Electioncast: The Mega May Run In

Summary

Podcast Summary: Newscast — "Electioncast: The Mega May Run In" (May 3, 2026)

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Episode Overview

This episode of Newscast dives into the fast-approaching Mega May elections across England, Wales, and Scotland. The panel — BBC political journalists Laura Kuenssberg, Paddy O’Connell, and Joe Pike — analyse the high stakes, party strategies, shifting political landscapes, and what local and devolved elections mean for voters. The tone is energetic and conversational, blending political analysis, behind-the-scenes insights, and lighter moments. The broader theme centres on how these elections will dramatically shape both the local and national trajectory of UK politics.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Mega May Elections: Scope and Stakes

• Preparation & Excitement: Laura shares her "election flippers" — handmade constituency and council notes — highlighting the scale and complexity of upcoming votes (00:22–01:53).
  • "We’re doing all our election homework because the elections are nearly here." – Laura (01:45)
• Scale of Participation: Over 20 million people are eligible to vote, with 16-year-olds enfranchised in Wales and Scotland (03:09). Despite this, youth registration is low in Wales — less than 50% for 16-year-olds.

2. How Parties Are Feeling and Campaigning

• Labour:
  • Nervous, worried, and restless, bracing for potentially heavy losses (04:19).
  • Possible chaos if losses lead to internal moves against Keir Starmer.
  • "Nervous, worried, restless, possibly anticipating a real kicking. And then potentially this time next week absolute chaos if people have the bottle to try and get rid of Keir Starmer." – Laura (04:19)
• Conservatives:
  • Also nervous; noting Kemi Badenoch’s leadership stability but facing challenges even in traditional heartlands (04:39–06:11).
  • "Conversations on the doorstep aren’t as bad as they were last year, but they don’t expect that to be showing up in any sort of…we can put our faith back in the Conservatives once again." – Laura (05:13)
• Lib Dems:
  • Seen as flatlining but locally focused, playing the long game ("tortoise not hare") targeting winnable areas. Notable for their strategy of concentrating on 'Gail’s Bakery' demographic voters and possibly set to become the biggest party in English local government (06:11–08:37).
  • "Ed Davey is a tortoise... what they’re doing is this very, very localized campaigning." – Laura (07:43)
• Reform:
  • Had soared in polls but have "gone flat," though still expecting significant seat gains, especially in Wales and potentially a surprise second in Scotland (13:14–14:39).
  • Scrutinized for a £5 million donation from a crypto billionaire; leader Nigel Farage skipped a planned interview for campaign events (14:39–15:50).
  • "But the fizz has gone flat... now they’ve stabilized in the sort of 25 kind of high 20s." – Laura (13:44)
  • "The damage Reform UK is preparing to inflict on Labour in the so-called red wall areas has simply never been done before." – Joe on Farage's messaging (15:27)
• SNP:
  • Leader confidently predicts a majority, which is unusual due to Scotland’s proportional system (17:31–18:30).
  • Achieving a majority seen as key for another Scottish independence referendum.
• Plaid Cymru, Wales:
  • Main contest with Reform; could form a progressive majority with support from Labour, Lib Dems, and Greens (23:02–24:25).
  • "A bit more trepidation... there’s a few nerves around the edges about whether or not Reform will actually pip them." – Laura (24:07)
• Greens:
  • Moving from traditional environmental focus to leftist, "eco-populist" party under Zach Polanski (26:15 onwards).
  • Recent controversies, including Polanski’s criticism of police acts, have increased scrutiny.
  • Looking to make gains especially in central London. Concerns about whether recent enthusiasm will convert into actual seats (28:58–30:39).
  • "It’s quite an interesting thing because they’re basically a vibes party. The vibes have become a bit more testy..." – Laura (30:18)

3. The Meaning of Local and Devolved Elections

• National vs. Local Narratives:
  • Panellists discuss how Westminster-centric coverage risks missing the real, local issues these elections decide: bins, schools, homelessness, local services (08:42–09:55).
  • "Why can't it be about the issues that my council runs in England…?" – Paddy (08:42)
  • "It's about real decisions... that will affect how people's lives are." – Laura (09:55)
• Turnout Concerns:
  • Low turnout predicted (24:25). Mobilizing loyal voters will be crucial, particularly with "squeeze" messages targeting tactical voters.

4. Political Dynamics, Systems, and Outcomes

• Multi-Party Britain:
  • Discussion of whether the UK is truly entering a new era of multi-party politics or if old two-block dynamics may reassert themselves (30:39–32:06).
  • "There is an argument that politics is basically now about two big blocks… and there are lots of different parties fighting each other in that." – Laura (31:21)
• Party ‘Ceiling’ Broken:
  • Both Reform and the Greens have managed to prove to some voters that a vote for them isn't “wasted,” which could challenge established parties further (32:06–33:48).

5. Notable Stories & Light Moments

• Remoter Voter:
  • Listeners write in about the most far-flung or unusual voting locations — e.g., Mount Pleasant in the Falklands, or early voting in Kent (34:41–36:33).
  • "On the basis of the distance of time, I consider myself a temporarily remote voter." – Listener Keith (35:31)
• Anecdotes & Bins:
  • Joe’s tale of rifling through stairwell bins for election leaflets in Edinburgh (21:08–25:18).
  • "What was fascinating was the sort of the squeeze messages, the tactical voting messages on all of these leaflets." – Joe (21:28)
• Whisky & International Diplomacy:
  • Gifting and lifting of whisky tariffs during a Trump-King state visit; banter about Scotland featuring in US-UK exchanges (37:12–38:50).

6. Final Reflections: Electoral Psychology

• Impact on Labour:
  • The emotional impact of election losses may galvanize internal rebellions—even if the threat is currently hypothetical (39:58–41:09).
  • "Knowing that you might get a kicking in the polls is one thing, feeling that you have is quite another." – Laura (39:58)
• The Ground Game:
  • Loss of councillors reduces a local MP’s activist base and could foreshadow struggles in future elections (41:09–42:00).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Journalism is about looking out the window and saying what you can see." — Laura (01:59)
• "Ed Davey is a tortoise. Might he dress up as a tortoise? I don't know. Don't give him any ideas..." — Laura (07:43)
• "The fizz has gone flat...now they've stabilised..." — Laura on Reform's momentum (13:44)
• "There's no law that says they have to come and do things. But it is unusual..." — Laura on Nigel Farage skipping the interview (15:50)
• "If the SNP falls short… there might be a situation where there's a Unionist majority in Holyrood." — Laura (19:35)
• "It’s quite an interesting thing because they’re basically a vibes party. The vibes have become a bit more testy..." — Laura (30:18)
• "Knowing that you might get a kicking in the polls is one thing, feeling that you have is quite another." — Laura (39:58)
• "Can I just say… we will really feel these election results, won’t we? That's the point." — Paddy (39:42)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:22–01:53: Laura’s “election flippers,” scale/preparation for Mega May elections
• 03:09–04:19: Voting eligibility and youth turnout
• 04:19–06:47: Party states: Labour, Tories, Lib Dems
• 06:53–08:37: Lib Dems’ “Gail’s Bakery” strategy and local focus
• 09:16–09:55: The meaning of local elections (bins, homelessness, schools)
• 12:39–15:50: Reform's fluctuating fortunes; Farage donation, skipping BBC interview
• 17:31–18:50: SNP majorities and second independence referendum
• 21:08–22:24: Joe’s bin anecdote — tactical voting seen in Edinburgh
• 26:15–30:39: Greens’ transformation and current scrutiny
• 30:39–32:06: Multi-party politics — is it here to stay?
• 32:06–33:48: "Wasted vote" barrier broken for Reform/Greens
• 34:41–36:33: Remoter Voter emails; voting from the Falklands and early voting trials
• 37:12–38:50: Whisky tariffs, gifts during Trump-King visit
• 39:58–42:00: The psychology of election defeats for Labour and the loss of local activist infrastructure

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Flow and Tone

The episode balances serious, data-driven political analysis with candid, sometimes humorous interactions between the hosts. They remain focused on the underlying significance of the elections while never letting go of the more human (and sometimes quirky) elements of campaign season. There’s a continual effort to ground Westminster talk in voters’ everyday experiences and concerns, keeping the podcast accessible and engaging.

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In Summary

This episode of Newscast delivers a thorough, insightful preview of the UK's impending "Mega May" elections, detailing party strategies, predictions, and internal tensions — while keeping the conversation approachable and sometimes delightfully irreverent. Listeners walk away not only prepared for the intricacies of this election cycle but also reminded of the very real, everyday issues at stake beyond the headlines.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

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[A]

Laura is clutching some books that look like old photo albums.

[B]

They are old photo albums from the 1990s. We have to find them on ebay.

[A]

What's in them?

[B]

Do you really want to know?

[A]

You look like you just raided the stationary cupboard at school.

[B]

I was so excited. So these are my election flippers, right? And I have an amazing producer who very, very, very kindly compiles all these for me so I can look like I know what I'm talking about on Thursday and Friday night. Inside are all my notes about all the different constituencies and councils in the country.

[A]

So what's, what's the color coding? There's two blue, two red.

[B]

So, because the elections are mega maze, we've been saying for months, which marvelously other people calling it, there are going to be a set of elections which will have the results coming in on Thursday night from English councils. This is the English council flipper, right? And you'll see it's not completely chock full because it's the smallest number of results. This is good, this, isn't it? Then we've got the Friday English results. Absolutely chock a block. Friday English councils coming up. Thousands and thousands of seats up for grabs. This is also for Friday. This is all the Welsh names which you've got to get good at saying. And young pike has arrived. Do come in. And you can also see my flippers. I don't show everyone my flippers. And then these are all the Scottish constituencies which will also be on Friday. So I'm very excited and this is a very laborious way of saying that we're doing all our election homework because the elections are nearly here.

[A]

Yes. So look, this is meant to be the introduction to the podcast. Joe, you're not here yet. We're just saying. I'll keep quiet, though.

[B]

Journalism is about looking out the window and saying what you can see.

[A]

So we're getting underway by saying, welcome to this Sunday newscast. Law's got some political thing. Joe pike will talk to us about the Sunday shows and we'll get underway with the newscast edition of Sunday.

[C]

Newscast.

[B]

Newscast. From the BBC. Humanity's next great voyage begins.

[D]

We are in the midst of a rupture.

[B]

Nostalgia will not bring back the old order.

[C]

Six, seven.

[A]

Yeah, it's supposed to be me as a doctor.

[B]

Daddy has. Has also a Special quotation. Ooh la la.

[A]

Thinking about it like a panto helped. Do we play music now or what do we do? Hello, it's Paddy in the studio and

[B]

it's Laura in the studio and I want to just say that the wonderful production team through the Glass are already laughing at us and it's only we're not even two minutes in.

[C]

And it's also Joe pike in the studio. Hi, guys.

[A]

Nice for you to join us.

[C]

A pleasure as ever.

[A]

What are we talking about today?

[B]

Well, I think we're talking about one thing, which is the huge political unfolding, complicated picture in front of our eyes with enormous elections coming on 3 Thursday, which of course will be. The outcomes will be the product of millions of people's decisions across the country. Do you know that more than 20 million people have got the chance to have a vote?

[A]

I did not, actually. And some 16 year olds, yes, 16

[B]

year olds in Wales and Scotland, although the rate of registration I was told last week in Wales for 16 year olds has been less than 50%. So all that kind of excitement that there might have been about young people voting doesn't seem to be translating necessarily into a rush to vote.

[A]

How are the parties feeling?

[C]

I think it depends which party you're talking about, Paddy. I think the real art, or maybe it's a science in political campaigning is being able to land your message or frame the race in your perfect way in those final days. So people are going into the polling booth ringing in their ears, your message. Now, it is very difficult. Some are doing it with a sort of classic political change message. Some are doing it by focusing on policy local or national or I suppose, international. Is this sort of debate on your show today, Laura? Some, of course, would have been very focused on what message was in people's minds when postal votes landed so 10 days to two weeks ago. But I suppose different parties are feeling very differently about their chances.

[B]

Should we just quickly then whiz through them? Because we had six of them in the studio this morning. Um, but in terms of the parties, okay, Labor, I would say nervous, worried, restless, possibly anticipating a real kicking. And then potentially this time next week, absolute chaos. If people have the bottle to try and get rid of Keir Starmer. Tories, Joe.

[C]

I think they are also nervous that they could see some challenges in places that have previously been their heartlands. And yet there is an optimism that Cami Badenoch's leadership seems stronger than it was perhaps six months ago, partly because the most prominent of her challengers is no longer in her Party, Robert Jenrick.

[A]

But also the. The question that's discussed here often with the general journalist like me and the specialist like you is Westminster bounce. She's got the mo. Has.

[B]

Yeah. In Westminster.

[A]

Does that, does that go to the doors?

[B]

No, not if the polls are correct, which is still at this stage, a big if. So if you talk to people who've been around the country for the Tories, they say that the conversations on the doorstep aren't as bad, aren't as bad as they were last year, but they don't expect that to be showing up in any sort of Ahara. We can put our faith back in the Conservatives once again and the English counties will turn true blue, that we are still in a situation where it looks like the Tories are going to be going backwards in this election. And you know, there might come a point where actually you might want to ask, well, hang on a minute. The Westminster Tories kidding themselves because people around the country maybe feel less vitriolic towards them, but they're not actually moving their votes across yet. Anyway, we will see, as Joe says, no question about it, Kemi Badenoch's leadership is, is secure unless something really weird happens. And this time last year people might have said, oh well, if there's another set of difficult local elections, she might be shown the door. We're not in that circumstance now.

[A]

Liberal Democrat.

[C]

Well, as Sir John Curtis said on Laura's show, they seem to be flatlining. They are seen historically as good local campaigners and therefore we have seen them focusing on their south of England and a south western heartland, you could call it that. Often seats and areas that have been conservative in the past, often wealthier parts of the country. But in Scotland and Wales they certainly face challenges, partly because it's such a sort of multi party stramash.

[A]

They like to. The critics and their foes like to portray them as the Gail's Party, don't they? Gail's Bakery.

[B]

Well, it was a strategy. I mean it was a strategy that Liberal Democrats were quite happy to talk about privately at the general election. Where Gail's Bakeries, if you're not a fan or a, or even not a fan, but if you've never heard of them, Gail's Bakery is a chain of very delicious, very expensive, quite fancy bakeries. And where Gail's open in town centers, Lib Dems went, ah, right, we'll have a bit of that because it matched the sort of demographic of the kinds of voters who they would be able to go after. And I think that's really, it's a, it's a, it's a light hearted, but a example of what the Lib Dem strategy has been since their terrible general election of 2019. If you go, I was talking to a Lib Dem strategist about this week. Go back to that. Joe Swinson was going around the leader at the time saying, I can be the Prime Minister. And then the country went, no, you really, really can't. They.

[C]

They said, ex.

[B]

She lost her seat. And they were trying then to run a sort of big, giant, national, big style campaign. After that they went, oh, right, that's not really going to work for us. And since then, they've run what the strategist was saying to me. Basically, it's tortoise and hair. So Ed Davey is a tortoise. Might he dress up as a tortoise? I don't know. Don't give him any ideas, said a Lib Dem on our program this morning. What they're doing is this very, very localized campaigning. They look very carefully, very deliberately at where they think they might win, try and pile in on the council, build up in that way and then hope to get mps in that area. So they're playing a different game to the other political parties, which we should bear in mind when we look at their numbers, their numbers of councillors. Get this. They might end up. Did I say this yesterday?

[A]

No.

[B]

Being the biggest party in English local government this time next week.

[A]

Right. So that's because I was going to say we still must talk about reform. Plied, smp.

[B]

Oh, we're only just getting started.

[A]

But I just wanted to say that in the coverage that I've heard, it's almost like the chattering classes have forgotten that this is kind of about education in Scotland, health in Wales. It's about my bins, it's about homelessness on the streets where I live. It's about me voting for the people who deliver the services closest to my front door. And we keep talking about K Star is K Star is in trouble. And actually we. Why can't it be about the issues that my council run in England and all the devolved powers of Scotland? Do you think we've forgotten the whole point of these elections?

[B]

I think it's about both. I think that what happens is our wonderful colleagues in the Westminster press pack, of which I'm still just about a proud member. Obviously, we tend to see things through the lens of the national leader because that is also what MPs are really talking about. Look, Keir Starmer's in deep trouble. Many MPs see this might be the moment to be shoved out. It would be completely wrong, therefore, if we said, no, no, we will only talk about your bins. However, it is well worth making the point. This is not just about whether or not Keir Starmer is going to get his P45. It's about real decisions being made by councillors, being made by members of the Scottish Government, the Welsh Senate, decisions that will affect how people's lives are.

[C]

And Keir Starmer himself, in today's observer, has this piece. Where he is, is focusing on policy, talking about defence spending, talking about a closer economic relationship with the eu. A very, very interestingly placed article in a newspaper read by, I imagine, a lot of Labour MPs and Labour members, seemingly. If you're trying to read between the lines in that piece, saying it's not worth the risk of internal wrangling, let's keep focusing on the end goal.

[B]

Keep.

[C]

Keep your eyes on the goal. And he's not saying it, but he's implying, you know, stick with me, let's see what's in the King's Speech and let's carry on a bit.

[A]

Yeah, it's unusual to mention the King's Speech. I feel it's a very good film. Yeah. And the King did do a good speech.

[B]

The King did do a very good speech, which is still absolutely ramping up. Lots of press commentary and coverage, you know, some days after it. But the King's Speech, for the uninitiated, is also when the government stands up and says through the voice of the monarch, these are the plans and the new laws that they want to pass during the next session of government. And one of the things that Keir Starmer's apparatch did a few months ago, and which they decided quite some time ago, which was quite cunning, is they put a date in notionally for the King's Speech, which was only a few days after they expected kicking at the elections. Therefore it was one of the tactics that might make it harder for people to organize plots against him, because they say, oh, but just a couple of days later, you're going to get all these fancy goods, might that, you know, get mps just to hold off.

[C]

And it allows KE Starma Laura, in this article today to say, this government will reshape our nation over the coming weeks through the King's Speech and beyond. We will set out our agenda of radical reform with activist, interventionist government building a stronger, fairer country, muscular liberalism. He's basically sort of ramping up I think the significance is no time for changing. We need a strong, competent leader. But of course, there are people within his own party who are not sure that that is him.

[B]

Well, that's the problem. And if the results suggest that the country is very firmly of the view that he is not a strong or competent leader, then for how long, say some people in the Labour Party, do they ignore that?

[A]

Right.

[B]

That's the point here. Where is the evidence that Keir Starmer is able to turn things around? Flip side, where's the evidence that anyone else would be able to do a better job and be popular? We don't know the answers to either of those questions, but many labor mps look at the evidence and think, is is there proof that Kirstama can turn this around? Huh? Don't know. And I think those are going to be the big questions looming over everything next weekend. You should go to the other parties, though, too.

[A]

Yes, we must. Yes. So let's turn to reform. So I wonder if it's fair to say that if you were looking at this podcast six months ago, you'd have said Reform are a sore away in the polls. They're amazing. Disruptor status secured. They're the biggest party in the polls. And then somehow it looks like they've lost a little bit of that patina as the disruptor. I mean, I'm not saying they're not going to perform reform. I'm just going to rhyme throughout the whole podcast. What kind of momentum are they seeing?

[B]

The way I sort of described it the other day, which I think is fair, is that they are, you know, they are enjoying an incredible period of success. They have been ahead in the polls for many, many, many months. You would absolutely expect them to be gaining at least a thousand seats in England next week, maybe as many as 2000. At top end of expectation. You would not be surprised if they ended up being the biggest party in Wales. They're vying with Plaid. Kim referred the top spot. They it would not be surprising if they were second in Scotland, too.

[A]

Really?

[B]

Ahead of Labor. That wouldn't be surprising either. They're fighting for their. You know, the reform source said to me this week, when you say, what are you looking at privately? What's your expectation? They said four figures and one or two and two. In other words, at least a thousand seats in England and then either first or second place in both Wales and Scotland. But to your point, Paddy, I think they've been incredibly successful, but the fizz has gone flat. So they've basically stabilized in the polls. So from time to time in the last year, they've been hitting 30% with a big distance between them and labor and the Tories and everyone else. Now they've stabilized in the sort of 25 kind of high 20s. So the gap between them and the other parties is narrower than it was. Which means when you talk to labor strategists, they say, well, actually midterm, look at the gap between us and reform. That's not insurmountable. That's not the kind of, oh my God, they're a clear 10 ahead of everyone else.

[C]

I suppose the personal project and success of Nigel Farage in From Nowhere, coming to first place and sustaining it for 13 months is, is significant. But it has brought with it scrutiny, including just this week, questions over this gift, this 5 million pound gift from a crypto billionaire, Christopher Harborne, that none of us knew about until this week. Now, Mr. Farage makes it clear that that was an unconditional gift before he'd even considered running for parliament. And really it was about his security. But there are some of these issues that pose a bit of a challenge to reform. Certainly in the Mail on Sunday today, there's a big piece from Mr. Farage on page seven. He is framing this election in the final days, talking about that sort of campaigning strategy as being vote for us to get rid of Keir Starmer. And he seems to be very optimistic, saying, let's be clear, the damage Reform UK is preparing to inflict on Labour in the so called red wall areas of this election has simply never been done before. So there's a real optimism in the reform camp. And yet they didn't turn up at 9 o' clock this morning to talk to you.

[B]

Correct. So Nigel Farage was, in case people are wondering, Nigel Farage had been arranged and confirmed to come on the program this morning during the election campaign. We've been talking to the party leaders over a period of weeks and then we were told that he had changed his mind and he's going campaigning in Essex instead, which of course all politicians are. You know, there's no expectation, there's no law that says they have to come and do things. But it is unusual. I think it's fair to say it's unusual that at the last minute that a major politician would change their mind about doing an interview. And as you say, there has been a big story this week, Joe, about 5 million quid coming from a very wealthy donor, which Nigel Farage is accused of breaking the rules by not declaring it's worth Noting that he did actually declare other gifts during that same period. When they're saying, oh, well, he wasn't an MP then and he didn't have to do it, he did declare some other things during that same period.

[A]

He denies any wrongdoing. But the voters will think, if I was given £5 million, I might remember. That's kind of how this is a sniff test. I mean, and we haven't got time to go on about reform endlessly, but nonetheless, the prediction of second in Scotland is still massive. Oh, yeah.

[B]

I mean, undoubtedly, and there's a. I think we said it last week, but that there's been a real kind of reckoning in Scotland among the political class in Scotland, who for years thought, oh, there's no space for Nigel Farage's brand of English politics here, that Euroscepticism and then his sort of brand of what they would accuse him of being, an English nationalist. He said, there's no. No place for that in Scotland. Reform stands to do well, very well, potentially from a base of, you know, kind of more or less zero.

[A]

Joe pike wrote a book about Scottish.

[B]

He did.

[A]

So I won't parley with. On with him on this. Let's talk about the SN mp, then. They. The leader predicted we will win, which is, you know, we. We felt was quite early. Early out of the.

[B]

Yeah. Not just that they would win, but they would actually get a majority. Because newscasters are a smart bunch, don't need to be reminded that it's hard to get majorities in the devolved Parliament.

[A]

Well, let's just talk about that. Why is that?

[C]

Because it's a proportional system and it was designed for different parties to come together and form governments. Yet 2011 was. Is the sort of significant historical point where Salmond was first minister. There was an S and P majority that led to the Edinburgh Agreement, which led to the Scottish independence referendum. So the significance now in Scottish politics, and especially in the snp, over getting a majority, is they argue this would mean they have a mandate for a second independence referendum, something which the UK government would like to stop.

[B]

And if they don't get a majority, then they won't make that argument, you see. So that's why the majority is not just important, because it tells you about how popular the parties are and the SNP would be able to govern on their own without having to get other parties on board. But it also is the determinant of whether or not there's another kind of tussle between Westminster and Holyrood, whether or not There should be another referendum.

[A]

Can I insert a Scottish splaining into two.

[B]

Excellent. Just don't do the accent.

[A]

No, I won't do the accent. No, not. No.

[B]

Obviously all the accents in Scotland are the same as well. Yes.

[C]

At least spent a good portion of your life in Scotland.

[A]

Yes.

[C]

We shouldn't discount that.

[A]

But here's. I'm going to say a thing and you're going to rate it.

[B]

Okay?

[A]

A vote for Reform.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Is a vote for the Union.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

If they are the second party.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Then it's. It once again puts this issue into a marginal issue again. And it was 55. 45 it was when they, when the referendum was held. So if reforms second, you could make the case in Westminster that even though you don't like them, you could say that's clearly there are still plenty of Unionist voters in Scotland.

[B]

And if you listen carefully, I'll try and explain this because there might be an absolute head spinner and this is an outside possibility. I'm not suggesting this is going to happen, but there is an outside chance where there might be a situation where there's a Unionist majority in Holyrood. So if the SNP falls short of John Swinney's very confident prediction that they would get an outright majority, it's not impossible that the combined seats of labor, of the Lib Dems, of the Tories and of Reform add up to a Unionist majority in the Scottish Parliament. What on earth happens in that situation? Does Annasawa think, well, hang on a minute. I could have a crack here at being first minister and actually lead the country, but labor have said that they wouldn't touch reform with a barge poll. So all sorts of really interesting dilemmas might be thrown up in this contest. It's not impossible there could be a Unionist majority in Hollywood. Most of the polling suggests the SNP are going to be the biggest party by far. But being the biggest party does not automatically give you a majority in Hollywood. I think there's an outside chance of that. But if you talk to people in Scottish labor, and I'm sure, Joe, you've had conversations people or labor mps in Scotland or Scottish labor this week, there's a kind of our internal data isn't as bad as the polls are. Maybe there's an outside chance that we might end up with more, you know, more lead in our pencil than we thought.

[C]

I bumped into a prominent S and P figure the other day just on the street rather randomly, who made a sort of similar point. This person said, yes, but for the S and P and better for Labour than the polls are suggesting. I was in Edinburgh last weekend as well, and I was. This sounds strange. I was rifling through the bin of the stairwell of the place I was staying at, the friend's house I was staying at.

[A]

It does sound strange, actually, because it's

[C]

full of sort of takeaway leaflets, but also, of course, this time of year, election leaflets, all those. And what was fascinating was the sort of the squeeze messages, the tactical voting messages on all of these leaflets. One of them saying, this seat, which I mentioned, the name of this seat is a toss up between the Greens and Labour. And another party was saying, I think the S and P saying, this is a toss up between the SNP and the Conservatives. Now, actually, same seat. The same seat. The same bin as Haddock spinning.

[A]

Same bin, yeah.

[C]

And I think that gives you an idea of. I mean, there are, of course, constituencies which could be four way, five way battles, but you have two votes, you have your constituency and your list vote. In Scotland, there are so many parties that a hunt system is a sort of confusing formula. That's the proportional system. And therefore it could, as Laura said, enter some unexpected results.

[B]

And they've changed it again this year. They've changed it. So it's different. So it is a. It's always been a proportional system, but they've changed how it works this time. And that renders the polling much. That potentially renders the polling much less reliable.

[A]

It's the Dehant variable. That's what we're really saying. This is what podcasts are invented for. Oh, my God. Talking about the dahon cast. So Greens applied.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

So let's go plied.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

So I spoke to a Welsh veteran.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Who said currently it's Labor. Plied. Yes, it could go plied. Labor.

[B]

Yes.

[C]

In terms of the mix.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Oh, in terms of the government. Yeah, yeah, possibly. So the. So, so what's happened? This race, or the race for the one and two spot is between applied and reform. If Plaid are the biggest party, but are they incredibly unlikely to have a majority? So either the most likely scenarios are Plaid's the biggest party, but they get a bit of help from labor, the Lib Dems and the Greens so that Renup yours can become first minister, or this is scenario, who reforms the biggest party and then it's not quite clear what would happen. So the Tories have said they'd work with reform if they gave them some of what they wanted. Like they want to cut to income tax in Wales, as does Reform, you can see they might possibly work together. There's. But it does look like Plyde will have a majority with Lib Dems, labor and the Greens. So what you might call, if you're that way inclined, it's very likely to be a progressive majority in Wales. But if reform has more seats by some distance than plied, then you get into potentially quite a complicated argument about legitimacy and supplied. At the moment, are feeling pretty bouncy, but I think a bit more trepidation, a bit more trepiditious than a couple of weeks ago. I think Plaid thought they were very much on course for to be the biggest party very clearly. But now you can sense there's a few nerves around the edges about whether or not reform will actually pip them.

[A]

And this is where I introduce turnout, because all the boffins I speak to, like Joe pike, predict low turnout in these elections. Joe Pike?

[C]

Yeah. I mean, that is very possible. And that means that the sort of get out the vote operation will be central. So if parties understand where their most loyal voters are and can get them out of the houses to a polling station, that could potentially make a big difference in the final result. And for parties whose voters may be skeptical or may be tempted to stay at home because they are, you know, demotivated or fed up, that operation could be quite central. And that's often where the squeeze message comes in, which is, you know, if you are scared of Paddy and his party, well, you better get out.

[A]

I'm scared of that. I'm scared of that already.

[C]

The only way to stop Paddy is Laura. You've got to come out and vote for Laura. You know what I mean?

[A]

But that.

[C]

That's often the message that you hear from parties and newscasters will have in leaflets through the letter boxes. Yeah.

[A]

I mean, also in another podcast world, we talk about you rifling through bins for the whole half hour. What else do you find in that out there?

[C]

Well, it was just. It was just takeaway leaflets and. And election.

[A]

Yeah. No, no, don't be shy.

[C]

I mean, I wanted to see them. I think it's fascinating.

[B]

Yeah, Niche.

[A]

Niche.

[C]

I put them in my bag and pilfered them.

[A]

Niche is cool. That's what people like. They like people with strange hobbies. So now we do Greens. So the thing about the Greens is that a few years ago, they were windmills and moccasins and basically speaking, they were quite well behaved and they didn't really want to trouble you very much. Had a couple of MPs here, one peer There and now Zach is the leftist populist that's kind of everyone, except

[B]

including, well, Nikols himself. He says he's an eco populist.

[A]

Eco populist. And he's outflanking the left wing of the Labour Party in the way that reform is outflanking the right wing of the Conservative Party. But just heading into the election, he's had this unusual storm, which we've addressed here, where it's very unusual for the police to call out the politicians. It happens about once every three years, I think. And this business of what he reposted on social media, which, again, I go back to what I said earlier. Is this about health in Scotland? Is this about the schooling of my child in Wales? Is this about the homeless problem I've got in my street in ex council? Or is it about my hopes for better bin collections? No, it's about a post. A repost on social media.

[B]

Yeah. Because Zach Polanski's judgment was brought into question. So he re shared the post that was criticizing the way in which the police apprehended the suspect who had been trying to stab Jewish people in Golda's Green. And Zach Polanski, by resharing that put himself in a place where, as a public political figure, he was questioning the police just at the moment when they had been trying to stop a serious attack on Jewish life becoming much worse. So his credibility was then attacked and he'd made the police very upset, which is why Sir Mark Rowley made a very unusual step of criticizing him in a letter that he published. But it was interesting. This morning we asked that Polanski if he basically still thought the police had gone too far. And I'm paraphrasing, but, yeah, I mean, he basically said, yes, he does still think that they've got answers, questions to answer about how they handled it. But he did acknowledge that doing so online had not been the right place for him to make that case. But I think it's interesting. I think we're into kind of, you know, new Greens 2.0. Right. So new Greens 1.0 with Zach Polanski. It was all kind of, oh, super waste, surge in the polls, amazing funnel. Look, here he is raving around, having a great time, adding on members, having incredible success at a by election, piling on members by the tens of thousands. A couple of months, then into that, of course, what happens is journalists start looking more carefully at a party's record when somebody turns up, you know, newly. And there have been more questions asked about his, you know, old job as a hypnotist. There have been more questions asked about Green candidates, specifically posting really vile and offensive anti Semitic views online. Suzak Polanski is in a sort of. I, I think it's a different phase, you know, new Greens 2.0, whereas that Polanski is facing scrutiny, which he. Of the kind that he wasn't a while ago.

[A]

What do we say upside for these elections? What. Where. What do we say? But seats now? Seats then?

[C]

Well, I think in terms of English local government, you're looking at what have previously been Labour sort of strongholds in central London. They could do well in some of those seats.

[B]

Yeah, they might even take some of those councils. So they might take Hackney council, for example. They've also been working hard in Lewisham, Southark, Newham. They've been working hard in. And maybe in total, some of the projections would say sort of 500 seats or so, and perhaps a bit north of that would be decent for the Greens. But I think inside the party, though, they're also actually nerves, because how do they translate this massive surge of excitement, particularly online, around them as a party? How do they translate that into bums on seats? It might not happen. And how do they actually sort of manage their own internal expectation? And you got to think also about how people consume their news and information now. If you're someone who's a kind of new convert to the Green Party and you get most of your news off this, this thing, and you see a lot of it on social media. So what you're seeing on social media is all these amazing videos of Zach Polanski and Hannah Spencer and it's all woo, woo, cheer, all amazing. And then actually they go, yes, so we've got 400 extra council seats after the election that you've been so excited about, that might the next day feel like a bit of a kind of clunk. And how do you then, as a national leader, maintain momentum around that? I mean, I'm going off into the realms of, you know, party management, but it's quite, it's quite an interesting thing because they're basically a vibes party. The vibes have become a bit more testy for various reasons in the last few weeks since Polanski first, you know, sprung onto the stage. If the council results sort of feel like they fell a bit short, what are the vibes feel like then?

[A]

So it's multi party Britain. Did John Curtis buy into that? Because he famously. John is the sort of barometer. Every time someone says, we've entered the new multi party world.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

John adds everything up and reminds you that actually we've all. We've. We've had multi party in Scotland since before the English started waking up.

[B]

Yeah. But also we've had English party before and then it snaps back. So that's the question is there's multi party but it's never forever. So I always kind of roll my eyes a bit. He was, ah, we are definitely into the, into the era of multi party politics. A as if it's something new. Well, no, there was a coalition for five years between 2010 and 2015. The SAP have been in charge for donkeys in Scotland. Wales has had coalitions and you know, go back to the 80s with the SNP and then the, the SDP and then the Alliance. So yes, we are absolutely at the moment in a world where there are multiple political parties vying for your attention. There is an argument that we've talked about before that politics is basically now about two big blocks, the sort of progressive block and the block on the right. And there are lots of different parties fighting each other in that some people believe and would argue that means we're going heading into a general election where you might have four parties or even five parties all knocking around sort of 15, 20. It is also perfectly possible that things will have snapped back to the big red team and the big blue team and we just do not have the answer to those questions.

[C]

There's one more thing I'd add Paddy, to what Laura's just said is that what reforms seem to have done and what the Greens you could argue have done with the Gorton by election too is get past the concern of some voters that voting for them might be a wasted vote. There's no point voting for one of these parties because it won't actually change the course of the election. Certainly the Greens have proof in Gorton and may add to further proof in these elections and certainly reform have proof from various previous contests that actually if you vote for them it can make a difference. And that is a real problem for some of the more traditional established parties.

[B]

Yeah, it's a really good point because they've passed that hurdle now.

[C]

Yeah, it's a better way of putting

[B]

it past the hurdle, bolted over a hurdle or whatever. And it used to be, oh well, it's no point voting for you. And if reform ends up somehow in, in government in Wales, if they were in power for the first time in a national administration, that would be a huge moment and they're likely to take Control of more councils. You know, remember this time last year how huge it felt that reform and won control of some town halls for the first time. The established parties all hoped, oh, well, now they're running things, they'll find it really hard, so people will think that they're dreadful. That hasn't happened.

[A]

It has a bit, hasn't it? There's been. There's been some embarrassments.

[B]

Oh, there have been embarrassments.

[A]

We put up the council tax.

[B]

But the sort of established parties, I remember during the many hours of election coverage, they were all sort of saying, oh, well, they'll see how they like it now. They'll see how hard it is and they'll have scrutiny and voters will decide that they're terrible. Yes, there have been challenges and things have gone wrong and they have had to put council tax up, but there hasn't been this sort of, oh, terrible fall away dramatically in their support.

[C]

Collapse.

[B]

No, there hasn't been a collapse.

[A]

We're going to get. There's just me to move everything on. Not because he's not interested, but he wants to get to newscasters who are actually the point of the whole thing.

[B]

Correct. Have we done all the parties? We haven't mentioned Restore uk, which are huge online, founded by a disgruntled mpa, Rupert Lowe, who used to be in reform. They're only running in a tiny handful of places, including Great Yarmouth, which is his seat. But there might just be a tiny little interesting thing there. I just. Just put a note down. It's. I'm not saying it's a big deal and they're obviously not in any way, shape or form competing in this in nationally, but just as a little sidebar. Good point, Paddy.

[A]

Time for a gimmick Remoter Voter.

[B]

So in case you had forgotten. How could you have forgotten? Remoter Voter is when we encourage newscasters to write in and tell us how to far flung their destination is from where they are either filling in their postal votes or maybe you're casting a ballot in the somewhere very, very, very remote and far away. Maybe you're in John o'. Groats. Maybe you are up a hill in a tiny, remote place in a beautiful part of England and your ballot station is a shepherd's bothy. Who knows? Anyway, I'm getting lost in my own flights of fancy, I thought. Yeah, I think I was. Briefly.

[A]

There's a script for this program and it says Laura to read. Oh, I know, but.

[B]

But we had to tell people, remind people what it was. You can't just say now, remote voter.

[A]

I feel more confused now.

[C]

That shepherd's body sounds tempting.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Can we just. You. It may have a bin. Laura, to read.

[B]

Okay, Keith has emailed in. Hello, Keith, you want to be the remoter voter? I'm looking to subvert your usual remoter voter entries by asking you to consider not just geographic distance, but also temporal distance. I just voted at 9 o'clock on Saturday at my polling station in Cranbrook in Kent. We are one of the areas that are trialing early voting on the weekend before the Thursday of the main vote. So on the basis of the distance of time, I consider myself a temporarily remote voter.

[A]

Great. Fascinating. Thank you, Keith.

[B]

Doctor who, isn't it?

[D]

Right.

[A]

This is an email about Sue Francis's son in the Falklands. Hello, my name is Sue. I'm a fan of the podcast since Brexit cast. Laura, I think I found a remoter voter for you. My son, who will be voting in the upcoming Senate election in Wales, is currently serving in the military in the Falkland Islands and will cast his vote by proxy from there. Please could you give a shout out to all the serving personnel in the Mount Pleasant complex who are doing a great job in this beautiful remote part of the world. Many thanks for keeping us all so well informed in these turbulent times. It really makes such a difference.

[B]

That's a very nice email. Hello to Sue's son and anybody listening to newscasts in the Falklands. But I hope HMS Dragon wasn't bringing their postal votes back. Yeah,

[D]

New surprises every day. Cash Avalanche Casino Slot combines energetic gameplay with daily events and exciting challenges. Whether you play casually or enjoy friendly competition, there's always something happening. Download Cash Avalanche Casino slot on the App Store and claim your bonus.

[B]

Now, Paddy, you very cleverly last week said that there would be gifts between the King and Donald Trump and you said that Scotland would come up.

[A]

Yes, and this is one of the occasions when I was right.

[B]

Hooray.

[A]

And this is compared to all the occasions when I was wrong. And also Catgate, which we can't go into again, so you just did.

[B]

I'm ashamed of your preference for dogs.

[A]

It's okay, don't bring it up again.

[B]

Oh, I just did. You did.

[A]

Look, these tariffs on whisky were lifted.

[C]

Yeah. Very significant for that key Scottish industry and a sort of battle between various politicians over who should claim credit.

[A]

We're claiming credit because we predicted on this podcast there'd be Scotland would feature in the. In the visit. That's what we said.

[B]

We did. But John Swinney is sort of claiming that actually it was his persuasion of Donald Trump led him to raise the tariffs. And the King. I mean, was it the King or

[C]

was it whoever the Trade Minister?

[A]

You have to take the wins when you think how criticized the BBC is. And then, lo and behold, we predicted Scotland would feature in the visit and then the tariffs are lifted.

[B]

So, Paddy McConnell.

[A]

It's not me. This. This past. Whiskey car.

[C]

Well, many congratulations, I'm sure will be.

[A]

Cask. Whiskey cask. Yeah, News cask.

[B]

Yes, me. If I was dreaming a few minutes ago, I think you've now got completely bananas. Anyway, so, yes, that was a big story out of the visit and people said thank you very much to the King. I would just observe that it's quite a strange thing if in the era of 2026, that you've got one man in his 70s, very powerful, able to persuade another man in his 70s, he's very, very powerful, that they just had a little chat. And here's a present to an industry that affects thousands of people on hundreds of millions of pounds. It's an unusual way of doing business,

[A]

if I'm allowed to say other gifts. A framed replica of the 1879 design plans for the Resolute desk, as discussed on Newscaster.

[B]

And the Resolute desk is what it's

[A]

a traditionally the desk in the Oval Office, although I think it's currently been moved. A bell was given by the King from the World War II submarine namesake, HMS Trump.

[B]

Now, I was interested in that. I wondered why it was called HMS Trump. Was it because it was a sign? Anyway, I was going to. I know it was an old submarine, but why was it called HMS Trump back in the day? President Trump, however, gave King Charles a custom replica of A letter from 1785 from President John Adams to diplomat John Jay detailing Adam's historic meeting with King George III at St. James's Palace. And Adam's historic meeting was not Adam Fleming's historic meeting, although Adam Fleming did discuss it on newscast last week.

[A]

So we've reached the end of newscast and I. Can I just say that one thing you said to me earlier struck a note, which is you said you used the word feel. And I'm guessing we. These are. We will really feel these election results, won't we? That's the point.

[B]

I think that's right. And I think, particularly for the Labour Party, knowing that you might get a kicking in the polls is one thing, feeling that you have is quite another. And if you are a Labour MP who doesn't know whether or not it's the right thing or the wrong thing to be part of a move against Keir Starmer. If on Thursday night and Friday afternoon, your phone is filling up with messages from colleagues, activists that you've worked with for years, people who you've walked along pavements with with clipboards in the rain, trying to persuade them to come out and vote for labor, if all you're seeing on your phone and in your conversations, people saying, this is absolutely horrendous, Bob's lost, Jane's lost, so and so's lost all of if your political world suddenly becomes absolutely full of people going, this is unbearable. We can't go on like this. That is a very different sentiment to this time seven days before, where they're going, oh, God, it's all very difficult, isn't it? But, oh, who knows? We've got no certainty about whether or not anybody would be any better than Kier. And the psychology is very important in politics as well as the raw numbers.

[C]

And another part of that psychology, Laura, I'd argue, is that these councillors, if you're talking about the English local government, are not just people who decide on issues about recycling and potholes. They are also the sort of key level of effectively paid campaigners in the campaigning infrastructure for an mp. And if you have lots of councillors in your constituency because they are engaged, because they have a small salary and they're part of the decisions in the area, they are more likely to be out there keeping you in your job. And there will be MPs of different parties who lose counsellors on Friday morning or on Saturday for whom that maybe is a sign of things to come and a sign of how challenging future elections could be.

[A]

Right, just a reminder that tomorrow we have a special edition of Newscast recorded at Castfest before a live audience with Chris and Adam looking back at Brexitcast. This is definitely the end. We'll put those predictions to the test in seven days time. We say thank you very much indeed for listening.

[B]

Goodbye.

[C]

Goodbye.

[D]

Goodbye.

[B]

Newscast Newscast from the BBC.

[D]

Thank you so much for making it to the end of Newscast. You clearly copyright Chris Mason Ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Don't forget, you can email us anytime. It's newscastbc.co.uk and if you would like to join our Discord community to talk about everything newscast related, there is a link in the description of this podcast and don't be scared. It it's super easy to click on it and then get set up or you can WhatsApp us on 033-01-239480 and I promise you we read and listen to every single message. Thanks for listening to this podcast by.