Iran’s New Supreme Leader (Sort Of) Speaks Out

Summary

Podcast Summary: Newscast – "Iran’s New Supreme Leader (Sort Of) Speaks Out"

Date: March 12, 2026
Host(s): Alex, James
Guests: Jane Corbyn (BBC journalist), Barana Basi (Reporter & Presenter, BBC Persian), James Landale (BBC Correspondent in Kyiv)

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Episode Overview

This episode dissects the first public statement purportedly from Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, following his father’s death in an Israeli attack—a statement issued amid intense speculation about his health, legitimacy, and grip on power. The panel delves into what the statement reveals (or obscures), its implications for Iran domestically and regionally, the ongoing war involving the US, Israel, and Iran, and the ripple effects on Ukraine and global geopolitics.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Statement from Iran’s New Supreme Leader

• Authenticity in Doubt

  • The statement was broadcast by an announcer, not Mojtaba himself, raising questions about its authenticity and his physical condition.
    • “There have been a lot of speculation about his health... The statement did not really put an end to those speculations. We still don’t know even whether this statement was made by him or someone in the IRGC…”
      — Barana Basi [03:14]

• Personal Content (Possibly for Propaganda)

  • Mojtaba claims to have seen his father’s body post-martyrdom, describes the hand “clenched in a fist,” and mentions family members killed.
  • Possibly aimed at showing he survived the Israeli attack, asserting proximity, or shoring up legitimacy.
    • “He said that he had the honor of seeing the body of his father…after his martyrdom and his uninjured hand was clenched in a fist. That could just be propaganda...”
      — Jane Corbyn [04:50]

• Succession Irregularities

  • Mojtaba claims he learned of his new role through state TV, not the standard confidential council process. The Assembly of Experts didn’t visibly meet (meeting place was bombed).
    • “None of those procedures seem to have been followed… He doesn’t have the religious qualifications. He’s not a Grand Ayatollah… The concept of hereditary succession was something that was rejected…”
      — Barana Basi [06:31]
  • Suggests the IRGC, not religious or civilian institutions, drove the process.

• Notable Quote:
  “It could be designed to make it look as if it really is him.”
  — Jane Corbyn [05:59]

2. Policies & Tone in the Statement

• Focus on Defiance and Continuity

  • Calls for Straits of Hormuz to remain closed—a significant threat to global oil supplies and economic stability.
    • “The leverage… of closing the Straits of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used...”
      — Jane Corbyn [11:55]
  • Urges "regional friends" to close US bases—considered largely rhetorical.
  • No outreach to ordinary Iranians; speech underscores regime and “resistance” themes, not national unity or economic betterment.
    • “The statement of resistance…didn’t say anything about the development of Iran, a better future for Iran…”
      — Barana Basi [15:52]

• Proxy Strategy and Threats

  • Appreciation for regional “resistance front” (Hezbollah, Yemen, Iraqi militias).
  • Allusions to opening new fronts and threats to hit Western and regional economic targets.

3. Regional Reaction & Geopolitical Dynamics

• Iran’s Regional Influence & Gulf Countries’ Response

  • Neighboring Gulf countries won’t close US bases—too risky amid the US military presence.
    • “…they cannot, they don't have the leverage to basically close those bases because this is actually standing up to Donald Trump. And I don't think any country in the world at the moment would want to do that.”
      — Barana Basi [13:53]
  • Ongoing proxy conflicts—Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon (notably drone strike on British base in Erbil).

• Iranian Public Sentiment

  • Initial celebration upon Khamenei’s death shifted to anxiety and exhaustion as civilian casualties and infrastructure damage mount.
    • “When the Supreme Leader was killed…there were celebrations in the streets. But the sentiments have been changing because…People are tired of the sound of bombings…”
      — Barana Basi [17:34]

• No Real Change for Iranians

  • The regime is seen as just as hardline, with a militarized tilt.
    • “Everything about the speech indicates it's a continuation of what was there before… the IRGC.”
      — Jane Corbyn [19:41]
  • US and Israeli attacks and Iranian retaliation continue, with heavy blows to Lebanon and escalating threats around financial institutions.

4. Impact on Iran’s Economy & Society

• Crippling Economic and Civilian Impact
  • Oil price volatility; targeting of infrastructure and banks.
  • New Year’s holiday (Nowruz) marred by fear, economic hardship, displacement, and lack of basic security.
    • “People cannot afford buying new items to celebrate the new year…there are no shelters made for the people…People only find out about that when a bomb has hit somewhere.”
      — Barana Basi [22:47]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We don’t know if this statement is real, but we’re gonna have to proceed…as if it is… But I think it’s really important…there is a very big question mark hanging all over all of this.”
  — James [04:22]

• “He does not reach out to all Iranians, only those who supported the regime…The enduring slogan…has been death to America and death to Israel, never the development of Iran.”
  — Barana Basi [15:52]

• “The fact that he didn’t seem to know, or he’s saying that he didn’t know until the broadcast was made…that might not be true. It might just be a reflection of the fact that the struggle went on for a long time.”
  — Jane Corbyn [08:36]

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Noteworthy Segment Timestamps:

• [03:14-04:50]: Authenticity and delivery of Mojtaba Khamenei’s statement; speculation on his health.
• [06:31-09:35]: Succession irregularities and hereditary rule critique.
• [10:05-11:25]: Regional strategic implications—the Straits of Hormuz and transition toward militarized leadership.
• [15:52-17:34]: Internal divisions, absence of national outreach in the statement, shifting Iranian public sentiment.
• [21:08-24:47]: Ongoing violence in Lebanon and Iran, destruction of infrastructure, and impact on Nowruz celebrations.

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Special Segment: Impact of the Iran Conflict on Ukraine

Q&A with James Landale Reporting from Kyiv

• Oil Prices Help Russia

  • Surge in oil prices aids Russia's war finances despite sanctions, as war in Iran destabilizes global markets.
    • “If the basic price of crude oil goes up, then that fills Russia’s coffers. That helps fuel its war machine, and that is a net positive for Russia.”
      — James Landale [25:19]

• Air Defense Scarcity

  • Western/Gulf missile usage limits available air defense for Ukraine. 800+ Patriots fired in Gulf in days exceeds Ukraine’s usage over four years.
    • “About 800…air defense missiles…had been fired off to defend Gulf countries and elsewhere…more than Ukraine has fired in the entire four years of its war here.”
      — James Landale [27:19]

• Technology and Training as Leverage

  • Ukraine has expertise in drone interception and is advising allies in the Gulf, but must balance aid with domestic defense needs.
    • “The Ukrainians say here…what matters is the training, it's the expertise…This is what the Ukrainians are fantastic at.”
      — James Landale [31:16]

• Russia’s Calculus

  • Putin is adopting a low-key approach, seeking not to antagonize Trump and to benefit from high oil prices, while keeping strategic distance from Iran’s conflict.
    • “The Kremlin has been conspicuous in its silence…Putin's central prize is this war…Vladimir Putin does not want to get into a place where he's incredibly critical of the Americans.”
      — James Landale [37:14]

• Sanctions and Economic Fallout

  • Discussion of possible US easing of energy sanctions on Russia to curb oil prices—a worrying scenario for Ukraine.

• Proxy Conflict Potential

  • No formal Russia-Iran defense alliance; their partnership is opportunistic. Risks of escalation or deeper involvement persist but not imminent.
    • “It’s always been a partnership of convenience rather than ideology.”
      — James Landale [41:25]

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Closing Thoughts

• The Supreme Leader’s Statement Reveals Uncertainty

  • The opaque statement exemplifies a regime focused on projection of strength externally, but deeply uncertain internally—ruling through force, not consent.

• Iranian People in Crisis

  • Suffering mounts among civilians, with no relief in sight as the regime doubles down on militarization and ideological dogma rather than unity or reform.

• Wider Impacts

  • The war’s economic and strategic fallout extends to Ukraine and beyond, shifting global alliances, arms supplies, and energy markets in real time.

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For listeners:

This episode provides crucial context on Iran’s murky succession, the militarization of its government, real-time regional destabilization, and the interconnected effects reaching as far as Ukraine’s battlefield and Europe’s geopolitical calculations.

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Key contributors/speakers in this episode:

• Alex (BBC Host)
• James (BBC Host)
• Jane Corbyn (BBC Journalist)
• Barana Basi (BBC Persian)
• James Landale (from Kyiv)

Useful Quote for Context:
“Everything about the speech indicates it’s a continuation of what was there before… the IRGC.”
— Jane Corbyn [19:41]

Transcript

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[Alex]

hello and a massive thank you for sending in all of your questions about the U. S. Israeli war with Iran. One of those questions we wanted to put to James Landale who is currently in Kiev. And you're going to hear his answer in the second half of today's newscast.

[James]

Yeah, but just as we were sitting down to actually speak to James, we got reports that the new Supreme Leader in Iran, Mojtabah Khamenei, was going to issue his first statement. And he did. But it's possibly left us with more questions than answers. So that is what we're going to talk about on this episode of Newscast

[Alex]

Newscast Newscast from the BBC.

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Fat Boy Slim and me in the classroom doing our violin lessons.

[James]

I was the tattletail in the classroom.

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Can I have an apology, please?

[James]

I trust almost nobody.

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Then daddy has to sometimes use strong language.

[James]

Next time in the mosque.

[Alex]

I feel delulu with no sululu.

[Jane Corbyn]

Take me down to Downing Street.

[Barana Basi]

Let's go have a tour.

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Blimey.

[Alex]

Hello, it's Alex in the Westminster studio.

[James]

And it's James in the newscast studio. And to help us unpack this first statement we've had from the new Supreme Leader of Iran, Morjtabah Khamenei is Jane Corbyn. Welcome back. Hello, Jane.

[Jane Corbyn]

Thank you, James. Good to be back.

[James]

Absolutely. And Barana Basi is reporter and PRESENTER from BBC Persian. And Barana's with us here as well. Hello.

[Barana Basi]

Hello.

[Alex]

Hello. So, Baran, I just want to get a sense first of what your initial reaction was when we heard that a statement was coming from the new Supreme Leader, because we were hearing from one of your colleagues from BBC Persian cvash earlier in the week on newscast, just about how elusive he is and how so many people haven't really heard any kind of sentiment or statement from him.

[Barana Basi]

Exactly. So we were wondering whether the statement would be in the form of an audio or video of. Or would it just be a written statement. And in the end, we found out that actually it was a written statement read by a state TV presenter. So because there have been a lot of speculation about his health, State TV had said earlier that he was injured in the attack that left his father, the previous Supreme Leader, dead. So we really don't know what his health condition is at the moment, where he is, whether he's hiding in a bunker or whether he's in a hospital. So the statement did not really put an end to those speculations. We still don't know even whether this statement was made by him or someone in the irgc, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard cause, who would put out a statement on behalf of him to just maybe put an end to the speculations. But I think it just backfired.

[James]

I mean, I think that is the starting point here, isn't it? Is. We don't know if this statement is real, but we're gonna have to proceed for the purposes of having a discussion about what's in it here on newscast as if it is real and as if it does represent the position of the Supreme Leader of Iran. But I think it's really important, Baron, and you've done it to put that caveat right at the start here, is there is a very big question mark hanging all over. Over all of this.

[Jane Corbyn]

Yeah. And although, when you read it, if, as you say, we take it as a given that this is correct and it has come from him or at least been sanctioned by him, he does actually say some quite personal things in it. I was surprised to read that he said that he had the honor of seeing the body of his father, the previous Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, after his martyrdom and his uninjured hand was clenched in a fist. Now, that could just be propaganda to say he was so strong and he went down fighting, but he does refer to seeing the body. And there was a lot of speculation at the time. Was Moshtaba himself somewhere else Was he injured? Was he killed? Whereas maybe that's there to show that he not only was there, but he saw his father's body after the Israeli strike. And he also talks about his sympathy with the families of the noble martyrs, as he calls them, and he talks about his loyal and dear wife who was martyred, and his sister and. And. And a husband of another sister. So there is some personal content in there, as well as of other things, which maybe is for real, or maybe it's designed to make it look as if it really is him.

[Alex]

In terms of some of the. I've read the statement as well. I've read a translation of the statement as well. In terms of some of the other sort of lines that really stood out. There was some information there about what, how he said he found out that he'd become the Supreme Leader of Iran. And he said he learned about the result of the vote of the esteemed assembly of Experts in the word in the statement, at the same time as everybody else, effectively through the state television channels. I'm just wondering, is that kind of normal? I mean, what. What do we know about the process or how he might have been told that he'd been chosen?

[Barana Basi]

It is not normal at all because there is a procedure to how the Supreme Leader is selected. It is the job of SM Day. It is the job of the assembly of Experts. It comprises of 88 clerics that have been chosen by the Supreme Leader. So when he dies, then the next Supreme Leader is supposed to be chosen by that assembly, and two thirds of them need to vote for the person who is going to be the Supreme Leader, and they need to meet in person. And none of those procedures seem to have been followed because there was no report of the assembly meeting in person. Their place where they meet was bombed by Israel a few days earlier. Also, he does not meet the requirements in the Constitution for the Supreme Leader. He doesn't have the religious qualifications. He's not a granoi atollo. And although his father fell short on that score as well, but he falls short even more than his father. And he's also. The Islamic Republic was founded on the idea that the fate of the whole country would be placed in the hands of the most distinguished Shia jurists, which most of all is nothing like that. And also, the concept of hereditary succession was something that was rejected by the founders of the Islamic Republic. Ayatollahruullah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader, rejected the idea of hereditary succession as something

[James]

evil because that's what they were getting Rid of.

[Barana Basi]

Exactly. They got rid of the monarchy and they made fun of the hereditary monarchy.

[Jane Corbyn]

Even his father, apparently Ali Khamenei, was against the concept of creating a dynasty and have his own son take over. And yet this is what happened. And we do know that, that the process of choosing and announcing him was very drawn out, obviously not surprisingly, because they were under attack. And as you said, Baran, you know, the place where the assembly of experts met was bombed. But even so, it took a while. And most people believe that there was in fact quite a struggle between the moderates and the more extreme wing, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, who very much wanted Mojtaba. He was their candidate. And the moderates who were saying, look, you know, let's be wise about this, let's try to, you know, improve the situation. So I, I think that the fact that he didn't seem to know, or he's saying that he didn't know until the broadcast was made and the people learned at the same time, that could be a little bit, that might not be true. It might just be a reflection of the fact that the struggle went on for a long time and nobody could actually announce that he was next because it wasn't agreed for some time.

[Alex]

I think in terms of the, the way that he is responding to the U.S. israeli war in Iran is the key points. It's about the saying that he thinks the Straits of Hormuz should remain closed, the continuation of the Straits of Hormu, and urging what he calls the sort of regional friends, so those other Gulf nations to close American bases there. I just wonder what your interpretation of what kind of action we're likely to see, if any, is a consequence of that.

[Barana Basi]

In terms of action. I think it's just Iran is trying to project defiance and continuity, basically. So Iran knows that it is no match militarily to Israel and America. So it's trying to draw out this conflict by widening the scope of the conflict by raising the stakes for Donald Trump, hoping that he would pull the plug on the war just as he did last year with the Houthis, when the war with those rebels who are also proxies of Iran proved costly and unwinnable. So Iran is trying to say that it is able to drag this conflict out for as long as it wants to. And it believes that the Donald Trump is looking for a spectacular and limited campaign rather than an open ended campaign. So this is just the continuation of what we've seen. That's why Mujtabo is considered only as a figurehead Even if this statement is released by him, it seems that the irgc, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard cause, is actually running the country and the leadership is moving away from the civilian leadership to a militarized form of government.

[James]

Well, let's talk a little bit more and try to explain to newscasters what might be going on here in terms of that response. And maybe we can break it down into a few things. There's the Straits of Hormuz, there's the bases, and then maybe come back to the people of Iran. But let's, let's talk about the Straits of Hormuz, Jane, because is this the best card in the hand of the Iranians at the moment and the disruption this is causing to the world economy? And the suggestion in here seems to be this is very much going to continue.

[Jane Corbyn]

Yeah. Moshtabh says in his speech, the leverage. The leverage is an interesting word of closing the Straits of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used. And also he rather threateningly says that there are studies regarding the opening of other fronts where the enemy enemy has little experience and would be highly vulnerable and activate them. So you think, yes, he's talking about the Straits of Hormuz, but he's sort of threatening other things. And you have to think that from a Western perspective or the countries around, that could mean terror attacks, it could mean anything. But there are a lot of threats in here. And of course he understands the economic leverage behind the closing of the Straits of Hormuz. I think six ships have been hit to date and we've seen the price of oil shoot up well over $100 a barrel, fallen back a bit and then back up again. And he knows that that is a strong leverage. And I absolutely agree with you, Baran, that it seems like it's the IRGC speaking, not him, not a politician, because they are talking about what else to do, you know, how else to exploit the vulnerabilities of the enemy. So it's very much apart from the usual things that he says about his father, many of which we've heard before, the rather flowery language, it's quite tough in terms of a sort of military response and what should happen. And the Gulf states, you know, right up there warning them, you know, the 15 countries that share our maritime and land borders, you better close US Bases, because I'm very sorry, he apologizes, but we've got to continue hitting you. And that of course, will impact the oil price in the economy in that oil producing region.

[Alex]

So that's always been assumed that it was Part of a very sort of deliberate strategy, this idea that the sort of maximizing the economic impact, but also drawing in those neighboring countries. I just wonder, this sort of plea, if you like, in this statement from the supreme leader to those neighboring countries to close down the bases, do you think that's going to have any impact? Is that going to, you know, are they going to respond in any way to that?

[Barana Basi]

Regional countries have been trying to mediate between Iran and the US and trying to prevent this war in the first place. And at the moment, they think that they're just caught up in the conflict, in the middle of the conflict, and they cannot, they don't have the leverage to basically close those bases because this is actually standing up to Donald Trump. And I don't think any country in the world at the moment would want to do that. And in terms of Iran, well, it has been a coexistence with the neighboring countries to some extent, but they haven't had extremely good relationships. Iran and Saudi Arabia, for example, have been fighting a proxy war in Yemen for a few years. And so I don't think the regional countries have the luxury of closing the US Basis, but also do not want to escalate with the new Iranian regime.

[Jane Corbyn]

Other thing that he says in the speech is he thanks what they call the resistance front, and these are the proxies, essentially those who are allied to Iraq and those who are allied to Iran and who are paid by them and sponsored. He talks about Hezbollah, he talks about the brave and faithful Yemen, he talks about Gaza, and he talks about the Iraqi resistance in Iraq. And of course, we've seen British bases in Erbil targeted with drones. So he's kind of appealing to draw together what used to be called the axis of resistance, to present another front which will also complicate relations with those Gulf states, because a lot of them are, are in the region. And again, that is very much an IRGC approach. They run those proxies. And when I read that, I sort of feel I'm listening to the IRGC rather than to a political leader, if there were such a thing, a political leader in Iran.

[Barana Basi]

The statement of resistance, he repeated the commitment to the destruction of Israel, but did say nothing, didn't say anything about the development of Iran, a better future for Iran. He didn't promise opening of the economy to the world, something that the majority of the Iranian people are suffering from. The economy is in shambles, and that's what triggered the latest round of protests in January. He does not reach out to all Iranians only those who supported the regime, those who took to the streets and mourned the supreme Leader and the rest of the commanders who died in the Israeli and American attacks. But he said nothing about the whole Iranian community. He didn't really try to be the leader of all Iranians in that speech. And also the fact that the enduring slogan in the Islamic Republic has been death to America and death to Israel, never the development of Iran. And this was just repeated in the statement by Moshe Abu Al Khamenei.

[James]

That is such a good point. I think that's a really, really good point, because when I was reading this, I was thinking the whole framing of this is that this man contains in this speech, if indeed it is him, that he has the full support of the people behind him. And we know that not to be true. Well, I just want to quickly ask you, Baran, what are you hearing from inside Iran at the moment? Because it's so difficult, we, the BBC, are not able to get in and report from inside the country. What are you hearing about? Well, anything, to be honest. What can you tell us from inside the country?

[Barana Basi]

So the sentiments have been changing. When the protests happened a month ago, people believed that because thousands of people were killed, a lot of people believe that this regime can only be toppled through foreign help. And so a lot of people actually welcomed a military intervention to help topple the regime. And when the supreme Leader was killed on the first day of the strikes along with some of his commanders, there were celebrations on the streets. People were shouting from their windows, those who were too afraid to go out. But still some people braved the bombs and also the regime forces on the streets who were ready to open fire at them to celebrate. But the sentiments has been changing because a lot of infrastructure have been damaged. People are tired of the sound of bombings and the jets flying in low altitudes, and also the civilian casualties, mainly the civilian casualties that have been going up. Hospitals have been hit and also schools and the civilian infrastructure being demolished is something that people are really sensitive about. But there is also this fear that at any moment this war would end because of the rising oil prices and the face of the Iranian people. And the fact that so many people have died does not matter. The only thing that matters is the oil prices and that they are worried that they will be left with a regime that is a wounded beast at the moment and it would turn against its own people again. And what we've seen after every round of protests in Iran, so many people have been killed and that executions have happened and A lot of people are detained. And so the fear of even a brutal regime coming out of this war is very real. And people are worried about the day after this war is over.

[Jane Corbyn]

And everything about the speech indicates it's a continuation of what was there before his father's, in his father's time. It's a continuation of the rule of the, you know, the hard liners, the irgc. And certainly, certainly we're now seeing, you know, as Barack said, that we're now seeing reports out of American intelligence that they see no sign of the collapse of the leadership, that it's largely intact and there isn't really a risk of collapse, which must indicate that, you know, for the people of Iran, things are not going to change. Plus, the destruction that's happened, they're really walking a tightrope at the moment because the regime is not going to fall. The people are not going to rise up, as both President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have urged them to do. So what will they be left with when this new supreme leader, if he ever actually appears or if he actually ever is present, when he really takes the reins and essentially the Islamic Republican Guard are given free reign to be very, very tough?

[Alex]

And then, of course, at the same time, what we've got happening right now is that we've still got continued US And Israeli strikes in Tehran. We've got Israeli strikes in Lebanon. We've got Iranian strikes, apparently on shipping. And we've got reports on top of all of that that these British troops have come under attack from Iranian drones at a US Base in northern Iraq. Can you just sort of bring us up to date on where we are with what's currently happening?

[Jane Corbyn]

Well, we've seen a fresh wave of strikes every day. You hear President Trump or Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary, war secretary, saying today is going to be the biggest, you know, we're going to hit the hardest that you've ever seen. And they've said this for about the last three days. And the same with Israel. The message is coming from Israel. And Beirut has been really pounded. And we've seen more casualties there. We've seen blocks hit right on the beachfront, you know, right in downtown Beirut. So it's really, really tough. I think there are more casualties in Lebanon after Iran itself. The next highest number of casualties is in Lebanon. And, you know, now there's the targeting of national infrastructure and banks, first of all by the Americans and Israelis, the Bank Sepah, which is very much the IRGC bank. And now Iran has threatened to hit back at financial institutions in Israel and America. So we're seeing a ratcheting up and probably a widening and no diminution of the scale of attacks. But the question is, is Trump and Netanyahu hitting hard now in what might be the final days of the war? This is the prelude to stopping it, obviously, as we see oil, the oil price rising and as we've discussed, you know, what does that mean at the end of the day for the people of Iran?

[James]

And talking of the people of Iran, this should be a time of celebration. Is that right? Are you coming to the, to the New year?

[Barana Basi]

Yes. It doesn't feel like the new Year in south of Iran. A lot of people are saying that they are not really.

[James]

How do you call the new year?

[Barana Basi]

Nowruz.

[James]

Nowruz. What might it be like in other years?

[Barana Basi]

So the Iranian New Year, it starts, it's on the first day of spring. And so it's a time of visiting family members and celebrating the spring by setting a table that has symbols of the spring and a new life and the rebirth of nature. And people visit each other, visit family members. Well, this year, people have not been able to work because of the war and before that because of the protests and also because the Internet has been down. So a lot of businesses have been suffering. The economy is in a very bad way, and people cannot afford buying new items to celebrate the new year, to buy presents. And also it's the time when you buy new clothes for children. So none of that is happening. And also because there is a war happening. So people are trying to take shelter in Tehran and many other cities. If you see propaganda videos by the Revolutionary Guards, they show, they show underground cities where they are hiding their weapons, but there are no shelters made for the people. So people don't know where to hide. And they don't even. There are no sirens for the people to alert them that bombing is happening. So people only find out about that when a bomb has hit somewhere. So they are very terrified. There is no one even thinking about the New year at the moment. And so people are just trying to survive the current situation. And the regime is also trying to live to fight for another day.

[Alex]

Yeah, indeed. And Baran, thank you so much. Jane, thank you so much for talking us through all of that. Really, really appreciate your time.

[Jane Corbyn]

Thanks, Alex.

[Barana Basi]

Thank you for having me.

[James]

Now we've had a question from Kerry. Thanks very much, Kerry. On WhatsApp. And Kerry says, how might the war in the Middle east affect the war in Ukraine?

[Alex]

I mean, that is A great question, Kerry. So to try and get the answer, we thought we would call up. Who else? James Landale, who is in Kyiv at the moment and is going to try and help us unpick this. Hi, James.

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Hey, Alex.

[Alex]

So, James, just give us some ways of thinking about this. Is the war in Iran having an impact on the war in Ukraine?

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Well, what's been really interesting has been the slightly sort of mixed response, certainly from here in Kiev, about whether or not, you know, there are some positives and whether there are some negatives. The negatives are probably more obvious. So as a result of the war in Iran, in the Middle east, there has, as we've seen, there's been a surging oil price, and that helps Russia's war machine. Russia requires the highest possible price it can sell for its oil on the global markets. And even though there are sanctions and there are price caps and all manner of ways of trying to reduce the revenue Russia gets, if the basic price of crude oil goes up, then that fills Russia's coffers, that helps fuel its war machine, and that is a net positive for Russia. There's also the question about air defenses. If the Gulf countries are firing off all manner of air defense missiles and drones and whatever they can to keep their skies safe, that means there are less to use here. That means it's harder for Ukraine to buy air defenses if other countries are saying, well, my stocks are a little bit depleted or the price of them goes up. So I think there's a great awareness, particularly for air defense missiles, the really big expensive ones, Patriot missiles and things like that. The statistics are really hard to get accuracy here, but one statistic that has jumped out was a claim made by President Zelensky that in the first sort of week or so of the war in the Middle east, about 800 sort of substantial air defense missiles, mostly Patriots, had been fired off to defend Gulf countries and elsewhere in the region. And that's more than Ukraine has fired in the entire four years of its war here. So those are two negatives, but there are some positives. And I think that's where there's some really interesting debates going on. But overwhelmingly it is about what help Ukraine can give to the region in terms of offering not just cheap drones that can help the Gulf countries defend themselves, but also a way that Ukraine can sort of change its status, if you like, as being a sort of victim or a receiver of Western help to being a sort of independent security player that can help allies in their time of need.

[James]

So the short answer To Kenny's question, James, is that it is affecting Ukraine in lots of different ways. So let's try and break them down for newscasters and maybe we should focus first a little bit on Ukraine itself and then maybe come on to Russia and to Vladimir Putin. Because. Because we spoke to Katja Adler on Monday and Katja was telling us how important it is from her perspective in Brussels for European leaders to be walking the right line here in terms of their response to Iran because they want to keep Donald Trump on side in Ukraine. And I suppose if you think about the Ukrainian leader, President Zelensky, that is the case in spades for him. I mean, does he see an opportunity here to try to come to the U.S. aid?

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Well, President Zelenskyy was quick out of the blocks to support the US And Israeli military action against Iran. He tried to cast it as a continuation of a broader war against an axis of opponents, namely lumping Russia and Iran together, and effectively said, we're all fighting the same war, the same drones that fly over the skies of Kyiv, very similar type Iranian designed shaheds that we've seen so much of in recent days in the Gulf. So that was the initial response by Zelenskyy to try to sort of say we're all in the same boat here. Because as you say, both the Russians and the Ukrainians have a huge incentive to keep Donald Trump on side and therefore supporting Trump's military adventure. Militarism is something that I think that the Ukrainians here would very, very much want to do. But also, as I say, the Ukrainians think, is there an opportunity here now? And I think the fact that the Americans, as long as some European countries and some Gulf countries have asked Ukraine for help, the Ukrainians are specifically saying, how do we defend ourselves, particularly our military interests in the country of Jordan? How do we do that? That and Zelenskyy has made it very clear that he sent teams of advisors not just to the Gulf, but also to Jordan to help the Americans. And I think that is a really interesting sort of psychological moment of this conflict. On the one hand, I think when asked about this, Zelenskyy says this is quite a happy feeling to be on the, for the tables to be turned. But I also speak to Ukrainians here who say that there's a balance to be struck here. And, and I think they fear that there's a risk the government in Kyiv here becomes a little bit too smug about it and it risks alienating some of its allies by saying, oh, well, it's our turn now to advise you in a way that they're finding quite interesting. So I think there's a balance to be struck here about saying, well, you know, let's talk to the Americans, let's do some deals. Let's say to them very seriously, look, if we're going to give you our little interceptors, you guys need to sort of, you know, on the other foot, need to give us more Patriot missiles. And so those are the kind of conversations that are happening at the moment. But it's quite a fine line for Zelenskyy to walk.

[Alex]

It's interesting because you're talking there a lot about the technology that Ukraine has now become so experienced in using, because we've seen drones just totally change the way that warfare happens. And now that's sort of being experienced in the Gulf, which is where, where President Zelensky thinks he can kind of share some of that expertise. You've been out there, James, in Ukraine, seeing some of this technology in action, these sort of interceptors. What's it like? Describe what it, you know, the reality of seeing it all happen above you in the skies.

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Well, the thing is, it's remarkably basic. I mean, look, obviously it's relatively high tech, but essentially it's a cardboard box and it has an interceptor in it. You plug it all in together, you tighten it up, you put on a battery, and then you decide what kind of explosive you want to put in the, in the top of it. Then you launch it and, you know, you've got your little gizmo here and then you, you fly it up until you get close to the drone that you're trying to destroy. And then literally you're looking at your screen and you're flying it up until it hits and they destroy. That, though, is, is casting it as too much of a simplistic event because what the Ukrainians say here, they say, yeah, it's fine, we can hand over these drones and we can give them to the Middle east, that's fine. But what matters is the training, it's the expertise. It's the teaching of how do you fit these things into your military structure, into your air defense structure. Where do you have the data flowing from? How do you get the radar, how do you get the actual, the mobile units that are currently climbing the skies tracking these things? How do you get all of that data set centralized so that when you've got a mobile unit on the ground, which is basically a bunch of folk in some, you know, four by fours running around the countryside, they get out they get the drone ready and they're told, right, the drone. The drone will be coming over in half an hour. You get up, ready, you put it up into the air, you wait for it, and then. But that requires organization, structure. And this is what the Ukrainians are fantastic at. I think this is something that other countries are much less experienced about. So there is a. There's a complicated process of training and education to go with it. It's not just about, you know, shipping these things off to the Gulf.

[James]

We've become so used to talking to you, James, backwards and forwards to Kiev. You've been there a lot in the last few years. I almost think we're forgetting here you're in a war zone, or maybe I am. And I wonder if you can tell newscasters just in terms of. Of getting that access to this technology, speaking to Ukrainian soldiers who are actually fighting this war, and also just the experience, yourself and your own safety, you know, you are still in a war zone. What is it like there?

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Well, in terms of the immediate short term, I would say that it's been relatively stable here, not too noisy at night. And that in itself tells a story. The Russians do not want to distract Donald Trump by launching massive attacks here. Since the war began, there's been, I'd say, one relatively heavy attack on Ukraine. We infer from this a decision by the Russian high command just to tone things down a bit while the Americans are carrying out their military attacks on Iran. But as you say, yeah, this is a war zone. A couple of hours ago, there was another air raid, relatively sort of common activity. We're still a country. This is still a country under martial law. There are regulations about what you can report, about where you can go. But this is still a country, you know, that's now in the fifth year of this war, and life carries on as normal.

[Alex]

It's so interesting, James, just on that kind of point and the point you made earlier about how President Zelenskyy is sort of walking this fine line between being seen as somebody who might aid, you know, his Western allies with what's happening in the Gulf, but not being seen as kind of too cocky on that front. And that extraordinary stat, which I think just is a really helpful reminder about the perspective of all this that you mentioned, and I read in a piece you wrote for the BBC news website about the fact that Zelenskyy was talking about. About 800 Patriot missiles have been used in a matter of days in the Gulf, which was more than Ukraine had received during the entire war. I just sort of wonder how you think President Zelensky is treading that fine line between being the giver of aid, but also still needing that support from the US and others. Is he getting it right? Is that the sense of.

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

The answer to that is will be, you know, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. What deals he eventually does with the Gulf and the Americans and others and how he gets that balance right, because none of these deals have been. Have been done yet. We've been speaking to some of the defence manufacturers here and they've made it very, very clear that the government has told them no side deals. There's going to be a very much a central government control over this because on the one hand, Zelenskyy, as I say, wants to sell lots of cheap interceptors to a very, very keen, desperate Gulf market and the Americans, but at the same time, he wants to make sure that he does a deal so he gets money and also Interceptor missiles Patriots in return. But there's also, remember, the home front, the domestic politics of all of this. Zelenskyy does not want a get into a place where voters here in the streets of Kyiv and elsewhere, and also soldiers serving on the front line start asking fundamental questions about saying, well, why is the government handing out all of these interceptors to the Gulf when we need them here? And that's a very, very hard balance to strike. Now, if you talk to the defence manufacturers, they're pretty confident that they can scale up this production quickly once they get the orders, once they get the funds in place. But equally, I think the government will be very, very wary of facing accusations that somehow it's selling the shop to the Gulf and leaving Ukraine vulnerable to Russian attacks in the future.

[James]

What are the other implications then, James, for Russia and for President Putin in terms of his involvement or otherwise in the U. S Israeli war on Iran and his relationships, particularly with Washington. Where does all of this leave Putin?

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Well, as we've seen, at the beginning of the attacks, the Kremlin put out some, you know, moderately critical remarks about the attack in the war, but since then, it's been remarkably a sort of sotto voce response. I would say there's, you know, the Kremlin has been conspicuous in its silence, and that's because it's very clear the Russians want to stay out of this as much as possible, because Putin's primary aim appears to be keeping on side with Donald Trump. And so, even though some Western analysts have been saying, oh, this is terrible for Vladimir Putin because you know, he's lost his ally in Syria, he's lost his ally in Venezuela. Now he's lost his ally in, in Iran. That, you know, sort of this, this axis of support that Russia has been part of, you know, is crumbling. Actually, essentially, Putin's central prize is this war. This is what he's focused on. So at the moment, it seems that Vladimir Putin does not want to get into a place where he's incredibly critical of the Americans. And to a certain extent, you know, that's paying off, because whenever the reporters in Washington have said to the administration or to Donald Trump, look, what about all these reports about Russia helping Iran with its targeting? The American administration has just sort of dismissed that as well. You know, that's not important. So to that extent, it appears as if Putin's strategy is working.

[Alex]

It's interesting. I was Steve Rosenberg, the BBC's Russia editor. He's written a bit piece about the idea that actually President Putin there may be some diplomatic and economic gains for Russia from the war in Iran, because we've already seen President Trump talking about the possibility of easing some sanctions around Russian energy. And I think there's even been a temporary wave of sanctions on India, which has been buying Russian energy. So is there scope, actually, aside from the kind of diplomatic and aspect for an economic benefit for Russia from all of this?

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

Well, it seems pretty clear that the administration in the States are really worried by high and rising oil prices. They've, they've been very, very keen to try and put out messages to try and calm markets and reassure the oil world. It hasn't worked so far. And I think that you, you know, even, you know, if the G7 and others agree to flood the market with a bit of oil, that hasn't changed much. So I think the Americans will be looking for other ways of reducing pressures on oil prices. And if that means lifting sanctions on the Russians, clearly it's something that the administration has or is considering because they've been talking about it so much so that President Zelensky here has warned against it, made it very explicit, saying, saying it would be a huge blow to Ukraine if sanctions were lifted. The sanctions that have been lifted so far on India are just a temporary waiver, 30 days. And it just applies to Russian oil that's already in ships. It's already sort of out there heading to its port. And it's temporary. The Americans claiming that it won't actually have that much impact to the war effort. But I think, I think it certainly worried policymakers here in Kyiv just One

[James]

big picture question then, James, you say there that Washington is saying, look, this idea that Russia is helping with targeting of US and Israeli forces in this war doesn't really matter. But is that right? Or actually are we underplaying the extent to which, I mean, we're also talking about Russian tech, we are told in the strike on the RAF base in Cyprus. So are we underplaying the extent to which there's a potential ultimately for some sort of proxy conflict, or is there a proxy conflict going on with Russia and Iran actually on one side and the US and the UK and Israel to one degree or another? Actually, on the other hand, I'm not

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

sure we're quite that far yet. I mean, I personally have no evidence to support the claims about Russia involvement in targeting or helping the Iranians with targeting, intelligence and things like that. But there have been reports suggesting that, and these are not reports that have been categorically denied or disproved. So that they're out there. I think at the moment, the key thing to remember is that Russia does not have a formal defense alliance with Iran. Yes, they are allies, but there is no defense component to that relationship. And it's always been a partnership of convenience rather than ideology. And if you see the way, if you remember the way that Vladimir Putin dropped his support for President Assad, Assad's regime in Syria and withdrew, you know, with hardly a wiped tear in his eye, shows that these relationships tend to be pragmatic rather than ideological. And I think that's how most of the sort of Russia, Iranian specialists characterize the nature of that relationship. I think overwhelmingly Putin and Russia's strategic aim here, here is to try and stay out of this war so that it can maintain good relations with the United States, so that the United States continues to put pressure on Kyiv to fold and more pressure on Europe to persuade Kyiv to fold. And I think that remains the Kremlin strategy here.

[Alex]

Well, it seems to me that the short answer to Kerry's question is that the war in Iran is having all sorts of potential consequences for, for the war in Ukraine. But thank you so much for helping us just to unpick a bit of it, James. Really appreciate it.

[James]

Yeah, thanks, James.

[Fat Boy Slim (mentioned) / Unnamed Speaker]

My pleasure. Thanks so much.

[James]

Thanks, Kerry, for your question as well. Keep those questions coming to us here at newscast. That's all for this episode.

[Alex]

Bye, bye, bye. Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.

[Newscast Outro Host]

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