Newscast - "Is It The End Of The Global Order As We Know It?"

Date: February 16, 2026
Hosts: Adam Fleming, Joe Pike, James Landale, Katja Adler
Key Contributors: Marco Rubio (quoted)

Episode Overview

This episode investigates seismic shifts in the global security architecture and asks whether we're witnessing the end of the post-WWII “global order” as we know it. The team reflects on the mood and messages emerging from the 2026 Munich Security Conference, explores the future of transatlantic relations, and zooms in on how the UK, Germany, and other European countries are reacting. Political developments, defense spending dilemmas, and the nature of nuclear deterrence in a changed world are discussed in depth, with further updates from Westminster on local elections, Labour Party factionalism, and social media regulation for children.

Munich Security Conference: The Future of the Transatlantic Order

Key Discussion Points

• US–Europe Relations in Flux (03:06–08:11)
  • Europe’s continued military and intelligence dependence on the US is undeniable, despite pledges for increased European defense spending.
  • The US’s tone is shifting—from threats last year, led by figures such as JD Vance, to a more “conditional partnership” articulated by Marco Rubio this year.

“If you listened...this was clearly a very conditional offer of partnership going forward. He said the US did not want allies who clung onto the old status quo … we are able and willing to go it alone.”
— Katja Adler (06:33)

• Marco Rubio’s Speech – Conditional Kinship (07:22)
  • Rubio’s address struck a softer diplomatic note but made clear that future cooperation depends on Europe aligning with specific "Western, Christian values" and accepting the need for deep reforms.

"We do not need to abandon the system of international cooperation we authored ... But these must be reformed, these must be rebuilt."
— Marco Rubio (quoted by Katja Adler, 07:22)

• European Response Fractures (07:43)
  • While some countries like France urge “de-risking” from the US, others interpret the softer US stance as reassurance and hesitate to act, showing the continent’s growing internal divisions.

UK Defence Spending Debate

Funding the Future (08:11–13:05)

• The UK government signals it may accelerate its defense spending targets, aiming for 3% of GDP within this Parliament—costing upwards of £13–14 billion more a year.
• There’s criticism and skepticism from trade unions and Labour MPs about whether such sums can be found without painful choices in welfare, health, and education budgets.

“This needs to be a whole of society argument ... because it will require ultimately less being spent on welfare, health, education, pensions and all of that. That will require political leadership.”
— James Landale (12:10)

• Growing awareness that defense debates are not just technical but social—the coming years may fundamentally test the UK’s social contract.

European Defence: A Patchwork of Urgency and Reluctance

Divergent National Approaches (13:05–16:57)

• Nordic and Baltic states, Germany, and the Netherlands have ramped up defense outlays, feeling Russian threats more acutely.
• Southern European countries like Spain show little intention of matching these commitments, prioritizing domestic economic concerns.
• Germany’s shift is historic: for the first time since WWII, it has removed borrowing restraints specifically for defense, planning €152 billion in spending by 2029—double the UK and France’s ambitions.

“We have the authorities in Germany advising Germans to stock up on food for three to 10 days and saying that the possibility of war is no longer unlikely … for the first time since the Cold War.”
— Katja Adler (16:36)

• Public opinion is shifting, with 68% of Europeans now feeling directly threatened, but tough trade-offs remain ahead for welfare versus defense.

Nuclear Deterrence and the Vanishing Taboo

New Realities (16:57–18:35)

• The possibility of Germany developing nuclear capabilities or aligning more closely with France/UK’s deterrence underscores the altered landscape.
• Across Europe and Asia (e.g., Poland, South Korea, Japan), more states are contemplating nuclear options as US security guarantees feel less certain.

“The taboo is just disappearing.”
— James Landale (18:16)

Westminster Updates

1. Local Election U-turn (18:59–20:42)

• Government backtracks on plans to delay 30 local elections; legal advice and potential challenges prompted the reversal.
• Discussion about the practicalities and political implications, with Reform UK eyeing opportunities in the newly contested councils.

2. Labour Party ‘Factionalism’ and Investigation (21:14–27:39)

• “Labour Together”, a think tank closely associated with Keir Starmer, faces scrutiny over employing a lobbying firm to investigate journalists probing its funding.
• The Cabinet Office’s propriety and ethics team opens an inquiry; debate ensues over the limits of such investigations when ministers change roles and activities pre-date their government positions.
• The episode illustrates ongoing factional battles within Labour, catalyzed by transparency issues and leftover tension from Corbyn-era divides.

“The intentions of Labour Together were not clear at the start ... And the lack of transparency around the scale of donations they were getting was part of that.”
— Joe Pike (25:49)

3. Online Child Safety Laws (27:39–31:04)

• Government announces consultations and potential bans on social media for under-16s, aiming to amend legislation via statutory instruments.
• Broader package includes new powers for Ofcom and rules about safeguarding data following child deaths linked to online activities.
• Some MPs raise concerns about the scope and scrutiny of such wide-reaching changes via secondary legislation.

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• Katja Adler on the mood in Munich:
  “It was almost like willful misinterpretation initially ... only after time it’s really sunk in what [Rubio] was truly saying. Under the niceties, we can no longer ... place the so-called global order above the vital interests of our people and our nations.” (07:22)

• On Britain’s defense spending dilemma:
  “Per year on top of their existing spending plans.”
  — James Landale, emphasizing the cost of the 3% GDP target (10:47)

• On changing European security perceptions:
  “This is for the first time since the Cold War.”
  — Katja Adler (16:46)

• On the crumbling nuclear taboo:
  “So there is now a space where countries are beginning to think, actually, yes, we need to think differently about this...”
  — James Landale (17:53)

• Comic relief:
  “The gold award for pedantry goes to me.”
  — Adam Fleming on Olympic naming conventions (18:54)
  “Joe Pike resembles Justin Webb. Are they related?”
  — Listener question sparking jokey exchanges about lookalikes (31:15)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:06 – Munich Security Conference: Katja’s insights on US–Europe relations
• 07:22 – Marco Rubio’s speech; conditional future of transatlantic order
• 08:11 – UK defense spending debate and pressure points
• 13:05 – European divisions in defense spending; Germany’s historic shift
• 16:57 – Nuclear deterrence: Germany and the “vanishing taboo”
• 18:59 – Local election postponement U-turn
• 21:14 – Labour Together investigation, ethics, and factionalism
• 27:39 – Online safety laws & tech policy for children

Tone and Style

The discussion is frank, analytic, and sprinkled with British wryness, banter, and some self-aware pedantry. The hosts combine high-level geopolitical analysis with practical domestic political reporting, and moments of levity.

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