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- [00:00]
A
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk. We all do it. You have a night for yourself, but don't like the sound of the silence, so you turn on the TV just for the ambiance. It's a little trick that helps you feel like you've got company and aren't alone. And other insurers, well, they may make you feel alone, but when you switch to Geico, you've got claims reps available around the clock, so whenever you need, you'll have people around to help. And let's turn on the washing machine just for good measure. Isn't that soothing? It feels good to have support. It feels good to Geico.
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B
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A
so, hello, Victoria Darby Show. Now you're in for the Laura Kuenssberg.
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B
I am, yes. She's having a weekend off and we are gonna look at Andy Burnham's plan for the economy, or what we think his plan for the economy might be. And when I spoke to him in June. June. This is still June. When I spoke to him on June 5th. Sorry, a lot has happened. We talked about the economy, so that was not very long ago. And he did say he would stick to Sakir Starmer and Rachel Reeves rules, fiscal rules on managing the finances. On the question of what they were, if he could remind us what they were. He declined to answer that. But this weekend, anyway, he is preparing a speech on the economy which he's going to give on Monday.
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A
And it's not much prep time. I mean, we'll get into this with Feisal, our economics editor. But many Prime Ministers have come into office having spent months and years preparing their program. So Monday's the first clue we get, not only on his economic program, we got quite a lot of clue, but from your interview with him, which went viral, we'll talk about that and also the key question of who will be Chancellor. So welcome to Saturday's newscast, newscast, newscast.
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B
From the BBC, humanity's next great voyage begins.
- [02:03]
C
We are in the midst of a rupture.
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B
Nostalgia will not bring back the old order.
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A
Six, seven. Yeah, it's supposed to be me as a doctor.
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B
Daddy has.
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C
Has also a special connotation. O la la. Thinking about it like a panto helped. Do we play music now or what do we do?
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A
Hello, It's Paddy in the studio.
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B
Hello, it's Victoria in the studio and
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A
shortly we'll be joined by Faisal in the studio. But we're underway because basically Andy burnham's in the 100 metre starting block. If he gets to be Prime Minister, he's got a lot to do and
- [02:33]
B
we're told that this weekend he is writing his speech in Manchester on Monday. I'm told he writes all his own speeches. And there's been a bit of newspaper briefing to the Times in particular today, which talks a lot about devolution. And we know that Andy Burnham is a fan of devolution, obviously, because he's been a mayor of grace Manchester for a number of years, but we are told that that is something he wants to do more of in terms of handing power away from Whitehall to the regions around the country should he become Prime Minister.
- [03:03]
A
Yes, and the phrase should he become Prime Minister is doing so much work.
- [03:06]
B
I know.
- [03:07]
A
I mean, we're both exhausted about saying it. What would he do to the economy? Because those. It's kind of those two questions matter to all of us who live here, they matter to our place in the stock market, our place in on market. And a big clue is going to be given by the people he surrounds himself with right now. So we've also seen him surround himself with some interesting people.
- [03:27]
B
We have. Can we come to those in a minute? Because I can just tell you what the briefing to the Times was today, because I have been one or two mutterings from MPs in the south of the country wondering if the south might lose out under a putative Andy Burnham premiership, because obviously he's a northerner. According to the Times, he's going to suggest in this speech on Monday that the south is paying the price for the economic failure in the north, which would seem to be quite a clever framing, that is the north does better, the south can pay less into the pot kind of thing. He's also, according to the Times, going to reduce government budgets, to increase local budgets and give regional authorities much more power to decide exactly what the money is spent on. So, for example, the. Those in power locally could decide how to spend money on welfare. So it's not done centrally from the DWP at Whitehall.
- [04:23]
A
Yes. And also there could be a decision to split the powers of the treasury, not just geographically, which you've just described, but also by task. It's said that there could be a growth department of the treasury, so you could have a geographical division, you could have a task division, and it would all be seen as, you know, weakening the centralised power of the Treasury. But Andy Burnham would argue, be spreading the powers around the uk.
- [04:50]
B
Yes.
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A
And now, if we think about your interview with him, it was done, I'm pleased to say, in a pub. It was, and it went viral. Victoria. I'll have to be the one to remind everyone of this, because he, when asked, he didn't exactly answer what the fiscal rules were. So. Shall we just have a little listen?
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B
Can you remind us what the fiscal rules are?
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A
I'm not going to go through a
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C
discussion like a, you know, an exam on. On the fiscal rules.
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A
I know what the fiscal rules are. I've been. I've been very clear about it.
- [05:24]
C
We will set out a plan that is within those rules so that we keep the discipline. Nothing I've said at any point in this campaign or before this campaign has been about ignoring the bond markets or saying, they don't. They don't matter.
- [05:41]
B
He'd already made it clear, via Faisal Islam, who was still waiting to join us, that or his team had made it clear that he was going to be sticking to Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves's fiscal rules, which made people question how. How different there could he be then, if he did become Prime Minister? I mean, I don't think it's that difficult question to answer, but anyway, it's up to him whether he answers them or not. He didn't want to. That's absolutely fine. He did make it clear he'd stick to them and he did make it clear that he would also be sticking to Labour's manifesto. And here he is, Faisal.
- [06:11]
A
Hello. Faisal's coming in, love. If you see him, you can take your seat. I'll give a little bit of a question statement whilst Faisal sits down. The interesting thing about the pub as a location is that he has hinted that he could be in favour of dropping pub business rates if he becomes Prime Minister. And that was therefore all part of the kind of headlight flashing that we've had off him ahead of this big speech on Monday.
- [06:35]
B
Yes. And it wasn't just pubs, it was high street shops as well. But, yeah, when. When we. When I went to this pub, it was, you know, it was to make a statement and it was, you know, he had a glass of Guinness as he walked into the interview and in the top, someone had put a. Oh, my God. I can't think what the word is. But anyway, shamrock. It wasn't a shamrock. It actually said the words Vote Andy.
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A
Oh, right.
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B
Obviously, that's quite.
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A
That's quite a lot of neat work with a froth of Guinness.
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B
I know. Absolutely.
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A
Fazi, you've come in here with your Guinness, I'm pleased to say. Other. Other dark beards are available, by the way.
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C
I don't know if I've got my ice skating kind of like, bracelet from this morning as well, in case you were wondering.
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A
You've heard nothing that Victoria and I have said, so let's. I have.
- [07:17]
C
I heard. I heard the. The reflection on the interview that Victoria did with Mr. Burnham.
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A
Well, what was your reflection on Victoria's interview with him?
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C
Well, I thought he was, you know, he clearly didn't want to answer that question, and I was trying to reflect, like, whenever those sorts of questions are put, I kind of think what percentage of the lobby would know the answer to that question? And at a general. A general level, I think you'd expect him to know that. It was like, there's a. It's. It's a debt. Debt falls and the current budget is balanced. At the specific level, it's p. Snuffle falls and the current budget balances over three years. But, like, in a. In a. You know, it is an option open to him to say, listen, I'm not going to sit here and, like, answer that question. I guess. Yeah, it's an interesting one. I don't think many prime ministers, apart from Rishi Sunak, would have got that right.
- [08:10]
B
Okay, that's really interesting, and that's maybe fair. The only reason I asked it. No, no, of course. He said to the New Statesman in September, we've got to get away from this thing of being in hock to the bond market.
- [08:21]
C
Yeah, yeah.
- [08:22]
B
And of course, since then, he'd rose back from that. He'd clarified that he'd never meant we should ignore the bond markets. So I thought it was a legitimate question because he obviously had to, you know, find out more.
- [08:33]
C
It's totally legitimate, and I think it shows the sort of myth of the. Of the rules in a way, isn't it? It's sort of the specifics of the matter to some degree, but they regularly get changed. It's almost like the myth of them. It's like the fact that you have this set of constraints that will kind of whip you into shape because we can't trust politicians to, like, not want to spend money. And indeed, the very setting of your interview, which is a kind of like what he's. What is he communicating, as you were just saying to the pubs that we can some way do Something nice on vat. Well, where's that going to come from? If he's going to stick to the rules, essentially, that will have to be funded or as may well be happening, if it does go his way, as it seems like it will do that. Some of the numbers are going, you know, the oil price is falling, borrowing costs are down. The borrowing costs are down. I, I, you know, if you're Rachel Reeves or K Starmer, looking at this right now, at this particular moment, where you get the double whammy benefit of both the oil price being lower and you also get your borrowing costs going down and suddenly things in autumn, you know, certainly you probably won't have to do some sort of significant bailout of the, of the energy markets, which is what was the standard procedure. So, yeah, he may well, him and whoever his Chancellor is, you know, you know, there may be a set of cards here better than we would have thought.
- [09:57]
B
Paddy and I were just discussing the, the briefing that the Times has had today regarding this speech on Monday and the possibility of further devolution, which we know he's a fan of. Have you had any kind of similar briefing? You've got good contacts with Team Burnham.
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C
Yeah. So this is long standing, kind of what you would say was Burnham's agenda, which is that we have, it's not just the, an unequal country, but we have a sort of economy that doesn't function properly in low product. You can pin that on the low productivity of our second and third cities.
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B
Right.
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C
That's the basic kind. And then what's the actual reason for that? Is it planning? Is it like a lack of transport infrastructure? All that sort of stuff falls now and then his solution. Now, others would argue, I think, from the right, that the solution is, well, a far more free market, that kind of lower taxes, lower taxes that benefits entrepreneurs and all that sort of stuff. Now, his diagnosis is that you need much more power closer to where those decisions are made. And, and I think, I think there's some confusion. This is creating quite a delicious confusion, I think, from what I see from in Westminster. So, you know, I've obviously been part of Westminster and I now live in London. But like, and, you know, as you are yourself, Victoria, you know, I have kind of strong roots in Manchester.
- [11:15]
A
Well, he, Hang on, he credits you in his book Head north as being the one who knew he was going to run for Manchester mayor first. And in the book it says you rang him up and said, are you going to run as man? He said, can you hold it till after the 10. 10pm well, that's what the books.
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C
I would have done no favor. No to him because actually I think he made a slight mistake. I couldn't have run that story before 10 because of the rules on, on broadcasting. It's a day of local elections.
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A
Yeah.
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C
The detail that's missing was, was that I couldn't have run that story before 10. But yes, I did, I did, I, I picked that up and that was extremely interesting that he made that run. Indeed. I'll give you another little detail here. I got, I phoned up or texted George Osborne at the time and I think this is missed. This whole journey starts with George Osborne creating his merities in order to get the first slice of power for the Greater Manchester area. And Greater Manchester was the. They called it, or I think I called it Devo Mank. Right. The devolution essentially to Manchester. And they wanted at that time the entire £22 billion worth of money that was spent in Manchester to be spent by somebody voted for in Manchester. George Osborne was cock a hoop when Andy Burnham left Parliament and went for the Manchester mayoralty because for him it was proof of concept that you got a big figure. Obviously, I tell you what my first instinct was, was he's from Liverpool, isn't he? I was genuinely confused because he was identified with the Hillsborough campaign. I knew that he was an Everton supporter and he was MP for Lee. And it is a bit of a mixed bag but then, I mean, maybe a little measure if his political skill. There's someone so rooted in. And we all know about the rivalry between Liverpool and not just about the football. For him to have pulled that off at the same time just shows his sort of political dexterity, shall we say. But yeah, no, listen, in terms of what we're to expect tomorrow, so, so I. Sorry on Monday. Yeah, yeah. I think that we get some flesh on the bones in terms of this. The, the structures that he thinks have lent against a. A more effective economy growing not equally but like more across the whole of the country. So it's things like, I think more power to cities. Treasury potentially changed in some way with
- [13:40]
A
a growth mission, maybe divided up, give it a growth function headed by one type of.
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B
Based in another part of the country.
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A
That could be both or either.
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C
Yeah, let's, let's see where that goes.
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B
Okay.
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A
Right.
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C
Like, I mean, we'll come on, I'm sure to the identity of a Chancellor, but let's just say that that does happen. Well, that Chancellor is somewhat less powerful if it's. If, if the treasury split in two. Remember, he's got form with the Treasury. He was the second, he was the Chief Secretary to the Treasury. And in the book that you mentioned, one of the key moments that I think we need to understand here is when he is approving Crossrail as the Chief Secretary to the Treasury. So this is Elizabeth Line.
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B
Yeah, yeah.
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C
And he wanted to know if there was an equivalent project in the north of England that he could announce at the same time because he was a little bit like, this doesn't look right. We're spending so much money on the south where there's already growth and growth begets growth so you get more transport, so the growth happens there and it becomes this kind of self fulfilling prophecy. He's like, well, hang on, we need to start that dynamic in the north of England and elsewhere in the country. And he wanted to know, and he was told that the treasury rules, what's known as a Green Book, would not pass any project in the north. So he has been campaigning to reform that. We might hear more of that. Richard Reeves has already started that. Now it gets quite in the weeds, but is quite intriguing in terms of the politics across all four nations, which is the Barnett formula, which allocates money to Northern Ireland and Scotland. There is a widespread belief in the north of England, Northeast and northwest, that that does the northeast and the northwest out of transport spending. And he has, he's advocated in his book Head north, co written with Steve Rotherham, to abolish the Barnett formula, which would have huge consequences in Scotland and Wales. Yeah, and the devil's in the detail in these sorts of policies because it sounds all well and good, giving more power, potentially transferring spending, taxation, power to particular regions in, say the north of England. But where does that money come from? Where is it being spent currently? Are we saying less infrastructure in the southeast, more in the north? That's going to be controversial.
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A
I mean, the other thing to say, if I could just zoom out the kaleidoscope. No one even has a kaleidoscope anymore. I'm sounding so 20th century here, but actually when you think about how Prime Ministers arrived at number 10 before Margaret Thatcher, elected in 1975 as leader of the Conservative Party, elected and then became Prime Minister 1979. David Cameron, elected as Conservative Party leader in 2005, becoming Prime Minister in 2010. Tony Blair becoming leader of the Labour Party in 1994, becoming Prime Minister on election in 1997. Those are years of preparation for your program and this business of one speech by Andy Burn on Monday with all these sort of pre existing. If you are currently overpaying on software to run your business, remember this number 10,000.
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B
That's the number of new businesses that
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A
join Odoo per month. Join odoo today@odoo.com that's odoo.com sometimes life
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C
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A
Like a landscaper's first day trimming a hedge maze.
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C
I have definitely already been here. Now was it left, right or right left?
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A
Well, maybe I'll cut a path out
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C
and find my way back later. But it wasn't like that. I filed a claim in under two minutes on the Geico app and they handled it from there. It was taken care of almost as quickly as it happened.
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A
It feels good to get help quick. It feels good to Geico things. He's going to have to point to whatever he's going to say. He is always believed in this. Faisal. It's still the most accelerated program to arrive in a G7 country as the Prime Minister. And not only that. After what looks like a coup to get Prime Minister power from within his party.
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C
I think it is extraordinary. There's a couple of things to unpack. There. There is the. There is, if you like, the supply chain of our leaders. And this is very different I would argue actually though, you know, you look at our great metropolitan leaders, let's put Burnham aside. People like Richard Lee, Sir Howard Bernstein, the latest Howard Bernstein who have transformed cities.
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B
You know, they're a former chief executive of Manchester City Council. Former leader of Manchester City Council.
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C
Yes. Why weren't they called upon to do some of that transformation across the country? There is some. There is something to this critique that Westminster is obsessed with itself and the games within itself and doesn't literally, you know, everyone now is an expert on Manchester. Manchester. There is a Manchester regeneration. You know, honestly, how many, how many of the guests we have in this room knew anything about this before. Before six months ago, there was something very, very interesting happening in Manchester. I mean, I just happened to be from there, so I would already have noticed it. So there's that. So there's supply chain, if you like. If you've done well in a. In a region, there's a basis upon which to build on. So that is interesting. But also the way in which you've become leader. I. I was thinking about this just whilst I was cycling in. You think about David Cameron becoming Conservative leader. He made a series promises that were hugely consequential on Europe to the Eurosceptics, which ended up, frankly, with the referendum. Okay. It was literally his promise to leave the European People's Party, and I forget which year it was that led to a.
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A
Are you saying he's clean skin? He's got. He's got. He's got form, but he also hasn't got like, many promises. Although he says he'll stick to the manifesto. So he has still got thing.
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C
Well, this is the thing. Right. Can he Can. If you look at his book, how much of that Venn diagram overlaps with what was in the manifesto? Right now, I think.
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B
What's the answer?
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C
Well, there's two big judgments to make now that we can discern over the next week that are absolutely vital for the next couple of years. We'll go on to the choice of Chancellor, but also, is he going to come out with pure benimism, you know, as is contained in his book Head north, which is what he believes. There's all sorts of constitutional stuff in there about proportional representation, abolishing the House of Lords. He. He believes this. And this goes back to a different part of his hinterland, which is the infected blood and the Hillsborough Inquiry. You know, he believes that that is symptomatic of a failing at the heart of. Of the way Britain is run, that
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A
you have to fight and you need
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C
a written constitution that you look to what's happened in Germany with East Germany and how they've leveled things up in East Germany with big first. And you try to apply that to the UK now, you know, there are big consequences of this. So the question I will. That should be answered in the next couple of weeks, really is, is he gonna push ahead with delivering the manifesto? Therefore he can go long on an election, or does he want a new mandate for what he wrote in his book? In which case, I imagine we're going to get an election.
- [21:10]
B
He. Sooner, for what it's worth, he said to me on June 5th, and obviously people can change and you know, things have sort of speeded up. He said he believed that there are, using the manifesto, there are, there are more things you can do. For example, we know he is in favor of stronger public control of the essentials, transport, housing, energy, water. He thinks within the current manifesto you could go further on that. Now, whether that means nationalizing Thames water or whether that. And he did say he would nationalize temp's water or whether that just means better regulation. You know, we say ofcom's not very good or off what is ruthless, et cetera, et cetera. Is there better regulation? Does that mean stronger public control that you could do within the current manifesto. Can I read this email from Steph? Do you mind?
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A
I think it's essential.
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B
Stephanie says, does Andy Burnham have a mandate for change? Obviously speaks to what you were saying, Faisal. She thinks yes, and says we are not a presidential system. Power lies with the party that won the most seats. The party has a mandate and that party can make whoever they want their leader. Please discuss.
- [22:16]
A
I mean, the answer to Stephanie is yes, the system allows you to change the party leader. The system has been really stress tested in 10 years because we haven't really been used to this churn for a very long time. It has happened at various other stages in our history, but it hasn't happened recently.
- [22:32]
C
So I think the detail does matter. And we take an example of what you just mentioned, Victoria, which was nationalizations. Now a mass program of seizing the commanding heights of the economy or paying tens of billions of pounds, you'd struggle to see a justification for that in the manifesto, but there's a mixed economy here and, and again, you take the example of Manchester. Again, not many people, more people should know this, but one of the, the unique characteristics of Greater Manchester is that they half own one of our biggest airports. In fact, they also own Sunset Airport, bizarrely. But that's a big that. That yields profits to the councils for Manchester, it prevail. It also means there's a certain strategic lever there, like, I don't know if you know. It means that when the people in charge of Manchester are talking to big international investors, sovereign wealth funds that own airlines, for example, you can actually have levers of power there that are necessary. And it's like, it's a very, very interesting. And so, you know, is that the model, does that model work across Britain? I think they will point to the growth figures in the center of Manchester, the city of Manchester, and say there's something here for the rest of the country to follow. It is a fairly unique circumstance.
- [23:47]
B
Who might be the next Chancellor? Because that's such a key role and will tell us so much about the. The direction of travel.
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C
I don't think we're going to know quickly. I think literally decisions haven't been made. There are various people across Westminster somewhat spinning for their people.
- [24:05]
B
I mean, they're really. The briefing that's going on, the trashing of some candidates and the jockeying for position is. Is, you know, I suppose it's what you would expect.
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C
We should have a debate, shouldn't we should bring it out in the open. We should have them lined up. Well, because in the studio.
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A
Is it right to say there are three? Three candidates?
- [24:22]
C
Well, I, I've heard that there are three. And then there are also another two.
- [24:25]
A
Right, so shall we do the name?
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C
I don't know.
- [24:30]
A
So we can all get the three. So the three are. Ed Miller, Band, Shabana Mahmood.
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B
We're treating West Streeting.
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C
Yeah.
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B
And the other two are.
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A
I knew this would be hard. That's why.
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B
Is it someone that they could put in the Lords or is it people who are elected?
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C
Well, I think you then get into a situation where if they do split things up. So. So here's the other thing to bear in mind. Right. Really when you think about the Chancellor, is that from what we've already heard as well, there's quite astonishing economic muscle potentially going into number 10.
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B
Okay.
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C
Which would make a big, big difference. Like I have not heard of a number 10. If you like being economically tooled up with the likes of a Jim o'.
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A
Neill.
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B
Yeah.
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C
And Haldane. And a Richard, you know, Richard Hughes of the obr. So Andy Haldane is the former bank of England chief economist and Richard Hughes is the former chair of the obr, considered within the Treasury. Obviously he made that mistake or was took responsibility for the mistake over the leaking of the OBR documents last year, but is considered in the treasury to be their best fiscal economist and a great loss to the Treasury.
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B
So Jim o', Neill, former Goldman Sachs
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A
banker and non executive director of Manchester United.
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B
Right. And did a lot of work with Northern Powerhouse when George Osborne was translated.
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C
Yes, yes. But it was connected to the Tories in George Osborne.
- [25:44]
A
Is the significance that you said they're going into number 10, not number 11? Is that. Are you reminding us that they're going around the Prime Minister, those people.
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B
Hang on, we've got too many questions here. Who are the other two?
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C
Darren Jones and I actually don't know. I could get. So if they split up the treasury, then you're like, well, what's the most powerful bit there? Well, the Chancellor would become the physical. I don't know the answer to that question. I don't know who it is. But there's some other. I think. I think it's highly unlikely. I don't know. I've been told that there's the three we know about and there's. There's two more.
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A
Because his. Because Victoria and I were thinking you knew them and we.
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C
No, no, no, no. I'm guessing. I'm guessing. I'm guessing that. I'm guessing that it's not. It's probably quite a small chance, but like that the current chance, there is not 100 out of it, but probably have a rather small chance.
- [26:33]
B
Well, she has been doing interviews this week suggesting that her work is unfinished and, yes. Clearly wanting to stay in that job and that the bond markets find her credible and so on.
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C
And this is really rather interesting because I think I know what has been noticed within some of the economic people around Burnham is that this week there hasn't been a flicker out of the bond market.
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B
Correct.
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C
Right. That is really interesting.
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B
Yeah.
- [26:51]
C
I think that there are a lot of people, particularly on the opposition benches, who are sort of assuming, possibly even willing it into being. Obviously, the. The background internationally has been beneficial. The oil price has been coming down and the like. But given everything, you might have expected the effective borrowing rate of government to have gone up this week amid the uncertainty. It hasn't. And that is still with Ed Miliband seen as probably circling, not the most favorite, but the single most likely.
- [27:21]
B
But given that Andy Burnham's already said he's going to stick to the fiscal rules, which. And as soon as his team made that clear to you, Faisal, which was two days after Josh Simons had resigned as MP for Makerfield, the cost of borrowing over 10 years dropped back a bit. So. So. So maybe that's in, you know, enough for the time being.
- [27:41]
C
Yeah. I think you're getting very interesting briefing here where it gets really pretty interesting. So you take people in sort of Ed Miliband's circle, stressing that he can be tough in an unexpected way. So he's been painted as very redhead, very left wing, all that stuff that went back to his. His election. But the sort of message we're getting out of Miliband's people is, oh, hang on a minute. He's the one that. He's certainly one of the main voices that suggested very strongly that the physical rules need to be unequivocally stuck to number one and number two. And this is really very interesting, I think, which is that he could be the person to deliver welfare reform. And we've heard from Mr. Burnham that that process with Alan Milburn, which we covered in such depth, where Melbourne did not come up with any actual policies, but like my reading of that, of the logical policy that Melbourne would come up with, would be some sort of restriction on universal credit for young people. That's where it seems to be heading to me in, like, crystal clear.
- [28:47]
B
Yeah.
- [28:48]
C
Imagine that going off just after. If he'd suggested that in the middle of what. What was happening to the Prime Minister in middle May. So they parked that it is still coming. That's where the logic train gets you to. Right now, if Burnham, Miliband or others are saying that they have the credibility to revisit that and deliver that, that is the sort of thing that maybe the markets might be impressed with because they have assumed that this government, notwithstanding its massive majority, ain't gonna go there well, again, after what happened a year ago. Yeah. So if they say to the markets, well, do you know what? You think we're lefties. But actually, we can do it.
- [29:24]
A
So Newsnight has done a bit of digging in the archive and this is really, perhaps for you to explain, but looking at the character of James Purnell.
- [29:32]
C
Oh, yes.
- [29:32]
A
Who could be coming.
- [29:33]
B
Yeah. So he is going to be. And Andy Burnham's chief of staff. So he'll be running number 10, essentially. Is that right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Sorry, I'm getting earlier.
- [29:46]
A
We had to check what month it was.
- [29:49]
B
Yeah. And so he was a Blairite. He was DW in charge of the DWP for a period of time, and when he left, when he got it, ended up in opposition after 2010. He did a film for Newsnight, those were the days, and talks about, you know, welfare reform and how it should. Should be changed and what should be cut and so on and so forth. And here's a clip from the Newsnight archives.
- [30:14]
A
What we now need to do is to protect people against the things they're really scared about. Losing their home, losing their job, being ill for a long time in old age. And if there are other benefits which people don't value as much, I would put them further down the list of priorities. I'm not saying necessarily get rid of child benefit. I'm saying let's order all the things that we care about and let's see the ones that are most vulnerable.
- [30:32]
C
What's at the bottom? What do we care less least about that we're currently paying for?
- [30:35]
A
I think winter fuel allowances. I think free bus passes.
- [30:38]
C
I wouldn't say that if you're an old person who couldn't afford their fuel bill, would you?
- [30:41]
A
I talked to lots of people who, in their 60s, for example, about free bus passes, who said, I should get
- [30:45]
C
this when I'm 70.
- [30:46]
A
When I'm 80.
- [30:47]
B
So, yes, that was 2011. I have no idea if he still feels the same way, you know, 15 years on.
- [30:52]
A
But it speaks to Faisal's point, which is about, look at who's coming in and who he's surrounding himself with. Jim o', Neill, Andy Haldane, James Purnell, who all have said interesting things on the record. For instance, Jim o' Neill's been talking about investing in infrastructure.
- [31:08]
C
Yes. Which you can do within the fiscal rules. You can bend them a little bit. Ed Miliband has done that within the Department for the Environment in terms of funding for insulation and the like. You can do some clever stuff with borrowing within the fiscal rules. And it goes back to your point, Paddy, which is about if he is to come in without having made too many promises, he might be able to bend his mandate in all sorts of ways and persuade the markets and others that, well, you know, yeah, I can deliver things like this. You know, he's obviously always been rather big. One of the features of Andy Burnham's background in policy has been obsession with social care and the fact that social care has not been sorted out. I think we can all agree that it hasn't been sorted out. And logically, that's gonna require some sort of tax rise. Right. That's always been like, I mean, how do you fund it? How do you create a sort of NHS of social care? Well, you know, so how clean his entry in over the next two or three weeks. And I think the other thing to I discern from the Labour Party is that they have looked at what the Conservatives have done. The method of the coup, as you call it, matters if it's done in a painful way that creates agony and annoyance that festers. You don't have a stable majority. You may have a theoretical majority, but it's just not there. What does that mean? It means the markets don't trust that you can get your policies through a budget. So the way in which the Labour Party is attempting to pull this off, which is just, here you go, it's all yours. Now, there are some democratic issues there, I'm sure that we're going to be litigated, but actually in terms of saying maximum flexibility, but also saying to the markets, I can get my budget through. I mean, it was an astonishing thing to think that Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer couldn't get their budgets through. I remember sat there in the Trena Gaunt news studio thinking, I just, you know. You know, we thought, this is understandable when you're in a minority government. It's understandable when you've got a small majority. But it's astonishing that they couldn't do that.
- [33:12]
A
Everything about this has been astonishing. And just on what the other political parties will say, I think the further he does go from what amounted to I won't pull the three big levers that manifesto. I won't raise tax, I won't raise VAT and I won't raise employee national insurance. The further he ebbs from that, the more the clamor will be for general election, which is a point I think you've already made. But one of the things that it's not clear to me about is if you extend the base of vat, have you put VAT up? And I just wonder if there is quite a lot of wiggle room which could be worth 5 billion in without breaking a manifesto pledge. If I put VAT or more things. Faisal, have I put VAT up?
- [33:54]
C
There would. Now, I'm stretching my memory now of whether the manifesto mentioned the rate alone of VAT or whether it was implied. I certainly know in terms of the fiscal drag, which is the freezing of the income tax threshold. I asked Rachel Reeves about that for the election and she explicitly said it wasn't included that promise. So they had some wiggle room on that. But reasonably it was an increase in income tax. So, like, totally reasonable political point. You can always find, you know, I imagine there's going to be some things done on things like council tax. Right. You know, the, the, the, you know, and he's talked about land taxes in and he's talked about trying to fund these big infrastructure projects that we've seen some feet tracking on. I think things like HS2, some sort of son of. Definitely not called HS2, but looks rather like HS2 all the way up to Manchester coming back is back on the agenda. Northern, they'll. They'll speed up Northern Powerhouse Rail. There's all this constitutional stuff. Like, I mean, and Victoria, you know a lot more about this than I do on things like the infected blood inquiry and Hillsborough, like, it seems to re. And then his connection with Steve Rotherham, it seems to really define what he wants to. How he views the dysfunction of Westminster.
- [35:18]
B
Well, that's, I mean, you will know the government has been trying to get through this Hillsborough Law. And at the first conference, Labour Party conference in Liverpool, when Keir Starr, his first conference as Prime Minister, I spoke to Andy Burnham and Steve Rotherham straight after the conference speech where Keir Starmer said, this will be the government that brings in the Hillsborough Law. And they had tears in their eyes. They were so emotional about the fact that a Labour government was doing this and we're two years on and it still hasn't happened and that, you know, there are so many priorities for, you know, Andy Burnham as Prime Minister, he's on course to be it, but that has got to be up there, that duty of candor for everyone in public office to tell the truth. That's part of that would strike me as being part of his DNA, that sort of, that truth telling, fairness.
- [36:03]
A
Yeah.
- [36:03]
B
To make sure those injustices like post office infected blood, Hillsborough nuclear veterans doesn't happen again.
- [36:10]
A
Because it, it seems, and you're right to mention that Victoria's done a lot of work in this area because you have, it seems that you have to drag the British state to do the right thing. That's what it feels like to people. And it is in fact what people have said you do have to do. There's been apology after apology after apology for waiting too long to do anything. And when we played that clip from 2011 with James Pernell speaking to Jeremy Paxman, since the financial crisis of 2008, state, it's not really very clear that people's living standards have gone up in nearly 20 years. So you've also got, you've got a stasis of the state to do the right thing and you've got a stasis of living standards. And that explains a lot of our political anger at the moment. Faiz, I don't know if you agree, the idea that it seems to be, if it's working, it's working for somebody else.
- [36:58]
C
Yes. And so this is where it gets very, very interesting because the outlet for that anger, including some social media as well, has been in what is loosely called the culture wars. So he, he, I think, thinks that actually people think the state isn't working and, and you just, you have. There needs to be a sort of. You just need to fix everything or as much as you can. You need to rebuild Britain essentially. And that. That will appeal to some of the same voters that say Nigel Farage has proven very successful at attracting in the past couple of years. However, with how passionately he feels about some of these injustices that have required inquiries. You know, we've already seen with the WASPy women pension issue that there was a lot of concern about that. But when push comes to shove in government, Keir Starmer. Oh, we just can't pay Several billion, over 10 billion on this. And it was sort of parked now on the issue of Hillsborough, for example, on the duty of candor, there has been this concern from law authorities, doesn't there? And potentially Secret Service. And the Secret Service, essentially.
- [38:17]
B
Yeah.
- [38:18]
C
Now it's one thing as the Mayor of Manchester saying that. No, now as soon as you. If you become Prime Minister and you get whatever is the secret briefcase of information, do you change your view on that?
- [38:31]
B
I mean.
- [38:31]
A
Yeah, you can't go on. You can't go on. I mean, you can, I know you can, but unfortunately the clock has defeated us. So we say, we say. I can't believe you cycled in when it's 31 degrees in this capital.
- [38:43]
B
He's not even wearing shorts.
- [38:44]
A
He's not.
- [38:45]
C
Well, I think nobody wants to see that.
- [38:46]
A
I think that's a good.
- [38:47]
C
You're wearing sandals.
- [38:48]
A
I've hidden them under the table. So look, it's great, Father, thank you so much. We're going to preview. That's a great preview for what's happening on Monday. We're doing the same on Radio 4. We're going to try and do that,
- [38:57]
C
but probably for tonight.
- [39:00]
B
Oh my God.
- [39:01]
A
England go through. Come up May.
- [39:03]
B
Well, yes. Yeah, I, I mean I'll be asleep because I'm getting up early to do Laura's show. But, but, but please play better than the other night against Ghana, please.
- [39:12]
C
I was there in, in Boston.
- [39:15]
B
I was.
- [39:15]
A
Yeah, I need another podcast.
- [39:16]
C
It was quite, it was quite a choice of game to go to. I'll just put it like that.
- [39:20]
B
Depressing.
- [39:21]
A
I.
- [39:21]
C
The Ghana fans were fantastic, you know, completely.
- [39:23]
B
Of course they were.
- [39:24]
C
Of course they were. And hats off. Yeah, it's fine, it's fine. We qualified. They qualified.
- [39:30]
B
That, that, that really lowered my expectations. Having had a good second half in the first game.
- [39:36]
C
That's probably quite good. That's probably quite.
- [39:38]
A
And we, we say hello to our Scotland fans, our Tartan army fans. Cuz we don't.
- [39:42]
B
Well, they're amazing.
- [39:43]
A
They're amazing. And if the contest could be about winning by your fan, you know.
- [39:48]
B
Well, yes, of course.
- [39:48]
A
Hello, Scotland.
- [39:49]
B
Scotland being the final, I have to
- [39:50]
C
say they did shut all. Did Definitely shut all the pubs. For the England fans, it was. There was something. They seem to love Scotland a lot more than they loved England. I'll just put it like that. But that might. That might go back 250 years. Was it in history? Right, okay, look, he's trying to show.
- [40:03]
A
He's trying to end this. There are newscasters all over the land with their earbuds, losing the power, the little blue lights flashing. So thank you very much for listening. Please join Victoria on the Telly Nine.
- [40:14]
B
00am, BBC One Sunday.
- [40:16]
C
Yep.
- [40:16]
A
And it's your opportunity to say you could join me.
- [40:19]
B
Oh, sorry, Paddy. And please join Paddy on BBC Radio 4 for Broadcasting House, which when I'm not selling in for Laura, I always listen.
- [40:26]
A
Okay.
- [40:27]
B
I send you messages. Great show.
- [40:31]
A
Right, so we'll all again tomorrow.
- [40:33]
B
Yes.
- [40:33]
C
Goodbye.
- [40:34]
B
Goodbye.
- [40:35]
A
Newscast.
- [40:36]
B
Newscast from the BBC.
- [40:37]
C
Humanity's next great voyage begins. We are in the midst of a rupture.
- [40:42]
B
Nostalgia will not bring back the old order.
- [40:44]
A
Six, seven. Yeah, it's supposed to be me as a doctor.
- [40:48]
B
Daddy has.
- [40:49]
C
Has also a special quotation. Thinking about it like a panto helped. Do we play music now or what do we do?
- [41:04]
B
When I got a new car, I
- [41:05]
A
thought my insurance premium would increase and
- [41:07]
B
empty my bank account like if a tween won the lottery. I've invested most of my winnings in chicken tenders because they're bomb. But bro, I bought a house and it's sick, bro.
- [41:17]
A
I'm thinking the floor is going to
- [41:18]
B
be all trampoline, bro.
- [41:20]
C
With a helipad on the roof.
- [41:21]
A
The contractor said it's structurally unsound. They're just being babies.
- [41:26]
C
But switching to GEICO saved me hundreds,
- [41:28]
B
so my bank account is safe.
- [41:29]
A
It feels good to save some hard earned cash. It feels good to geico.