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- [00:00]
Adam Fleming
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK.
- [00:06]
Steve Rosenberg
I'm Steve Rosenberg, the BBC's Russia editor in Our man in Moscow. I'll show you what it's like being a news correspondent in Russia as the Russian authorities wage war on Ukraine and try to silence dissent.
- [00:18]
Katrina Perry
The sound of war has reverberated around
- [00:20]
Lise Doucet
Ukraine for three years.
- [00:22]
Steve Rosenberg
Dramatic geopolitical upheaval alongside threats of intimidation and imprisonment. Our man in Moscow. Watch with a subscription to BBC.com and the BBC app. Visit BBC.com docs to learn more.
- [00:38]
Adam Fleming
Hello. So do you remember a few months ago when the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth in the usa renamed his job to be the Secretary of War? Well, now he's got a war. As the US and Israel continue to attack Iran in a really quite big way. And today we heard from Pete Hegseth as he gave the world an update. My generation of veterans carry the names of brothers who never came home. Brothers butchered by Iranian backed roadside bombs and well armed militias, thousands of our own. We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. Yes. So we will tell you more about what the Americans have been saying about they're trying to achieve in this military action. We'll also tell you a lot more about how Iran has been launching counterattacks against its neighbors and also a big change in the UK's position in this conflict. That's all coming up on this episode of Newscast. And we're going to be pumping out episodes throughout the week on this enormous story for the world. And if you never want to miss one, then click on subscribe and whenever they're recorded, they will be then up there on your device ready for you to listen with all the best analysis we could muster at the BBC. So here is the latest episode of
- [01:54]
Katrina Perry
Newscast, Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.
- [01:57]
Adam Fleming
Fat Boy Slim and me in the classroom doing our violin lessons. I was the tattletale in the class.
- [02:01]
Steve Rosenberg
Can I have an apology, please?
- [02:03]
Lise Doucet
I trust almost nobody.
- [02:04]
Adam Fleming
Then daddy has to sometimes use strong language.
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Jane Corbyn
Next time in Moscow, I feel delulu with no salulu. Take me down to Downing Street.
- [02:12]
Adam Fleming
Let's go have a tour. Blimey. Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio and all this week we're going to be joined by a friend of the podcast from Panorama, it's Jane Corbyn. Hello again, Jane.
- [02:21]
Jane Corbyn
Hello.
- [02:22]
Adam Fleming
And to welcome and lease Doucet is here. Hello, Lease.
- [02:24]
Lise Doucet
Good to join you, Adam. And good to see you again, Jane.
- [02:26]
Jane Corbyn
And you.
- [02:26]
Adam Fleming
L. Now, before we do the analysis, which I know from you two will be excellent. Just a little sort of slice of life in covering this war. Jane, just before we started recording, your phone started blaring. Just explain what that was.
- [02:38]
Jane Corbyn
That is the Israeli rocket siren device. That tells you that rockets are incoming and it's been going off non stop, obviously since, since Saturday. And yeah, it goes off all the time. Normally I have it on silent, but for some reason it broke through even though I put it on silent. And it tells you where, where they're coming, how many are coming, you know, roughly which area. And it's, it's extraordinary in terms of the numbers and that that's obviously referring both to rockets and missiles, but also to drones, which they call hostile aircraft on the, on the app.
- [03:09]
Adam Fleming
And is that just on your phone from previous trips there, or do you have it as a sort of journalistic tool?
- [03:14]
Jane Corbyn
Both. Sometimes when it's really too much and especially at night, you know, obviously take it off. But, you know, there has been a huge amount going on in Israel and it's important to know and it's important to attempt to, you know, keep tabs on it, really.
- [03:26]
Lise Doucet
That brings the, the, the BBC slogan of live the story to a whole new level.
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Adam Fleming
Yeah.
- [03:31]
Lise Doucet
Wow.
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Jane Corbyn
Keep yours on.
- [03:32]
Lise Doucet
No, I did when I came lasting, but then I, I, I, I took it off. But, but, but it is amazing because you'll be reminded, especially when it's a big one. Yeah.
- [03:38]
Adam Fleming
And also at least talk about living the story. I think this is the first time I've seen you face to face since you were actually in Iran. How does, how does that work in your brain covering this military action now, but thinking back to just being there on the ground so recently?
- [03:53]
Lise Doucet
Well, on a personal level, then, you know, some of the people that I met there work there. They're on my mind immediately. I'm saying, you know, whatever, but whatever you report about this, this is individuals that you know and journalists that I know. So just how are you, Are you, are you safe? And did you get a message on your, on your mobile about the Revolutionary Guards warning you not to go into the streets? And so it's, it's much more vivid in your mind. So I, and I still have a much better understanding, I think, of the mood in Iran, very much a country at the crossroads, because of course, and we're seeing this in the reaction to the Supreme Leader's death. There are those who revere him as a religious leader. They've been in the streets with these outpourings of emotion. But there are also many who revile him. And they've been taking to the streets mostly in the dead of night where they feel they're safer to celebrate. And there's been celebrations here in London as well in the Iranian communities.
- [04:49]
Adam Fleming
And we can talk a bit more about that in a second. But Jane, this is a sort of moment where you want to have a big atlas open in front of you so you can sort of point to all of Iran's neighbors. Because the big theme of the last 36, 48 hours has been Iran's counterattacks and striking their neighbors.
- [05:04]
Jane Corbyn
Yeah. And everybody said before that this risked a regional war. And it's amazing how quickly we got there. They've hit, I think, eight different countries and obviously Cyprus as well. British base in, in Cyprus. So all of those, all of countries, all of those leaders are drawn in willy nilly. And they're pretty angry about it. They're pretty outraged that they, who took no part in the strikes which were carried out by Israel and by America, nevertheless got back in kind very quickly. And I think Bahrain was hit very badly to begin with. You've obviously seen what's happened in Dubai where a lot of British people live and go on holiday, and right across the region in Iraq, in Erbil, in Saudi even. All of those countries have been hit by Iranian missiles.
- [05:52]
Adam Fleming
And it's so interesting on social media you can see videos that are clearly AI generated of gleaming skyscrapers in those places on fire, obviously fake. But then the next thing you see is a video of one that is real, these places actually being hit.
- [06:06]
Lise Doucet
Genuinely, this is a moment not just for Iran, but for the entire region before and after moment. Iran has now changed forever. So has the region, including countries, particularly the wealthy Gulf monarchies who have. But their whole model, politically, economically, security is based on being the perception that they are a safe haven. They're a safe harbor from the kind of tensions and turmoil which have wracked the rest of the Middle East. Come and spend your dollars here, invest here. Come and be a tourist. Now you can imagine, I would imagine. And when this is all over, you'll see big billboards in the underground, people saying, come back, come back. And you know, once you, once your image is shattered, it will take time, it will come back in time. But what has also been shatter is the diplomacy and the new relationships that Iran had built up with Arab leaders. And they had been at daggers drawn for decades. But in recent years, Arab leaders realizing that regional issues need regional solutions. And the Saudis and the Emiratis and Qataris, well, Qatar and Oman have always had relations with Iranian leadership, but whenever there was a crisis, the Foreign Minister of Iran, Abbas, Iraqi, could pick up the telephone and call all of these Arab capitals. And those leaders had been working around the clock, either on the telephone, President Trump, or racing to Washington to say, don't embark on another destructive war. The consequences will be huge. And now those same leaders are turning their fire against Tehran and saying, why are you hitting us? So much is literally burning in this
- [07:44]
Jane Corbyn
moment, and it's literally burning for those countries which are the source of great energy for all of us. So a gas plant's been hit in Qatar. Oil refining has been hit in Saudi. And that's an incredible shock to the system, to them, but also to all of us, because the Straits of Hormuz, that very strategic waterway through which vast quantities of both gas and oil flow is effectively closed. And I think the shock that's being felt in those countries which are producing that energy, that this could have happened, that Iran could have done this, is really unprecedented.
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Adam Fleming
Although it's interesting reading about all the workarounds these countries are using to try and get their oil and gas out by other means. So maybe actually the shock to the oil price might not be as dramatic as it might initially appear.
- [08:28]
Jane Corbyn
No, and I think the shock to the gas price has actually been bigger than the shock to the oil price, and there will be a way around it. And I believe that today some ships did pass through the Straits of Hormuz, Chinese, for example. And so maybe the shock will. They will, as you say, there'll be a workaround, and some will feel it's worth the risk of moving through.
- [08:45]
Lise Doucet
But tanker insurance, no one's going to be able to get insurance, and no one's going to want to take the risk when you're carrying such precious cargo. And of course, the big issue is for a few days perhaps, that people can get through this. But what about if it goes. What if it goes on and on? This is really a measure of this phrase that we use in covering conflicts of this kind. Jane has, of course, covered many asymmetric warfare. How do you take on the might of the most powerful army in the world, the United States, and the assets of Israel, including its staggering intelligence gathering capabilities? And Iran had warned, as Jane mentioned, I was really taken when. And when I interviewed the Deputy Foreign Minister, Magid Thaktaravanshi, and I said, if there is. If a war is unleashed, will you regard it as existential? And he said, yes, well, if we do regard it as existential, it would be a different kind of war. And then I pressed him, well, what would happen? What would be so bad? And he said, I don't want to get into what an existential war would look like for us because it would be a very bad situation, not just for us, but for the entire region. And there, I mean, when you have the attack, the first wave of attacks early on Saturday morning, and you know, they acted on intelligence and they were able to kill not just the supreme leader, the very top cleric ayatollah, but the top four security chiefs and possibly more as well.
- [10:13]
Jane Corbyn
President Trump is claiming they've killed 48 leaders, military and all through those different ranks that we've seen. And I think, you know, he's right. It is an ex, it was, it is an existential threat to, to Iran when you're hitting it at that level and killing so many people at once.
- [10:30]
Adam Fleming
But from looking at the coverage around the region, okay, it's scary for those countries. It feels like an act of aggression. But actually, most of the missiles, most of the drones aren't getting through. So I'm just wondering, has Iran thrown everything they've got at its neighbors and actually the threat is going to recede from now on or, I mean, it's speculation, I realize.
- [10:51]
Jane Corbyn
Well, Israel has said today that it claiming that it's hit underground facilities where ballistic missiles and missiles are being, are being built. We don't know. But the general consensus seems to be this will go on for as long as there's ammunition on both sides to throw at each other. And Iran has, we know, large stocks and of course of the shahed drone, which has been a game changer in Ukraine and is proving to be so here and that and huge waves of these drones are being used already and they have enormous industrial facilities, as I understand, underground to produce these shahed drones. So we can only suppose that that is going to carry on for sometimes days, if not weeks.
- [11:30]
Lise Doucet
It's always. This is interesting that you mentioned, you pointed out a very point and this is both the strength and the weakness, not just of journalism, but of course, eyewitnesses, is that if you look on the Internet, you'll think Dubai is on fire because the fire at the Palm, I've seen messages put on social media, people saying what do you, why are you guys talking about this instability, the fires in Dubai, the rest of the, you know, the, the city is, is fine, etc. But in our very much our social media world, people just see the images which dominate and they do think about apparently one of the Big searches. You know, one of the big questions people are asking on Google, is it safe to go to D and Dubai, The Emirates don't want that question to be asked.
- [12:09]
Adam Fleming
Well, also you can see a big divide between people who are there maybe on holiday or on honeymoon or visiting, who want to get out as soon as possible, and people who've made it their home saying, actually more relaxed about it. Right. We're recording this episode of newscast. It just gone 20 past 5 on Monday afternoon. Just before we sat down, we heard some remarks from Donald Trump at the White House. And watching them was Katrina Perry. Hello, Katrina.
- [12:30]
Katrina Perry
Hi, Adam. How are you? Forgive the merry poppy moment. I'm here with an umbrella because it's just started snowing outside the White House right now, this moment.
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Adam Fleming
Always extreme weather in D.C. so this was meant to be a ceremony that was rewarding kind of military bravery. So veterans. But inevitably it became the first chance to hear from Donald Trump about what he actually wants to achieve here.
- [12:51]
Katrina Perry
Indeed, it is still a Medal of Honor ceremony. And as I'm speaking to now, the president is awarding those Medals of Honor. They're being awarded posthumously. So, so it's the sons mostly so far of deceased veterans who are being awarded those medals. But this was the first time that President Trump has appeared in public since giving the authorization for those strikes on Iran, which started in the early hours of Saturday morning as it was here in the East coast, just 1:15am so we hadn't seen him in public. We hadn't had an opportunity to have him sort of answer questions live as we're recording. I'll point out he still hasn't done that because the layout of where this is happening in the East Room, the reporters and the correspondents are quite a distance back from the president. And it is quite a sort of solemn gathering. So I do expect that my colleagues will try and shout questions at the president, but I think it's probably unlikely that he can even hear them and choose to answer them. But he did address that situation in Iran, which is what so many people were looking for him to do, because there's a sense here that he hasn't really explained the justification sufficiently for the significant level of danger that he has committed the members of the US Military to at this point. So he said he wanted to give an update on Operation Epic Fury, as they're calling it. He said it was very much still ongoing, this large scale combat operation in Iran. And he gave sort of the rationale for that. He said Iran was refusing warnings from the US in the wake of Operation Midnight Hammer last June to cease its nuclear weapons capability. Now, he did also suggest that, as he saw it, there was an imminent threat that Iran would have nuclear weapons capable of being launched from Iran and striking the U.S. he said he felt that would happen soon. Now, he should say that his own intelligence agency has previously put out information to say that position is many, many years away. But nevertheless, this is what President Trump is saying is part of his rationale for explaining this. He said that he was trying to reach a deal through negotiations with them, but he felt that Iran just wasn't interested. He said he thought a deal was agreed and then they stepped back from it. He thought another deal was agreed, and they stepped back from it again. So he felt. Felt he was left with one option only, and that was this campaign of military action. And he said he wanted to lay out the objectives that he had. And this was the part, I think, where he's very much trying to speak to a domestic US Audience who are looking for, what are those objectives? He said they want to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities. He wants to annihilate Iran's navy. He said they'd already sank 10 ships. Ships. He said he wanted to ensure that Iran would never have a nuclear weapon. And he said he also wanted to ensure that the Iranian regime could not continue to arm and fund, as he put it, its terrorist armies beyond their borders, referring to the proxies there that you've been discussing. And again, he said, we had a deal, and they backed out. And he realized, I just can't have a deal with these people. So. So that's kind of how he explained it, that he didn't want there to be a threat to the American people. Will that be enough to satisfy those who don't support what he has launched the US and the US Military into? Well, we'll have to wait and see.
- [16:23]
Adam Fleming
And, Jane, when we were watching this on the TV outside the studio, one of the things you jumped on straight away was this very elastic timeline.
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Jane Corbyn
Yeah. He said, I've always said from the start, it'll be four to five weeks. And then he said, but we're ahead of schedule, which. Which presumes that it could be as long as four to five weeks, but if I've decided it's going well, we might make it shorter than that. And I thought that was interesting because that gives some flexibility, but it doesn't leave anybody any the wiser as to how long this is going to last.
- [16:52]
Adam Fleming
And least in terms of the war aims if we could call them as, as grandly as that. It was four things, wasn't it? It was taking out Iran's ballistic missile system, it was taking out the nuclear weapons program, it was taking out the navy, and it was stopping Iran's proxies, its allies, causing chaos. What did you make of the big four?
- [17:11]
Lise Doucet
It's interesting if Katrina is still with us, I thought that Peter Hegseth, the secretary of Defense, or as he would call himself, the secretary of war, when he gave his remarks earlier today, he said this is not about regime change, but we have changed the regime. What did you make of that, Katrina?
- [17:29]
Katrina Perry
Yeah, I thought that was a really key line, Lise. I'd agree with you there. And he said this is not a so called regime change war, again using that word war, which is, is quite controversial here in the US And I suppose this gets to the crux of the issue of what is President Trump's grand aim here, notwithstanding that he laid out those four objectives, but he has repeatedly called for the Iranian people to take back their country. But yet they don't want regime change. They're more laying the conditions for regime change, it would seem. And this is the problem of trying to find out what is the end goal here. And I don't think we're any clearer on that from what the president said or indeed what Secretary Hegseth and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said earlier on today. And again, a very, very fluid timeline. Secretary Hegseth saying earlier it could be two weeks, it could be four weeks, it could be six weeks. It could be basically whatever the president decides it could be.
- [18:28]
Jane Corbyn
And I think that they've had Katrina, am I right? They've had advice from within, from within the security establishment that this isn't easy, that it is not going to necessarily result in a changed regime. It is not going to result in the conditions for the people to rise up and take over as they've been urged to by President Trump. And I think they're getting that message or they have done right from within, from the CIA and from others who obviously are well informed. But still the decision was made to carry on, although they, and to go for this, although there was no sure far way out of this, even from their own advisors.
- [19:05]
Lise Doucet
And you just again, President Trump, who we now know in this second term how he can change his mind from one day to the next. I was reading some of, some of you may also have seen it. He had a six minute interview with the New York Times and in that six minute he went from regime change to talking to the government to saying that what happened in Venezuela where military action just took out Nicolas Maduro, the president, he described that for Iran as the perfect scenario. So what are we to make of that? What is it? Is it what he said in his eight minute speech? Is it what he said today, not mentioning regime change? Is he still musing about what the war aim is, which must be Katrina? So distressing for people where you are, especially for lawmakers who feel they should have given him authorization to embark on a war.
- [19:56]
Katrina Perry
Exactly. I mean, there are two legal issues here. There's the domestic legal issue and then there's the question of international law, how you act preemptively in self defense, which isn't a concept that exists in international law. But here, domestically, Republicans and Democrats generally unified in their approach or their view that, you know, Iran is a threat on some level to the US Imminent or otherwise, and that, you know, some sort of action is justified. But the point of debate is that the president has done this unilaterally. It's very clear in the US Constitution that the only people who can issue a declaration of war are the members of Congress. And it has to be passed through there. It isn't for a president to do. Now, President Trump isn't the only president who has tried to sort of go around Congress in this and take unilateral action in this way. But it is causing a lot of tension here. Members of Congress do like to be consulted. Now, we know the Secretary of State Marco Rubio did speak to the Gang of Eight in advance of these strikes, or at least seven of the eight, that being the top leadership within both parties on Capitol Hill. But when you listen to what Secretary Dan Kane or Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kaine said today, he said they were 30 days kind of ready for this operation. So this has been something in the mix for a long time. And speaking to members within the military who know about these things, say the preparation would have actually been months for a mission like this, which as of now is airstrikes being launched from aircraft and also some missiles being launched from Navy ships as well. The president talking, the secretary talking earlier about being engaged with the Iranian Navy right now. But military experts would say if you really want regime change, that there has to be some sort of ground level operation as well. And they don't see that the conditions exist for something like that in Iran. So there's this great confusion of there not being the official sort of legal standing for what's happened. But actually, what is the end game? What is the point of all of this in the president's mind?
- [22:05]
Adam Fleming
And lis, just explain about how it is that Iran is run and who has power that would make it so hard for even half the country, 40 million people, to rise up and get a new kind of country out of it. Just explain why that would be so difficult.
- [22:19]
Lise Doucet
Well, first of all, it's very dangerous to go out into the streets. People have been sent a message on their, on their telephone saying don't, don't go into streets. And if you do, you'll be met with an iron fist and you'll be regarded as a collaborator. And even when we were there, when people, when the security forces were expecting there to be more protests, you had the basiji, which are these volunteer militia on their motorcycles revving around the squares and looking at people. And it felt really ominous, basically saying, we're watching you. And I sent a message to a friend in Tehran this morning and he said, I was stopped three times last night coming home at makeshift checkpoints by the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. So people know how dangerous it is to go out into the streets and,
- [22:59]
Jane Corbyn
and
- [23:01]
Lise Doucet
there's to pick up the idea of the Venezuela option. Let's say that. Can you really just, I hate this, the decapitation. Take out one leader and then find a way to work with the other individuals in the structure. And of course, in Venezuela's Chavismo, you know, the predominant left wing radical philosophy of the government in charge. Iran is completely different. There's been this discussion in recent days. Well, could we work with someone, could we work with Ali Larijani, who's the secretary of the National Security Council, who's playing a bigger role. Yes, is regarded as being more pragmatic. But an individual cannot take over what is a layered system politically, religiously, ideologically. Security. You have in, in you have in Iran not just the armed forces, but you have the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard
- [23:49]
Adam Fleming
Corps, who, which is actually a huge organization.
- [23:51]
Lise Doucet
Huge organization.
- [23:52]
Jane Corbyn
And, and also dug into the country economic interests. They have schools, they have hospitals. They are part of the structure of Iran. There's no way that they are just an elite security force.
- [24:03]
Lise Doucet
And they're so mandate. They were set up in 1979 because the new leaders didn't trust the army. They thought there were elements still loyal to the Shah. Their mandate is to preserve and protect the Islamic Republic. And it's widely believed that the new leadership is now a three man leadership council. But behind the scenes, even in the selection of the successor, when that comes, is the irgc, it's known by this acronym, will play a deciding role because they will want to know who, who's going to be in charge at this moment, this moment of existential threats. So it is possible, it's possible that a new Supreme Leader will emerge who is more on, let's say more of a reformist, or he will still be a leading cleric and that elements within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, for pragmatic reasons, could see a way to perhaps, you know, work, you know, because the Supreme Leader was known for his hostility toward Israel in the United States, deeply suspicious of any contacts with the west, especially the United States, even though he authorized his teams to negotiate with the United States. It is possible that could change, but it's not going to be easy or swift or, or.
- [25:10]
Adam Fleming
Lisa, I'm going to interrupt you because I've just had a message saying you're meant to have been on the news channel live about five minutes ago. So I feel I should.
- [25:16]
Lise Doucet
Maybe Jane is. Yes, yes. But I will mention, I'll mention last thing, and Jane knows this a little very well. There's this phrase that the revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini used in 1988 when he agreed grudgingly, great bitterness to a ceasefire because he realized that the. It was existential, that the survival of the Islamic Republic against Iraq, Iran was isolated. He had to. He said, I drank from a poisoned chalice. Has that moment come again that they will drink from a poisoned chalice? Right now they are fighting a battle to survive.
- [25:50]
Adam Fleming
Lisa, I'm going to let you go. There's lots of demands on your time, so thank you very much for giving us your time.
- [25:55]
Jane Corbyn
So good to see you, too.
- [25:56]
Lise Doucet
Good to see you.
- [25:57]
Jane Corbyn
I was going to say that we know that in that strike on Saturday, one of the key people in the defence area that was killed was the leader of the irgc, this elite force Elise was talking about. But, you know, we also know that after the 12 day war in last June, when there were the initial strikes on Iran by Israel and America, Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, worked very hard to put in place more layers of people who could take over if these very top military officials were killed. So we know that's happened. And we also know, as I covered this in great detail, that when Qassem Soleimani, who was the great IRGC leader, was killed by Donald Trump in his first term by a drone, another leader quickly arose to head the irgc. And Trump himself is saying how evil, in Trump's words, they are. So this did not affect the way that the IRGC operated. And I don't think the killing of them, their present leader on Saturday, will make a difference because by now there will be somebody else heading that up. And they have such a vested interest, the IRGC in this network of patronage in the country in terms of the money they make, the economy that they're bound up with and all of that in society. As Lee said, it's a very layered thing.
- [27:14]
Adam Fleming
And Katrina, can we just talk for a couple of minutes about UK US relations and all of this? Because initially Keir Starmer said that he'd refused to give, give the American military permission to use bases that they have either in the UK or in British territory abroad. Like Diego Garcia, subject of many episodes of newscast over the last couple of years, Donald Trump then gave an interview to the Telegraph newspaper on Monday morning where he basically told off Keir Starmer for doing that. But almost exactly at the same time, Keir Starmer had changed his position and he now said he was going to give the go ahead to the Americans to use lose British bases because it was now a matter of kind of self defense for Britain because British nationals and British allies were being attacked by Iran. What's your take on just what all of that adds up to on Monday evening, or at least Monday evening for us in the uk Monday lunchtime for you in Washington?
- [28:06]
Katrina Perry
Yeah, it's, it's a very, it's a very kind of fascinating one, isn't it? Particularly when you listen to what Sir Keir Starmer said in the House of Commons summons earlier on Monday. You know, he was talking about how his weekend has been basically that he had faced this decision of going in with the US and Israel at the outset on these offensive strikes. And he had decided against that and said again in that speech of the House of Commons that he doesn't support what they're doing, he doesn't support regime change by the air. He questioned the legal standing in fact, for what the U.S. u.S. Is doing here. But he said it had then become apparent when he looked at the sort of, as you say, the self defense element here and a request had come from the US to allow them to use UK bases that he now felt that was in the best interests of the UK and crucially of the UK citizens, he said, who are in the region, about 300,000 UK citizens in the region. And he feels that these bases are needed to help defend those people against the Iranian retaliatory attacks. But it's clearly been a lot of sort of soul searching has been involved for the Prime Minister over those few days. He was being criticized for sitting on the fence here, essentially, wasn't he? But then with that speech in the House of Commons very firmly laying out where he is, and it's in a different place to what we're hearing from Donald Trump about where he is and where the mission for this is. And if it is to be, as President Trump said earlier, four to five weeks, that's going to make for some very, very sticky and tricky conversations between Keir Starmer and Donald Trump and many other allies who want to stand alongside the US but who just don't support the initial basis, at least for what we're seeing here.
- [29:53]
Adam Fleming
President Trump has expressed his disagreement with our decision not to get involved in the initial strikes. But it is my duty to judge what is in Britain's national interest. That is what I've done and I stand by it. Katrina, I'm going to let you go because I know there's lots of demands on your time as well. But thank you very much for chatting to us today.
- [30:15]
Katrina Perry
Okay, talk soon. Bye.
- [30:16]
Adam Fleming
And Jane, what was the point?
- [30:17]
Jane Corbyn
I mean, just picking up, as Katrina said, you know, this goes on to four or five weeks. We know what happens. You know, terrible things happen in terms of civilians being impacted. I mean, we've seen it, we've seen it in Israel, in beit shemesh when 30 something people were killed. We've seen it most of all in Iran itself when, where a school was hit in Minab in the south and schoolchildren died, over 50, apparently. And I think the death toll at the moment, according to the Iranian red Crescent, is 550 people. So we know that there will be missiles that will, will go astray and hit schools and hit civilian targets, which makes all these decisions made by political leaders very, very fraught. Because what happens then if, if a missile belonging to a, you know, that's come from a British plane or an American plane or Israel hits a civilian target, as we've seen in Iran, and that the hitting of that school has caused enormous shock and anger in Iran and actually in the region.
- [31:17]
Adam Fleming
And I mean, this sounds a little bit parochial and there was no loss of life here, but the, the Iranian drone strike on the RAF base in Cyprus, RAF Akrotiri, which, even though it's on the island of Cyprus, that is British territory, British sovereign territory. And the government was saying today that that drone strike they think was launched before the government in the UK changed its mind about what support to provide to all of this. So they're not saying it was retaliation by Iran for kind of KE Starma upping the ante a bit. But you can already see that's now sparked off a side conversation about, well, how badly defended is that base? And actually is, is Starmer weak on defense because he presides over a system where a British, a very important British base can be almost taken out of action very quickly by the Iranians.
- [32:01]
Jane Corbyn
Yeah.
- [32:02]
Adam Fleming
And I mean, spinning off into all sorts of different political directions.
- [32:04]
Jane Corbyn
I mean, obviously going back to the school that was hit in Iran, it has to be said that the likely target was a Revolutionary Guard naval base, which is close by. But, you know, this is what happens. You know, the targets are military and the casualties are often civilian.
- [32:17]
Adam Fleming
So we would like to get your questions throughout the week because I'm sure you've got loads and people like Lis and Jane and Katrina are, are standing by to answer them. So email us newscastbc.co.uk or you can WhatsApp us on 033-01-2390. And actually, do you know what, Jane, I've got a question on my own I might just land you with now.
- [32:39]
Jane Corbyn
I hope I can answer it well,
- [32:40]
Adam Fleming
or we can brainstorm it together or we can just watch Lisa on the news channel, see if she's gonna answer it on arrival meeting. Yeah, she got to that studio very, very quickly. It's back to when Trump was talking about the four things he's sort of targeting and why was one of them the Iranian navy? So I've got used to over the years that the Iranian nuclear negotiations were about enriching uranium. So you could make a nuclear bomb or not, whether it was about ballistic missiles, so rockets that could be fired over long distances. Also Iran's support for groups like Hezbollah who were causing chaos in other countries. Why do we think that the Iranian navy's become such a big deal?
- [33:18]
Jane Corbyn
Well, he has said a lot about the fact that first of all, he said nine Iranian navy ships have been destroyed, has gone up to 10. He's just announced that. I suppose it's because there is this big floating flotilla of American ships in, in, in those waters and they are susceptible to. We know that the Iranians have, for example, I believe, underground underwater drones. We know that they operate high, high speed boats with explosives. Those are specific to the Islamic Republican Guard. And they're, they can be very difficult, very, very dangerous. So I think he's probably thinking about the threat navy and the flotilla that there is there, which is why the Iranian navy has become number three in the four targets.
- [34:06]
Adam Fleming
Excellent analysis on the spot, Jane. Come back again tomorrow, please.
- [34:10]
Jane Corbyn
Looking forward to it.
- [34:11]
Adam Fleming
Thank you very much. And that is the situation as it looks across the region at 5:45 on Monday 2nd March. And that's it for this episode of Newscast, as Jane has promised, she'll be back again tomorrow with another one with me. Bye Bye.
- [34:24]
Katrina Perry
Newscast, Newscast from the BBC.
- [34:27]
Steve Rosenberg
Well, thank you for making it to the end of another newscast. You clearly ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? And then, without having to do anything else, our meandering chat will miraculously make its way to your phone. I'm Steve Rosenberg, the BBC's Russia editor in Our man in Moscow. I'll show you what it's like being a news correspondent in Russia as the Russian authorities wage war on Ukraine and try to silence dissent.
- [35:05]
Katrina Perry
The sound of war has reverberated around
- [35:08]
Lise Doucet
Ukraine for three years.
- [35:09]
Steve Rosenberg
Dramatic geopolitical upheaval alongside threats of intimidation and imprisonment. Our man in Moscow. Watch with a subscription to BBC.com and the BBC app. Visit BBC.com docs to learn more.