The Week: The War In Iran Escalates

Summary

Newscast Podcast Summary

Episode: The Week: The War In Iran Escalates
Date: March 20, 2026
Host & Contributors: Adam Fleming, Chris Mason, Faisal Islam, Megan McCardell, Jane Corbyn

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Episode Overview

This episode offers a comprehensive recap of a week marked by rapid escalation in the Iran war, with particular focus on the global economic fallout, diverging US-Israel war strategies, and shifting domestic political landscapes. The panel, featuring BBC news experts and Jane Corbyn from Panorama, provides in-depth analysis of the conflict's development, key events, market reactions, and their broader implications for British, American, and international politics.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Unfolding Conflict: Timeline and Escalation

[04:00-05:56]

• Documenting chaos: Jane Corbyn describes the challenges of producing a Panorama documentary amidst daily changes, noting, "Trying to pack it into a half hour program isn't, isn't that easy." ([04:00], Jane Corbyn)
• Escalation's tipping point: Faisal Islam observes that, after initial shock, "the probability of this worst case scenario is now much, much higher," particularly after attacks on key Gulf energy infrastructure ([04:46], Faisal Islam).
• Catalyst events: Israel strikes a natural gas field straddling Iranian and Qatari territory; Iran retaliates by attacking Qatar's gas facilities—Qatar being both a US ally and diplomatic linchpin ([05:36-06:49]).

2. Market and Economic Impact

[07:00-09:14]

• Energy chokepoints: Faisal describes the blockade and attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, noting "we would be looking at record oil and gas prices" with effects cascading globally ([07:00], Faisal Islam).
• Economic leverage as strategy: "The economic impact is... their leverage, it is their counter weapon, it is the very point," says Faisal, underscoring Iranian strategy ([08:14]).
• LNG tanker diversions and shifting oil policies: Unprecedented actions like LNG tankers reversing course and the US considering allowing Iranian oil sales to calm markets ([08:14], Faisal Islam).

3. Political Fallout: International and Domestic

[09:14-18:29]

• Trump’s intervention: Jane reads Donald Trump’s incendiary Truth Social post, which blames Israel for the initial strike—an atypical stance—and threatens severe escalation ([09:27-10:27], Megan McCardell).
  • Notable Quote: "No more attacks will be made by Israel... we will massively blow up the entirety of the Pars gas field." ([09:42], Jane quoting Trump)
• Divergence in US and Israeli aims: Jane explains, "In the meantime, Israel has made it clearer that they are going for regime change... for Trump... it was about essentially degrading the Navy, the Uranian Navy, degrading the missile production facilities, getting rid of the threat of the nuclear program." ([10:39-12:58], Jane Corbyn)
  • Israelis claim degradation of IRGC and assassinations of regime leaders, but population uprising has not materialized ([12:58-13:44], Jane Corbyn).
• Iranian resilience: Despite claimed military setbacks, Iran continues missile strikes; Israel claims 85% of Iranian defenses are down, but this is met with skepticism ([14:20-15:27], Megan McCardell & Faisal Islam).

4. Polls and Public Reaction

[15:28-18:29]

• US: Waning support for war: "56% disapprove of Donald Trump disapproved of the war... 61%... want the war to stop now, even if the aims... are not fulfilled," says Jane McCardell ([17:39], Megan McCardell).
• Israel: Continued war support: Despite no bump for Netanyahu, a majority view Iran as an existential threat, sustaining support for continued military action ([17:39], Megan McCardell).
• UK: Political calculations: Keir Starmer, opponent of Iraq and supporter of international law, finds British public and party opinion broadly aligned, though his polling remains negatively skewed ([18:29-20:52], Chris Mason).

5. Global Responses and Legal Maneuvering

[20:52-23:06]

• International statements: UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Japan issue joint statement on freedom of navigation around Strait of Hormuz; possible "legal avenues" for involvement hinted ([20:52-21:24], Adam Fleming & Chris Mason).
• Navigational risks: Only some tankers, notably Indian-bound after diplomatic intervention, are getting through—often with tracking systems switched off to avoid detection ([21:44-22:55], Megan McCardell & Faisal Islam).
• Naval presence and danger: "The Americans did not feel safe enough to send naval boats anywhere near them," highlighting the real risk for military involvement ([22:55], Faisal Islam & Megan McCardell).

6. Domestic Economic Repercussions

[23:06-28:42]

• Interest rates turmoil: Bank of England holds rates, surprising markets; inflation targets abandoned as war pushes up prices ([23:38-24:21], Faisal Islam).
• Mortgage market impact: "All the mortgage deals... have all been axed quietly," notes Megan, tying escalating rates directly to the conflict ([24:29-24:35], Megan McCardell).
  • Notable Quote: "Domino effect from the missiles going into South Pars..." ([24:36], Faisal Islam)
• Reversal of economic recovery hopes: Ministers' cautious optimism has evaporated; uncertain duration of war makes planning impossible ([25:31-27:18], Adam Fleming, Chris Mason, Faisal Islam).

7. Possible Paths to De-escalation

[28:05-30:23]

• Leadership hopes: Both US and European leaders seek a diplomatic exit—possibly pressuring Israel to declare "mission accomplished" and Iran to reopen shipping lanes ([28:41-29:00], Faisal Islam).
• Iran’s stance: Iranian foreign minister claims "zero restraint if Iranian infrastructure is struck again," showing no willingness to back down ([29:10], Megan McCardell).

8. The Gulf States’ Calculated Restraint

[30:23-31:15]

• Gulf states avoid escalation: Despite provocation, Gulf nations remain restrained, likely aligning more with the US desire to limit the conflict ([30:23-31:15], Faisal Islam & Megan McCardell).
  • Notable Quote: "They have exercised enormous restraint... very roiled waters right now." ([31:15], Megan McCardell)

9. Remaining Uncertainties & Government Response

[31:15-31:58]

• Energy price cap concerns: UK ministers fret over looming expiry of the energy price cap as prices rise ([31:15], Chris Mason).
• Fiscal pressures: Recent crises (Ukraine, COVID) have stretched public finances; another large-scale intervention could have major consequences ([31:45], Chris Mason).
• De-escalation as the only way out: "The repeated thing you hear from the prime minister and others is this is de escalation because that might be eventually some sort of path to this easing. But what if it isn't?" ([31:47-31:58], Chris Mason)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jane Corbyn on documenting the war:
  "It's extraordinary to put something like that together in a week in which so much happens... trying to pack it into a half hour program isn't, isn't that easy." ([04:00])

• Faisal Islam on market shock:
  "You are seeing extraordinary things... LNG tankers full of gas heading for Europe... do a massive U-turn in the Atlantic and go back..." ([08:13])

• Trump’s forceful Truth Social post (via Jane):
  "No more attacks will be made by Israel... we will massively blow up the entirety of the Pars gas field." ([09:42])

• Jane McCardell on Iranian regime resilience:
  "With the regime sort of hydra headed... it's very hard to know... at what point does it fail?" ([13:41])

• Faisal Islam on domino effect:
  "Domino effect from the missiles going into South Pars... then filters through via the Bank of England... into mortgage rates, expectations of rate rises..." ([24:36])

• Chris Mason on lingering uncertainty:
  "The uncertainty is a reality and kind of a negative now and then. Who knows how long it lasts." ([27:18])

• Megan McCardell on Gulf states:
  "...they have exercised enormous restraint. And that I think is what partly tweet from President Trump was about in Qatar's defense..." ([31:15])

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Important Segment Timestamps

• Escalation’s market consequences: [04:46–05:36]
• Strike and counterstrike in Gulf: [05:36–07:00]
• US and Israeli divergent goals: [10:27–12:58]
• Missile production and Israeli claims: [14:20–15:27]
• US/Israel/UK public opinion: [15:28–20:52]
• International legal response & shipping maneuvers: [20:52–22:55]
• Interest rates / domestic economics: [23:06–25:41]
• Paths to de-escalation: [28:41–30:23]
• Gulf states' restraint: [30:23–31:15]

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Conclusion

The Newscast team dissects an unprecedented escalation in the Iran war, exploring consequences that ripple through oil markets, domestic politics on three continents, and daily economic life—from interest rates to mortgages. Throughout, the tone is measured but deeply concerned, highlighting both the unpredictability and the high stakes of this conflict as the search for de-escalation—and a stable future—continues.

Transcript

[Adam Fleming]

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk. The Global Gaming League is presented by Atlas Earth, the fun cashback app. Hey, it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my How We do it gaming team take on Gilly the King and Wallow $267 million gaming in an epic Global Gaming League video game showdown. Plus a halftime performance by multi platinum artist Travy McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins and advances to the championship match right now at globalgamingleague. That's globalgamingleague.com in partnership with Level Up Expo.

[Megan McCardell]

Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic. And it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday, I'm gonna talk to people who see a path forward.

[Faisal Islam]

It does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems where they are.

[Adam Fleming]

You know, I am a believer in America and it's worth fighting for.

[Megan McCardell]

Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Adam Fleming]

Chris, I've got a pitch for you.

[Chris Mason]

All right.

[Adam Fleming]

What are you doing on Saturday 25th April?

[Chris Mason]

My Saturdays are usually free, but.

[Faisal Islam]

Great.

[Chris Mason]

I think you're about to tell me that this one might not be.

[Adam Fleming]

How about something called Cast Fest?

[Chris Mason]

Cast Fest.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, now, we've done one of these before, which is when we get lots of the podcasts from our stable together. We're doing it again on the 25th of April.

[Chris Mason]

Convince me. Where is it?

[Adam Fleming]

It's at Maida vale Studios, the BBC's legendary home of live performances. Now we're talking and they're actually closing down, so we're gonna be some of the last people to ever perform there to that Beatles.

[Chris Mason]

And who do we get to see?

[Adam Fleming]

You, me, Laura, Paddy, Henry, all the Americans.

[Chris Mason]

Oh, I see.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. Fame under fire. Top comment. Mariana's new podcast. We're all gonna be there with a live audience. We will be revealing at a later date how you can actually get tickets for this. This is just to get you to put it in your calendar 25th of April. And also we're exploring a way for people who come and see us while they're there in Maida Vale can make their own podcast.

[Chris Mason]

So I love this. So when I was a kid, I went to the Great Yorkshire show on a school trip, and the thing you could do. And I'd worked out in advance that you could do this. So I went to ven find it. Look North, BBC look north had this little tent where you could go in and I could pretend to be Peter Levy, the superb presenter of look north in Hull and East Yorkshire now, and he used to do the lunchtime news at the time in Yorkshire, and you could sit there and read the auto queue and all of that. And I just love that.

[Adam Fleming]

Does that still exist, a tape of that?

[Chris Mason]

I, I, oh, gosh, that's a good point. I hope not, I hope not. But I just loved doing that. And this is the 2026 kind of equivalent, getting to do that, make your own pod.

[Adam Fleming]

You just have to work out how to actually do it. Yes, but that is in progress. So that is what's happening on Saturday 25th April. And as promised, we will let you know the details of how you can apply for tickets for that event very, very soon. But what you will hear now is the episode of Newscast that me and Chris and other members of the Newscast family recorded on Thursday evening, which is our look back at the momentous events of the week, which was broadcast on BBC1 after question time, but it's now here for you as a podcast.

[Chris Mason]

Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.

[Faisal Islam]

Fat Boy Slim and me in the

[Chris Mason]

classroom doing our violin lessons.

[Faisal Islam]

I was the tattletale in the closet. Can I have an apology, please?

[Adam Fleming]

I trust almost nobody that Daddy has

[Chris Mason]

to sometimes use strong language Next time in mosque.

[Megan McCardell]

I feel delulu with no salulu. Take me down to Downing street let's

[Chris Mason]

go have a tour. Blimey.

[Adam Fleming]

Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio.

[Chris Mason]

And it's Chris in the newscast studio,

[Faisal Islam]

also in the newscast studio.

[Adam Fleming]

And please welcome back Jane Corbyn from Panorama. Hello.

[Megan McCardell]

Hello.

[Adam Fleming]

How was it making a half hour documentary program, which is like a serious bit of work, but the story's just unfolding around you. And of course, your Panorama about the Iran war is on iplayer right now.

[Megan McCardell]

Well, we waited a bit before we started filming for that very reason, because we knew if we started immediately, in three days time, it would be outdated and I think we just about got there. It escalated enormously, obviously, in that first week and. Yeah, well, I'm glad that you've found it useful and interesting. Interesting. And I hope people will watch it on iplayer. It's extraordinary to put something like that together in a week in which so much happens, obviously in Israel, in Iran, of course, most of all in America and in all the Gulf nations. It was extraordinary, really. And trying to pack it into a half hour program isn't, isn't that easy.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, let's see how we can do on this episode of newscast. Faisal, as we're recording on Thursday evening, it feels today in the UK or maybe actually around the world, this felt like the day that the kind of the consequences of the war came home to roost, really.

[Faisal Islam]

Yeah, economically and in the markets. We did have a big spike right at the beginning on the first day. But I think what we got overnight was the sense of escalation. Markets had been sort of treading water holding pattern. It was almost like a 50, 50 split between. This is all going to go away relatively quickly by that, I mean within weeks. And this is going to be the worst case scenario. So we saw some, this exchange of fire with some of most important energy facilities in the world. And it was pretty clear that with those on fire, that this was the escalation that was much feared. And you're suddenly like, well, the probability of this worst case scenario is now much, much higher. Where does this end? And so we saw an impact on markets, you know, extraordinary overnight impact in markets with oil prices and gas prices shooting up.

[Adam Fleming]

And Jane, just to be clear, the reason this was so important is, and the events that led up to all of this turmoil on the markets was the Israel striking the natural gas field in the Persian Gulf, that half of which is in Iranian territory, and then Iran retaliating by hitting Qatar, which is basically the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas.

[Megan McCardell]

Yeah, that oilfield straddles under the Gulf and south pas. The bit in Iran, huge. And the part in Qatar, very significant. And that's exactly what happened. It was sort of almost a chain reaction. And Israel bombed Iran. Iran retaliated by bombing the gas facilities in Qatar. And you know, Qatar, a really a real linchpin in the Gulf and in what's happened in this war because it's kind of been an intermediary between all sides in the past. It's got a huge, the biggest American air base in the Gulf. It hosted the talks between Hamas and Israel. And in fact, for many years Hamas had its headquarters in Qatar. It has had good relations with Iran. It's kind of managed to sort of keep everybody in play. So hitting Qatar was obviously for Trump, for President Trump was a bridge too far and he reacted accordingly.

[Adam Fleming]

And we can talk about his tweet in a second. But Faisal, I just wanted to rewind a little bit. And you were talking about the Worst case scenario. Just explain what that worst case scenario is and why it's the worst.

[Faisal Islam]

Well, if we go back six months, you know, maybe even three months, if you would have told me that the Straits of Hormuz would be blocked, and obviously that's the reference to that sort of small bit between Oman, the Peninsula and Oman and Iran, where it's sort of navigable 10, 15 miles, and you were seeing missiles flying over the Gulf in either direction aimed at capital cities and oil and energy installations. I would say that is the worst case scenario. But essentially we would be looking at record oil and gas prices. We'd be looking at a supply issue that would primarily impact on Asia, but then, because Asia would then seek to sort of back up their supplies by buying in global markets, would then have a cascading effect on Europe and then the Americas.

[Adam Fleming]

Because there'd be more competition for the stuff.

[Faisal Islam]

Exactly. I mean, literally, I could show you a chart of astonishing. Like these, you described them, these LNG tankers full of gas which were heading for Europe and then as soon as the Iran war breaks out, they do a massive U turn in the Atlantic and go back through the.

[Adam Fleming]

For example, is willing to pay more.

[Faisal Islam]

Exactly. You are seeing extraordinary things like the US Treasury Secretary saying, well, actually, do you know all this Iranian oil, you can now buy it. That's where this is going. Because they want to, you know, they want to sort of calm down the oil price. And I think the big picture here is that the economic impact is not some accidental byproduct of this in terms of the Iranians. It is their leverage, it is their counter weapon, it is the very point. And so that makes it very difficult to predict. You know, it's not, you know, and it seems to some, you know, you know, that explains their, then their military strategy, it explains some of the sort of blood curdling threats that are made when you hear from their spokespeople. It explains that the, you know, the American response from people at the Treasury Secretaries to try and diffuse that, but it makes it, it means that in trying to predict the economic impacts, as we try to do, as people at the bank of England try to do, is very, very difficult and it is

[Adam Fleming]

starting to have economic consequences here in the uk. And we saw that today when the bank of England made its decision to hold interest rates. And we'll zoom in on that in a second. But Jane, you've printed off Donald Trump's post from Truth Social, which having looked

[Megan McCardell]

at a lot of Don posts, he posted it.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. So the Timing tells you something.

[Megan McCardell]

Yeah. And it's full of the hyperbole that I think we would associate with his very middle of early hours post.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. But I think it feels the consequences of this are even greater than a lot of these, like, 2am posts.

[Megan McCardell]

Got a lot of capital letters in this post, and it's a very long post. And he accuses, he's accusing Israel for violently lashing out at South Pas gas field. It's sort of almost the language you'd think he would use about Iran, but he's using it about Israel. And then he says, you know, in capital letters, no more attacks will be made by Israel, and then goes on to say, you know, and we, we are taking the upper hand and we will do whatever we need to do without the help and consent of Israel, we will massively blow up the entirety of the Pars gas field. He's talking about if Iran was to retaliate against an innocent, as he puts it, which is Qatar, in this instance of what happened overnight. So, yeah, I think he's not mincing his words.

[Chris Mason]

And, Jane, this is where we get into the different war aims that America and Israel have here. And what they regard as an end game, what they regard as the ultimate. Each of them regard as an ultimate goal.

[Megan McCardell]

Yeah. And when they started, they were seen shoulder to shoulder, and they made it very clear this is a joint action. As the weeks have gone on, as you say, they've diverged. I think for President Trump and for Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, Secretary of War, as he calls himself, it was about essentially degrading the Navy, the Uranian Navy, degrading the missile production facilities, getting rid of the threat of the nuclear program. This is what it was about, hitting their forces. They did talk about regime change, but that very quickly fell down the American agenda. In the meantime, Israel has made it clearer that they are going for regime change. And that is what the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has dreamed of for a long time and in Trump, some would say, found a willing partner. And they are the briefing that's coming out of Israel. And there's been some interesting stuff in the last hour or two that I've seen is that they are managing to degrade the Islamic Republican Guard. They are managing to strike at the heart of the regime. They claim, and they are also claiming that they, and we know that they have killed not only the Supreme Leader and potentially possibly injured his son, the successor, but they have also killed the Ali Larijani who took over as the head of the Security Council in Tehran. So they are going for the regime figureheads. They are trying to undermine the regime through the Islamic Republican Guard, through hitting them and also through hitting the besieged militia who are responsible for putting down and crushing the protests. And all of this is Israel's attempt to encourage the people of Iran to rise up and to take over their own government. It has to be said, so far without much success. But the Israelis are claiming that the irgc, the Islamic Republican Guard are degraded and they're saying that they can't communicate with each other, their command and control is being lost. And they're also saying that some of them are refusing to turn up for duty, which is sometimes the first crack in the edifice. But of course, this is what Israel says and it needs to be checked. And we, I think it will become clear in the next week or two. So I don't think it's going to end quickly where we're headed with this. And if there is an impact on that regime structure, which there hasn't been so far.

[Adam Fleming]

But then of course, tens of millions of Iranians have to listen to Benjamin Netanyahu tonight, pick up the signals that it's safe for them to then go out into the streets to take their country. And that's quite a big asset.

[Megan McCardell]

And at what point do they do that? At what point do they judge it safe to go out? When anything like that that's happened in the past has been met with brutal repression and we believe 10, even tens of thousands of deaths, we don't even know. It's very, very, very difficult for them. I mean, the Israeli will they ever do that? Do they? They have, they have done it in the past. There was a Green Revolution in 2009 when I was in Iran again after a disputed election. A large number of people died, we know that in the January protests.

[Chris Mason]

Large numbers, sure. But I mean, do they ever do that to the point where it's the regime?

[Megan McCardell]

No, I think that's the problem because with the regime sort of hydra headed, as it's been called, with so many people layers prepared to stand up and to take over when the people above them are killed, it is very hard to know when such a web, a regime that's created on so many levels, at what point does it fail, at what point is the pressure there? But it is significant, I think, that they managed to kill the leader of the besieged militia because they are the people who go out on the streets and suppress these protests. And I don't know what signal that's sending to the people of Iran.

[Faisal Islam]

How are they still firing missiles? I mean, obviously there was the claim that everything had been destroyed. But you know, there's now claims that they've hit an F35. I don't know if that's true or not. And there's claims clearly firing a lot of missiles from somewhere.

[Megan McCardell]

They are.

[Faisal Islam]

Where would that be if they've got total air superiority, the Americans and Israelis.

[Megan McCardell]

Well, the Israelis are claiming they have 85% of the defenses are taken out in Iran. They are claiming that tonight. They're also claiming that, yeah. That they have hit the production facilities for the missiles. Not just the missiles. They are claiming that it's degraded to the point of being ineffective. This is the latest out of Israel. But as you say, we've heard that before, haven't we? We've heard that from Pete Hegseth that the missile productions are degraded and the strikes are deep into the heartland of Iran. And they are, but you know, they still seem to be able to and they have with great success in recent days been able to hit Tel Aviv that those missile batteries haven't been able to take all the missiles out and they have been falling and people have been injured and killed in Israel.

[Chris Mason]

Yeah.

[Adam Fleming]

And just to take it back to the pressures on President Trump, we've talked on newscasts a couple of times in the last week or so about how there's lots of people on this sort of Trumpian side of American politics who aren't happy about this. But I just wonder what the economic pressures are on Donald Trump because a lot of the places, Faisal, that you mentioned fighting over oil and gas as a result of this on the markets that doesn't include America because they've got energy self sufficiency. Does that mean Donald Trump doesn't have to worry about the gas price in America increasing and annoying his voters?

[Faisal Islam]

It probably means they don't have a supply issue or problem. And Venezuelan oil, for example, might, might help with that in any event. But the prices are largely set in global markets and they've already filtered through to the ordinary American forecourt. To a Trump supporter, I don't know, filling up his suv, not the ones that have bought electric cars, but maybe there's fewer of them. And yeah, you know, in it and it's very visible. It has a, has an impact. And listen, I don't know, I've seen some of the polls and I've seen some of the filming that our colleagues have done out in the States and it's highly noticeable and I think probably if it was a universally expected and popular war, people would wear that. Right. But you question when you combine that, then with the promise that he made, which is no more of these walls, that these were part of elite liberal kind of thinking and mindsets. And, you know, there are tweets. There always are tweets, aren't they, going back a few years where he kind of decried precisely this sort of war with Iran, then that is sketchy. And, and, and the timing here is very interesting because if this continues, I know we can discuss what the potential time frames are. Now, obviously, the markets indicated that they now think this will last a few weeks, maybe a couple of months. It starts to bleed into July, August, and doesn't go away. Then you're obviously in the time frame for the, for the midterms. And I say again, had it been popular to start with, had it been universally supported, then people would wear a dollar extra on their, you know, on their, on their gas prices. But, you know, clearly that's not necessarily the case.

[Megan McCardell]

Yeah. And the polls are very different, obviously, in America to what they are in Israel. I think in America, it's around 56% disapprove of Donald Trump disapproved of the war and disapproved specifically of Donald Trump's handling of it. And I think 61%, you know, quite a big majority want the war to stop now, even if the aims, if American aims are not fulfilled. But in Israel, people may not necessarily be supporting Benjamin Netanyahu. His ratings haven't gone up, but there is a healthy majority for continuing the war, because I think increasingly, and particularly after the Hamas attacks and the strikes on, that Israel did on Iran last year, on the nuclear front, I think people do feel or do agree with the Prime Minister, the majority of them, that, you know, Iran poses what's called an existential threat, you know, to Israel's very existence. So you've got two very different sets of poles there driving those two leaders, no doubt.

[Adam Fleming]

And if we then talk about British public opinion, Keir Starmer clearly feels he's on the right side of it.

[Chris Mason]

Yeah. I mean, I think from Keir Starmer's perspective, and there haven't been many moments he's had like this. If you think of the kind of Venn diagrams of politics here you have someone who was an opponent of the Iraq war, who reveres international law, and most interpretations of international law, but not all, raise some eyebrows around America and Israel's initial intervention. Then you have the gut feeling of most in the Parliamentary Labour Party, which is broadly in line with the Prime Minister's instinct. And then you have public opinion, which is also broadly in line. Now, there was some polling the other day by YouGov for Sky News that suggested that when you then ask how people interpret the Prime Minister's own decisions around the war, it is a bit more negative, which I think just reflects the negativity around Keir Starmer's polling, even though his decisions do line up, broadly speaking, with the thrust of. Of British public opinion, but then overlapping with Faisal's observations about the. The economic element of this conflict and the consequence it has, and therefore the decisions that politicians then take. I think it's fascinating you see the Prime Minister saying at the beginning of this week, acknowledging publicly the central truth, which he doesn't know how long it's going to go on for, and therefore what the consequences are. A big moment this week for the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, giving what's known as the Mays lecture, and acknowledging, of course, the economic elephant in the room, which is exactly the same question, how long does this go on for and with what consequence? You know, we saw the first kind of intervention as a result of the conflict from the government just the other day with this. This help around for households who were reliant on heating oil in rural areas of the country and in particular in. In Northern Ireland. And then just the sense that, yeah, you know, where does it go from? Now, we've seen this statement today, joint statement from the uk, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan around the Strait of Hormuz and effectively saying, look, we're seeing the impact it's having, pointing to this UN Security Council resolution of recent days around Iran's response to the initial attacks, talking about freedom of navigation of the seas being a fundamental principle, etc. Etc. Not yet saying what might quite happen, but.

[Adam Fleming]

No, but finding. Finding international legal avenues to get involved to protect shipping administrator.

[Chris Mason]

Precisely that. And then being willing to say that publicly now.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah.

[Chris Mason]

I mean, what does that actually add up to, etc. Etc. Within the framework of a bunch of countries that want to remain within the arguments that they've been making in recent weeks. But I think an acknowledgement out loud and in public of where this potentially does go and therefore in an economic context, and where that means they feel they have to potentially move towards.

[Adam Fleming]

But does that go to, like, the UK and other allies joining in, but without joining in?

[Chris Mason]

Well, I mean, that is the big question, and who knows? But I think that, you know, when you read between the lines of this statement, they are, they are beginning to make a public move, aren't they, about what they might be willing to do if things remain sticky around moving stuff through the straits in the, in the time ahead.

[Faisal Islam]

But then you have a look at the ship tracking. So, you know, sometimes we look at the prices of stuff, we look at the markets, and sometimes you look at the trajectory of a ship through the straits. And the thing that's being noticed is that the few tankers that are getting through are basically being diverted very close to the Iranian islands and kind of into Iranian waters now. So no one's entirely clear what's going on. Has the rest of the strait been mined? Is there's talk of like some sort of toll booth on one of the Iranian islands that you have to pay, you know, so. Right.

[Adam Fleming]

Because, Jane, Iran has been letting some

[Megan McCardell]

nation ships through quietly. Last week the Indians got a couple

[Faisal Islam]

of tankers through after a phone call from Modi.

[Megan McCardell]

And you know, we were told there were, there was diplomatic outreach between India and Iran and lo and behold, but those ships as, as far as I know, turned off their, respectively, their transponders, their tracking devices while they made that transition. It's actually called the Bab Al Mandab, the really narrow bit in the Strait of Hormuz. When they went through there, they went dark and then suddenly they popped up heading towards India.

[Chris Mason]

In other words, the potentially safe bit we're not aware of because the tracker was turned off.

[Faisal Islam]

Exactly. But the flip side of this is it's all well and good to say you're going to send your navy in there, but the Americans did not feel safe enough to send naval boats anywhere,

[Megan McCardell]

anywhere near them, anywhere there.

[Faisal Islam]

Whose navy is going to turn up when the only safe bit is 10 miles? I mean, and the geography here really matters. Look at the map. It's not just one spot, it's an entire southern coast of Iran there. I think I, I mean, what, one of the things that has changed, which is perhaps unexpected, is the impact of all of this on interest rates in America and in the uk. I saw the Governor bank of England today. They held interest rates as we were talking about. It's extraordinary just to step back and think how much has changed just in two or three weeks. You know, also it's an extraordinary thing

[Adam Fleming]

how much has just changed in 24 hours because the bank of England had their meeting about holding interest rates the day before they did the various things

[Faisal Islam]

we were talking about and then the price shot up. But if we do go back to the day before. I think we were in this room, weren't we, a couple of days before it started. You know, the expectation was that interest rates would be cut. They were held and there was a sort of idea that they might end up going up. We assumed inflation will be going down to 2%. The governor told me today, three and a half percent is where it's heading now. It's not going to go back to target. All sorts of other assumptions. You know, if you're Rachel Reeves and, and. Or the Prime Minister, you know, you're looking at some of the data, which is not brilliant, but it was starting

[Chris Mason]

to turn the corner and government ministers were just starting to try and reflect that.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, now we're reversing back. The country's reversing back around the corner,

[Megan McCardell]

bleeping on, depending on been withdrawn. It's had a huge knock on.

[Faisal Islam]

And all the mortgage deals, exactly, they've

[Megan McCardell]

all been axed quietly.

[Faisal Islam]

Domino effect from the missiles going into South Pars. This astonishing story of it being the same field, right, which, you know, they sort of got two straws at either end, trying to get the gas out and sell it around the world. But a missile goes into. Into South Pars and it then filters through via the bank of England, via expectations of interest rates, into people, into mortgage rates for fixed mortgages, going up, expectations of rate rises. I should not downplay the impact upon the effective borrowing rate for government. Like this time last year, had it happen, we'd be talking about the need for tax rises because the interest costs would have gone up. We're talking a significant rise, really, in the past seven or eight days. So. And that has happened around the world too. But there are question marks about how that impacts on the UK specifically. So, you know, you're suddenly in quite a different moment depending on how long it lasts.

[Adam Fleming]

But, Chris, when you see. When you see ministers and advisors, can you tell that their dreams of economic recovery in a more stable political climate as a result evaporating?

[Chris Mason]

Well, so I was talking to a very senior minister just the other day and just riffing on this exact point where, granted, a few weeks back, pre, Pre the war, they were. They were conscious they needed to. To temper their public language because no politician wants to be overdoing a sense of economic improvement. When a voter might say, well, come off it. It's, you know, you're going, you're going too soon. But it is reasonable to say there were some, not all, but some indicators that were. That were looking more positive and ministers were noticing that, my goodness, of course they were. Because. Because things have been, have been difficult for, for ages. And you were beginning to hear it in the language of people like the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister was sounding tentatively, a bit more optimistic and this Minister I was speaking to, I mean it wasn't suddenly that they were utterly doom laden, but it was that the main point was just that sense to come back to the point Pfizer was making. And we, and we sort of can't emphasize enough because it reaches those in the uppermost echelons of whether it's the bank of England or in government of just not knowing, just not knowing what the longevity is therefore not knowing for how long consequences take on a micro level day to day as per the last 24 hours, rather illustrating it. But then. Yeah. How long does it go on? What consequence does that have? Elections in the context not just of the midterms in America, but elections coming up in Scotland, Wales and in plenty of places around England in just a couple of months. All sorts of knock ons that are currently imponderable. But the uncertainty is a reality and kind of a negative now and then. Who knows how long it lasts.

[Adam Fleming]

I was reading the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee from the bank of it.

[Faisal Islam]

Very good, very.

[Chris Mason]

Faisal's putting up the share price of Fleming.

[Adam Fleming]

Just. That's much my humble brag. And there's just one sentence that is lodged in my brain and they talk about how expectations for inflation have gone back up again now and they talk about how they'd have, they'd previously gone down because of the decisions Rachel Reeves had made at the last budget to take a big chunk off people's energy bills. And so it's like Rachel Reeves takes with one hand and then, or gives with one hand and then the global security situation takes with the other. And we're back, sort of back to square. Had that real feel of oh, back to square one.

[Faisal Islam]

Astonishing amounts of effort had gone in very specifically to try to cut the inflation number that is just about to come in April because last year when the mobile phone bills went up and you know, various other utility bills, they go up in April. It's the April surprise. And so they went, they literally tried to sort of engineer and, and, and, and commit sort of economic surgery just to reverse that, get inflation down to target. All that's gone. Yeah, all of that's gone. All right, it's going to go up, inflation will go up. But as I say, and it's interesting why they're all and including the bank of England governor now talking about some sort of pathway to de escalation, which

[Megan McCardell]

I think that's it, isn't it?

[Faisal Islam]

Well, in their dreams. I think they hope, even if there isn't an agreed de escalation, the Americans somehow persuade the Israelis to say its mission accomplished and then I think, is it the Europeans go in and persuade the Iranians to unblock the streets?

[Megan McCardell]

First of all, does that work? Do what we've been talking about today? They've got to de escalate the attacks on energy supplies. I mean, that's the first thing that has to happen and that's what happens.

[Adam Fleming]

And that was the other thing in that statement.

[Megan McCardell]

And that statement the Trump tweet was about. And the Israelis rather, you know, have rather feistily said we did it with the coordination of America, but then they let it be known that we perhaps we're not going to do it again. So, you know, I think they've been pulled up short. And Iran, I mean, which we have to, you know, whatever's degrading of their assets, we're told is happening. They are still very bullish. The Foreign Minister has said that there will be zero restraint if Iranian infrastructure is struck again. And he's sort of echoing the kind of language we hear from the Pentagon. He's saying we've only employed a fraction of our power. Now I think we have to think that that is, you know, maybe hot air and propaganda. But the Iranians show no signs of buckling. So first of all, stop the attacks, deescalate the attacks on the energy installations and locations and then find a way out of this. Find a way, as you say, to get Israel to acknowledge its war aims have been completed. Trump will do something similar and they will attempt to back out of it. But again, we still have that big difference of aim between Israel and America.

[Faisal Islam]

Sorry, would you think the Gulf nations, I mean, obviously one of the sites important shows here is whether the Gulf nations join in. They've been fairly restrained. Do they have been hugely provoked, but they aren't hitting back.

[Megan McCardell]

No, they're not. And I think they are on the, if you like, if you put Israel at one end of the scale and America at the other. Now wanting for all the reasons you've explained with what's happening in the economy, economy to pull back, I would put the Gulf nations down towards that end of the scale. I mean, I think that they have been, they have exercised enormous restraint. And that I think is what partly tweet from. The tweet from President Trump was about in Qatar's defense was like, don't go there, you know, and if you do, we're going to be hitting really hard next time and we will not consult Israel. So that was almost trying to smooth the waters of the Gulf countries, I think. And the Gulf very roiled waters right now, but yeah.

[Chris Mason]

And then loitering in the minds of ministers here, just in the domestic focus, you know, is an energy price cap that has got a couple of months left in it. All of this uncertainty around timelines and what do you do if things are still pretty lively in terms of economic consequence and all the rest of it in a few months time and when given the scale of recent government interventions, when you think back to the full scale invasion of Ukraine and Covid before that and the consequences that has had for the public finances, etc.

[Faisal Islam]

Etc.

[Chris Mason]

Whoa. Blimey. And so of course the repeated thing you hear from the prime minister and others is this is de escalation because that might be eventually some sort of path to this easing.

[Faisal Islam]

But.

[Chris Mason]

But what if it isn't?

[Faisal Islam]

Right.

[Adam Fleming]

And that's all we've got time for in this episode of Newscast. Jane, thank you very much. Thank you, Faisal, thanks to you too.

[Faisal Islam]

Thanks.

[Adam Fleming]

And Chris, good to catch up.

[Chris Mason]

Thank you.

[Adam Fleming]

And we'll be back with another episode of Newscast very soon.

[Faisal Islam]

Bye bye.

[Chris Mason]

Newscast, Newscast from the BBC, from one

[Megan McCardell]

newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know and don't forget, you can email us [e-mail] or if you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on 440-3301-239480. Be assured, I promise, we listen to everyone. Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic. And it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm gonna talk to people who see a path forward.

[Faisal Islam]

It does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems where they are.

[Adam Fleming]

You know, I am a believer in America and that's worth fighting for.

[Megan McCardell]

Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.