Adam Fleming (1:46)

Can I have an apology, please? I trust almost nobody. Then daddy has to sometimes do strong language. Next time in mosque.

Darshini David (1:53)

I feel delulu with no salulu.

Jim Reed (1:55)

Take me down the Downing Street. Let's go have a tour. Blimey.

Adam Fleming (2:00)

Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio. Lyse Doucet is here. Hello, Lys.

Lisa Bryant (2:03)

I'd like to say really good to join you, but it's not a very good time for so many of our podcast friends.

Adam Fleming (2:10)

And I have to say it did for me. The events of the last 24 hours makes the whole situation feel a bit scarier now. And Darshini David is here as well to explain why. Hello, Darshini.

Darshini David (2:19)

Hello, Adam. And yes, you only drag me in when things are scary and Downbeat. So I'm really sorry about that.

Adam Fleming (2:23)

Right, Let's I think go through the timeline of just why the events of the last 24 hours have been so significant. And it's all to do with attacks by various parties in this conflict on energy related infrastructure lies. Where do you want to start this particular bit of the story?

Lisa Bryant (2:38)

Let me take you back just to an earlier time in the war. And our listeners may remember that the skies of Iran went from black to orange because Israel attacked fuel depots and terminals, sending literally rivers of fire through the streets of Tehran. And then the reports started coming in that American officials called up Israel and said, what are you doing? Oil prices are soaring. Don't attack the oil depots. And Iranians said, why are you attacking our infrastructure, our future? This is even those who had called for Israeli and American strikes in the hope of bringing about change. So then it quieted. And then suddenly, yesterday, in a major escalation, Israel attacked the South Paris natural gas oil fields. The world's biggest oil field, jointly operated by Iran and Qatar. In Iran is called South Paris. In Qatar it's called the North Field. Israel attacked the Iranian part, but Qatar was furious and Iran immediately vowed retaliation and carried out retaliation on energy infrastructure right across the Gulf. Then in the middle of the night, suddenly, as he often does, President Trump posted on Truth Social saying he didn't know anything about this attack. In capital letters, he said Israel will not attack again. And he warned that because Iran had retaliated against a liquefied natural gas initial lng, liquefied natural gas plant in Qatar and elsewhere, that if Iran continued to retaliate, that he would literally take out all of their energy infrastructure. But Adam, in the run up to President Trump's angry post, there were articles in both Israeli and American media saying, quoting unnamed American and Israeli officials, that this attack had been fully coordinated with, with the United States. And in fact, President Trump quoting this was quoting an official, saw it as a one and done. If we attack Iran's oil energy infrastructure, maybe then they will open the Strait of Hormuz. This was never going to happen.

Adam Fleming (4:43)

Excellent summary. But just for people who don't follow Donald Trump on Truth Social and don't

Lisa Bryant (4:48)

see his whole post, they don't.

Adam Fleming (4:49)

Well, I mean, I can understand why people might not want to do that. This post, even by his standards, was very dramatic and very angry and raised the stakes quite dramatically while also trying to lower the stakes.

Lisa Bryant (5:03)

Those who do follow and those who don't. I mentioned about capital letters when he really wants to emphasize something, he puts it in capital letters so that people take even greater notice. But it was full of fury. Given what I described as the background that the Americans had made it absolutely clear to Israel, don't attack. I find it almost, shall I say, almost impossible that Israel would not go back knowing the Americans did not want this and attack this natural gas field that is largely owned and operated by President Trump's close friend, the Emir of Qatar. That would be unthinkable.

Adam Fleming (5:44)

And Darshini, when you were scrambling to cover this story on Wednesday night, I mean, what were the first things that were running through your head about the implications of all of this?

Darshini David (5:51)

As Lee says, this is a whole new frontier in the war, right? And over the weekend, when that island that contains so much of Iran's infrastructure, infrastructure war struck by the U.S. you know, we heard President Trump saying, carg island, we're going for the military targets here. We are not going for the infrastructure. And that was sort of held back as a threat. And we all went, we know why that is. That would unleash a new level of chaos on global energy markets. So we had that attack and you know, the world went, oh my goodness. And that's cut on the other side, which is such a big producer of liquid natural gas. And then of course we heard Iran saying we're going to retaliate. These are the kind of targets we're looking at. This is the area, areas which should be thinking of evacuating. And that refinery in Qatar, the all important refinery, suffering what it calls extensive damage. And we are still waiting to hear at this point exactly how extensive that damage is. Qatar already said we are going to have to, you know, hold off on fulfilling our contracts, existing contracts. And now, you know, we are looking at a more grave situation. So at the moment, many people are saying before Qatar could have been back up and running. If facilities cease tomorrow, back up and running full capacity within weeks. We're, we now could be talking about months. So that is what we're talking about in terms of supply issues for the world overall, doesn't mean the supply crunch here, but it's a new level of threat and therefore we're seeing this really elevated prices going on.

Adam Fleming (7:13)

And basically the price of liquefied natural gas, which is quite a mouthful to say, that's why they forwarded to LNG is now up 60%, isn't it? It is as of this morning.

Darshini David (7:22)

It is absolutely. And that is not something anybody was betting onto this year. And we should say when you look at, for Example, what's going on here and we look at what we call European futures and the kind of things that influence energy bills in the uk.

Adam Fleming (7:35)

In other words, market predictions for how much oil and gas will cost in the future.

Darshini David (7:38)

Absolutely, yes. And when we think about how that could influence bills here, they're not at the kind of levels we saw in 2022. It's really important to say that because it is a scary time for people

Lisa Bryant (7:48)

thinking about Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Darshini David (7:50)

Absolutely. We're not at that level yet. Right. By any means. But we are at a point now in the bank of England and I will be talking this bit later, but they have been setting out some of their thoughts today and they have said that, you know, those kind of futures about 35, 40% above what had been assumed. And if that carries on and it's a big if, isn't it? That's when you really feel the pain. So, yes, there's both the price impact and also the potential supply impact too.

Adam Fleming (8:13)

Lisa, I'm aware that all of this was happening sort of about 20 hours ago. Does that mean everyone's sort of gone to this brink, which was what we've seen with this attack on this gas field and peered over the edge and maybe retreated a bit? Is there any evidence of that?

Lisa Bryant (8:29)

We've been at so many brinks. Darcini mentioned Karg island where President Trump, he likes to use the word obliterated. Someone invented the word re obliterated because he says we've wiped it out and then suddenly it's not wiped out at all. But he took out on Kharg island, which exports, at least before the war, 90% of Iran's oil, crude oil, that he only took out the military installations there in the bases, but he left the oil infrastructure intact. So breathed a sigh of relief. But every day the price, I think the nerves are jangling and President Trump keeps saying, oh, it's short term pain for long term gain. It's just a short excursion. I could end the war at any day. But we just don't seem, and he's now a man, as you know, who has always been mindful of the markets they said doesn't even seem to be bothered about. So it's really a big question is what is happening to President Trump. Let me, if I may, I'll give you an example of that's been on my mind today, September 2025, when Israel sent missiles into the Qatari capital Doha to assassinate senior Hamas officials as they were meeting. President Trump said that day, oh, I Was only told about it when the missiles were in the air by my US military. To which Israel afterwards said, no, no, no, this was coordinated full with the Americans. The Qataris were furious. President Trump was furious. Another post on Truth Social in capital letters. That turned out to be a turning point in the Gaza war. Well, it led to a ceasefire, Yes, a shaky ceasefire. President Trump then realized he was at risk of really angering one of his most important political and personal allies in the Gulf. These countries that he signed boasted about signing trillion dollar contracts. Suddenly I remember in that he started listening more closely to Qatar and other Arab states who were saying, you've got to find a way to end this war. And it did lead to, I don't know, I don't know that this is this kind of turning point. We don't know what Qatar is saying because right now, Qatar. And as we're recording, Qatar's about to do another press conference with a visiting Turkish official. They're furious at Iran, but they're also furious at the United States. They had tried to stop this war. They warned President Trump, don't attack Iran will unleash a war with far reaching repercussions. Which is also raises constantly. This whole war is raising questions about people keep saying, why did it start and where will it end? But who was advising President Trump the other day when a journalist said to him, weren't you warned? Did you understand that if you did attack Iran, Iran would retaliate against Gulf states? He goes, no, I was shocked. None of my experts said that. And there was like a gasp from the journalists because Iranian officials said that ad nauseam. If you attack us, even I knew

Adam Fleming (11:37)

that was likely to happen.

Lisa Bryant (11:38)

And if you knew it. But President Trump denied all knowledge of that happening. So with every day which passes, and yet again with that post on Truth Social, did he not know, could he possibly have not known that South Parse Field linked to Qatar was going to come under attack and that oil prices would spiral again?

Adam Fleming (11:57)

But Lisa, just before we started recording, there was a joint statement from the leaders of the uk, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan about the Strait of Hormuz. But actually that statement starts off by talking about these attacks on energy infrastructure, basically saying there should be a moratorium, both sides or all the sides should stop attacking them. But then they go on to say that they're all working together on a plan to try and get shipping restarted through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's quite a big development.

Lisa Bryant (12:25)

I think what Sir Keir Stommer and other European leaders are trying to do, they're trying to separate keeping open this critical waterway, the strait of Hormuz. 20% of the world's oil traffic goes through that, as well as essential ingredients for making components like fertilizer. So we talk a lot about oil, but food prices, Darsini knows about this food prices, farmers fields are also going to be feeling the impact of this. So they don't want, they're still really nervous about getting dragged into President Trump's war. Cause he didn't consult them about this war. But they do want to open the Strait of Hormuz because they are all affected by it and they also want to have a plan. President Trump says, okay, give me minesweepers, give me. Without actually being clear what are they going to do? How are you actually going to open the Straits of Hormuz? And on the sidelines of this, you have countries like India, the Indian Foreign Secretary Jaishankar saying, well, we've been talking to Iran. Our Indian flag gas tankers are actually going through the Strait of Hormuz. A Pakistani vessel went through the Strait of Hormuz. And they're saying, well, why don't we talk to Iran rather than trying to fight against Iran? And there were reports, some of them were denied. There was a report in the ft that some European countries have actually did reach, have reached out to Iran. I think right now Iran is so focused on the war that it wouldn't want to go into any wide ranging diplomacy until the attacks stop. But so they're looking at different ways. Rather than simply saying yes to President Trump without knowing where it's going to end. Because, and Darcini knows this, this idea. President Trump keeps saying, I asked them to do something really minor. It's not minor, it's very costly, it's very risky. They don't know what they will meet from Iran, whether it' swhether the strait is heavily mined, whether they have these, what they call them, go fast boats, we have to keep emphasizing every day. And Pete Haggs has just got up again and gave a press conference in Washington. President Trump gets said, we've destroyed their military, we've destroyed the ballistic, we destroy, they have nothing left. But Iran is proving day in, day out, yes, it has suffered significantly, but it is still able to fight.

Adam Fleming (14:42)

And it's interesting because you read that statement and there are so many references to the international law of the seas, UN resolutions about freedom of navigation. And you can see why those leaders are doing that and that is to delineate it. From the US Israeli war against Iran. It's like we're trying to solve a different problem here. Darcini. At midday today, the bank of England did their interest rate decision. They decided to hold them flat at 3.75%, which in a parallel universe of a couple of weeks ago, we were expecting it to come down again.

Darshini David (15:08)

We talked about this at the time. Yeah. And we said, you know, we should get a March rate cut. But we've actually heard, not just in the bank of England, but this week, and in fact, in the last couple of days for the bank of England, the European Central bank, the Federal Reserve, bank of Japan and also Canada Central bank. So the G7 are covered there, too. And it's been really fascinating to see what they make of this. And, you know, on the one hand, we have oil analysts saying, oh, my goodness, we could take months to get back to full production, et cetera, et cetera. We've got energy prices elevated. But if you look at where they are and some of the levels, people are saying, oh, my goodness, if we are looking at an energy price shock and we're seeing this level of disruption, shouldn't oil prices be around 150, $200? They are not, because they are still saying, well, there could be some ways of getting around this. And as a result, you've got these central banks coming out with some really intriguing comments about the outlook for inflation.

Adam Fleming (16:00)

Well, they sound quite calm.

Darshini David (16:01)

Well, I know, I was going to say, Adam, are they. They do sound quite calm. And I was going to say, you know, when I say to people, oh, it's a really fascinating set of minutes from the bank of England, I get odd looks, but I know that you enjoy reading, so I know I'm in a safe place here. But. But they did actually sound, you know,

Adam Fleming (16:16)

instead of saying, this is, this is probably temporary, the economy can probably handle it. Let's be cautious, but not too worried.

Darshini David (16:21)

Let's play, let's play a waiting game here. And they're saying instead of ending the year at 2%, inflation may end around three and a half. Now, they had that discussion yesterday. Things have changed overnight. We're probably looking at a 4 rather than a 3 if things carry on like this. But at the same time, that is not disastrous compared to what we saw back in 2022. And other Central banks are coming out with similar things. Now, having said that, the markets have been moving in the hours after that, the bond markets, because they're saying all these central banks are admitting we're seeing a risk of that fall in inflation being derailed and therefore the chances of further interest rate cuts being derailed. And so those bond market markets are raising their expectations of interest rates. That's why we've seen more expensive mortgages and that is why, you know, that escalation we saw overnight could put a further dent in borrowers pockets.

Adam Fleming (17:08)

And I think the really interesting line from the minutes which are available on the website of the bank of England for everyone to look at is this sentence here in the February report. So the last time they looked at it, inflation had previously been expected to fall back to around the 2% target from April, partly owing to measures in Budget 2025. They're now talking about it being 3, 3 and a half percent, you said maybe 4. But the key clause there is partly owing to measures in Budget 2025. So Rachel Reeves did some stuff to bring down people's energy bills which would bring down inflation overall, which has now been at a stroke reversed by the war.

Darshini David (17:42)

Well, it's kind of in reverse. But remember that what we're talking about when we come to energy bills, the help from the government kicks in at the end of this month. Right. What we're talking about when we talk about the oil, the gas futures rather are gas electricity bills from July. July almost. Yes, because of the way our energy bills are determined. So there could be a bit of relief now stinging the tail later on. But yeah, it's a really interesting picture this because they're sort of saying, yep, there could be this little bit of a. They use the word shock, the bank of England does, which is, I thought, quite interesting because. Because, you know, when you talk about an energy price shock, they, you know, they're very kind of calm and cautious people, the people at bank of England, it was quite a strong term in that sense. But here's something to think about. Our weakness could actually become a strength in this because, you know, we've had some figures out this morning which were a reminder that the jobs market has been pretty shaky. Things may have levelled off at the start of this year, but it was a tough year last year for job seekers. Unemployment was rising, growth has been rather shaky. Now those factors actually mean when you get price pressures, it's harder for businesses to pass on price rises because demand is quite weak and that could help keep a lid on inflation and therefore interest rates in the uk.

Adam Fleming (18:53)

I'm just thinking back to the post Covid period though, where lots of central bankers said this inflation spike is going to be really high but really short and Inflation hung around for a lot longer. And so everyone said, well, your judgment's been called into question. And I just have that ringing in my ears reading stuff today.

Darshini David (19:09)

But you are one of the scarred. And they talk about this, you know, the fact that we have been scarred by this experience of higher inflation. And even though we're not talking, and the bank of England government's been quite explicit about this, we're not looking at a return to those double digit rates of inflation. But because we have experienced that and been through that, if we are looking at inflation with say a 4 in front of it once again, our expectations become that, that's normal. And therefore we start acting like that and we ask for bigger price wage rises and prices go up to match that. And that's when you end up in this kind of spiral of stubborn inflation. And that is why the bank is slightly hesitant and cautious. And some analysts are saying that might be why rates have to rise rather than, you know, that instance of inflation itself.

Lisa Bryant (19:54)

Can I just add one thing since you're also going to be looking at Covid today. One of the lessons from COVID was that borders don't stop bad things far away from coming to our shores. And while the strength of the British economy, British society, there may be some, to use that word, resilience here around the world, there are many countries already reeling, countries who depend almost 100% for Qatar, for their natural gas, for their electricity, for their to keep their economies running. They are already suffering. Food prices are already rising in many parts of the world. Farmers are already making decisions about what to plant or not to plant because they're not going to have access to fertilizer. Humanitarian aid also goes through the Strait of Hormuz. So there are already predictions that the levels of aid are going to come down significantly. The World Food Program is talking about food shortages, not being able to help, help the people who desperately need help. This is also going to have shock waves around the world.

Adam Fleming (21:00)

And just my last point on this from again from reading the bank of England minutes, that Andrew Bailey, the governor, because each, each person on the committee does a little statement, yes, their take on what they're seeing. And Andrew Bailey talks about the supply of neon gas. And so I looked up that, I'm like, surely we're not worried about like late night cocktail bars putting up new signs and not being able to do nice neon signs. But no, neon is a crucial component for making semiconductor chips which as we've been discussing for the last two years are some of the most important things in the world economy right now.

Darshini David (21:29)

Absolutely. And countries like South Korea, which rely very heavily on imports to do these things, have already been warning. And that's why when you look, as Lee says, when you look at that global picture, there's some real standouts here and South Korean stock markets are one of them because of that risk. And that of course, risks the rest of us. There's all sorts of fallout here. Schools being shut in some countries, universities, those kind of things. Four day weeks. I mean, there's real disruption going on up and down and it's really, I mean, people may not want to switch on the TV right now and see the, you know, flames over Iran. But on the other hand, this is coming into our own living rooms and our own pockets whether we like it or not.

Adam Fleming (22:04)

Darshini, thank you very much. Thank you Lis. Thanks to you too.

Lisa Bryant (22:07)

Really good to join you and to join Darshini.

Darshini David (22:09)

Likewise,

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Adam Fleming (24:54)

Now we're recording this episode of newscast on Thursday 19th March. Here is what Laura and I and Fergus were doing six years ago. Exactly. Hello, it's Adam Fleming at Westminster and

Darshini David (25:06)

Laura at Westminster and Fergus Walsh at

Adam Fleming (25:09)

New Broadcasting House in a very well lit cupboard by the looks of things.

Jim Reed (25:14)

But I've got a studio all to myself.

Darshini David (25:15)

This, this is. You could self isolate here. I tell you. You might have to.

Adam Fleming (25:19)

Just don't speak too soon.

Darshini David (25:20)

You might have to. And are we sitting? I think we are sitting actually further apart than we normally would, I think.

Adam Fleming (25:25)

Yeah, I think it's meant to be 2 meters, isn't it?

Darshini David (25:27)

2 meters?

Adam Fleming (25:28)

I don't know if this is quite. Actually it probably is 2 meters.

Darshini David (25:32)

Okay.

Jim Reed (25:33)

Anyway, there we are.

Darshini David (25:34)

So look, absolutely packed program because we are in a massive, massive, massive, massive story and huge unfolding crisis for the country. So we've got tons to talk about.

Adam Fleming (25:43)

Yeah. And the number du jour isn't two, it's actually 12 because Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister at his now daily news conference said that is when the tide is going to turn. This is how it sounded when he said it.

Darshini David (25:55)

I do think looking at it all

Jim Reed (25:56)

that we can turn the tide within

Darshini David (25:59)

the next 12 weeks and I'm absolutely

Jim Reed (26:03)

confident that we can send a coronavirus packing in this country.

Adam Fleming (26:09)

Yes, that was when then prime minister Boris Johnson had a very optimistic view of the timeline for dealing with COVID and how the country dealt with COVID is the subject of the COVID 19 inquiry being led by Baroness Hallett. She published her third report today, which is looking at the implications for Covid on the NHS then and now. And the person who's been scrutinizing the work of the COVID inquiry ever since it started a few years ago is our health correspondent Jim Reeds, who is here. Hello, Jim.

Jim Reed (26:37)

Hi, Adam.

Adam Fleming (26:38)

How did, how did this morning play out then? What's the sort of the choreography of the COVID inquiry? Reporting back?

Jim Reed (26:43)

So they have this thing for journalists and for, in fact, people who, families and bereaved families and so on, which they call a lock in. So the security is slightly weird. It's a bit like, bit like an airport kind of style security. So you go in there and they take your phones off you and they put them in a little bag and mark them up with a number and all this sort of stuff. And then you have two hours to read the report, which is 400 pages, which is 400 pages long. So do the maths on that. And that's, that's pretty much impossible. So there's a group of us in there that kind of try to divvy it up and take different sections and so on. And then, yeah, you get to leave kind of 15 minutes before 12 o', clock, which is when you're allowed to report everything, get in your live position on TV or get you at your radio mic. And, yeah, then it's all go. And then there was a series of press conferences from different groups afterwards reacting to the findings today.

Adam Fleming (27:33)

So we're recording this bit of newscast at about quarter past three on Thursday afternoon. So you've had a few hours to think about it now, what's in your head?

Jim Reed (27:40)

One of the things that I was thinking was, so the kind of main message I think that she wanted to get out, Baroness Hallett today, was the amount of pressure that hospitals and the NHS was under. Now, you might be sitting there thinking like, well, we knew, we knew that hospitals were under pressure in Covid and I think we did. I'm not quite sure we realized to what extent. And that is partly because obviously in Covid itself, journalists, reporters were never going to get invited in to the hospitals that were really feeling the pressure at that time because, you know, frankly, they had better things to do than to keep journalists happy. So I don't think we quite realize. I mean, I kind of think politicians said this at the time. The NHS is not overwhelmed. What she said was, well, that's, that was kind of true. As a whole, yes. But there were patches in the country at different times where she said, look, this meets every definition of being overwhelmed, close to collapse. Her message was coped, but only just. And I think, you know, when you heard the evidence that I sat through today as well, you would think that actually the true situation maybe wasn't quite what we necessarily thought it was at the time. If anything, in certain places, it was worse.

Adam Fleming (28:48)

And. And she sort of breaks that down into different types of being overwhelmed, doesn't she? Whether it is the level of care that people were receiving for Covid or the level of care people were receiving, something that was not Covid related, or just the immense physical and emotional pressure on the staff.

Jim Reed (29:04)

Yeah, I think if you divide it up, I think that's a sensible way of dividing it up. I mean, so just on hospitals themselves, some hospitals ran out or came very close to running out, running out of oxygen at times, and obviously you needed that for the ventilators and the CPAP masks that COVID patients were wearing. So as a result, what they had to do was move patients out of those hospitals to other hospitals that had bigger facilities and so on. But the problem with that, and we heard this in the evidence, was that then you were left with some of these, I don't want to say secondary hospitals, but maybe not the huge ones in London, Birmingham and other big cities. You were left with these hospitals that had in them the patients that you couldn't move, and frankly, they were the sickest patients. So the effects on staff then was huge, because you had kind of fatality mortality stats in these intensive care units that were running at, you know, 60, 70, 80%. And normally in ICU intensive care, you're talking maybe 25% fatality. So the impact then on staff, nurses, doctors that were seeing these patients at the peak of the pandemic die on a regular basis was pretty profound.

Adam Fleming (30:10)

I mean, there's so many things we could pick up on. One of the very moving bits of Baroness Hallett's statement was reminding us all of how draconian the restrictions were on having people coming to visit you if you're in hospital, or people being with you if you were dying. Yeah, a real reminder of how grim that was.

Jim Reed (30:26)

You're right. And I think this is the other kind of message she wanted to get out, which is that some of the policies put in place to attempt to mitigate this pressure were either not thought through or were not planned for properly. So she gave the example of, you know, protect the stay at home, protect The NHS Save Lives. That, that slogan we had time and time again. And she didn't completely slag it off. She said that, you know, it was successful in getting that message across, but, but in a way it was too successful and it stopped people coming forward when they had complaints, which they really should have been going to the NHS with. And you saw that in statistics, Adam. You know, you saw kind of people coming forward for things like heart attacks dropping very significantly in the pandemic. So she talked about that and again, you know, you were saying about the visiting restrictions. I mean, you know, she gave the example of, of women who weren't. Had to be on their own when they went through, you know, maternity scans, getting very distressing news about, perhaps about their unborn baby having to deal with that by themselves. Some women have. Having to give birth alone, some young people who are having to be alone in mental health units, for example, hospital mental health units, not having their parents there with them or their carers there with them. So I think, you know, the other message to get across today is think about the, the other impact of what you're doing in any future pandemic.

Adam Fleming (31:42)

And we'll talk about her recommendations in a second. But one of the other findings was just the state of the NHS before the pandemic hit and the fact that it just wasn't fit to face a crisis of this magnitude.

Jim Reed (31:54)

Yeah, and we saw that in the staffing. So what happened with the staffing in intensive care is because we didn't have a huge amount of excess critical care nurses, intensive care doctors, so they basically had to ship in people from other bits of the hospital. Now these people, you know, I've heard testimony from some of them and from some people who work with them and huge amounts of praise for the people that did this. But maybe they weren't used to having to deal with that level of death, that level of illness, that level of pressure. And I think it's particularly that group that she was concerned about the long term effects on those, you know, now leaving the health service or living with some of these mental health conditions, post traumatic stress disorder, that kind of thing.

Adam Fleming (32:32)

And in terms of what Baroness Hallett has recommended the country does to avoid this in future, I mean, there's 10 recommendations, aren't there? We won't go through all of them. But one of them is related to what you were just saying there, this idea that you have a surge capacity in emergency departments so that you can just ramp up the amount of staff you've got if there's a crisis like this.

Jim Reed (32:50)

Yeah, I think you're right. So that she said two things on that. She essentially said that there should be more capacity now in A E and those kind of emergency departments in hospital. But you're right, she said that for something like intensive care, we need to have a better way of scaling up stuff quickly. I mean, they did do that in the pandemic, but they ended up having to use, you know, like side rooms and corridors and the staffing, you know, they had to kind of immediately train up people who weren't trained to work in those areas. So I think the idea is put that in place now, so give people extra training, have a plan in place so if this should happen again, you don't have to do this at the last minute.

Adam Fleming (33:26)

And also when it comes to planning, there should be a UK wide exercise done about how you would restrict people's access to their relatives in hospital to prevent infection spreading in another pandemic. So you don't have these ad hoc rules about, oh, you can't see your dying relative again.

Jim Reed (33:41)

I think that was important because it wasn't so much the, I mean, that was part of it, it was the fact that they were just not applied consistently across the country or even within a hospital. So you had these families who were saying, well, hang on, someone down the road was allowed to visit their mother, why can't I? So it was like, well, have the policies in place now. One of the other things she says, and on the surface this sounds like, oh my God, this is such a boring recommendation, was to sort data out. Because, for example, we had this situation with shielding in the pandemic where you had different groups who frankly should have been told or giving the advice but weren't, and then other groups who were told to stay at home and maybe didn't need to, and there was no consistency across the country. Different areas of the country apply these rules separately. So we're like, look, sort this out so that if this should happen again, there isn't immediately a database of patients around the country with the conditions that they've got. And so we know what we're dealing with, which they didn't have really at the time.

Adam Fleming (34:35)

And I suppose we then come on to the philosophical thing about what's the point of this? Because you and I covered this every day at the time. We just played the clip of newscast from the time. It was all unfolding in our eyes in a quite visible way. I take your point about a lot of it happening behind kind of the walls of the hospitals that we couldn't see. But what is your feeling about the purpose of all of this? To go over it all again?

Jim Reed (34:59)

No, I mean, this whole inquiry has cost. I think it's 204 million so far. That total has been hugely criticized. It's been going on for the best part of three years now, now four years into the fourth year, really, and it won't finish all these reports until the summer of 2027. So that has been met with a fair deal of criticism, like you can imagine. I mean, Baroness Hallett and the team say that we shouldn't think of these recommendations as sort of an isolated thing for each section. By the time she argues, we get to the end of this process next summer, you'll look at all these recommendations for all these 10 different sections that we're looking at, and if they are put in place, and she has strongly said today she expects them to be, and expects them to be put in place by the government promptly, then that would put us in a better position for the future. Now, of course, the problem is that the danger here is are you always planning for the last war, the last pandemic, and what happens, you know, so the idea is to put something in place that works for the next pandemic, whatever it might be.

Adam Fleming (35:59)

Well, and that's what gets me about some of the. Well, there's lots of things that get me about this because it was a very momentous time. But, for example, when she's talking about PPE and she says the problem, apart from the supplies of ppe, was that the scientists thought that Covid was passed by contact, as opposed to by aerosol, through. Through the air. Droplets through the air. And so therefore the advice on PPE was based on the wrong assumptions. Yeah, but then how do you plan for what PPE to use and what policies you have around PPE if you don't know how the next disease is transmitted? Because, as we've learned, it's things like that are so important, the differences are so important.

Jim Reed (36:39)

But I think some of the decision making around that was absolutely. We learned today was pretty chaotic at the time. Like, no one really knew who was making these decisions or what advice is being fed into this. I think her. Her message on that is that, which

Adam Fleming (36:53)

is why so much of her recommendations is about come up with a process to help you decide as opposed to just doing it. Exactly.

Jim Reed (36:59)

Don't have a kind of strict, you have to do it this way, but have a kind of framework in place so that you can better come up come up with these decision and this sounds like an arcane thing but. But actually how that that virus was spread made a massive difference to things like whether you had the right advice for schools to open windows and have ventilation in place, whether you had the right PPE for doctors like those flimsy surgical masks that people were being given. Turns out didn't do very much and they should have had, you know, more advanced PPE that could have protected them. So actually it sounds like a scientific debate, but this had practical differences, practical impacts at the time.

Adam Fleming (37:34)

And also just again, on a philosophical point, you realize there is a value of having this stuff that a lot of us know already that's in our brains and our memories, having it written down and printed out so it could be put on a shelf for the rest of time and it's collected there in black and white.

Jim Reed (37:51)

It's about the transparency. I mean one of her, the things she said in a previous module is that there should be training exercises, practice exercises every three years that are carried out. And this was done before the pandemic. But Adam, it was always done behind closed doors that the only reason we found out what went on in those practice exercises was because they got leaked to the Guardian in the middle of COVID So she's saying, look, they should happen and they are happening now and the results should be published. So if they are failing, if like the care home sector is not properly prepared for the next pandemic, the press, the media, the public can find out about it and not find out about it. It, you know, three months into the next thing that might spread around the

Adam Fleming (38:27)

country a very, very good summary of a very, very big document that has been the result of many, many days and weeks and years of inquiry. What's the sort of the next bit of the inquiry then?

Jim Reed (38:37)

So, yeah, it goes on for the next year and a half really the next bit comes next month when they look at the vaccine rollout. Now that is a more positive one for the government. I think there's a general consensus that we did pretty well on the vaccine rollout. So they're going to look at that and then through the summer they're going to look at things like care home, they are going to look at the impact on education and so on for the next year and a half or so.

Adam Fleming (38:59)

Thanks for keeping an eye on it for us.

Jim Reed (39:00)

I'm there for you.

Adam Fleming (39:08)

And that's all for this episode of Newscast. Thank you very much for listening. We'll be back with another one very soon.

Darshini David (39:13)

Bye.

Adam Fleming (39:13)

Bye. Newscast.

Jim Reed (39:15)

Newscast from the BBC. Well, thank you for making it to the end of another newscast cast. You clearly ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? And then, without having to do anything else, our meandering chat will miraculously make its way to your phone.

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