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- [00:00]
Paddy O'Connell
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- [00:06]
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- [01:09]
Laura Kuenssberg
So Paddy, this has been one of those mornings where a dark event suddenly emerges and will dominate the news. Probably for the rest of today, probably for the rest of tomorrow. And it was one of those days. We were about to go on air. We started getting reports in of a multiple shooting on Bondi beach in Australia, one of the most famous places in the world. By complete coincidence, one of our guests was Leila Cunningham, who's a Reform politician. We told her what was happening. She then said her nephew lived there. She got him on the phone and he told her. And she then told us live on air. Within a few minutes there was an active situation. There were shots ringing out. He was a doctor who was on his way from a neighboring beach 10 minutes away to go to try to help. And since then, some of the videos, some of the eyewitnesses, accounts that have been coming out are absolutely horrific. As we talk at 10 to 11 on Sunday morning, a lot of things are still evolving and we don't have the full story, but it very much appears as if this was an attack on a Jewish holiday, a Hanukkah event.
- [02:12]
Paddy O'Connell
Yes, it was a pre advertised Hanukkah event for people of all ages to have entertainment and activities. The Israeli President has said this is an attack on Jews and the Australian Prime Minister has said his thoughts are with those who died. But people listening to our podcast in the future will know more than we do at the moment. But to clarify what we do know is there's been a terror attack on Bondi beach targeting a Hanukkah festival, and at the moment, the world's reacting and learning more. So we start with our podcast by saying that's the news and our feelings are with all those who are affected. But that will be uncovering, developing throughout the day.
- [02:54]
Laura Kuenssberg
We will also, though, talk about the main event on our program this morning, which was an interview with the Home Secretary talking about her hopes of cracking down on violence against women and girls. And maybe, maybe we'll do that really stupid thing of getting the crystal ball out of the cupboard, dusting it down, foolishly making predictions for the years to come.
- [03:11]
Shabana Mahmood
Newscast, newscast from the BBC.
- [03:13]
Henry Zeffman
Fat Boy Slim and me in the classroom doing our violin lessons. I was the tattletale in the classroom.
- [03:18]
Paddy O'Connell
Can I have an apology, please? I trust almost nobody that daddy has to sometimes use strong language.
- [03:23]
Laura Kuenssberg
Next time in mosque. I feel dulu with no salulu. Take me down to Downing Street. Let's go have a tour.
- [03:30]
Henry Zeffman
Blimey.
- [03:33]
Paddy O'Connell
Hello, it's Paddy in the studio.
- [03:34]
Laura Kuenssberg
And it's Laura in the studio.
- [03:35]
Henry Zeffman
And it's Henry at home.
- [03:37]
Laura Kuenssberg
Ah, Zeffman reunited. Marvellous. So the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, had the sticky wicket of coming out to defend the government after what has been in many ways an absolutely dreadful year. Her plans, though, are to spend the next few days talking about the government strategy to have violence against women and girls, which, before we say anything else, has been an awful long time in the coming, which has made some campaigners cross. And it's not really clear to me yet as to whether or not this contains very much that is could be described in headlines as sweeping or whether or not it's a series of small expansions of things that are already happening. Henry, what's your take?
- [04:17]
Henry Zeffman
I think one thing that's quite striking in a year in which we've talked about the government being buffeted around by events and changing its policy on some quite significant planks of its programme, is this is something that the government and the Labour Party have been talking about for some time before they came into government, in fact. I mean, remember those missions which the government doesn't really talk about anymore? This was at the heart of one of them, the crime mission, halving violence against women and girls. So I think you're absolutely right to raise the question of whether the strategy is Ambitious as some campaigners would like it to be and as the Labour Party might have originally presented it as being. But that core target, halving violence against women and girls, was one of the core things which the Labour Party said it wanted to do upon being elected. And here they are, 18 months or so in talking about it, and we can't say that for every element of their program. So I just think that element of it is quite significant.
- [05:08]
Laura Kuenssberg
Yeah, it's true. There are some strategies still missing in action. The industrial strategy, which strikes me as probably rather important for a government that says growth is at the top of its list and it's still somewhere down the back of the sofa.
- [05:18]
Paddy O'Connell
I mean, on this particular announcement, which is also in the newspapers today, specialist rape and sexual offence investigation teams will be introduced to every police force in England and Wales by 2029. And here she is talking to Laura, saying that she thinks the criminal justice system fails women.
- [05:37]
Shabana Mahmood
Ever since I've been government in my previous job as Justice Secretary and now as the Home Secretary, one of the depressing conclusions I've come to is that the criminal justice system fails women. It fails women who are victims of domestic abuse, of sexual assault, of stalking, all sorts of offences, because we have a postcode lottery. Some police forces handle these sorts of cases very well. The investigations are very thorough. They focus on the suspects, not on the victims, and they put the case in the best possible position to get a conviction later on. And others don't do it so well. Others don't have specialist trained officers.
- [06:10]
Laura Kuenssberg
So it's your view some police forces just aren't doing this properly? I think it's interesting, isn't it, to hear the Home Secretary so boldly say, the criminal justice system fails half the country. You know, violence against women and girls. You quite often get into a jargony sort of conversation, as if this is some sort of obscure policy area. But to have the Home Secretary saying that the justice system is failing half the nation. I thought that was quite a moment.
- [06:37]
Henry Zeffman
It's very Shabana Mahmoud, isn't it? Or very Mahmoudian, to use an adjective, which I think some in her team have been encouraging journalists to help call.
- [06:44]
Paddy O'Connell
Really? I know.
- [06:44]
Laura Kuenssberg
I'm not sure it's gonna catch on. What do you think?
- [06:47]
Henry Zeffman
Not well, I've just used it. So there you go. Perhaps I'm unwittingly helping, but look, I. I think it is a reminder. I mean, Shibana Mamoutha has not been Home Secretary that long. Right? We're still talking about three months or so that she's been in the job and she has talked very plainly and acted, at least many would say, pretty radically on other areas of her brief immigration, both illegal and legal. And I think we are now seeing her engage much more with policing. We are expecting, I think, a much broader sort of set of announcements on policing and how she believes the policing system is, or more to the point, isn't working. I think in the coming weeks, most likely in early 2026. There was a, I think, very well sourced report in the Times at some point in the last week suggesting, I mean, Shabana Mahmood is talking here about scaling up what's happening in some police forces on violence against women and girls to other police forces. But there's a suggestion in the Times this week that she might be merging most police forces. So at the moment essentially runs along historic counties, pretty much. But there was a suggestion that you might well end up with a dozen or so police forces across the entirety of England. So many police forces as they exist at the moment, merging. So I think if you broaden out from this very specific and very important policy area, I think this is just the start of where we can expect to hear a lot more from Shabana Mahmood about policing in England.
- [08:11]
Laura Kuenssberg
I think that's absolutely right. And for those of us who are as old as I am, you might remember Charles Clark, who was a Labour Home Secretary, who also was somebody who spoke plainly and was moved into the Home Office to try and sort it out when there were problems of other asylum seekers, there were problems about policing. He tried to bring England's police forces down from over 40 down to a smaller number. And he walked slap bang into a load of brick wall bobbies and police forces saying, you must be having a joke. And even in a sort of new labor peak of their powers moment, they found that they didn't actually have the power to be able to run this through. So this may well end up in quite a standoff in the new year, although not so long ago the Met Commissioner was on our show and he said that actually reducing the number of forces was something that he was arguing for. And I think by him saying that in public, he was trying to persuade the then Home Secretary of Cooper to get on with it. Shabana Mahmoud now does seem ready to pick up that task.
- [09:13]
Paddy O'Connell
It would be a massive piece of reorganization.
- [09:16]
Henry Zeffman
Huge.
- [09:16]
Paddy O'Connell
I went down to Brighton for Newsnight filming Shoplift and a lot of the talk we had so socially with police officers and the police and Crime Commissioner was of a potential change to the structure of policing in England. And on this particular report that's coming out today, it's already a sign of what doesn't work in the system. A report released earlier this month found that a quarter of police forces in England and Wales had not implemented basic policies, basic policies for investigating sexual offences. So it's the disparate way in which disparate forces treat law and order which is the difficulty for the Home Office, because you can't pull one lever and get one response. And then police are meant to be operationally independent, so they often have to speak about things they have no control over. It's an extraordinary job. And it seems to claim. Henry, doesn't it seems to claim more Home Secretaries than make them.
- [10:11]
Henry Zeffman
Oh, yeah. I mean, I think the churn in our governments over the last few years is such that actually Home Secretaries have turned over more to do with changes in Prime Minister than having time to fail on their own terms. But certainly it is, you know, historically a political graveyard. I think the only person really to defy that was Theresa May, who managed six years in that job. But, yeah, it certainly does. I mean, interesting as well, Paddy, because you mentioned police and Crime Commissioner in the context of your report from Brighton for Newsnight. Well, of course, one of the very early radical decisions that Shabana has taken is to abolish police and crime commissioners. But that is not, crucially, the abolition of the principle, and it was a turismo policy, by the way, that. That there ought to be sort of local elected control over police forces. It's more likely that I think those functions, if I'm remembering rightly, are going to be folded into the elected mayoralties which exist in many parts of the country and before long will exist in almost all parts of the country.
- [11:08]
Laura Kuenssberg
And I wonder how many newscasters have ever said, what do we want? More politicians? When do we want them Now? So I think there was a question, when are introducing mayors to more and more parts of the country? Does it make sense then to have yet another locally elected politician who's responsible for something that mayors in other parts of the world have responsibility for? So that, you know, there was a kind of mismatch. I have no view on whether it's the right thing or the wrong thing to do, clearly. But there was a sort of mismatch. So in some parts of the country, if the mayor's in charge, why would you have a another elected to do that same function?
- [11:40]
Paddy O'Connell
And where are you both on Shabanim and her own leadership potential? Because is the Home Office. So something that's so difficult, she can't really succeed, which helps Keir Starmer know she can't succeed him.
- [11:53]
Laura Kuenssberg
I think there are two things about Shabana Mahmood in that regard, and we asked her about it this morning because she said a couple of months ago, anyone in politics who says they're not interested in the top job is lying to you. And I think she was kind of having a bit of a gag at party conference. But she did say that in public, and we asked her about that this morning. And it might be worth just having a listen to the coy way in which she tried to kind of get round that one.
- [12:17]
Shabana Mahmood
Keir summer is not going. And I think there's a world of difference between saying that everyone who's ever been a politician or wanted to be a politician has probably thought about the top job, which is what I was talking about. In the event, have you looked to you and said every single parrot has thought about it? Of course they have. But that is not the same as, you know, plotting to overthrow a Prime Minister, for God's sake. The Prime Minister is getting on with doing his job. I am a member of his government. I have a big job of my own to do, and that is the only thing that I'm focused on.
- [12:48]
Laura Kuenssberg
But I think for her, there are two things. Is one. Yes. Is she seen as somebody who is effective, is willing to speak plainly, is also happy to scratch the itch of certain parts of the electorate that some Labour politicians find it uncomfortable doing so. So do lots of people think that she is a good thing and a brave politician? Yes. Do lots of people in the Labour Party think right now that she would be a popular choice for Labour Party members? Not necessarily. So that doesn't mean she's not likely to run. If there were to be a vacancy, I think it's quite likely that she probably would have a tilt at it just to put a marker down. But one of the reasons she's not named in the many thousands of acres of newsprint and hours of podcasts about who might take over from Keir Starmer if he has to go, she doesn't normally get mentioned in the first number one or two slot for that reason. Because right now it doesn't seem that likely. There's a route for her through the membership.
- [13:51]
Henry Zeffman
I think that's right. It's not a sweet spot from which to run for the leadership. However, if she makes a success of this job and the timeframe for that is going to be measured over years and some people think that a question over the Labour leadership is going to arise sooner than that. But if she makes a success of this job, then, you know, that is generally a solid basis from which to run for leadership and for, you know, especially when you're in government, because you can say, I have actually achieved things as a government minister. But look, I think she's certainly a big player. I think the other thing that should be, you know, can't be understated about Shabbana Mahmood is just her newness. We've known about her for a while. She's been on the Labour front bench for a while, but actually not really in frontline positions. I mean, she only became Shadow Justice Secretary about a year before the general election. She wasn't necessarily a massive part of Labour's general election campaign. Not one of the most prominent media voices. So actually, the last few months in which she is everywhere, all at once, talking about all sorts of kinds of radical measures on all areas of the Home Office brief is actually quite fresh. And so, you know, I think you can sort of overestimate the extent to which anyone, including political party members, know and care as much about sort of middle and junior ranking politicians as we do. In other words, I think she's new even to quite a lot of the people who will end up deciding who the next Labour Party leader is whenever that choice is made.
- [15:19]
Laura Kuenssberg
I think that's completely right. Let's not forget, in politics, name recognition is actually the number one. It's the number one thing for any politician. If nobody knows who you are.
- [15:28]
Paddy O'Connell
Yeah.
- [15:29]
Laura Kuenssberg
You're not going to win an election. Which is why people who are well known, whether that was, you know, Boris Johnson coming back into Westminster, having spent 10 years being on the telly, cracking gags, or whether it's Nigel Farage who went into the jungle and then once he come out of the jungle, came back into politics, much more famous, much more well known. These things are not unconnected to political prominence and popularity, which is why some of the debate around the labor leadership and people are mentioning someone like Al Carnes, who is an MP and now a minister, who people say is a wonderful thing. I'm not sure how many newscasters who are a clever, informed bunch would know who he is, let alone people who aren't very interested in news because they're getting on with the rest of their lives.
- [16:09]
Paddy O'Connell
Two words, Andy Burnham.
- [16:11]
Laura Kuenssberg
Yeah.
- [16:11]
Paddy O'Connell
Are they words? I don't know. Two. Two. Are they words? I kind of lost. I've lost my sense of grammar.
- [16:16]
Laura Kuenssberg
It says they're a proper noun. Two proper nouns.
- [16:19]
Paddy O'Connell
Two proper nouns. Thank you. He's back. Henry in the papers today as being reported to look for a seat. This came. This was the whole plot that never was the last time. Now it's been resuscitated. Looking at a constituency he could represent, he's understood to have identified a seat. What do you make of it?
- [16:38]
Henry Zeffman
Well, it would be a more fulfilling news report if we knew what the seat was, but. Sorry, that sounded cattier than I meant it to.
- [16:45]
Laura Kuenssberg
Sorry to talk about it.
- [16:47]
Henry Zeffman
No, no, no, no, I don't mean it. No, I didn't mean it like that. I really didn't mean it like that.
- [16:51]
Laura Kuenssberg
Her Majesty broadsheet of record pounding from its former people.
- [16:57]
Henry Zeffman
Absolutely. This is the kind of Westminster nonsense that Andy Burnham complains about. Laura, indeed, has been complaining about this morning while cooling it, but. Well, indeed, I think the thing with Andy Burnham is that it is clear from his repeated interviews in which he sort of complains about this sort of speculation while not saying words which he knows would dampen that speculation that look, so many people at the top of the Labour Party. And by the way, I often get frustrated people on social media claiming it's nonsense that senior people in the Labour Party are anything other than 100% supportive of Keir Starmer and think anything other than he's going to be Prime Minister for a decade. Well, I'm afraid it's not. It's true. And given that that is the conversation that is taking place at some of the most senior levels in the Labour Party, obviously Andy Burnham, who, by the way polling suggests, is one of the few moderately popular politicians in the country, let alone with name recognition, with name recognition, would consider it. And the big obstacle for him is that he's not an mp. So obviously he does need to discuss ways to remedy that plot twist.
- [18:05]
Laura Kuenssberg
Might, though, be would Labour's governing body, its National Executive Committee, chaired by one Shabana Mahmood, would they actually allow him to run for a seat? Because theoretically they could block him. But if they blocked him, there would be a hullabaloo. But if they allowed him to go for it, well, then, who knows? And because of the events in Australia, we didn't ask Shabana Mahmood about that this morning. It was on my list and because we were up against the clock, we didn't get to ask that question. But it is potentially one of the snafus or potential rare over 2026, if Keir Starmer's allies tried to block Andy Barnum from going for a seat. Goodness me, that could get very, very messy indeed.
- [18:43]
Henry Zeffman
And just to get even more niche on this, Keir Starmer generally is said to have a controlling majority on Labour's National Executive Committee, which is made up of representatives, constituencies, parliamentary party, trade unions and a few others. However, does that mean that he has a majority for the purposes of stopping Andy Burnham, should it come to that? Trying to run in a by election? I'm not so sure there's the potential for a change of leadership in Unison, which is one of the trade unions which has been supportive Keir Starmer to something much more skeptical ex officio. The deputy leader sits on that. Well, now it's Lucy Powell. She was being very supportive of Keir Starmer Today program yesterday, but she's also been close to Andy Burnham in the past. So I'm not as confident as some around Keir Starmer that that is a non starter for Andy Burnham and a.
- [19:30]
Laura Kuenssberg
Majority is only a majority. When the people who make up that majority still want to back you, they can change their minds. And we were talking a lot yesterday about the unions, weren't we, about this actually pretty tricky relationship that Starmer has got with the unions now. And even as you said, Henry Unison, which has been generally regarded as being pretty supportive, its boss who's been running for re election, has already said on the record she's not sure that, you know, Starmer's actually going to be there in the future. So that's not necessarily something that the leadership could bank on.
- [20:00]
Paddy O'Connell
It's such an extraordinary position for the new government to be in with its massive majority and its huge win back in 2024.
- [20:07]
Laura Kuenssberg
It is, it's crackers. And we've talked about so much in the last 12 months, all the reasons why they' got to this position, but it still is crackers to understand that they've got to this place. Whereas Henry quite rightly says the reason that we wang on about the leadership is because Labor, MPS and people in the cabinet say things when the camera's not on like, oh, I think there will definitely be a challenge to him after the May elections because we're going to get hammered and we might have to get rid of him. You know, that's what's being said in private and that's why we talk about it.
- [20:39]
Paddy O'Connell
Also, I read there's been new briefings against where streeting new ones in the last few days.
- [20:44]
Laura Kuenssberg
My favorite other cabinet related vocabulary development of this year. So where Henry found out Mammudian and I'd also heard that from one of her allies and thought, I'm going to do my very best never to say mammudian because nobody listening or watching will have a faintest foggiest what I'm talking about. But my other favorite development of the year has been to wez Wes becomes a verb. Oh, so Wes is going to Wes was memorably said to me a few weeks ago, essentially, why did number 10 or whoever it was go mad about Wes Streeting's behavior? Because Wes is always going to Wes. Wes is just going to Wes. Wes is going to Wes all over the place and he's just going to do what Wes does.
- [21:27]
Paddy O'Connell
Right.
- [21:27]
Laura Kuenssberg
Which is the Health Secretary's habit of making headlines saying things that other labor politicians wouldn't quite get away with. So if Wes is going to wear it.
- [21:35]
Paddy O'Connell
Yeah. He didn't he describe the government as Prime Minister? As a maintenance Prime Minister, he did. And also in the same report I saw Henry, he was described as finding it too difficult to be the Health Secretary because his number one job was being Wes treating.
- [21:48]
Henry Zeffman
Yeah, I think that was. Was that in the Times, that briefing as well? Yes, I mean, I think, I think, look, all of this, I think is a sign that, you know, people are jostling for position.
- [21:58]
Laura Kuenssberg
Yeah.
- [21:59]
Henry Zeffman
And you know, it's, it's, it's the kind of briefing that you have, I think fairly typically in the months that precede a leadership contest. What I think it's less typical of, and we can't say this enough, and you just said it, Paddy, is a government 17 months after winning a landslide victory. And that is what is so strange here.
- [22:18]
Laura Kuenssberg
And what we also said yesterday, and I'll say it again today, there is a sense to me as well that Labours kind of talk themselves into this and there is a scenario where this doesn't happen at all. And a few wise old bards, no way to speak about some of my contacts, but a few people have said actually this may well not happen at all. This may well not happen at all.
- [22:37]
Paddy O'Connell
Contrarian.
- [22:38]
Laura Kuenssberg
Well, and just remember how many times, you know, it was years after John Prescott basically hinted that Gordon Brown was on his way into number 10 when he said the tectonic plates are shifting. And then people tried to get rid of Gordon Brown and they didn't manage it. People spent years in the Tory party who've got more of a sort of killer instinct for this kind of stuff. It took them years to get Theresa May out. So I just think very often Westminster talks itself into A view. And that view does not always come to pass.
- [23:06]
Henry Zeffman
Expectations for the May elections are now so low in the Labour Party that actually very slightly clearing an absurdly low bar may well be enough for Keir Starmer. So I agree with you, Laura. On the other hand, expectations are now so low for the May elections that you might well have MPs in Scotland or MPs in Wales saying, well, hang on, that's our party there, that you're willing to sort of sacrifice to just wait and see what happens in May. Why not even move sooner?
- [23:33]
Laura Kuenssberg
And that makes me think of what a couple of months ago I was quite shocked by a senior figure in the party said to me, we're all starting to be haunted by the prospect of being like the party that allowed Biden to run because none of us could sort of bear pulling the plaster off. It was too difficult and too painful and it's not a straightforward comparison to make. But when that person said that to me, I thought, blimey. So there is that sense, how you say some people do, you sleepwalk into disaster. I'm not saying it's going to be a disaster, but that feeling of, oh, God, if we just let this happen and don't make a change, maybe we'll regret it.
- [24:16]
Paddy O'Connell
So we've now moved to the other promised part of our podcast today, which is predictions for 2026.
- [24:21]
Laura Kuenssberg
Yes.
- [24:22]
Paddy O'Connell
And I think we can safely say that you've both covered the May local elections. But should we just say where they are for a briefing?
- [24:30]
Laura Kuenssberg
Yes.
- [24:30]
Paddy O'Connell
Make it plain, because you've been talking about this for six months.
- [24:32]
Laura Kuenssberg
I have. I've been banging on about mega.
- [24:34]
Paddy O'Connell
Maybe local councils in England.
- [24:35]
Laura Kuenssberg
No. And I'm trying to get Mega May to catch on because I think Mega May is just going to be quite good. So let's. Let's just say now we're going to call it Mega May on newscast. And if other people want to jump on the bandwagon, then marvelous. So it's not just that labor and the Tories expect to get mullard in English council elections to the benefit they reckon of reform. The Lib Dems are probably likely to do quite well, too. The Greens have been riding high as well. So five months out, that's the kind of thing that we expect. But the bigger stories may well be labor losing control of the Senate in Wales, which, from a sort of historic point of view, you know, cut through the valleys and used to see Labour red. Well, they are in dreadful trouble in Wales. Plied are looking very hopeful that they might end up being in charge. But Reform are trying to use Wales also as a test bed of how far they could go with labor voters and those sort of red wall kind of voters. And the only reason I'm using Red wall because you know, I hate that phrase. But here's another important fact that I learned this year from a government source. The Red Wall is also the name of the Welsh football fans. So like the Tartan army in Scotland, the Red wall are the Welsh football supporters.
- [25:48]
Paddy O'Connell
Henry, what do you want to tell us about May's elections that you haven't covered?
- [25:52]
Henry Zeffman
Well, I just think what's fascinating is that it's every vulnerability of the Labour Party tested all at once in different parts of the country. And I think perh that is under discussed in the run up to May. Okay, sure, it's not a nation, but a lot of people live Here is London where all the borough councils are all out elections, which means every London councillor is up for re election. And certainly in inner London there's a lot of Labour politicians who are very concerned that they could lose their wards, but actually control of councils to the Green Party, perhaps to independence. Then in outer London, there's some optimism for reform UK in areas where the Conservatives have historically been strong and the areas where Boris Johnson won his two London mayoral victories on the back of. So I think our capital city's politics are perhaps a little under discussed in the run up to mayor. It's a different set of vulnerabilities to those that are going to be exposed in other parts of the country for the Labour Party. But actually, given so many Labour Party members live in London, I think you could have quite a big interaction with the leadership stuff we've been talking about.
- [26:56]
Laura Kuenssberg
We haven't mentioned my homeland I was.
- [26:58]
Paddy O'Connell
Just about to mention would scoop you.
- [27:00]
Laura Kuenssberg
Excellent. Go for it.
- [27:01]
Paddy O'Connell
Elections to the Scottish Parliament are also happening.
- [27:04]
Laura Kuenssberg
And of course the challenge at Holyrood is whether or not the SNP can hang on after an awful long time in charge. So when Labour won the general election in 24, there was a lot of hope in Scottish Labour ranks that that could be repeated at the Holyrood election. But for its leader, Anas Sarwar, he now faces a much tougher battle because Kir Sammer is just as unpopular in Scotland, or roughly so, as he is in much of the rest of the country. And Reform are also hoping to take a dent out of everybody's vote in Scotland. So that will also be something to watch closely when we get to those May elections.
- [27:35]
Paddy O'Connell
But The London mayor and the head of the police in London have been knocking horns with the U.S. president.
- [27:41]
Laura Kuenssberg
Yes.
- [27:41]
Paddy O'Connell
They have also happened in this news cycle.
- [27:43]
Laura Kuenssberg
So.
- [27:43]
Henry Zeffman
That's right.
- [27:44]
Paddy O'Connell
You've got the politicization of London by the White House.
- [27:47]
Laura Kuenssberg
That's right. I mean, Donald Trump and his gang are always having a go at London, saying it's a terrible place, and always having a go at Sadiq Khan, which has been very awkward for Keir Starmer, because how does he defend his friend without offending his other more powerful.
- [28:00]
Paddy O'Connell
Well, now, this takes tricky one. This was going to be My pick for 2026 is the US midterms. They're coming up. And also the commemoration of 250 years of the US as a republic. They kicked us out. What a rude thing of them to die. And the King is going to go, Henry. And I think the King is not a secret weapon. He's the sort of jewel in the crown of UK diplomacy. I'm mixing my method.
- [28:27]
Laura Kuenssberg
He wear his crown. Imagine if King Charles wears the crown in the Oval Office.
- [28:32]
Paddy O'Connell
I don't think he'll be doing that.
- [28:33]
Laura Kuenssberg
That would be amazing, Henry.
- [28:35]
Paddy O'Connell
It's a. It's a big. A big use of diplomacy there.
- [28:39]
Henry Zeffman
Yeah, absolutely. But I think we're going to hear more and more of the question in 2026 of here in the UK of what has Keir Starmer and the King and Britain actually achieved from all of its diplomacy with the US in 2025. Because in 2025, we've had all sorts of examples of peerless British statecraft, of Keir Starmer in the Oval Office, branching the invitation from the King, of the King welcoming the President for that unprecedented second state visit here to the UK. But we end 2025 across Europe talking about the end of Pax Americana, talking of an America which is more hostile to protecting what I think this UK government and basically everyone across the UK political spectrum would see as Western interests in Europe. And so can British diplomacy in 2026 alter that course or not, I think is such a big and important question.
- [29:32]
Paddy O'Connell
And your own pick for 26. Because Laura and I have done one.
- [29:37]
Henry Zeffman
Well, I mean, this is not a.
- [29:39]
Paddy O'Connell
Laura hasn't done one. Sorry. Laura hasn't done one. You go first and then we go.
- [29:42]
Henry Zeffman
Well, it's not a wildly original point, but, I mean, I think the big question of 2026 in domestic politics is where the economy improves or not. I think economy improves. Then the kinds of questions which we've talked about in almost every Sunday newscast to do with Leadership will start to calm down and if it doesn't, then I think expect more multi party madness and more chaos within the Labour Party specifically as well.
- [30:05]
Paddy O'Connell
And I accidentally airbrushed your 2026 prediction.
- [30:08]
Laura Kuenssberg
Out of the way, so I'm going to make a small one. We've been talking about lots of big things, but I'm going to talk about a kind of niche issue. Do you remember after the budget I said I thought there was going to be a big rare about pub tax?
- [30:20]
Paddy O'Connell
Yes.
- [30:21]
Laura Kuenssberg
Well, landlords around the country, including one Jeremy Clarkson, have started banning labor mps from coming into their boozers because of the pub tax. And to me, this has all the hallmarks of something that might turn into a campaign that captures a certain amount of imagination that in the end could mean that the treasury has to either soften or have another look or delay or just have a bit of a tweak at the changes that they want to make. I might be completely wrong.
- [30:50]
Paddy O'Connell
No, you have been consistently drilling into this issue and I went, probably pushed by you. I went to meet the head of UK hospitality.
- [30:57]
Laura Kuenssberg
I'll never push you to go to the pub party.
- [30:59]
Paddy O'Connell
Well, I had to, reluctantly, because the budget contained measures which the treasury said were designed to help hospitality.
- [31:06]
Laura Kuenssberg
Yes.
- [31:06]
Paddy O'Connell
And also it coincides with the end of the post Covid break. They were given on certain rates and that sort of thing. So that's not their fault, but it is undoubtedly delivering a blow. UK hospitality say the Chancellor has lost thousands of jobs. They blame her directly. And you've been saying for absolute months that this is going to land badly and the boozer and the budget, it are linked and, and you are right to cover it.
- [31:35]
Laura Kuenssberg
Well, we'll see what happens. And I might be completely wrong, but it just. When you see that famous faces start to get involved and campaigners have come up with whether they've done it deliberately as a campaign or whether some landlords started to do it off their own back. Banning mps from their boozers is quite a grabby thing to do if you are looking to start to create a bit of public noise around the issue. So we will see.
- [31:56]
Paddy O'Connell
This is our last gathering, isn't it?
- [31:58]
Laura Kuenssberg
It is. It's our last gathering in the year. And I also want to ask, ask, have you ever dressed up as Santa for the kids in your family?
- [32:04]
Paddy O'Connell
No. Never. Never have I ever.
- [32:06]
Laura Kuenssberg
Never. Too late. You've got 11 days to go and get the Santa suit. So newscasters, let us know if you think that Patty should dress up as Santa.
- [32:12]
Paddy O'Connell
Henry, it's our last. It's our last one of the year.
- [32:15]
Laura Kuenssberg
Stop trying to change the subject.
- [32:16]
Paddy O'Connell
I'm desperate to change the subject, Henry. It's our last one of the year. And it's been lovely spending Sunday mornings with you and Henry at home. I think should become its own children's book.
- [32:27]
Laura Kuenssberg
Henry at Home sounds great.
- [32:29]
Henry Zeffman
And it's a present that no one would want under the tree.
- [32:32]
Laura Kuenssberg
I don't agree at all. It's been lovely to have your company, Henry, helping us unpick what has happened in the whirlwind of actually being in our studios on a Sunday morning. And it's very helpful and entertaining and useful from a journalistic point of view to have you with us as we try to unpick what on earth is going on in the news both here and at Broad.
- [32:54]
Paddy O'Connell
At Broad.
- [32:55]
Laura Kuenssberg
Both here and at home. Both here and abroad. Both at home and abroad. Have a very merry Christmas.
- [33:01]
Paddy O'Connell
Goodbye.
- [33:02]
Henry Zeffman
Goodbye.
- [33:03]
Paddy O'Connell
Newscast.
- [33:04]
Shabana Mahmood
Newscast from the BBC.
- [33:06]
Podcast Host
Well, thank you for making it to the end of another newscast. You clearly ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? And then without having to do anything else, our meandering chat will miraculously make its way to your phone.
- [33:32]
Laura Kuenssberg
What do you think makes the perfect snack?
- [33:34]
AMPM Advertiser
Hmm, it's gotta be when I'm really craving it and it's convenient.
- [33:38]
Laura Kuenssberg
Could you be more specific?
- [33:39]
AMPM Advertiser
When it's cravinient. Okay, like a freshly baked cookie made with real butter, available right down the street at am, pm. Or a savory breakfast sandwich I can grab in just a second at am, pm.
- [33:49]
Laura Kuenssberg
I'm seeing a pattern here.
- [33:50]
AMPM Advertiser
Well, yeah, we're talking about what I.
- [33:51]
Laura Kuenssberg
Crave, which is anything from am, pm.
- [33:53]
AMPM Advertiser
What more could you want? Stop by ampm, where the snacks and drinks are perfectly craveable and convenient. That's cravenience. Ampm. Too much good stuff.