Chris Mason (2:54)

Newscast, newscast, newscast from the BBC. Fat boy sliver me in the classroom doing our violin lessons.

Adam Fleming (3:00)

I was the tattletale in the class. Can I have an apology, please?

Chris Mason (3:02)

I trust almost nobody that daddy has to sometimes do strong language. Next time in mosque.

Helena Merriman (3:08)

I feel delulu with no salulu.

Chris Mason (3:10)

Take me down to Downing Street.

Adam Fleming (3:12)

Let's go have a tour.

Chris Mason (3:14)

Blimey.

Adam Fleming (3:14)

Hello, Chris.

Chris Mason (3:15)

Hello.

Adam Fleming (3:16)

I can always tell it's a big political story because you work on a Sunday night. Not that you're work shy, obviously, but it's just you do more than enough work during the week.

Chris Mason (3:23)

Yeah, yeah. It's been one of those days, hasn't it? And it's been the kind of arc to this, hasn't there, Adam? So we had Andrew Gwynne, the outgoing MP for Gorton and Denton, saying last week that he was gonna stand down, pointing to the fact that he has had all sorts of mental health troubles. He'd also got himself in a bit of a tangle about whatsapps that he'd sent that a newspaper got hold of. And then this process where the Prime Minister was gonna be confronted by a decision. And I think, you know, when I step back from it now, here we are on Sunday evening. You've got the Prime Minister exerting a kind of brute force, a brute power, but underneath it is kind of a recognition of a weakness. Because if he was totally flying as Prime Minister, he could think, well, you know, this guy's clearly able. He's been a mayor, he's been a cabinet minister. We'll welcome him back. He'd be no threat to me. And the reality is the Prime Minister's well aware that Andy Burnham is a threat. I mean, not least because he's gone out of his way, Mr. Burnham, to say quite a few times about his ambitions to be Prime Minister. And so, yeah, the Prime Minister squashed it.

Adam Fleming (4:22)

But is that leadership threat how they actually squished Andy Burnham's ambitions. Didn't they use lots more as kind of procedural things?

Chris Mason (4:29)

They did. So there was some bureaucratic kind of strictures that they were able to lean on. And to be fair, these are things written down in the rules that are very clear. So the rules set out that if you are.

Adam Fleming (4:38)

Oh, yeah, Andy Burnham wouldn't have known this yesterday.

Chris Mason (4:40)

Well, indeed, if you look at the rules, it's set down there. If you are a elected mayor or indeed a police crime commissioner and you want to run for Westminster, you can ask to. But the National Executive Committee, the kind of governing body, if you like, of the Labour Party, gets to have a say. And that's what was happening this morning. So you had this collection, this sort of subgroup of the National Executive Committee, Executive Committee. By the way, the Prime Minister is on it and he was on this teams or zoom call or whatever is this virtual call.

Adam Fleming (5:08)

Although he doesn't chair it, though. He's just an average Joe on it.

Chris Mason (5:11)

Yeah, yeah. So the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, who, you know, only just finished talking to Laura Kay on the television, then joins this remote call at 11 o' clock on Sunday morning. And there's 10 of them in total. They take about an hour and they decide by 8 to 1, Shabana Mahmoud didn't vote' cause she was the chair, that they would reject Andy Burnham's request to be allowed to run to be one of the candidates. If he'd been approved this morning, he wouldn't have been the Labour candidate yet there would have then been a process involving the local party in Gorton, Denton, to pick the Labour candidate. But his candidacy is squashed. The Prime Minister amongst the eight saying no, Lucy Powell, the deputy leader, neighbouring Manchester MP to this seat and obviously the City in which Andy Burnham is the mayor, the only one to say he should be able to. He should be able to stand.

Adam Fleming (6:03)

I mean, the main consequence tonight is that Keir Starmer doesn't have to worry about a leadership challenge from Andy Burnham in the next three, four or five months. What are some of the other consequences?

Chris Mason (6:13)

Well, I think the big consequence, and this is where it was kind of heads you lose, tails you lose for the Prime Minister. With all of this in that, if he'd said yes, or if the collection on the NEC had said yes and then Andy Burnham had become the Labour candidate and then he had won, and we shouldn't assume either of those things were guaranteed, but let's just imagine that then he'd have been back at Westminster and There's a fair old chance, you know, before long, his ambitions would have been made clear once again. And the question would have been asked every flipping day, wouldn't it, of Andy Burnham in a violation campaign about his visions for the country, whilst he'd have been trying to say, look, my main focus is on sorting out this or that in the constituency. If I was to win by saying no, well, firstly, you've got a massive argument now in private and in public, within the Labour Party, of those who think that this was a good idea. And there's plenty who do, by the way.

Adam Fleming (7:04)

Oh, blocking it was a good idea.

Chris Mason (7:05)

Blocking it was a good idea. There are plenty who do. Plenty who didn't want the kind of psychodrama. Plenty of MPs, actually. Loads of Labour MPs who just don't really know him because he was a Minister and an mp. Yeah, for years and years and years, but it was ages ago and loads of new MPs for Labour and he came in last year. So there's plenty who think, no, no, you know, governing is hard enough as it is, the international picture, cost of living, et cetera, we really don't need this. But there's a fair few who just think that this is wrong, that it's a sign of the Prime Minister's weakness. As one said to me, he's frit. He's scared, he's leant on a bureaucratic rule, rather than saying, yeah, yeah, come back and, you know, take me on if you like, but I'll be so successful, you won't stand a chance. And of course, the Prime Minister doesn't feel like that. So just before Christmas, I remember us talking about the whole row about Wes Streeting, where Wes Streeting found himself on the wrong end of a load of briefing from folk who were wanting to help the Prime Minister out, saying, look, they thought that West Streeting was going to challenge the Prime Minister and if there was a challenge, Keir Starmer would stand in that contest. So a couple of months ago, the focus was on West Streeting, now the focus on Andy Burnham. Prime ministers and those around them only do this sort of stuff if they genuinely feel a fear, if they feel threatened, and the Prime Minister does feel threatened, because Labour are in dire straits in the opinion polls and those who think they've got a better vision for turning Labour around, Streeting and Adi Burnham among them, but they're not the only two are therefore seen as a threat.

Adam Fleming (8:36)

Not to fixate on the inner workings of the Labour nec, but, well, why not is there anything to read into the fact that it was 8 to 1? Cause you look at that and you think, oh, that's eight people, including the Prime Minister, siding with the Prime Minister. He's got a lot of people around him on his side, but is that maybe not quite the case?

Chris Mason (8:55)

So I think what you can read into it is that on the National Executive Committee, there is a lot of support for Keir Starmer. In fact, one of the building blocks of the Starmer project in opposition. Not the kind of thing that generates headlines or gets people's pulses racing, but one of the things that Keir Starmer and his team felt that they needed to do as part of the remoulding of the Labour Party after the Jeremy Corbyn years was to mould the NEC in their own image, because it's a really powerful committee body within the party. And I think an element of that we've seen play out with this. Certainly speaking to loads of MPs this afternoon and monitoring what they've been saying on social media and all over the place. I think it's more finely balanced within the parliamentary party and within the wider Labour Party than as apparently one sided as 8:1.

Adam Fleming (9:47)

And the Gorton and Denton by election is no longer a referendum on Keir Starmer's leadership or a proxy leadership contest, except it is still a referendum on Keir Starmer's leadership. That bit of it hasn't gone away. It's just going to be different personnel now completely.

Chris Mason (10:00)

And Andy Burton was sort of hinting at this in his social media posts this evening, where he was talking about, and you hear this from a lot of Labour MPs about the fears around Reform UK. Now, this is an argument made by both sides because those around the Prime Minister say, ah, if Andy Burnham had become the mp, there'd have had to be a mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Adam Fleming (10:19)

Imagine at a cost of either 1 1/2 million pounds or 4 1/2 million pounds, depending on who you listen to.

Chris Mason (10:24)

Yeah, they're making an argument it'd be expensive for the taxpayer and it'd be expensive for the party in campaigning terms. And they make the argument what happens were we to lose? The counter argument made by some who are loyal to Andy Burnham is if Andy Burnham was the best candidate to win this by election for Labour, then what does that say about the Prime Minister, if he is willing to risk losing that seat, say, to reform in order to avoid a potential rival getting back to Westminster? In other words, the slight oddity that he as they might see it, rather have a reform MP in Westminster than Andy Burnham.

Adam Fleming (11:02)

I'm now really, really projecting into the future and thinking, in what way could Andy Burnham ever become Prime Minister now? And I'm thinking, okay, so he's got to stay in Manchester till 2028 now. Cause that's when this term runs out. Yeah, that would be around about maybe the early timing for a next general election, which we think would probably be in 2029, maximum a year. But it could be 2028. So what, he would stand down as King of the north in Manchester United, Go through the normal selection process to be a Labour candidate, fight in the 2029 general election, which, if Labour wins, he'd then have to challenge a miraculously surviving Keir Starmer, who'd just been reelected as Prime Minister, which that would be a weird challenge. Or he then is the leader of the Labour Party that's in opposition, having lost that election. Or, I mean, already I'm running out of puff here.

Chris Mason (11:51)

I mean, in that scenario, it'd be really difficult for him because either Labour have won and therefore the winner has got a mandate, whether that's Keir Starmer or anyone else, or they've lost and the fight will be to be the leader of the Opposition, which then means.

Adam Fleming (12:03)

Becoming Prime Minister at the earliest in, what, 2033.

Chris Mason (12:07)

Yes.

Adam Fleming (12:08)

If labour then win the next election.

Chris Mason (12:10)

Exactly. Or if there were to be another by election in Greater Manchester or perhaps in Merseyside, because he's got sort of solid Merseyside credentials too, would they say no again? I mean, the logic would be, yes, you would, because all of the arguments they're making now would stand again about cost and about, as they might see it, the threat of reform. But politically, would that be possible? What happens in the meantime at Westminster when MPs gather again tomorrow? Where do they feel this goes? Where does this leave Wes Streeting, for instance, and Shabana Mahmood, today's impartial chair, but seen as someone who come any leadership contest could get stuck in herself. There's Angela Rayner as well, another Greater Manchester mp. So where does it leave them in the countdown towards these crucial elections in May in Scotland and Wales, for devolved parliaments, and then in many parts of England. This whole question around Keir Starmer's leadership isn't going to go away. This is just effectively the latest case study in it. And then one other thing, Adam. What does Andy Burnham, I was going to say, do next? Actually, perhaps bigger than that is what does he say next? He's had a stream of social media posts tonight, including a disobliging one, by the way, suggesting that he found out from the media about what had happened, that there's even a disagreement about the process in which he was informed. Because others are saying that they tried to ring him, he didn't pick up and they sent him an email. But in the meantime he might have seen something from the media which was sent to the media after they got in touch with him, but he seen it perhaps. Anyway, so there's a lot of bad blood around and yeah, what does he say or do next? And you know, on we go to the next chapter. Cause there will be another one around the Prime Minister and his future.

Adam Fleming (13:57)

And you've just been very polite and focused your entire attention on talking to me and our listeners. I've just been looking out the corner of my eye on X. And Andy Burnham has just, in the last few minutes replied to a tweet by Tom Baldwin, former Labor Communications Director under Ed Miliband, now biographer of Keir Starmer, and quite often thought of as somebody who is very good at ventriloquizing what Keir Starmer might say.

Chris Mason (14:18)

Indeed.

Adam Fleming (14:19)

And Andy Burnham has replied to one of his tweets saying, I'm not sure losing a by election does good either, Tom. So actually, Andy Burnham being quite explicit about the fact Labour might lose that by election now because they've not selected.

Chris Mason (14:32)

Him or not allowed him to go.

Adam Fleming (14:33)

Forward to the summit.

Chris Mason (14:34)

Well, indeed. And so when you look at that, you see in miniature in both directions in this row today, the argument that the Labour Party has been having privately and publicly for the last six months or so, a bit more than that, which is how do they show their best face, if you like, in taking on reform? Because there you have Andy Burnham using the perceived threat of reform for why he should have been the by election candidate. And you have Downing street using the perceived threat of reform for saying why he cannot stand down as the Mayor of Manchester.

Adam Fleming (15:05)

Although I've noticed that lots of Starmer loyalists have dropped this line they were using a few days ago, which is, you can't have all of this happening while there's global insecurity and instability, as if, like Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are waiting for the NEC decision, clicking refresh. At 11 o' clock this morning, they.

Chris Mason (15:24)

Are having a crack at this idea around psychodrama, aren't they? This idea that perhaps the elector, after the, you know, gazillion Prime Ministers we had in 45 minutes over the last three or four years, may be tired of that kind of rotating cast of leaders. And in many senses the biggest argument that the prime minister has got both to his own party and to the wider electorate, whatever people think of him now or thought of him at the election, he was the guy on the ticket who got the labor majority. And whoever were to succeed him prior to a general election wouldn't have that. And that's quite a powerful argument which sure as heck they'll deploy.

Adam Fleming (15:59)

Right, Chris, do you want to go and get ready for the 10 o' clock news on BBC1?

Chris Mason (16:02)

Better hat.

Adam Fleming (16:03)

Thank you very much. See you later. So that was me and Chris talking live on Five Live at about quarter past nine on the evening of Sunday the 25th of January. And that's it for this little bonus episode of Newscast. Thank you very much for listening. We'll be back with the classic newscast later on. Speak to you soon. Bye bye.

Chris Mason (16:24)

Newscast, Newscast from the BBC. Well, thank you for making it to the end of another newscast. You clearly ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? And then without having to do anything else, our meandering chat will miraculously make its way to your phone.

Helena Merriman (16:54)

If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed? In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC Series series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau, Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.