By-Electioncast: Could Restore Britain Help Andy Burnham Win?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Newscast – By-Electioncast: Could Restore Britain Help Andy Burnham Win?

Date: June 13, 2026
Hosts: Laura Kuenssberg, Paddy O’Connell
Guests: Luke Trill (More in Common), Joe Pike (BBC political reporter)
Theme: An in-depth discussion of the Makerfield by-election, the unexpected rise of the Restore Britain party, and how the outcome could affect Andy Burnham's political ambitions.

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Main Theme & Episode Purpose

This episode of Newscast homes in on the high-stakes Makerfield by-election, widely seen as the most consequential in decades. The panel analyses polling, voter sentiment, the impact of outsider parties like Restore Britain, and how events—like the resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey—are shaping the contest. Central to the conversation: Will the presence of Restore split the right, and could Andy Burnham’s personal popularity really carry him to a win — and potentially the Prime Ministership?

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. By-Election Atmosphere and Local Perspective

• High Engagement and Turnout:

  • The panel notes an unusually engaged electorate, with many aware of candidates and party platforms.
    • “I've never found this level of political engagement or awareness in a by-election.” — Luke Trill [11:10]
  • Voter fatigue is evident amid a blitz of leaflets and door-knocking.
    • “If I'd been on holiday for two weeks, I'd have come back and I wouldn't have been able to open my front door [for leaflets].” — Joe Pike [09:13]
  • The feeling among locals is described as a “burden-privilege”:
    • “It's quite a burden, privilege to be able to vote at this time and needs to be taken seriously.” — Local voter [08:33]

• Makerfield as a National Focal Point:

  • The constituency’s unique position between Manchester, Liverpool, and Blackpool and now under national scrutiny.
    • “This is Makerfield. Who could pick the prime minister?” — Paddy [07:45]

2. Polling Data and the Restore Britain Phenomenon

• Poll Snapshot (approx 500 polled):

  • Andy Burnham (Labour): 45%
  • Robert Kenyon (Reform): 40%
  • Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain): 8%
  • Greens, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats: all below 5%
  • 1 in 8 voters still undecided, most of whom plan to vote but haven't picked a side.
    — [03:48]

• Restore’s Surprising Momentum:

  • Once written off as online-only, Restore now outpolls the gap between Labour and Reform.
  • Leader Rupert Lowe’s social media reach (“almost twice as many followers as the Prime Minister”) is credited with giving Restore an outsized voice.
    • “The barriers to entry, social media has basically broken down the barriers to entry to what is essentially a one man band party…” — Luke Trill [05:38]
  • Voters spot RESTORE posters—evidence of real-world impact beyond the digital sphere. [06:04]

3. Voter Focus Group Findings

• Summary of Focus Group Reflections:

  • Highly engaged and aware attendees, spanning a diversity of occupations and backgrounds.
  • Voters are not just considering their own MP, but are aware their vote could influence who leads the country.
    • “People have views on the candidates and... are playing 3D chess.” — Luke Trill [11:35]
  • Tactical voting and “3D chess” thinking:
    • Some are weighing whether to keep or oust Keir Starmer via their local vote, irrespective of party loyalty.
    • “One guy said, look, I would never vote Labour normally, but I know I can't get Labour out in the next few years, but I can get Keir Starmer out if I vote Labour this time.” — Luke Trill [11:35]

• Voter Skepticism Toward Keir Starmer:

  • Common view: Not charismatic or strong enough; described as “a middle manager over-promoted.” [14:53]
  • Deep concern over national security after Defence Secretary John Healey’s sudden resignation:
    • “That's the worry for me is that we're going to go through this period of turmoil, in this dangerous period.” — Voter, on Healey’s departure [15:44]

4. Candidate Analysis

• Andy Burnham (Labour):

  • Seen as both charismatic and opportunistic; voters split on whether ambition is negative.
    • “He's an opportunist... there’s been a lot of talk about he's going just for Prime Minister and that the locals won't see him ever again. Like he disappears down to Downing street, never to be seen again.” — Laura/Voter [19:48]
  • Notably high local favorability:
    • Andy Burnham’s net favorability: -7 (compared to Keir Starmer’s -48).
    • “If Andy Burnham were not the candidate, this would not be a close race… He clearly has the sort of personal vote that you don't really see in politics anymore.” — Luke Trill [20:49]
  • Strategic argument: If Burnham wins, he could position himself within Labour as the only one who can defeat Reform and “stop a tidal wave.” [22:04]

• Robert Kenyon (Reform UK):

  • Despite controversy over past social media comments (some considered sexist), still polling competitively.
    • “You get another group who say…if I did that in my job, I'd lose my job… If he apologized, it would show that he'd learn. And I just wonder whether Reform have made a mistake in trying to learn again... British voters, an apology really matters to them.” — Luke Trill [25:05]
  • Voters express empathy as well as criticism, citing him as “a local lad” but unprepared for the scrutiny.

• Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain):

  • Restore described by voters as “Reform on steroids,” gaining traction among some right-leaning, anti-establishment voices.
    • “Rupert Lowe talks a lot of sense... Restore is just Reform on steroids.” — Voter [35:01]

• Other parties:

  • Greens praised for “radicalism” by some, Tories and Lib Dems not significant factors in the contest.

5. The John Healey Episode: Implications for Keir Starmer

• Laura offers an inside account of how the Defence Secretary’s resignation unfolded, citing deep frustration within the MOD over funding commitments Starmer would not agree to:
  • “Still, though, people are staggered that John Healey, of all people, actually walked. And it says something very, quite bad about the political handling of Downing street.” — Laura [18:52]
• The loss is portrayed as a damaging moment for Starmer, both for public perception and party morale.
• Doubts raised about whether the government’s defence spending commitments are credible or sustainable.

6. Nature of Focus Groups and Public Political Engagement

• Focus groups are carefully constructed to avoid self-selection bias; many participants are unaware before being chosen that politics will be the subject.

  • This yields more authentic, less performative opinions:
    • “People who like to talk about politics are weird, right? They're unusual...so the way that we do it is [to recruit more generally].” — Luke Trill [28:07]

• Participants report never having been asked for their opinion before and value the opportunity to be heard.

  • “The number of times I've done focus groups, and at the end, people have said, and I think this should be a lesson to politicians, 'the number of people said, no one's ever asked me this stuff before…'” — Luke Trill [31:12]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Burden-privilege.” Local voter describing the weight and importance of their Makerfield vote. [08:33]
• On Burnham’s candidacy:
  • “If Andy Burnham were not the candidate, this would not be a close race. He clearly has the sort of personal vote that you don’t really see in politics anymore.” — Luke Trill [20:49]
• On Restore's rapid rise:
  • “The barriers to entry, social media has basically broken down the barriers to entry…” — Luke Trill [05:38]
• On Starmer’s standing:
  • “He’s not charismatic, he’s not a leader. Someone said he’s a middle manager over-promoted.” [14:53]
• On voter focus:
  • "People are playing 3D chess, really thinking this through." — Luke Trill [11:35]

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Important Timestamps

• 03:48 – Breakdown of Makerfield poll results, highlighting the tight race and the significance of the Restore vote.
• 05:38 – Discussion on the rise of Restore Britain and social media’s role in party emergence.
• 11:10 – Voter engagement at historical highs; comparison to other by-elections.
• 14:53 – Focus group consensus: skepticism toward Keir Starmer.
• 18:52 – Laura’s in-depth analysis of John Healey’s resignation.
• 19:48 – Voter perspectives on Andy Burnham’s motives and appeal.
• 20:49 – Impact of Burnham’s personal brand vs. party loyalty (“this would not be a close race”).
• 25:05 – Robert Kenyon (Reform) controversy and the role of apologies in UK political culture.
• 28:07 – How focus groups are recruited for authenticity.
• 31:12 – The power and rarity of politicians genuinely seeking everyday people’s views.
• 35:01 – Restore described as “Reform on steroids” by a focus group participant.

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Structure & Flow for New Listeners

• This episode provides a deep dive into the logistical, emotional, and political dynamics of one of the most closely watched by-elections in UK history.
• The hosts balance on-the-ground impressions, polling data, direct quotes from voters, and high-level political implications.
• Listeners not following every twist of British politics will gain a vivid sense of what’s at stake locally and nationally, with tangible examples of how national sentiment and smaller parties are shaking up traditional party politics.

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Takeaways

• Makerfield is unusually engaged and aware, with voters feeling both privileged and burdened by their electoral significance this cycle.
• Restore Britain’s sudden viability shows how social media can rapidly elevate new parties.
• Andy Burnham’s personal popularity is the wild card—he transforms the contest—and his win could reshape Labour infighting and national leadership.
• Voter cynicism toward party leaders is high, with tactical voting and skepticism dominating the mood.
• Reform’s candidate is weathering controversy thanks to voters’ selective tolerance and the absence of an apology.
• Events like John Healey’s resignation have both emotional and practical implications for national politics.
• There’s widespread desire for politicians to listen, and focus groups, when structured right, reveal genuine, complex public views.

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For further details, refer to the full episode transcript or visit the BBC Newscast page for associated polling and analysis.

Transcript

[Paddy]

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[Luke Trill]

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[Laura]

And now we are four.

[Paddy]

It's Saturday's newscast with three people who've

[Laura]

been to Makerfield and somebody who's returned from their holidays. I'm delighted to see.

[Paddy]

Yes, I'm back. Thank you very much for having me back because there's so much happened you could easily give me a test to make sure I can even talk about the news. But I went to Makerfield and we're here with two experts on Megfield, Luke

[Laura]

Trill from the pollsters, more in common.

[Luke Trill]

Great to be here.

[Laura]

And Joe Pike. Joe's been keeping me company a lot while you've been away, Paddy. So don't like introduce Joe like he's some kind of expert that has never been in the studio before.

[Joe Pike]

I'm the understudy and we, we were in Makerfield with Luke yesterday doing a focus group of different voters.

[Laura]

Now we don't like cliches on Saturday's newscast but Paddy, you went to the northwest and something happened with a piece of.

[Paddy]

Yes, so Makefield's between Manchester, Liverpool and Blackpool, it's in the northwest of England and I was born in Surrey and I went to buy a pie so. But I was doing it at the express request of Makerfield local hero Lem Sissy who gave me a tour. Can I ask you a question? Just asked. There was a customer went by so can I ask you a question? He said I'm busy. Do you think people are heartily fed up of talking about, you know what, there is a by election fatigue, I think that's setting in now. Now it's, you know, a woman said to me, she said she couldn't go to this, she couldn't go to Baya Pasty without somebody asking her which way

[Joe Pike]

she was going to vote.

[Paddy]

But this is, this is the heat

[Joe Pike]

of election, heat of a by election.

[Paddy]

It's been really nice of you to stop and talk to me and obviously you don't really, didn't really want to. So I think I must buy something. But what?

[Laura]

Go for a butter pie or a potato meat Pie.

[Paddy]

Should we get one of each? Let's do that. There's no butter pie. There's no butter.

[Laura]

She sold it.

[Paddy]

Just sold. You just sold it to the man who wouldn't speak to me.

[Joe Pike]

That's the way it should be.

[Paddy]

The constituent. The constituent gets the final vote on the butter pie. When he said he's busy. He's busy eating my butter piece long. That isn't it.

[Laura]

But I love it. You didn't even get the pie. And that's quite right because the public comes first, not any member of the dreadful political media class. Quite right.

[Paddy]

Let's get underway talking about the actual politics in by election cast.

[Laura]

Newscast Newscast from the BBC.

[Joe Pike]

The political circus is coming to town.

[Paddy]

Make a few. Given one heck of a responsibility.

[Laura]

I don't remember a byelection like that. We're in this sort of holding pattern until that by election, I think the

[Luke Trill]

most important by election contest in the past 50 years.

[Paddy]

Blimey. It's Laura in the studio, Paddy in the studio.

[Joe Pike]

It's Joe Bike in the studio and

[Laura]

hello to Luke Trill.

[Luke Trill]

Great to be with you.

[Laura]

Very nice to have you here. So before we get into Makerfield, Makerfield or Breakerfield, another excuse to say and I'm really intrigued to hear what you guys found when you were there. I haven't been so I really want to hear what you found and I'm going to get busy also reading all the transcripts from all the focus groups that you've done because it's really important to hear about that. But let's look at the numbers that we have on the possible ways where people are going to vote. Luke Trill.

[Luke Trill]

Yeah, so we did a constituency poll over the past couple of weeks. So that's asking people in Makerfield how they would vote in a by election. We spoke to around 500 people which is about standard for that type of poll. And what we found was that andy Burnham got 45% of the vote. Robert Kenyon was just five points behind. He's the reform candidate on 40%. But interestingly Rebecca shepherd, the Restore Britain candidate, that party led by Rupert Lowe was on 8%. So in fact the Restore vote share was bigger than the gap between labor and Reform, the Greens, the Conservatives and the Liberal democrats all under 5%. So not keeping their deposit there. And the other thing that we found is even at this stage in the contest, around 1 in 8 voters still hadn't made up their mind. And they're not people who might sit it out. They were people who said I'm going to vote, but I still haven't decided how. So, you know, there's a big margin of error on a poll like that. Lots of undecideds, a close race. Restore, you know, their vote bigger than the gap. So, you know, basically lots to play for in the final week.

[Laura]

So interesting for lots of reasons, but just apart from anything else, a few weeks ago, I think we talked about RESTORE a little bit. And if you haven't been following this closely, Restore are a party on the right of reform who came about because their leader, Rupert Lowe, had a big fallout with Nigel Farage. And until really recently, whenever we were talking about it, they're kind of an, an online creation really. But we're seeing here a sort of online froth and excitement. Particular bits of the Internet actually turn into something that might be a party that gets lots and lots of real votes. Has that surprised you, Luke?

[Luke Trill]

It has, and I think it points to something bigger than just restore. I think it's a changing nature of our politics, actually, that the barriers to entry, social media has basically broken down the barriers to entry to what is essentially a one man band political party, as you say, you know, founded because Rupert Lowe fell out with Nigel Farage and Zia Youssef. But the interesting thing is, if you look at Rupert Lowe's, he has about 1.2, 1.3 million Facebook followers. It's almost twice as many as the Prime Minister has got. And when you speak to people, it's on social media that they have heard about him and that has allowed him to cut through. And certainly, you know, both in the focus group and going around the constituency, there were RESTORE posters in the windows there. So they're clearly making an impact. So they are a real force.

[Laura]

So, Jo, you spent time sitting, listening, which is something that perhaps some dreadful members of the political media class don't do often enough. What were your reflections then, being there?

[Joe Pike]

Well, I mean, Luke was doing the chairing. I was sitting in the corner with a furrow brown and a notepad, like a sort of, I don't know, an Ofsted inspector or a supply teacher or something, I don't know, sitting in the corner as Luke very carefully and warmly chatted up of eight people from different jobs, some retired, some in people in sort of logistics. We had an architect, a teacher, someone in aerospace. And what was interesting about how Luke sort of chaired this group, speaking over about an hour, was that he made an encouraging noise, whatever they said, trying to get people to be confident, to get their views out. And for every view to be expressed. And I think what was most interesting for me was that people were really engaged. The awareness of the candidates and the parties seemed pretty high to me, considering you vox pot people on the street and some people aren't really aware of politics or politicians at all. People had really engaged. I think the BBC question time program, the fact you have a by election where you have your own question time for an hour is a pretty amazing sort of televised hustings.

[Paddy]

Basically, under our system, Makerfield is being its own parliament. And so what was said to me very eloquently was people in the north of England and in Scotland and in Wales, they look down at London and think that's what London does. London does all the sort of chattering bits that make the decisions. But actually, guess what? This is Makerfield. Who could pick the prime minister? So one woman put it really eloquently to me. She stopped Lem Sisi on the street. He's a poet. And she came up with two words or one hyphenated word, Laura, for what it feels like to be a voter right now in the Makerfield constituency.

[Laura]

Nice to see you.

[Paddy]

Yeah.

[Laura]

I'm from the Ashland Grammar School, before it was Birchill.

[Joe Pike]

Okay. I was the first year of Birchill.

[Laura]

Yeah. Good to see you.

[Paddy]

We're here because your Makerfield's in the middle of the news. Are you fed up with it? As a Khalid living here?

[Laura]

I'm not fed up with it. I'm quite excited by the buzz. But it's quite a burden, privilege to be able to vote at this time and needs to be taken seriously.

[Paddy]

That's a poetic word, Lem. That's your job. Oh, it's beautiful. Burden, privilege, gorgeous.

[Laura]

It's really interesting that, isn't it? I mean, forget Iowa. In the States, the primary's all over there. I mean, this is an extraordinary thing actually, by any measure, a by election where a man who we know wants to be the prime minister is trying to get his way back to parliament, who will probably at some point, if he wins, maybe quite quickly, say, all right, Kier, jobs are good and I managed to win a by election. If he does. See you later.

[Joe Pike]

Everyone was talking about leaflets as well, Laura. I mean, we had people who said if I'd. If I'd come, if I'd been on holiday for two weeks, I'd have come back. I wouldn't have been able to open my front door. Another woman who likened the situation she was facing to the scene in Harry Potter in the first Fillmore book where all those letters from Hogwarts arrive and sort of a pile of letters appear before him, just because there'd be multiple leaflets a day. And some of them were actually quite frustrated by that, saying, I'll read the first couple. I'm not going to read, you know, the 15th. And there were people who found it exciting and yet a privilege, but others who were slightly suspicious of all these, not just politicians but political campaigners that were suddenly knocking on their door, caring about your community. One woman said, I've been living this area for five years. No one's ever done that before. Why are they only coming now? It's because they want something different.

[Laura]

And Paddy, you were there, you know, what was your impression? You've. You've got many years experience of just, you know, turning up in a place with your microphone, trying to get a sense of what's on people's minds.

[Paddy]

So there are 11 wards in Makerfield and Luke and I were talking about the fact that actually among the outer parts of the constituency, which is about 76,000. Is it, people feel that Ashton's hogged quite a lot of the limelight. And that's a reminder, actually, that where you live is where you live. And all people like us swooping in, you know, do we know the difference? Do we just come from Wigan on the train and do we pass through a constituency which has its own issue? The library has closed down and there's a campaign to get it open again in Ashton. Are we talking about that? So I would say what I really feel is that people are faced with an important vote and they are aware of its moment in time. It's not like they all want us to go away. They're aware. Luke, did you find yourself that they know they've got an important cross on

[Luke Trill]

the pa, on the paper and to sort of build on what Joe is saying. I have never found this level of political engagement or awareness in a by election. He's, you know, because we focus group most by elections, not quite as much as we've done in Makefield. And most of the time people won't be able to name the candidates. Most of the time people like, I might vote, I might not vote. Obviously reflects in the turnout for these

[Laura]

elections because they tend to be lower than a generation.

[Luke Trill]

Yeah, this is totally different. People have views on the candidates and you've also got. And actually, I think it's a slightly unhealthy way. You know, I think a degree of disengagement is, you know, usually a sign that people are broadly Content. Whereas at the moment you've got people playing sort of 3D chess, you know, people who aren't ordinarily in politics. One guy said, look, I would never vote Labour normally, but I know I can't get Labour out in the next few years, but I can get Keir Starmer out if I vote Labour this time. But I had someone else in another group who said basically the entire opposite of that. She said, I love Keir Starmer. I think she was the only one we found. But, you know, she said, I love Keir Starmer and I'm prepared to have a dud MP in Robert Kenyon, because she was a Labour supporter rather than a dud Prime Minister. So she was going to tactically vote reform to help Kia Stuart. I mean, as I said, she was the only one like the vote. But you've got, yeah, you know, people who basically don't engage in politics, really thinking this through. And I think in general, most people kind of welcome the kind of privilege of being able to pick this and think it's very important and think there's going to be a change. But at the same time, there is a feeling, and I've heard for more than One person, Friday 19 June, does the circus just pack up and are we just, you know, forgotten about again? Either because Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister, doesn't come back, or Robert Kenyon is just a backbench mp.

[Paddy]

Shall we three commit to going back within three, six, nine months? Should we not be those people? Should we do the same thing all over again?

[Joe Pike]

Definitely. I mean, certainly good for scrutiny. Whoever wins wins the bar.

[Paddy]

Because we hardly ever talk about Josh Simons anymore, do we?

[Laura]

I mean, and he was the mp.

[Paddy]

He was the MP who said, oh, here's the thing, you can have my seat, Andy Burnham. That's how our system works. Well, if he wins it.

[Luke Trill]

But you can't. But the weird thing, the weird thing is, and again, this is another quirk of this. By election, almost every focus group I've done, people have had good things to say about Josh Simons. Again, you know, I've done tons of focus groups in Labour's 20, 24 intake seats. Basically, none of them know who their MP is. And that's fine, that's normal. But the weird thing is you do focus groups in Makerfield. People like, well, Josh did this, Josh did that, Josh did this. You know, I actually slightly wondered afterwards whether he slightly ruined giving up his seat because he was clearly quite popular there.

[Laura]

That's really interesting, because lots of People, for absolutely understandable reasons, don't know who their MP is. If they do know their MPs, they might not be very impressed by them.

[Paddy]

Are we predicting a big turnout?

[Luke Trill]

I would be surprised if this wasn't at the upper end for a by election, given the stakes, given the ground game.

[Laura]

And what would you put that at for newscasters? An upper end of a by election? 45.

[Luke Trill]

Well, I mean, turnout. So turnout in the general election was, I think, 52 and a half. So in, in that seat.

[Laura]

In that seat.

[Luke Trill]

In that seat. I wouldn't be surprised if it surpassed that.

[Laura]

Very interesting.

[Paddy]

Well, love a prediction.

[Laura]

We love a prediction and also we love an overnight program and there'll be a special overnight program on Makerfield on Thursday and we'll be on air until we know the result.

[Paddy]

So let's just turn to voters. You had a focus group, you asked a series of questions. Where should we start? Joe, you were the, you were the chief monitor, chief monitor, chief monitor, potential monitor. Where would you start us off in the Makefield focus group?

[Joe Pike]

I think the one thing that everybody in the group agreed on was having some form of skepticism about Keir Starmer. So these people were not saying necessarily you think he's a bad person or he has bad intentions, but the phrases that. Or the words, the language that came up a lot were he's not charismatic, he's not a leader. Someone said he's a middle manager over promoted. And there was just this pretty relentless negativity about his leadership and in particular also awareness about what happened this week and John Healey's resignation as the Defence Secretary. I think he has the best intent. I have a son in the army. I have a big, big interest in this and I think he's done the right thing. However, that's the worry for me is that we're going to go through this period of turmoil, in this dangerous period.

[Paddy]

So when he says he, he means Healey's done the right thing.

[Joe Pike]

He was supportive of Healey's decision to jump over defence funding. And you, Laura, have been digging into all of this.

[Laura]

Yeah, I mean, so there's a piece on the website which we've got some new details about what happened and also we've just been talking to people about whether or not this Healey domino falling means that actually after this byelection next week, that could be kaput for Keir Starmer because there is nothing worse for a Prime minister who's put your safety and security at the top of the list to have his defense secretary who basically everybody kind of likes in Westminster, which is very unusual to say. You're making us less safe with your decisions here. So what I'm told is on Tuesday, John Healy and the MOD went to see Danny street and said, this is not enough, this is not okay. We're not going to be able to do this figure. And the figure was bouncing between 10 billion, 13 and a half billion and 15 billion, literally, depending which way you counted it. But the MOD and Healey were incredibly unhappy. On Wednesday, John Healey had a conversation with Keir Starmer about it and basically said, up with this. I cannot put. They had a late night call where I'm told that John Healy said, I will quit if you go ahead with this. If you don't budge. Recollections then vary slightly. So Healey's camp suggests that Keir Starmer kind of said, okay, well let's both think about it. Overnight, number 10's camp say Starmer was cleared. That was his final decision and he wasn't going to budge. However, then on Thursday morning, John Healey didn't hear anything more. He'd been expecting and trying to get back some more feedback from Downing street, but by mid morning managed to get one of the political team on the phone, not Keir Starmer himself, but one of his team told him the Prime Minister wasn't budging and Healey's path and resignation was then set. But there's a lot of interesting background to this and I think from talking to defence sources and people kind of around the place, and you and I have talked a lot about defense spending actually, haven't we? At weekend newscasts, the. The rot set in, as it was put to me. Not just when the Prime Minister made that promise of extra funding at the NATO summit, was actually when the Strategic Defense Review, the big piece, was done. Anyway, I was told that John Healey, although everybody likes him, it was suggested to me that he'd never sort of fully absorbed that actually the money allocated in that review was never going to be enough anyway. And when the Prime Minister then made his commitment to NATO all of even more cash for defense, that black hole, if you like, had got even bigger. So it was a sort of a double problem. And John Healey's other mistake was suggested to me was that he told the Prime Minister and the Chancellor that he would not go back to them for any more cash when the defense review was settled. But then just a few months later, he went back to them and said, I'm gonna need more money. So this whole Thing was a complete mess and. But it's been a mess for quite a long time. Still, though, people are staggered that John Healy, of all people, actually walked. And it says something very, quite bad about the political handling of Downing street that you actually managed to lose somebody so loyal, so well respected and on an issue of principle. And I think it sowed all sorts of really bad problems. I also think if Keir Starmer was likely to be there for more than a few months, they're going to end up, as one senior figure said to me, they're going to have to do a U turn on this because the plan as is, is not credible according to that source. Anyway, let's go back to Makerfield, because I could wang on about that for far too long.

[Joe Pike]

No, really, really interesting. In Makerfield, we also spoke or Luke helped us elicit viewpoints on the different candidates, as we say, high awareness of the different candidates. In particular on Andy Burnham, of course, who seems to be at the centre of many ways of this contest, and I suppose on Andy Burnham, the views of the focus group attendees on his intentions really varied. I do kind of feel that he's seen an opportunity, he's taken it.

[Luke Trill]

Whether it works out for him, dunno.

[Joe Pike]

You know, a week's time will tell.

[Laura]

I totally agree with what you say. He's an opportunist. There's been a lot of talk about he's going just for Prime Minister and that the locals won't see him ever again. Like he disappears down to Downing street, never to be seen again. I don't believe that's the case. I do believe he is passionate about the people and the area. I think he's done a lot for Manchester as such, but not so much for the fringes like ourselves.

[Luke Trill]

How do you think he'd do as an mp?

[Laura]

I think he's charismatic, but I think he's saying a lot. I'd like to know what he's actually going to do.

[Paddy]

So interesting, the opportunist angle there. Is that like saying, I won't vote for him? Is that the same as saying I won't vote for him? Can you vote for him and think he's an opportunist?

[Joe Pike]

Yeah. I mean, there were certainly some people who did think that, saying, what's the problem with a politician who's ambitious? And they're all like this, they're all thinking about themselves in some way.

[Paddy]

Yeah.

[Luke Trill]

And again, this has been fairly consistent across the conversations we've been having with voters. There's a group who think Opportunist and I don't like it. There's a group who think opportunists and I do like it. And there's a group who think, no, I just think he's genuine and wants to do. And that. And that is about the one thing that I would say. And I, you know, I don't think enough people have taken this into account, but I can say quite confidently, I don't normally make predictions, but if Andy Burnham were not the candidate, this would not be a close race. Right. He clearly has the sort of personal vote that you don't really see in politics anymore. In fact, in that constituency poll, we also asked people about the favorability of different figures. And think of this contrast. Keir Starmer's favourability in Makerfield was net -48. Andy Burnham's is -7.

[Laura]

Wow.

[Luke Trill]

So it's a 55 point net gap there. And actually, even to be positive, I keep saying this to people, even to be positive, in our current era of anti politics, it just doesn't happen anymore. So he's clearly got something, but he's fighting against those who don't like the opportunism and the fact that, you know, demographically, this is right up there on Reform's target list.

[Laura]

But it's interesting because if he wins, and it's still an if, and the polling, you've told us about some of your polling, but the polling's pretty limited. You know, constituency polls can be quite sort of wacko. You know, the numbers are small, there's still quite a few days left, lots of undecideds, as you've told us. But that is exactly why, if he wins, Andy Barnum will be able to say to the Labour Party across the uk, look, I am the one who can stop a tidal wave. I am the one who can kill off, metaphorically our biggest problem, which is Reform uk. I'm the man who can do it. I'm a winner. Not in any old seat, but in a seat, as Luke's explained, that on paper in 2026 should be painted turquoise from top to bottom. And that if it win, if he wins, I think will be the core of his political argument to his colleagues, is choose me, get Starmer out or else you are going to get walloped.

[Paddy]

That's the mo, isn't there? Yeah, there's. Till it happens, especially in politics, you don't know it's actually happened. It's the strength of it, isn't it? It's the emotional impact to an intellectual thing, which is Kind of I've detected, I've been away, as you reminded. But the impact of the Healy resignation was emotional as well as it was intellectual. People went, huh, that just happened completely.

[Laura]

And a Cabinet minister said everyone would be very shaken by it. That was their word, shaken. And within about half an hour of it happened, somebody sent a silly gift to my phone just of a load of dominoes being knocked over, but who knows what, what impact and even the results. So let's just even be even more nerdy. If Barnum wins, if he wins by a big margin, he'll be held aloft. He'll be cheered all the way down by the Labour Party on the Avanti west coast train. If he squeaks it and only just wins, the whole dynamic of his return to Westminster will take on a very different sheen. All of which good reasons to watch, of course. Overnight on Baby. One second.

[Paddy]

Don't imagine that. Let's talk about other candidates. Robert Kenyon, who is standing for Reform UK now, we'll ask you what voters said about him alongside saying that quite a lot of his past has come back, remarks he may or may not have made, or has made how he characterizes them. Now. So there's been a campaign he could have run on a clear Farage manifesto, but has also had incoming. But what did you find the voters said about this one man?

[Joe Pike]

They, Paddy, were certainly aware of a lot of those past social media comments. Now, Robert Kenyon denies he is sexist, but it is the comments that some people interpret as sexist, which everyone in this focus group seemed to be really aware of, although they had different approaches to whether that mattered or not.

[Paddy]

So, in other words, they're polling very strongly. So it hasn't. It's not the same as saying they're down with the greens on 3%. They're still up there.

[Luke Trill]

I mean, yeah, I mean, they're still doing, you know, very well that, you know, in that poll, they're within a whisker of taking the seat. What I would say is, again, I think you get a variety of camps when it comes to comedy gifts. And people say, well, we all say silly things. You know, if we saw everyone's social media history, we'd all be unemployable. You get another group who say, no, no, if those comments speak for yourself. Well, not everyone has to follow BBC codes. You know, there's another group who say, no, if I did that in my job, I'd lose my job. And, you know, interestingly, fathers of daughters, I've noticed, being amongst the group who are most kind of upset by it. And then you get another group who say, fine, you make mistakes. And I think this is the key group and I think this is where reform have made an error, who say, I understand people make those comments. Why hasn't he apologized for it? If he apologized, it would show that he'd learn. And I just wonder whether reform have made a mistake in trying to learn again. I think reform always make mistakes when they try and learn lessons from America, which don't translate here, because obviously the Trump mantra, never apologize, plow forward, doesn't matter. Whereas actually British voters, an apology really matters to them. And I think if he'd done that, this would be less of an issue than it is now. But as you say, clearly not disqualifying. He's clearly going to do very well even if he doesn't win next week.

[Laura]

Should we have a listen to what people had to say about him?

[Paddy]

First things we heard about his social media and I think, wow, sexist, despicable views about a lot of things makes

[Jeremy Vine]

me feel very uncomfortable.

[Luke Trill]

Let me bring in Lizzie, because you look like you have a different point

[Paddy]

of view and then we'll be, yeah,

[Laura]

So I disagree first off on. On the comments that have come out about him. So some of these comments were made such a long time ago and the issue we've got in nowadays is the media. Social media makes things sound so much worse. He's a local lad, he's a local plumber, he knows the area, he's from the area and he's not overly ambitious like Andy. He doesn't have a clue what he's doing. And in a way, I feel a tiny bit sorry for him because he's been put up there and he clearly can't handle it, but yet he's being left to flounder there.

[Joe Pike]

People are so reasonable and quite sympathetic in different ways. Like there weren't people really properly going for anyone. You have Jackie there was saying, you know, I think he's had a really tough campaign, he hasn't been very good. But there is empathy for the different politicians. A bit like we had around Starmer, people who didn't really like him but were saying, look, I don't think he's a bad guy, he's having a tough time.

[Paddy]

But also going back to the earlier point about his charisma, he was partly voted for because he wasn't charismatic. Boris Johnson got them into that was one of his strengths at one point. But can we just go back to under the bonnet of polling. Do you invite me in to say please come and talk about the Makerfield by election or do you keep it mysterious why I'm coming in?

[Luke Trill]

Yeah, so this is really important. This is one of the most important things about focus group because people often assume that we kind of recruit them like a question time audience come and have your say about politics. And that is the opposite that we want because people who like to talk about politics are weird, right? You know, they're unusual. So actually. Well no, I know. No, no, unusual, unusual, unusual. And so the way that we do it is people are recruited for a focus group in the first instance where they could be coming to talk about mouthwash or a new road safety campaign or politics. We obviously tell them then before, but only once they've been selected that this is going to be a focus group about politics. And that is so important because you don't just want really engaged people.

[Joe Pike]

And certainly the end of the focus group we did on Friday there were, yeah we had some cameras, they're obviously filming it and lots of microphones and at the end they were saying so what are you, who are you? What's it being filmed for? So there was absolutely no awareness that they were going to be on BBC1 5 past 10 explaining their views even though of course they'd given sort of consent to be filmed. And that in a way meant that I think we got something that was far more honest and human and wasn't people thinking oh I want to be on, on telly.

[Paddy]

Yeah, because we're living in very tribal, polarized times and, and this kind of echo chamber where you are wrong and you're not going to change my mind. So the idea that people are sort of happily milling around talking to each other without knowing that they were going in to have to give a particular pitch is perhaps why they've got that generosity that you're talking about.

[Laura]

Yeah, maybe so. And I think also when you say and partly you're being very self effacing. Look, the people who talk about politics are, are weird and, and unusual. That's true. That applies to capital P politics. I think if you think of politics as how good your kids school is, whether or not there's potholes in your role in your road, how much your energy bill is, who do you want your MP to be? Maybe, maybe not quite so much on that one but I think actually that is a small P political conversation and I always kind of slightly rail at, you know, the site most people are not following Westminster or Holyrood or The Senate or what's happening in their local council obsessively in the way that we do. But small P politics is something everyone is engaged in, maybe if they don't even kind of wouldn't describe it that way. Which is why those conversations that you lead, and I've seen loads of them, they're so important because they actually are. They're that interface, that coal face between punters and politics, even though it's not. Oh, did you see what happened at the Select Committee last Thursday weekend when somebody from the Department of Paperclips was really under pressure?

[Paddy]

Exactly. Did that happen?

[Laura]

I know, it was so amazing. I'll tell you later. Whole podcast on it tomorrow.

[Paddy]

But I've got. Cause I've got. I'll add another letter to your P, which is W. Go on. My theory is, if you could make it work, you're gonna get votes. If you can do it. Take any doorstepable issue and say this broken thing, let's call it potholes, we're gonna amend them. I think that gets. I think that generates votes. But no one's asking me my opinion, Luke.

[Luke Trill]

No one's asking your opinion. You could do a focus group with you in it. I think you might be a bit unusual. But the interesting thing is at the end, the number of times I've done focus group focus groups, and at the end, people have said, and I think this should be a lesson to politicians, the number of people said, no one's ever asked me this stuff before. I'm just. It's so nice to be, like, asked and to talk about it. And, you know, and as Joe saw, we had people on an issue like immigration, for instance, people had vastly different views in that focus group. You know, there was, you know, one gentleman, Andy, who thought it was the biggest challenge facing the country. There were others who. I think it was Karen, who, you know, had a very different view on immigration, yet they were able to talk about it in a way which was quite far removed from what we often see. But because they had that space to do it, and I think we need more of those spaces.

[Laura]

It also shows you another currency in politics, which is the currency of showing up and asking people what they think.

[Paddy]

He's been eight times to make a feel eight times.

[Laura]

What's changed in the time then? What has changed in people's mind? Has anything changed?

[Luke Trill]

So I think a couple of things. So I think the question time actually was a moment and again, to have, you know, people who I suspect do not tune into Question Time that regularly so glued onto it. I think that was a moment. I think it did lead to some more questions about Kenyon for some people, less about the social media and more about the sort of readiness to do it. Like you heard from Jackie in, in that clip. I think the Restore, you know, presence has definitely sort of ticked up and. Yeah, and Musk's involvement as well. But the broad contours have actually stayed, you know, pretty much the same throughout the contest. When we started and did our first focus group, you know, the big issue that people were discussing basically was do we want the Prime Minister as our constituency mp? And that was basically the same question that we heard this Friday going to

[Laura]

be really, really, really fascinating. And I think in the Labour Party, the conversation. I don't know, Jo, if you've got anywhere with this in the last few days I've been trying to ask people when I speak to them, what happens and what do you do if Andy Burnham doesn't win?

[Joe Pike]

And this may be problematic if things don't go this way. But I've not met anyone in the Labour Party who thinks Andy Burnham is not going to win and they haven't really considered that question. You've just put.

[Laura]

That's why.

[Joe Pike]

It's a good one to ask why. What on earth happens next? And if he does win? Oh, there are a whole host of different people who have different theories about how quick and slow, whether there'll be a contest or coronation, whether Andy Burnham's leadership, if he were to win it is continuity or change, all those dynamics are there. We should also say that we did mention other parties in the focus group. There were people talking positively about the Greens and their sort of radicalism. According to a couple of people, the Conservative candidate had gone down well. Luke asked people about the Liberal Democrats and the sort of question was who? In a slightly jokey way, because they didn't seem to be that present. But also as we've touched on, there was a high awareness of Rupert Lowe and his party restored. That was something that had really cut through. And some people who would maybe otherwise have voted Reform certainly seemed tempted.

[Luke Trill]

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[Laura]

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[Luke Trill]

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[Laura]

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[Luke Trill]

Good Bad Billionaire is taking a closer look at the life and fortune of

[Laura]

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[Luke Trill]

Listen now, wherever you get your BBC podcasts.

[Joe Pike]

Baristool. Rupert Lowe talks a lot of sense. You might not like him, you might like his opinions, but for what he wants to do for the country and for the betterment of the people in it, I think is the way forward. I have similar views on Restore as I have with Reform. I think Restore is just reform on steroids. Do I go Restore? Do we go reform? Now a lot of you saying, well, I'm not very reformed. So what you're effectively doing is saying I'll have some more of what I've already had and I don't like what I've. What I've already had.

[Laura]

So lots to talk about in the next few days. It really could be. Well, it will. Whatever happens, it will be a moment of history. But it might be a moment of profound history. The next Prime Minister of the country could be chosen on the stage alongside Count Bin Face. That would be a moment of British politics. Goodness me. Traditionally, Paddy, the BBC, particularly on the wireless you read out the candidate list but newscast has been doing something unusual to make that slightly more interesting than normal.

[Paddy]

We have been going to favourite much loved voices around broadcasting.

[Laura]

So you.

[Paddy]

No, actually, no, certainly not. And here is a very surprising one.

[Jeremy Vine]

Hey, Paddy. Laura, Newscasters, it's Jeremy vine here. Gotta admit, I'm in my I say garden. That's a bit of an exaggeration. It's. It's got some grass and a tree and a bit of wind at the moment so forgive me, I know it's not ideal but I must read out the 14 candidates standing in the maker field by election on Thursday 18 June. We have to do it in alphabetical order. The candidates are Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats Count Binface Count Binface Party Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Dan Clark, the Libertarian Party John Dyer, Independent Ed Gemmell, Climate Party Paul Gould, Independent Alan Howlin, Lord Hope the official monster raving loony party Robert Kenyon, Reform UK Robert Pownall, Independent Rebecca Shepherd, Restore Britain Sarah Wakefield, Green Party Peter Ward, rejoin EU Michael Winstanley, Conservative Got a little plane going overhead which may be carrying campaigning leaflets there. I don't know. The same full list of candidates plus loads more information about Makerfield and the byelection is available on the BBC website. Hey you guys. Laura, Paddy, can't wait to see you. Catch you later. I was just about to read the last thing on this. I can pop this over on email if you prefer. That was from your producer of Course,

[Laura]

the wonderful, great, recognizable voice of the Vine, Jeremy vine there helping us out with the candidate list. I've got to say, I love the wireless, I really, really do. But also on telly, you can just say, here's the list and move on.

[Paddy]

Anyway, who's on your sofa tomorrow?

[Laura]

Well, Lisa Nandi has the lucky ticket of coming up to speak for the government after a fairly terrible week and a tricky few days ahead. We'll also, and this might be on the news by the time you're watching this. We've been speaking to Ian Russell, of course, the probably the most prominent online safety campaigner for children who lost his daughter Molly all those years ago. We've done a really interesting interview with Ian just on. In advance of the Prime Minister announcing what we think will be a social media ban for under 16s on Monday. And Ian tells us that it is deplorable, to use his word, if the Prime Minister is rushing into doing what he thinks is basically a sledgehammer to crack a nut. He thinks the government's going about this in the wrong way. But also he has revealed some research to us which you can read about on the website probably by now, by the time you're listening to this, where essentially he says all the harmful content that Molly saw that contributed to her death is still out there. And research for his foundation has shown that half of girls are seeing harmful content every week. So we know that people care about this issue. We'll be hearing more about that in the coming days.

[Paddy]

You have followed that from the very beginnings of his campaign. We will talk about Belfast and the efforts to rehome people whose homes were torched by mobs. Welcome to the news cycle that we now live in. And we will cover a certain football match that happens at two in the morning between Haiti and and Scotland.

[Laura]

And all will be revealed tomorrow. We've got our special own reporter at the match.

[Paddy]

Are you going to stay up?

[Laura]

Well, I'm normally. Well, I might almost be up anyway for the end of the match because it starts at 2, doesn't it? And I normally get up at 4 on a Sunday. So if it goes to penalties, I mean, do I. Do I get up half an hour earlier to see the last in the first rounds? I don't know. Don't know. You're looking at me and Paddy and that is just not going to be a mistake.

[Paddy]

I think the answer I asked this office answer is no.

[Luke Trill]

No, but.

[Laura]

So I don't know. I mean, you know, don't come home too soon. The tragic Scottish single from the last World Cup Run Qu. Ask the answers on a qu. Answers on a postcard. Whose song was that?

[Paddy]

Okay. Ali McLeish.

[Laura]

So rude. So rude. Dellamitri, of course, right?

[Paddy]

Joe and Luke, you came in here with your serious work. So we thank you very much for bringing us your the findings of all and your eight times to make Phil and Joe you your monitor roll and make a film. Please join Laura on the TV and three on Radio 4 tomorrow. That's the end of by election cast.

[Laura]

Goodbye everyone.

[Joe Pike]

Goodbye.

[Luke Trill]

Goodbye.

[Laura]

Newscast Newscast from the BBC.

[Joe Pike]

Thank you so much for making it to the end of Newscast. You clearly copyright Chris Mason Ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Don't forget you can email us anytime. It's newscastbc.co.uk and if you would like to join our Discord community to talk

[Luke Trill]

about about everything newscast related, there is a link in the description of this podcast and don't be scared. It's super easy to click on it

[Joe Pike]

and then get set up. Or you can WhatsApp us on 033-01-239480 and I promise you we read and listen to every single message. Thanks for listening to this podcast by. What do Beatles member Sir Paul McCartney,

[Laura]

YouTube megastar MrBeast and former Facebook executive

[Joe Pike]

Sheryl Sandberg all have in common?

[Laura]

They're all being discussed in the new season of Good Bad Billionaire, the podcast which explores the lives and fortunes of the world's super rich.

[Luke Trill]

That's Good Bad Billionaire from the BBC World Service.

[Laura]

Listen now. Search for Good Bad Billionaire wherever you get your BBC podcasts.