B (1:46)

Explain to newscasters what you do in your, quote, free time.

D (1:50)

I study. I do a degree in war studies, my master's at King's College London.

B (1:56)

Well, first of all, how do you find the time, especially when you're covering the news 24 7?

D (2:00)

It's difficult. It's not easy. Like the first semester, for three days a week I was going to university and four days a week I was at work, so no free time. But this semester it was a bit easier. So I had one day off.

B (2:12)

And what's it like covering a war in real time in your day job and then thinking about war from a kind of academic perspective in your degree,

D (2:20)

it's actually quite amazing because it's more in depth. You know, news is like really fast paced usually, especially if there's breaking news. However, universities like more in depth, more Reading. I think as a journalist you need that kind of input as well, you know, sometimes to take off and to just delve more into a topic to get more insight.

B (2:40)

Well, students of the future, Katrina, will be trying to work out what changed between Tuesday night when Donald Trump was on Truth Social, saying that potentially a civilization was gonna come to an end overnight. And then when we all woke up in the UK to the news that actually there was gonna be a two week cease between the US and Iran. Is there a theory about just what happened in that period?

C (3:04)

Not a theory that we could stand over at this point in time? I mean, I think in reality was that there were some frantic back channeling negotiations going on. There's some reporting here in the US that it was actually the White House putting pressure on Pakistan to come up with this offer of a ceasefire that kind of came out. I mean, it was mid afternoon here in the East Coast, I guess kind of coming up to bedtime there in the UK when this offer of a two week ceasefire was put on the table. We were told Donald Trump was looking at it. And then all of a sudden around about 6:30pm east coast time here, 11:30 there in the UK and I guess middle of the night in Iran, the news that the President had said he was accepting it, followed by the news that Iran had said they were accepting it. A little bit of sort of gray area as to where Israel stands on all of this. It's been a lot of back and forth on that and a lot of striking continu continuing in Lebanon. And suddenly a total change in tone from President Trump. No F bombs, no threatening that a whole civilization would die overnight. And suddenly we're back to I am the President of peace and I've done this great deal and I've won and declared victory. Which was kind of the tone then that we heard this morning from Secretary P. Hegseth as well, the Defense Secretary or War Secretary, you know, again, kind of lauding President Trump's efforts here and how this was all over. I mean, it's not all over, clearly. It's a two week ceasefire with talk still to follow. And the parties would appear to be still really quite far apart.

B (4:41)

And just in process terms, Katrina, the next big thing we're expecting looks like actual negotiations in person in Islamabad, in Pakistan on Friday.

C (4:52)

Yeah, that's what is set as of now. There has been some suggestion, perhaps The Vice President, J.D. vance himself may go there. He's in Hungary at the moment. Obviously he was there with Viktor Orban. He's been doing a few speeches. His diary is clear for the rest of the day. So we've made a few inquiries. We've kind of been told to watch this space. So that would obviously be a huge development if JD Vance himself was to go there. President Trump not kind of ruling out that perhaps he may be involved at some point in the future. But, you know, we've been there before with those sorts of suggestions, questions, when you think back to the Russia Ukraine talks and suggestions that people would meet in person, and then it doesn't come to pass. But I think even the concept of having talks and somebody being there and somebody meeting in Aslamabad is a better place than we were in this time yesterday.

B (5:44)

So, Parham, in the last 12, 18, 24 hours, there have been no Iranian drones going to the Gulf States, no American warplanes dropping ordinance from the air over Iran. That's as far as we know. Has all stopped?

D (5:59)

No, it hasn't, actually. So what happened was that today after the ceasefire, what we heard was that two Iranian islands were targeted, and Iranian Oil Ministry confirmed that that they were targeted. There were some oil facilities there that were hit. And at the same time, Emiratis and Bahrainis said that they had to fight off Iranian drones and intercept them. And there's a pipeline, east west pipeline in Saudi Arabia that was trying to be struck as well. The Iranians were trying to strike it. So it appears that it was a retaliation for the striking Iranian oil facilities. But these things sometimes happen when there is a ceasefire. It's not immediately implemented.

B (6:44)

Yeah, I always think of what Jeremy Bowen said on newscast probably a few years ago now about ceasefires, that the implementation at the start can be quite ragged. It's not just the clock hits a certain point and everything stops. A lot of the focus on how this ceasefire will be implemented elsewhere is about the Strait of Hormuz. And it now seems to me there's quite a big linguistic argument going on about what the word open means. And different people have different interpretations of what open is. I mean, I suppose the Iranian interpretation is the one that will hold because they're the ones that control that waterway.

D (7:18)

Exactly. So Iranians are saying that one of the most significant developments in this war is that Iranians right now want to impose tolls on the ships that go through. It appears that Iranians have managed to take hold of this Strait of Hormuz and it has worked as a great leverage against the United States and the world. It has worked so far, and the objective of the war has changed. Over time as well. So from the beginning of the war, let's not forget that Donald Trump said that help is on the way and they're going to free Iranian people. However, after the war broke out, after a few weeks, the objective totally changed into opening up the Strait of Hormuz. And before the ceasefire, Donald Trump was furious and one of his conditions was that they have to open this Strait of Hormuz. So. But let's not forget that this place was open before the war. It was not an issue. And Iran. So Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that is known as Iranian nuclear deal, signed under Obama, signed with Obama to have a better deal. That deal did not happen. Iran started enriching uranium to 60% purity. And then the war broke out and none of this has been. None of these issues have been solved and still the 400 kilogram of 60% uranium are in Iran. And Donald Trump is saying, we're going to watch them from above, from space.

B (8:46)

Yeah, well, we'll talk about the enriched uranium in a second. But, Katrina, that thing about the Strait of Hormuz, you would think from listening to Donald Trump, that traffic will be resuming and on its way to being at levels that it was before the war. But actually, just before we started recording this episode of newscast, there was a message from the Iranians saying, no, it's still closed, and at best, only ships that have permission from Iran will be able to get through.

C (9:10)

Yeah, exactly. So this is where the sort of Gulf, if you excuse a pun, opens up between what's agreed or understood to be agreed as part of this ceasefire and what's actually been agreed. And you referenced Jeremy's quote there about ceasefires being ragged. This is the raggedy, raggedy part of it. What's in, what's out. How does that actually work out in practice? And it's not just a matter of, oh, okay, every ship can sail up the Strait now. And Iran, for its part, I mean, this has turned out to be its kind of golden jewel in its crown, having control over the Strait of Hormuz. It's not something that it's going to give up very easily, particularly when we're already hearing from President Trump that perhaps some of the things in this plan proposal that have been floated around are not things that the US is ultimately going to sign up to. So, you know, we're only a few hours into this. There's a great deal of nervousness and hesitancy and a great deal, I suppose, a great lack of trust between the parties as well.

B (10:14)

And Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, has just landed in Saudi Arabia before we started recording this episode, visiting a few Gulf countries, we think. And he says that actually there'll still be quite a lot of work to do to make sure the Strait of Hormuz is, is open in the way it was before. And also it sounds Katrina like he thinks there's still going to be quite a lot of work to get the ceasefire from being temporary to being per. And I suppose that's back to where we started off our conversation.

C (10:40)

There's a huge amount of work still to be done and not least over the issue of Lebanon. You know, Pakistan seems to be saying that Lebanon is included in this deal. Israel is saying it isn't. President Trump has been speaking to a PBS NewsHour reporter today and said that Lebanon is not part of the deal because Hezbollah is not part of the deal. He said they'll get taken care of too, whatever that means. But of course, one of the original state objectives that President Trump has given for beginning this whole thing with Iran was about shutting down the proxies and the funding to the proxies of which Hezbollah is on that list. So it seems even there's great confusion about what is or isn't involved here. And, you know, is Iran going to hold onto this deal if the Israel Hezbollah conflict is still raging extremely hotly?

B (11:32)

And I should just say that Lyse Doucet is going to pop up in the studio at any point. So if you hear some rustling, that'll be Lys creeping in and getting ready to tell Take Parham just when it comes to what's actually on the table now, it seems that There is a 15 point plan for the Americans, a 10 point plan from the Iranians that Donald Trump has referred to as being a basis for negotiation. But also, I'm just seeing the White House is denying that the 10 point plan that's being circulated in the media today isn't the ten point plan that they've received from the Iranians.

D (12:04)

That's correct. So the two sides have got two different narratives of and at the same time, both sides are claiming victory. So Donald Trump is saying that that was an absol victory. We achieved more than what we intended at the beginning. Iranians are saying the same. But what happens is that sometimes the war have got unintended consequences. And at first, both Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump said that one of the aims of this war is regime change that did not materialize. Not only that One of the unintended consequences was the blockade of a Strait of Hormuz. And from now on, it seems that Iran has gained this, you know, strategic success, that it is going to be an undeniable party to the traffic of this kormos. And this might be, you know, something new to non Iranians. However, for Iranians, they all knew it because Iranian hardliners have been asking and asking for this to block the Strait of Hormuz for decades. For decades now.

B (13:00)

It's always been an option.

D (13:02)

It has always been an option. And now they have. After Khamenei has been killed, it appears that the Revolutionary Guards have the upper hand in Iran.

B (13:10)

Just gonna do some traffic directing because Lis is here. She's going to sit down. Good to see you. At least move that, move that microphone. Wait till you find out what else Bahram does in his spare time. He's doing, he's doing a degree in war studies in his spare time.

E (13:27)

We were just hearing you've got a PhD in war anyway.

B (13:31)

Well, I was going to say that's like.

E (13:34)

But let me, let me enter this conversation. It's like entering the Strait of Hormu, no toll. I'm quite dangerous in because we've just had a factual account of what has happened or not happened in Iran, except President Trump's version is completely different. So as Param said, there has been no regime change. Not only does it remain in place with new leaders, but they're even more hard line. What do we hear from President Trump every hour for many days we've had productive regime change is how he's described it. And the new leaders are much more reasonable. Parham has said the Strait of Hormuz is still under Iran's control. President Trump has been saying that the strait has been opened. And he's in one of his many interviews with journalists who are now calling him up. I don't know where he finds time to do anything else. Every day he's picking up the phone and talking to journalists. And he floated the idea that he could have joint control of the straight before moves with Iran. So he's gone.

B (14:34)

It could be a joint money raising scheme.

E (14:35)

So he's gone from demanding Iran and demanding in capital letters with exclamation marks that Iran should open the strait now or else to saying, well, we could, we could both, we could both control the, the tolls. And as he put it in one of his truth sociables, we'll be hanging around helping the tankers go through. It's very Very hard to square the statements that he makes from one day to the next and sometimes from one hour to the next.

B (15:03)

But Lis, you, you said that the new regime in Iran or the continuation of the old reg form is increasingly hard line or more hardline than its predecessors, but they have negotiated a ceasefire and agreed to a ceasefire. So they've sort of laid down their drones. That's not a hard line.

E (15:21)

Is is very interesting because even though it's often the case that when wars end, when wars end during the war and when it ends, you have to try to shape the narrative and each side will say that they've won, that's for their supporters and for their enemies. And so Iran is saying this as is claiming this as a victory and it believes it has succeeded in many ways. It's still surviving and it's still controlling the Strait of Hormuz. But it had been saying it wouldn't accept a ceasefire. So I don't know what you make of that Param. So it seems to have accepted this, but only on there must some reassurances must have been given to them that this would lead to a permanent end to the we understand that it wasn't just Pakistan's top general, the Field Marshal Asimouni who was on the phone sending messages and that's difficult right now given the communications difficulties with Iran. But President Trump himself confirmed that China also got Iran, which I think was also very important to Iran. They need. They don't trust President Trump at all, they don't trust his envoys and with reason. The last two rounds of negotiation were shattered by U S backed Israeli strikes, obviously Katrina.

B (16:36)

There's triumphalism coming from the Defence Department, now known as the War Department by itself, and there's triumphalism coming from President Trump. Is there any sense what's the mood in the rest of America and the rest of the system?

C (16:50)

I think in general, the rest of America, it's a sweeping generalization, but is slightly relieved that the tone and the temper has gone down from yesterday. I would say over the last few days a lot of colleagues went home for Easter break and Passover and so on and reporting back from their families and friends in other parts of the country. People aren't engaged really in what's going on in the minutiae detail like we are. They're more concerned about the rising price of fuel and all the other cost of living things that we've talked about here. But on a political front, there's, you know, continued outrage from the Democrats about the manner in all of how this has been conducted. Still, those calls for, you know, removal of the president that we saw yesterday in the wake of those tweets, Bernie Sanders, the senator, is saying he's bringing a bill next week to stop US Military aid to Israel entirely. So there will be some support for that as well, because we are seeing with this sort of break in position between the US And Israel over the last few weeks, we are seeing a rising level in the polls here of people not not wanting to support Israel in the way the US Traditionally has, questioning more and more why the US Gives such unwavering support to Israel. And no doubt that we'll see that continue to rise as well. Interestingly, Lindsey Graham, Republican senator and a very close ally of President Trump and very, very hawkish when it comes to what's been going on in Iran. He's been talking this morning and sort of reserving judgment on this deal. And again, as you guys have been discussing there, we don't really know what's in this seem to be varying accounts of what is or isn't potentially on the table. But he has said that there are some troubling aspects to it, and he wants the president to come forward to Congress and explain just what he's thinking about doing here. And this is all going to come to a head in the next couple of weeks when the president comes looking for more funding for this war. And speaking to some Republicans over the last day or two, they're really now starting to question just how much money the US should be spending on this.

B (19:09)

And also there's a big piece in the New York Times where their superstar reporters have managed to basically get a readout of the the administration's conversations in this in the Situation Room when they were deciding whether to press the button or not.

C (19:22)

Yeah. This is extraordinary. An article from Maggie Haberman in the New York Times. And it's about it's from a book, basically, that's coming out later in the summer she and her colleague have put together on and there's a piece in the New York Times. I I'd urge people to read it. It's quite long, so set aside a bit of your evening to do that. But starts the piece On the 11th of February, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was at the White House. I was at the White House that day. And I do remember remarking how odd it was that Prime Minister Netanyahu didn't come in with the usual bells and whistles up the driveway, no photo ops, no press conferences. And so on came in a side door, very serious meeting was held, as Maggie Haberman's reporting, with a small group of people very senior to the president, notably the Vice president not there he was in Azerbaijan that day. And apparently this is Prime Minister Netanyahu laid out the plans that he had to strike Iran and basically persuading or attempting to persuade President Trump to join in with him. And then Maggie Haberman sets out what happened between there, right up until 28 February, and the different levels of advice that the President was being given, or not given, as the case may be. I mean, it was quite notable to me that a lot of people seemed to be not, not giving an opinion on what the President should do, but just sort of saying, well, it's up to you, sir, and you should do this if you decide you should, I'll support you. She says. J.D. vance said, I don't think it's a good idea, but I'll support you if you do. Go ahead. And that is in line with what we've been hearing from the Vice President in public on this as well. But it just speaks to that close tie, not so much between the US And Israel, but between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump, but those two men

B (21:09)

directly themselves, and least to bring it right up to date. Now, we were nodded to this earlier on in this episode, but is there a potential for this ceasefire to fall apart because of what's happening between Israel and Lebanon and Hezbollah?

E (21:23)

It's interesting, this war. We perhaps we don't have to remind ourselves this is either you see it as a separate war, it's a continuation of the Gaza war of 2023. And there have been moments like this before. And in fact, you can even go back to what's happened in recent Iranian history. Do you remember the 12 Day War announced a ceasefire and Israel still wanted to keep attacking. And then there was that post on social media where President Trump basically said, send those bombers back, don't attack. The war is over. And the, the Israelis complied. And similarly, when the very still very shaky ceasefire in the Gaza Strip came into force, when Israel kept Israel assassinated Hamas leader, President Trump put him on notice and said, I don't want you to keep doing this. So today I was thinking, well, when we heard the Pakistani Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif saying there's a ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, no, Lebanon's not included. Iran expressed concern. And then I thought, what is President Trump going to say? He's the only one. If he really wants to keep this deal. If he wants it to stick, he's going to have to reign in Israel. And he didn't. He said Lebanon is not included.

B (22:37)

And Lisa, I'm going to give you an exam question. This is more like the reference to Parham's degree here. And it's.

E (22:43)

I only have a BA in war science.

B (22:45)

He's got a PhD and it's, it's the question about, about winners and losers here, because there's a lot of discourse about who, who's won and who's lost or whether everyone's a loser. And so I'm going to give you some time to think about that exam question while Parham asked my question about, have you got any sense about how Iranians themselves in Iran are reacting to these extraordinary events? Whether it's that amazing, amazing threat From Donald Trump 26 hours ago or whether it looks like the war is over, at least for a bit?

D (23:18)

You know, there's an Internet blackout. But I managed to talk only to two people since last night. One of them has access to Starlink. She sent me a photo of her and she had this rash on her skin out of stress, she was saying, because they were thinking that Donald Trump is going to drop nuclear bomb on Iran after saying that the entire civilization is going to die tonight. So she was saying that. I cannot tell you how stressed we are. Whoever I talk to. We can't eat, we can't sleep. These are really, you know, extremely difficult moments for us. So after the ceasefire was announced, she was relieved. She was against the war from the very beginning, but she's against the regime as well. However, there was another person that I received her audio message today, and she was crying her heart out. She was saying that we endured this war hoping that the regime would fall, that we are going to see the overthrow of this regime. However, they have remained and they're going to be more emboldened and more confident because they are going to say that, listen, we managed to kill thousands of our own citizen. We managed to, you know, survive a war with the most powerful military in the world and the most advanced military in the Middle East. And we are still in place, not only the, that we have the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Nobody can remove this regime from now on. So she was totally devastated. So there are different moods in the country. Some people are relieved because there are no more bombings. Businesses usually can go back to work because it's really difficult to make money in Iran right now, especially with this inflation. However, others are totally devastated because they think that they have to deal with this regime again.

B (24:59)

And is there a possibility that in two weeks, two months, two years, there's still an Iranian nuclear program?

D (25:06)

I don't see any sign. There is still even in this, the bullet points that they've sent their request, nuclear enrichment is there. They said that they want to have nuclear enrichment. There is no sign or at least I don't see any sign that they are going to give up on their nuclear enrichment program.

B (25:23)

Lisa, your exam question. Lots of people saying, oh, Iran has won, America has lost. What's your take on, on winners, losers?

E (25:31)

I'll answer it in two parts, one, and I'm sure I've said it on this program. When wars unfold, if you have a PhD in War Studies, you know this. When wars unfold, they unfold on two levels. It's what happens on the ground, the physical, concrete manifestations of who won, who lost. And then there is the narrative, the perceptions of what happened on the ground, which also unfold, and it's been my observation in covering wars for a long time, that is the perception of what has happened often matters more in the course of this war than what really happened. So when the Iranians say we won and they convince themselves and those around them they won, it helps to frame their narrative. And the end, too, in the United States, when they say, as they have done, President Trump has been saying since almost the beginning of this war, we've won, we just need to win a little bit more. So what matters is what it doesn't matter what the reality on the ground is. Yes, Iran has lost significant military capabilities. Yes, many of their leaders were assassinated. They feel they, they won. And in some ways they did win. And in some ways the Americans did win. But the losers we've just been heard are the people of Iran. I keep thinking when we were there in February, people were reeling from, we talk about 4% inflation in the UK, 60% inflation and also the collapse of the real currency, looking for way out, desperate for sanctions to be lifted, desperate for there to be an end to the mismanagement and corruption. I keep thinking, what is it going to be like after the war? There's no sign yet that sanctions will be lifted. The negotiations have to succeed. Perhaps Iran is now seeing the control of the Strait of Hormuz as their lifeline. If they can't get sanctions lifted, then at least they can have money coming in from this control. But even that now, of course, is contested. So the people of Iran are suffering. The people of the region. Think of the migrant workers who work across the Gulf States. The hospitality industry is gone dark. Hotel occupancies are down. Families, millions of families are being supported by those industries. Are they going to be sent home? The civilians of Israel, Israel, the civilians of Lebanon. This is a war where the people are losing and the winners think they're winning.

B (27:44)

A plus for that answer. Lisa, thank you very much. Is there anything else you want to add to this situation? Because we didn't give you the whole podcast.

E (27:53)

I think the big question now is the ceasefire is shaky and fragile. Even Pete Hexeth who tends to speak in triumphal terms. Dr. Butters, the fragile ceasefire is always, always is what comes next. And then I think we have to start looking at the so called peace talks which are supposed to be taking place in Pakistan. We have to say that we're recording at five past six in the evening because things are changing by the hour. There are reports that J.D. vance, the US vice president, is not going to go to Islamabad because of security concerns. President Trump mentioned this in many of his interviews. But as Param knows so well, the Iranians do not want to use to negotiate anymore with President Trump's preferred envoy, Steve Witkoff, and with Jared Kushner. They see it as a Trojan horse. Both times they negotiated with them, it ended in war. They see them as too pro Israeli. Whatever the reality, they see them as too pro Israeli. And so they wanted a higher level. And of course JD Vance has been one of the skeptics about this war. If he's not going, then who is going to go? And if there's not going to be senior representation on the American side, then will the Iranians really, for them, it's a huge concession. The way they see this for them to the heartlanders have always held Abbasa Rakchi, the foreign Minister, back from direct talks, even though they did meet direct face to face. But mostly they were indirect. So even now this, the two, this, these negotiations, talks that it's hard to call them negotiations and it's a bit with a heavy heart. I keep thinking back to 2015 where all sides and it was a multilateral negotiation with America and members of the Security Council, then the eu, the Iranians, they both had their top negotiators, their top nuclear experts, their top experts who understand each other. They went, it was for two and a half years and the last in the run up to the deal, they went to Vienna for what they thought would be six days. They stayed, no one moved for 22 days. They negotiated around the clock to get a deal. That is what it's going to take and there's no sign at all that that's what that the Pres. President Trump understands that this is what it's going to take.

B (30:05)

Some really good final thoughts. Lis, thank you very much.

E (30:08)

Thank you.

B (30:08)

Param, thank you very much. Thanks for having me and good luck with your studies.

D (30:11)

Thank you.

E (30:11)

Dr.

B (30:13)

It's a master's degree. Katrina.

E (30:17)

Good to talk to you. Katrina.

C (30:19)

Bye.

B (30:24)

And just after Leese Parham and Katrina recorded that bit of newscast, we were watching a briefing at the White House given by Caroline Levitt, who is the President's press secretary, and she confirmed that J.D. vance, the vice president, will lead the U.S. delegation in negotiations with Iran, which will take place in Islamabad in Pakistan, as she explained, on Saturday morning local time. So Friday night in the UK and that is you up to date at 6:40 on Wednesday evening with this episode of Newscast. We'll be back with another one very soon. Bye bye.

C (30:57)

Newscast Newscast from the BBC.

B (31:00)

Well, thank you for making it to the end of another newscast. You clearly ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? And then without having to do anything else, our meandering chat will miraculously make its way to your phone.

A (31:26)

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