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- [00:00]
Adam Fleming
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk.
- [00:06]
Ray Winstone
Hello, it's Ray Winstone. I'm here to tell you about my podcast on BBC Radio 4, History's Toughest Heroes. I've got stories about the pioneers, the rebels, the outcasts who define tough.
- [00:21]
Podcast Clip Voice
And that was the first time that anybody ever ran a car up that fast with no tires on. It almost feels like your eyeballs are going to come out of your head.
- [00:29]
Ray Winstone
Tough enough for you? Subscribe to History's Toughest Heroes wherever you get your podcast.
- [00:38]
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal
Hello.
- [00:39]
Adam Fleming
It's that time of the year where everyone says, oh, everyone's coughing and spluttering and off sick from work. There's a lot of it going about. Normally I'm quite skeptical because that's anecdotes rather than data, but today, NHS England said we are facing an unprecedented situation where with flu, we will dig into the details about what makes it so unprecedented on this episode of Newscast, Newscast.
- [01:02]
BBC Ad Voice
Newscast from the BBC.
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Hugh Pym
Fat Boy Slim and me in the.
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Adam Fleming
Classroom doing our violin lessons. I was the tattletail in the classroom.
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Ray Winstone
Can I have an apology, please?
- [01:09]
Adam Fleming
I trust almost nobody that Daddy has.
- [01:12]
Hugh Pym
To sometimes use strong language.
- [01:13]
Adam Fleming
Next time in mosque I feel the.
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Vanessa Buschschluter
Lulu with no salulu.
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Podcast Clip Voice
Take me down the Downing Street.
- [01:19]
Adam Fleming
Let's go have a tour.
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Hugh Pym
Blimey.
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Adam Fleming
Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio. And health bosses in England are warning of the worst, worst case scenario for this time of year for flu and the nhs, at least in England. They are quoting figures for the number of patients in hospital with flu in England each day. Last week, which was 2660. That is up 55% on the week before and is the highest it's ever been for this time of year. And the reason they're saying this is unprecedented and the worst case scenario is because it's a combination of things like this slightly different strain of flu that is circulating or when this is happening, versus when most people have managed to get their flu jab. And then you throw into that the impending strike by resident doctors, formerly known as junior doctors, which is due to take place next week. So there is lots of data to dive into and lots of things to look at. And the people who are going to help us do that are the BBC's health editor, Hugh Pym, who's here in the studio. Hello, Hugh.
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Hugh Pym
Hi, Adam.
- [02:20]
Adam Fleming
And also joining us on the line from the UK Health Security Agency is Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal. Hello, Dr. Jamie hi. Right, Hugh. People will see lots of quite scary sounding headlines. Give us the responsible version about what we think the situation is with flu.
- [02:35]
Hugh Pym
Well, the situation is. The reality of it is it is unprecedented for this time of year. That's important to say. And based on records that go back about five years, so we don't have a comparison before that, but certainly for November and now into early December hospital cases. We've got the latest figures now from NHS England. Just over 2006. 600 patients with flu in hospitals. That is quite a lot higher than what it normally would be and is up something like 55% week on week. And the worry about it coming early is what does it tell us about what the peak's going to be now? The most recent record peak over those five or six years or so was about 5,400 hospital cases. So we're still short of that. But the worry is it's come a bit early. Does that mean it's going to be the same sort of peak as previous winters, or a bigger peak, or a sort of plateau? It's the uncertainty there. And because it's come a bit earlier, fewer people have been vaccinated and it's a strain that has proved to be a little bit more serious for particularly older, older patients. So all of that adding up is causing the concern, but there's still quite a few more weeks to go and more data and who knows how it might turn out?
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Adam Fleming
So, Jamie, tell us about this new strain then that's got people like you so concerned.
- [03:59]
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal
Yeah. So the flu virus is constantly changing and it evolves every year from what we've seen in the previous season. This year, the virus has evolved a bit more than it. More rapidly than it usually does. And what this means is that as a population, we have a bit less immunity than we usually do. And that's why we've been a bit more concerned about flu this year, that it may have that bigger impact. As Hugh says, we're also seeing H3N2, which does typically affect older people a bit more and cause more hospitalisations. So that's another reason for concern this year.
- [04:39]
Adam Fleming
And then just talk about that point, about the timing of how many people are vaccinated, because you look at the statistics of vaccination and actually the numbers of people who've been getting the flu jab looks quite good. So why is that an issue?
- [04:52]
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal
Well, I mean, in fact, as you say, people have been taking up the vaccine and we're seeing good numbers, good coverage rates. The fact that the season starts early can impact on that. So if the season starts so early that people haven't been vaccinated, then that is a problem. But on the other hand, you don't want to get vaccinated too early, because we know that the effectiveness of vaccines drops over the course of the season. So, in fact, people that have been vaccinated in November, coming into sort of early December, will be well protected against flu. And we've seen some evidence of the effectiveness of vaccines already this season, and we know that they're proving effective despite this evolved strain. So I don't have particular concerns around timing of vaccine. Obviously, if you haven't been vaccinated already, it's really important you do get vaccinated. It does take a bit of time for that immunity to develop, so around two weeks, typically. So for people to ensure they're protected ahead of Christmas, really important that they get vaccinated in the next next week, really.
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Adam Fleming
And is the version of the vaccine that we're using this year, because it. Because it changes and is updated every year, is it effective against this new strain, or is that taken us a bit by surprise?
- [06:18]
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal
I mean, it did take us a little bit by surprise early in the season in that the strain had evolved quite a bit since the vaccines were selected or the strains to go into the vaccine were selected. So just to give a bit of background on the process, so the WHO each year in February will decide on which strains to recommend for the vaccine manufacturers to base their vaccines on. And this is according to what has been circulating in the most recent data, so in our last season, and also what's been circulating in the southern hemisphere. They then do that again for the southern hemisphere in September, and in that September meeting, they noted that the virus had evolved quite a bit and changed since the vaccine strains had been selected. So that did cause a bit of concern. But we have since looked at the effectiveness of vaccines against clinical disease. So how well they're protecting against people going to hospital, being admitted to hospital or going to ae. And we've seen that they are working pretty much as well as what we typically see by the end of a flu season. Okay. Obviously, it's relatively early days, so we will continue to monitor that going forwards, but at the moment it's very encouraging and the vaccines are working well and the best protection that we have, really, against what can be quite a nasty virus.
- [07:39]
Adam Fleming
And Hugh, how does the NHS feel in terms of resilience? Are they set up to handle this?
- [07:46]
Hugh Pym
Well, they should be. I mean, flu has been around for a long time and the NHS has coped with it in previous years, I think. The problem is, each year you get more and more attendances and more patients coming through the doors of ae. So there's more pressures generally with respiratory viruses. And if you've got a slightly nastier version of flu, with more hospitalisations at the margins, it's going to put on pressure just when you don't need it, because the pressure will build. Typically in the run up to Christmas and New Year, it's always really bad early in the new year. And one hospital chief executive I've been speaking to said they know that Monday, January 5th is going to be a really difficult day in the days after, because people are back after the bank holiday. GPs tend to reopen for normal service, etc. Rather than out of hours. So if they've got this real strain in terms of pressure now, they're slightly dreading the next few weeks. So it doesn't take much just at the margins to sort of really increase the tension in hospitals.
- [08:50]
Adam Fleming
And, Jamie, let's do the public service broadcasting bit now. Just remind us the difference between a cold, the flu and having Covid and how people should sort of think of those three different things.
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Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal
Yeah, I mean, flu can. It is typically a much more severe disease, so it can cause hospitalizations and it can cause deaths in particular, compared to the common cold. And in terms of the symptoms that people will experience, they'll experience those respiratory symptoms, so cough, shortness of breath, but you also tend to get aching tiredness and generally with quite a severe fever. Obviously, it affects different people in different ways, and there's a whole spectrum. It can cause mild disease, it can cause more severe disease, but it's a bit more concerning than common cold Covid. Similarly, the similar presentation, there are some slight differences, such as the change in taste and smell that you can get with COVID but it can cause severe disease as well, in particular in older age groups or those with clinical conditions that, for example, cause immunosuppression. So it's something that if you're in an eligible group, if you're in a risk group, then it's really important that you get vaccinated against.
- [10:08]
Adam Fleming
And when should people seek medical attention if they've got the flu really badly?
- [10:14]
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal
Well, the NHS has got some guidance on this, so have a look at the NHS website for information on when to see your GP or go to hospital. But in general, if it's mild without a high fever, then it can generally be managed at home if people are starting to feel particularly, particularly unwell with shortness of breath and you're struggling to breathe, or if you've got a really high fever and things aren't resolving after a number of days, then it's important that you get in touch with your GP or with NHS 111.
- [10:47]
Adam Fleming
And Hugh, some people listening to this will be tempted to crack open an old packet of face masks from the COVID era, and then other people listening will be horrified about the idea of having to wear a face mask again. What's the way of thinking about that?
- [10:59]
Hugh Pym
Well, this issue has cropped up in the last few days, hasn't it? Because Daniel Elkerley's chief executive of NHS providers, came out with a quote in answer to a question saying, look, if you're traveling on public transport, you're in a public space and you're coughing and sneezing, you really ought to wear a mask. And, you know, implying it's your responsibility to do so. Now, there's a bit of confusion because I think people, some people thought that this was the NHS telling people to wear masks. And he absolutely wasn't doing that in some senses. He was just saying the obvious, which is in line, as Jamie, I'm sure, will agree with UKHSA guidelines, but it's caused a lot of discussion around whether it's just left to people's own responsibility. That's very much the government line. Oh, no, we're not forcing people to wear masks. It's sensible if they think that's necessary. Some hospitals are saying that visitors should wear masks and there's more mask wearing because of flu, but it's very much sort of on a case by case basis there.
- [11:54]
Adam Fleming
I mean, Jamie, are we just back in. Make sure you wash your hands quite regularly territory?
- [11:59]
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal
I mean, it's a virus that can be transmitted from person to person, so there's sensible precautions that you can take to minimise that risk of transmission, in particular if you're in contact with elderly people or people that might be more vulnerable for other reasons. So things like staying at home, if you do have respiratory symptoms and you do have fever, as best as possible, using tissues, disposing of those tissues, quickly washing your hands on a regular basis, and if you do need to go out, then of course you can consider wearing a mask. But, yeah, as you say, there's no mandate around that.
- [12:33]
Adam Fleming
And Hugh, we talked about the resilience or otherwise of the nhs. One of the things that will affect that in the next few weeks is there's going to be another strike by junior doctors, now known as resident doctors. Just remind us where that dispute has got to. And what that strike might look like if it goes ahead?
- [12:49]
Hugh Pym
Well, it's got to a rather curious state of affairs because the strike was announced to start in England on Wednesday 17th December at 7am and then last five days, and both sides were sort of trading blows, Wes treating, saying it was completely unacceptable and so on. And the BMA say they were going ahead. Nothing appeared to be happening. But it seems, and I think we knew this, that there were sort of back channels between the government and the bma, which continued talking to each other, and some talks that were kept very much under the radar, suddenly resulting on Wednesday evening, Wes Streeting going to the Commons with this new offer to do with training places. We can dwell on that in a minute. But he said, look, here's a new offer. I really want doctors to vote for it. And this strike could at least get called off or postponed. The BMA have said that they will put this to members through an online survey and find out really how they feel about it. There's no new money, but there's more training places and they'll get a result in terms of that survey by Monday lunchtime. And based on that, they will either postpone the strike and then have a full vote on the offer, or say, we haven't got enough of positive feedback, we'll go ahead. Now, that is a bit of a problem, because if the strike starting on Wednesday and you call it off on Monday, you've already canceled a load of operations and appointments. And that really got Wes Streeting going. He was pretty frustrated by that.
- [14:10]
Adam Fleming
And it is interesting that in all the NHS England's communications about the flu, the second thing they then say is, oh, and there's a doctor strike coming up, which will make the situation worse. It's a kind of mixture of two things going on there in their communications, the medical and the political.
- [14:23]
Hugh Pym
Yes. I mean, they were making clear before the new offer that it was the worst possible time of year to be having a strike just ending two days before Christmas Eve, when pressure's building up anyway. And now you've got this flu surge. They said it was really, you know, pretty unfair of the BMA to be doing that. It would affect patients. That being said, emergency and urgent care will be very much open, staffed by consultants. And the BMA argument is, look, even before industrial action, the NHS was really stretched and you can't just blame that. But, yes, it's part of, I think, part of the rhetoric that's been been seen on both sides, and in terms of the.
- [15:00]
Adam Fleming
The surprise offer from Wes Streets and the Health Secretary. A couple of days ago, we got a message. In fact, it wasn't even a couple of days ago, it was only yesterday. So much has happened in the interim. Newscaster Ellie got in touch via WhatsApp saying, Please, can you actually explain the offer that has been made by Wes treating to the resident doctors? Ellie says she feels like there's a lot of misleading information around there.
- [15:18]
Hugh Pym
I will try and be clear on it, but it does get a bit convoluted. There's no new headline pay offer and that's been one of the key issues. As you know, that's not included. There's some money for exam fees and financial costs incurred by medical students. But the new bit is over these training places. Now, what that means is you can be a newly qualified doctor, you do your two foundation years, then you want to get on a pathway towards a specialist area like anesthetics or emergency medicine or surgery, and you need a training place to then progress through the next few years and get to become a consultant. And the BMA and their members have been reporting some doctors finishing the foundation years and they can't get a job, they can't get on a training place and they're left having to locum or to be unemployed for a bit, which the BMA said was completely unacceptable. So Wes, treating in an offer that was turned down in November, said, okay, I'll create 2,000 more places, training places, over the next few years, up from a thousand originally planned, that was rejected, and now he says it'll be 4,000 training places. And just to give an indication, there were 10,000 in total this year, 4,000 more over three years. The other thing he's saying is I will go to Parliament with legislation to ensure that employers, NHS employers, can give priority to UK medical students who've then gone into foundation years. And this has been one of the big issues that because of visa rules changing in 2019, you've got a whole lot more doctors from outside the UK applying for these training places perfectly legitimately and some trusts feeling we can't discriminate against people who come from somewhere else. So where Streetings legislation is supposed to deal with that. Be very interesting to see how that plays out. Yeah.
- [17:02]
Adam Fleming
And also if all of that, how that compares with one big number, which would be a pay rise, we shall see very soon. Jamie, I'm going to give you the last word on flu. I mean, you're a consultant epidemiologist. During the COVID era, we were all kind of amateur epidemiologists to some extent. Give us some just things to think about as we look at the flu numbers over the next few weeks. That could help us to either be more concerned or less concerned. Give us an insight into what you'll be looking at and how you'll be analyzing it.
- [17:31]
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal
I mean, I think the first point is that it's a very different situation to Covid. I mean, we do see flu every season. We've got more, more of a concern this year because of the slightly changed virus and the early season. But I think the main things that we're going to be looking out for is really those changes in older adults in particular that tend to be affected more by flu. So we'll be keeping a close eye on positivity rates among those tested for flu and hospitalisation rates in particular, and how that impacts on the nhs.
- [18:04]
Adam Fleming
We will keep an eye out for them as well. Thank you very much, Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal from the UK Health Security Agency. Thank you. And Hugh, thanks to you too.
- [18:12]
Hugh Pym
Thanks very much, Adam. Always a pleasure.
- [18:21]
Ray Winstone
Hello, it's Ray Winstone. I'm here to tell you about my podcast on BBC Radio 4, History's Toughest Heroes. I got stories about the pioneers, the rebels, the outcasts who define tough.
- [18:36]
Podcast Clip Voice
And that was the first time that anybody ever ran a car up that fast with no tires on. It almost feels like your eyeballs are going to come out of your head.
- [18:44]
Ray Winstone
Tough enough for you? Subscribe to History's Toughest Heroes wherever you get your podcast.
- [18:52]
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- [19:23]
Adam Fleming
And today we've had two big news stories about Venezuela. The first is that the key opposition leader in Venezuela, Maria Karina Machado, made a surprise appearance in Norway to pick up the Nobel Peace Prize on Wednesday night. And simultaneously we got news that an elite unit of the US military had seized an oil tanker in the Caribbean which they claim was carrying illegal exports of Venezuelan oil, which seems like quite an escalation of some of the stuff that the US has been doing in relation to Venezuela. Anyway, so we thought we would tie those two stories up together by two people who know them very well because here in the newscast studio, fresh from Oslo, where she's interviewed Maria Carina Machado, is my colleague from BBC News, Lucy Hawkings. Hi, Lucy.
- [20:10]
Lucy Hawkings
Hi, Adam.
- [20:11]
Adam Fleming
And please welcome Vanessa Bush Schluter, who is the Latin America editor for BBC Online. Welcome to Newscast.
- [20:16]
Lucy Hawkings
Thank you.
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Adam Fleming
Right, we've got two kind of story strands here. What should we do first? The Nobel Prize or this oil tanker being seized? Who wants to go first?
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Vanessa Buschschluter
I think the Nobel Prize, because that's what came first. Right.
- [20:26]
Adam Fleming
Okay. So, Lucy, just explain the last couple of days you've had.
- [20:29]
Lucy Hawkings
So I haven't slept. I've come straight here. Adam, you'll be pleased to know, to be on newscast from Gatwick Airport. Quick change of clothes, and here I am. Because we had just a roller coaster couple of days in Oslo, The BBC were promised this exclusive interview, the first international interview with the Nobel Peace Laureate. And then in the morning, when the cameras were ready, we were good to go. We all of a sudden heard from the Nobel Committee that not only was she not in Oslo, they didn't know where she was.
- [20:56]
Adam Fleming
Right, right.
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Lucy Hawkings
So huge amount of concern. Everyone was talking about it. Where could she possibly be, what's going on? And that her daughter was going to accept the Peace Prize on her behalf and also deliver the speech that she had written. So we kept the cameras set up. You know, we were hoping. And then I have a contact in her team, and she and I started messaging, and she said, you know, we think it's gonna happen, but we can't give you any details about where she is or what's gonna happen or what time this can happen. So it wasn't until midnight that we were then told at the hotel, the Grand Hotel in Oslo, this is where all the Peace Prize laureates come to and stay, that very famous balcony, that they come, too. I was actually sitting on the bed balcony, waiting for her to arrive, taking photos.
- [21:40]
Adam Fleming
You know, it's actually a hotel room.
- [21:43]
Lucy Hawkings
It is actually.
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Adam Fleming
It's not like some special like.
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Lucy Hawkings
But it's quite special. No, no. There's pictures of the laureates from, you know, all the years gone by on the wall, and it says Nobel Suite on the door outside. And there were security guards everywhere. And, you know, it had that air.
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Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal
Yeah.
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Lucy Hawkings
Something special. And also the big banquet was happening, so there were people in evening gowns swanning around talking about Venezuelan politics. Anyway, we were told, no, we still can't confirm whether or not she's arrived. And I said, look, I've just spoken to a security guard who saw her. We know she's here.
- [22:12]
Adam Fleming
She's here.
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Lucy Hawkings
Yeah, it's gonna happen. So we had to keep on waiting. And then, you know, we got there was a knock on the door and she came. And it was incredible because there she was. And we'd been waiting, and they'd shut the blinds to the balcony. Security risk. She's not gonna go out. But outside, and it was 2 in the morning, were hundreds of people waiting to see her. And they'd. In the evening with, you know, flags and candles and chanting and singing, and they wanted to see her. And of course, the first thing she did is shake my hand and say, I want to go out and greet everyone.
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Vanessa Buschschluter
That's what she did.
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Adam Fleming
Oh, right. So she then went and plunged into the crowd.
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Lucy Hawkings
She plunged onto the balcony, stood there and waved, and then came back in and said, I'm not going to do the interview now. I'm going to go down and see people.
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Adam Fleming
Right?
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Lucy Hawkings
So down she went. Meanwhile, I'm doing lives on the BBC News channel with which I love this one particular shot where the cameras in the crowd were looking up and you could see me in the balcony, on the balcony, doing my light. And she was down below. And I think, for her, this is a woman who has been in hiding for 16 months. And she said to me, I haven't touched people. I haven't hugged people. And now her mum is there, her kids are there. She's able to kind of snuggle into them and touch them. And then in the crowd were not only her friends, but all of these supporters, people that she knew. So it was really moving to watch her in the crowd. And then she came back up the stairs ready to do the interview. And I have to say, this was a moment where I thought, do I go there with her? Because as she sat down, I realized that the whole side of her face had a rash on it. And her makeup had come off. And it had come off. Cause she had literally been hugging so many people, right? She'd got a rash on her face. And so I said to her, would you mind if we did something about your makeup? And she said, well, I don't really have any. And I said, I do, right? So there I am kneeling on the ground in front of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate with my makeup brushes, doing her makeup.
- [24:07]
Adam Fleming
And then you dive into the conversation. And one of the questions you asked was just about her extraordinary journey to Norway. And we can hear a bit of that now.
- [24:14]
Maria Corina Machado
Just for posting news about the Nobel Prize, you will get imprisoned. And if they go looking for you, and they don't find you in your house, they will take your family, even children, in prison. So they had said that I'm a terrorist, that I have to be in jail for the rest of my life, and they're looking for me. So certainly leaving Venezuela today in these circumstances is very, very dangerous. So I just want to say today that I'm here because many men and women risked their lives in order for me to arrive in Oslo. And I came here on behalf of them and the millions of anonymous Venezuelan heroes to receive the prize and to take it back to them, because it's theirs.
- [25:19]
Adam Fleming
And, Vanessa, for people who don't know the Machado backstory as well as you two do, just explain why she's under such a level of threat.
- [25:26]
Vanessa Buschschluter
She's under threat because she has been one of the most outspoken critics of the Venezuelan President, Nicolas Maduro, and the man who was in power before him, Hugo Chavez, and who was the mentor of Nicolas Maduro. And she did an extraordinary thing. She managed to unite the divided opposition of Venezuela. The opposition in Venezuela for decades has been driven by infighting, by rivalries, by envy and briefing against each other. And she decided to hold a primary ahead of the last presidential election. And she went through the tiniest of villages, traveled the length and breadth of Venezuela at a time when there was, of course, a short or fuel, so it was not easy to go to these villages. And she shook so many hands and hugged so many people and was given so many rosaries, because that is one of the things that she alluded to in your interview, that people hand them. Hand her their rosaries as a symbol of hope and also of their admiration for her. And when that primary was held, she got 93%. So 93% of the people who turned out for this primary backed her as the presidential candidate. The result was that she was then barred from running by the authorities, which are controlled by the Maduro government. And she then backed Edmundo Gonzalez. The election. The opposition knew that there was a high chance that the Maduro government would try and rig the election. But Maria Corina Machado, before she really delved into politics, had a group, a civil society group called Sumate, which means join me or join us. And that was an electoral monitoring group and pro democracy group. And so her knowledge from that, she used to get people to be election observers at all the polling stations. Elections in Venezuela are done with an electronic system. So you press a button and then there's a receipt printed out. So the election observers collected copies of those Receipts. So when after the election, the Maduro dominated electoral council declared him the winner, she and her group and her supporters were able to provide the voting tallies showing that according to those voting tallies, and they had voting tallies from 80% of all the polling stations. That voting tally, you know, it was, I mean, it was so many of them. Those showed that Edmundo Gonzalez had won with 66%. And those voting tallies are now safely kept in a bank in Panama.
- [28:24]
Adam Fleming
And so does she have a plan for what to do now?
- [28:27]
Lucy Hawkings
Well, one of the questions that I asked her is that she's branded a fugitive by the Maduro government and they say they'll arrest her. She is definitely concerned that when she is in Venezuela that she will be disappeared, which is what happens to opponents of the Maduro government or critics of the government. But she said she's going to go back that, you know, Adam, we mentioned how she got out. I mean, the speculation is that she had to pass through 10 military checkpoints wearing a wig and a disguise. She got a fishing boat, private jet to Norway. She wouldn't confirm any of that. This is elaborate and dangerous stuff. Getting back in is going to be really hard as well. But she knows that if she stays away, she risks becoming irrelevant, that she has to be in the country to continue with her activism. And of course, there's also all the speculation that Vanessa knows about, about what deals might have been done with the Trump administration, what could happen next. Does she actually think that she is moments away from being in government, being in power in Venezuela?
- [29:23]
Adam Fleming
Well, Vanessa, we'll talk about the Trump administration's actions in a second. But in terms of her, I mean, does she have the backing of the U.S. does that mean the U.S. might be able to intervene? Maduro gets overthrown, she gets in.
- [29:37]
Vanessa Buschschluter
Well, I think because she and Edmundo Gonzalez managed to prove to so many people who, you know, they actually uploaded those voting tallies and the Carter center also said that those were the real results because she's been able to prove that many governments around the world recognize her. And Edmundo Gonzalez, who stood in for her when she was barred from running as the legitimate president and her as the leader of that opposition, no need.
- [30:12]
Lucy Hawkings
For a transitional government, no need for new elections. It should be there.
- [30:16]
Vanessa Buschschluter
And quite often you hear analysts saying, well, maybe there should be a transition and maybe there should be fresh elections. And actually the Colombian government has suggested, but Venezuelans who voted want that vote respected. They said, we did vote. We did vote at the end of July, 2024. And that is what should be respected. So there's no need for any transition. And they think that if there were to be a transition and fresh elections would be held, that maybe the Maduro government would just find a new way of rigging that election.
- [30:51]
Adam Fleming
And does she think winning the prize is a sort of a tactic that could help to restore democracy in Venezuela or 100%? Yeah.
- [30:59]
Lucy Hawkings
I mean, that's why she's made the dangerous journey. She knows the international attention this brings is gonna work. She also knows, I mean, millions of Venezuelans around the world see this as a huge moment of hope. And they'd have had hope for a very long time. And Vanessa will tell you that, you know, when Maduro was elected, many people thought he wouldn't last for six months. He's still there. But throughout this whole time, they've had hope. And this is really this huge stamp of international approval on what they believe on, you know, their opposition to the Maduro government.
- [31:30]
Adam Fleming
So, Vanessa, other events in Venezuela or off the coast of Venezuela, tell us about this oil tanker that was seized by this elite American military unit. What do we think has happened there?
- [31:40]
Vanessa Buschschluter
So I think the Trump administration was looking for new ways to put the pressure on the Maduro government. I mean, they've had this massive deployment of military fighter jets and the world's largest aircraft carrier off the coast. It's been a show of force. It's been an impressive show of force, but it has not dislodged Maduro. So now they're going after what they think will hurt him most, which is tightening the screws on his finances. Now, a lot of money in the Venezuelan government coffers comes from oil. So targeting an oil tanker makes sense. And by all accounts, this oil tanker was not only sailing under a false flag, under Guyanese flag. The Guyanese government has already come out and said that was a false flag. It also looks like it was what is called spoofing. So it was hiding its location and pretending it was in a different location. So there were lots of red flags. So that's why they targeted this oil tanker. And that, of course, does hurt Maduro in a very serious way, because in order to keep people loyal, he needs money.
- [32:57]
Adam Fleming
And does this seem like a big escalation? You talked about the building pressure, but in terms of an actual thing to do, was was this operation an escalation compared to other. Because we've heard lots of reports about ships being being bombed.
- [33:10]
Vanessa Buschschluter
Judging by the anger within the Maduro government, I would say yes. They've called it piracy, they've called it outright theft in a way that the strikes on those small vessels that allegedly carried drugs didn't. So, yes, it is an escalation.
- [33:27]
Lucy Hawkings
And the speculation now, Adam as well, is there going to be strikes on Venezuelan territory.
- [33:31]
Adam Fleming
And in terms of Maduro, how he's acted throughout all of this, we can play this clip of him at a rally on Wednesday and I'll get your reaction to this. Vanessa.
- [33:41]
Maria Corina Machado
Don't worry, be happy. Don't worry, be happy.
- [33:57]
Lucy Hawkings
Just speaks.
- [33:59]
Maria Corina Machado
Not one.
- [34:00]
Adam Fleming
So for people who don't really know much about Venezuela or Nicolas Maduro, what is going on there, he's clowning around.
- [34:07]
Vanessa Buschschluter
That's what he does. As I said, his mentor was Hugo Chavez and he's been trying to imitate Hugo Chavez, who had a way with the people. You know, he was a man of the people and he really connected with people.
- [34:19]
Adam Fleming
He'd do five hour long speeches.
- [34:21]
Vanessa Buschschluter
Absolutely. Maduro hasn't quite managed to have that same connection with people. But he does like to take to the stage and dance. And there have been rap songs composed around his Peace Not War, and he sings them all the time and he likes to dance salsa with his wife on stage. But I think one thing to notice is that a few of these events recently, yes, there were crowds, but a they were held at Fuerte Tiuna, which is a military fort inside Caracas. So security would have been very tight. And also public servants are often bused to these events. They have to go to these events or risk losing their jobs. So you can see, you know, the photos look impressive. There's crowds, but it doesn't mean that everybody is there voluntarily or is really as supportive as it looks.
- [35:13]
Lucy Hawkings
And Marina Karina Machado definitely thinks that the tide has turned, that even members of the military and the police are on her side now, that there is this sort of not only all those that voted for the opposition, but people within Maduro's inner circle who, you know, don't support him anymore.
- [35:28]
Vanessa Buschschluter
But I think one mistake that we shouldn't make is when you see him dancing and clowning around and speaking very broken English, and he actually makes a virtue out of that. He is a canny politician. He came through the ranks of the trade union movement and he fights dirty. He's a bit of a street fighter in political terms. And he can play people and he has played people in the past. As I said, there were several attempts at negotiating with him. Some of them were overseen by the Norwegians, who have a lot of Experience in negotiations. One was overseen by the Vatican. And he managed to fool them all. He manages to promise things, and then he doesn't act on them.
- [36:15]
Lucy Hawkings
The greatest fear, Adam, I think, that people have is that after all of this, the sense that we are at a crossroads, this is a real moment for Venezuela, that. That she has momentum. The real fear is that nothing's going to change, you know, that this moment's going to be lost.
- [36:30]
Vanessa Buschschluter
And I think if the warships, the US Warships were to leave and if Trump turns his attention to something else and he doesn't do anything more and leaves it at that, then I think Maduro could be there for the next 30 years.
- [36:43]
Adam Fleming
And also, Lucy, with your view of, like, doing the news for the entire world as opposed to just the small corner of the world that newscast is usually aimed at. Explain, like, why Venezuela is such a big subject, like, why do so many people care about what's happening there?
- [36:59]
Lucy Hawkings
For many, many reasons. But the human story of this, for starters, I think with the Nobel Peace Prize, the fact that it's controversial as well, I think we should mention that not everyone agrees that she should have been awarded this prize. This is what happens when you give the Nobel Peace Prize to a politician. There are opponents, there are people who think that some of the warmongering and the language and the talk of perhaps military strikes on Venezuela is completely at odds with a Nobel Peace Prize, which should be awarded to pacifists. Much easier to do so if you're a dissident or an exile. There are those that find this controversial, but also, I think, just the bigger picture of migration as well. How many Venezuelans live around the world, live in America, Those that want to go home. President Trump has attacked the Venezuelan community over what he calls narco terrorism. And the whole thing with Venezuelan gangs in America, it's been in the headlines a lot recently.
- [37:49]
Vanessa Buschschluter
Recently, yes. And she's certainly also made friends with people who are controversial, like the Argentine president, Javier Milei, who was there. Exactly. Who was there. And she dedicated, or at least Trump said that she dedicated her Nobel Peace Prize to him. Of course, he had been coveting that price for himself. And she did. Well, the two had a phone call after she was first awarded the prize, and Trump said, she's a very nice lady and she dedicated the price to me. Of course, for Venezuelans who support her, that is a way to get what they want. They need Trump on their side. So a bit of flattery. What's to lose?
- [38:32]
Adam Fleming
I mean, Lucy, just last question to you. When you're hanging around in Oslo, home of the Nobel Peace Prize. Is everyone speculating about whether it's going to go to Donald Trump next year?
- [38:42]
Lucy Hawkings
Most of the talk was about Venezuela, to be honest, but there is that.
- [38:47]
Adam Fleming
As we'd expect it to be.
- [38:48]
Lucy Hawkings
Yes, there was lots of jokes about the crowds might be different next year, the media presence might be a bit heavier if President Trump wins. But I mean, I don't think they feel particularly comfortable about it, let's put it that way.
- [39:03]
Adam Fleming
Right. Lucy, thank you very much. Get some sleep.
- [39:05]
Lucy Hawkings
Thank you.
- [39:05]
Adam Fleming
And Vanessa, thanks to you too.
- [39:07]
Vanessa Buschschluter
Thanks.
- [39:07]
Lucy Hawkings
Thanks.
- [39:07]
Adam Fleming
And finally, some World cup related correspondence because of our new some people are calling it a gimmick in a good way and some people are calling it a gimmick in a bad way, where we're trying to find a newscaster with a decent link to every single country that has made it to the World cup next year. In North America, we've had a message via WhatsApp from Fernanda, who says, I live in the UK and listen to your podcast every day. Thank you, Fernanda. I'm Brazilian and half Italian, which officially makes me a nine time World cup champion. But honestly, I'd love to see England win one just so my husband can finally experience the sweet taste of victory. Fernanda, good luck to you and all your home nations and to your husband too. And I suppose now for balance, I've got to say good luck to all the other countries as well. So there's sort of 45 left, isn't there? And that will take a very long time. But keep your messages coming. Newscastbc.co.uk, whatsApp us on 033-01-239480. And a reminder, we're looking for newscasters who've got great links to the countries that have made it to the World cup in Mexico, Canada and the USA next summer. And another reminder, we're still looking for a name for this amazing trademark gimmick. So if you've got a very hopefully pun related idea, send it our way too. And we'll be sending you another episode of Newscast very soon. Bye bye.
- [40:28]
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- [40:31]
Chris Mason
From one newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know and don't forget, you can email us anytime@newscastbc.co.uk or if you're that way inclined send us a WhatsApp on 440-330-1239480. Be assured. I promise we listen to everyone.
- [41:16]
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