What Has Changed After UK Recognises Palestine?

Summary

Newscast – “What Has Changed After UK Recognises Palestine?”

BBC News Podcast, Hosted by Adam Fleming with Katrina Perry, James Landale, Vicky Young, and Ben Chu
Date: September 22, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode of Newscast examines the impact and practicalities following the United Kingdom's recognition of a Palestinian state. Set at the start of the annual United Nations General Assembly in New York, Adam Fleming checks in with Katrina Perry and James Landale—both on the ground at the UN—about what the recognition means on a diplomatic, symbolic, and practical level. The episode also explores the changing language in UK foreign policy, the knock-on effects among the UN and the EU, US involvement, and a major UK domestic political development regarding Reform UK's new immigration policies.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. What Does UK Recognition of Palestine Actually Mean?

• Diplomatic Shifts:
  James Landale explains that recognition by the UK will lead to technical differences, like the Palestinian mission in London becoming a formal embassy and its head gaining the title of ambassador. However, there are unresolved questions, e.g., what happens to Britain's Consulate General in East Jerusalem.

  “There will be some technical differences... the Palestinian mission in London will, we expect, become a formal embassy.” – James Landale [04:04]

• Symbolism vs. Substance:
  There is no clear answer to who the UK would recognize as the Palestinian head of state, given the lack of contiguous borders, recognised capital, or unified leadership. Thus, the move is seen more as recognition of the idea of a Palestinian state.

  "What we're seeing here really is the recognition of an idea that such a thing should exist... we're a long way away from that." – James Landale [05:15]

2. International Momentum and Symbolic Value

• Pressure and Hope:
  Katrina Perry shares that, for many in the Arab world, UK recognition gives hope and increases pressure especially on the US. This momentum is growing as other countries (e.g., Portugal, Australia, Canada) also join in.

  “It gives hope, hope to that movement... ultimately, that's putting pressure on the United States.” – Katrina Perry [07:57]

• EU and Global Dynamics:
  The more EU member states that formally recognize Palestine, the more likely the bloc will move collectively. This could eventually lead to bigger actions such as trade embargoes, which might pressure Israel further.

  “...that may lead to that ceasefire that seems so elusive as we're standing here talking right now.” – Katrina Perry [09:02]

3. The US Role and Diplomatic Logistics

• American Gatekeeping:
  Mahmoud Abbas (head of the Palestinian Authority) isn’t allowed into the US for the UN, whereas Israeli PM Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House. This selective access underlines the power America holds over the process and the diplomatic limits Palestinians face.

  “It just shows the level of control that the US has over this situation.” – Katrina Perry [09:35]

• Potential Fallout:
  If Israel moves towards annexation of the West Bank, that could threaten the Abraham Accords (normalization deals), which are seen as part of Trump’s legacy—something he will be keen to protect.

  “He will not want to upset that particular apple cart. So I think the Israelis are going to be treading carefully...” – James Landale [11:21]

4. Occupation vs. Annexation—Language and Implications

• Key Distinction:
  Landale breaks down the difference between 'occupation' (control or military presence in a territory) and 'annexation' (formal claim and change of legal status). Annexation of West Bank territory would essentially end hopes for a two-state solution.

  “It would be seen as incredibly aggressive, effectively... making final the impossibility of a two-state solution.” – James Landale [12:23]

• Changing Official Language:
  The UK Foreign Office has already updated terminology—switching from “Occupied Palestinian Territories” to “Palestine”—marking an official policy shift.

  “Some of the language will change, definitely.” – James Landale [13:20]

5. Inside the UN General Assembly: Atmosphere and Real Diplomacy

• Lively, Unexpected Encounters:
  Perry and Landale describe the UN General Assembly as “the Olympics of diplomacy”—full of chance meetings, traditional dress, and a compressed, vibrant power dynamic unique to these annual gatherings.

  “It's basically the Olympics of diplomacy... you can actually wander in.” – James Landale [14:57]

6. Major UK Domestic Story: Reform UK’s Migration Policy

• Proposal Details:
  Reform UK proposes scrapping “indefinite leave to remain” (ILR)—an immigration status just below citizenship—retroactively and for future applicants. Existing ILR holders would have to reapply under stricter criteria every five years.

  “There will be people... who are also going to have to reapply... different criteria, there will be tougher rules...” – Vicky Young [23:20]

• Potential Impact:
  Hundreds of thousands would be affected, potentially losing rights to reside and work, even after years in the country with families and jobs.

  “The existing group of people here, which is like hundreds of thousands on indefinite leave to remain... would instantly get checked to see if they met the new thresholds.” – Adam Fleming [25:44]

• Economic & Social Critique:
  Reform's savings claims (£234 billion) are challenged as methodologically dubious and not recognized even by the report’s authors. Many migrants are also essential workers in health and social care.

  “Be very, very wary of that £234 billion saving figure from Reform.” – Ben Chu [36:32]

• Language Battles:
  The show highlights how Reform are shifting the language debate, using “deportations” for broader removals, just as "lockdown" became ubiquitous during COVID-19.

  “They're successfully kind of rewriting the words that are used in, in the conversation.” – Adam Fleming [41:00]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Symbolic Recognition:

  “What we're seeing here really is the recognition of an idea that such a thing should exist. Such a thing could exist if there were to be peace...”
  – James Landale [05:15]

• On the Hope Factor:

  “It gives hope, hope to that movement... ultimately, that's putting pressure on the United States.”
  – Katrina Perry [07:57]

• Diplomatic Sensitivities:

  “If the British were to rush today to start sticking up large new Signs outside the consulate in East Jerusalem saying, this is now the embassy. That might be seen as slightly aggressive.”
  – James Landale [04:53]

• Global Gathering:

  “This is basically the Olympics of diplomacy. You've got the entire world here all crammed in.”
  – James Landale [14:57]

• On the Migration Policy Shift:

  “...talking about retrospectively taking away the right of people who came here legally and have been told they have a legitimate right to remain in this country.”
  – Vicky Young [27:15]

• On Language Evolution:

  “They've... successfully kind of rewriting the words that are used in, in the conversation.”
  – Adam Fleming [41:00]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [04:04] What does UK recognition of Palestine mean in practice?
• [06:45] Is this recognition substantive or symbolic?
• [07:55] International perspective: Arab countries, EU dynamics, pressure on the US
• [09:35] US diplomatic gatekeeping and implications
• [11:45] Differences between occupation and annexation
• [13:20] Language changes: “Occupied Territories” to “Palestine”
• [14:57] What it feels like inside the UN General Assembly
• [23:20] Reform UK's immigration policy—scrapping “indefinite leave to remain”
• [32:17] The numbers behind ILR, who is affected
• [36:32] Fact-checking Reform UK's fiscal savings claims
• [41:00] The politics of language: “deportation,” shifting narratives

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Tone and Final Thoughts

The episode maintains Newscast’s trademark mix of friendly banter, historical perspective, and sharp policy analysis. The team keeps a conversational, approachable style even with complex subjects, always aware of both symbolic significance and practical realities.

The show wraps with the sense that:

• The UK’s recognition of Palestine, while mostly symbolic for now, sends important signals globally and shifts diplomatic momentum.
• Concrete, legal, and diplomatic outcomes will take considerable time; yet such gestures matter in the symbolic and political sphere.
• On the home front, the immigration debate is intensifying—with language, numbers, and policy proposals all in flux.

Listeners are left ready to discuss these stories knowledgeably—just as the Newscast team intended.

Transcript

[Adam Fleming]

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[Ray Winstone]

Hello, it's Ray Winstone. I'm here to tell you about my podcast on BBC Radio 4, History's Toughest Heroes. I got stories about the pioneers, the rebels, the outcasts who define tough. And that was the first time that anybody ever ran a car up that fast with no tires on. It almost feels like your eyeballs are going to come out of your head. Tough enough for you? Subscribe to History's Toughest Heroes wherever you get your podcast.

[Adam Fleming]

Hello. Hope you had a good weekend listening to Laura and Paddy on the weekend editions of Newscast. On Sunday I went to see the 60th anniversary re release of of the Sound of Music. It looked and sounded amazing and there wasn't a dry eye in the house. But what was fantastic was they kept the intermission that existed in the film in 1965. So just as it was really getting going and getting very emotional, everyone had 20 minutes to go out and dry their eyes in the foyer of the cinema. So I thought, well why not, why don't we, why don't we join in that no, I'm not going to play you or sing the Sound of Music. We going to sneak in a little intermission in the middle of this episode of Newscast just so you can gather your thoughts.

[Katrina Perry]

Newscast Newscast from the BBC Fatboy sliver.

[James Landale]

Me in the classroom doing our violin lessons.

[Adam Fleming]

I was the tattletale in the classroom.

[Ray Winstone]

Can I have an apology please? I trust almost nobody.

[James Landale]

Then daddy has to sometimes use strong language.

[Adam Fleming]

Next time in mosque I feel delulu.

[Vicky Young]

With no salulu Take me down to Downing Street.

[Adam Fleming]

Let's Go have a tour.

[James Landale]

Blimey.

[Adam Fleming]

Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio in New York. This week, all the countries that are members of the United nations will be meeting for the regular General assembly when a whole load of world leaders descend on New York. Although it doesn't look like the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is going this year, one of the big themes is going to be an increasing number of countries recognizing a Palestinian state. The uk, Australia, Canada and Portugal have already done it or are about to do it. And a whole load of other countries are going to be doing it as part of a conference organized alongside the UN by the French President, Emmanuel Macron. So let's find out what that means and how that fits into the whole jigsaw of the UN General assembly this week, because two friends of newscast are there outside the UNHQ in New York. Please welcome Katrina Perry. Hi, Catriona.

[Vicky Young]

Hello.

[Katrina Perry]

How are you?

[Adam Fleming]

Good, thanks. And also there is James Landale. Hi, James.

[James Landale]

Hey, Adam. How you doing?

[Adam Fleming]

Very well, thank you. Now, before we dig into the back and forth that's gonna happen in New York this week, James, we've got a very good and very direct question from newscaster Mark that I'm gonna put to you. And Mark asks, what does it mean in practice for the UK to recognize a Palestinian state? For example, does it mean we will have official diplomatic relations, potential trade agreements, etc. Who would the diplomatic relations actually be with? That is, who do we recognize as the head of a Palestinian state?

[James Landale]

Yeah, all really, really good questions, and there aren't that many good answers to them. Essentially, there will be some technical differences. So, for example, the Palestinian mission in London will, we expect, become a formal embassy. And at the moment, the head of that mission, who's a sort of unofficial representative, he, we expect, will become a full ambassador. But obviously there's a sort of diplomatic process that has to be gone through and various sort of, you know, procedures before that happens. Where there's slight more uncertainty is what happens to the British Consulate General in East Jerusalem, which has been there for years. And I didn't realize this, but apparently it's been there longer than the existence of the state of Israel. And the question, of course, is, does that now become a full embassy? I asked the Foreign Secretary about that last night, and she said, at the moment it's going to stay as it is until what she described a diplomatic process began, protocol process with the Palestinian Authority. Clearly, there is an issue there. If the British were to rush today to start sticking up large new Signs outside the consulate in East Jerusalem saying, this is now the embassy. That might be seen as slightly aggressive. And what the British, I think, would want to avoid is an unnecessary row with the Israeli authorities which involved any kind of UK diplomats being exposed, expelled from various parts of the West Bank. So there's a certain amount of sensitivity with all of that. So, yeah, it's complicated. And there isn't really a capital or a head of state or contiguous boundaries that are internationally recognized. So what we're seeing here really is the recognition of an idea that such a thing should exist. Such a thing could exist if there were to be peace, if it were to be agreed internationally. So we're a long way away from that. And there are huge practical problems because you've got, you know, Gaza is war torn, the west bank is increasingly filled with hundreds of thousands of Israeli settlers. So the idea of having, you know, such a thing as a Palestinian state, many people say it's so difficult, it's almost impossible. But so what's happening here is it's a recognition of an idea and that that idea should continue to exist because there are many Western diplomats say the actions of the Israeli government want to kill even the idea of that.

[Adam Fleming]

And yeah, James, all those logistical and practical and detailed things. Yeah, just, just demonstrate that last point you were making, that to some people this is actually a very symbolic thing. It's sort of a big gesture. To others, it's a, it's a means to an end. As opposed to the end in itself.

[James Landale]

Yeah, I mean, the thing is, over the years, the idea of key Western powers in the G7 and elsewhere recognizing Palestine was just this huge prize that the Palestinians and Arab supporters have been chasing for a long time. And the British and others always said, look, yeah, we'll do it, we want to do it, but it has to be part of a final settlement. That's all gone. We're now in a different place. And it's essentially trying to preserve this idea that I spoke about, that such a thing as a Palestinian state at some stage in the future should exist. And when people, when you talk to British diplomats and they say, look, yeah, we know this is symbolic, we know this is, you know, it's declarations, it's not going to change a great deal on the ground immediately. But they say, look, if you look at the scale and strength of the Israeli response, you know, the scale of anger, the fact that there is sort of, you know, cross party opposition to this in Israel, the British and other would say, look, that that shows this matters. The Israelis are really concerned about it because. Because what it does, it deepens Israel's global isolation. And the Israeli government doesn't like that.

[Adam Fleming]

And Katrina, where you are in New York this week, more countries will be joining in in the recognizing.

[Katrina Perry]

Exactly. And I was just speaking actually to a member of the Saudi Arabian delegation here and to James Point, you know, there's this debate about what doesn't matter in a way, that recognition. But he was saying to me, it gives hope. It gives hope, hope to that movement, that push that more countries are recognizing the plight and the fight. And in doing so, ultimately, that's putting pressure on the United States. I mean, the more times that you have President Trump in a situation, as he was with Sir Keir Starmer last week, being forced to say, I disagree with you on that matter, the more that pressure piles on President Trump. Of course, he did say there is no hope in a way to what he said last week.

[James Landale]

Right.

[Katrina Perry]

Saying, I'm not going to pressurize Israel until all the hostages are freed. So the road may still be long ahead. But what it does do is create that movement. And I suppose particularly in the eu, the more European Union member states who recognize Palestine, the more likely their likelihood there is that the EU as a bloc kind of officially will recognize that we're about talking. Hasn't happened yet, despite so many member states doing it. And then that leads into a greater likelihood of a trade embargo and all of these things that could be or would be viewed as straws on the camel's back that may lead to change, that may lead to that ceasefire that seems so elusive as we're standing here talking right now.

[Adam Fleming]

And I suppose what makes this week so complicated is the logistics of who's where when. So, for example, James, the head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas in, isn't allowed to enter the US And Katrina, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, is not going to be in New York at the same time as Donald Trump.

[Katrina Perry]

He's not. But they are having a meeting at the White House next Monday. I understand. So they will have that kind of face time. But I mean, it just shows you the US Position on this, doesn't it? You know, embracing the Israeli Prime Minister into a meeting in the White House next week, but refusing to give a visa to Mahmoud Abbas and many others of the Palestinian delegation to even come here to have talks with the other world leaders. It just shows the level of control that the US has over this situation.

[James Landale]

Yeah, look, I mean, I've been Here many, many years. And there have been, you know, cases where the Americans have even blocked Iranians, diplomats who are here who were severely ill with cancer, leaving the UN block so that they could go up to a hospital, get some treatment. And so the rules about who can come and when, you know, are very, very circumscribed by, you know, the fact that the Americans are the hosts. There was even some discussion about having today's special conference on the two state solution, Palestinian recognition, in Geneva so that the Americans couldn't veto the presence of the Palestinians. Obviously that hasn't happened because you just got all the world leaders here and instead, instead we're expecting the Palestinian leadership to sort of be beamed in remotely. But yeah, it shows that, you know, the Americans, you know, control the shots. The interesting point with all of this with the Americans, though, is I think the White House will be very, very reluctant for any row over recognition potentially to start sort of poisoning the well with wider ramifications. You know, if, for example, the Israelis retaliate by, as has been discussed, as some Israelis have asked for, or some kind of partial annexation of the west bank, if that led in any way to the breakdown of the so called Abraham Accords, all of those deals between that normalized relations between Israel and various Arab countries that was agreed under Donald Trump's first term. If there was any sense of threats to that, because Don Trump sees that as a core part of his legacy, he will not want to upset that particular apple cart. So I think the Israelis are going to be treading carefully here as to see what they can get, you know, what they can get, agreement with the Americans.

[Adam Fleming]

And James, you just mentioned that phrase, annexing the West Bank. How's that different from occupying the west bank or occupying parts of the west bank as Israel currently does?

[James Landale]

In some respects, technical. In some respects it's substantially different. One is an army enters somebody else's territory and they just occupy it. And then secondly, a country sends in troops in or controls it in some way and then formally annexes that territory and claims it as their own and then gives it a different status. And then, you know, in other words, it's the next phase of that. And it would be seen as incredibly aggressive, effectively you know, making final the impossibility of a proper, genuine two state solution with a proper Palestinian state, if large chunks of that Palestinian state not just occupied by Palestine by Israeli forces, but are actually formally claimed by the Israeli state to be its own contiguous territory. And I think, you know, that's why that's quite tricky.

[Adam Fleming]

Also, James, will we now hear British government ministers talking about Palestine as opposed to in the past where they've talked about Palestinians or Palestinian people in Gaza?

[James Landale]

Whenever I talk to officials about that, they scratch their heads and they're not entirely sure yet. I think they're working this one through. I think the likelihood is that they will because the UK government now considers the west bank and elsewhere to be Palestine. So they will call it Palestine. They still might say it's occupied Palestine, but some of the language will change. Definitely.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, yes, I just saw some screen grabs on social media last night of the moment that the Foreign Office travel advice page changed from the occupied Palestinian territories to say Palestine. So there's an example of the decision trickling down into practical things. Even on.gov.uk. katrina, I've never been to a UN General Assembly. Can you give me a sense of what it's like?

[Katrina Perry]

I personally love it. I'm a nerd for international politics and how the world works and I just love the kind of power nexus that you have here. And everyone's dressed in the traditional dress of the country from where they're from. There's great people watching. The size of the entourage as well is really interesting to watch. Who comes in with just two or three people and who comes in with 20 walking around them? James and I get to meet you can't see, but I've got a box here that I'm standing on too because I'm very short to try and keep the same height. Yeah. So a lot of my day is spent standing on a box. Leveling the playing field. Exactly, yeah. And you just, you know, you get a chance. I mean, there's what goes on in an official capacity in the chambers and, you know, very important speeches are made and so on. But it's all around the edges where the real conversation take place. That's where you want to be the little fly on the wall who's going into a little pull aside room with who. What are they talking about? How long does that meeting last for? And just the kind of interplay that happens away from the cameras. It's fascinating for me in a real.

[James Landale]

Nerdy way, Adam, this is basically the Olympics of diplomacy. You've got the entire world here all crammed in. There's massive security, gridlocked traffic and that democratizes it because it means you've got very, very distinguished world leaders who have to join the same queues and through the security and they're wandering around and they're all, you know, all the. All the muscled security people are wandering around and they're clashing with each other, they're clashing with the New York police force. There's an awful lot of people with an awful lot of guns wandering around this place, and everybody's packed in, and that means you can actually wander in. And so, you know, if you go into the canteen in the United States nations, you know, you can be standing there sort of, you know, with your sandwich and your cup of tea, and you'll be standing next to a world leader, or, I mean, quite often, you know, I see Gordon Brown in there, the former Prime Minister, because he's an education envoy for the United Nations. So he's sometimes in there and there are just people wandering even around this part of Manhattan. You'll go in and get a quick cup of coffee and you'll be sat next to somebody incredibly important. They're just, you know, chatting.

[Ben Chu]

You can.

[Katrina Perry]

Just sat next to you, James?

[James Landale]

Well, no, but it just means you get access. You can get to talk, bump into people and talk. And that's why this madness, and it is madness works.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. My only equivalent was going to the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow, which, of course is a UN conference. And the second you walked in there, it felt very different from any kind of domestic political event or even like an EU summit. Just very. The UN just feels very, very different for all the reasons you just explained.

[James Landale]

Adam, as you will know. Well, for your long experience and expertise in Brussels, it's very different to a fisheries council in Luxembourg.

[Adam Fleming]

Oh, yes. Oh, yes. I'll tell you which one I'd rather be at right now. Katrina, I know you've got to go, so just quickly, before you do, the other big event that was happening in the US in the last 24 hours, or maybe slightly longer than that now, was the funeral for Charlie Kirk, the big Maga influencer, who was shot and killed at an event at university a couple of weeks ago. And if people saw this funeral at the corporate corner of their eyes, they might be confused, thinking that actually they were watching something a bit more like the Super Bowl. It was a huge, big celebratory thing in a stadium.

[Katrina Perry]

Yeah. It was technically a memorial. And I will say that is how Americans kind of commemorate someone who's died, whether they're someone like Charlie Kirk or just, you know, a person who doesn't have 8 million followers. It's very different to how well we do it in Ireland and in the UK as well. There are these big gatherings that. And as Many people as want to will make a speech about the person who's deceased and remember them and tell funny stories. And it can last for hours even for, you know, sort of like in a very commas. Ordinary people. In this case, of course, you had a celebrity Rolodex, really, from the maga world, including the president and the vice president and many, many members of the Cabinet. And they all spoke about Charlie Kirk and their personal memories of him as well. But it also was a bit of a call to arms in a way. His widow, Erica Kirk, described it as a revival and, you know, sort of said that this was. This was Charlie Kirk's legacy, that in passing, he had revived the movement and brought all these extra followers. So she spoke very kind of passionately about that. She also said, which was a very moving part, you know, looking up to heaven as if she were so speaking to her late husband, saying, I forgive the gunman. And, you know, let's all talk and debate together and move on from here. You contrast that to President Trump who said, I know Charlie would be very angry with me, but I hate my opponents and I'm not going to move beyond that. So a real contrast in approaches, especially given the conversation that we've been having here in the last two weeks and actually for months before that, about the incendiary language that's being used in politics and this kind of politically violent rhetoric and how, unfortunately, that is spilling out into real life. So you had the two views of that just within one memorial service.

[Adam Fleming]

Katrina, thank you very much. I'm going to let you go and do some more hobnobbing with diplomats and dignitaries.

[Katrina Perry]

Sandwich queuing, yes.

[Adam Fleming]

Next to VIPs, though, it's not any old sandwich queue. And James, just while Katrina unplugs her earpiece and then goes off and hobnobs for younger newscasters, explain what a Rolodex actually is. And I'm sure you used to have a very good one when you were at the Times.

[James Landale]

Okay. A Rolodex is a system of storing contact numbers and what we used to call addresses, where we used to write each other notes on a piece of paper. And we'd fold that piece of. Of paper in half and we put it in something called an envelope. And that envelope would have something called an address number one, the lunches. And we would then put something called a postage stamp, which we'd buy from a shop.

[Adam Fleming]

Okay, we get the idea. And we'd lick up.

[James Landale]

And the Rolodex basically was where you found your address. But the great thing about it is you could take the card out, write something on it and then pop it on. And it was all alphabetical, so you could sort of scroll through it.

[Adam Fleming]

And Katrina's still there, I hear.

[Katrina Perry]

Well, I am, because this is my live point for my next hit.

[Adam Fleming]

Oh, I see.

[Katrina Perry]

Nina has to go.

[Adam Fleming]

It's James and I have to go. Okay, fine.

[Katrina Perry]

James and I will go get a sharp elbow.

[Adam Fleming]

Don't worry. James and I will go and update our Rolodexes. So thank you very much to you two.

[James Landale]

Thanks.

[Katrina Perry]

Talk soon.

[Adam Fleming]

And now, as promised, Inspired by the 60th anniversary re release of the Sound of Music in cinemas, the here's a brief intermission. I hope you enjoyed that very brief intermission so you could gather your thoughts. Maybe we should do that on every episode of Newscast. Let's take that one away and think about it. Now, the other big news story in UK domestic politics today was Reform Reform UK unveiling their new policy for the bit of the immigration system called indefinite leave to remain. This is this immigration status which is just short of British citizenship that a person can get if they've come to the UK and stayed here for five years. It's becoming a bit of a political hot potato because some of the other political parties are talking about how they would tweak eligibility for it. But today, Nigel Farage went the whole hog and he said he would remove it from the immigration system altogether. This is a decision that would affect hundreds of thousands of people currently in the uk and Reform UK say it would apply to people here who are here now with that status now, not just people who come in future and try to obtain it. So I've been discussing that story with Vicky Young, fresh off the first edition of the newly revamped Politics Live on BBC two this lunchtime.

[Vicky Young]

Hello.

[Adam Fleming]

How was the first of the new Politics Live?

[Vicky Young]

It was very exciting, very different vibe and, you know, not just the set, we've got a sofa, but we don't want them to be too comfortable. So we, you know, we still, we still ask some difficult questions and then a bit more like, you know, getting the views from viewers as well. So that's quite good because then you can get a comment from someone and put that to the politicians. So, you know, it's a direct way for people to, to challenge the politicians that we have in front of us.

[Adam Fleming]

And not to be superficial as he then says something quite superficial. I do love your US late night talk show host style desk.

[Vicky Young]

I love the desk. I know. I feel Like, I'm in a very good position there.

[Adam Fleming]

It's funny you say it, because I always just think, whenever I filled in for Joko on Politics Live, the old version of it, when you're in the middle with two politicians either side, you turn your head to see the argument that's happening to your right, which means you can't see the reactions of the people to your left, but people at home can see.

[Vicky Young]

That's true. That was strange. It was a massive table as well, so.

[Adam Fleming]

Which I quite liked. I quite liked a big table.

[Vicky Young]

The studio feels. It actually feels bigger. And then it's all robotic cameras. So obviously the strange thing with that is, you know, they stop moving on their own, which is all a bit strange.

[Adam Fleming]

Hopefully not robotic politicians.

[Vicky Young]

No, definitely not. No, we don't have them. Don't have them on our program.

[Adam Fleming]

Right, let's get down to a real issue of substance, then. So indefinite leave to remain and reform's plan to reform the whole thing, which is a massive category of. Of immigration in the uk.

[Vicky Young]

Yeah, that's right. Because at the moment you can have temporary leave to remain here, then you have indefinite leave to remain, which then can lead to citizenship if you want it to. And what they've decided to do is to basically scrap it, scrap it all together. And then the particularly controversial part of this, which of course, a lot of their opponents are seizing on, is the fact that it would apply to those already here. It is. It is retrospective in many ways. So there will be people in this country who have been here, you know, for a long time. They might have children, they might have been working here for a long time, but actually they are also going to have to reapply. And you might be able to stay, but there will be different challenges around that. There will be different criteria, there will be tougher rules in terms of English language, in terms of your salary, and so you will have to reapply, I think, every five years. So that really changes the fundamental system that we currently have. It would be a huge shakeup. And of course, political opponents are saying that it's not workable. But, you know, reform, absolutely saying and acknowledging that it's a big, big change. But they said this was needed.

[Adam Fleming]

An indefinite leave to remain is basically. It's the status you get after you've been in the UK for five years. No matter which kind of immigration route you took care, if you've been here for five years, you then basically get this status. And, okay, it's not British citizenship, but it does give you access to the benefit system, the NHS working, studying, pretty much everything you get from being a British citizen.

[Vicky Young]

Yeah. I think the one thing with citizenship is you can vote. Is that right? I think that might be one of the differences, but yeah, so it's. This is not about the people who've come here with, you know, under the EU status. So it is the non EU who've come here under that. Now, there are plans already being brought in by the government to actually change the indefinite leave to remain that you have to be here for five years. You can apply for that. They're already talking about changing that to 10 years. So there's already, you know, the other parties moving along that route, but this is a completely different kind of category. This is saying, no, we're not going to. You're not going to have that anymore. It's going to go completely.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. So basically, the existing group of people here, which is like hundreds of thousands on indefinite leave to remain with sort of under a reform government, instantly get checked to see if they met the new thresholds to. To be here. So higher salaries, higher qualifications, not having used the benefit system. So you could have quite a lot of people who are here with indefinite leaves remain now being told to go.

[Vicky Young]

Yeah.

[Adam Fleming]

And then the people that did have this new status would have to reapply every five years. And so, of course, if they didn't meet those criteria, they would also then be told to go.

[Vicky Young]

Yeah. And so, of course, the questions then, which unfold from that are, if you've got people who have been here for a very long time and they have themselves had children who are British and have only ever lived here, you know, what. What happens to them? You know what. What are we saying about that now? On the program, we had the chairman of. Of Reform, David Bull, and Dr. David Bull. Doctor, sorry, Dr. David Bull. And, you know, I said to him, well, you know, it. This is the thing. It's. It's talking about retrospectively taking away the right of people who came here legally and have been told they have a legitimate right to remain in this country. You know, a lot of them would have passed the Life in UK test, they would have passed a language test, they'll have paid potentially £5,000 in fees, maybe a lot more, and, you know, had previously been told that they've got permanent status, and now they're unraveling that now. It was interesting because he wanted to concentrate more on those who came here and his term under the Boris wave. So that was the other really striking thing today on the program is that every opportunity Reform UK want to use the term Boris wave. And they are Talking about the 3.8 million people, people who came here following Brexit when Boris Johnson was Prime Minister under a new point system. And so there's the point they're making is that those people have almost been here for five years. So under the current system they would be able to start applying for indefinite leave to remain. So they're saying that will be a huge number of people. Now, of course, you don't know how many would apply. Some will have left already. You know, it's very complicated, isn't it? But he wants to concentrate on that. Whereas actually, yes, as you point out, the really, actually controversial bit is that these are people who have potentially been here for a long time.

[Adam Fleming]

Right. So that's how Dr. David Bull was talking about it on Vicky's program. Let's hear how Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK was talking about it at his regular Monday news conference.

[Ray Winstone]

The anticipated cost of the 800,000 plus who will qualify for indefinite leave to.

[Adam Fleming]

Remain over the course of the next.

[Ray Winstone]

Three to four years. The anticipated cost of this group of people is a staggering £230 billion. It is absolutely an eye watering sum of money.

[James Landale]

We will not only say that these.

[Ray Winstone]

People do not qualify for indefinite leave to remain, we will abolish indefinite leave to remain as a category in this country.

[Adam Fleming]

And then Vicki, what do Reform types say about the fact. Well, actually quite a lot of the people that came in, in what they call the Boris wave were here on for example, the, and social care visa because there were lots of vacancies that needed filled in health and social care. And so actually there's lots of bits of the economy or public services that rely on people who either come here on a, on a visa or are here because they've got indefinite leave to remain.

[Vicky Young]

Yes. So again, they, they obviously that's one of the first things that, that a Reform UK politician is always asked about this because there are huge numbers who are, some would say, propping up a lot of our services. Now they say that they do recognize that they do, they are going to have some other kind of visas for people now. They call some of them investor routes, they call them acute skills shortage visas. Now we've heard this before, haven't we, about the skills shortage visas. But they are also saying, look, you've got to encourage British people here to get back to work if they're not in work. And they're saying that if companies hire a person from abroad. They have to train someone at home. So that's their argument. They're saying there are plenty of people who are here who can do that work and effectively, they've got to be made to do it. And that's. That's how they think that that gap can be filled.

[Adam Fleming]

And Reform reckon they can save £234 billion from, well, the public finances in general, which is being massively disputed by Labor. Here is the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

[Vicky Young]

The numbers that reform have come out with overnight have already begun to disassemble. And I want to bring down illegal migration. This government is bringing down migration. We have sent a record number of people who've got no right to be in our country home. We're reducing the use of hotels for asylum seekers and we've made an agreement with France to send people back who come over on small boats. Those are all steps towards our ambitions to get a grip of this situation that we inherited.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. So the savings that Reform are touting do actually look a little bit shaky.

[Vicky Young]

Yeah, Well, I mean, Nigel Farah says he thinks actually that that figure's too low and he thinks it actually would be higher now. I think the problem they have is that the numbers are partly based on a Centre for Policy Studies numbers and work that they've done, and they have since changed those a bit and said actually that their figures should no longer be used because their figures were challenged by the Office for Budget Responsibility. So I think that is the problem that they have. You know, they are accused at quite a lot, aren't they, Reform UK of, of having numbers that don't add up. But, you know, Nigel Farage, you know, as ever, with his style, and he said, no, actually, I think it could be a lot more than that. And he claims that there's a lot of holes in the data around this, around people who are on indefinite leave to remain here or have been here and about to apply. He says there aren't that many figures or accurate figures about exactly what benefits they will be claiming. Although, you know, he says a lot of them are claiming benefits.

[Adam Fleming]

Right, let's drill into some of the numbers in a bit more detail because I've been doing that with Ben Chu from BBC Verify, And Ben Chu is here. Hello, Ben.

[Ben Chu]

Hello, Adam.

[Adam Fleming]

Right, first of all, indefinite leave to remain ilr. How many indefinitely leaving, remaining people are there?

[Ben Chu]

Well, look, I think there's no doubt that this reform policy would affect a lot of people. The exact numbers are a bit uncertain, but it's definitely a lot of people so if you just look at the number of people who applied for and got indefinite leave for remain in the most recent year, so that's the year to June, it was about 163,000 people, that's non EU citizens were granted this. So that's the kind of the ballpark figure, the context you're talking about, of the number of people getting it every year. And that has been rising since 2017, although it was actually higher back in 2010, 2011. But of course, we've had a large wave of migration in recent years. So there's a lot of people in the country who might be expected to go on to claim indefinite leave to remain. So the Migration Observatory think tank estimates There are about 2.1 million people who are currently in the country on temporary visas who have what they call a pathway to settlement. So we don't know if they would apply or they would have applied, but they could potentially go on from the visas they're on under the current system to claim indefinite leave for remain.

[Adam Fleming]

And, yes, that's the tricky thing about working out what's going to happen in the future, because you can't know the intentions of every single person, because people. Because people don't. There's a sort of idea that people come to Britain and then stay forever, but actually lots of people do leave again.

[Ben Chu]

Yeah. And we should also talk about the people who've been granted it, because don't forget, Reform are talking about taking it away from people who've been granted it.

[Adam Fleming]

Basically what statisticians would call the stock.

[Ben Chu]

Yes, the stock group. What is the stock now? You know, in terms of. There's a lot of people who got indefinite leave to remain who were from the EU after Brexit. It's about 4 million people in that category. Now, Reform have clarified today at the press conference that they were, were not, would not be, have their leave taken away so we can take the EU contingency.

[Adam Fleming]

Well, and also this takes me back to Brexit, because I watched the development of that with in minute detail at the time, and yeah, they created this new thing called settled status, but actually it was only called settled status. It was actually indefinite leave to remain with that, wasn't it?

[Ben Chu]

Yeah. So I think it's a really important clarification. There's probably a lot of people who are very concerned seeing those headlines and understanding that they have indefinite leave to remain, but Reform said today they wouldn't be affected. But there are people who are non EU who have been granted that status. And again, the Oxford Migration Immigration Observatory estimates at the end of last year, 2024, there were about 430, 000 people with that status who, if reform came in and implemented this, could potentially see that status taken away and forced to go into this new system. So, look, it's certainly in the hundreds of thousands of people who would definitely be affected if reform came in.

[Adam Fleming]

And I suppose beyond the individual numbers, it's that hundreds of thousands thing to kind of keep in your head when you're thinking about this.

[Ben Chu]

Yes. I don't think we should be too exact about this because as you've mentioned, we just don't know what people would and done in future. But it's a large policy affecting a lot of people. And speaking of large numbers, we should probably talk about savings.

[Adam Fleming]

Perfect segue.

[Ben Chu]

Yes.

[Adam Fleming]

So Nigel Farage claims this will save the public finances in a very kind of broad sense, £234 billion. What are these savings he thinks he's talking about there?

[Ben Chu]

Well, he's arguing, based on a think tank report which was the center for Policy Studies, who did some number crunching and some estimates around it, looking at how much the people who would get indefinite leave to remain would end up costing the state over their lifetime. So not just any given year, but over their whole lifetimes. And they estimated that there would be a big net fiscal cost of all these people if they went on to claim indefinite leave to remain. And that's where that figure comes from. But very important to point out that the center for Policy Studies have, since we've drawn that figure, they said that's, you know, we'll put a new figure out, but we're not standing by. But Reform have taken it. Look, speaking to labor market experts who are looking at how that estimate was arrived at and the actual numbers of what recent migrants to the UK are earning and could reasonably be expected to continue earning over their lifetimes, they don't think it's a credible figure that you'd get all those net fiscal costs going away. In fact, you may even have a. It's not a saving to the taxpayer, it's a cost to the taxpayer of this policy. These are very uncertain numbers. We can't be sure, but be very, very wary of that £234 billion saving figure from reform.

[Adam Fleming]

Ben, thank you.

[Ben Chu]

Thank you, Adam.

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[Ray Winstone]

Hello, it's Ray Winstone. I'm here to tell you about my podcast on BBC Radio 4 histories, Toughest Heroes. I got stories about the pioneers, the rebels, the outcasts who define tough. And that was the first time that anybody ever ran a car up that fast with no tires on. It almost feels like your eyeballs are going to come out of your head. Tough enough for you? Subscribe to History's Toughest Heroes wherever you get your podcast.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah, so that was Ben Chu's take on the numbers with his giant spreadsheet, which he loves to put on big screens on BBCVerify every day. Yeah, Vicky, just some closing thoughts from you then, having had a good 45 minutes chewing over this story with lots of politicians today on New York Politics Live.

[Vicky Young]

Yeah, the interesting thing was that the other political opponents of Reform UK on the panel though, they were saying, look, it's probably unworkable. So the Labour politicians saying it's unworkable and yes, I'm against it, and the Conservatives as well saying yes, it probably won't work. You know, they weren't as maybe full throated in opposition as I was expecting them to be because they don't want to be sitting there, it seems to me, you know, talking about that the levels of legal, legal migration, because that's what we're talking about here. They don't want to be saying that those levels are okay. I mean, James Cleverly who's on the panel said he brought in loads of changes which really brought down the numbers of legal migration, which is true. And Labour have kept a lot of those changes. But it was interesting because then, because the Liberal Democrat conference is going on, we did have the Lib Dem MP join us and they were being much more vociferous about it in opposition, saying a lot of these people you're talking about effectively throwing out the country are our friends, our neighbors who have made a life here and have been here for a long time and they have been contributing and you're trying to deport them. That's the word that reform UK use when actually they've done nothing wrong.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. And I was just going to echo two of those things in my final thoughts, having now thought about this story for a few hours now, and it's very similar to what you're just saying there. Number one, focus, this is now moving focus onto legal migration. So people who've come here for work or study or because they've got other family members here and they've come under the existing system. And actually all this last few months and last few years, the focus on small boats arrivals has been on what some people call irregular migration or some people call illegal migration. This is the other type which is actually much, much, much, much bigger and also is under much more control of the government because the government decides what visas to issue and what the immigration rules are. So Reform UK are successfully moving the kind of the spotlight onto that now and it's quite an amorphous thing. And the second thing I was going to say was about that D word, deportation. So every time I say deportation on air, well, not every time, but a fair few, few times, we all then get an email from Dominic Cashiani going, guys, deportation, yeah. Is for foreign criminals who are being deported back to the country so they can be imprisoned there. When it comes to immigration cases. Yeah. As you said, it's removals, but reform call that deportations as well. And it's now creeping into everyone's language that every kind of removal or taking somebody out the country is a deportation. So they've, they're successfully kind of rewriting the words that are used in, in the conversation. And it reminds me back at the very start of COVID where I always pushed against the word lockdown, and the government did a bit as well because they thought it sounded too scary. And it's because actually there was lots of different options of what a lockdown could be. And so I thought, well, it's better to just talk about the restrictions that exist. But I lost that battle and lockdown became the word. And that's another example of where our, our language got rewritten because there's just momentum behind a word.

[Katrina Perry]

Yeah.

[Vicky Young]

And you're right, it's interesting whether, again, it's. Whether conservatives and the government, whether they talk in those terms, whether they are careful with their language.

[Adam Fleming]

Yeah. And again, illegal migration or irregular migration. Yeah, yeah. Right, Vicki, thank you very much and congratulations again on a successful first new Politics Live, although not the first ever politics. You've done loads, treating you like the new, the new girl you did it for.

[Vicky Young]

Oh, I've been around a long time.

[Adam Fleming]

And that's all for this episode of Newscast. And that's all for the newscast Census, your opportunity to tell us how you listen to the podcast, what you like. What would you like to hear less of? Hopefully not me because you're stuck with me. Unfortunately, the census is now closed. But fortunately we have had thousands and thousands of responses from you, which will help us to make an even better newscast in future. So thank you very much for your contribution and thank you very much for listening today. And we'll be back with another newscast very soon. Bye bye.

[Katrina Perry]

Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.

[James Landale]

Well, thank you for making it to the end of another newscast. You clearly ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe.

[Adam Fleming]

To us on BBC Sounds?

[James Landale]

And then without having to do anything else, our meandering chat will miraculously make its way to your phone. Foreign.

[Ray Winstone]

I'm here to tell you about my podcast on BBC Radio 4, History's Toughest Heroes. I got stories about the pioneers, the rebels, the outcasts who define tough. And that was the first time that anybody ever ran a car up that fast with no, no tires on. It almost feels like your eyeballs are going to come out of your head. Tough enough for you? Subscribe to History's Toughest Heroes Wherever you get your podcast.