The Iranian President Says Sorry, But Does He Mean It?

Summary

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Newscast (BBC News)

Episode: The Iranian president says sorry, but does he mean it?
Date: March 7, 2026

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Overview

This episode of Newscast delves into Iran’s surprise public apology to its neighbors after recent drone and missile strikes in the Gulf region. Journalists Laura Kuenssberg and Paddy O’Connor interrogate what this apology really means: Is Iran backing down, buying time, or signaling a tactical shift? The show features on-the-ground reporting, a rare interview with Iran's UK ambassador, first-hand testimony from an Iranian protester, and analysis of the war’s growing impact on global economics—including a potential oil shock. The tone is urgent, probing, and at times, strikingly candid.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Speed of Events & Escalation (02:27–03:59)

• Fast-moving Situation:
  Laura and Paddy stress the episode is recorded Saturday afternoon ([02:27]) because events are unfolding rapidly; there may be major developments even by broadcast time.
• Regional Escalation:
  Escalations include Israel’s strikes in Lebanon and, for the first time, direct (and severe) strikes on Iran by both Israel and the US ([02:52]).
• Lebanon’s Role Explained:
  Laura details Lebanon’s place in the conflict, as “a player” due to Hezbollah’s ties to Iran and the broader geopolitics ([03:03]).

2. Iran’s Unprecedented Apology – Sincerity and Motive (03:59–06:03)

• President Pezeshkian’s Statement:
  Iran’s president publicly apologizes for strikes affecting neighbors like Dubai, Qatar, and Kuwait, which is “not the kind of government that would normally come out and say, oh, sorry, we messed up, right?” ([04:26]).

• Motives Questioned:
  Laura asks: Is Iran running low on resources, seeking sympathy, or simply “gone too far”? An apology does not signal de-escalation ([04:45]).

  “For the President to come out this morning and say, oh, sorry to his neighbors for the disruption we've continued really was one of these moments. But...does that actually mean? Does that mean that Iran is now saying sorry for lashing out...or does it mean they are losing their stockpiles?”
  — Laura Kuenssberg, [04:40]

3. Ambassador Sayed Ali Mousavi Interview – Parsing Iran’s Position (06:32–12:16)

• Refusal to Commit to Further Restraint:
  Laura presses Ambassador Sayed Ali Mousavi on whether Iran’s apology means an end to regional strikes. Mousavi repeatedly deflects and issues only conditional statements:

  “It depends on the activities of the American side and Israeli side...If the aggression...is continued, there is no doubt we will defend ourselves.”
  — Sayed Ali Mousavi, [08:43]

• British Military Involvement:
  Laura probes about UK involvement. Mousavi maintains a cautious line, saying the UK is not currently a target, but “if they want to...attack us, there is no doubt that Iran will going to have your own right for self defense” ([10:24]).

• Legitimacy of Western Military Bases as Targets:
  Mousavi suggests that US/Israeli military bases even in Persian Gulf countries are legitimate targets if used against Iran, showing zero retraction from past positions ([11:39]).

• Diplomatic Tension and Atmosphere:
  Laura reflects on the surrealism and tension inside the Iranian embassy, highlighting the constant balancing act of diplomats and recalling the historical siege of the Iranian embassy in London ([12:36–14:02]).

4. Testimony from an Iranian Protester — Yasmin (16:36–18:32)

• Firsthand Account of Protest and Repression:
  Paddy shares a Radio 4 interview with Yasmin, who fled Iran after witnessing state violence in the January protests:

  “It was a significant number of people. They're doing nothing, just chanting, just protesting that all of a sudden they have used live ammunition against them, and at two nights they have done a massive and terrible massacre...”
  — Yasmin, [17:00]

• Complexity of Civilian Feeling:
  Yasmin describes a mix of relief and tragedy upon seeing regime sites bombed: “I have many young friends in Iran now. They are happy because America and Israel are bombing...oppression sides...[but] I am sad about the civilians that are being killed...The cause of it is [the] Islamic regime itself.” ([17:51]–[18:21])

5. Economic Fallout – Oil, Inflation, and Recession Risks (22:40–27:00)

• Expert Analysis by Gillian Tett (Financial Times):
  The Qatar energy minister says the war “could bring down the world’s economies.” Tett details three key risks:
  • Major oil shock via Straits of Hormuz, with the price of oil spiking from $70 to $90 a barrel—some banks warn $150 if escalation continues ([22:59]).
  • Disruption to global food and fertilizer markets, impacting agriculture and prices ([23:59]).
  • Potential pullout of Gulf states’ investments from Western economies, threatening financial markets ([24:15]).
• Compared to Ukraine War:
  This shock could surpass even the recent energy crunch post-Ukraine invasion ([25:25]).
• Mitigating Factors:
  Diversified energy, resilient markets, and entering summer might help, “but for people in Britain...this is not good news at all” ([24:45]).

6. Endgame Unclear — “What Does the End Look Like?” (26:34–29:09)

• Political Scenarios:
  Gillian Tett discusses possible endings: Trump could “chicken out” if markets crash (as in previous crises), the Iranian regime could collapse, or the war could keep spiraling if Netanyahu continues escalation ([27:00]).
• UK Political Repercussions:
  Laura and Paddy speculate about the need for a new cost-of-living bailout if the crisis drags on ([31:09–31:42]), and the mounting headache for Labour’s Keir Starmer as chancellor ([32:18]).

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Notable Quotes

• On Iran’s apology and intent:

  “It absolutely does not mean, I'm afraid to say, that there is any end to this conflict in sight. It does not mean saying, sorry. Oh, everyone's gonna kiss and make up. Far from it.”
  — Laura Kuenssberg, [05:32]

• On Iran's position on further strikes:

  “It depends on them. The aggression of the American side and Israeli regime is continued. There is no doubt we will defend ourselves...”
  — Sayed Ali Mousavi, [08:43]

• On internal protest and regime violence:

  “They’re doing nothing, just chanting, just protesting [and] all of a sudden they have used live ammunition...They have done a massive and terrible massacre.”
  — Yasmin, [17:00]

• On the economic ripple effects:

  “Potentially the biggest oil shock since 1978...already oil is up to about $90 a barrel, up from about 70 very recently. It could easily go 100 even to 150.”
  — Gillian Tett, [22:59]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

| Time | Topic | |------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:27 | Real-time update: Escalation in Lebanon, Iran, Israel | | 03:59 | Iran’s apology – what’s behind it? | | 06:32 | Interview – Sayed Ali Mousavi, Iranian Ambassador to the UK | | 12:36 | Laura’s reflections inside the Iranian embassy, context of embassy siege | | 16:36 | Testimony from Yasmin, protester who fled Iran | | 22:40 | Economic segment: Gillian Tett on global and UK economic risks of the war | | 26:34 | “What does the end look like?” — Possible war and market endgames | | 31:09 | UK domestic impacts: Discussion of possible bailouts and government responses | | 32:55 | Brief on next episode lineup |

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Memorable Moments & Tone

• “Do you mean it?” Laura’s relentless questioning of the ambassador underscored the lack of real policy change behind Iran’s apology.
• Historic context: The memory of the Iranian embassy siege adds gravity to the episode ([12:36–14:02]).
• Direct voices: Protester Yasmin’s vivid account brings home the personal cost, while her complex take on US/Israeli bombing is startling.
• Economic candor: Gillian Tett does not sugarcoat (“...it could be worse. Unfortunately, I don't want to be bearing bad news, but yes...”) ([25:39]).

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Conclusion

This episode of Newscast cuts through official language and geopolitical fog. Iran’s apology is revealed as mostly symbolic—the regime gives no ground. Direct witness testimony and economic analysis underscore the human and practical costs of escalation. The situation remains volatile, both on the ground and for global economies, with new turns likely by the next broadcast.

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Transcript

[Paddy O'Connor]

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[Laura Kuenssberg]

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[Paddy O'Connor]

So with so much news, we'd really like new newscasters to subscribe.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

Yes, so we know Newscasters if you are our old faithful bunch, our wonderful young and old faithful bunch that you've been subscribing to us for some time. But with all the news nami, we know that there are those of you for whom we are relatively new to your luggles. So. So if we are new and we're being helpful and constructive in this confusing world, please do subscribe. And this program where we do our best to try and explain the myriad of events that are unfolding in front of our eyes to you will pop miraculously into your feed and you won't even have to look it up wherever you get your podcasts. So do hit subscribe.

[Paddy O'Connor]

For instance, today Laura's been to meet the Iranian ambassador to the uk.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

I have.

[Paddy O'Connor]

I have been speaking to a woman who fled Iran. We will speak to an economic genius about what kind of cost of living impact they'll be in the uk. We're doing our best on a Saturday to bring together all the journalism on

[Laura Kuenssberg]

this episode of Newscast Newscast Newscast from the BBC. Fat Boy Slim and me in the classroom doing our violin lessons. I was the tattletail in the classroom.

[Paddy O'Connor]

Can I have an apology please?

[Sayed Ali Mousavi]

I trust almost nobody that Daddy has to sometimes use strong language.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

Next time in Moscow. I feel delulu with no Salulu. Take me down the Downing Street.

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Let's go have a tour.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

Blimey.

[Paddy O'Connor]

Hello, it's Paddy in the studio.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

And it's Laura in the studio. And on a day like today, we should say we're recording at 1:37 on Saturday afternoon because there is so much happening, I was going to say at pace, which is a silly phrase that people in Whitehall and politicians use now when they just mean to say we're trying to do it quickly. So let's not say things are happening at pace. Events are moving really, really fast. And by the time this reaches your ears, the there may be more enormous headlines.

[Paddy O'Connor]

Also, we are seeing reports of continued escalation in Lebanon by Israel, as well as a hard hit, the hardest yet this weekend on Iran by Israel and the United States.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

And just a reminder, Lebanon is important in this as a near neighbor of the main protagonists in this war, Iran and Israel, because inside Lebanon, there's perceived to be support and activity by Hezbollah, who many, many people consider to be a terror group, and they have backing of the IR regime. So they are one of the Jigsaw pieces. And, you know, I've been struck by some of the really incredible, important reporting from our colleagues fanning out across the region, across the BBC. But I think it's important to most of us who are not experts in this that whenever we talk about different countries and different groups, I know for one, I often need a reminder of how those Jigsaw pieces all fit together. So that's why Lebanon is a player, because Hezbollah, who are seen as a terror group by many, many people have connections, strong connections to the IR Iranian regime, and therefore Lebanon is also in Israel's sights.

[Paddy O'Connor]

I find it very useful to keep looking at a map. And then there's a couple of things I'm taking away from that, which we'll get to on this newscast. But before we do that, let's turn to the latest release of a video by the Iranian regime. It's its president. He's Massoud Pezest Kian. And this was put out by Iranian state media. And it offers an apology to neighbors there. I am talking about the map, the ones that have been suffering drone and missile strikes from Iran.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

So we're talking about places like Dubai, Qatar, Doha. We're talking about Kuwait. We're talking about countries across the wider Middle east who found themselves with drones falling from the sky onto their airports, sometimes onto homes, sometimes onto hotels. This time last week, we had British tourists caught up in an attack in Dubai. And it's fascinating to hear an apology from a regime like the Iranian government, because that's not the kind of government that would normally come out and say, oh, sorry, we messed up, right? This is a hardcore regime that do not always tell the truth. It is a regime that represses its own people. So for the President to come out this morning and say, oh, sorry to his neighbors for the disruption we've continued really was one of these moments. But then when that news broke this morning, it's like, well, what does that actually mean? Mean? Does that mean that Iran is now saying sorry for lashing out and dropping missiles and drones everywhere? Or does it mean that actually they are losing their stockpiles, that they are losing whatever momentum they had in this first week of conflict? And actually they're saying, oh, goodness me, maybe we need to get some people a bit on side because we've gone too far. What it absolutely does not mean, I'm afraid to say, is that there is any end to this conflict in sight. It does not mean saying, sorry. Oh, everyone's gonna kiss and make up. Far from it.

[Paddy O'Connor]

So this is what the apology says. I deem it necessary to apologize to neighboring countries that were attacked. The President appears in the video next to a photograph of the dead Supreme Leader, Hammini. He's there in a framed photograph. An interim leadership council has decided it won't attack neighboring states unless attacked first, which is open to interpretation. Donald Trump's responded saying they only got this apology because they were hit so hard. You met the ambassador from Iran to the uk.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

That's right. So Sayed Ali Mousavi is the ambassador to the United Kingdom. And it's unusual that he gives interviews. He gave us an interview last year when there was what we were talking about last week, the 12 Day War, when there was a sort of another outburst between these two mortal enemies, Iran and Israel. So I asked him if he was sorry and crucially, what that apology meant. Does it mean that they are going to stop striking countries that have military bases where there are American military assets? Does it mean that Middle Eastern countries are going to not have Iranian drones falling from the sky? No, it does not. This is what you said today.

[Sayed Ali Mousavi]

Our president, President Pysashkian, made one declaration in his remarks. He mentioned that we do not continue this kind of attacks, defensive attacks to our neighborhoods. We have a long history of relations in bilateral, regional and international levels with our brotherly and friendly states in our Persian Gulf. And so we reiterate, again, emphasized on our defensive policy against any aggression or any strikes against the Iranian property, Iranian territorial integrity and Iranian people.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

But to be clear, what exactly will Iran stop doing? Do you still believe that military bases, Americans or Israeli, are legitimate targets in the wider region?

[Sayed Ali Mousavi]

Please, Laura, ask this question from the American side and Israeli regime.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

I'm asking this to you. Your president has apologized for lashing out across your neighbors in the wider Middle east, endangering millions of civilians. Will you stop your attacks on military bases in other parts of the Middle east outside Israel? That's a clear question.

[Sayed Ali Mousavi]

Will you stop that for responding of this question? It depends on the activities of the American side and Israeli side. It is very important. If you want to give me one clear answer, I'm telling to you is a conditional reply to you. It depends on them. The aggression of the American side and Israeli regime is continued. There is no doubt we will defend ourselves. And if they want to use from this military basis, although that we do not want to do that, there is no doubt certainly we will defend ourselves accordingly.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

And with attacks continuing from America and from Israel on Iran, that means as we speak on Saturday afternoon this is going to keep going. And the Iranians have yes said sorry, but they're not going to stop. That was very, very clear sitting hearing from him. I then wanted to know what did that mean for British military assets? British jets have been in the skies in the region intercepting Iranian missiles and drones. We know that a British ship is eventually meant to be getting to the region. We know that there was a strike on the base in Cyprus. So what is the Iranian government's intention towards the British military? Although our anvil involvement in the conflict is not as extensive as the Americans and Israelis because we weren't part of the initial strikes. Britain is involved in this conflict and what the Prime Minister would call collective defense of the area. But Britain is involved. So what does Iran say to that?

[Sayed Ali Mousavi]

Although that we expecting the British government as a one civilized nations to condemn this kind of aggression against anybody including Iran. But so, but now there is no any involvement from the British government. And so it is very important for us. But if they want to using, you know, attacking us, you know there is no doubt that Iran will going to have your own right for self defense. But I do believe that the British government has very very good experience from Iraqi invasion and as well as they know the illegality of this aggression.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

And yet the British government is allowing American jets to use British bases for attacks and British military assets are being used to intercept Iranian attacks in those circumstances are British military assets legitimate targets?

[Sayed Ali Mousavi]

You know we are trying, we are trying to have a very functional and very delicate and careful activities.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

You've been lashing out right across the Middle east to all sorts of countries, endangering civilians across a whole region.

[Sayed Ali Mousavi]

We are defending ourselves. This is very important. Who started this war? American side and Israeli regime.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

But you say the route, but they

[Sayed Ali Mousavi]

are using their bases, military bases from the Persian Gulf countries. Okay, that would be very important, legitimate target for us. We do not want to go to attack anybody. No, we are very delicate. We are very, very careful regarding, for our activities and as well as we do expect for the other people including, including British government to be very delicate, to be very careful for their own activities.

[Paddy O'Connor]

For me, the Iranian embassy must be like a time capture because this regime has been dedicated to the foes of, of Iran, calling Iran America. The great Satan pledged to the destruction of Israel as an entity. And there it is in the middle of the UK capital, this building that you've gone into.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

It's really strange. So there is, there was a small line of protesters outside of anti regime protesters. Just a small crowd at the moment. Although sometimes in recent weeks there have been hundreds of people outside the embassy. But of course for younger newscasters, unlike you and me, people will not remember. That building was also the site of an incredibly dramatic few days in diplomatic history. The siege at that embassy when Iranian gunmen took hostages inside. And it was brought to an end by SAS commandos storming the building. And if you were alive at the time, even if you were 4 years old like me, remember watching the news, I remember seeing it on the news. The, the shots, the images of the storming of that embassy are absolutely incredible. You know, the whole sort of country watched that unfold in front of their eyes. In fact, I think all three TV channels at the time that we had, there were simpler times. Stopped whatever they were broadcasting and everybody watched what happened. Dramatic end of the six day siege. 19 hostages including the three Britons are safe. Kate Ady watched the day's events. The atmosphere seemed calm with just a little tension in the air. Then some men were seen heading across

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from adjacent balconies on the first floor.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

The explosion ripped through the building. A pal of smoke covering the front of it. The SAS had moved in so to be in that building. And the ambassador sort of showed me around a bit. He said well of course this is a very important building for us. This is where that happened, this is where the siege took place. But it's a strange thing also often talking to diplomats because they're paid to represent their country. And when you speak to the Iranians or when you speak to the Russians for example, I always in a sense have a question in my head of what is the human being sitting opposite me really thinking yeah. Are they thinking, this is what I have to say? Because this is my job, to work for a country where I might be in danger if I say something else? Or are they saying, this is what I truly believe at the bottom of my soul? And we conducted our interview sitting next to a huge banner of the Supreme Leader who was killed last week. That was a sort of tribute, talking about condolences that it obviously had made. And in. In just in the last week. And then a picture of the first Diet hall and the second Diadola, portraits of them on the wall looking down on us during the interview. There was a book of condolence that we saw when our camera crew arrived. So at a time like this, I mean, look, there's so many incredibly privileged things that we get to go and do, and people that we get to go and meet in our jobs, but at a time like this, to walk into a small slice of Iran in the middle of our capital city, amazing when our government is trying as hard as it can to pursue a very nuanced position, when Britain is both in and out of this conflict, is a sort of classic Starmer position, if you like. It was very tense and very fraught and just very, very interesting. And we'll play more of that interview tomorrow, because, as you would expect, we also asked him about Iran's nuclear ambitions. And importantly, I want to say this before people are saying, why didn't you ask about this? I asked him a lot about the way in which the Iranian government killed thousands of its own people on its streets in January, who had the courage to go out and protest against the suffering that they are living under. So that is in our interview. We'll probably play a bit of that, too, tomorrow on newscast, and It'll be on BBC1 in the morning.

[Paddy O'Connor]

And by way of understanding this further, I can bring you an interview I've recorded for Radio 4 with a protester we're calling Yasmin, who's fled the country. She was there in January. She describes the hatred for the regime by protesters who took to the streets. When people ask the question, what do Iranians think? There is no single answer.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

No, of course, Iranians think all sorts of different things.

[Paddy O'Connor]

Yeah. And here is one, and this is what she told me at that time,

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I was in Iran. There are people come to street. You know, it was a significant number of people. They're doing nothing, just chanting, just protesting that all of a sudden they have used live ammunition against them, and at two nights they have done a massive and terrible massacre. Many Young people we will mourning on them for more than 40 or 50 days. It was a terrible, terrible condition and experience for all of the people. But we were desperate. So we have started to ask help from other countries, especially US and Israel.

[Paddy O'Connor]

But then, you know the word help, is that the same as bombing? Did you expect this amount of bombing? And when you see the pictures of Tehran being bombed, do you think that's helped?

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I have many young friends in Iran now. They are happy because America and Israel are bombing all the places that have been places as an oppression side. They have been people who have killed our friends. Now they are being killed. Isn't it fair enough? I know Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are not worried about our own prosperity.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

But it is a time in history

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that our benefits have crossed.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

I am sad.

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I am sad about the non civilians that are being killed. I'm deeply sad. But Israel and USA are not the cause of it. The cause of it is Islamic regime itself.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

It's really striking to hear that, Pat, isn't it?

[Paddy O'Connor]

And war is a bad thing. Everyone agrees wars are better when they stop. This is about the clock, everyone. And we'll talk to about the economy in a moment. Everyone in the world wants to know what does the end look like and when is the end.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

And the debate though about the causes will run forever. People will run and argue about this for decades and probably even 100 years to come. But just to hear the voice of people who have been so caught up in it, in their lives is very important for everybody to to hear and also just to remember it is only a few, few weeks ago when the world was seeing only a fraction of the images that came out from those protests. Before going to speak to the ambassador, I watched some of the video and looked at some of the images of, I'm afraid to say the bodies and people who'd been badly beaten and killed and shot. Some of the images that have been independently checked and verified by our teams here at the BBC who do a very important job looking at this footage that comes out and looking at those images of body bags being littered in the courtyard of a mortuary in Tehran and looking then at the bodies that families in their thousands will have had to go and identify. It brings home that for people like Yasmin, that's what's at stake here while all the high politics rage. And of course there's no one view, there's no one view in Iran, there's no one view in America, there's no one view in the uk. But that slice of life and that terrible toll is something that is really important to reflect on. But whether you like it or not, I'm afraid, newscasters, that it does also have an effect on us here, not in terms of that kind of violence, but in terms of the bread and butter, how we pay to fill up our cars, how we pay to keep the lights on, how businesses pay to keep the lights on. And the economic effects of this could be really, really serious. So as promised, super brain Julian Tet, columnist with the Financial Times and also running King's College Cambridge, joins us. Gillian, thanks very much indeed for joining us on NEWSCAST this afternoon.

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[Laura Kuenssberg]

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[Paddy O'Connor]

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[Laura Kuenssberg]

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[Laura Kuenssberg]

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[Paddy O'Connor]

So the Qatar energy minister said that this war could bring down the world's economies. Now that's linked to what I was suggesting to Laura is linked to the clock because he's not saying it's happening now. Gillian, can you tell me the link between the length of this war and the economies of the uk?

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Well, a number of investment banks now are forecasting about a 60 to 70% chance of a global recession as a result of this war if it continues. And that's really down to three things. Firstly, what we're seeing is potentially the biggest oil shock since 1978, and under some measures could be even bigger. And that means we're seeing essentially the flow of not just oil, but also liquid natural gas being very severely disrupted, because the Straits of Hormuz typically carries about 20% of the global oil and gas market, but the impact is much bigger. So that's the first question. Are energy prices going to jump? And already we've seen the main benchmark price of oil go up to about $90 a barrel, up from about 70 very recently. It could easily go 100 even to 150. Some banks are saying if that continues. Second big problem is that the Strait of Hormuz also carries a number of other key commodities. And in particular, things like boring old fertilizer are going be very disrupted in terms of the supply chains. That has big implications for global food prices and agriculture as well. And that's in many ways equally serious. And then on top of that, you've got the third problem, which is the Gulf states have said that they are thinking of taking back the investments they've made in the Western countries, particularly America, in order to keep their financial resources at home and protect themselves. And if they do that, you could actually see a very nasty jolt to the financial markets. Well, so you put those three things together, there are other knock on implications as well, but put those three things together and it's potentially a very worrying scenario. Now, the mitigating points are that one, the global economy was actually in okay ish shape before this started, so we're not starting from a really weak base, thank heavens. Secondly, when it comes to energy, the world's become a lot more diversified in recent years because of the embrace of renewables. And thirdly, thus far, the financial markets have not seriously panicked. Many people are warning that they're far too complacent, but they haven't panicked yet. So fingers and toes crossed, it won't be as bad as some people are thinking. But for people in Britain, which is heavily exposed to energy price swings, has some of the highest, most expensive energy prices already in the developed world, this is not good news at all.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

And Julian, I was struck you said there it could be the worst energy shock since the 70s, but we've only just sort of got through another one in this country, of course, the energy shock that there was after the invasion of Ukraine.

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So this could be worse if, if this continues for some time. Yes, it could be worse. Unfortunately, I don't want to be bearing bad news, but yes, you can see that. In response to a number of people who are staring at this closely, I mean, just one tiny example, someone like Greg Jackson, the CEO of Octopus, who came and spoke in Cambridge April yesterday, did a brilliant talk and someone like him who's devoted his life to renewables and to championing, in his case, heat pumps, he's now saying the situation is so grave that it's time for us to start looking at North Sea fossil fuel reserves, at least for a while, to try and ameliorate the potential shock for ordinary consumers that could be coming down the tracks. And thankfully this is happening as we go into summer, thank heavens. So that's again, good news. We won't be needing as much energy for heating houses and things like that. But again, at this time, you know, normally in summer, people refill their reserves and if we're going to see a really nasty squeeze that will get harder

[Paddy O'Connor]

for the next year, I just wanted to say you used this phrase, if it keeps going, if it continues, this is the key question for the world, for everybody, for Iranians, for Israelis, for Americans, for the people in Lebanon, for British homeowners, for British bill payers, for newscasters, what brings this to an end and what does the end look like? And with all the people you're speaking to from your newspaper and academia, do you have an answer for us? Gillian?

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Well, if it continues, it's not a simple question, because it's not just a question of whether war continues in general. What has caused particular alarm is the fact that this war has spread across the Gulf because Iran has been attacking other Gulf states around it. And that is particularly threatening because nobody until now thought that the oil and gas terminals and ports in places like Qatar and Saudi and elsewhere would be vulnerable. Nor did people expect that Iran would attack, say, data centers owned by Amazon or Microsoft, which is done in the last couple of days, or at least they have been attacked. And so if Iran continues to attack the Gulf region as a whole, that has much more serious implications than a strike which is contained, or rather a fight that's contained just inside Iran. That's not meaning to in any way minimize the horror of what's going on. What is going on is absolute horror in every sense and has been for several months now. You just heard about the attacks of the Iranian regime on its own people, which is horrific. But that really changes the constellation a bit in terms of what might bring it to an end. So the question that people are asking is whether the TACO acronym Trump always chickens out is going to hold or not. Because there is a chance that if the markets really do start crashing, Trump may panic and then suddenly say, I'm going to withdraw my troops, stop the war, etc. Etc. That pattern has been seen over and over again in the last 18 months since he came to power, or 14 months where essentially the markets are crashed and Trump's pulled back. So the Trump always chickens out theory might indeed hold true and that might bring things to an end. Alternatively, the Iranian regime could obviously implode completely, or you end up in a situation where it keeps spiraling. The great unknown right now, though, is whether Netanyahu is willing to countenance any de escalation or not. Because certainly up until now, it looks as if Netanyahu wants to simply keep increasing the escalation, not de escalate.

[Paddy O'Connor]

Gillian, thank you so much.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

Thank you, Gillian.

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Thank you.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

But Paddy, of course, the clues then that people are really looking at, given that we know exactly what Netanyahu wants to do, is how long and how far, as Gillian was saying, is Donald Trump himself willing to continue. Someone in the intelligence community was saying to me, look, actually, if he decides to change his mind, they were saying, I can't believe you do it for very long, because he doesn't like the notion of long, protracted wars. Remember, he told his MAGA fans, his base of voters, that he didn't want to do in foreign wars. He could say, well, I got the Ayatollah, because actually the leader of Iran, the Supreme Leader, was killed within a couple of days at the beginning of the conflict and then up 6. Or on the other hand, he could try to stay the course until the regime completely collapses and there is a change of government. What we've seen from the Trump administration, as newscasters have heard from Adam and our other colleagues through the week, is that America's constantly shifting position, no one can tell what they really want to do. Because guess what? Donald Trump says different things on different days. Guess what? The man who calls himself the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, pops up and then says something else while also standing and boasting about the American military's behavior and what he sees as their successes in quite extraordinary ways. And until those clues actually give clarity, it is impossible to know how long this is going to go on for. And therefore it is impossible to know if you're in Iran or if you're in the Middle east, how long your life might be directly disrupted or how much, how long you might have to live with that threat of danger. And in this country, if you're a normal person or if you're a politician who's got to make decisions, you've got no idea if this is all going to be over soon or if in three, six months time you might be a Prime Minister thinking, oh, my God, am I going to have to find billions of pounds of taxpayers money that I don't really have in order to help people put their money, put the heating on?

[Paddy O'Connor]

Well, on that, there's a. There's a writing in the Times today saying there could be plans within a month if it goes on that long, for another bailout of households. We had. We, we always say on here in the simpler sentence, Liz Truss paid Laura Kunstberg's gas bill and Patty o', Connor, but I prefer to say yours. Why? Well, I just think it's clearer. It's much more.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

Because I have the headline grabbing, like in every house in the country arguments. Turn it up a bit. Turn it down a bit. Turn it up a bit. A bit, Turn it down a bit.

[Paddy O'Connor]

It's true. We have had this massive intervention and we had the intervention of the pandemic, we had the people paid not to work.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

And that goes on to the enormous national debt that the government says it wants to get down, that people say shouldn't be there at the same time that they're trying to find extra cash for defense spending and all the rest. And I think you're right. Government, without question, will already be thinking, oh, my God, if we had to do that, how would we do it? I'm sure they're looking at it in the treasury, but given the way the nation's finances are, just when they think things are starting to turn the corner and they want to tell people that the cost of living is coming down and getting easier to bear, all of this is frankly the last thing that Keir Starmer needs.

[Paddy O'Connor]

And that's why we did the economics of the war with Gillian Tet. But we also, in this newscast, brought you the. An eyewitness to the suffering inflicted by the regime on its own people. Laura's also been speaking to the regime, the ambassador here to the uk, and that's sort of the best we can do for Saturday.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

Well, we've tried our best paddock as we normally do. What are you doing tomorrow on the program?

[Paddy O'Connor]

Well, we're going to look in detail at the UK's knock on effect from the halt in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. We're also going to do the very latest picture of warfare in Lebanon because that's part of the escalation that we're watching this weekend.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

We will have Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary will be live with us in the studio tomorrow morning along with Robert Jenrick, who is a senior member Reform uk. The former Defense Secretary Penny Mordaunt will be with us at Christian Amanpur, legendary broadcaster, an expert on all things Middle east, will be with us too, along with Zara Sultana, who of course is a prominent politician on the left of politics, who is someone from that strand of opinion that thinks the UK should not have anything to do with this whatsoever. So no doubt we'll have quite lively conversation tomorrow and we'll bring you in full our interview with the Iranian ambassador and we will play you tomorrow on newscast what he had to say about the protests on Iran's streets.

[Paddy O'Connor]

I listen to your lineup and I say how will you get them to talk?

[Laura Kuenssberg]

It's very different every week. There was such a bunch of wallflowers getting them to answer the question. However, that's an entirely different matter for which you sometimes need the waggy finger or lean forward point pen is another little trick. It doesn't always work.

[Paddy O'Connor]

Well, I should say that if you are listening to newscast rather than devouring it in a visual way.

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Yeah.

[Paddy O'Connor]

Laura is wagging her finger at me and I feel ready to answer any question but we've out of time. We're out of time. Time has defeated us. So thank you very much for joining Saturday's Newscast. We hope you'll do it all again on Sunday.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

We do. And if you're new, do hit Subscribe. I hate saying that sounds a bit, but you're wagging your finger. Subscribe. That's not a way though to make people feel good, is it? Really pleased. Subscribe. Catch more with honey than vinegar.

[Paddy O'Connor]

Thanks for listening and goodbye.

[Laura Kuenssberg]

Bye. Newscast Newscast from the BBC.

[Paddy O'Connor]

Thank you so much for making it to the end of Newscast. You clearly copyright Chris Mason Ooze Stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Don't forget, you can email us anytime. It's newscastbc.co.uk and if you would like to join our discord community to talk about everything newscast related. There is a link in the description of this podcast and don't be scared. It's super easy to click on it and then get set up. Or you can WhatsApp us on 033-01-239480 and I promise you we read and listen to every single message. Thanks for listening to this podcast by.

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