Iran War Q+A

Summary

Newscast – “Iran War Q & A”

Date: March 6, 2026
Host: Adam Fleming
Guests: Chris Mason, Jane Corbyn, Lyse Doucet

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Episode Overview

In this episode of Newscast, BBC’s Adam Fleming is joined by Chris Mason (BBC Political Editor), Jane Corbyn (veteran Middle East reporter), and Lyse Doucet (Chief International Correspondent) to answer listener questions about the fast-changing and complex crisis involving Iran, the US, Israel, and their neighbors. Drawing on their frontline reporting and conversations with global players, the panel unpacks the scale of the escalation, Washington’s strategy, the special UK-US relationship, the potential for regime change, regional stability, and the possible global repercussions—including for ordinary Britons. The tone is urgent, analytic, and at times wry, reflecting the unfolding uncertainty and high stakes.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Has Trump Underestimated Iran’s Response? What Does “Victory” Mean?

(Listener question by Chris, Waterlooville)
[04:49] – [09:42]

• Shifting US Goals:

  • Lyse Doucet notes that even President Trump himself appears to lack a consistent definition of “victory,” citing his evolving public statements:

    “It’s not even clear whether if President Trump was sitting here, whether he could give you an answer, because his answer has changed sometimes even from day to day.” – Lyse Doucet [04:49]

  • Trump has called for “regime change” and referenced scenarios like Venezuela, but also dialed down talk of regime change as the situation evolved.

• Regime Change Complexities:

  • Jane Corbyn points out regime change is improbable given the lack of widespread public uprising due to fears of bloodshed:

    “Americans realize that the people of Iran are not going to rise up and take to the streets with the risk of terrible bloodshed. That’s not going to happen.” – Jane Corbyn [07:12]

• Iran's Unexpectedly Broad Response:

  • Iran retaliated rapidly and extensively, with actions affecting 10 countries across the region.

    “This time, they fired back immediately. And in ever widening circles... far more attacks. So I think…the scale, the number of attacks and the longevity of them has really surprised the Americans and it’s certainly surprised the Gulf leaders as well.” – Jane Corbyn [09:04]

• Cultural and Strategic Misunderstanding:

  • The US misread Iran’s resolve, underestimating both nationalism and willingness to absorb pain:

    “You misunderstand the nationalism of the people of Iran and their defiance and readiness to fight back.” – Lyse Doucet [09:42]

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2. How Were Iran’s Neighbors and US Forces Caught Off Guard?

[10:30] – [11:24]

• Surprise & Vulnerability:

  • Jane Corbyn highlights inadequate protection of US personnel, e.g. the fatal strike on IT specialists in Kuwait who weren’t in hardened shelters.
  • Adam Fleming notes how even high-traffic civilian hubs like Dubai airport are now vulnerable, showing the wider impact of the escalating conflict.

• Symbolism and Media Impact:

  • Iran’s choice of targets is as much about headlines as military value, e.g., attacking Dubai, a symbol of regional prosperity, to “increase the price” of conflict.

    “So Dubai, which…was synonymous with stability…now suddenly…five star, six star hotels on fire, debris falling into swimming pools…” – Lyse Doucet [12:08]

• Fog of War:

  • Adam Fleming and Jane Corbyn clarify that sensational imagery (e.g., burning hotels) often results from intercepted missiles and drone debris rather than direct targeting:

    “There’s a lot of fog of war here…Often it’s by the Fairmont Hotel…a drone that was intercepted and debris came down…it was not actually hit by a missile.” – Jane Corbyn [12:33]

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3. UK’s Position and US-UK Relations in the Crisis

(Listener question by Jimmy)
[12:57] – [19:54]

• Keir Starmer’s “Calm-Headed” Leadership:

  • Chris Mason discusses the pressures on Starmer (including from Trump) to show strength:

    “Keir Starmer’s outlook…seize the agenda and look like he’s taking a grip of the UK response…” – Chris Mason [13:22]

  • Starmer publicly stresses his calmness, but the panel questions whether needing to say so betrays underlying insecurity.

• Tensions Over Diego Garcia Base:

  • Donald Trump expresses frustration over difficulties in using UK territories (e.g., Chagos Islands, Diego Garcia) as launchpads for military action:

    “This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with.” – Donald Trump [15:52]

  • Chris Mason explains the UK’s sovereignty handover to Mauritius but arrangement to lease back the base, and Trump’s conflation of different disputes.

• Special Relationship:

  • The panel notes public and private aspects of the US-UK alliance:

    “You don’t have to go that far back—Vietnam, Britain refusing to send troops. So…it’s a sort of public level... then the reality which is…broader understanding and cooperation on defense and intelligence.” – Jane Corbyn [19:54]

  • Intelligence and defense cooperation remains deep even when political relations are strained.

• Projecting "Strength":

  • Examples of “showing strength” include highly visible military deployments, such as US submarine action, French and UK naval moves, and public statements.

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4. How Does Iran’s Military Structure Impact Stability?

(Listener question by Simon, Aberdeenshire)
[24:55] – [26:46]

• Conventional Army vs. Revolutionary Guards:
  • Iran’s regular army is large (400,000), but the IRGC (125,000 + Basij militia) is elite, ideological, and deeply entwined in politics, economy, and the nuclear program:

    “The IRGC…controls the sort of sharp end of the defense system. The navy, the missile brigades, the whole nuclear program…It has the real strength.” – Jane Corbyn [25:41]

  • The IRGC operates in a decentralized way, sometimes making it harder for the regime to control responses, as illustrated by unintended escalation (e.g. a strike hitting Oman, a crucial regional mediator).

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5. Regional Isolation and the Risk of Chaos in Iran

[27:16] – [29:28]

• Shattered Rapprochement:

  • Iran’s attacks have eroded years of delicate detente with Gulf Arab neighbors; rebuilding trust may take decades.
  • Future negotiations will likely demand Iran addresses its ballistic missile arsenal.

• Risk of Fragmentation and Humanitarian Crisis:

  • The guests warn of rising risks of Iran fragmenting into “total chaos” or becoming a failed state, which could trigger terror threats or mass refugee flows:

    “The stakes are really, really high that Iran disintegrates in some way.” – Jane Corbyn [28:36]

  • National pride and desire for integrity run deep among Iranians; rumors of US/Israeli support for ethnic minorities (e.g. Kurds) stir anxiety about break-up.

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6. The Wider Consequences: From Energy Bills to Global Stability

[31:18] – [33:15]

• Ripple Effects:

  • Adam Fleming notes spikes in gas prices could soon lift the UK’s energy price cap, hitting consumers, underscoring how events in Iran ripple into daily life globally.

• Government Crisis Management:

  • Chris Mason describes access to the UK’s COBRA crisis room, offering a glimpse of how government wrestles with uncertainty:

    “You’ve got…geopolitical, the military…ongoing war…practical and consular things…And then…the economic and…practical consequences for millions…Just impossible questions to answer, aren’t they? But profound.” – Chris Mason [32:15]

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the volatility of Trump’s approach:

  “He might tomorrow call up and say how much he loves the king, loves the accent of Sir Keir Starmer. It just, you just don’t know…” – Lyse Doucet [22:35]

• On the potential for chaos:

  “God help all of us if it’s still going on, doesn’t bear thinking about.” – Lyse Doucet [31:13]

• On the legacy of Iraq for UK policy:

  “The efforts that were gone to…to ensure a UN Security Council resolution and the questions over the legality … Nobody is forgetting that.” – Jane Corbyn [23:56]

• Wry closure:

  “I came up with my own acronym…Current Assessment of the Situation Today.” – Adam Fleming [35:01]
  “News, or what we normally call news.” – Chris Mason [35:04]

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Useful Timestamps (MM:SS)

• [04:49] – What is Trump’s goal in Iran?
• [09:04] – Iran’s strategic retaliation: scale and surprise.
• [10:40] – Vulnerability of neighbors and US forces.
• [13:22] – Is Keir Starmer “playing a blinder” as PM?
• [15:52] – Trump’s Diego Garcia/UK frustration.
• [19:54] – Layers and realities of the US-UK “special relationship”.
• [24:55] – Structure and power of Iran’s regular army vs. IRGC.
• [27:25] – Post-attack regional isolation for Iran.
• [28:32] – Risk of Iran’s fragmentation and refugee crisis.
• [31:18] – Energy price cap and domestic effects in the UK.
• [32:15] – How the government handles crisis.

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Summary Takeaway

This episode offers a deep, candid look at a fast-unfolding Middle East crisis. The BBC panel navigates its diplomatic fog, tangled strategic interests, and the unpredictability of both leaders and public reactions. While much remains unclear, the experts agree on the gravity of the moment: the risk of further escalation, domestic and world-wide consequences, and the extent to which the conflict, while rooted in long-standing grievances, is subject to rapid and surprising change. The episode is invaluable for those seeking more than headlines—a clear-eyed snapshot of the situation as it stood at week one of a crisis that could shape the decade.

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For further listener questions or feedback, contact Newscast at [e-mail] or join the online community via their Discord link.

Transcript

[Adam Fleming]

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[Adam Fleming]

hello. Thank you so much for sending in all your questions about what on earth is going on in in Iran. All week I've been asking the BBC's best experts in the newscast family what they think is going on. But on this episode, it's going to be your questions that we're posing to them so we can really, really get to the bottom of this massive global story. And this is the episode of Newscast that we recorded on Thursday tea time and which was broadcast on BBC1 after question time, but is now in your podcast feed.

[Chris Mason]

Newscast, Newscast from the BBC. Fat Boy Slim and me in the classroom doing our violin lessons.

[Adam Fleming]

I was the tattletail in the class. Can I have apology, please?

[Donald Trump]

I trust almost nobody.

[Adam Fleming]

Then daddy has to sometimes use strong language.

[Jane Corbyn]

Next time in Moscow I feel Delulu with no Salulu.

[Advertisement Voice]

Take me down to Downing Street.

[Adam Fleming]

Let's go have a tour.

[Chris Mason]

Blimey.

[Adam Fleming]

Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio.

[Chris Mason]

And it's Chris in the newscast studio.

[Adam Fleming]

And we're joined by Jane Corbyn, who's in the middle of making a panorama about what's been happening in Iran. How's that going?

[Jane Corbyn]

We'll get there. We'll get there. Thank you, Adam.

[Adam Fleming]

And we were recording an episode of Newscast, the podcast, earlier on today. And you just come from interviewing a couple in Dubai, and in the middle of the interview, there was. There was an attack.

[Jane Corbyn]

Well, the alarms, the sirens, and I think both Abu Dhabi and Dubai had more missiles and drones incoming. And they were obviously really upset and quite panicky. They were trying to get to the airport, actually, they thought they're getting a flight out tonight. We'll see if they manage to leave in the next few hours.

[Adam Fleming]

And also here's chief international correspondent Lyse Doucet. Hello, Lisa.

[Lyse Doucet]

Hello. And because I have to say that Jane has a stellar history of always making it to her deadline on time, even feeding in documentaries live. Right. Remember people used to do that?

[Jane Corbyn]

Yeah. A and B rolls. So you're, you're feeding the A roll while you're editing the B roll.

[Adam Fleming]

This is when we did things on tape as opposed to just uploading things.

[Jane Corbyn]

Don't show. Don't show my age, please.

[Lyse Doucet]

Yes, please.

[Adam Fleming]

Right, we're going to focus this episode on events in the Middle east, the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and Iran's retaliation against its neighbors. And what we thought we would do is we would ask newscast listeners to send in questions because our listeners have a habit of hitting the nail on the head and helping us all understand what is going on. So I'm going to go through the questions and then together we'll sort of brainstorm the answers. And it's not like an exam. There's no correct answer, as I've discovered this week, for lots of these issues. So our first question is from Chris in Waterlooville. He says, or she says, do you think Trump has underestimated Iran's wide scale response. And then Chris has gone for a bonus second question saying, what does victory then look and, and feel like? So who wants to take that one? Lis?

[Lyse Doucet]

It's not even clear whether if President Trump was sitting here, whether he could give you an answer, because his answer has changed sometimes even from day to day. If we take what should be the most authoritative account, which was the nearly eight minute video he put out in the middle of the night in Florida time, the attacks had already started. Israel started the attacks in the early hours of Saturday morning. And he said yesterday, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Iran cannot have ballistic missiles. The Iranian armed forces should lay down their arms, and when the bombing is done, the Iranian people should take control of their institutions. So in other words, regime change. But since then, sometimes he talked about Venezuela being the perfect scenario. In other words, you go in with military action, you remove the president, in this case the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, who was assassinated on Saturday. And then you work with a new person. Sometimes he talks about how many leaders have been killed. And he says, and it's a rather crass thing to say, but he keeps saying, well, the people we had in mind are already dead. And then he says the next day, well, everyone's dead that we were thinking of. And then today, just before we started recording, he said that he wants to be, he wants to help choose the next leader. So it's not clear, and maybe Jane can say it, it's not clear whether he would be happy with a change in the regime in Iran or, or it has to be regime change. And it doesn't help that senior members of administration give differing views on why the war started and when it will end.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, because, Jane, we've had quite a few conversations in the studio this week about, well, did the Israelis go first and the Americans had to follow them, or did the Americans and Israelis jump together? And there's different, differing accounts of that.

[Advertisement Voice]

Yeah.

[Jane Corbyn]

And as Lee said, members of President Trump's administration have said, first of all, rather astoundingly, we were bounced into it by the Israelis because we knew that they were going to hit Iran and Iran would hit us back, us, America. So we had to hit them. And then we've had them quite the opposite. So it's really been really all over the place. But I think the talk of regime change has really dialed down in the last few days. Although, as Lee says tonight or today, President Trump has indicated that he wants control over who comes next. And he's been quite firm. It should not be the son of Ayatollah Khamenei. So he's really put his spoke back in again, but less about regime change. And I think that's because the Americans realize that the people of Iran are not going to rise up and take to the streets with the risk of terrible bloodshed. That's not going to happen. So therefore, regime change is not perhaps going to be the simple thing that it was that we heard right at the beginning of these attacks.

[Adam Fleming]

And also, at least there isn't some new leader, Delcio Rodriguez, ready to go,

[Lyse Doucet]

like who went from vice president to president. And suddenly she seems, they seem to have decided it's better to work with the United States administration about cooperating with them on oil, on other things. The political system that you have in Venezuela is left wing Chabismo after Hugo Chavez. But what you have in Iran is something completely different. To give you just a very short explanation. It's not as if you can simply take, as they did in Venezuela with a certain amount of difficulty, because there are those in the administration, administration and the military who are ideologically, deeply, ideologically opposed to the United States, but the Iranian regime. It's not as if you can take one person and say who could possibly be more pragmatic, could be among the reformist camp rather than the hardliner principalist camp, as they say. But that person would not simply change the system. He has to work within a system which is layers and layers and layers, political, ideological, religious, security and the elite Revolutionary Guard Corps and the basic volunteer militia, ideologically hardline, deeply suspicious of the, of the United States.

[Adam Fleming]

And Jane, what about the first half of Chris's question, which is do you think Trump has underestimated Iran's wide scale response? Because I'm thinking back to the military action by the US Against Iran last summer where, yeah, Iran fired back, but in a very limited way as well.

[Jane Corbyn]

In firing back, it wasn't immediate, but this time they fired back immediately. And in ever widening Circles, I think 10 countries now have come under attack and as far away as Azerbaijan, even at one stage we were told a missile was heading for Turkey, who is a NATO member. So it's a much wider circle and far more attacks. So I think that although Iran made it very clear before this started that if there was action as last June, they would hit back at American bases, I think the scale, the number of attacks and the longevity of them has really surprised the Americans and it's certainly surprised the Gulf leaders as well.

[Lyse Doucet]

And I should Just mention it. Just this whole conflagration underlies not just the deep distrust between the two sides, but the deep misunderstandings that has imperiled has been part of this relationship ever since of course, the Islamic Revolution of 1979 that Steve Witkoff PRESIDENT Trump ENVOYS President Trump is surprised that the Iranians haven't given in after they saw the buildup of US Military might, the biggest buildup up in decades. To which then Iran's foreign minister posted on social media platform X, he put an Iranian flag and said we are Iranian. In other words, you misunderstand the nationalism of the people of Iran and their defiance and readiness to fight back.

[Adam Fleming]

And also Iran's neighbors. How prepared were they for this? Because the threat has been been there. But it also seems like they've been quite surprised at the theft there materialized.

[Jane Corbyn]

They didn't expect it. I was really struck by what happened in Kuwait where four reservists in the US military were, were killed. They were in a sort of a, almost like a, not a caravan, but they weren't even under hardened shelter. They were it specialists. They were working on trailer. Yeah, in a trailer. And they were, they were hit and killed in Kuwait and you sort of feel, wasn't there any recognition that they were exposed, they were American servicemen working on American base in Kuwait and yet they were not protected.

[Adam Fleming]

And yeah, you just think about Dubai airport. Like so many people I know fly through Dubai on the way to their holidays and that's now sort of, it's not a war zone, but it's a very vulnerable bit of the world now.

[Lyse Doucet]

Yeah. Someone a very senior official in the Gulf said to me today that what Iran in trying to increase the price, it's gone after sort of the headline buzzwords like Dubai. Everyone around the world knows what Dubai means. Go in Dubai as much as possible. And so Dubai, which has up until now been synonymous with stability, safe haven, place to get rich, place for the rich to playground. Now suddenly there's images and they're just the small ones, but still five star, six star hotels on fire, debris falling into swimming pools and of course Strait of Hormuz. And so all these words, buzzwords if you like, of what of places that matter to the world are what they are hitting. Right.

[Adam Fleming]

Chris, we've got a question.

[Lyse Doucet]

Legitimate targets of course.

[Adam Fleming]

But yes, and also some people would say Dubai is not a playground because the human rights for some of the people that live in Dubai aren't very good. Yeah, but that's all other issue. Chris, question for you.

[Lyse Doucet]

But the hotels are not deliberately being targeted. I should just clarify. It's misinterception. Missiles.

[Adam Fleming]

Oh, yeah. And that's the other thing, sort of the. There's a lot of fog of war here because you initially see reports, you think, oh, Iran has struck that building in that country.

[Jane Corbyn]

Often it's by the Fairmont Hotel, which has become emblematic because the Palm is emblematic of what Lisa's talking about. The playground that wasn't hit by a missile, that there was a drone that was intercepted and debris came down and, you know, obviously a hotel's full of glitzy bits and bobs. It just went up in, in flames and a lot of people took pictures of that and it went wild on social media. But it wasn't actually hit by a missile and it was.

[Adam Fleming]

That's the very basic observation about wars, is that they then have consequences and it's difficult to predict the consequences and it becomes confusing and there are spillover effects. Right, Chris, as promised, a question. Question now for you from Jimmy, who says, is Keir Starmer playing a blinder by showing strength, which is something Trump actually admires? Which is slightly counterintuitive question from Jimmy there, considering lots of the commentary around Keir Starmer.

[Chris Mason]

Keir Starmer's outlook, and he gave this news conference on Thursday afternoon, I think trying to, certainly from a UK perspective, seize the agenda and look like he's taking a grip of the UK response because he's faced pressure from Donald Trump, he's faced criticism from some voices in cybercrime, where there's the RAF base and indeed domestic pressure from various angles around the UK's response. I think there is something perhaps, and this is more Lisa and Jane's wheelhouse than it is mine in terms of Donald Trump respecting those who do stand up for themselves. That said, from the Prime Minister's perspective, it is also true that he's had, I think, quite a lot of pressure from Washington. We've seen it publicly. I think it's been happening privately as well, particularly regarding access to runways both in Gloucestershire and in Diego Garcia. I think the Prime Minister certainly got the impression at the news conference this afternoon wanting. Well, he used the phrase, he talked about being calm headed, that sort of sense that this is a conflict without. I mean, there's so many unanswered questions.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, yeah, his opening line was, I'm here to show you how calm I am and that's my leadership. And I do just wonder if you have to sort of say that explicitly. It sort of suggests you're Maybe feeling a little bit subconscious. Yes.

[Chris Mason]

I mean, subconscious. Yeah. I think there is a, there's a, that's a, that's, that's a fair, a fair kind of critique or, or observation. I think he was trying to certainly to a UK audience give across a sense that he sort of knows what he's doing and he's approaching, as I say, with that kind of calm headed sense. I think there's a sense in government they know where public opinion is at the moment. It's certainly the early evidence of public opinion in the UK which has long been skeptical. Donald Trump, full stop. But then I think is about, about this war as, as, as well. And I think as well, I think a sense from him of almost a sort of new reckoning around the whole quote, unquote, special relationship. Because you know so much. We talked about this, didn't we, earlier in the week on newscast? Obviously he has invested a huge amount of effort into building a decent relationship with Donald Trump. We've seen repeatedly now Donald Trump in the last couple of days be pretty critical.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, yeah. Let's remind people about what happened in the Oval Office at the start of the week when the German Chancellor was visiting. Donald Trump was doing one of his Q&As with the press and he was asked about the attitude of Britain to the military action in Iran. And this is what he said, by

[Donald Trump]

the way, I'm not happy with the UK either. That island that you read about the lease, okay, he made it, for whatever reason, he made a lease of the island. Somebody came and took it away from him and it's taken three, four days for us to work out where we can land there. It would have been much more convenient landing there as opposed to flying many extra hours. So we are very surprised. This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with.

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[Adam Fleming]

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[Lyse Doucet]

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[Chris Mason]

So that's a reference he's making there to the Chagos Islands. And we've talked, haven't we, on newscast about this long running argument about the future of the Chagos Islands, in particular the military base on Diego Garcia and The argument that you've heard from the British government, given that there's a. There's been something of a row about the future of the Chagos Islands, is the way to secure the long term future of the base, even though it comes with a price tag, is to hand over the sovereignty to Mauritius, but then to lease back the base. And that that offers, so the British government argues, is the long term future of this base, which is for 100 years. Yeah. Which is hugely important to the UK and indeed to America. I think Donald Trump has rather conflated the arguments around the future of the base with arguments around the Prime Minister not giving him permission in the first instance to use the military base there from American bombers targeting Iran. That permission has now been granted, we think, for both the base there and indeed Rafur in Gloucestershire for these defensive strikes on missile sites in Iran. But clearly a frustration there. You've heard from the president that, that not only was this a disagreement with Keir Starmer, but it was a disagreement from the White House's perspective, with consequence because they couldn't use those runways. And that was, that was inconvenient because they had to use other runways with additional flying hours, et cetera, et cetera.

[Adam Fleming]

I don't know what newscaster Jimmy's film tastes are, but I wonder if he's getting at the love. Actually reference by when he says, is Keir Starmer playing a blinder by showing strength. In other words, like in the film when Hugh Grant's the Prime Minister and Billy Bob Thornton is the president. And Hugh Grant basically says to Billy Bob Thornton very publicly, you ain't, you ain't having what you. I'm not giving you what you want. I can't remember what the actual policy issue is in that film.

[Lyse Doucet]

My goodness.

[Adam Fleming]

Is this an example, though, of Keir Starmer?

[Lyse Doucet]

Is Keir Starmer like Hugh Grant or

[Adam Fleming]

is he like, I mean.

[Chris Mason]

Well, I think I thought it was an interesting riff from the Prime Minister at Prime Minister's questions this week where he tried to publicly redefine or define in his own mind publicly what he sees the, the special relationship to be. So he was saying in terms, it's not about hanging on every word of President Trump. And that's pretty much what he said, I think, not hanging on every word of President Trump, but it is about intelligence sharing. And by the way, when I speak to folk who are in the sort of deeper elements of the, of the relationship, if you like, between London and Washington, they emphasize this military and intelligence and security services cooperation which is really deep seated. And then the political relationship sort of ebbs and flows depending on who's in the White House and who's in Downing street, etc. Etc. But talking about intelligence sharing, talking about the military cooperation going on in terms of protecting allies in the Gulf, etc. Etc. As opposed to if you like the more if you like rhetorical stuff between the two leaders. But then I suppose that's what you are going to say when there's, when it's been a bit bumpy.

[Jane Corbyn]

Yeah, but the relationship hasn't been perfect in the past. Good relations. Think of George Bush and Tony Blair. There have been less good relations obviously Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan also strong. But you know, you, you don't have to go that far back. Vietnam, Britain refusing to send troops to Vietnam and you know what happened there. So I think you're right. It's. There's a sort of public level which is a relationship between usually two men, maybe a woman, occasionally Mrs. Thatcher and then the reality which is the much deeper and broader understanding and cooperation on defense and intelligence.

[Adam Fleming]

But one of the interesting things about this conflict is just how everyone is trying to project their version of strength and trying to do it very visually. So for example, Pete Hegseth, the Defense Secretary in Washington, the Secretary of State for War, as he calls himself, published that video which appears to show an American submarine shooting an Iranian naval vessel off the coast of Sri Lanka. Just another example of the ripples spreading out very, very wide from this conflict because Sri Lanka's a very long way away from Iran. And then he was sort of going on this whole thing of this quite yeehaw thing of this is the first time the Americans have sunk a ship with a torpedo since World War II. And then you've got Emmanuel Macron doing that speech about France's policy on nuclear weapons in front of a huge nuclear submarine in a dry dock. And then he's sending the French aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer is talking about sending HMS Dragon and it's going to take about two weeks for HMS Dragon to get, get to Cyprus. So all this sort of supposed strength or whatever it being deployed very visually.

[Chris Mason]

Yes. But then the twist with the whole question around HMS Dragon with the Prime Minister getting some criticism for how long it's going to take to get to the, the Mediterranean, probably a couple of weeks because it hasn't set off yet is my understanding is it was due to be heading to the high north

[Adam Fleming]

and of course, oh, last month's crisis

[Chris Mason]

well, this is the point, isn't it? What were we talking about? Just a matter of a couple of weeks ago in the context of Greenland and that last flare up between President Trump and other Western leaders around all of those, all of those questions. So my goodness. And then on the question of Donald Trump and his relationship with others, not least Keir Starmer, I'm struck and least this is intriguing, isn't it, with this president. And then we were examining with the history of the special relationship over decades. The relationship between Donald Trump and notionally his allies can ebb and flow in matters of days and weeks, can't it? You just think around the rhetoric around President Zelenskyy, for instance, and how that's ebbed and flowed.

[Lyse Doucet]

Yeah. He might tomorrow call up and say how much he loves the king, loves the accent of Sir Keir Starmer. It just, you just don't know from other and by the way, in one way he is like Churchill because Churchill really flattered Roosevelt as well and tried to send him thousands of messages and really made it Chris Churchill came up with the phrase special relationship 80 years ago this week.

[Jane Corbyn]

Eight years ago this week.

[Lyse Doucet]

But you know, just on the line, you know, I find it really interesting because you've also had Mark Carney who has basically saying, well, okay, we have given, we are backing it with with regret and then hasten to say, but we see this as a, that it isn't consistent with international law. So you have secure Starmer the barrister and Mark Carney the banker trying to make sense of Trump the property dealer. And it's like, you know, what if a banker, a barrister and a property eater walked into a bar, what kind of war would they have? But they're really, and I will say this in secure sarmist defense, the legality of it mattered because what does the UN Charter say that you can only take this kind of action, invade another country, attack another country is if you have a UN Security Council resolution or if there is an imminent threat and there is neither still in this war and it's about to enter its second

[Jane Corbyn]

week and obviously everyone will remember what happened with Iraq.

[Lyse Doucet]

Yes. The shadow is there.

[Chris Mason]

That shadow is there that Keir Starmer refers to explicitly.

[Lyse Doucet]

Yes, and exactly.

[Jane Corbyn]

The efforts that were gone to to ensure a UN Security Council resolution and the questions over the legality and would the advice be made public. And it was all very, very difficult. And nobody is forgetting that. And as you say, especially Keir Starr and they shouldn'.

[Tech Podcast Host]

Right.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, we've done a sterling job of getting Through a whole two questions. A lot of brainstorming going on here. Right, a question from Simon in Aberdeenshire. Oh, this is. This is a good one because this goes. Gets deep into actually how Iran works as a country. And Simon says, what is the status of the regular Iranian army, not the irgc, not the Revolutionary Guards Corps. And is the domestic Iranian army enough to depose the weakened regime or protect citizens from a clampdown? In other words, quite often, if you had a coup, it would be driven by the army. They'd be replacing their leaders and they'd step in to sort of look after the people. But of course, in Iran, you've also got these elite Revolutionary Guards as well.

[Jane Corbyn]

Ideological.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jane Corbyn]

Well, the regular army is actually big. It's about 400,000 strong, but it is a regular army and its task is to secure the territorial integrity of Iran, both internally and externally. And, you know, if there's an external threat, but that's a big army. And the irgc, which is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is exactly what it says. It was created in the aftermath of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, specifically to guard the tenets or the beliefs of the Islamic Revolution and to guard the supreme leader. And it's a much smaller force. It's about 125,000. So it's, you know, a third to a quarter of the size of the regular army. But it has the power, because not only is it the power, together with the besieged militia that lies mentioned, the paramilitaries that essentially go with it, it controls the sort of sharp end of the defense system. The navy, the missile brigades, the whole nuclear program. These all come under the irgc. It has the real strength, and it also has tentacles deep into the country, into its economy, into its industry, into its politics. So it is the real force in Iran and not the. Not the conventional army.

[Adam Fleming]

And Jane and I had a great conversation on Wednesday's episode of Newscast, where we were quizzing our colleague Siavash Ardalan from BBC Persian, and he was talking about how there's a. There's a theory and some evidence that the. The Khamenei regime told the IRGC to be quite decentralized and sort of just gave them some broad instructions about if there was an attack from the Americans. Here's what you should do in principle, but it's up to you, individual units, individual regions of the country, to fight back in the way that works for you. Which kind of it harder for the US to dismantle.

[Lyse Doucet]

But also the foreign Minister, Abbas Arakchi, admitted this because he was interviewed and was made kind of an apology to Oman, which had come under attack. But Oman has been the main mediator between Iran and the United States for decades. You could see his expression. He said, well, it's decentralized now. In effect, he was hinting that someone took the decision to hit Oman, not. Not realizing how crucial Oman was to the Islamic Republic.

[Adam Fleming]

Does Iran have any friends now? Because a lot of those countries that it's been attacking were sort of getting into the friend zone. In the last few years, there was

[Lyse Doucet]

a huge rapprochement that these major Sunni Arab states, including the wealthy Gulf monarchies and the Islamic Republic of Iran, had come to a kind of a rapprochement, realizing that, to use a phrase that sometimes use regional solutions, regional problems need regional solutions. And during, for example, the 12 Day War last year, it was absolutely crucial that Abbas Alqji, the foreign minister, could pick up the telephone and talk to countries in Arab capitals. And in the run up to this war, they were on the phone constantly to President Trump or racing to Washington to tell him, don't go to war because it will have huge consequences. But again today, a very senior Gulf official said to me, it will take take decades to repair this lack of trust. And in fact, they said to me that if and when the negotiations ever resume, Iran had been refusing to put ballistic missiles on it. There's no way now that the United States, Israel, or these Gulf states, Arab states who've come under attack, are going to allow Iran not to include ballistic missiles. They now see it as a threat.

[Chris Mason]

How much of a risk is there now, of course, of total chaos in Iran?

[Jane Corbyn]

Very high, I think. Very high. Because as Lise said, it's decentralized. The order went out. You control your own regions. There's some 30 provinces, there's some 12 ethnic groups, and a huge country. And a huge country. So the possibility of a fracture and the possibility of a failed state is, I think, growing potentially more risky. And, of course, a failed state means is what the Americans have been talking about in the last few days, which is the threat of terror and what will come out of Iran, what might crop up in other countries, obviously also criminal elements and the outflow of refugees. And when you think about a huge country like Iran, how many thousands of refugees could flow out and into Europe and create a crisis. The stakes are really, really high that Iran disintegrates in some way. Ooh la la.

[Lyse Doucet]

But this is what's causing such unease and torment for Iranis Even those who want to change. Iran is a very proud people, very nationalistic, and the integrity of Iran really matters and we don't have time to go into this, but the reports, conflicting reports about either United States or Israel arming the Kurds is sending shockwaves among Iranians who don't want it to break up on ethnic alliances, as you said. But it all depends, Chris, on how long it goes on. So far, the center is holding. So far.

[Adam Fleming]

Was that a bit of French Canadian popping out there?

[Lyse Doucet]

What?

[Adam Fleming]

When you said ooh la la, did

[Lyse Doucet]

I say ooh la la?

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah, and you said it in a very French way, but also a little bit Canadian.

[Jane Corbyn]

What if I'm wrong?

[Adam Fleming]

But just.

[Chris Mason]

I saw you flinch.

[Adam Fleming]

Just to end on a serious note, though, and actually, Jane, I was just thinking that when you said, oh, there could be a huge refugee crisis, I hadn't, I hadn't even thought about that. And I think it's because we've got colleagues who are on Iran's borders looking to see for people crossing and they've all been reporting that it's a trickle of people.

[Jane Corbyn]

Yeah, because the centre is holding, as Lee says, at the moment, it's holding.

[Adam Fleming]

And so psychologically it feels like, oh, there isn't a huge wave of refugees fleeing yet.

[Chris Mason]

But it's only day. Well, week one.

[Jane Corbyn]

It's only week one. And then we're back to what is the timeframe for this? And I don't think we obviously heard President Trump saying four to five weeks at one point. And then he said, we're ahead of schedule. So what does that mean? Does that mean a few more days? But, you know, wars. I mean, Putin was going to take Kyiv in a week. Obviously it was all going to be over and it's months later and they're years later, years later, four years later. And, you know, you just think people start out with these type of things.

[Lyse Doucet]

God help all of us if it's still going on, doesn't bear thinking about.

[Adam Fleming]

And then this is going to sound a bit parochial now, considering the issues.

[Lyse Doucet]

We're forgetting our listeners questions.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, we've run out of time now. We've managed to three, three whole questions, but they were very good. High quality question. But I was just going to make the point, Chris. And it's about the energy price cap, which might sound a bit ridiculous in this context of what we've just been talking about. We've just had the new energy price cap put in place for the next three months and it had come down because the government had taken lots of the so called policy costs of energy bills. So the things that are mandated by the government, the next energy price cap will have to take into account the international price of gas, which this week went through the roof. Now if it goes back down through the roof in the other direction, back to the floor in the next couple of days, the price cap in the summer might be fine. But if it stays at this elevated level, then everyone's energy bills will go up a lot. Just when the government was trying to tell the story about their energy bills going down.

[Chris Mason]

Yes, and so I mean that this

[Adam Fleming]

is another longer term consequence completely.

[Chris Mason]

And so to be very kind of parochial, very domestic, I'm conscious looking at it through the prison that, that I do that at the moment. Of course, you've got the geopolitical, the military, the reality of this ongoing war, which is obviously hu and hugely significant. You've then got the, if you like, practical and consular, what the UK is doing. They allowed us in, in this, in this attempt to talk up what they're doing in terms of trying to grip this domestically. They allowed our cameras into their crisis center, as they call it in the Foreign Office today, showing us what they're doing, trying to pull together, bringing Brits back from the region, et cetera, et cetera. And then there is the economic and the kind of practical consequences for millions of newscasters and others worrying about petrol prices, worrying about inflation, worrying about interest rates, worrying about energy bills. And those in government beginning to think how is that managed? And then that's back to the big imponderable about how long this lasts and with what consequence and who assumes the leadership of Iran in that the short, medium and long term, etc. Etc. Those are just all at the moment impossible questions to answer, aren't they? But profound. Big questions that could have huge consequence domestically, at a European level, at a global level.

[Adam Fleming]

And can me and Chris do a bit of a humble brag, just talking about how the government manages these crises? We're the only journalists who've been in the COBRA briefing room under the Cabinet Office of Whitehall.

[Chris Mason]

That was for newscast, wasn't it? When was that? Seven or eight months ago.

[Lyse Doucet]

Touch you, Lisa.

[Adam Fleming]

I think you've achieved a lot more journalistically than I have. I've been to one interesting room.

[Jane Corbyn]

Well, that's been in play again this week.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. The thing about COBRA that I take away from that is, I mean, let's be honest, it is just a room with lots of screens and chairs, the art, the artwork, so the artwork has been chosen from the government art collection to remind ministers when they're making life and death decisions. About life and death.

[Lyse Doucet]

Oh, no.

[Adam Fleming]

Chris said. Oh, it's just some pictures of flowers. Oh, no, flowers to remind everyone.

[Lyse Doucet]

Church. Is Churchill down there?

[Jane Corbyn]

Yeah.

[Adam Fleming]

I didn't see it.

[Chris Mason]

No, I don't think so. So the Prime Minister chaired his second COBRA of this war on Thursday, having done the first one on Saturday. And there's been, I think they call it Cobra O, which is cobra, official level meetings that have been happening in the. In the other days, in between.

[Adam Fleming]

Right, that's all for. What should we call this? What did I come up with? The acronym today. Cast stands for Current Assessment of the Situation Today. Because we were doing, we were doing a program earlier on, me and Jane, but with lots of military acronyms. So I came up with my own acronym, which.

[Chris Mason]

I like that. What was that?

[Adam Fleming]

Current Assessment of the Situation Today.

[Chris Mason]

News, or what we normally call news.

[Jane Corbyn]

That's what we're doing.

[Adam Fleming]

Let's stick with the old name, the News. Right. Jane, thank you very much.

[Podcast Narrator]

Much.

[Jane Corbyn]

It's a pleasure to be here.

[Adam Fleming]

Lys. Thank you.

[Lyse Doucet]

Always a pleasure.

[Adam Fleming]

And Chris, good to catch up.

[Podcast Narrator]

Thank you.

[Chris Mason]

Adam. Newscast, newscast from the BBC.

[Newscast Outro Host]

From one newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know and don't forget, you can email us anytime. [e-mail] or if you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on 440-330-1239480. Be assured, I promise, we listen to everyone.

[Podcast Narrator]

This is not the future we were promised. Like, how about that for a tagline

[Adam Fleming]

for the show from the BBC?

[Tech Podcast Host]

This is the interface, the show that explores how tech is rewiring your week and your world.

[Lyse Doucet]

This isn't about quarterly earnings or about tech reviews.

[Tech Podcast Host]

It's about what technology is actually doing to your work and your politics, your

[Podcast Narrator]

everyday life and all the bizarre ways people are using the Internet that listen

[Tech Podcast Host]

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