his longer piece.
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Keir Starmer
I agree with him that we should be having a discussion about policy and ideas and that's what generates politics. That's where the focus should be. So Tony is right about that. You won't be surprised to know that I don't agree with much of what Tony says about what the government is doing. We can all argue about individual policies, but the real question is what's the change? What's the difference? That is happening in a country that we inherited two years ago in a very poor place. We put the policy in place to stabilise the economy and make sure that it grew so wealth was created in every part of the country because of our policy choices. That is happening and you see that in the figures that were out there this year, in recent months in particular.
- [23:09]
Adam Fleming
And I'm told that Keir Starmer's version was 2,928 words. And he posted it on his substack. And the picture at the top of the substack looks like he's writing it on a clipboard, which I've never really used as an essay writing tool before,
- [23:25]
Alex
especially not for one you're going to publish online.
- [23:27]
Adam Fleming
Yes. So did he write in longhand and then someone typed up, which actually is how Tony Blair wrote his autobiography.
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Simon Jack
Simon what struck me about the Blair essay was the fact it, the theme of it was that, and this is what I hear from a lot of business people is that there's only so much that any sitting politician can actually do. Most economies are at the behest or are influenced by factors way beyond national government's control. That might be energy prices, it might be geopolitical shifts, it might be supply chains, it might be whatever it is. And that one reading of Tony Blair's essay was being like, there's not much you can do about this, so just get on board because this is the way the world is. So AI is going to do this, so just get on board with it. You know, we need cheaper energy because it's making us uncompetitive. We're going to lose out globally. Get on it.
- [24:16]
Adam Fleming
You don't need to. You don't need to be a global leader in clean energy policy and technology because actually it just boils down to how much carbon is America and how much carbon is China going to put into the atmosphere.
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Simon Jack
Yeah, you're in a global race. These are the rules. Get on it, get with it.
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Sarah Montague
Yeah, except the. The regulation of AI is so interesting. I mean, because of course it came out of the. At the same time as the Pope's sort of calling for some controls and thought about the future, our future governed by AI or.
- [24:47]
Adam Fleming
Anyway, that's something I do just want to. And going back to my interview with Pat McFadden, everyone's just showing off their program. Yeah. Why don't you listen to PM available on BBC Sounds? It was about 36 minutes in.
- [24:58]
Alex
It was very good because he was
- [25:00]
Adam Fleming
slightly late for the studio and they say young people don't turn up on time. He was actually held up by another interview. Just to be clear, if Matt McFadden's special advisors are watching. And he confirmed my theory from earlier in the week that what Tony Blair was actually trying to do here was to up the level of the debate in the upcoming Labour leadership contest because he was worried that it was just going to be. Who's like the most cheeky chappie who can sell our policies. Is it Andy Burnham from the north or is it Wes treating from the south? And actually this is now sort of set a new standard for what the level of debate is going to be or what is demanded of the. The future labor leadership candidates, if there are any. When it comes to.
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Alex
Well, I mean, you could argue it succeeded if the amount of essay writing that's it's resulted in is anything to go by. Even like the MPS on social media are not posting like 140 character messages. They are huge, great threads with their kind of take on it.
- [25:52]
Simon Jack
Once, once someone did one, they go. They all the damn burst and they're all writing one now. Lord Wood of Anfield took to he 20 pay to a 20 tweet thread.
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Sarah Montague
That's why we got him on the program. It was very fascinating in his response to.
- [26:04]
Alex
To it. And that is back to that point. I do think genuinely there are plenty of people in the Labour Party that want exactly that. Like a properly considered debate about where they go from here. And you know, I guess the question about when you're reading this stuff, and obviously we read the substance and the long essay so that you don't have to. We can just boil, boil them down and tell you what's in them. Because I can't imagine most people on like a sunny weekday even are going to sit there and read 5600 or 2000, whatever it is, words. The audience isn't necessarily the public right now. The audience is the Labour Party where there is a clear, really very active and open debate and wrestling and tussling for ideas and direction.
- [26:40]
Simon Jack
Whatever the idea, you've still got to reckon with the bond market at the end of the day, which is something,
- [26:45]
Sarah Montague
I mean, obviously the audience to some extent you said was the labor. The Labor Party, the selectorate. But who's actually listening to what he said? I mean, in the days since, yes, it's prompted all this, but most people in the Labour Party are sort of pushing back and saying, no, it's. It's probably those around Kemi Badenoch are going, hold on a second. If Tony Blair is saying this, why don't you know this? This would suit us.
- [27:07]
Adam Fleming
And Simon, your point about the bond market. So the international investors and institutions that lend the UK government the money to basically function on a day to day basis because they don't earn enough in tax to pay for all the public services and all the things they want to do is an interesting example of where Andy Burnham has had to sort of like trim his sales a little bit.
- [27:25]
Simon Jack
Correct. So basically there was this. I mean, the bond market.
- [27:29]
Adam Fleming
Does anyone sail here, by the way? Have I used that correctly? I feel like I like sort of pull in a little.
- [27:35]
Sarah Montague
I say yes.
- [27:36]
Adam Fleming
Yeah. Is that trimming your sails?
- [27:37]
Alex
I think so.
- [27:38]
Adam Fleming
I think we all have such an expansive program. It may be like being a bit less ambitious with what he's saying.
- [27:43]
Simon Jack
Yeah. Because I remember he famously said he didn't want.
- [27:47]
Sarah Montague
There's a few.
- [27:48]
Adam Fleming
Was that wrong on the sailing or on the.
- [27:49]
Sarah Montague
Can we just Say, can we. Shouldn't we be using U turns as well? About Andy Benham, Just some of the things that he's sort of. I mean, you're actually possibly tacking rather than just trimming the sail.
- [28:00]
Alex
A second sailing one.
- [28:01]
Adam Fleming
It's like an episode of Howard's Way.
- [28:04]
Simon Jack
But suffice it to say there was a moment when Andy Burnham said recently that you can't be in hock to the bond market. You can't make policy on basically what the international investors think. And he was forced to actually sort of adjust that, apparently at the advice of Ed Miliband, potential wannabe chancellor kingmaker for the next leadership campaign potentially. And he said, oh, no, we are going to stick to the fiscal rules, which are Rachel Reeves rules, which say that you have to basically have enough money coming in to cover day to day spending, apart from investment. And Deb, as a percentage of the economy has to be coming down by the end of any particular five year period. Because there was this moment where the bond market was saying, listen, there's a lot of stuff going on inflationary already at the moment, what with the Gulf and all. And then the last thing we need right now is also a government which say we're actually, we're going to shift the goalpost and borrow and spend a bit more. Which means that the credit worthiness of the UK potentially, you know, anything. Unfunded tax cuts. As Liz Truss found out, they don't like unfunded spending pledges. As you know, the bond market will tell them they don't like. So he had to sort of adjust his course, which goes back to the point I was making before. The room for the maneuver as Prime Minister and Chancellor is sometimes pretty limited.
- [29:17]
Adam Fleming
And Sarah, I should just say there is a long history on this podcast of arguing over whether something is a U turn or not.
- [29:23]
Sarah Montague
Oh, sorry.
- [29:23]
Adam Fleming
Or whether it's like more of a J turn.
- [29:26]
Alex
Okay.
- [29:26]
Adam Fleming
Because I. My, my view of a U. A U turn.
- [29:29]
Sarah Montague
I think you should use the nautical. Let's start talking about tackling.
- [29:31]
Adam Fleming
Yeah, but I obviously don't understand them, so bear away.
- [29:34]
Simon Jack
No jibe.
- [29:36]
Sarah Montague
Ye.
- [29:37]
Alex
I'm not getting involved.
- [29:37]
Adam Fleming
I'm not even feeling ceaseless. We're back from all these.
- [29:40]
Sarah Montague
We're back on Howard's Way.
- [29:41]
Adam Fleming
Yeah, yeah, we're hitting the rocks here. I think I do understand that one. Our voyage is nearly over. Right. No, U turn is where you have to fully reverse back to your original position.
- [29:54]
Simon Jack
I'm with you.
- [29:55]
Adam Fleming
Because if you think about Andy Burnham on, on the EU for Example, he's sort of clarified his position that he would like to be back in the EU but a really, really, really long time in the future. Whereas Wes Streasing is saying he would be like to be back in the EU fairly soon. So that's not a U turn for Mandy Burnham.
- [30:12]
Sarah Montague
Okay. He's also changing his position stretching on the point at which people can claim benefits, isn't he? That's the other one. I'm. I'll just say changing position.
- [30:22]
Adam Fleming
Anyway, we are heading for the barber now. No, not the rocks. We're gonna dock and like, you know those sort of like rubber rings they have on the side, they're gonna like bounce onto the side of the quayside fenders as this.
- [30:34]
Alex
I grew up in Portsmouth. I feel like I should know a
- [30:36]
Adam Fleming
lot more about this, but you're actually a landlubber.
- [30:39]
Simon Jack
I feel sorry for the poor editor having to get rid of all this extended mess.
- [30:43]
Adam Fleming
This is staining. Right. We should also just say, though, that a lot of this conversation is prefaced on Andy Burnham winning the by election in Makerfield and then being a contender for the Labour leadership where he would have to get 81 nominations. And actually that first hurdle of winning the Makerfield by election election is still quite a significant one.
- [31:03]
Alex
Of course it is, because he's facing lots of different parties with lots of different candidates who are standing in that by election and Reform UK among them. And as we say, and we don't just say this for the sake of it, we say it because it is a very close. It's going to be a very hotly contested by election. If you want to find out more details about all the people that are standing that by election, then the details and the names of the candidates on the BBC news website, you can go and have a look at some of them. And actually, our brilliant colleagues actually at Radio Manchester are doing interviews with the candidates in that by election campaign as well. So you can hear a little bit more about what they have to say. But, yeah, has to overcome the hurdle of that by election a seat that, that Labour only held with a 5,000 or so majority at the last general election. And clearly the political landscape has changed quite a lot since 2024. And he is also having to fight that by election to the what we've been discussing now where he's trying to kind of make a pitch to the constituency and kind of set out his arguments for if he decides to throw his hat in the ring for any upcoming leadership contests. So the hurdles are high.
- [31:59]
Simon Jack
What's the latest on whether the Greens will still stand aside and sort of.
- [32:02]
Alex
The Greens have selected a candidate and their candidate is running in the by election.
- [32:06]
Simon Jack
Okay.
- [32:06]
Alex
So they are not. Because it was.
- [32:08]
Simon Jack
That would have been the other flank, which they were sort of losing all the other things.
- [32:11]
Sarah Montague
They just. They select a candidate but just don't do very much campaigning.
- [32:15]
Alex
Yeah. I mean, what Zach Polansky said, because it was floated this notion that perhaps the Greens could pull back a bit to allow Labor a bit of a clearer run in this byelection. But what the Greens have said under Zach Polanski is they want to be a competitive party because they've got this kind of momentum behind them at the moment and they want to be seen as a party that can fight and win in all parts of the country. And interesting as well, just as we're having the discussion, you've got that kind of battle going on on the left, if you like. And on the right more. You've got Reform UK who are really fighting this by election hard with their candidate. But you've also got the party Restore Britain.
- [32:46]
Adam Fleming
Yeah. Who Rupert doesn't have a question mark in the name. They're not called Restore Britain. They're not sure which country they want to restore. Restore Britain.
- [32:55]
Sarah Montague
If you refer to Reform, we get criticism because people don't understand what reform. You've got to say Reform uk because reform is obviously a verb, as is rest.
- [33:05]
Alex
Exactly. I was checking if it was Restore UK or Restore Britain, but it is Restore Britain. I think I'm right there.
- [33:09]
Sarah Montague
But it's so interesting, the sort of spoiler votes which, you know, arguably, I mean, you could say that Green, the other party.
- [33:16]
Alex
And in a close contest, in a hard fought contest, every single vote, you know, can really have an impact on the outcome.
- [33:22]
Adam Fleming
Right. I've got to do some. A public announcement which is. There's a QR code appearing on the screen right now. This will take you to the Edinburgh Fringe website where you will be able to order tickets for newscast live at the Edinburgh Fringe 10th to 14th August. We'll be doing an episode of Newscast every single day with a live audience of people in Edinburgh. And we would love you to come and see us. And the offer is open to people who've been on newscast as well, if you happen to be.
- [33:51]
Sarah Montague
That would be so exciting.
- [33:53]
Simon Jack
That's the first I've heard of this.
- [33:55]
Adam Fleming
Well, you know, we like to do our bookings at the last minute.
- [33:58]
Alex
I'm no frequent ages. No, I'm joking.
- [34:00]
Sarah Montague
We'd be so much fun.
- [34:01]
Simon Jack
Yeah.
- [34:02]
Adam Fleming
Please come and visit us in Edinburgh. You don't have to apply for a ticket. We can actually, we'll just email you and arrange it with you directly. But yeah, so that QR code, that's
- [34:09]
Sarah Montague
obviously, people expect it to be very funny, though. That's the only thing.
- [34:12]
Adam Fleming
I mean, my experience of the fringe is it's all sorts there, so it doesn't just have to be funny.
- [34:18]
Simon Jack
That's just as well.
- [34:19]
Adam Fleming
Yeah. Speak for yourself. Right, that's all for this episode of Newscast, which is not on a stage at a festival, but is in the classic newscast studio from where we do episodes of Newscast Newscast every single day, which are available to download on BBC Sounds. Bye bye. Newscast.
- [34:34]
Alex
Newscast from the BBC.
- [34:36]
Chris Mason
From one newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know and don't forget, you can email us anytime@new newscastbc.co.uk or if you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on 440-330-1239480. Be assured, I promise, we listen to everyone.
- [35:22]
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