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Why Is This Heatwave So Much Worse?
00:34:06
The UK recorded for the hottest June day has been broken for the second day in a row.
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Adam Fleming
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk.
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Amica Insurance Advertiser
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GEICO Customer
when I scraped my car in that parking garage, I was worried that it could be a long process to take care of it. Like a landscaper's first day trimming a hedge maze.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
I have definitely already been here.
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Adam Fleming
Now, was it left, right or right left? Well, maybe I'll cut a path out
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
and find my way back later, but
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GEICO Customer
it wasn't like that. I filed a claim in under two minutes on the GEICO, apparently, and they handled it from there. It was taken care of almost as quickly as it happened.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
It feels good to get help quick. It feels good to geico.
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Professor Ed Hawkins
Hello.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
So the first half of today's podcast is going to be about something that is happening, the heat wave, which pretty much everyone in Britain is experiencing in some form or another. And the second half is going to be about something that's about to happen, which is Andy Burnham's entrance to number 10 Downing street and what more we've learned about what kind of Prime Minister he might be. So those are two things we're going to be serving you on this episode
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BBC Newscast Announcer
of Newscast, Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
I will resign as leader of the Labour Party.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And what will you do?
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BBC Newscast Announcer
Stare at a wall?
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Professor Ed Hawkins
Humanity's next great voyage begins.
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Adam Fleming
You know, I like my bosses.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
I'll come on to them.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
It's supposed to be me as a doctor.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Ooh la la.
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Adam Fleming
Thinking about it like a panther helped.
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GEICO Customer
Do we play music now or what do we do?
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio. And as we're recording this episode of Newscast on Thursday, another Heat record has been broken. The hottest June day in England since records began and it was in Yton. And just before that, this morning on Thursday, the Met Office had extended their red extreme weather warning into Friday and it will now be in place for southern England, including London, until 9pm on Friday. So if you thought it was going to be a little bit less hot sooner rather than later, it's. It's now going to be later rather than sooner. So let's talk about what is causing this extreme weather and how it fits into the context of our changing climate, because we're Joined here in the newscast studio by the BBC's climate editor, Justin Rowlett. Hi, Justin.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
Hi there.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
You're in your shorts because I've been
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
rushing around the country, I know, trying to report this hot weather.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
But this is my dilemma because I still feel I can't wear shorts in the office because I'm a journalist in the BBC. But actually, maybe that's something that needs, that's a norm that needs to change for a warming world.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
But I must say I did feel self conscious as I flapped in on my Birkenstock shoes and Scruffy shoes.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
You look great though, Doc. Also down the line, and I can't see him, so I actually don't know what he's wearing, is Professor Ed Hawkins, who's a climate scientist at the University of Reading. Hello, Ed.
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Professor Ed Hawkins
Hi, Adam. How are you?
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Good, thanks. I can see you on a screen through the glass, but I can only see you from kind of chest up. So you could be wearing Bermuda shorts or swimming pants.
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Professor Ed Hawkins
I am in shorts. Yes. At home. Yes.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Now, Ed, just before we start our discussion, explain to newscasters why every couple of days I drink my morning coffee in my house out of one of your mugs.
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Professor Ed Hawkins
So, yes, I created a graphic called the Climate Stripes, which is a very simple representation of changes in temperature over time, just using simple colored stripes going from dark blues back in 150 years ago to bright reds today.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And just to link what's happening this summer with my mug. Your mug, your design. Are you going to have to do a new version of the mug that's got even darker red stripes for this year, last year, next year we've already
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Professor Ed Hawkins
had to change the colors over the last couple of years because they've been so hot to add extra colors to represent the extreme temperatures over the last couple of years.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Justin, we'll do the, we'll do the numbers in a bit, but just give me a flavor of what you've, how you've been experiencing the heat wave.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
So I started on Sunday morning on Primrose Hill in London, seeing this heat wave stretch ahead of us. And I have been rushing through the heat ever since. Yesterday was a particular adventure as we tried to chase, tried to get to the hottest place in Britain, phoning BBC Weather, getting, getting went to, you know, Hearn in just outside Bournemouth. And then we're going to go to somebody somewhere called Wigan Ford, which I think is an exotic. So yeah.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And you ended up in Gosport.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
And we ended up finally in Gosport. Funny. Got got to overlook gospel. We've got to be clear. There was. We couldn't actually make it to gospel. We got down and could see gospel in our camera. So we consider that a triumph.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And that's on the south coast.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
That's on the south coast in Hampshire, just outside Portsmouth. And it's actually quite an unusual place I think, Ed, correct me if I'm wrong, to have a really high, you know, record tune temperature because it's right by the sea. So you would have thought it'd be moderated by the sea breezes.
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Professor Ed Hawkins
Yeah. We often tend to find the records further inland and I think Yeovilton's actually just beaten the gospel record as we speak.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
36.4 I think it is, isn't it?
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Professor Ed Hawkins
Yeah.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Yes. And we're recording at quarter to four on Thursday afternoon and that record was set about an hour ago. So Justin, how are you explaining to people on the. I should call it the 9:30 news because the 10 o' clock news was on at 9:30 last night because of the football. The difference between hot weather and a hotter climate.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
I mean it's really interesting. I was on another, I was on a phone in program, Nikki Campbell's phone in yesterday morning and it was quite interesting. There were loads of people writing in saying, why are you making such a fuss about this? We've always had hot days, we've always had heat. Daves heat waves. What's the difference? And of course they're right, we have always had hot days, we've always had heat waves. But there is a big difference. Those heat waves are happening in a different world. So the, the kind of high pressure systems that give us clear air, give us lots of sunshine, light winds that allow the heat to really build up are now happening against a background of a significantly warmer world up 1.4 degrees Celsius on pre industrial levels. And that means the heat waves when they come, tend to be hotter, they tend to last for longer and they're more frequent. So yes, of course it is weather, but it's weather. As I said last night on the news, it is weather in a warming world.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And Ed, you've been looking at one of the periods of time that lots of people bring up when it's hot, which is the heat wave of 1976. And I remember my grandparents telling stories about the roads melting, you could fry an egg on the boot of the car. And like that's actually not actually.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
I think your parents would probably remember it as well.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Yeah. But I feel it's more that a story that my grandparents Told me. Which maybe tells you about the loquaciousness of the different generations of my family. But anyway, Ed, do that thing that lots of people have been doing this week, which is comparing the hot weather now with the very, very hot weather we had in 1976.
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Professor Ed Hawkins
Yeah. So 1976 was certainly an extraordinary heat wave for its time. We had 15 consecutive days where somewhere reached 32 degrees. And that's an unprecedented length for a heat wave. It came at the end of a year long drought. And I think that's what made it so memorable was that many people were queuing at standpipes for water in different places around the country. There were lots of wildfires, some of the schools were shut and so on. So yes, it was an extraordinary heat wa for its time. But obviously, as Justin says, the world has warmed over the past 50 years by about one point, about one degree since 1976. But the important point to note is that that does not mean that our heat waves have got just one degree hotter for southern England. What we've seen actually over the last 50 years is those heat waves have got 3 or 4 degrees hotter. So the extremes are getting hotter, much faster than you might expect if you're just talking about global averages. So that means that those 15 days above 32 in 1976 would be 15 days above 35 today. And that makes a big difference. It probably doubles the mortality that we would expect to see from such an event.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And also, Justin, this incredibly hot weather has coincided with London Climate Week, when lots of people come to London to talk about climate change and the science and what the political solutions and responses to that are, which is a kind of amazing coincidence. Where is the conversation about climate change with the kind of business, political, scientific elite?
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
It's interesting, isn't it? I mean, the political elite obviously is much more divided than it was even like four or five years ago. I mean, it's hard to remember, isn't it? There used to be a kind of consensus, not just among the political parties here in Britain, but among leaders around the world, that this was a really serious issue that the world needed to come together and tackle. And we've seen that really does not melt away, haven't we? And then ironically, you see these kind of super hot heat wave coming, remember, really early in the year for us to have a heat wave like this, June instead of late July, August, which you typically expect. So I think, you know, that's really striking. It was quite interesting. I mean, look, obviously Climate Week is climate focused, so you don't get the kind of businesses that aren't engaged in tackling climate change. But I, you know, really interesting to see some big players out there. The Octopus event was absolutely huge.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
The Energy Company 3 or the Energy
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
Company or Electricity Company, got three or four thousand people together, had this sort of big roster of speakers, obviously kind of literally putting its tent in the, on the ground saying, you know, we want to be part of the climate discussion. And it is an interesting company in that here you've got a big new company, multi billion pound company employing what I think 7,8000 people here in the UK supplying energy to 7 million households, which has kind of forged a new path in energy over just a few years. And that, you know, often we, it's this kind of behavior you expect more from a tech firm. And I think, you know, we should perhaps feel optimistic to see these kind of developments, these kind of new business, exciting new businesses developing in the clean energy space.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And Justin, as part of the conversations around Climate Change Week, the Climate Change committee, who kind of mark the government's homework on cutting emissions, published their latest big progress reports. I've kind of skimmed the summary. I haven't read all the annexes as maybe I would have done in the olden days when it was more part of the daily political conversation. But what's their assessment this week?
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
Top line is emissions continue to fall down 1.8% 2025 on 2024. Really interesting picture. They're saying on the one hand electric vehicles, which, remember the government is talking about weakening the electric, the zero emissions mandate, which is a requirement that car manufacturers sell a certain proportion of cars and get fined really quite heavily if they don't sell as many low emission vehicles as they should. They're talking about water it, watering it down. At the same time, the Climate Change committee is saying, actually sales are doing really well. One in four cars are now fully electric cars sold in the UK compared to one in five. That's a significant change, 20% to 25%. Big change going in the right direction. They say we can see a pathway now to a kind of fully electric car fleet in the uk. Obviously that will take many decades to happen. On the other hand, heat pumps are really quite disappointing. The rate of growth of heat pumps has fallen massively 7% last year compared to 56% the year before. They're saying that's to do with a grant. But when you, when pressed, they say, look, there are some underlying issues about the cost and the returns because when you push them on this, you know Even the Climate Change Committee admits that actually it's very hard to save money with a heat pump without a flexible tariff, without solar panels, without batteries, without all the other stuff. And that, of course, Adam, is expensive.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And the whole time I've even known about the existence of the Climate Change Committee, they've basically been saying the same big thing, which is that electricity is going to have to become cheaper as we all transition to using electricity for everything, rather than, say, using gas for your heating in the winter, which does not seem like a comfortable subject to discuss right now. And actually, you realize there's some pointers there for Andy Burnham taking over as Prime Minister. If he really is serious about cutting people's energy bills, then actually making electricity cheaper by putting fewer government policies on your electricity bill would be a very quick, fast way of changing the price
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
and also a very expensive thing to do. And that is the big challenge, because
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
it then goes on to your tax bill as opposed to your energy bill. Right, Ed, a few science things about what we're living through right at the moment. What is the. The role of humidity in how this heat wave feels for us all individually?
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Professor Ed Hawkins
Yes, Adam, that's right. So this heat wave is a bit different to some of the others we've experienced in recent years, and that it is much more humid this time around. And a more humid heat wave is more dangerous because it feels hotter. We've got these feels like temperature, which is often quoted. And the reason for this is that when it's more humid, the body finds it harder to give off heat through sweating. Because it's more humid air around you. Yes. And so it feels a lot hotter and is therefore more dangerous.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And is that when we hear people talk about the wet bulb effect? That's what that is, exactly right, yes. Just giving people things to say in the pub when they're at the beer garden, they can talk about the wet bulb effect. Makes you sound like an expert. And then another thing, Ed, sounds like a fun evening. Yeah. And then, Ed, this other thing that people have been talking about is just the fact that it's not getting much less hotter at night, so there's no respite.
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Professor Ed Hawkins
We've seen the records broken for warmest night across across the country as well. And, yes, that makes it really hard to sleep. I know. I struggled to sleep last night. When the temperature doesn't drop below 20 degrees, we call it a tropical night. And we're seeing more and more of those happen, and we'll continue to see more of those in the future. As well.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
I just wanted to say I'm in Cardiff, so my team is based in Cardiff. Cardiff, 28 degrees last night, 28 degrees in Cardiff overnight tonight. I think we looked at 3 and 4am it's about 25 degrees in. 25 degrees in Cardiff. I mean, this is a really hot and unusual heat wave.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
But here's an interesting thing about language. When you say a tropical night, your brain straightaway thinks of holidays and of something pleasant and you realize, no, a tropical night in the UK with our houses built the way they are, with no air conditioning and not enough ventilation and great insulation for keeping the heat in in winter, a tropical night is not a great thing to live through. And that's why I'm intrigued about the. The red heat health alerts from the Met Office and the UK Health Security Agency. Justin. Trying to sort of not jolt people or scare them, but change the language from heat wave siesta to no. This is something you need to worry about because of your health and the health of vulnerable people in your family.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
But I think that's you've hit on something really interesting which I think this heat wave people really have experienced negatively. And if you go out, there aren't people out and about.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Yes. So quiet.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
Even on, kind of, even on Sunday when the heat was just beginning to build, we noticed. No, I mean, there were a few people sunbathing, but not very many. Most people who were out were sitting under trees. It's like now in the UK in heat waves. It's got so hot, it frankly is unpleasant.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And yeah, I just saw that the London ambulance service said that on Wednesday they responded to the highest number of life threatening emergencies in their history and that is because of the, of the heat. Ed, we had a big chat with Emma Pinchbeck from the Climate Change Committee on newscast a few weeks ago about adaptation, about what are the things you do to like the fabric of the nation that make these very hot heat episodes more bearable. Are you seeing examples of adaptation actually happening? And actually places where people will be feeling more comfortable in this heat wave than they would have done otherwise.
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Professor Ed Hawkins
I think those who've got air conditioning will be feeling rather smug at the moment that they can enjoy the cooler temperatures. But no, I think adaptation is a key issue for us to learn how to deal with heat. I think that's particularly true for people's workplaces which are not designed necessarily for the hot temperatures and they can't be as productive when it's so hot. Hot. I think it's an issue for Our hospitals, you know, trying to recover from surgery on a hot hospital ward is not going to be much fun. And for our schools as well. We've already seen, you know, lots of schools shut at the moment. And, you know, imagine trying to take exams in a hot, stifling exam hall, trying to think about your future. It's not a good place to be.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Justin, have you seen examples of good adaptations?
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
I have. I wanted to have something optimistic on Monday. We went to a cool space set up in a housing estate in Tottenham Hale, kind of, you know, working class community in London. And it was absolutely lovely. Everybody in the community who was involved had gone out for a little walk and then come in and they were sitting around chatting and they were saying what a wonderfully cool space it was. It's called the Engine Room in, in. In Tottenham Hale. So if you're warm and you're in Tottenham, there is a place. There is a place for you to go. And the nice thing was they made it cool. What was there was an air conditioned space. It was a community center that. Air conditioned. And the idea was you go in, you have a cup of coffee, cup of tea. They had art stuff there and it was kind of what was lovely. It was like a focus for the community. And the people who'd come in were really enjoying being with each other. And obviously they felt a sense of relief coming in. One of them said, chilling for the mind, chilling for the body, and that it was a really chilled space. It was lovely.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Ed, I can't remember if it was you that taught me this trick, but putting a bottle of frozen tap water in front of your fan in the bedroom at night is a really good way of dialing down the heat in your bedroom. Except, since you've given me that advice, I've moved house and I do not have any fans anymore. So that's not what I've been doing this week.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
Why didn't you take your phones with you?
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
I don't know. Well, because I was probably in denial about our warming world, even though I spent many years covering the story. Right, Ed, anything else you want to tell us about what we're living through this period?
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Professor Ed Hawkins
Well, it's very clear that things are hotter now than they were. And that's primarily because our greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from burning fossil fuels, are making every summer and every heat wave hotter than they would have been in a world without those emissions. And so, yes, we need to adapt to what's going on now and to deal with the heat better, but for the future Heat waves are just going to get hotter and hotter and hotter until we manage to reach global net zero greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize the climate.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
I would just underscore what Ed said. This isn't a natural disaster, this is a man made disaster and we are continuing to make it worse.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And Justin, before you go, would you like to do a bit of marketing?
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
I would love to, yeah. I'd like to plug my new series, 10 fights that made the Green Movement. A few fascinating exploration of the conflicts that created the modern Green movement. We start back with the Greenpeace, the original Greenpeace that founded the movement, on this crazy journey of dope smoking hippies getting lost in the Arctic trying to stop a nuclear test and how that's developed into the movement that we see now. Utterly fascinating program made with the assistance of members of the newscast team. So, you know, quality assured.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Absolutely. And available on BBC Science from Monday.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
Exactly.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Thank you, Justin. Thank you very much.
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Justin Rowlett, BBC Climate Editor
Thank you.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And Professor Ed Hawkins, thanks to you too.
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Professor Ed Hawkins
Thank you very much.
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Adam Fleming
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
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BBC Newscast Announcer
As yet another British Prime Minister steps down, is the country still feeling the effects of Brexit 10 years on? I'm Tristan Redmond, one of the hosts of the Global Story podcast from the BBC. Keir Starmer has become the sixth leader to resign since the Brexit referendum. Ever since that vote in 2016, the country's been racked with political instability. When will it end? For more, listen to the global story on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts now.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
On Thursday afternoon, the National Executive Committee, which runs the Labour Party, set out the timetable for their leadership contest for finding a new Prime Minister. Although we know that there probably isn't going to be a contest, but there might be anyway. So here are the dates and the dates that matter. So we already knew that the nominations will open on Thursday the 9th of July, and this is MPs nominating somebody. And that window will close on the 15th of July at 6pm Then that is when the window opens for affiliates to the Labour Party. So trade unions and other organizations, their window for nominations will close on Thursday 16th July at 6pm So a day later, and then if there is only one candidate nominated, Andy Barnum, he will then be crowned to carry on the coronation metaphor at a special conference on Friday 17th July. So if no one else gets 81 plus nominations to challenge him, the new Prime Minister will be officially endorsed on Friday 17th July and presumably will walk up Downing street pretty soon after that special conference. However, if there is a challenger, the next phase will be the constituency Labour Party's nominating their person. And then there'll be a ballot of members and supporters starting on Thursday 6 August, closing on Thursday 27 August, with a result announced at a special conference on Saturday 29 August. So in the now quite unlikely looking event of there being a challenger to Andy Burnham, the winner will be announced on Saturday 29 August. And one other little thing that we weren't totally sure of has now been confirmed. On Monday 13th July, there will be a hustings in front of Labour MPs for all of the prospective candidates. So that's prospective candidates. So you wouldn't have had to get all your nominations by then. So maybe, I don't know, somebody like Al Carnes, the former Defense Minister, might say, I want to be in the hustings up against Andy Burnham to test him. And then Al Carnes wouldn't have had to get 81 nominations to earn his place in the hustings. So actually that could turn out to be a slightly more interesting event than, than circumstances might suggest. Now that's the timetable for Andy Burnham or someone else becoming Prime Minister. Let's talk about reactions to Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister. We had a really interesting conversation with Helen McNamara yesterday, the former Deputy Cabinet Secretary. Today we're going to have an interesting conversation with Simon Jack, the BBC's business editor, because he's been at the conference of the British Chambers of Commerce testing the temperature, if you pardon the pun, about the new Prime Minister amongst business leaders. And here's my conversation with Simon Jack which we had about 3pm after he'd hot footed it. I've done it again from that conference. Hello, Simon.
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Adam Fleming
Hello, Adam.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
Before we give a sense of what was happening with the business community, how is the business community coping with the heat in this conference center?
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Adam Fleming
I have to say that the air conditioning in there, I'm not sure it completely packed up, but it was certainly under par for the beating sun that was just in Parliament Square today.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
And does it make any business leader think, oh yeah, I really need to double down on climate action because this conference is happening during a heat wave. This proves the climate scientists might have a point. It's not really a subject.
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Adam Fleming
Well, weirdly, it did come up, but not in those exact terms. And in fact quite the opposite was true because the Chancellor, on what might be her swan song in front of a business community probably will be, was sort of pressed on the government's approach to oil and gas exploration, which as you know, has been a contentious issue. Got the unions want to, you know, you know, do more oil and gas exploration. You've got the jobs for the jobs for the revenue for the tax etc and you've got, you know, parts of the government who are sympathetic to that. And on the other hand you've got Ed Miller Band who is staunchly resisting those calls and there's clearly a bit of a war of words and actually I would say ideas coming to a bit of fruition there. She was asked about it and there's two big projects which are coming up for approval. One is called Rosebank, one's called Jackdaw. They're big fields and they've been held up through the courts. And she said that she hoped that they would go through. Now, that is not the same thing as ripping up manifesto commitments on new oil and gas drilling, but clearly there is a direction of travel, which. And also if you factor in the Aberdeenshire Conservative victory when they.
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Adam in the Newscast Studio
In the by election, in the by
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Adam Fleming
election, where they basically ran partly on a ticket of saying that we will, you know, say, yeah, green light, new oil and gas, then I think a lot of people are thinking about, yes, we all want renewables. Do we have to do that? And basically, if, you know, can we ride both horses rather than shoot one of them? And shooting one of them being oil and gas. So it did come up.
- [25:52]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
And of course, the reason that Rosebank and Jackdaw are not necessarily scientific examples of net zero being ripped up is because they were projects that were basically approved already under previous government, stopped by the courts, and this government's having to decide whether to approve them again.
- [26:06]
Adam Fleming
Yeah. And all I can tell you is that the people I know who are associated with these projects are supremely confident that they will find a way to approve them. Where we go from there in terms of new oil and gas licenses, I think. Still up for grab.
- [26:19]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
It was interesting hearing what Rachel Reeves was saying, because she was talking as if she still had months and maybe even years, years in the job.
- [26:25]
Adam Fleming
It was funny, wasn't it? Because she was. She defended. She went out there to defend her record. Two years ago, she was in front of that audience as a wannabe chancellor, shadow Chancellor, promising to be pro business, pro growth, whatever. Today she was. Possibly her last address to that audience as Chancellor, defending her record and. And also saying that, you know, I think I've got more to do and that's my advice. The next Chancellor will keep doing what I'm doing. So was that a subtle pitch or not so subtle pitch to keep her job and saying that stability was important. Stability in her mind, I think, meaning keep the same Chancellor. But I think that there was. Yeah, I don't think she misunderstands that, you know, the way the wind is blowing and that she's very likely to be replaced as Chancellor.
- [27:10]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
And did it feel like there was a Chancellor recruitment process going on at this conference and the lots of the business people there were on the imaginary recruitment panel?
- [27:18]
Adam Fleming
Well, it was very interesting because I asked the question, obviously, because it's a very key one for business. Who's going to be the next Chancellor. And there's. What I can tell you is there is no consensus candidate. I had a couple of streeting votes, I saw, you know, a couple of Miller Band quotes, a couple of people very anti Miller Band. I had a couple of people saying, I don't care who it is, it's what they do rather than the person in the job that matters. And what they want is after a couple of bruising years where they thought a government that had a charm offensive to business, saying we are pro growth, pro business, feel they were slightly misled and that, you know, big increases in employment, taxes, national living wage, a ralph of new employment rights, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, have been actually quite anti business. So they're saying that, you know, we, we felt that we were kind of sold a bit of a pup first time round. That can't happen again.
- [28:08]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
And are the business leaders feeling that Andy Burnham is pro business or that he might carry on in that less pro business vein that you just mentioned there?
- [28:15]
Adam Fleming
Well, it's interesting, I think that there was a kind of will the real Andy Burnham please stand up? To quote Eminem, he's already gone back
- [28:22]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
home to Manchester after two days, sorry, three days.
- [28:24]
Adam Fleming
It's sort of. He's got one very powerful card which to play with that community, which is that growth in Manchester, economic growth in Manchester has, it's been faster than the UK as a whole. So the question is, can you take that secret source of, for example, combined authorities, more joined up, planning, all that kind of stuff and replicate it at a national scale? And so there was quite a lot of interest in whether devolution is greater. Devolution is going to be, you know, can unlock greater growth. So there's a lot of interest and I would say enthusiasm for that idea, but there was some caution in the sense that if you're going to allow local authorities to raise additional taxes, revenue raising, split up income taxes, all that kind of stuff, then there's a bit more nervousness about that. How would that actually work? So I think a lot of people are feeling their way, you know, as to what a Burnham Premier Premium Prime Ministership might look like.
- [29:23]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
And that conversation reminds me of the conversation we had Yesterday with Helen McNamara, former Deputy Cabinet Secretary, and she was saying that her reading of what Andy Burnham has said in the last few days is that he's going to do, yeah, big thing about devolution, fiscal devolution. So allowing areas to change their tax regimes to benefit certain industries so that you can create these Big, big clusters. But she was also talking about how Andy Burnham is inheriting quite a lot of work that's already underway. And actually, Rachel Reeves announced some of that, that early thinking about devolution of tax revenues in the budget the last time. So there's some, there's some blueprints being being worked on already.
- [29:58]
Adam Fleming
And we should say that Andy Burnham, in the minds of many, is standing on the shoulders of giants in his. In predecessors who are city officials, Richard Lee, Sarah Bernstein, etc, who kind of laid the groundwork for a kind of stability.
- [30:10]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
So if you've got 10, because they
- [30:13]
Adam Fleming
were running Manchester before, and if you've got local authorities where, you know, you got one side, on one side of the road, it's this authority, on this side of the road, it's the other. So who gets to dig up the road and who has to tell all that kind of stuff? And that does matter when it tries to. So Andy Burnham's got a reputation within the business community as someone who appears to be able to get things done and that. I heard that phrase a lot today.
- [30:35]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
Although so much of Manchesterism, as it's come to be known, that you, that you witness when you're in Manchester seems to be based on investment from abroad. For example, there is a whole tram terminus called the Etihad Campus because it's the Etihad Stadium, and lots of other buildings that were built by and sponsored by Etihad because they're based on investment from the Gulf. I mean, that's something the government under Keir Starmer was doing in a big way anyway, wasn't it? Taking. Taking the tin around places like the
- [31:04]
Adam Fleming
Gulf with, With quite a lot of success in the early years. I mean, that's the interesting thing, because one of the biggest trump cards that the government played over the last couple of years was saying to international investors, what, you know, you've had five Prime Ministers, blah, blah, blah, seven business secretaries, whatever the numbers are, we can offer you a bit of stability. And so you're going to be dealing with us from now on. Now, obviously, clearly, in the current circumstances, that card is harder to play when we've got a new look, government on the way. So. But yeah, so. So there's a question about foreign direct investment, sort of. The Etihads, of course, have a big relationship with Manchester City. Of course, you know that Manchester City, the football team, so that obviously helps. But they also had on, on stage today, Andy Haldane. Now, he used to be the chief economist of the bank of England. He's currently the President of British Chambers of Commerce. And importantly, he very much has the ear of Andy Burnham. He's one of his key advisors, along with Jim o', Neill, Lord o', Neill, who used to be former economist for Goldman Sachs. And what was interesting about Andy Hald is he said, we need more British capital going into British business. And he gave a very clear idea of how that would work, saying that at the moment we've got $9 trillion worth of sort of personal wealth in the UK. And he likened that to a reservoir next to what he likened to a farm, which is the UK economy. And he said, at the moment, this reservoir isn't irrigating the farm, which is right next door. So you need to get pension savings and put it into the UK economy. And you think, well, how do you do that? Do you force them to do it? What you do was, was the clear message is, at the moment, when you put money into your pension, you get tax breaks on it. And so you're getting £60 billion worth of tax breaks across the UK, most of which money is being invested in the stock markets abroad. Less than 5% of pension savings goes into UK shares. That is is spectacularly low compared to our competitors. Like, for example, Australia, it's about 40%, in the US, it's 60%, what have you. And so we're giving a massive tax break for savers to put money into Nvidia and Amazon. And he clearly was trying to say
- [33:18]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
that's another example of where Andy Barnum and whoever his Chancellor is, might end up being Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves. Plus plus plus because Rachel Reeves was already doing lots of things well, trying to encourage people's savings to go into UK stocks. For example, reducing the amount you can put in a cash isa.
- [33:33]
Adam Fleming
Correct.
- [33:33]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
To encourage you to put it in a stocks and shares isa.
- [33:36]
Adam Fleming
Yeah. And he referenced that. He said there are two major issues. There's one called the Mansion House Accord, which was getting a bunch of insurance and pension companies to sort of voluntarily, but not really voluntarily, put 5% of all their assets into UK assets. And there's also the cash ISA, which you say basically reduce the amount of cash you can hold because it's not a very productive asset. I think this was a much more powerful lever that Andy Haldane was talking about, which is that you're not going to get a tax break for investing in foreign companies. You're only going to get a tax break if you invest in UK companies. And I feel, you know that to me, you know With a little bit of financial nails seems to me quite a powerful lever.
- [34:18]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
Right, Interesting. It's now making me think that have Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves been like, diet Andy Burnham, and what we're now going to get is full fat, full fat or Andy Burnham 0, depending on your tastes. So, yeah, intriguing. Anything else you picked up from the very hot conference center? We haven't discussed.
- [34:35]
Adam Fleming
Basically, this is a latent level of optimism in the sense that, you know, inflation is coming down. And when Rachel Reeves defended her record, she said, listen, her defense was that, you know, when I came in, public finance is a little out of control. Lots of unfunded spending promises. We basically had to put business up on taxes. We let. We took it easy on you in the last budget. But we've got public finances, inflation on a. On a firmer footing. And I think there was a general acceptance that that was probably right. But what they want is just. They just want to be left alone in a way to get on with it. And this is very interesting. So this is where Burnham is. More Manchesterism comes in, because Andy Burnham is not a get out of the way and let business do what they want to do. It's a much more muscular interventionist role that he imagines for the state, and he says, it worked in Manchester, it can work elsewhere. That not everyone is convinced by that,
- [35:29]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
although sometimes that muscular role involves saying to housing developers, actually, you can build less affordable homes than you might have to do in other places to get this development built. Yeah, well, be muscular in the sort of pulling back rather than pushing forward.
- [35:42]
Adam Fleming
Yeah. Well, anyway, the. The thing I heard more than often I mentioned this already, is that we. He looks like someone who can get things done. And that was the. If that's true, then, you know, we're all ears.
- [35:52]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
Fascinating. Simon, thank you very much.
- [35:54]
Adam Fleming
Pleasure, Adam.
- [36:02]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
Right, that's nearly it for this episode, except we've got another entry for supporter reporter. It's from Nathan. He says, hi, newscast team. I'd love to put myself forward as your fan reporter for England. Oh. Or the USA at the 2026 World Cup. I'm English, an England fan through and through, and I now live in Frisco In Texas, about 30 minutes north of Dallas, which is one of the host cities. I've been in the US for 11 years, married my American wife, Nina in July 2025. Well, Nathan and Nina, you can be our supporter reporters for the USA in Texas. And that is my first wedding anniversary present for you because presumably that anniversary is coming up very very soon and may even be during the World Cup. So many things to celebrate simultaneously. So, Nathan and Nina, thank you very much for messaging us and thank you very much for listening. And if you would like to bid to be a supporter reporter for the remaining countries, there's still quite a lot left, actually. You can email us newscastbc.co.uk or you can WhatsApp us on 033-01-239480. Remember, we're looking for a newscaster in every single country that is represented at the World cup, either because you're there temporarily or more permanently. Like Nathan is. Right. We'll be back with another newscast very soon.
- [37:21]
Professor Ed Hawkins
Bye bye.
- [37:22]
BBC Newscast Announcer
Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.
- [37:24]
Professor Ed Hawkins
Well, thank you for making it to the end of another newscast. You clearly ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? And then, without having to do anything else, our meandering chat will miraculously make its way to your phone.
- [37:51]
Amica Insurance Advertiser
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- [38:15]
Adam in the Newscast Studio
It feels good to save some hard earned cash.
- [38:18]
Adam Fleming
It feels good to geico.