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A
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk.
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C
Alex. Hello again.
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D
Hello, Adam.
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C
And hello fellow newscasters at the hey Festival. Hello. Breaking news. It's very, very hot here at Hay. Beautiful sunny day. I'm not complaining. It's very hot elsewhere in the country. Lots of place places breaking May temperature records. I wondered if there's anyone in the audience who's got a tip for keeping cool that they'd maybe like to share with newscasters across the country and across the world for keeping cool. Is that. Oh, the woman's waiting. Well, having a watermelon fan, by the looks of things. Shaped fan. It's not a watermelon. Hello there. What's your name?
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D
Charlotte.
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C
What's your top tip?
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E
This fan. A fan.
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C
Should we see if we can create some sound effects? Great. She's broken her kit. Thanks. No, but that was a good tip. Fan. Yes. The old tech, I think is sometimes the best. Anyone else on the other side of the tent got an idea? Alex, why don't you go over there?
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D
Hello. What's your name, sir?
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A
Hi, my name's Chris.
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D
Hello, Chris. What's your top tip for keeping cool?
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A
On the way to work, do your washing beforehand and just put a wet shirt straight on.
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D
That is a brilliant idea. Is it dry by the time you get to work? Normally?
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A
Usually, yeah. I'm in the car a lot, so yeah.
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D
That's fantastic. I mean, my top tip for keeping cool is maybe don't sit in a massive tent with loads of people, but we're very glad you're here.
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C
My personal favorite that I learned a couple of years ago. Do you remember when it was really, really hot a couple of years ago and we had the huge records of heat waves was freeze a bottle of water and then put it in front of a fan overnight and it's basically your own cheap air con and also with no carbon emissions. So it's good for climate change and it helps you Sleep. Right, Alex, shall we get on with
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D
this episode of Newscast. Newscast, Newscast from the BBC, humanity's next great voyage begins.
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A
We are in the midst of a rupture.
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D
Nostalgia will not bring back the old order.
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C
Six, seven.
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A
Yeah, it's supposed to be me as a doctor.
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C
Daddy has. Has also a special quotation.
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D
Ooh la la. Thinking about it like a panto helped. Do we play music now or what do we do?
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C
Hello, it's Adam in the newscast tent at the Hay Festival.
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D
And it's Alex in the newscast tent at the Hay Festival.
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C
And hello, newscasters who are here. And also to keep us company in this very hot tent, please welcome our guest for today, Patrick McGuire, who's the chief political commentator for the Times. Hello, Patrick, come on in. Hello.
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A
Good afternoon.
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C
Have you been signing copies of your book here?
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A
I have. I sold a few.
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C
Oh, wow. Congratulations. Right, so, Alex, we're recording this episode of Newscast on Bank Holiday Monday at five past one. The big breaking news in the last couple of hours was in Edinburgh, where Peter Murrell, the former chief executive of the Scottish National Party, former husband of Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister, has pleaded guilty to embezzlement. So I was going to say ending quite a. Oh, so breaking news for the audience here too, that's we're here to serve. So I was going to say, bringing an end to quite a long running story in Scottish politics, but actually it's not necessarily the end yet, but sort of bring us up to date for Monday.
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D
Yeah, I mean, just a tiny bit of background which we can get into more. But so people know this has really been going on since 2021, when there was a police investigation into the SNP's finances. Lots of stuff has happened since then, which we'll talk about, but this big news today is that Peter Morrill, who was the chief executive of the SNP for more than 20 years, he has pleaded guilty to embezzling £400,000 worth of goods, money that was effectively meant for the SNP that he was charged and tasked to some degree with managing. And there's a lot of detail in there about the kind of goods that he's purchased. He's been remanded in custody after that guilty plea. So he was in court this morning. That is a really significant development after what has now really been a five year police investigation with all of the ramifications that it's had for the snp.
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C
And just in terms of going forward in a few days time, we'll get some more detail from the judge about what he thinks went on in this case and then we'll get the sentencing exactly right.
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D
But we've already heard from some of the senior police officers who were involved in this very, very lengthy and I think fair to say, complex and incredibly high profile investigation. And one of the Police Scotland officers said that Morrell had abused his privileged position to bankroll a lavish lifestyle he craved but could not afford. I think it gives you a sense of just how serious the judicial system is going to take this.
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C
And Pat, I mean, Peter Morrell wasn't a household name across the UK when he was in his job. I mean, he's become a household name now because of this story in this case. But he was a very important figure in the snp.
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A
Yeah, of course he was. You cannot understand the story of how the SNP came to become the predominant force in Scottish politics for two decades now, then about to. They've just won a term that will take them into their third decade in power. Fourth decade in power, actually from 2007 to this term ending in 2031. Without understanding Peter Morrell and that power couple he was one half of. He is a name as significant as Alex Salmon, Nicola Sturgeon, Angus Robertson. And it's the end of an era in SMP politics. And obviously the trial took place after the elections to avoid the impression of it being influenced. But it is interesting that this, this has all happened like this story has been going on, but the SNP have just won a full term. Yeah. It goes to show, actually he built something that was almost gravity defying and so gravity defined that it's, you know, survived his own legal troubles.
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C
Yeah. And Alex, just in terms of that, not, not to turn you into a legal expert on the spot.
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D
Please don't.
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C
Well, let's see how it goes. Okay, this is embezzlement, which is different from theft. And also people might see some sort of wild sounding items floating around. Just explain where that's coming from.
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D
Yeah, because we've had some details. In fact, the BBC actually applied to the court to get a list of the details that are involved in this embezzlement. So isn't the difference. And I'm not a legal expert, so forgive me if I get this slightly wrong, but effectively he hasn't gone and stolen something, he was put in charge of stuff and he's used it for his own ends and means instead. So it's a slightly different thing. But you know, they're talking about luxury items that are included in this. Jewelry, cosmetics, two cars, a motorhome. People might remember there was this kind of famous image of the motorhome outside of a property which came a huge part of this investigation. Now he's bought that motorhome using money that was meant to be for the SMP that he's now, according to what he's admitted to himself, has used for his own personal gain.
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C
And we've had a statement on Instagram, intriguingly, yeah, from Nicola Sturgeon. But then maybe it's not intriguing because she's not a politician anymore, she's the ex First Minister, she's an ex member of the Scottish Parliament. And actually she sort of lives a more kind of Instagrammy life now, doesn't she?
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D
Yeah, she does, she does. And it's worth obviously remembering that in the context of this long running investigation, Nicola Sturgeon herself was arrested as part of Operation Branch form, the name of the police investigation into this, as was Colin Beatty, who was the former SNP treasurer. They were then released and then they were told last year that they were no longer under investigation. Nicholas Durchin's put out this statement. She said, I'm angry, hurt, sad and very distressed about the impact of his, her ex husband's actions on family, friends and the snp. To be deceived and let down by the husband I loved and trusted will cause me acute pain. Why he acted as he did will always be beyond my comprehension. So making it very clear again, as she has done before, that the police did look into Nicola Sturgeon as part of this, but she was told that no action was brought against her. She isn't a politician anymore, but you can't forget how much of a high profile role and figure Nicola Sturgeon was, not just in Scottish politics, but in the SNP for such a long period of time. And there was this, obviously this dynamic where you had her former husband, Peter Murrell, who was the chief executive of the snp, Nicola Sturgeon, as the leader of the party and the First Minister. So they kind of dominated SNP politics for a hugely significant period of time. And after Nicola Sturgeon's resignation and then this police investigation that followed with this partial conclusion now around Peter Murrell with further legal steps to follow, it did create a huge period of instability for a party that had been so dominant really in the immediate run up and then subsequently after the 2014 independence referendum.
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C
And Patrick, I'll ask you a bit more politics in a second, but just before we do that. The other bit of Nicola Sturgeon's statement I thought was quite interesting was when she talked about I am still healing from the trauma of this, which to some people will be a sort of emotional openness that is quite unusual from a politician. Other people might think it's a bit therapy. Speak. Ish. But as we're at a book festival, it reminds me of reading Nicola Sturgeon's autobiography last year and then talking to her about it.
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D
You interviewed her about it as well?
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C
Yeah. Presumably still available on BBC Sounds and you can watch it on iplayer. And actually, I was struck by. She was trying to find a new language for politicians memoirs when she was writing that book. That was a lot more emotionally honest. And so I thought it was intriguing that even in her statement today, she's trying to speak. Yeah, much more. Much more emotionally.
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D
And there's some people that have actually said that that's a really good thing to hear from politicians. There have been others who've been fairly critical of that approach. It's worth noting, but it is a departure from what you've seen and heard sometimes before from former leaders, especially not long after they've left office, because that was the other thing. Nicola Sturgeon came out with her memoir not that long after she'd been, you know, heading the Scottish government for a long period.
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C
And of course, Nicola Sturgeon was the most political of politicians.
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D
Yes.
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C
Just like some. Some person that was plucked from obscurity. She had spent her entire life doing politics, so maybe there was a bit of reinvention going on in there as well. Patrick, do you have a theory then, about how. How the SNP managed to like, defy gravity? Little wicked reference there. To have such huge electoral success while having all sorts of scandals like this one, and then they lost a whole series of first ministers in quite a bad way.
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A
Well, I guess there are two quite short and simple answers to that. The first is that the constitutional debate in Scotland means the SNP's floor, so long as there is no more attractive
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C
floor, as in ground, not floor, floor
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A
with two O's, Fluor, as they might say in parts of Lancashire, as they. As people in. People in Hindley and Ince and Ashley Makerfield that are all voting on the next Prime Minister. That's how they.
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C
Slick, slick.
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A
There you go. There you go. Is higher than any other part than comparable parties. Right. Because save for, I mean, Alex Salmon tried it. You know, some people think the Greens might end up in this space, but as long as there's no serious pro independence rival, there'll be, you know, 30%, 33%, the Scottish public who always vote SMP regardless, because independence is the most important thing to them, right? So that gives them a higher floor. And when Keir Starmer's as unpopular as he is, and when the national labor government is in popular as it is, and I saw, obviously tried to get out ahead of that in February when he called for the Prime Minister to go, failed, it means that the snp, comparatively, have to do a lot less than any other political party, certainly than Scottish Labour, to, you know, retain their largest party states in Holyrood. So it's, you know, it seems crazy, if you think about it, winning a fourth successive term when so many of the key indicators, health, education, you know, general sort of standards in public life are flashing red on the dashboard. But look at the alternatives and look at the sort of constitutional factor, too.
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D
It's interesting because there was, for a long time, this period that I talked about of sort of dominance of the S and P, where you had Alex Salmon and Nicola Sturgeon, who initially were obviously this very close partnership, and then there was some falling out, and then Nicola Sturgeon took over as First Minister for a long period, and then there was this really rapid period of instability. We had Nicola Sturgeon resign, then you had Hamza Yousef, and then the party felt like it was in a very turbulent period. John Swinney, who came in as First Minister after that, I think he was seen by many as a kind of safe pair of hands, almost bought in to restore a sense of stability in the snp, because he's a guy that's been around the party for a very long time. He came in as First Minister not as a new fresh face or a new kid on the block, promising something kind of radically different. And he almost started talking initially not so much about the constitutional question, but what he was calling the bread and butter. So things like education, cost of living, nhs, public services. So I think for the snp, they were, you know, with that. John Swinney seems to have done kind of borne out by the recent Hollywood election results, restored a sense of calm, despite the fact that I think anybody would have to acknowledge it's been a really turbulent period for the party, if you take it in the round of the last kind of five years.
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C
And you mentioned Anas Sarwar. So is he staying on as Scottish Labour leader even though they did not do well in the Scottish Parliament?
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A
Well, it was suggested to me the other day by Scottish Labour figure that he had vowed Salwa, had vowed not to resign until Keir Starmer resigned. So, as you know, not to be beaten to it by the man whose head he called for in February, he is in an invidious position in that. Most of what happened in the local, in the Scottish Parliament elections, you can't really realistically say was his fault. The National Government was so unpopular. Keir Starmer was so unpopular. I mean, you do hear people in Scottish Labour saying, well, we ran a presidential campaign, it was all about Annas for first minister. But ultimately they were never going to elect a Scottish Labour first minister. They were that angry with the Labour Party. So he probably, you know, there is an expectation that he will go at some point, but it's not as if changing the leader in Scotland is going to solve anything for the Scottish Labour Party.
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C
Right, talking of elections, we're doing, you know, we're doing by election cast during the three by elections that are happening in the next few weeks. And we. The plan is to record that on a Friday and then put it in the podcast feed on Friday. But there seems to be so much happening in Makerfield in particular, we thought maybe we'd do a little impromptu by election cast right now. So, Patrick, you've been to the constituency in the last couple of days, like, give it. Give us a field report of what it was like on the ground.
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A
What it was like on the ground. Well, I have to say, driving into Ashton Makerfield on Friday, I saw five lobby journalists within, political journalists within the space of about a minute and 100 meters. And I thought, God, these poor, poor people.
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C
You mean the voters.
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A
Yeah, the voters got not. I mean, I mean, look, ultimately the main political story of any day is won't somebody please think of the journalists. But, you know, the people of. The people of. Yeah, the, that bit of Wiganburgh are in for. I don't think a single person in that constituency is not going to be vox pop. Look, it was as it seems from afar. You know, there is a lot of admiration for Andy Burnham. I think all sides agree on that. He is local, he lives just over the constituency boundary reform as they always are at by elections now completely ubiquitous. So you see a lot of legislators.
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C
What does that mean in practice?
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A
Well, as in, you can see the reform, you can see the reform people, you can see them brandishing their reform correct boards. You know, they have a presence. But something that both Reform and Labour people have said to me is there is another force, an unexpected force in this Restore Britain, the party set up by Rupert Lowe, the former Reform MP who's kicked out reform by Nigel Farage last year, set up his own party significantly to the right of to the right of Reform and Cabinet minister said to me on Saturday, you know, yes, a lot of love for Andy, it's going to be hard for the Labour Party but the thing that most struck me is this Restore Britain Law are a real thing. I saw them canvassing, people were mentioning them on the doorstep. It was a real thing in a way that nobody has quite expected. Right.
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C
And Alex, we got an opinion poll over the weekend. Just explain what that poll was and also why we should. Why it's interesting but there's some caveats.
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D
Yeah, well, I would caveat any poll with a dose of salt, to be honest, because I think we've all seen polls before that have just been completely wrong and I think there cannot be an over reliance on polls. But that isn't to say they're not interesting and can be insightful, but I think as long as you treat them in that kind of vein of let's be slightly skeptical about what the polls say and then let's analyze it anyway. Why have not. But this.
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C
And also the parties are reacting to it. So it's not just us talking about.
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D
I mean this is the thing about polls and let's not do a whole thesis on polling, but the thing about polls is that they can actually influence a campaign in the way that parties behave and voters behave. So which is why you have to be cautious with how much weight you put on any one given poll. So the context of this one, it was a survey poll, but it was a very small sample, so 369 respondents. So that's the key context, I. E. Don't take this as completely red that this is going to be the situation, but that one poll found that Labour were ahead on 43%, reform on 40%. And then to Patrick's point, Rupert Lowe's party, Restore Britain were on 7%, which might sound like a small number obviously overall, but when you put that in the context of what is apparently shaping up to be a very hotly fought contest, if that 7% and this is. I don't know this would be true, but you would assume that's most likely to come from potential reform voters, then that could be consequential because obviously if it becomes a tight race between Labour and Reform, there are other parties in the mix too. But I think that's largely how it's being read and certainly being fought. Then if Restore eat into Reform's vote, then that could have a consequence. And this is quite interesting for Nigel Farage's party in particular, because you've Got to remember, this is the party that's been eaten to everyone else's vote for the last couple of years and suddenly they're going, hang on, someone's having a go at ours.
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C
Where's my lunch gone?
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D
Yeah, exactly.
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C
And then was I talking of books? I was rereading Tim Shipman's book, All Out War, about the Brexit, about the Brexit campaigns. Because of course, it's the 10, 10th anniversary. Well, I was gonna say coming up, but of course it's the anniversary of the campaign the whole time. And I think it was Linton Crosby said that polls are actors. Polls can have an effect on the campaign because people react to them, even though they're meant to be just a snapshot of opinion, they become the take on a life of their.
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A
Well, totally recall, by the way, we were just talking about the snp. It's relevant here as well. The Sunday Times poll weekend before the Scottish independence referendum that had yes ahead for the first time, that changed the constitutional policy of this country. And what's interesting is speaking to people around Nigel Farage, when that Sunday Times poll came out, you're right, polls are actors. It's going to affect their strategy. It's now all about squeezing that restore vote down insofar as they can, because they look at it and think, we're three points behind the Labour Party. There's this big reform restore vote. Can we squeeze that? But then that invites the question, well, how are they going to squeeze it? What's their squeeze message to a party that is to their right? Is it just, you know, you hate the Labour Party too, don't do anything stupid and, you know, let Andy Burnham in? Or will they be. Will they be looking right, you know, and does that in turn have an impact on how they're seen by reform curious voters who might also want to vote for Andy Burnham? So they could have lots of unintended consequences. But Lyndon Crosby was right. These polls are our actors and it's going to be a very compelling show.
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C
And I remember that 2014 Scottish Independence Poll, and it's a bank holiday and we're at a festival. I think we can reminisce rather than just the day's news, like in real time, because I was on shift on the early shift the day that that poll came out, and I remember, yeah, the massive panic from the. From the Unionist campaign and the Unionist political parties. And then they canceled Prime Minister's questions that week and all the leaders went to Scotland. And I remember thinking, I'm not necessarily sure that's gonna help your argument. And then of course Gordon Brown issued the vow.
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A
Yes.
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C
Famous pledge of more devolution to the Scottish world.
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A
Was that the week they activated the Queen to issue her veiled.
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C
I think that had already.
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A
That already happened.
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C
I think that already happened. But I need to go back and read someone else's book. If I could read Joe Pike's book about that. That'll be in there right back to now. So I'll just. Lovely little reverie about 2014. That early shift. Probably one of the most exciting early shifts.
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A
Reading Proust. Adam here.
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C
Yes, well any, any Proust readers in the audience?
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A
Oh, one or two.
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C
One or two, yes. Love this crowd. Love this crowd. So yeah, back to. Back to Makerfield. Yes. So right now we're sort of waiting for the Green candidate and this is to be announced. This is their second go, isn't it?
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D
Yeah. So first thing I'll say, and I say this not just as a kind of public service duty because it's genuinely important to remember there's going to be a lot of coverage of this by election and there are a rang of candidates standing and you can find a list of all the candidates names on the BBC News website and I'm going
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C
to read them out at the end of this discussion.
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D
Good work. But it's genuinely important to remember that because this is obviously going to be dominated by a couple of key figures but it's only fair that everybody gets a fair crack. So. But yeah, so the Green Party announced their candidate last week and then within almost a matter of hours, I think I'm right in saying the candidate said that they were standing down citing personal and family reasons and then subsequently emerged that they'd made some posts, social media posts about the attack on the Jewish community suggesting it was a false flag attack. Now the candidate has apologised for that but the BBC understands, it's told that that was some of the reason for that candidate withdrawing. So now the Green Party are in the process of selecting another candidate to fight the makefield by election and we might get that name today. As far as I understand it, obviously the Greens are a hugely key factor in this race as well because as we were just discussing about the potential of Rupert Lowe's Restore to eat into the reform UK vote, what the Green Party may do is have a real impact on the Labour vote. So there was actually a little bit of chat right at the beginning before this by election was even officially underway with some figures in the Green Party, Caroline Lucas the former Green Party leader and former Brighton mp, very high profile figure in the Green Party. She was even suggesting that maybe the Greens shouldn't contest this by election to allow Labour a clearer run against Reform uk. Now, that hasn't happened. The Green Party has said, we want to show we're a competitive party under Zak Polanski. They feel like they've got real momentum and verve right now. So they are putting a candidate into this race. And again, that dynamic on the kind of very broadly speaking left. The impact of the Greens on the Labour vote will be fascinating because if you remember Gorton and Denton, the other Greater Manchester, by election we had where the Green Party won, they had managed to position themselves as a sort of main opposition to Reform uk. I think it's broadly felt because of the profile of Andy Burnham in Makerfield, that that sits with Labour. But what the Greens do here is
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C
going to be interesting and on Reform. Pat, what was the amazing metaphor you had in your column on Friday about what Reform had been doing recently? Did you say. Did they say that they'd had it was one night stands or was it someone else's own?
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A
I think it might have been mine. That what Farage is the hangover of his one repeated one night stands with Tory defectors.
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C
Yes. Metaphor alerts metaphor.
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A
As we, as we write in a newspaper, you'd write, please legal in capital
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C
square brackets, explain what that metaphor was, because I thought it was intriguing because it reveals something about how reform have had a few sort of phases.
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A
Yes, exactly. So, look, start this year. Reform, you know, who are as much an anti. They started life as an anti Tory party. Right. They're an anti. They are, you know, not just to the right of the Tory Party, but opposed to the Tory Party right. Nigel Farage has always been. His mission has always been to destroy the Tory Party. Right. I'm not even exaggerating. That's not hyperbolic. That's what he said. Anyway, he. At the start of this year, though, Reform were a bit spooked by a lot of Westminster chat about Kemi Badenoch coming back. She's bouncing, you know, she is the coming force in British politics.
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C
Better at PMQs.
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A
Yeah, exactly. And they were determined to shut it down, which they did with a series of Tory defections. Robert Jemrich, Soella Braverman, Nadeem Zahawi, all of which you could sort of make arguments for on their own terms. But it got to sort of February, March, and it was clear to Farage and his inner team that the cumulative effect of those had been to make them look like the Tories, which is not what they're in business to do. So they have resolved to return to a sort of purer form of anti politics. Right. A sort of pure populism. Less of the sort of like, well this is fully costed or you know, we love the OBR and the independence of the bank of England. It's going back to pure vibes based populism. Which is interesting because Andy Burnham is offering the same thing. Indeed, Zach Polanski sort of offers the same thing as well in terms of what he does. And it's a sort of, it is a sort of, it's, it's, it's anti politics. It is not sort of Toryism with attitude. It is something entirely different. They're trying to get back to that.
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D
And that's so interesting because Nigel Farage really for a long time built his reputation on what he would see, and some people would disagree, as being the man outside the tent who was kind of prepared to. And he did it through the Brexit referendum. He did it with his long term Euroscepticism. You know, he liked to present himself as the kind of man of the people against the establishment. But then there was this strange shift when they suddenly had all of this electoral momentum following the 2024 general election when the big push from Farage himself itself was about professionalizing the party, I. E. Making them a kind of credible electoral force and coming up with a policy platform that would align with that. And then when you saw Robert Jenrick join the party and there were a little few hints of things like Nigel Farage rode back on his position on the triple lock when he'd sort of flirted with the notion of getting rid of the triple lock which guarantees that pensions go up by a certain amount every year. Now he's decided that that's not the right thing to do. The same with the two child benefit cap. And there was this sort of sense of is that because they are trying to do a more kind of solid, you know, kind of credible policy pitch that maybe reform curious conservatives could get on board with if it's a deliberate shift in tactic now to something which is less that and which is more kind of of the traditional vibe of Nigel Farage, it will be interesting to see how that tallies with their argument that they're a government in waiting.
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A
Yeah. And it's, it's also interesting as well. It's reflected in their choice of candidate in, in Makerfield. Right. He is just, he's a Plumber, Right. He's the archetypal, he's the perfect outsider. Robert Kenyon, he is a, he's a working plumber. Yes. He's clearly a political enthusiast because he ran for reform in 2024 and has run for council for them for, for three times, has since been elected and is now running in this. But, you know, he is the archetypal outsider compared to, you know, running Sarah Pochin, right, a former Tory who won the runcorn by election for them. Matt Goodwin again, GB News host academic in Gorton and Denton. They're going back to, you know, man of the people, man of the street. And yeah, as you say, marrying that with a credible platform for government is the big challenge.
- [26:37]
C
And have you come up with like a settled view about what Manchesterism is? This idea that Andy Burnham has found some kind of secret sauce that makes Manchester the most successful place in Britain. And I'm now seeing a lot of skeptical newspaper pieces about whether a Manchesterism exists, be the extent to which Andy Burnham can own it.
- [26:55]
A
Well, look, Manchesterism started with the late Howard Bernstein and Richard Lees, the two guys who made Manchester what it is today. But you know, Andy Bernard, they were
- [27:05]
D
the council leader and the chief executive of Manchester Council for a long time
- [27:08]
A
created the sort of growth, growthy model all about property investments and all of that stuff, attracting investment services, economy, that sort of thing.
- [27:15]
C
And they're kind of like local government heroes for the ages, aren't they? And they'll write books about them in 100 years.
- [27:20]
A
Well, yeah, no, I.
- [27:21]
D
Now, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [27:23]
A
Well, I said, I said the other day, someone should write a sort of Robert Caro style book about. He wrote this famous book called the Power Broke about Robert Moses, the man who built New York. And I said something to do about Howard Burns.
- [27:32]
C
I've got it and I nearly finished it.
- [27:33]
A
Really? Is that very, very 2,000 pages long? Yeah, yeah. Well, someone is doing one on how Bernstein apparently.
- [27:39]
C
Oh, by the way, has anyone read the Power Broker by Robert Caro in
- [27:42]
A
the audience all the way through?
- [27:44]
C
No one? No, no. I mean if not even super narrative. Right. And also is LBJ what four books about LBJ?
- [27:52]
A
The fifth is, is he's written like 900 pages. The fifth?
- [27:55]
D
Yeah.
- [27:55]
C
I'm just trying to get the literary element in to justify us being here at Hayes. So we get to come again next year anyway. So, yeah, Manchesterism and how much Andy Burnham, because he's mentioned. You mentioned the two, the two guys who were there doing it for a year.
- [28:07]
A
Well, yeah, and look, what, what is Andy Burnham running on? He's running on public control. Not more public control, not ownership of the commanding heights of the economy, I.e. the utilities, etc. And transport. Talking a lot about buses, the B network in Manchester has been a great success. Franchised buses under public control. But look, I think Manchester, you know, Herbert Morrison, who was Clement Attlee's deputy and among other things, Peter Manelson's grandfather, used to say, you know, socialism is what a Labour government does. That is, you know, don't try and define it, don't be too doctrinal, don't be too dogmatic. If we're doing it, it's left wing, it's socialism. And you've got to wonder like Manchesterism is whatever Andy Burnham is saying, doing or wearing. Like it's not more complicated than that. It's like it is just a vibe. It is a politics that sort of looks and talks halfway normal, which is what the Labour Party seldom does. I appreciate, by the way, that is slightly frustrating for people who are looking at saying, okay, you're going to be Prime Minister in about five, what's your, what are you going to do? I think right now what's more significant is what's he said he's not going to do, right, he's not going to deviate from the manifesto on tax, he's not going to rewrite the fiscal rules, he's not going to introduce proportional representation. That referendum, those self denying ordinances at this point, a bit like Keir Starmer, are probably the most significant thing. Rather than trying to say what is the fully, what is our single transferable theory of Andy Burnham, it's more of a mood than a policy platform. And the guardrails he's operating within, and let's not forget either, right, that this is actually a Labour government that's doing sort of some quite conventionally left wing stuff. Like it's like a sort of basically a conventional European social democratic government that has failed to communicate, that has sort of tried to sound a bit more right wing on some stuff and has alienated everyone in the process. Maybe Annie Burnham just doing this government in a sort of more charismatic way will. Doesn't require a big policy shift, let's say.
- [29:59]
D
Well, that's part of the very active conversation that's kind of happening within the Labour Party at the moment. Because I think if you, and we've reported this widely, but you know, if you look at some of the stats that have come out over the course of the last couple of weeks. So you've had the UK growth forecasts revised up. I mean they're still pretty stagnant overall in terms this is quite low level growth, but they've been revised up and
- [30:18]
C
could become more stagnant as a result of the.
- [30:20]
D
And the same with inflation, which was lower than expected, but people are expecting over a period of time that that will go up again because of what we know is happening in the Middle East. But you've also had waiting list down, still high, coming down, and then the net immigration figures which the government wanted to bring down and then they came in substantially lower this year than previously and way, way below the peak. So, you know, the government under Keir Starmer would point to the things that it would see as progress that it has been making after this initial period of two years. The question for the Labour Party, where there is, there is, and I know that people get frustrated with journalists speculating, but the truth is there's a question within the Labour Party taking place pretty publicly at this point, is it do they want a shift in policy direction or. Or do they want somebody they think can be a better leader, a better kind of communicator, somebody to take the party along with them. And the challenge for Andy Burnham at the moment is he's trying to fight a by election in Makerfield where he's making a pitch to the constituents in that area and at the same time answer these kind of quite big policy and position based questions about what he may or may not do if he ends up in Westminster and then there does become a leadership challenge. And I think all of that is quite head spinning. But that's the kind of what Labour needs to decide where it's at with all of that.
- [31:27]
C
And on the whole Manchesterism thing, I mean, I love it when there's a place based ism in British politics because it's great to hear about how other parts of the country are doing things or maybe how things were done in other parts of the country in the past. But I'm always a bit skeptical about whether they actually then get imported into running the country in national government. Remember when Theresa May became Prime Minister and everyone said, look at Joseph Chamberlain, the Liberal mayor of Birmingham, in what, 1914, 14, 18 something. And actually it turned out to not be a very good guy, Theresa May's time at all.
- [31:58]
A
He was divisive and unpopular outside of Birmingham. Joe Chamberlain sort of broke not one but two political parties and it turned out he wasn't a great example for Theresa May. The Corbynites are very excited about Preston, the Preston model, insourcing, the Cabinet, the council doing stuff locally again that didn't seem to ever happen outside of Preston. Although Preston, you know, very successful council. But yeah, it didn't seem to work outside of Preston. You know, Workington man, Stevenage woman. You know we always look to these places and turns out they don't hold the answer.
- [32:27]
C
And also because quite often when you're Prime Minister you're dealing with somebody, something that has flown in from Iran or Brussels or the White House. And so a place based ism in the UK only gets you so far when you're dealing with a crisis. Right, I'm going to read out the list of candidates so far in the Makerfield by election, which is the thing you will find on the BBC news website. As Alex very professionally said. So for the Lib Downs we've got Jake Austin, Andy Burnham standing for the Labour Party, Alan Howlin Lord Hope for the Monster raving Loony Party, Robert Kenyon for Reform uk, Rebecca shepherd for Restore Britain, Peter Ward for Rejoin eu, Michael Winn Stanley for the Conservatives. And I should say there are two other by elections happening on the same day. They're in Scotland and we will talk about some of the stories that are emerging from them and some of the themes on a future episode of By Election Cast. So this impromptu one has been a catch up about Makerfield but I promise we will look at the Scottish byelections as well. Patrick, thank you very much for being here.
- [33:23]
A
Thanks for having me.
- [33:30]
C
Alex, thanks for keeping me company the last couple of days. And Alex and I had a fantastic pint in a beautiful field with a babbling brook yesterday. That was so good.
- [33:38]
D
Yeah, it's just a beautiful setting. It's been a joy. Been a real pleasure.
- [33:42]
C
Thank you to the newscast crew and the wider BBC crew and the wider hey crew who have allowed us to be in this amazing tent. Thank you to you for listening and thanks to the newscasters who came to see us here at. Hey, see you again soon. Bye bye.
- [34:03]
D
Newscast, newscast from the BBC, from one
- [34:06]
E
newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know and don't forget, you can email us anytime@newscastbc.co.uk or if you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on 331 239480. Be assured I promise. We listen to everyone.
- [34:51]
B
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