Joe Pike (2:09)

sliver me in the classroom doing our violin lessons.

Chris Mason (2:11)

I was the tattletail in the classroom. Can I have an apology please?

Adam Fleming (2:14)

I trust almost nobody.

Luke Trill (2:15)

Then daddy has to sometimes do strong language.

Joe Pike (2:18)

Next time in Moscow I feel delulu with no salulu Take me down the Downing street left go have a tour.

Chris Mason (2:25)

Blimey.

Adam Fleming (2:27)

Hello, I'm Adam Fleming. I'm host of the BBC's Daily News podcast Newscast, which you can get every day on BBC Sounds or wherever you get your podcasts. But this morning we're doing a live episode for some breaking political news which is the result of the Gorton and Denton by election which has been won by the Green Party, a vote some people are Calling seismic. Some people are calling dramatic, but there's lots to say about it, about why it's happened and what the implications of it will be for British politics. And also a chance to get to know the newest member of who is Hannah Spencer from the Green Party of England and Wales. We'll be joined over the next few minutes by lots of friends of the podcast who will pop up from random places, including hopefully Gorton and Denton itself. But to kick us off, we're joined by Joe pike, political correspondent at the BBC Morning Joe.

Joe Pike (3:11)

Good morning, Adam.

Adam Fleming (3:12)

And Luke Trill, pollster extraordinaire. For more in common. Hello, Luke.

Luke Trill (3:15)

Good morning.

Adam Fleming (3:16)

Right, what I always remember from covering by elections as a political correspondent is there's a whole welter of numbers and sometimes I got a little bit confused and it was a bit like playing the numbers round of Countdown. What is number that we can just really grip onto this morning? That explains why this is such a big deal.

Luke Trill (3:34)

I think it's that The Greens got 40.7% of the vote. Their previous highest ever in a by election was 10.2%. So this result was four times higher than anything that they've achieved before.

Adam Fleming (3:49)

And a quadrupling in anything is big, but in British politics, quadrupling something is enormous.

Luke Trill (3:54)

Yeah, absolutely enormous. You know, I mean, you know, the word seismic is overused in politics, overused when it comes to elections. But this is genuinely seismic. And the one thing we now know for certain is that the Polanski hype, the Polanski momentum, what we've been seeing in the polls is real. It is translating into actual votes on the ground.

Adam Fleming (4:13)

Joe, give us a number.

Joe Pike (4:15)

Well, some previous numbers, not from tonight, is the extent of which to which this was a safe Labour seat. They won more than 50% of. Of the vote in Gorton, Denton, at the last election in the action before the notional share of the vote was almost 70%, about 65%. So this is what was a safe Labour seat in a Labour city, in a Labour region. And yet I think there are a lot of Labour MPs and perhaps candidates for both the Senate and Holyrood, the Scottish and Welsh elections in May, who are going to be seeing this result and thinking, what does this mean for me, this is a sort of lights flashing on the dashboard moment for Keir Starmer's party.

Adam Fleming (4:57)

And it's quite hard to do one of those election night graphics on a podcast because it is just us talking. But I'll try and do it in words. So you've got the Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer with a vote share of 41%. And so that's up 28% compared to the last time this seat was fought. Matt Goodwin, who was the Reform UK candidate, he got 29% of the vote. Then the Labour candidate, Angeliki stoia, she got 26%. And then the Conservatives and, and the lib dams, I mean, they got 2% each, which means they, they, it's called losing their deposit in the jargon. Like they lose the money they had to pay to stand in the election because they got less than 5%.

Joe Pike (5:31)

Particularly embarrassing for the Conservatives because they came, what, second in 2019. You know, Manchester, Greater Manchester is, is not necessarily a sort of Conservative stronghold, but in the sort of outer regions. If you look at sort of Bolton and Berry there, there are definitely places they've done well before.

Adam Fleming (5:51)

Right, Chris Mason is here. Well, he's not here, he's actually in the constituency. Morning, Chris.

Chris Mason (5:57)

Hello. Morning.

Adam Fleming (5:57)

Did you stay up all night for every single second of it?

Chris Mason (6:02)

Well, no, not quite. I had about two hours kip. So I had two hours kip. I've got this, I've got this little. This is a classic kind of first world problem thing, a very small violin problem thing. But I've got this theory when I do work trips that the smaller the amount of time that I have in the hotel, the better the quality of the hotel room. So I turned up at the hotel room at about quarter past eleven, lovely tray of biscuits on the table, blah, blah, blah. It was very close to the count centre and I thought, this hotel room is unbelievable. But I've got about two hours to get some kips. I want to be back in the count centre by about 2, 2:30 in case the result comes at about 3. Actually came at about half past four. But what a story. I mean, it's extraordinary, isn't it? First time the Green Party have ever won a Westminster parliamentary by election. The first time the Green Party has ever won a Westminster seat in the north of England and the 11th consecutive by election to Westminster where there's been a change of party after the results. So just sort of snapshots those in a couple of stats of. Yeah, the turbulence of our, of our politics at the moment.

Adam Fleming (7:11)

I sometimes feel when I've reported on by elections in the past, that the person wins and you talk about them for about five seconds and then the conversation straight away goes to someone else, normally the Prime Minister of the day. And I'm now going to be guilty of doing that. What do you think this Means for Keir Starmer,

Chris Mason (7:29)

I think this is the nightmare that they've feared for a while and is now playing out for real in this court corner of Greater Manchester. It was one thing and it's still obviously a very significant thing, the pressure that they feel from Reform uk. There's been this intense debate going on in the Labour Party for the last year or so about how they should respond to the rise of Reform uk, with some saying that they had to be much more acknowledging of the appeal of reform and frankly, tilt in a reform direction. You had other figures within the party, privately and publicly, saying that you can't out reform reform. So that argument has been live, it has been turbocharged, I suspect, as a result of the result overnight. If my WhatsApp's or anything to go by from the last few hours, that argument is beginning already because now Labour face, clearly, it would seem, an insurgency to its left with the Green Party as well as an insurgency broadly to its right from Reform uk. And if you're the Labour Party or you're a Labour mp, you're going to think, well, hang on a minute, which way do we possibly turn? How do we pivot in response to a by election down the road from here in Cheshire last year won by Reform and then a by election here in Greater Manchester now won by the Green Party. So it's really tricky. And remember, this is the kind of seat that Labour was winning easily and won easily under two years ago with more than 50% of the vote. And they end up in third, beaten by both Reform and the Greens. Really quite something, Luke.

Adam Fleming (9:08)

You were nodding along to quite a lot of that.

Luke Trill (9:09)

Yeah. What's actually staggering about the result is if you look at the combined Green Reform share, they're at about 70%. That's 70% for these insurgent anti establishment parties. Whereas the Tories and Labour, between them, you traditional two big parties, government on around 26, 27%. You know, it just epitomizes that sea change in our politics. And Chris is absolutely right. He's landed on what I think is Labour's central problem now, in that we're seeing a mirror of what happened to Boris Johnson's coalition when he faced that pincer movement. It was Rishi Sunak that ultimately faced it in the election. Losing votes to the right from their 2019 coalition to reform, losing votes to the left to the Liberal Democrats and Labour not being clear which way to turn. We're now seeing history repeat itself with Labour's 2024 coalition losing votes to the Greens losing votes to reform and it's not easy to come up with a unifying glue that brings those wings together.

Adam Fleming (10:10)

Joe, you were on the ground in the constituency quite a few times during the campaign. Tell us some things that you picked up from, from just being there that explain what has happened.

Joe Pike (10:20)

I think Gaza was certainly an issue that many people felt very strongly about and influenced votes.

Adam Fleming (10:27)

The people feeling that, what, Keir Starmer had been too pro Israeli and hadn't done enough to help people in Gaza.

Joe Pike (10:33)

Yeah, I suppose. I suppose so. Certainly the Greens had the Palestinian flag on their leaflets and they had stickers there, sort of pin badges that Hannah Spencer, the Green candidate now mp, wore. That was certainly one issue. There are a lot of people who told me they felt the area was left behind, that, you know, this is an area that is very diverse, 28% Muslim, but also quite high levels of poverty. Relative child poverty is above the national average. A lot of people in the Denton part of the constituency, the east part of the constituency, who seem big fans of Nigel Farage and reform, who spoke about immigration and even people I spoke to who were Green voters talked about integration as something that mattered to them and that sort of services to support people who'd arrived in the UK needed to improve. But there are also people who went there who think Keir Starmer, especially Labour campaigns, think Keir Starmer was a massive drag on their ticket. Would the result have been different if Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor, had not been blocked by Starmer and company at the the National Executive Committee? Also possibly it could have been a slightly different result if the other potential Labour candidate had got it because Angeliki Stoyer, who member selected, wasn't actually number 10's choice, that was one of the local council leaders.

Adam Fleming (11:57)

Chris, I'm sorry to sound a bit like a by election grinch, but are there so many sort of factors that make this unique that actually maybe we shouldn't read across too much to the general British political picture? And I realized as soon as I finished saying that sentence that that's not a very good theory that, like, it does absolutely matter. But I'm just trying to sort of put this in a bit of perspective

Chris Mason (12:21)

and I'm going to do the classic reporter sitting on a street corner a couple of hours after a bio, lecture, result and say, possibly, because that can neither be contradicted one way nor the other. Look, I think two things can be true at the same time, can't they? So by elections, by definition happen in isolation. It's one seat out of 650 has an intense focus and glare from folk like me. You know, this is not traditionally the kind of seat that would be deluged with reporters on a general election night, because traditionally the result is very predictable and it goes in Labour's direction. So there's a lot of focus upon it. People here voting in the violation. I noticed by, by the way, a chap who's just stepped out of the newsagent to my right as being vox popped by some of our colleagues with his newspaper. Now completely sodden as a result, and now in my sleep deprived state, I've lost my train of thought. Oh yeah, the intense focus on this byelection where people know that they're not picking a party of government. But at the same time, as we know when we reflect on newscast about by elections. Yes, there's all the numbers, but sentiment is key. They create the political weather at Westminster, often perhaps in an outsized way, perhaps not necessarily in a way that perfectly captures the wider mood of the country or to an extent might, but it absolutely shift the mood and create that weather. And that's why they matter, because Labour MPs in particular will be fretting now in multiple directions. That's why this will have that sort of outsized sense. And from the Greens perspective, just to pick up on your earlier point, Adam, about how occasionally in the analysis of byelections, people reflect for a nanosecond on the victor and then spend far more time talking about the defeated. You know, from Zach Polanski's perspective, he has re engaged, re energised, revitalised the Green Party of England and Wales, taken it in a different direction from where it was going under its previous leadership. But he can now point to a result that suggests that there is more than something in those national opinion poll ratings which have climbed substantially since he has been the party's leader. And he'll be able to point to this result to say that his strategy, his pivot in terms of where he's taken the party note in that declaration, that victory speech from the new MP here, not all that many references to Green capital G, green environmental issues. Zach Polanski be able to point to that pivot as something that at least in a place like this has worked and the opinion poll suggests has some, has some resonance elsewhere too.

Adam Fleming (15:02)

But Luke, yeah, the Green Party of England and Wales now under Zach Polanski, is quite a different Green Party from the one that was under, say, I don't know, Natalie Bennett, their Australian leader, a Few years ago.

Luke Trill (15:11)

Yeah, absolutely. They have become a sort of eco populist party. What is that more of an. Well, you know, they've got that green tinge, but they've got that real focus on sort of left wing economics. You know, Zach Polanski talks a lot about the cost of living crisis, about the role of billionaires, about de rigging the system. You know, he's made the party a repository for people who are unhappy with the system. Sort of similar to people going to reform, but offering a progressive alternative. There's one thing I would just build on what Chris said, though, that I think is quite important when you asked, you know, is this just a one off? We already know it's not a one off because this is the second by election where Labour have found themselves pushed into third place and a challenger to their left has emerged in first place. There was that Caerphilly by election that plied won, with reform in the middle, happened here as well. And that is really important because what that means is, you know, Labour were banking on being able to say to voters on the left, you know, you've got to stick with us because we're the only people who can beat reform. The so called Macron strategy. We've now got two examples of voters going, actually, no, we're going to go for the full fat version. And that will make it much harder for them in May and beyond to say, you've got to pick us in a fight with reform.

Adam Fleming (16:31)

And Starmer may be right to have pursued that strategy, but only right in some places and not necessarily in enough places for Labour to win the next election.

Luke Trill (16:39)

Yeah, absolutely. And you're going to get more skepticism from voters now who can go, well, you said that to us in Manchester, you said that to us in Cavilly and you were wrong. So I'm just going to do what I want. And that could hurt them both in contests directly with the Greens, but also against reform.

Adam Fleming (16:54)

Let's hear a little bit from Hannah Spencer, who is the new Westminster MP for Gorton and Denton. Here is a little bit of her victory speech a couple of hours ago.

Podcast Narrator (17:03)

I didn't grow up wanting to be a politician. I'm a plumber. And two weeks ago, during all this, I also qualified as a plasterer, because even in chaos, even under pressure, I get things done. I am no different to every single person here in this constituency. I work hard. That is what we do. Except things have changed a lot over the last few decades because working hard used to get you something. It got You, a house, a nice life, holidays, it got you somewhere. But now, working hard, what does that get you? Because talk to anyone here and they will tell you the people who work hard but can't put food on the table, can't get their kids school uniforms, can't put their heating on, can't live off the pension they worked hard to save for, can't even begin to dream about ever having a holiday, ever. Because life has changed. Instead of working for a nice life, we're working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry. And I don't think it's extreme or radical to think working hard should get you a nice life.

Chris Mason (18:15)

Yeah.

Adam Fleming (18:16)

Hannah Spencer there, kind of just embodying all the things you guys were just saying about the Greens. Recent tilt. Joe, tell us a bit more about Hannah Spencer.

Joe Pike (18:24)

I met her when she just finished that plastering course, just qualified as a plasterer. It seems like a strange thing to do in the middle of a by election campaign where you're a contender, but

Adam Fleming (18:34)

I suppose she didn't know it was going to happen.

Joe Pike (18:36)

Yeah. And she'd already probably paid probably quite a lot of money and she was doing that, I think, in Stoke. So it was quite a long drive from Stoke to South Manchester. She certainly, when I challenged her on some past comments she'd made criticizing her constituency as somewhere she wanted to get out of, she had a sort of straight talking, blunt authenticity in the way she responded, which was basically arguing, look, a lot of people you speak to here would agree with me that this isn't a great place and some people do want to move out. She'd also spoken about what she described as money laundering takeaways up the high street instead of sort of nicer bookshops and cafes. And again, she's like, yeah, well, a lot of people here might say the same. And actually, when I was voxbobbing people, there were various people who talked about what they saw as the decline of that local area, even though, as we said, there's a, there's a sort of big difference to the different communities. I think she was an impressive candidate. There were quite a lot of moments where she had to be on tv.

Adam Fleming (19:35)

There were the world's media descending.

Joe Pike (19:38)

Yeah. And she sort of. And she sort of, she, she handled that, that really well. And she does have a sort of strong personal story with the, the job she does, which I think really helped her case because it's so memorable. She's a plumber and a plasterer and

Adam Fleming (19:52)

she said in her speech, didn't she, that she's already going to be letting people down because people who'd booked her for, for plumbing in the next few weeks, she's going to have to say, thanks, but no thanks, because she's going to go to Westminster.

Joe Pike (20:00)

And on the point of I said, why are you training as a plasterer as well? Surely you get enough work as a plumber. And she was like, look, I want to upskill. I want to have as many different skills so I can help my clients as much as possible. And I mean, God, Parliament has its own problems with plumbing and plaster.

Adam Fleming (20:16)

There's a hundred billion pound maintenance contract up for grass.

Joe Pike (20:19)

She's gonna be busy also.

Adam Fleming (20:21)

I mean, MPs are allowed second jobs, aren't they? So there's nothing stopping her carrying on as a plumber and plasterer.

Joe Pike (20:25)

Absolutely.

Adam Fleming (20:26)

All I would say, though, just as like warning to Hannah, if she's watching this, she's got four greyhounds. Being an mp, especially for a seat that's sort of a two and a half hour train journey away from Manchester, is not great if you've got a lot of pat responsibilities.

Joe Pike (20:40)

They don't need that much walking, do they?

Adam Fleming (20:43)

They need to walk for about 12 miles a day.

Joe Pike (20:47)

Yeah.

Adam Fleming (20:47)

Chris? Yeah. What, what about the Greens at Westminster, then? So their ranks were what, four? They're now five, so they've increased by 25%. But just give us a flavor about how the, the Greens get covered at Westminster and what impact they make in the House of Commons.

Chris Mason (21:07)

Well, I mean, bluntly, they don't get a wild amount of coverage, partly because of their numbers. And I think that might change a bit as a result of this. The thing that really intrigues me about the Green Party is that for so long, certainly at a Westminster level, they had just one MP in, Caroline Lucas. They struggled as a small party to be able to, in the first past the post system, manage a sufficient concentration of support in individual constituencies to win in many places. And then they had that big breakthrough of nearly two years ago, getting to four MPs. But what was fascinating about the four seats in which they won was that two, broadly, I'm painting with a broad brush here, but two were broadly urban, broadly left leaning, and the other two were broadly rural and broadly, traditionally at least small C, and often big C, Conservative leaning. And they managed to win in those four seats that were demographically, geographically very different. Now, since then, they've gone through this change of leadership to Zach Polanskin and his brand, if you like, of green politics and then they secure a seat like this one, which has more in common with the seats in Bristol and and Brighton that they hold than the ones in Herefordshire and Suffolk, if I've got my geography right. And so you just wonder how they move on from here geographically, where they aim to focus demographically, cephalogically, and the extent to which they can hold on to seats that their brand of politics now might not match up to quite so well.

Adam Fleming (22:54)

And Luke, as a pollster, do you look at these results and think, oh, this reform bandwagon, which had been picking up speed all across the country and everyone's getting very excited. Has the bandwagon sort of slowed down a bit now or has it hit the buffers or none of those things?

Luke Trill (23:08)

Well, look, I mean, this was a seat where, if you look at the combined left vote at the last election, when you had with the Greens, Labour, the Workers Party, lib demons, it was around 80%. You know, this wasn't actually that fertile territory for reform. I think they sort of hope to come through the middle of labor and the Greens, but I think there might be a lesson for them because when we were speaking to voters in focus group, particularly voters on left, I think, you know, from talking to them, there was a big chunk of voters who might have sat this by election out, who might have said, you know what, I'm so cross with the Labour Party, actually, I'm just not gonna vote. The fact that Matt Goodwin was so polarizing that some of his past comments were seen by some res residents, particularly Muslim residents in the seat are so incendiary, meant that they were actually scared. They went out to vote against him more than anything else. And I wonder if Reform had selected someone more in the mold of Sarah Potchin, who won that runcorn by election, you wouldn't have had that big progressive turnout because that's, remember, that's the other thing about this by election. You know, turnout was on a par with what it was at the general election. That's pretty unusual. And a big part of that was progressives desperate to stop reform.

Adam Fleming (24:22)

Chris, I see you're just in the middle of typing a message, so I'm just going to rudely interrupt you. Will Nigel Farage be feeling a little bit disappointed this morning? I mean, Nigel Farage doesn't really do disappointment, does he?

Chris Mason (24:34)

No, he doesn't. And he's already leapt on this sidebar conversation, if you like, around this by election, which is the suggestion from some election observer that was published as the polls closed at 10 o' clock last night that there had been a greater frequency of instances of what's known as family voting yesterday here than has been seen at other by elections. This is the suggestion that people are accompanied into the polling station and it might not be as secret a ballot as it should be. In other words, that there is conferring that goes on about how people choose to vote, and that has been leapt on in particular by Reform talking about sectarian politics, as they put it. I should also say that Anna Turney, the chair of the Labour Party, was pretty concerned about this. If in time there is a sense of the evidence of this. She expressed real concern speaking on Newsnight last night. I mean, I think as far as Reform is concerned, and this seat, as Luke was reflecting there, it not necessarily particularly fertile territory for them, but again, it brings us back to that sense of sentiment and momentum. And, you know, for a fair old while, there was lots of wind in the sail of Reform uk, they seem to be winning sort of here, there and everywhere and dominating the opinion polls as they still are. We've now had a couple of by elections. The race for the Senate seat, the Welsh Parliament seat in Caerphilly last October, and then this seat here where there was plenty of talk, including from Reform themselves, about how competitive they were and how significant their prospects were of potentially winning, and then in the end them falling comfortably, comfortably short. So, you know, I wonder if we're heading into that sort of phase two, if you like, of this Parliament where, you know, Reform are not sweeping everything beside them and winning everywhere. But again, as Luke was reflecting, how fascinating that you have between them, the Greens and Reform scooping up such a sizable proportion of the vote in a similar way to the way that Plied and Reform did in that result in Caerphilly. That's sort of smorgasbord of competitiveness in British politics right now.

Adam Fleming (26:53)

And Joe, just that point that Chris was making about the observations of how the actual voting unfolded in the polling stations, just tell us a little bit more about that. And for example, I mean, the idea of election observers, we're quite used to that happening in elections abroad, where maybe there's concerns about the electoral system or it's a former dictatorship, but less so, kind of in Greater Manchester.

Joe Pike (27:17)

Yeah, I mean, Democracy Volunteers, the group that put out this statement after polls closed, have been observing UK elections for a decade, spotting different things that they think might be wrong, including actually a lot of people. And this does happen a lot, even though it's not allowed, taking photos of themselves wanting to put it on social media. They are taking part in the democratic process. But the stats from this group are sort of significant. They talk about observing what they describe as family voting in 68% of polling stations, affecting 12% of of the voters, even though the council, of course the returning officer have made say there was

Adam Fleming (27:55)

no evidence of that. Joe, I'm just going to shush you up there for a second because I've got to say goodbye to viewers of newscast on the BBC News channel. So thank you very much for tuning into this live episode of newscast and enjoy the rest of the day's news because there's plenty of other stories happening around the world for you to tune into as well. And we're going to continue on lots of other platforms, although apparently we're not on MySpace or Bebo. So that is some disappointment about our multi platform strategy this morning. Anyway, Joe, sorry I rudely interrupted you for viewers on the news channel, but

Joe Pike (28:24)

you can carry on now the response from the council from the acting returning officer was, well, actually we've not had any reports of this. Why are you telling us now after polls have closed? Why didn't you flag this to us during polling hours and we could have actually done something about it. The implication, the interpretation of some, including some in Reform uk, is that these were examples of Muslim men effectively telling their partners or family members how to vote. Now that is absolutely not what this Democracy Volunteers group have said, but because

Adam Fleming (29:03)

they use the phrase family voting to just mean one person talking to another

Joe Pike (29:06)

person, at least two people conferring, directing, colluding is another word it's been used. They've not talked about any particular examples, but some, including some Reform UK have interpreted it in that way and we should be clear that conferring, colluding, directing somebody in a polling booth is absolutely not allowed.

Adam Fleming (29:31)

And Chris, but this is another example of reports from this campaign of elections being fought in a way that some people think are maybe not traditional or maybe some people have used the word sectarian. For example, the Green Party putting out leaflets in other languages like Urdu, which the Green Party say is a totally fine way of communicating with voters in their own terms. But some of the other political parties have said, oh, that's not normally how elections are fought here in the uk.

Chris Mason (30:01)

Yeah, and that is part of the conversation and has been part of the conversation around this by election and I think we'll be part of it in the kind of wash up after, after this by election, both here, Westminster and elsewhere and then in the Countdown to The elections coming up in May, the local elections in England, the devolved elections in Scotland and Wales, that word sectarian is being used by Reform and others. And then that wider argument that has been raised by some commentators, particularly on the right, of a fear that if you are in a space where how people vote can be determined to a significant degree by ethnicity or religion, for some, that's not a comfortable place for British politics to be. I think there's a more subtle argument about whether you communicate election literature purely in English or in other languages. I mean, ultimately, politics is a popularity contest, isn't it? And you have to win hearts and minds. And if parties conclude that the way to do that is to do it in languages other than English, then it seems to me there's always going to be an incentive for them to do it. I guess there's a wider argument, isn't there, that some will make around, as some see it, parallel lives, parallel communities, the stickiness, if you like, of some to not speak, you know, learn English, for instance. There's definitely sort of wider cultural arguments that I think will swirl, possibly as a result of some of the spin offs of the kind of arguments we've heard from some in this contest.

Adam Fleming (31:43)

Right, last couple of minutes and I just want us to focus at the end of our conversation on what this means for Keir Starmer and what might happen next for Labour. Chris, just give us some pointers of things you will be looking out for today, indicators about where this is going to go for Starmer.

Chris Mason (32:00)

Yeah, good question. So the big question for me is, psychologically, does Labour, having looked absolutely over the precipice of kicking out Keir Starmer a couple of weeks ago, mean that they are reluctant to walk back to that precipice straight away? My hunch is, had they not walked to the precipice a fortnight ago, this result might have walked them to exactly that point, given where they were a fortnight ago. And look, they collectively looked over that precipice and decided they didn't fancy it, or at least they didn't fancy it yet. Why? Because they couldn't collectively agree who they would rather have instead. But I think as big a factor on top of that was not really fancying the prospect of a leadership race whilst they were in government because of all of the grief, frankly, they would get for doing that. And also the very thing they'd accuse the Conservatives of doing repeatedly when they were in government, they would have then been doing themselves. So psychologically, where do they get to I mean, I've had plenty of whatsapps from some who are mighty cheesed off within the Parliamentary Labour Party. It is fair to say, broadly, they are the same people who were mightily cheesed off a couple of weeks ago. And we're at the more cheesed off end of the spectrum. Be very interesting to see the language adopted by Heidi Alexander, the Transport Secretary, who's on the morning round right now. She's about to be on breakfast over on BBC1. And then how others in time during the day reflect, do they go nuclear quickly or does it fester again, particularly in the coming weeks and months? And that countdown to the elections in May, let's see. But this is just the kind of results to set Labour off in a very nervous, jittery direction again.

Adam Fleming (33:44)

And not to be overly dramatic, Chris, in our final 20 seconds, but I mean, Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, could come out and absolutely destroy Keir Starmer today in one one post on social media or one clip on the news.

Chris Mason (33:57)

And he has a public event later because the Brits are happening here in Manchester this weekend and he is the Mayor of of Greater Manchester. So you would expect him to be doing something in connection to that? I'm told he is. And will he pass comment on the by election? We shall watch with interest.

Adam Fleming (34:14)

Okay, Chris, thank you very much for staying up nearly all night for us and bringing us all that great analysis. Catch up with you soon.

Chris Mason (34:20)

Talk to you soon. Cheers.

Adam Fleming (34:22)

Joe, I can see you frantically scrolling through your messages. Any from irate Labour MPs? Let me guess.

Joe Pike (34:26)

Yes, one sec. One, who I would describe as a sort of centrist Starmer critic said, dreadful result, but nothing happens if the Cabinet don't move. Another MP who has been on the doors in Gorton, Denton a lot said Gaza was a big issue, in particular in the west of the Patch, in places like Long Site and Levant Hume. They were our voters, this person says. But if you were to ask what more the UK government could do, they would be flummoxed, I certainly think.

Adam Fleming (34:57)

If you are sorry, what does that bit mean?

Joe Pike (34:59)

That.

Adam Fleming (35:01)

That this is all very local and very sort of unique circumstances. It was. This wasn't about freezing railfares or breakfast clubs or finances.

Joe Pike (35:09)

Well, they think Gaza was a big issue and there was an underlying anger and frustration about what happened and maybe the UK government's inaction.

Adam Fleming (35:16)

Oh, I see.

Joe Pike (35:17)

But as to what the UK government could do now, people didn't have much of an idea and of course Keir Starmel would argue, look, we have done something unprecedented and recognized a Palestinian state at the un. I would say, though, if you are a Labour MP in the West Midlands, in West Yorkshire, in East London, you could see this sort of result translating equally, as I'm sure you'd argue. Luke. Yes. On in the west of the patch, there are places that the Greens would do well at, but there are other parts of Greater Manchester where reform could pick up votes.

Luke Trill (35:52)

Yeah, I mean, well, absolutely. And if you look at the other MPs representing Thames side areas, Angela Rayner, one of them, Johnny Reynolds, the chief whip, you know, other cabinet ministers or leadership potential contenders at risk from reform. And again, this is why this result will really have put the sort of jeepers up so many Labour MPs, because what it essentially says is because this seat was sort of a microcosm of Labour's coalition in one seat, the fact that they have done so badly essentially says to any Labour MP across the country, you know, you're not safe now. You know, you're Emily Thornbury in Islington south, you suddenly go prime Minister himself in Camden, you know, is he safe? You know, so it really does suggest that Labour are facing a war on all fronts. And there'll be lots of MPs who, and obviously we know MPs, care first and foremost about their own patch, will be really worried by it.

Joe Pike (36:48)

There are a lot of Green people who do recognize and admit to the advantage in this seat in that it wasn't just that they had voters who like what they were asking them to back, but also they had the sort of bogeyman for their voters in reform, something that they could campaign against. And I don't know what you think, Luke, but are there that many seats with Green voters where you could argue a vote for us is a vote to stop reform? I don't know. Certainly, though they are able now to argue, to sort of shatter the argument that a vote for the Greens is a wasted vote. Reform are now over that that hurdle plied clearly over that hurdle after Caerphilly. And now the Greens can say, yeah, what Labour claim is that we're a wasted vote. But look what we've done here and look what we can do in your constituency, in your hometown, too.

Adam Fleming (37:42)

But then I can imagine a lot of that changing if, say, next week Rachel Reeves said we're going to change the student loans repayments, and that would make a lot of younger voters, who are the people who are apparently flocking to the Greens, that could change Labour's fortunes with them quite quickly.

Luke Trill (38:00)

And yet one of the challenges, I think, and it's interesting on Gaza because again, when we spoke to Muslim voters in the sea, they said it's all too little, too late. And I just wonder if you will get a similar thing with the student loans because, you know, it's not like they can just get rid of student debt entirely unless they've got some massive rabbit there. And I think, you know, I think one of the reasons why the Greens might do better in a lot of other seats is because again, speaking to Vertis there, it wasn't just the policy issues, it was a sense that, and we heard this very clearly, that since 2024, since the riots in 2024, that things like racism had basically become legitimized again, that the sort of progress we'd made on challenging these taboos had been undone. And there was a real personal anger at the Prime Minister from both Muslim voters, but also some of the students, some of the graduates in the Gorton half of the seat, that the Prime Minister hadn't done more to stand up to it. And they held him sort of personally accountable for that, which, whether that's fair or unfair, I think is a bigger challenge for the Prime Minister across the country.

Adam Fleming (39:09)

Oh, very, very interesting. Luke, thank you very much for joining us this morning.

Luke Trill (39:13)

Thank you.

Adam Fleming (39:13)

And Joe, thanks for your analysis too.

Joe Pike (39:15)

Thanks, Adam.

Adam Fleming (39:16)

And that is all for this episode of Newscast. The current plan is that Laura and Paddy will be with you for their regular Saturday episode of Newscast. But with British politics being so, and I'm going to use a terrible cliche now, febrile, who knows when the next episode of Newscast will be heading your way. But thanks for listening to this one.

Luke Trill (39:33)

Bye bye.

Podcast Narrator (39:34)

Newscast News from the BBC. From one newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know and don't forget, you can email us anytime@newscastbc.co.uk or if you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on 033-01-239480.

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