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Luke Trill
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- [02:49]
Alex Forsyth
Newscast from the BBC.
- [02:50]
Adam Fleming
Fat boy slipping me in the classroom doing our violin lessons. I was the tattletale in the classroom. Can I have an apology, please? I trust almost nobody that daddy has
- [02:58]
Luke Trill
to sometimes do strong language.
- [03:00]
Alex Forsyth
Next time in Moscow I feel delulu with no salulu.
- [03:04]
Luke Trill
Take me down to Downing Street.
- [03:05]
Joe Pike
Let's go have a tour.
- [03:07]
Alex Forsyth
Blimey.
- [03:09]
Adam Fleming
Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio.
- [03:11]
Alex Forsyth
And it's Alex in the studio.
- [03:13]
Joe Pike
It's Joe pike, also in the studio.
- [03:14]
Adam Fleming
And welcome back. Luke Trill, the executive director of More In Common.
- [03:17]
Luke Trill
Hello, Luke.
- [03:18]
Adam Fleming
Hi.
- [03:18]
Luke Trill
It's great to be here.
- [03:19]
Adam Fleming
What sort of research have you been doing into people's opinions this week? Because that's what More In Common does.
- [03:24]
Luke Trill
I've been up in Scotland speaking to people on the west coast and in Glasgow about what they think of the upcoming. Upcoming Holyrood elections.
- [03:33]
Adam Fleming
Okay. And have you done anything a bit more left field? Because I know you sometimes test people's opinions on unexpected things.
- [03:39]
Luke Trill
Yeah. Well, obviously, most important event of the week is Pancake day, and we looked at the growing age divide when it comes to pancake toppings. So amongst older generations, lemon and sugar remains the firm favorite. But amongst Gen Z, who, and I think I'm allowed to say it about this sort of polling, are often wrong on these issues. I'll question my impartiality for a little bit. They prefer Nutella as they're spread. So we are becoming a nation of Nutella pancakes rather than lemon and sugar.
- [04:10]
Alex Forsyth
Well, that puts me firmly in the old age.
- [04:13]
Adam Fleming
Yes. Okay. Also, another date of note. This week it was Andrew Mountbatten Windsor's 66th birthday on Thursday. But the morning started for him with him being arrested by Thames Valley police who are investigating these claims of misconduct in public office.
- [04:29]
Luke Trill
It's.
- [04:30]
Adam Fleming
It's a kind of a police story now. But is it still a bit of a politics story as well?
- [04:34]
Alex Forsyth
A bit.
- [04:34]
Joe Pike
I think it's clearly a breathtaking moment. I think those in Parliament who'd been putting pressure on the government and maybe the monarchy to take more action, some talk that Andrew could be removed from the line of succession. I think all those people are now stepping back. Everyone in Parliament realises that if there is a legal process underway, an investigation underway, they want to step back. And if there were next Steps. What seems odd is that they all sort of linked to the King. Right. I mean, if there was to be some evidence that the police wants to put forward, the Crown Prosecution would deal with it. If there was to be a court case, it would be Rex versus potentially Andrew Bambatten Windsor. And then if there was to be a prison spell, he would serve at His Majesty's pleasure. I mean, that is just such a. It's such an sort of odd juxtaposition, isn't it, really?
- [05:27]
Adam Fleming
And, Alex, me and Laura recorded an episode of Newscast earlier in the day, which you can listen to if you scan the QR Code now. And we got some analysis from Dominic Casciani, our home and legal affairs expert, on what misconduct in public office is in the law. But what I was struck by when we were doing that episode was reading the statement from the King. And it was the sort of statement we're used to hearing from politicians when something controversial or important happens. Not the sort of statement you're used to reading from. From the monarch. We were reading it and reading between the lines and like it was a political story.
- [05:56]
Alex Forsyth
Yeah. And I think that's because obviously the role of the Royal family and the King in the way that they've responded and handled all of this. Because you've got to remember, the arrest of Andrew Mountbatten Windsor was clearly an extraordinary moment, even though the police process will carry on in the very ordinary way from this point on. Andrew, as we know, has said that he hasn't done anything wrong. Everything will unfold through the judicial process now. But this has been going on for so much longer than that. And, you know, there have have been these recent interventions from the King, which has taken a bit of a different tone. So the first significant one was when he stripped his brother of his titles, of course. And then there was the moving him out of Royal Lodge. And then we had a recognition last week while Prince William was on a trip in Saudi Arabia. You had that statement from the palace which was talking about the victims and all of that. And now today, you've had almost another kind of response from the King where he named Andrew his brother. And it was very directly about the situation that was unfolding. And you have to think that it's all almost an acknowledgment that they have to respond in a way that you don't and haven't had from the Royal family for many, many years. You know, that old adage of the Queen, which was, you know, never complain, never explain, doesn't wash anymore. Given the magnitude of the moment and the fact it is so directly linked to the King, this is his brother. It's a, you know, a key member of the Royal family who's been arrested now. And I think it just. When you read the tone and content, it was very careful, but it was very much acknowledging that this is something that they can't ignore at this point.
- [07:28]
Adam Fleming
And Jo, we learned today during the course of Thursday that the Home Office were told in advance by Thames Valley Police that this is what they were going to do. But Buckingham palace wasn't.
- [07:36]
Joe Pike
Yeah. And sources were in the Home Office telling me that this is normal, that Shabana Mahmood was, was tipped off shortly before that arrest. Number 10, we've asked the same question. Did they have advance notice? They haven't responded and say they would never normally comment on this sort of issue. I think there is a sort of attention, an unease always within number 10 about dealing with the Royal family that has slightly shifted in recent weeks because of the drip, drip allegations, because the fact of the Lord Mandelston appointment means that Keir Starmer can't be detached, but also because he has faced claims of a boys club and his own team of misogyny and therefore the Prime Minister certainly wants to be looking to not be standing in the way of any action. And on the topic of the line of succession, as I say, some talk that Andrew could be removed from that. It can happen via legislation, quite simply. The only rub is every single Commonwealth Realm needs to be consulted. That could be a long process and also pretty embarrassing, maybe prompt some of those realms to think, if we're proving this actually why are we part of this institution at all?
- [08:50]
Adam Fleming
Andrew has always denied the claims that were put to him related to Jeffrey Epstein, but it seems that what the Thames Valley Police are investigating this time because of the name of the allegation that they've given it, misconduct in public office. It appears this is related to a kind of much earlier time than people have been talking about up till now, which is when he was the so called trade envoy for the UK government, which is 2001-11.
- [09:12]
Alex Forsyth
Yeah, I was going to say it was quite a long time ago, but it was for quite a long period as well and obviously went over successive governments, two different governments of two different parties, if you like. And that role is a role, I think I'm right in saying he was officially appointed to it by the then Queen, even though it was a sort of role where he was out there doing work for the government, where he was championing the UK on the world stage and sort of banging the drum for UK trade and all the rest of it. And obviously we knew that Thames Valley Police was considering some information about whether or not there had been a breach or misconduct in public office relating to his time in that role. And then the arrest is on, like, because it is directly in relation to that. And then we'll see how that, how that unfolds. But I think, you know, it's. I listened to the episode that you recorded earlier of Newcastle newscast, and Dom Casciani talks a lot there about the complexities, you know, of that specific allegation, lots of tests, how you prove it and don't prove it and all of the complications around it. But I think it's. It's also this sort of question about how there's always attempted to be this sort of separation between the parliamentary and the Parliament and the government. And the government is trying to acts very sensitively in relation to the royal family. And lots of parliamentarians and mps have tiptoed so cautiously around what they say about the royals. And there are even conventions and kind of rules in the House of Commons about what you can and can't say regarding the royals. And at the same time, you have Prince Andrew doing this public role, you know, which is. It sort of crosses over a little bit. And I just wonder, of course, the official legal process goes on, but the questions around all of that, I wonder if at some point they will surface too. You know, where's the scrutiny, the accountability, the transparency? Did it apply to Prince Andrew in that role in the same way it would to somebody who'd been directly appointed by the government as a minister? Because in that situation, hasn't it. It's taken so long to get to this point. And, you know, there are some people that might say hindsight is a wonderful thing and you can always look back over what could or should or shouldn't have been done after new information emerges. But I do think that given, as I said, the magnitude of what has happened now, there will almost be inevitably questions about the role of people and the institutions of country and how things reached this point.
- [11:19]
Adam Fleming
And look, the police have warned people, because there's an active investigation, to not just go onto social media and mouth off with their opinions about what they think about has might or might not have gone on. But what's a way of looking at how the public feel about the royal family in the light of all the claims and revelations there have been?
- [11:35]
Luke Trill
This is a really sort of perilous time for the Royal family in public opinion terms. So we know, you know, we remain a nation of monarchists, you know, by about 2 to 1 people support having a monarchy over a republic or the support is lower amongst younger generations. But even amongst those who back the Royal family when we asked at the end of last year, they think the King was too slow when it came to dealing with Andrew and in particular removing his titles. I think the Royal Family took too long to get round to dealing with him. But I also think there's speaking to people in focus groups over the past nearly three weeks now about the Epstein and the Mandelson and Andrew Mountbatten Windsor revelations. I think we're another one of those kind of epoch defining moments like the expenses scandal, because when you speak to people it has reinforced, really reinforced and crystallized in their view this sense of a rigged system, that there's one rule for elites, that elites all look after one another.
- [12:46]
Adam Fleming
Oh, and that's why you say epoch defying, because it's defining for the Royal family or defining for the government or for Keir Starmer. You say, is everybody involved in national life?
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Luke Trill
Exactly. And you know, even with the Mandelson piece. Yes. I mean I've had lots of people saying how angry they are at the Prime Minister forever appointing him. But they all say it goes beyond that. It's about politics and institutions. And of course we're at a time where leave aside all the scandal just on the basics of government to deliver, whether it's on cost of living, public services. People are frustrated and things think things aren't working and that's driving them away from the traditional mainstream. I think this could be something that turbo chargers that you know, that pull away from mainstream benefiting non mainstream or new emergent political parties. But I think Alex is absolutely right. You know, the public aren't going to wash with business as usual. They're going to want to see something different, something change as a result of this like they did after expenses.
- [13:42]
Alex Forsyth
And what's also just on that point, what's so interesting is that you're already getting this sort of narrative come from the US in light of the arrest of Andrew, it has been sort of accelerated that although while in the UK people might being frustrated at the pace it's taken, the time it's taken to get to the point that he was stripped of his titles or whatever else in the US where Epstein of course was based and a lot of his networks were based, there hasn't apart from Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell been anybody else who has been, you know, gone through any kind of judicial process there. So there is also. So that kind of contrast between what's happened in the UK and the us which probably feeds.
- [14:18]
Adam Fleming
Although the Clintons are going to be giving testimony to Congress fairly soon. Although at the moment that's going to be behind closed doors. So it will feel like a big accountability moment.
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Joe Pike
That will be a big moment. I agree. Two dates. 1999, when we think Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, as he now is, met Jeffrey Epstein. 2010 was the photo of the then Prince and Jeffrey Epstein in Central park when their relationship supposedly ended. So the relationship supposedly ended up 16 years ago and started what, 27 years ago. It just the, the, the stretches of time.
- [14:48]
Alex Forsyth
Yeah. And the other thing to add into that is 2019 was of course, the form of then Prince Andrew's interview with Emily Maitlis. And you think at that point Emily Maitlis was asking pertinent questions about the things that are only now sort of very widely being responded to by some of the institutions. And that's quite a time lag too.
- [15:09]
Adam Fleming
And we're recording this episode of Newscast on Thursday evening. So this is the situation as we understand it, as we're talking about it now. Joe, you were breaking a little story earlier on that's related to this. I don't mean little as in not interesting, but just quite a bit. Not quite on the same scale as will the Royal Family survive?
- [15:25]
Joe Pike
That's true.
- [15:25]
Adam Fleming
It's about Lord Mandelson, Peter Mandelson's company that he founded when he left politics.
- [15:31]
Joe Pike
Absolutely. The company is and maybe was soon called Global Council. It's a sort of PR and lobbying firm and they're about to go into administration. They argue they're actually doing very well. They were. They were growing. They had very good projections for the next year. They had a huge number of staff. But their association with Lord Mandelson, who founded the organization, even though he's not been involved in it for a few months and his currently has no connection to it, they argue it has led to them being a position where it's just not sustainable to carry on. They've obviously had clients dumping them. And I suppose ultimately, if you're. If your job is to be a sort of advisor on reputation management, if your reputation is going down the Suwannee because of your association with somebody as damaged as Lord Anderson, maybe it is over. It's possible that, I suppose, people involved could start up a new company and something that doesn't have the sort of fingerprints of Lord Mandelson.
- [16:33]
Adam Fleming
And the BBC's contacted Lord Mandelson several times to hear what he has to say about all of this. He's not got back to us, but our understanding is he says there was nothing in his actions that was criminal or to do with monetary gain. And I've just heard that Andrew Mountbatten Windsor has left the police station where he was being questioned. So we'll see what the fallout from that is. Let's talk about somebody who entered a building today rather than leaving it. Who is Antonia Romeo and what's she gonna be doing?
- [16:58]
Alex Forsyth
I always get a bit nervous when you're asking me a question like that. Cause I think what's the name you're gonna.
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Adam Fleming
Budget Edition.
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Alex Forsyth
So Antonia Romeo is now the new Cabinet Secretary. The Cabinet Secretary is effectively the most senior civil servant and they sit alongside the Prime Minister and they try meant to effectively implement the government's policy agenda, get all the cogs working and get things happening. She is a woman, the first woman, it's worth noting to hold that post in 110 years or something ever. 110 years. I knew Joe would know the detail.
- [17:29]
Adam Fleming
And WINNER of Celebrity Mastermind.
- [17:31]
Alex Forsyth
And what is interesting about this? Well, there are two things. The first thing is obviously the fact that Keir Starmer has had to find and appoint a new Cabinet secretary at this point is because he got rid of his last cabinet secretary who he'd not so long before that appointed. And which is a sign of the fact that he is almost acknowledging that his government is needing a reshuffle or reset. Call it what you will to try and get things back on track. The other interesting thing about this appointment is that Antonia Romeo, Romeo.
- [17:57]
Adam Fleming
Romeo as in. And Juliet as.
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Alex Forsyth
As an. And Juliet. She has been a senior figure in the Civil service for some time since her name became put in the public frame as the front runner for this big important job in government. There has been an enormous kind of briefing and counter briefing campaign playing out very publicly about her past record in senior roles with lots of people disagreeing with about whether or not she would be suitable for this appointment. And it's really quite extraordinary the kind of extent that it's got to.
- [18:28]
Adam Fleming
It's based because we don't normally get this about behind the scenes this person.
- [18:31]
Alex Forsyth
You just don't normally get this. And some people have asked why there is such scrutiny on this. I mean, is it because there is a lot of scrutiny at the moment on the appointments that Zakir Starmer is making because of course, you know, we know that other appointments, like the role of Peter Manderson to U.S. ambassador, have been widely questioned and questioned his judgment. Or is it because it's her specifically that's going to get this job? And really, really broadly, so people don't know. Basically, there are some people that say, look, she's a go getter that gets things done, that she shakes things up, that she's, you know, implements stuff that she's a great leader in the civil service. There are other people that point to, particularly a time when she was working in New York as the UK's consul general, when there were allegations made from several people about her conduct in that role, allegations around bullying. They were looked at ultimately by the Cabinet Office and they said there was no case to answer, but they have resurfaced.
- [19:16]
Adam Fleming
And that's several allegations that became one complaint. One complaint which was kind of knocked down by the officials who looked into it.
- [19:23]
Alex Forsyth
Exactly.
- [19:24]
Adam Fleming
Luke, you. In a previous life, you were a special advisor to a Conservative Cabinet minister and Antonio Romeo was in Whitehall at that point. Any memories you can bring to the table tonight?
- [19:35]
Luke Trill
I mean, look, I didn't. No, I mean, at the time she was in, I think, what is known as the Economic and Domestic Affairs Secretariat, which sounds like a very wonky title, but is actually a really important role. So she was leading that because that's the role that is responsible for sort of coordinating the Prime Minister's policy agenda. It's within the Cabinet Office. You negotiate between departments, things like, right. Rounds where you're trying to get permission from other departments to do things, go through them. So it's quite a powerful role. And it's a role where essentially a lot of your job is about on gumming the government machine. And she didn't really.
- [20:16]
Adam Fleming
Which is what the Cabinet Secretary is meant to do as well.
- [20:18]
Luke Trill
Exactly. So she's clearly got experience of that. As I say, I think I can only remember one meeting that I was in with her. I thought she was very impressive, but I think it is fair to say. I wonder how much of the resistance that is coming to her is, because, you know, she isn't in the sort of mold of an old school civil servant, as, like I said, you know, people that I've worked with do say, you know, she is dynamic. She is, you know, at the forefront of things. She's also. One of the things you notice about her is she has more of a public profile than lots of other civil servants, you know, has done more interviews, is known for that. And I I just wonder Van Vogue in vogue. And I just wonder whether that sort of thing might have just put some of the more old school mandarins, you might call them, their noses out of joint slightly.
- [21:06]
Adam Fleming
Well, it's interesting you say that, because the big drama in this story was last week when Sir Simon Macdonald, who used to be the Chief Foreign Secretary, the Chief Civil Service at the Foreign Office, did an interview on Channel 4 news, really sticking the boot into her and the investigation that had been done into her background and almost putting the boot into the Prime Minister as well for considering her. To me it seems like, oh, this is maybe the door closing on that sort of person's era now, perhaps, I
- [21:35]
Joe Pike
think, certainly, though it is definitely a risk to have appointed her just because there are these allegations swirling around and there possibly could be more. But Keir Starmer is clearly wanting to spin the wheel again, is looking at the candidates and saying, I need somebody seemingly who is radical, who's going to shake things up and I'm not going to listen to maybe these grumpy former colleagues. I think it's also worth pointing out that she's been appointed because he has changed his mind on the previous Cabinet Secretary. He's changed his mind a lot. Sue Gray, he changed his mind after three months as chief of staff. Morgan McSweeney, what was it, 16 months? Chris Wormwood, the cabinet secretary, was 14 months. So he does change his mind. Finally. I think it's worth pointing out too, Adam, that this is another example of the boys club in number 10 being disbanded. The first female Cabinet Secretary. We now have two acting female chiefs of staff and we also have who replaced a man as well, and a new acting Director of Communications, a woman who's replaced a man. So four women in sort of the top three roles, really, which were three men a week and a half ago.
- [22:48]
Adam Fleming
And let's be honest, no one is tuning into who's going to be the Cabinet Secretary. Like they're tuning in to see who's going to win strictly or win in the traitors. But it is an incredibly important job for, for the country. And what happens.
- [23:00]
Alex Forsyth
It's an incredibly important job for the country because, as we mentioned, it's sort of the role that's meant to get stuff done. And we know that Keir Starmer has publicly expressed his frustration at what he's described as pulling on a lever and then effectively not doing anything. Now, some people might say, well, it's your fault, you're the Prime Minister, it's your kind of job to make that happen. But then there is a question about the machinery of government and how you make that work effectively. And this job is meant to really do that. And if you ask the government what it thinks its answer to some of the problems, well documented problems that it's facing is they will say, delivery, we have to deliver for people on what we said we would. And then we think that, you know, people might start responding to us in a different way. And if you want to deliver things, you need to get the Civil Service and the Whitehall machine working. And this is effectively the role that's meant to do a bit of that.
- [23:51]
Luke Trill
Exactly. And although, again, I doubt many people are following the intricacies of this appointment, I've never had a Cabinet secretary, I think, brought up in a focus group.
- [23:59]
Adam Fleming
It is exactly what happens this weekend,
- [24:03]
Luke Trill
but it is, it goes to the central problem of this government. So when, you know, I ask people what you think about this government, they will often say, I just don't think they've done anything. They haven't brought about that change that was promised. And when you've got, again, people, whether it's Zach Polanski, Nigel Farrar increasingly came in Badenoch saying, we will do this. You know, there seems to be much more politics of can outside of government than within it. And I see this appointment as trying to address that challenge from the public, which is we are going to deliver at all costs. And she might be a risk, but she's the person to do it.
- [24:36]
Alex Forsyth
But it is just also, ever so briefly to just really hammer the point that Joe made. This isn't his first attempt at reshaping the team to try and get it working. You know, there have been several iterations of the, of all of these top people in government and, and so far, none of that's really, really worked for him. And by his own acknowledgement, because he's
- [24:54]
Adam Fleming
having to do it again just to go back to Andrew Mountbatten Windsor leaving the police station. As we were having that conversation about half past seven, the BBC's got a picture of him in the back of a car leaving the police station. You guys can't see it because we're such a low budget, low tech studio, but I've got it on my laptop because someone's just sent it to me. And bear in mind, our job is interpreting images. A lot of the time that. That is the image. Yes, that's going to be just him
- [25:19]
Joe Pike
lying back in the back seats, maybe
- [25:22]
Adam Fleming
trying to avoid the cameras, looking pretty, kind of horrified. Yeah, not a great look. For anyone to be in that position, and that obviously will be on the front pages of all the newspapers tomorrow and be quite a defining image, whatever happens next in this police investigation. Right. Another story that I was working on this week. I mean, it wasn't really a story, it was just me having a chat with Robert Jenrick. But it was an interesting conversation because the day before, he'd been appointed to what Reform UK called their Shadow Cabinet. And us pedants say to them every time, you're not really the Shadow Cabinet, because only His Majesty's Opposition get to call themselves the Shadow Cabinet. And then it's interesting because Reform then pushed back on that, saying, yeah, well, we're leading the polls, we're the ones calling the tune. So actually, maybe you pedants need to start calling us the Shadow Cabinet.
- [26:10]
Alex Forsyth
Well, it's part of their very deliberate strategy to try and portray themselves as a government in waiting. But you're right, the Conservatives are the official opposition.
- [26:16]
Adam Fleming
Yes. So the Reform UK treasury spokesperson, as we will call him, Robert Jerry, was sat in this very studio on Wednesday. We had quite a long chat and here is a little bit of it and I wanted to play you the bit where the penny dropped for me, and then I'll tell you where the penny dropped and why.
- [26:30]
Luke Trill
Who suffers when there's a loss of credibility in the government and the country when there's instability? Yeah, it's rich people, people in the City to some extent.
- [26:43]
Adam Fleming
But the people who suffer the most
- [26:44]
Luke Trill
are working people, pensioners, people on lower incomes.
- [26:47]
Adam Fleming
And so if Reform aspires to be the voice for those people, it's got to provide stability.
- [26:53]
Luke Trill
People have got to know that Reform will be careful with their money, that you can trust us with your pensions,
- [27:00]
Adam Fleming
your savings, your mortgage, your small business. And that was the message that I
- [27:05]
Luke Trill
was trying to deliver today.
- [27:07]
Adam Fleming
And then the penny that dropped was, I think Rachel Reeves, when she was Shadow Chancellor, was sat in this studio and said, almost word for word, exactly the same message about fiscal responsibility and why you had to manage the government's budget and public spending and borrowing and taxation, because if you got it wrong, you harmed working people. It sounded, like, strangely familiar.
- [27:29]
Joe Pike
That is the strategy, economic competence. They're trying to. To show they have more than just immigration policy in particular. And he's trying to be seen. Boring. Talking about the obr, talking about the bank of England from people I spoke to in his team and the wider reform team earlier in the week. They are very clearly trying to talk to the city voters, of course, but the City too. And I suppose putting together the shadow cabinet is, as Farage admitted himself, about trying to get away from that. That perception which he knows is amusing but also damaging, that his party's a one man band.
- [28:03]
Adam Fleming
But that's a very different look for reform from say when you were chasing them around the country as Ukip or the Brexit party, isn't it?
- [28:10]
Alex Forsyth
Chasing in the most elegant fashion, 2015, journalistically chasing. Yeah, yeah. Look, I think this is, I think this is so interesting and what happened this week with, with reform. So clearly Nigel Farager said they've been on this sort of pathway towards professionalization and needing more experience and all the rest of it. And then this week you had these two announcements. The Robert Generic was particularly interesting because I think it is a sort of an acknowledgment that the. One of the risks for reform is that people thought they would have played fast and loose with public money or they weren't economically credible or they didn't have a proper plan for the public finances. And that's absolutely been the attack line from their political opponents and put them in front of a journalist and they'll quite often get asked the perfectly valid question, how are you going to pay for that? You know, they had to row back on some of their promised tax cuts that they'd initially said, you know, so they are now striking a very different tone under Robert Generic, very deliberately trying to say things like, you can trust us with your money, everything's going to be costed, you know, we are not going to be a risk and not just to the markets, but I think to voters too. The risk though for reform in this strategy is twofold. The first one is that they are saying they're going to be a party of radical change, while now saying actually we're going to be very safe and secure and echoing similar lines to predecessor parties to the point that you made Adam. And the other slight risk for reform, I think here is that there are now points of difference quite obviously between Nigel Farage and Robert Jemreck.
- [29:35]
Adam Fleming
So for example, the two child benefits, child benefit cap.
- [29:37]
Alex Forsyth
So Nigel Farage not so long ago announced that they'd keep. They'd hold on. I always get this the wrong way.
- [29:42]
Adam Fleming
I know.
- [29:42]
Joe Pike
Kern.
- [29:43]
Adam Fleming
Yeah, exactly. He says he would retain it being abolished
- [29:49]
Alex Forsyth
for some families for what he calls British working families.
- [29:52]
Adam Fleming
And Robert Jenrick says that now reform would reintroduce, reduce the two child because
- [29:56]
Alex Forsyth
he wants to be seen as responsible public money and we can't afford it. And the other one's the Office of Budget Responsibility where just a couple of weeks ago, I think it was around Christmas time, Nigel Farage was sort of openly flirting with the notion of getting rid of the officer's budget responsibility. Now Robert Genericart's come in and said we're absolutely going to keep it. So there's sort of policy differences now happening at the top there, but also I think in the messaging from this party, if people are wanting a radical shakeup and then you've got now the message that we are, we're keeping these institutions and we're going to be quite solid. I just wonder how that kind of pitch sits.
- [30:28]
Adam Fleming
And Luke, what do reform voters or reform curious voters want?
- [30:32]
Luke Trill
It's a bit of a mix to be honest, but if you assume the sort of 15% who voted for reform at the last election are basically the die hards, they're all in, unless something significant changes, they're going to back the party again. Reform's second 15 to 20% that they really need. You know, what's put them in the lead in the polls gets them into government. I often describe them or visualize them on a seesaw. So bear with me, it works. On one end of the seesaw you've got things are so bad, things feel so terrible that we need something new. We need something very radically new. And people will say in focus groups who even say, look, I don't even like Nigel Farage that much, but I'm willing to roll the dice on something new because things are that bad. We just need to be. We can't go on like this. I hear so often. So that you know, that side of the seesaw, when that side is weighed down, it benefits reform. On the other side of the seesaw, you've got what I call the risk of reform. And look, fundamentally, if there's one thing you learn about British public opinion, we're quite risk averse people as a whole. You know, we don't go in for, you know, what they're going for on the continent or over in the U.S. you know, we often play it so and every time reform does something like, you know, they're seen to back Donald Trump on paracetamol or be too close to him in general or their candidates say something wacky or worse, outright offensive, it weighs down that other side. And one of the biggest weights on that other side of the seesaw for those swing, those reform curious reform leaning voters has been the economy. Because in focus groups will say, yeah, I'm voting for them because of immigration that's why I'm backing it. In fact, seven in 10 people who support reform reform say they're doing it because of immigration. But I do worry about question two, question three, question four, which is the economy, public services and anything else. And it would not have been credible with the public to get closer to the next election and not have an offer there. That was very clear on the economy. Because the other thing that has happened linked to that is that a lot of people asking, why do reform seem to have plateaued in the polls or even dipped? There were lots of different theories. Was it the Dulwich College allegations? Was it they've taken in too many formatorial, we fund neither of those particularly wash. What does seem to have damaged them is the fact that since the budget, both the traditional main parties have got aligned on the economy and they've almost squeezed reform out of the conversation there. And I think reform has recognised we need to get in there. But in doing so, they've made a choice and they've made a really choice. So one choice is radicalism or stability. The other is we know where they are. On social issues like immigration, they lean right, but on the economy they've always lent a bit left and a bit right. So, you know, lower tax, but also nationalization, things like the two child cap. And lots of the voters they've won over from labor lean left on the economy. And so I actually think there might now be an opportunity for labor to scoop up some of those voters, particularly if the economy is more salient. I actually think it makes it a little bit harder for the Tories who are trying to carve out this path of we're the fiscally conservative responsible group, because now reform have planted themselves directly there.
- [33:44]
Alex Forsyth
And it's worth saying, of course, when you talk about those two big things that Robert Generic talked about this week, which is the fiscal responsibility and welfare, they are very much aligned with the conservative position. There's not much between them. Of course, Nigel Farage has always said that because he believes that he's on the path to government, that he does need to build a team around him with experience of government, which is why he's bought in people like Robert Ginrick and effectively Robert Jenrick is doing, I guess what he was bought into the party or went to the party to do. He would argue.
- [34:13]
Adam Fleming
And now, before we go, I'm gonna introduce a new newscast gimmick. It's called Shout Out To My Brex. Any little mix fans in the room tonight?
- [34:21]
Alex Forsyth
No, I know the song.
- [34:22]
Adam Fleming
Yeah. Obviously, it's called Shout Out To My Ex. But the reason we're doing it is because we thought we could relive in real time what was happening 10 years ago, which was the start of the Brexit referendum. Although the word Brexit wasn't even really used then, was it?
- [34:35]
Alex Forsyth
No, well, no, I think it was
- [34:38]
Adam Fleming
maybe in niche circles, but it hadn't escaped. Yeah, exactly. So we're recording this bit of newscast on Thursday the 19th of February. And so, Alex, 10 years ago on Thursday the 19th of February. Well, it wasn't Thursday, was it? It was 19th of February. It was Friday, actually, I think, wasn't it?
- [34:54]
Alex Forsyth
Yeah.
- [34:54]
Adam Fleming
26. Anyway, let's not go that granular. It was the 19th of February, going into the 20th of February 2016. David Cameron had been in Brussels. He was Prime Minister then, of course, renegotiating the UK's membership of the EU with people like Angela Merkel.
- [35:12]
Luke Trill
And you.
- [35:12]
Adam Fleming
And you were there.
- [35:13]
Alex Forsyth
Yeah. And, you know, you've just sprung this on me that we were going to talk about this. And the reason that I know that you are bang on the money inaccurate is because this morning on one of my social medias, one of the memories came up, and it came up with 10 years ago today and a picture of me at the council of in the European Union at 3:00am in the morning after the negotiations had just concluded,
- [35:32]
Adam Fleming
because they went on and on and
- [35:34]
Alex Forsyth
on and on and on. And you'd be sat in this massive kind of room with all the journalists from all of the different countries of the European Union huddled around their laptops, and then you'd get the odd world like leader come out and then everyone would rush over to them or their spokesman and try and get a sense of what would be going on and what had been agreed and what hadn't. And then you'd get press conferences at like 2 or 3 in the morning. And that was the meeting where the final shape of the renegotiated deal was agreed. And then David Cameron was going to come back and kind of effectively try and sell it to the country.
- [36:02]
Adam Fleming
Yeah. And then I was in Downing street the following morning, which I think was a Saturday, and Cameron came out and lectern moment, and his big pitch to the country about the renegotiated membership was twofold. The UK is going to have this emergency break, which meant there would be restrictions on the freedom of movement of people in certain circumstances. And also the bit in the EU treaty that says ever closer union for the countries that are members of the EU was not going to apply to the uk and everyone felt, okay, he's worked very hard to get this. But is it quite lived up to what he.
- [36:34]
Alex Forsyth
Is it going to be the game changer? Because I also remember having gone round with David Cameron when David Cameron was renegotiating the terms.
- [36:42]
Joe Pike
Oh, yeah, you.
- [36:42]
Adam Fleming
You basically visited every EU member country, didn't you?
- [36:45]
Alex Forsyth
Yeah, because he was.
- [36:46]
Adam Fleming
Did you go in a helicopter in. In Hungary?
- [36:48]
Alex Forsyth
Yeah, I did. How do you remember?
- [36:49]
Adam Fleming
Because I was really jealous.
- [36:52]
Alex Forsyth
And we also ended up on. In Prague at some point and I was voxing people on the streets asking them about Britain's renegotiation of the terms of the European Union in their second language. Because I was speaking English and they were just so eloquent on it. I remember being utterly blown away, like, wow, this is having resonance somewhere.
- [37:10]
Adam Fleming
Thank you, Czechia. Luke, you were sort of grimacing a little bit when I talked about what the outcome of the summit was. Why was that?
- [37:17]
Luke Trill
Well, I was a special advisor at the time working for Nikki Morgan, who was. She was a Remainer and campaigned again.
- [37:27]
Adam Fleming
But I just. Big time Remain.
- [37:29]
Luke Trill
She's at the top table very much. And I remember. And of course she came. She was in a constituency and came back for that Cabinet meeting. And I just remember sort of thinking, this is. This is pretty thin gruel for the public. Is it really enough to go on? Yeah. And I can remember, I think we were watching it from the office we were in and we're just like, oh, is this really, you know, gonna be enough to put of the line? Obviously it wasn't. It's obviously a slightly painful memory for me. Cause the outcome as well as us leaving the European Union was that I then lost my job when Theresa May sacked Nicky Morgan in the reshuffle after she came in.
- [38:08]
Adam Fleming
That's a future episode of Shout Out Time. We've got many. Any instalments to go before we get. Don't spoil the ending. Don't spoil the ending.
- [38:16]
Alex Forsyth
Giveaway.
- [38:16]
Adam Fleming
Joe, any memories? You were in Scotland at that point.
- [38:19]
Joe Pike
I was actually, to be fair, in Scotland. This whole issue wasn't. I mean, it wasn't as dominant because you had the referendum. Independence referendum 14, Westminster elections. Labour destroyed S&P big in 15, and then 16, the Scottish elections. I've been looking through the top 10. A secret love Song came out at the sort of same time. Do you know. Do you know that song? No, that's a little. That's a little mixed.
- [38:43]
Adam Fleming
I'll met Alex and see if she recognized.
- [38:44]
Joe Pike
I Don't know it. The number one, though was seven years by Lucas Graham and he was number one for five years, for five weeks.
- [38:52]
Luke Trill
That's a long time.
- [38:53]
Adam Fleming
Wow.
- [38:53]
Alex Forsyth
We really are.
- [38:55]
Adam Fleming
Five weeks.
- [38:55]
Luke Trill
That's. I remember that. Yeah.
- [38:57]
Adam Fleming
My then other memory of that was then going to the Vote leave headquarters that they'd set up in an office building opposite the Houses of Parliament on the other side of the River Thames. And they, because David Cameron had allowed members of the Cabinet to go and fight on the other side. And I remember filming Chris Grayling, Teresa Villiers and Ian Duncan Smith hitting the phones. And I remember just in the back of my mind going, if their big hitters are Theresa Villiers, Chris Grayling and Ian Duncan Smith, are these guys really going to turn around public opinion? Because at that point people were in favor of staying. But of course, it wasn't until a few days later that that Boris Johnson was unveiled on his own doorstep.
- [39:38]
Alex Forsyth
The famous two columns it had written one way or another.
- [39:42]
Adam Fleming
My big takeaway from that period is, is even though we gave a lot of scrutiny to what was being renegotiated, we didn't talk about things like what's the Customs Union? It was all about how can there be curbs on immigration, how can there be curbs on freedom? How do you restrict freedom of movement? We weren't really getting into the things that would become very, very important.
- [40:00]
Luke Trill
Northern Ireland, I can't remember Northern Ireland being talked about about at all, really.
- [40:04]
Alex Forsyth
Yeah. And it's just to your point about Brexit, was that really in the kind of public consciousness, as a word?
- [40:08]
Luke Trill
Right.
- [40:08]
Alex Forsyth
Then you think about the language that we are now so familiar with because of the years that have passed since and the minutiae of the kind, the detail that people have had to get into because of the significant change that it was to all of those key institutions and relationships. A lot of that language and the terms and what they meant and like the Customs Union, it just, you know what I mean? At that time when people were being asked to make a big choice, that it was. It was only through that period that the way that we talked about these things was really started to become as familiar as it might be to some people now.
- [40:37]
Adam Fleming
The main thing is, though, this conversation, I think, is proof that we should carry on with our occasional series. Shout out to my Brex. And if you've got particular milestones you really remember from your life as Brexit unfolded over all those years, then let us know newscastbc.co.uk, or you can WhatsApp us on 033-01-239480. Or maybe you want to message us to say, never mention this ever again and see. But that's all for this episode of Newscast. Thanks to everyone who's been here in the studio with me. We'll be back with another episode very soon.
- [41:06]
Joe Pike
Bye bye.
- [41:08]
Adam Fleming
Newscast.
- [41:09]
Alex Forsyth
Newscast from the BBC.
- [41:11]
Joe Pike
Well, thank you for making it to
- [41:12]
Alex Forsyth
the end of another Newscast.
- [41:14]
Joe Pike
You clearly ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? And then, without having to do anything else, our meandering chat will miraculously make its way to your phone. Sam.