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- [00:00]
Luke Trill
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk.
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Podcast Host/Producer
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Adam
Everyone knows that politics isn't working.
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Luke Trill
Everyone can feel that the country isn't
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Adam
where it should be.
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Luke Trill
Tonight could just could be the turning point. From here on, I will give everything I have got to make it so to ensure the name Makerfield is forever synonymous with bringing about the change this country needs. Bringing back something we've lost.
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Chris Mason
Hope.
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Luke Trill
Hope for the future.
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Adam
Andy Burnham winning the Makerfield by election and overcoming that first hurdle on his potential path to become Prime Minister and replace Keir Starme speech was as much to the people of the country as it was to the people of Makerfield, who he'll now be representing in Parliament. We reacted to that by election victory and it was quite a stunning victory by Andy Burnham as well, because he sort of exceeded people's expectations on a live episode of Newscast which was on various BBC platforms at 7 o' clock this morning and has got the usual morning after the by election before kind of chaos energy. But here it is for you to listen to as a podcast episode of
- [02:26]
Podcast Host/Producer
Newscast Newscast Newscast Newscast from the BBC.
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Luke Trill
Humanity's next great voyage begins.
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Safeway/Albertsons Advertiser
We are in the midst of a rupture.
- [02:34]
Chris Mason
Nostalgia will not bring back the old order.
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Luke Trill
6 7.
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Chris Mason
Yeah, it's supposed to be me as
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Luke Trill
a doctor Daddy has has also a
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Adam
special connotation thinking about it like a panto helped.
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Kevin Fitzpatrick
Do we play music now or what do we do?
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Adam
Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio. It's very early On Friday morning and we've got the result from the Makerfield bile action. I say it's early, maybe for Chris Mason in Makerfield, the constituency, it's late because he's been up all night. Hello, Chris.
- [03:02]
Chris Mason
Yes, hello. Morning, Adam. I am on a picnic table outside a budget hotel chain just next to the M6 just outside Ashton in Makerfield. So in the Makerfield constituency, which wakes up to a new MP and a familiar figure for folk around here, Andy Burnham, the, well now former mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham returns as an mp, There will be a mayoral by election and blimey, before we get to that, who on earth knows what's going to happen at Westminster?
- [03:31]
Adam
Indeed. And just walking into the studio now, and maybe you will hear him or see him crossing over the camera is Luke Trill from the polling company More in common. He's sitting down, a photo frame's been knocked over by some weird poltergeist because it wasn't by Luke. And while he's getting himself settled down and ready to analyze the results, we're also joined by Kevin Fitzpatrick, friend of newscast, political reporter for BBC Radio Manchester. Morning, evening, day.
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Kevin Fitzpatrick
Kevin, how are you doing?
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Adam
Very well, thank you. How are you?
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Kevin Fitzpatrick
Well, I've had a few too many coffees. I think I'm looking a bit intense as I'll cut myself back in the
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Adam
picture and things are only going to get more intense. Kevin, did you want to give us the numbers first of all?
- [04:09]
Kevin Fitzpatrick
Yeah. So in the end it was quite a comfortable victory for Andy Burnham. He got more than 24,000 votes, nearly 25, more than half of the total vote, and he ended up 9,000 votes ahead of Reform. Everybody else way behind them. So while it was a two horse race, as had been predicted throughout the contest, in the end Andy Burnham was way ahead and it wasn't quite as close as many people had thought.
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Adam
Luke, you settled down now let's get some analysis. Yeah, I mean, this is a better victory than many people had predicted for Andy Burnham in Makerfield, isn't it?
- [04:44]
Luke Trill
Yeah, I mean it's an absolutely seismic victory. I think. You know, Andy Burnham has defied electrical gravity here and one of the data points that I'd in comparison is just six weeks ago in the wards that make up Makerfield that voted in those local council elections, Reform got over 50% of the vote. They swept every single ward. Labor barely got a quarter of the vote. And yet fast forward today and that's totally inverted. You had a 23 point swing from reform to labour in just six weeks.
- [05:20]
Adam
And, Chris, people were saying, oh, we'll have to look at Andy Burnham's margin of victory, because if the number of votes that Restore got plus reform added together is potentially greater than what Andy Burnham achieved, then, oh, his whole argument about he can beat reform and restore Labour's fortunes would be called into question. That's the theory that is consigned to the dustbin now, isn't it? Because his margin of victory was so big.
- [05:45]
Chris Mason
Yeah, it can sit in that file, quite a burgeoning file for folk like me, of hypothetical syphology that in the end didn't quite come to pass or become as significant as it might have done. I think as a sidebar to this by election result, when you look at the results, Restore Britain coming third is interesting and broadly speaking suggests that, you know, polls that had been done in the constituency and polling in a constituency is not easy because you're trying to get a sample size that is representative of a relatively small geographical area. Those polls did point to something of a support for Restore Britain and that played out in the result. But as you say, it wasn't a number that will be wildly sort of analysed in the coming hours, because even if you add Restore to reform, they have still in total been miles behind Labor. And I think this is why the numbers here do matter in the conversation that is already getting underway as we have this newscast recording at 7:00 in the morning and will continue throughout the day and throughout the weekend, which is that scale of victory. It was big. There's no doubt it was big. Couple of thoughts picking up from that thought. Number one is this. So the central argument being made by Andy Burnham here in the last four or five weeks was that fighting a seat like this would allow them to road test an argument that said that Andy Burnham as a Labour figurehead was somebody who could beat Nigel Farage and Reform. Now, clearly here, Andy Burnham can say, and no doubt will say at a victory rally in the coming hours, that that's exactly what he can do, because that is exactly what he has done. There is, though, clearly a question as we get into the next stage of this Andy Burnham story, to what extent is that transferable beyond Greater Manchester? Because there's no doubt Andy Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester. He has a track record in this constituency and then across the city region in several elections where he's performed very well. To what extent does that translate nationally? And then what do we hear from the Prime Minister in the next couple of hours? He'll be in front of the cameras, I think this side of lunchtime. What language does he pick in congratulating Andy Burnham? Is there any sense of a dilution of his defiance that we've heard? I've heard directly in the two interviews I've done with Keir Starmer in the last week and he's articulated defiance to plenty of others. And then how do Labour MPs respond? How does the Cabinet respond? It's going to be fascinating few days.
- [08:27]
Adam
And Chris, we'll pick up on lots of those threads throughout this episode of Newscast, which is being broadcast live on various platforms at the moment, but also could be listened to as a podcast later on on Friday. Kevin, I'm struck that a lot of the coverage of Andy Burnham at a national level on podcasts and news bulletins was when he was posed questions as a kind of proto Prime Minister. What would you do about the fiscal rules? What would you do about the waspy women? What would you do about oil and gas in the North Sea? But you were there in the streets talking to the voters, watching the campaign unfold as a classic by election. What was Andy Burnham's recipe for success?
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Kevin Fitzpatrick
Well, right from the start, he was adamant that this was a locally focused by election for him. He tried edging away, didn't he, from questions about, well, why would it be better than Keir Starmer as Prime Minister and what are his plans for the country more generally? And he, he did tap into this idea that he kept raming home and said in his acceptance speech as well, that places like Makerfield had been neglected for too long, that the politicians hadn't listened and that he believes, with his unique and special combination of experience as an MP for 16 years, as the MP for Lee just up the road, and also is nearly 10 years overseeing the conurbation of Greater Manchester with its 10 councils and its. Its record growth, the fastest growing economy in the country, that he was uniquely placed to go back to Parliament and orchestrate the change that he felt people in Makerfield needed. So he's been really focused whenever he could on the people, the issues, the things that he thought were topical and mattered to people in the area. Actually, he's across all the issues in the area. You know, things like flooding, things like anti soldiershill behaviour in one area in Ashton and Makerfield town centre, because as mayor he has had some involvement with trying to sort those things out. But he also did quite easily drift, didn't he, into what he saw as the things that needed to change with the country? And I think A lot of what he talked about hasn't been drilled into specifics. And what will be interesting in coming days and weeks is what, what is he going to articulate about this idea that he says, and the night before the election, well, you know, it's time to end 40 years of trickle down economics. These are big statements, aren't they? And I think while this campaign has focused locally as much as he could do, there are huge questions that he needs to answer if he does want to become Prime Minister.
- [10:58]
Adam
And Kevin, not to put you on the spot with a hyper local news story that you might not have covered personally, but I was really struck in an excellent article in the New Statesman this week about how Maker Fields kind of represents lots of places in Britain. Will Lloyd, the journalist, zoomed in on this one particular thing, which was the illegal fly tipping, the huge illegal waste dump basically at the end of a street. What can you tell us about that? Just as a sort of emblem for what was going on in that part of the world?
- [11:27]
Kevin Fitzpatrick
Yeah, well, that's a huge illegal tip which the authorities have just watched build and build over couple of years to the point where it was hundreds and hundreds of tons of illegally dumped waste. The residents kept complaining to the council, complaining to the environment Agency, and they basically set up shop and watched and monitored as these lorries drove up and dumped all this waste and the pile just got bigger and bigger. So that is an example of one of the scenarios in this constituency where people were saying, listen, we've got a huge problem here. You say you're on our side as politicians and despite the best efforts of the local councillors in some ways, and the mp, Josh Simons, who has managed to get an intervention and the government to commit to clearing it, the people who live in that direct area and on the end of that street have had two or three years of an absolute horrendous ordeal. Similar situation with flooding down the road in a place called Platt Bridge, which was another topic. They got flooded five years ago, they got flooded two years ago. All the time the government and the Environment Agency saying, oh, we really are committed to fixing this for you, but they were clearly further down the list than they wanted to be in terms of funding being allocated. So, yeah, some real local, hyper local issues, but examples people in the area felt of how the politicians talked a good game but just didn't listen to them.
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Adam
So interesting. And Luke, you were nodding there because I imagine you've heard those stories from lots of people because you've been doing lots of focus groups in the constituency over the last couple of weeks, where you get groups of people together and just kind of peer into their hearts and their brains. Has Andy Burnham won for one big reason or for lots of different reasons?
- [13:08]
Luke Trill
Well, it's interesting. I mean, I think the central question of this by election was basically the same in week one as it was on election day, because we were speaking to people throughout, which was, will Andy Burnham as MP and Prime Minister? And lots of people knew, everyone knew what this election was about, like, you know, that Andy Burnham was going to run for Prime Minister. Would that ultimately benefit Makerfield? Or was Makerfield being used as a stepping stone for Andy Burnham's ambition? And we heard a bit of both. But I think what has happened in the end is that sense that Andy Burnham, as an mp, as Prime Minister, that he can deliver the sort of change that places like Makerfield need. The other thing that we heard repeatedly were words like relatability, personability. You know, I couldn't quite believe the number of people that we spoke to in focus groups who said, you know, that they'd had a drink with him at a football match, that they had an Andy Burnham story and that he precisely was able to marry up both those big kind of national issues. You know, people want progress on things like the cost of living on the NHS with those very local issues. So, you know, we heard a lot about vape shops in Ashton and people's frustration that they were sort of springing up everywhere. Exactly that. The flooding in Platte Bridge. So he managed to walk that line where everyone knew what this contest was about. But still enough people were convinced that he cared about the local too. And, of course, he had his track record as mayor in order to, you know, give a bit of proof of concept to that.
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Adam
I was chatting to one of his allies the other day there that said one of the things that kept on happening on the campaign trail is that he would get distracted by going into someone's house and he'd be late for everything. And at one point he was late because he'd been in someone's house because they wanted him to try a batch of jam that they just cooked. And he was like, yeah, I'll try the jam. Now, Chris, in terms of what Andy Burnham was serving for breakfast for us this morning, we got his victory speech at the. It wasn't a leisure center, was it? It was a. Was it church and community centre that the count was at?
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Chris Mason
Yeah, it's called the Edge. It's on the edge of Wigan. And also the Edge of the river. I think it's the River Douglas that runs through Wigan. Curiously, you know, you've rattled around for a while in journalism when you turn up at a by election council centre and realise you've been to the building before. I did some filming a couple of years ago in a community supermarket that's based in the same building. And as you say, it's a community centre, it's also a church, it's hosted Songs of Praise. I think there's a. Some sort of Pokemon cards exhibition going on on Saturday. In other words, your classic kind of election count centre that's used for all sorts of things. And then every so often, I mean, typically every five years, but these days, sometimes more frequently than that, election ballot papers are counted in the middle of the night. And there we had Andy Burnham giving that victory speech at what, about half past three this morning and. And, oh, the, the wheels are turning.
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Adam
Oh, there's a biker rallied in between the bile action and the Pokemon convention.
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Chris Mason
There we go. There's a very polite duo of bikers because they actually sought out permission to turn the engine on and I thought, given how long newscasts go on, we could hardly ask them to wait manually. Drowned OUT BY a siren as well. This is the joy of live broadcasting, isn't it, as a fire engine goes zooming by. Oh, and the second one as well,
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Adam
Chris is really reading the news.
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Chris Mason
Andy Burnham's victory speech. Yes, parse it for us exactly. Andy Burnham's victory speech. So implicitly, each paragraph was pointing to a wider canvas than Makerfield and explicitly, when you tied all the paragraphs together, it was his, in broad terms, his pitch to the Labour Party and his pitch to the country. Now, he pointedly didn't go further than what he has been saying in the campaign, grounding everything in the Makerfield constituency, even picking up on the criticism that he's faced from Reform UK and from others that he would use Makerfield as a springboard to higher ambitions. And the implication from his critics that he'd be on the first train to Westminster and never be seen again around here. Whereas he said that here would ground him in what he did next, with the clear implication, even though he didn't say it, of what he would do as Prime Minister. Now we're going to hear from Andy Burnham at a victory rally in a couple of hours. I don't expect in that rally he will go further in his language or wildly further in his language than he has done today. I suspect he'll kick around in the constituency over the Weekend before he heads to Westminster on Monday. What will be intriguing is what happens in between now and then.
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Adam
Chris, I'm just thinking, last time we spoke on newscast, you were in the bus on the way back from the G7 summit and Robert Peston was sneezing every 30 seconds. So every time I've spoken to you this week, there's been some aural intrusions. Luke, in terms of Andy Burnham's victory speech, as I was listening to it while I was brushing my teeth, before I came into the studio forever, I was at home not brushing my teeth in the studio, I was struck by he constantly referred to place. So he's either referring to place as a concept like geography, or he was referring to Makerfield as a place that will guide him for whatever he does next. What's your take on the fact that kind of. It sounds like geography is going to be back? And I'm speaking as somebody who studied geography at university at the same time as Chris studied geography at university. What do you think about this idea about that he's putting place front and center of his sort of philosophy?
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Luke Trill
Well, it's interesting, isn't it? The sort of central Cross party diagnosis, basically, since the Brexit referendum, is that there are too many places, too many communities in Britain that don't feel like they're part of the national story anymore. That, you know, some people say overlooked, left behind, others don't like that, but just this sense that actually we've become too reliant and too focused on London, not focused enough on community. And I think, you know, Andy Burnham's whole shtick from what he's done in Manchester is he's proven that actually it doesn't need to be London. You can regenerate a place. And I think now, I think, you know, he is basically trying to apply the maker field test to the country as a whole. Because, you know, as that New Statesman piece, which I agree was wonderful, said there are lots of maker fields around the country. And I think his pitch, you know, we don't think he's going to have great free if he becomes prime minister to make massive policy changes, not least because of the financial situation, but that focus on place, on devolution, on community pride, we know that that resonates. And actually, if you're a Labour Party that's looking for a weapon against reform, being rooted in community might be it.
- [20:04]
Adam
Although, Chris, we've got lots of experience of a Prime Minister recently who put an emphasis on place and it was Boris Johnson and he called it Leveling up and it sort of didn't happen and it didn't help him stay on as Prime Minister. So we've kind of seen, we've seen this theory play out before.
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Chris Mason
We have. And that was a phrase, wasn't it? That was phraseology and indeed policy that I think people noticed, at least they noticed the intent. Whether or not people would have a different view as to whether it amounted to very much as a live question. But I think the difference, as we indulge a bit of place based politics, chat with two geography folk, you and me, Adam. The difference, I think, between the Boris Johnson policy and Andy Burnham's is that Andy Burnham's is rooted in a geography around his own experience, his own heritage and his own constituency as it now is, and therefore taps into a sense of does a successful Labour leader, particularly in an era like this one with an insurgent reform uk, need to be grounded and elected from a community where reform are competitive and reform can win, in other words, not from a seat in London, basically north London, in the Prime Minister's case, does that help ground Labour in a place that is more resilient? We've now got an articulated lorry doing a three point turn behind us. They've come to collect the dirty linen. Does that ground Labour in a more resilient political place if and when Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister than it has been under Keir Starmer? I suppose that's maybe the distinction from the place based politics of Boris Johnson, but he was keenly aware of it himself, wasn't he? And arguably, maybe alongside plenty of other things, Jeremy Corbyn, Brexit, etc, etc, it was a contributor in winning over some of those towns in the English midlands and north of England that voted Conservative for the first time ever, in plenty of cases in 2019, rejecting labour.
- [22:17]
Adam
And the other thing, Luke, about place, not to fixate on this concept, but I was struck that Andy Burnham said in his speech, I will put place before party, which is a very conscious echo of Keir Starmer saying I'll put country before party. And I just wonder how much that is, is going to be different if, if he takes over as Prime Minister.
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Luke Trill
I mean, I think the one thing that Andy Burnham does have is he genuinely does have in Greater Manchester a track record of working across party, you know, actually, you know, across Greater Manchester. You. He got elected with two thirds of the vote last time he ran, you know, he won over people that vote for other parties and certainly in the focus groups that we ran in the run up to this election, it was clear, actually, in an echo of Boris Johnson and the Red Wall, that there were voters of other parties who were lending their vote to Andy Burnham to give him a shot at bringing that change in Westminster. So we spoke to someone who said, you know, I always vote Tory. But he actually said, but look, I know I can't get the Labour Party out for three years, but I can get Keir Starmer out in two weeks if I vote for Andy Burnham. Other people who are Greens, Liberal Democrats, saying, we want to give him a shot to do that. So I genuinely think he does have some legitimacy when he talks about this idea of working kind of across the spectrum in a way that, you know, the thing with Keir Starmer is he's never managed to reach out beyond Labour partisans, aside from Liberal Democrats. Actually, weirdly, Liberal Democrats often give Keir Starmer a higher approval rating than Labour voters, which is a little quirk. But beyond that, I think he struggled with that.
- [23:53]
Adam
Kevin. Talking about places and talking about potential future elections, there is now, for definite, we know, going to be one in Greater Manchester for a new mayor. So irrespective of whether there's a Labour leadership contest, that contest is definitely going to happen and it happens quite soon.
- [24:08]
Kevin Fitzpatrick
Yeah. And it's been triggered already because the legalities are that you can't be a mayor where you're also a police and crime commissioner, like we have here in Greater Manchester, and become an mp. And as soon as his name was read out as the victor in that contest earlier this morning, well, he had to effectively stand down as mayor. So that by election has now been triggered. We've already had an email from the Greens saying that they're going to be announcing their candidate early next week. So straight from one by election, very excited about the Greens. But, yeah, that would be a huge by election, huge cost to the taxpayer. And that was one of the criticisms of Andy Burnham when he went for this role. And it's not clear, really isn't clear, who would step into the hall because he's been such a big figure.
- [24:59]
Adam
Right, Chris, let's talk about Keir Starmer, talking about big figures, or potentially former big figure, as some people are saying this morning. Let's look at the tweet he posted a little while ago. Congratulations. Andy Burnham, Labour's new MP for Makerfield. Voters chose Labour's campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate. So not exactly a sort of ringing endorsement of his new colleague at Westminster.
- [25:22]
Chris Mason
No, I think that is what you might describe as a sort of boilerplate public note of congratulation, as you say. He talked about Labour's campaign. Andy Burnham was at pains to be very personal in his branding in terms of Vote Andy for us was one of the slogans, wasn't it, Doing the rounds on the various boards here in the constituency. And, you know, let's be frank, he was running a campaign against the incumbent Labour government's record. And you hear it in some of the reaction this morning from Richard Tice, for instance, the deputy leader of Reform, saying just that as he congratulated Andy Burnham on winning what he described as a very safe Labour seat, which, I mean, certainly in terms of its electoral history and sending MPs to Westminster is true. Even if Reform's recent local election performance had suggested in this contest, it was. It was far from safe. As far as the Prime Minister is concerned. We are going to see him in front of the cameras in the next couple of hours. He will face. Face journalists, questions. I think it might be what's known as a pool clip, where one journalist asks on behalf of all of the broadcasters, half a dozen, if that, two or three questions. So, yeah, what kind of language does he choose to adopt? Is there any watering down on his position? I know I said this a few minutes ago, but I think it's going to be key, you know, is there any watering down on that defiance? Last night my phone was ringing. This was whilst the polls were still open, but last month, phone was ringing with unsolicited offers of perspective from those who are clearly keen to sort of prop Keir Starmer up, pointing to the fact that he won a big majority two years ago, the various indicators that they think are now pointing in the right direction, whether it be on net migration or the economy or inflation, for instance, or indeed his handling of the international picture. So they're still having a crack at being defiant, but is there any flash of acknowledgement that the scale of this victory changes things? And then over and above that, you know, what do Labour MPs do, particularly those who have not gone public so far with criticism of Keir Starmer or public demand that he ought to go? What about Cabinet figures, too? Are there conversations over this weekend where there is an attempt to persuade the Prime Minister that he ought to stand down, or does that not happen and he remains defiant? And then one of the candidates, Andy Burnham, West Streeting, you know, anybody else who can muster the numbers is somebody willing to go over the top and say, I've got the 81 MPs to back me. Which is what a candidate would need and therefore trigger a contest. And then at that point, Keir Starmer would have another decision, which is that once that scenario is live, does he actually go ahead with the thing he's been saying for months he would do and say he himself would stand?
- [28:20]
Adam
And, Chris, the vibes you seem to get from the Burnham campaign. And of course, there are lots of people that speak for Andy Burnham because they like him rather than because they're sat in his kind of kitchen cabinet with him. Seems to be that over the weekend, Keir Starmer realizes the writing is on the wall, sets out a timetable. There isn't even a contest at all. And it's just sort of, by some kind of magic, Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party. Is that what their dream scenario is? Or do they not even indulge in scenario planning?
- [28:50]
Chris Mason
I mean, there's all sorts of. There's all sorts of scenarios that fly around and that some people indulge in and it's fair to say, a bit like at various points in the Brexit referendum, or indeed, if you ask anyone right now who might win the World cup, you can make a plausible and intelligent and well argued case for a particular outcome, but it doesn't necessarily have any greater degree of likelihood than the next scenario that you can also make a plausible and intelligent and reasonable case for. But yes, there are those who say perhaps the PRI hope, because that's the other thing. Some people might say something as much because they hope it's happened rather than because they think it will happen. Those two things are in politics not always, in fact, often, for some, rarely the same, the same thing. But there are those who entertain exactly that scenario, that the Prime Minister realises the scale of the writing on the wall and is persuaded that perhaps he ought to, for his own sake, as some have articulated it to me, and for the sake of the party, to say that he will stand down and that Andy Burnham proved that he has the numbers and everyone else thinks, crikey, is the most popular person we've got right now and I wouldn't fancy taking him on in an internal election within the Labour Party and he becomes the Prime Minister very quickly. Equally, it's possible that, you know, you end up in a situation where there's a contest either with or without Keir Starmer as a. As a participant within it. Now, a week ago, Adam, when I sat down with the Prime Minister, I put to him exactly this scenario, which was a scenario where he has to decide whether to stand in a contest where his decision to stand determines whether or not there is a contest at all, because of the prospect that others might decide that maybe they can negotiate a decent job in the Cabinet or whatever, and they don't go through with the rigmarole of the contest that they think they're going to lose and which subjects the country to a sort of protracted internal battle within the Labour Party whilst that party is actually trying to govern the country. Now, perhaps unsurprisingly, the Prime Minister didn't really want to get into that publicly. I can sort of understand that in terms of his potential to weaken his own position further by doing so. But that scenario would be a fascinating one, because Keir Starmer has constantly railed against what he sees as chaos in politics, constantly railed against all of those leadership moments the Conservatives went through. And in a scenario where he was a active contributor to what he describes as chaos, would he be willing to actually do it? Particularly if he was thinking nobody else will do it and therefore he would be the trigger for that contest, even if it was triggered, caused originally by someone else.
- [31:41]
Adam
Right, Chris, I'm going to let you go. Lots of reporting still to do from Makerfield, although I get the sense you'll be coming back to Westminster for the shenanigans with the Cabinet and the Labour Party, which means you will miss the Pokemon convention in Wigan.
- [31:54]
Kevin Fitzpatrick
See you later.
- [31:55]
Luke Trill
See you later.
- [31:57]
Chris Mason
The opportunity cost.
- [31:58]
Adam
Yes. And, Kevin, thank you so much for updating us from the campaign throughout this campaign, because we were doing episodes of Biolection Cast that you were a big part of. And thanks for being here with us this morning.
- [32:08]
Kevin Fitzpatrick
My pleasure.
- [32:09]
Adam
And, Luke, you're staying for a couple of minutes because next piece of homework for you, analysing the two by elections that happened in Scotland. So there was Aberdeen south, which was taken by the Conservatives from the SNP with a huge swing of the vote, something their vote share was up 25%, which is kind of mind blowing, actually, in. In British politics. And then our growth in Brockley Ferry, where the SNP held on, and those were by elections triggered because the sitting SNP MPs had become members of the Scottish Parliament. What's your take on those?
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Luke Trill
Well, I think Aberdeen south is really interesting. I mean, that was an election which was when we ran focus groups in Aberdeen south, because we also did there, as well as Makerfield. The one thing people wanted to talk about was oil and gas. It was issue number one, two and three the Conservatives ran over, in other
- [32:58]
Adam
words, drilling for more. So that you can protect jobs.
- [33:01]
Luke Trill
Exactly. You know, Aberdeen, you know, the energy industry is a huge part of Aberdeen's economy. Real worries about what the transition might mean for them, the Conservatives lent into it. But interestingly, the other thing which came up in the focus group was that people noticed Kemi Badenok's visit. In fact, Kemi Badenoch went up three times to Aberdeen South. That's really unusual for me, having been
- [33:26]
Adam
banging the drum for new oil and gas for weeks and weeks and weeks nationally.
- [33:29]
Luke Trill
Exactly. And it's quite unusual for an opposition leader to do because it kind of exposes you there. And there was some, you know, that uptick we've seen in Kemi Badenoch's personal approvals, even though the Tory vote share has remained very flat, that was coming through in the group set. So I think it was a bit of a combination. And. And I think the thing about Aberdeen south, which is really interesting, is that I think it compounds a bad night for reform, because what you have is. Is three things. You have reform making basically no progress in what should have been in any other circumstance, an easy win in Makerfield, you've got restore getting 7% of the vote. So they, you know, it wasn't enough to make up the difference, but it still means they've got a real challenger on their right.
- [34:12]
Adam
And if that happens in lots of other places, then they don't win then,
- [34:15]
Luke Trill
you know, I mean, even if they get 3%, we think it costs them around 70 seats, potentially as a snapshot. But then thirdly, in Aberdeen south, you've got the Conservatives proving that they still have a pulse and that the battle for the right might not be over. So if you take all of those three things together, that isn't Great news for a 4. The other by election, I think, was interesting in the sense that actually, if you look at our growth and Brotti Ferry at the last general election, very close, Labour almost edged the snp. What we see instead is the Labour vote totally collapses. The S and P vote actually increases. But the big story there is just how low the turnout was. It's the lowest turnout of the three contests. And it was another example of that in those SNP Labour seats, where people say, well, I don't like the government at Westminster very much. I don't really like the government at Holyrood that much. It's all just a bit as. As I think I said before on newscast, just a bit, meh. People just sat on their hands.
- [35:20]
Adam
Is that an official polling terminology, Mayor?
- [35:22]
Luke Trill
I think I'm making It.
- [35:24]
Adam
Yeah. By saying it on by election cast, you've made it one. It's end of the lexicon. And I'll just give you a last big thought about what might be about to happen in the Labour Party. And I just think when you look at public opinion and how people feel, do people buy the Keir Starmer argument that getting rid of him would be chaos even though he's unpopular? Or do people buy the Andy Burnham argument about, well, actually, Labour needs to change and this is kind of the last chance and so something drastic needs to be done. Like, where are people?
- [35:56]
Luke Trill
Well, look, the thing is, people really liked it when Keir Starmer made that promise of a politics that treads more lightly, that they could go back to watching politics out of the side of their eyes. So instinctively, they would believe the Keir Starmer argument, except they don't believe he's delivered it. And from talking to people in Makerfield, the one thing which tended. We met some Starmer fans, but very few. The one thing that tends to unite Kenyan voters, Burnham voters, was a sense that the Prime Minister's time was coming to an end. You know, I asked almost every group, do you think there's anything the Prime Minister could do to turn it around? And even people who were sympathetic to him said, we just don't think there is. And there were enough people who were backing Burnham because they thought he would lead to that change.
- [36:37]
Adam
And then just a final thought about, I mean, kind of politics and leadership in general. And I'm thinking back to the old, old days when you were a special advisor to a government minister. How does it feel in the corridors of power? When it sounds like power might be about to go to somebody else, and not because of an election, but because of politics and ambition and all the stuff that's unfolding now, you just feel
- [37:01]
Luke Trill
the air suck out of the place. And, you know, the transition, which I was there for, was actually after the Brexit referendum. And I remember there's something in government which I know you've talked about on newscast before, called the grid, which controls all of the announcements. And I remember a couple of days after Brexit ringing up number 10, saying, oh, can we get this on the grid slot? And I'm just going, luke, there's no grid.
- [37:25]
Adam
You know, I'm surprised how someone answers the phone.
- [37:27]
Luke Trill
Yeah, yeah, no, exactly. So it is a total change and a total shift. And, you know, the Civil Service, the Special Advisors, number 10. When the move happens, the move happens.
- [37:38]
Adam
I also just wonder how long it takes to become ready to be Prime Minister. Can you do it with kind of a bit of a gist about what you want to achieve? Or actually do you have to have a quite worked out plan? Because we've real from Starmer. If you go in without a plan, it can get sticky quite quickly.
- [37:55]
Luke Trill
Yeah. And he had two years, well, you know, at least two years when he knew he was likely to become Prime Minister. That said, you know, I go back to what I say, is it likely there will be major policy differences between Burnham and. So I think there might be changes of emphasis and particularly on things like place and devolution.
- [38:13]
Adam
Well, because there's already a pride and big pride in place scheme just because Keir Summer launched it and the day he launched it was the day the Mandelson Some Anderson files came out. I mean that policy still exists.
- [38:23]
Luke Trill
That does exist. I'm not sure the change will make, I think the difference you get with Andy Burnham if he becomes Prime Minister and he may not, it may still be Kiyoshi, maybe any of the other contents, but if it's him, I think the biggest advantage he gives Labour is a chance at a rehearing, a chance at a reset, where some of those actually quite popular policies, workers rights, hugely popular, renters rights, hugely popular across the political spectrum, the minimum wage, the stuff they've done on sewage, the social media ban, actually can a new leader, can someone, Andy Burnham, who passes the relatability test, get enough people to give a look at that stuff and say, actually the government's doing some good stuff and
- [39:05]
Adam
we're getting really, really far ahead of ourselves and this is a massive hypothetical. But if Prime Minister Andy Burnham did at a general election what he did last night in Makerfield, I mean that would be one of the most consequential election results we've ever had.
- [39:18]
Luke Trill
Oh yeah, absolutely. And you know, he.
- [39:21]
Adam
Turning something around.
- [39:23]
Luke Trill
Completely turning something around. It is somewhat ironic, isn't it, that, you know, myself included and I still stand by it, have been talking about the death of two party politics now for quite a while and yet the headline results from last night are a Conservative gain and a Labor hold, admittedly against different opponents. But if he could turn it around, it would be seismic. The only caution I would give is 2017. Go to Theresa May. She's hugely popular. People are calling her the second Thatcher. You get into an election campaign and everything changes.
- [39:58]
Adam
That was in the six week period.
- [40:01]
Luke Trill
I'm just not sure that when you've got a three figure majority, you really risk it on a three figure majority and three years. Do you really risk it?
- [40:11]
Adam
Well, interesting. Luke, thank you so much.
- [40:23]
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- [41:12]
Adam
And that is all for this episode of Newscast. We will obviously be standing by watching what happens throughout Friday. At the moment it looks like we won't be doing an episode tonight, but you never know in politics these days. So there will be another episode of Newscast coming your way at some point.
- [41:30]
Podcast Host/Producer
Bye bye Newscast Newscast from the BBC from one newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know and don't forget. You can email us anytime at newscast@BBC.co.uk or if you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on +4403301239480. Be assured, I promise we listen to everyone.
- [42:21]
Luke Trill
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