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- [00:00]
BBC Announcer
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- [00:38]
Adam Fleming
Hello, this is your latest episode of Electioncast, our little miniseries where we are looking at the elections for English local authorities, the Scottish parliament and in this episode, the Welsh Senate. But before we do that, we have also marked the return of remoter voter where you explain why why you will not be able to vote in person on May 7th. My favorite ever newscast gimmick from history. Take it away. This week's remoter voter.
- [01:06]
Luke Trill
Hello, Adam and the team. My name is Eddie, I'm from Glasgow
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Alex Wickham
and unfortunately I will not be able
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Luke Trill
to vote in person at this election
- [01:13]
Alex Wickham
because I'll be on my honeymoon in Canada.
- [01:16]
Adam Fleming
Eddie and spouse, congratulations and proof that the universe can give with one hand a great marriage and and a wonderful honeymoon in an exciting country. But take with the other meaning that you will be missing in real time the elections in England, Scotland and Wales. But you know what, Eddie and spouse, you can rack up a whole load of episodes of election Cast to listen to on the flight. And here's one of them.
- [01:40]
Alex Wickham
Newscast, newscast from the BBC.
- [01:42]
Adam Fleming
Fat boy slim and me in the classroom doing our violin lessons. I was the tattletale in the class. Can I have an apology, please?
- [01:48]
Alex Wickham
I trust almost nobody that daddy has
- [01:50]
Luke Trill
to sometimes use strong language.
- [01:52]
Felicity Evans
Next time in Moscow I feel delulu with no salulu.
- [01:55]
Luke Trill
Take me down to Downing Street. Let's go have a tour.
- [01:59]
Felicity Evans
Blimey.
- [02:01]
Adam Fleming
Hello, it's Adam in the election cast studio.
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Alex Wickham
Hello, it's Alex in the makeshift home election cast studio.
- [02:07]
Felicity Evans
Hello, it's Felicity here in the Cardiff newsroom.
- [02:10]
Adam Fleming
And sitting with me is polster and director of More in Common, Luke Trill. Hello, Luke.
- [02:14]
Luke Trill
Hello.
- [02:15]
Adam Fleming
Now, Luke, on the last episode of Election Cast we talked about the basics of the different electoral systems in Scotland and Wales this year. The Senate is quite tricky to sort of make predictions and to look at the data and then join that up to potential results. Just explain why.
- [02:33]
Luke Trill
Well, because the new system has divided the cenneth into six member proportional constituencies and what that means is that particularly when it gets to the last seats in the senate. So the fifth and sixth seat, very small shares of the vote could mean the difference between one party, let's say Reform, winning the fifth or sixth seat, or Labour and the Greens winning it, and other parties just missing out getting in there as well. So very small changes in the vote, even though it's a proportional system, which is designed to even out some of those irregularities, actually can make a big
- [03:12]
Adam Fleming
difference and we'll get into the politics in a second. But this is very important stuff. And Felicity, does that electoral system and how it can be interpreted or how people can behave in different ways, is that a feature of the election campaign in Wales?
- [03:26]
Felicity Evans
It's interesting, Adam. I think it's an open question as to what extent voters in Wales actually realise that there is this new election system that they're going to have to try to get their heads around on polling day on May 7. A colleague of mine was actually on the train the other day and heard someone blaring out an explainer video of this new election system. So, you know, maybe that's the way to put it on the radar of ordinary voters, is to just go on public transport and very antisocially, just force them to learn about it. But other than that, obviously we here at BBC Wales and on walescast and our colleagues in other broadcast media here are trying to talk about it and explain it, but it is very complex because it's difficult to predict and also because some of the parties, particularly the parties that are doing really well in the polls, are trying to sell a kind of two horse race message. So, for example, Plyde Cymru, which is doing really well in the polls, is saying, vote Plyde to stop reform. And of course, if you remember, that happened under the old first past the post system in the Caerphilly by election last year, and Plaid Cymru won that seat. Reform didn't. So Plyde are really sort of trading on that. But of course, that's the old voting system. And reforms similarly, are saying, if you want to stop the independents, if you want to stop the pro independence party like Plaid, vote reform, the other parties, the smaller ones, and Labour, which is doing less well these days, as we talked about last week, is saying, no, no, no, that's not the way to talk about this. Your vote will count whoever you vote for. So it's really difficult to get consistent messaging on this for voters. And I think it's going to be a lot for voters to understand in the next few weeks.
- [05:08]
Adam Fleming
And Alex, that's a reminder that one of the last times the whole UK tuned into Welsh politics was for that Caerphilly by election. And that was a reminder, we just got there from Felicity, that you can't just take that as a. You can't just read across from this set of elections.
- [05:24]
Alex Wickham
No, you definitely can't. And I think it's probably fair to say that you should always urge caution in reading across from any by election to a national set of elections, because by elections, by their very nature, people can often vote in a different way or the campaigns can be run in a different way. Parties respond in a different way because there is just one single election in a moment in time, as opposed to when you're voting for a government. So you should never read across. But there is that added layer in that it is a different voting system. Having said, said that I think in terms of the sort of politics and the feel of the parties as they're heading into these really important set of elections, that Caerphilly by election was a really symbolic, important moment, because what it did was crystallise in real electoral terms when people had gone to the polls and had their say in a by election, what a lot of people had been assuming and talking about for some time. And that was just the jeopardy that Labour is potentially facing in Wales right now.
- [06:21]
Adam Fleming
We will talk about Labour in a second with Luke, because you've done a lot of polling at More in Common that can shed a light on just what might be going on there. But, Alex, just remind us the main players of the main parties in Wales.
- [06:33]
Alex Wickham
Yeah. So Labour have dominated in Welsh politics for forever. I don't think it's too much of an overstatement to say so. Ever since Devolution, Labour has come out as the biggest party in the senef, but even before that, Labour was the biggest party in Wales for over 100 years. So Labour has been the dominant force in Welsh politics for some time. In this election, it feels at this stage like things are really shifting. So two of the main challenges are exactly as Felicity said, to have Reform UK and Ply Cymru. Alongside that, you've got the Conservatives and there's a question about how well the Conservatives will do in this set of elections. Because, you know, actually in the last set of Senate elections, the Conservatives came second, so they too have a real presence in Wales. And then you've got the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. So. So there's a whole lot of choice out there in this set of elections. And I think what is really important about them and makes it, I mean, of Course, these elections are always important because it's about choosing who is going to govern Wales. But beyond that, this set of elections is attracting a lot of attention because it feels like that things are much less certain or can be assumed in a way that they have typically been in the past because of that Welsh Labour dominance for such a long period, which there is now a question mark hanging over.
- [07:45]
Adam Fleming
And, Felicity, remind us the name of all the party leaders in Wales.
- [07:49]
Felicity Evans
So we have Srinhap Yodwyth, who is the leader of Bly Cymru. We have Dan Thomas, who is the leader of Reform in Wales, Elined Morgan, which is a name that some viewers and listeners might know because she's currently the first minister. She is the Welsh Labour leader. Darren Miller is the Welsh Conservative leader. Then we have Jane Dodds, who is the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats. And we have Anthony Slaughter, who is the leader of the Wales Green Party. And as Alex says, they are the six main contenders for this election. Really?
- [08:24]
Adam Fleming
I always feel like we're playing a game of Cluedo there and you're just handing out the characters. No insinuations about any crimes implied there at all. So we're recording this episode on Thursday afternoon. On Thursday morning, Clyde Cymru launched their manifesto, which means we've got all of them apart from the Liberal Democrats. So we will reflect the Liberal Democrats on another episode. Felicity, rather than getting you to read out a whole load of pledge from five different political parties, are there some sort of big themes that emerge, some big dividing lines? Now that we've actually seen those manifestos
- [08:56]
Felicity Evans
in black and white, it's interesting the extent to which we're sort of seeing the parties split along right and left block lines. Actually, a lot of them are in agreement about what the big issues are that are facing Wales. And indeed, we had our first sort of audiences asking leaders questions eventually last night. And the topics that came up there are the ones really that we have been expecting would. So the state of the NHS in Wales is a really big issue. The cost of living is a really big issue. And those are the two which have really dominated the debate so far. So what we've been seeing from all of the parties are plans to try to tackle the length of waiting lists in the Welsh nhs, for example, and most of them are talking about putting more money into the NHS in order to do that, although not all of them. I mean, Dan Thomas of Reform has said that he doesn't think just putting more money in is the answer. And indeed, other parties, as well, have been talking about trying to improve the productivity of the nhs Plied, for example, this morning, talking about new surgical hubs. The Welsh consulting Conservatives have been doing that as well. But where you see them kind of diverging, really, is along cost of living lines. So, on Welsh rates of income tax, this is the first election in Wales where we're really seeing an offer on income tax becoming an issue. And arguably this is the first sort of real cost of living Seneff election, because the last One was in 2021. We were still in the pandemic, really, so the cost of living pressures hadn't really filtered in. But what we have is the Conservatives saying they will take a penny off the basic rate of income tax reform, saying they will take a penny off all the rates of income tax. So, you know, basic higher and additional. Then we have Welsh Labour saying that they will freeze the Welsh rate of income tax, in other words, that they won't increase it. The Greens aren't really talking about income tax as such, they're talking about reforming other sorts of tax, like council tax. The Liberal Democrats are talking about potentially putting a penny on income tax in order to pay more for social care and take pressure off the NHS that way. And I've forgotten somebody here, and I think I've mentioned the Liberal Democrats, I've mentioned the Greens, I've mentioned. Oh, Plyde Cymru. That's it. Whose manifesto came out this morning. So you would think that would be freshly baked in my head, wouldn't you? What Clyde is saying on income tax is actually that they want more powers to vary it in Scotland. Not only can they vary the rates of income tax within certain thresholds in a band, but they can also vary the bands themselves. So in Scotland, you have a lot more income tax bans than we do. Here in Wales, we have exactly the same as in England. Plyde is saying that isn't really suitable for Wales, where wages tend to be lower than in England. So they want the power actually to vary the bands as well, which they say would then give them more freedom to adopt a more appropriate policy for Wales. But this is really the first election where voters can choose between parties offering cuts, parties offering increases, parties guaranteeing no increases, and so on.
- [12:18]
Adam Fleming
And, Felicity, just to be clear, is it that the Welsh government has the power to control up to 10% of the. The tax rate on each band?
- [12:26]
Felicity Evans
10% in each band? That's right. And they've had that power for some years, Adam, but really it's never been exercised and hasn't really been an election issue up to this point. This time it certainly is and it's certainly one that's under discussion.
- [12:40]
Adam Fleming
And Luke, when you hear those various offers from the various parties, can you see them connecting their offers to certain demands made by certain groups of voters? Does that make sense?
- [12:51]
Luke Trill
I mean, yeah, I mean, absolutely. And you know, that notion of blocks that Felicity was talking about I think is really important because obviously the headline is looking like a battle between reform and plied for first place, but actually where most of the parties will get their votes from are within their blocs. So you've got Labour plied and the Greens basically playing for left voters. So it's no surprise that they're talking about different rates of tax, potentially higher rates of tax. And then on the right you've got reform and the Conservatives battling for the more economically conservative voters and playing off against one another there. And of course what reform wants to do is convince people, you know, the Welsh Conservatives are done. If you want a right leaning Welsh government, you've got to vote for us. Conservatives obviously want to say, look, no, we're still in the game. On the flip side, what Clyde will want to do is basically, even though it's a proportional system, try and mirror what happened in the Caerphilly by election and really put the squeeze on Labour and start to say, look, we are the ones that can stop reform emerging with the most seats. So yes, it's a battle between blocs, but perhaps most importantly a battle within those blocs.
- [14:04]
Adam Fleming
And Alex, what echoes and hints of national politics are you picking up?
- [14:09]
Alex Wickham
I guess there's a couple of things to say. I think it's interesting because as Felicity was talking about there with that first Leaders questions event that has been held, the issues that seem to keep cropping up and Luke will be able to speak to this more than I do, but the issues that seem to be cropping up across the board have huge echoes. It is about the cost of living, it is about the economy, it is about public services and notably the nhs and it is about immigration. And I think, you know, no matter where you are in the United Kingdom, if you get to vote in this set of elections, there are going to be kind of echoes of those issues because they seem to be the things that are the forefront of voters minds. But the other kind of interesting bit about this election in Wales is that there's also the sort of incumbency question as well. So when people are looking for answers to those issues that they care about, whether it's on the cost of living or whether it's on public services. The question is, are the parties able to make an argument about have they got the answers? And for Labour in Wales, for example, it is about the fact they've been in power in Wales for so long and now there is also a Labour government in Westminster. What does that do to the argument that they are then making to people about whether they've got the solutions to the problems that people are raising with them?
- [15:20]
Adam Fleming
And, Luke, the polling jargon for that, although I suppose it's actually jargon across all the politics, is double incumbency.
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Luke Trill
Yeah. And Labour are really suffering because of that double incumbency effect. Because if you look basically at elections in the UK since Brexit, they've been votes for change, Right. Brexit's a Vote for Change. 2019, Boris Johnson is a vote change we Talked about before. 2024. Vote for change. Now, if you ask voters in Wales, you know, do they want change or do they want to stick with the plan? 8 in 10 say that they want change. And when you're in power in Westminster and the zenith, if 8 in 10 want change, it's going to be very difficult for you to hold on. And that's what our polling is finding, is that Labour are really suffering from this incumbency effect. I mean, Alex is absolutely right, it is, you know, cost of living, NHS immigration, the same everywhere. And people are saying, look, these things aren't getting better fast enough. And unfortunately for Eleanor Morgan, you know, she is suffering as a result of that. That's why you're seeing Labour in third place in lots of these polls. I think there's another challenge, though, which I think is really interesting, that comes up from polling is not only that double incumbency effect, but that people are less likely to think that Welsh Labour is able to be sufficiently independent of from the Westminster government and actually less likely to be independent than Scottish Labour are, for instance. So what we find is, you know, in Scotland, it's about 4 in 10 say that they trust Anas Sawa to stand up to Keir Starmer. That drops to 27% when you're talking about Eleonid Morgan in Wales. So all of those factors kind of coming together. And I think, you know, if you are Welsh Labour, I think you could be understandably disgruntled, because actually, when you ask, you know, voters, who are you most angry, why have you left Labour? So Labour's holding onto only about 45% of its general election vote in Wales, and When we ask why, oh, it's lost half. It's lost over half.
- [17:21]
Adam Fleming
More than half.
- [17:22]
Luke Trill
More than half of the vote going in all sorts of directions, the biggest chunk going to ply. But when you ask those switchers, why are you switching? They tend to blame the Westminster government rather than the Welsh government for them making that switch, even though it's a Welsh government election. But it was ever thus.
- [17:40]
Adam Fleming
And, Felicity, it does seem to me that Eluna Morgan stays quite loyal to Keir Starmer. For example, she didn't join an asarwar in Scotland in calling for him to resign.
- [17:48]
Felicity Evans
She didn't. She's been treading a bit of a tightrope on this sort of thing, really, Adam, because during the general election campaign, one of the biggest arguments that Labour politicians, including Welsh Labour politicians, were putting to the electorate was, won't it be great if we're in power in Westminster and in power in Cardiff Bay because we'll be able to work together for the benefit of Wales? Now, there were a lot of us who kind of raised an eyebrow to that argument because it has been the case that for many years, while the Conservatives were empowering Westminster, westminsterminster Welsh Labour governments, successive Welsh Labour governments made a really good job of sort of pointing down the M4 and saying, well, all of these problems aren't really our fault. It's their fault for not giving us enough money or for not giving us the powers to do X, Y and Z or what have you. And it was easy for them to position themselves against the Westminster government. But of course, once the same party is in power in Westminster, that becomes very difficult. And of course, it's doubly difficult if you've made a big argument in the general election saying, hey, guys, isn't it going to be great if we can all govern together? Because you're all going to notice such great differences. So what we've seen is Elon Ed Morgan really trying to pick her battles with Keir Starmer. In some cases she's been critical, in other cases, she's tried to be more Team Labour, as it were, under the surface within Welsh Labour, there is undoubtedly tension between, you know, Welsh Labour politicians at Westminster level versus those at Cardiff Bay about, you know, where the problems for underperformance may lie, whether people are on the same page when they should be and all of that. But just to pick up on one other point there that Luke was making about people focusing on Westminster issues for. For this election, it is difficult, really, for all the parties on an issue like cost of Living, which is obviously a huge issue for so many people because so many of the levers to deal with cost of living, the benefit system is an obvious example, lie with politicians in Westminster, not politicians in Cardiff Bay. So, you know, what we are seeing with the manifestos that have been launched so far is the party's really trying to find other levers that they do have power over that they can offer to voters that they say will help to take the edges off. So we're seeing virtually all of them, except the Greens, actually making big promises to expand childcare because they're aware of how expensive childcare is for families with young children. Questions around council tax are featuring very heavily. We have some parties, the Welsh Conservatives Reform, saying that they will cap council tax. We have Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru saying they will make it fairer. And there is a revaluation planned in 2028 here in Wales, actually. And then we have the Greens saying they'll scrap it all together and introduce a land value tax. So the sorts of arguments that we're trying to see the parties position themselves in here on a UK wide issue like cost of living is very different, actually, to what you would likely see on this issue in a general election campaign.
- [21:03]
Adam Fleming
And Felicity, just to go back to the personality thing and the Pluto cards, I'm guessing that means the politics of that. There's very little Keir Starmer on the campaign trail, but maybe quite a lot. Nigel Farage and Zach Polanski.
- [21:16]
Felicity Evans
Yes. I mean, given Keir Starmer's popularity ratings or unpopularity ratings would perhaps be a better way to put it. And I know Luke can speak more to this than I can, but he's a bit of a ball and chain, really, around Illyn Ed Morgan's ankle in this election campaign. And he hasn't really featured very much at all in this campaign. There was just before the campaign started, he came to Cardiff for a big announcement on rail funding. There has been a lot of resentment here in Wales about a lack of consequential funding for the HS2 project that you're getting in England. Rail infrastructure is not devolved in Wales, it's devolved in Scotland and it's devolved in Northern Ireland. So they have had millions and in some cases billions of people, pounds worth of extra funding, consequential funding, as it's called, because of the amount of money that's been spent on HS2 in England. Wales has had none of that. Even though there's not a centimetre of HS2 track being laid here. And that has been something that has been a cause of great resentment and criticized by virtually all of the political parties at some point or another over the last decade. Now, what we had was Keir Starmer coming and making a big promise about rail funding over the next sort of 15 years or so. He said there would be £14 billion coming. Obviously that was interrogated by the other parties about, well, you know, that's a very long timescale and who knows how long Keir Starmer is going to be Prime Minister for. But really that was his only big intervention that we've seen over the last few months.
- [22:49]
Adam Fleming
And Luke, talk to how popular or unpopular UK party leaders are in Wales.
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Luke Trill
The truth is they're all fairly underwater when it comes.
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Adam Fleming
Oh, it's just all relative differences.
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Luke Trill
It is, it is. But Felicity is absolutely right. I think Ball and Chain is the right way to describe Keir Starmer. He is very unpopular in Wales, but so too, actually, I mean, Nigel Farage is actually underwater as well in Wales. He means less unpopular than Keir Starmer. Kemi Badenok as well. And actually, I mean, that's the pattern we see UK wide, actually, is that every party leader has more people disapproving than approving of their performance. So you can perhaps see why the Welsh parties have tried to keep it as a contest within Wales without bringing in those GB politicians who act as negatives for them. And I was just looking at some of our focus groups quotes because we've been spending quite a lot of time in Wales. In fact, I'm heading back to Merthyr tomorrow to chat to voters there. And I was looking at one quote which was like, I just really want more than anything else to give Labour a bloody nose in these elections. So you're really getting that sense, you know, voters wanting to use this election to send a message to Keir Starmer. I think the interesting thing is, how big is that message going to be, you know, because there's a world in which on some of the polling, you see Welsh Labour squeeze so much that they even struggle with some of those final seats and getting into the Senate. I should say our own polling is slightly more generous to them than that. But also, and I think, you know, this is a story which we perhaps should focus on more is just the growth of Plyde, but also the shift in Plyde. So one of the things that we have found in our polling is that Plyde's supporter base has shifted quite dramatically to the left. So when you looked at the average Plied voter. At the last set of Welsh elections, they were basically dead in the centre. They've now shifted to, we use a 10 point scale with zero being the most left wing to a three or a four. So it's not just that the party's grown, it's actually changed into a slightly different political party as well, which is quite a fascinating dynamic.
- [25:05]
Adam Fleming
And then that dynamic plays out at Westminster after the results. Alex. And I suppose the direction that Keir Starmer is pulled in depends on the performance of the left leaning parties of Scotland and Wales and the performance of reform in Wales, Scotland and England.
- [25:21]
Alex Wickham
Yeah, it's going to be the dilemma that has been talked about, analysed, discussed, debated within the Labour Party recently, really such a lot, which is how does the Labour Party respond to what is this now sort of dual threat from the left and the right? And that left and right threat takes slightly different iterations depending on where you are in the country. But in Wales, certainly it's broadly characterised, given where the polls are sitting at the moment, between plight and reform. And so, yeah, I think it is going to completely reignite that discussion and debate within the Labour Party. And while I think that there is a sort of, I mean, there is an awareness certainly, and there has been for some time within the Labour Party about what they're potentially facing in Wales and this kind of, you know, dent or collapse or whatever it might be in what has been such a dominant part of the United Kingdom for so long. I think people are aware that that could well be coming. But I still think there is going to be a question, to Luke's point, around the scale of that and what that tells the Labour Party or how that shapes the mood in the Labour Party come immediately after these elections. But it's worth remembering this isn't all just about the Labour Party. You know, there's a lot of stake for the other parties in this set of elections too, because, you know, Plyde, yes, has been sort of in some sort of arrangement with Labour and government in Wales in the past, whether it's something formal, more formal or less formal. But never before have Plyde been in a position where they might have be the First Minister in Wales. So then it becomes a question for Plaid about A, can you sustain the momentum that. That they appear to currently have? And then B, what do you do if you do end up in as First Minister in the Senate for Reform? There is a big question around momentum for them in this election. You know, again, can they sustain it? And challenges they face to something Felicity mentioned earlier about how some of the issues that are topping voter concerns aren't necessarily things that are in the power of Welsh politicians. So, for reform, the key example of that would be immigration, you know, which is not a devolved issue, but something that Reform typically likes to talk a lot about. How do they manage that in this set of elections? And then questions again. For example, the Conservatives, you know, as I say, they came second at the last set of Senate elections, and then in the general election, they lost every single one of their seats. So for the Conservatives, there's a question of relevance, for example, and how well they're going to do in these elections will lend a lot of questions about how relevant they still are in Wales. And then you've got the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. And the Greens, again, are trying to capitalise on what has been a sense of momentum. Can they translate that into some of their first seats in the Senate? And. And the Liberal Democrats, can they build on what in other parts of the country they like to think is that excellent ground. Ground game that they have? So, you know, there's inevitably a huge focus on Labour because of the dominance of Labour in Wales and because what it would mean for the party if they were to really lose that dominance in this set of elections. But I just think it's important that. Not to forget that for every single party standing here, there's an awful lot at stake and that's why this set of elections is being so fiercely fought and is so fascinating to watch.
- [28:20]
Adam Fleming
And look, you get the sort of the whiff from Labour that because these elections are happening at the time of an international crisis, maybe Starmer comes out of this better than he might have done otherwise, because he gets to fly off to the UAE and look statesmanlike at a time of crisis. Is that a sensible thing for Labour to be thinking about or is that a road to nowhere?
- [28:42]
Luke Trill
Well, look, I mean, there's no doubt that Starmer, you know, gets higher ratings for his international work than he does for his domestic work, but people ultimately vote on domestic issues. What we're finding in our polling, when it comes to, say, Keir Starmer's approval, is that, you know, the floor had totally fallen out after the Mandelson thing. You know, he was down at sort of minus 50 in our polling. He's now back up at minus 42 and has been there back up at minus 30, you know, and way behind the other leaders. So I think there might be a bit of what's known as copium going on in that which is the cross
- [29:17]
Adam Fleming
between coping and opium.
- [29:19]
Luke Trill
And opium, exactly. And so I think it's unlikely we'll give them that boost. And again, you know, if you look at the voting intention polls, there has not been this love actually bounce, to use more jargon, the sense that standing up to the US president, as Hugh Grant did in Love, actually would lead to a bounce for the Prime Minister. That doesn't seem to be translating. So, as I say, he's probably not right at his floor. He's got some people back. It probably, in terms of Westminster dynamics, means that the chatter about replacing him during a crisis is gone. But in terms of public opinion, I'm not seeing that sort of rally round the PM effect.
- [29:52]
Adam Fleming
Yeah, lots of different dynamics to think about.
- [29:54]
Felicity Evans
I think it's really difficult to know quite how bad this election will be for Labour, partly because of that point Luke was making earlier about the tiny margins on which those final seats in each constituency seem. Seats 5 and Seat 6 might be decided. So I think the party will be pinning a lot of hopes on those. But as in certain constituencies, perhaps will be the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. But the other thing to say about Labour is that when you speak to Welsh Labour politicians who are out pounding the pavements at the moment, a lot of them say to you, oh, I don't get the sense it's quite as bad as the polls are saying. You know, there are a lot of people who are undecided and a lot of those Labour politicians are pinning quite a lot of hope on that group of undecideds, if you like. What's not really clear to me anyway is whether that group is genuinely undecided or whether they're just being nice and being kind to the Labour politicians that they're speaking to, because a lot of the Labour campaigners you speak to are telling you a story that doesn't really reflect what the polling trend seems to be suggesting. And the other thing is that although this is a more proportional system, this is a really important point to bear in mind in terms of how the smaller parties, particularly the Liberal Democrats and the Welsh Conservatives, for whom this is looking like a very, very big uphill struggle, might fare, is that although it's more proportional than the previous system, it is not completely proportional. And you need to to hit a threshold of around about 12% of votes in each constituency to even start winning a seat. So when you are consistently polling less than that, you know, that is arguably a bit of an existential threat.
- [31:38]
Alex Wickham
And just one other thing to chuck in on this, on the way that this, I'm fascinated by this is how the new voting system will or won't impact on tactical voting. Because I think there's been a sort of consensus that we have seen a bit more tactical voting going on in recent sets of elections. And to a point that Felicity made earlier, lots of the parties are trying to pitch themselves as the alternative to. So for example, you know, it might be sort of plied saying we are the ones who can stop reform or reform saying that, you know, we are the ones that can take on ply or whatever it might be, but you're sort of getting parties trying to pitch themselves against another. And I just wonder that with this new voting system, whether or not it will be as clear to voters if they choose to vote tactically, how they do that.
- [32:24]
Adam Fleming
And also, Luke, just talk to me about the difference between people who answer the question in opinion polls and the people who then actually go to the polls and actually vote. Because there is a big difference here.
- [32:36]
Luke Trill
Well, there's a huge difference. And you know, particularly when it comes to low turnout elections of which the Senate usually. Of which the Senate usually is compared to general elections, our hardest job as pollsters is not working out who people are going to vote for, it's working out who turns out in the electorate. Because surprise, surprise, you know, people answering polls like to look virtuous. They tend to over exaggerate their likelihood of going out to vote. So that is one of the big variables and that probably explains some of the differences you're seeing between pollsters is we all have slightly different models for what the Electra will actually look like. But it's interesting to Felicity's point about Labour saying that they just don't recognize the polls on the doorstep. I remember exactly the same thing during the Gorton by election with Labour Party. Well, no, our vote looks like it's holding up pretty well. And if people are sometimes dishonest in polls, I think they're even more so on the doorstep because most Brits are fundamentally polite. They don't want to upset people there, or so they're thinking. So I wouldn't put too much stocking that, but I think it is, you know, and there is also, you know, again to Alex's point, the added complication of the new electoral system I don't think could be overstated. I suspect, you know, I may be wrong, but, you know, the average Welsh voter doesn't quite have in their mind how under the Dehont system, 6th and 7th place works. Which means they're going to be leaning on what the parties are saying about tactical voting. But again, as we saw in that Gorton by election, they're not always honest about that either. So a huge range of different complexities and, you know, it could be. I probably shouldn't say this, actually, it's probably bad for me to say it, but it could be the case that, you know, come May, the pollsters have egg on their faces because actually, we didn't correctly anticipate what this new system was going to do in terms of not just translating votes to seat, but voter behaviour as well.
- [34:27]
Adam Fleming
Felicity, thank you very much.
- [34:29]
Felicity Evans
Thank you, Adam, it's been a pleasure.
- [34:30]
Adam Fleming
Alex, good to catch up with you.
- [34:31]
Alex Wickham
Pleasure as ever.
- [34:32]
Adam Fleming
And Luke, thanks for coming into the studio.
- [34:34]
Luke Trill
Thanks for having me.
- [34:35]
Adam Fleming
And as you can tell, that was a very particular look at the election in Wales. So I think we'll probably turn our gaze to Scotland in the episode of Election Cast, which will come your way next week. The next thing you'll hear in your newscast feed is the weekend newscast, not with Laura and Paddy this week because they're still off for their Easter break. It'll be Nick and Vic Derbyshire and Watt, Newsnight's dynamic duo, taking over newscast for one weekend. And that's all for me. Speak to you again soon. Bye bye.
- [35:05]
Alex Wickham
Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.
- [35:08]
Chris Mason
From what, one newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know and don't forget, you can email us anytime@newscastbc.co.uk or if you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on +4403301239480. Be assured, I promise we listen to everyone.
- [35:53]
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