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A
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK Puerto Rico is having a moment of global attention. Behind it are decades of execution, preparation and business momentum. Global companies manufacture, innovate and scale here with confidence, not culture or business. Culture and business Puerto Rico. It's not what's next, it's where. Visit investpr.org business decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. But what policy changes should investors be watching? Washington Wise is an original podcast from Charles Schwab that unpacks the stories making news in Washington right now and how they may affect your finances and portfolio. Listen@schwab.com washingtonwise that's schwab.com washingtonwise
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B
so, James, I think the last time that you and I were together on newscast, we were talking to Lise Doucet, who was in Tehran, and we were both totally struck by what she was telling us.
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C
Yeah. Because that was the first time she'd been there since those protests and the deadly response to the protests from the Iranian government. And it was amazing because we very rarely are granted access by the government to Iran to hear her take and look where we are now.
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B
I mean, how much has changed since we were having that conversation with Lees to what the situation is now and everything that's happened in between?
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C
It's an unbelievably different world.
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B
It is.
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C
We're going to be hearing all about it on this episode of Newscast, Newscast,
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B
Newscast from the BBC.
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D
Fat boy sliver me in the classroom doing our violin lessons.
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C
I was the tattletale in the classroom. Can I have an apology, please? I trust almost nobody that daddy has to sometimes use strong language next time in mosque.
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E
I feel dulu with no salulu.
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D
Take me down to Downing Street. Let's go have a tour.
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C
Blimey. Hello, it's James in the studio.
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B
And it's Alex in the studio.
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C
And the war in Iran and especially the wider instability in the Middle east is having ramifications all over the world, especially for the global economy. Today we heard that the oil price had risen above $100 a barrel. And that's the first time since we
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B
when 2022, I think. And I mean, it's not it's not like this hasn't been expected because we've heard a lot over the course of the last week about all of the interruption there's been to shipping through the Straits of Hormuz and all of the ramifications that might have. But now we're seeing it really play out in the price of a barrel
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C
of oil and what does that mean for all of us is the big question. And to help us unpack that, we have Darshini David, deputy economics editor. Hello, Darshini.
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F
Hello.
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C
And Katia's in Brussels. Katia, not just Brexit cast original, not just Europe editor, but presenter of Europe on Edge as well. Hi, Katya.
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E
Hello.
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C
Hello, Dharshini, first of all, what does it mean?
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F
What does it mean? How long have you got? Well, I mean, $100 is quite a round number. That's the first thing to say. $100 in itself doesn't mean, oh my goodness. But I think when you look at the pace with which the oil price climbed on Sunday night, when the markets reopened for the week, it took everyone by surprise. Right. And this is on top of what we'd already seen as being the biggest weekly rise since 1990. So we're looking here at a quite sort of blistering rise in oil prices. And of course, we mustn't forget gas as well. Gas futures, we talk about that quite a bit, have doubled in the last 10 days.
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C
Futures being how much you think it will be at a certain period. Yes, exactly.
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F
If you were trying to buy gas at a certain point in the future, you would say that is a price, so that has actually doubled. So what does this mean? It means that we have got more concerned about the impact on inflation. We're not talking about return to the height of the Ukraine war because things are still a lot more contained. This is energy. Remember that one was a food price shock as well. But on the other hand, there are now alarm bells ringing and people saying if, and it's still a big if this is sustained at these levels or go even higher, then we are looking at, you know, that downward sort of trend we've had in inflation. Not only is that going to be derailed, but we're likely to see that be a bit uncomfortable for some people for some time. And that could go in all sorts of directions. And that in turn has had repercussions on bond markets as well. So all sorts of things there to on.
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B
So if I'm sort of just sitting at home thinking, blimey, I've just seen this news that oil's gone up $100 first time since 2022. My initial thinking is, okay, what's that going to mean for me? Like, where might I see that have an impact in my day to day? Is it in my, like the petrol I put in my car? Is it my heating bill? Is it something else entirely?
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F
Well, already I think people who've been up to fill out their car will have noticed that prices have been creeping up. And at the beginning of last week, we all said, it'll take a while for this to reach the pump. It is felt, and we've heard the Chancellor in the last few minutes actually talking about this, saying we'll keep a close eye on what's going on there because they are aware that there could be an issue there when it comes to the kind of margins that retailers might be trying to make. Where next might you see it? Things like, for example, I mentioned their bond markets. Now, that does matter to people because it impacts fixed mortgage rates. Right. So if you're taking out a new fixed rate mortgage, remember the Trust mini budget, and at the time we saw that sort of spike in mortgage rates, the. Those kind of rates are on the climb again. So you might notice that. You may also notice in the coming days and weeks, if this carries on like this, that some other things are getting more expensive. Because although gas prices don't affect domestic heating bills until a few months out, so we're not going to see the impact there yet, businesses could start to feel the pinch and the squeeze and that in turn could mean that some prices start creeping. I'm thinking things like airfares, for example.
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B
So basically, if you, if you're heating bill at home, we've now got this energy price, which means that's not going to change for the next few months. But if you're a business or something, you. You haven't got that, you're going to feel absolutely the impact of this more quickly.
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F
Absolutely. Whereas for price, sorry, energy, domestic energy prices, we should say the cap remains until the end of June.
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B
So, Katya, in light of all this, we've had lots of European leaders get together for this G7 finance meeting today. Presumably that's sort of the equivalent of the Chancellor from G7 nations getting in a room and having a chat. I mean, how does it work? Who's involved and what did they come up with?
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E
So I think if you look at it from the European point of view, what Iran is not doing is taking on the United States and Israel directly. Particularly, it's widening and broadening this conflict. So so many countries, it's not just in the Middle east that are being targeted by Iranian missiles, but as we're talking about in the UK and all over Europe, there are populations being affected. The concerns about rising gas and oil prices, concerns about how, you know, consumer goods might be affected if inflation goes up, concern about a possible new Migration crisis. If this goes on and there's a migration wave coming from the Middle east of civilians trying to escape from, from that. So you've had the G7 meeting today, you had the EU having a video conference with countries across the Middle east to say we're still there at the moment, to be honest, as many forums as get together, it's a group of individual countries because at the end of the day, every country is worrying about itself. What is going to be the effect on its population and governments worrying the longer this goes on, not only will this have an economic but it will also have a political effect. And within the eu, you can even see that between big European powers Germany and Spain. I mean, think back to last week, right? So Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, immediately after the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, he said, oh, you know, there's no point having a go at allies under this sort of circumstance and there's no point really looking at international law under this sort of circumstance. Whereas the Spanish Prime Minister was like, this is definitely outside international law. When Donald Trump last week lashed out at the Spaniards, said he was going to impose a massive trade embargo on the Spaniards, who was sitting next to him in Washington? It was Friedrich Merz of Germany. And did he open his mouth to say anything to support his ally inside the European Union, inside NATO? He said not a word. Why not? Well, he's thinking, the United States is our second largest trade partner in Germany and our economy is already in the doldrums. Germany, like the UK and other big economies in Europe, you've got a lot of people struggling with the cost of living. You have Germany depending on its exports. They are energy hungry exports, the car industry, the chemicals industry, They've already lost out on the cheap Russian gas because of the war in Ukraine. And now they get 96% of LNG, their liquefied natural gas from the United States. And therefore he's acting first and foremost in Germany's interest. What this means is that even inside these allied groups, there are a lot of frictions and Beijing is watching, Moscow is watching, and Europe can no longer fully rely on the United States as a predictable ally.
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C
Well, what can they do then? And can they do anything collectively? Darshini and one thing that we've heard they could do collectively is release these barrels, emergency barrels of oil. Indeed. The Chancellor, we're recording it just, just coming up to 5pm on Monday. So the Chancellor was speaking in the past half an hour or so, Rachel Reeves, and she was also talking about this. The potential release of stockpiles. I mean, it sounds like. Like when you see release of oil stockpiles flooding out into the streets, which obviously would be stupid.
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F
Or rolling down a hill.
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C
Yeah, exactly. What are these stockpiles? Who holds them? Are they going to be released?
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F
That's a really good question. Major countries do have these things. The name describes it. All the strategic reserves. Right. Emergencies, they're held normally by individual producers. Right. So it's not like the government has literally got a big sort of cellar full of barrels somewhere in Whitehall. It doesn't work like that.
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E
It's.
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F
Individual oil and gas producers tend to have these reserves at the moment. What they're saying is, we stand ready. And that's a very deliberate thing. You know, the kind of numbers that have been talked about would have been a hefty chunk of these reserves. And they're all watching these markets very nervously, but they've watched the way they've moved and they have bounced around. We had that spike up when they opened and then they sort of settled down and bubbled around that sort of hundred dollars per barrel mark. And what they're doing is taking a bet and saying, if we are saying that we are ready, we are poised, then the markets will be reassured and that will help to put a cap on where things are when it comes to, you know, the oil price. For the moment, it seems to be working. What they don't want to do is basically sort of exhaust their firepower too quickly.
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D
Right.
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F
And that's what we're seeing at the moment. And the same goes as well, by the way, for help on energy prices as well. And that's what we heard from the Chancellor, who was talking in the Commons, and a lot of people saying, fingers crossed, this could be, you know, the start of something new. She reminded us of what had come before. So, you know, the kind of help that's been given at the moment as well, coming for energy bills in the spring, but. But. And also the freeze on. On fuel duty, for example, and said, we are watching carefully, but sort of stood back from talking about the idea of any further help. I think they're keeping their fingers crossed they can get away without it.
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B
I just. It just strikes me that obviously we need to remember there's a very real, very human cost of all of this conflict that's in the Middle East. The country's directly affected. Nobody ever wants to dismiss that in the uk, the immediate political concern, as well as all the geopolitical fallout there is, is the potential impact on the economy. And for the government, who has made the cost of L central focal point recently, they are now encountering the situation where inflation could well creep up. The Chancellor referenced that's pretty likely given what we're seeing happen. You know, yes, household energy bills won't be affected in the short term, but it's going to make people worried. And people, there's all the memory of you. What happened with the Russian invasion of Ukraine is still so fresh for so many people. It feels like it's just posing a very particular political challenge. And that's not for a second to take away from the very real, you know, human geopolitical challenges that exist around this as well.
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F
Absolutely not. No. And that is obviously the main major, you know, catastrophe in all of this. But you're absolutely right. You know, we heard the government sort of pivot slightly, didn't we, and sort of emphasize the cost of living because they realized that is what scarred people. When you talk about growth, people don't get that cost of living. They absolutely do. And this looks, as I say, likely to derail things. But it's interesting when you look at what's going on in the US as well, and you talk about the strategic aims of what Tehran is up to, you know, gasoline prices there, crossing $3 per gallon now we might look at that and go, gosh, that's actually quite reasonable. But Americans, the major, their inflation expectations, unlike the UK are shaped by what they see on the pumps. Right. So that in some ways has a bigger political impact than say, energy prices going up here. Here it's food prices we tend to notice first and foremost. But absolutely, this is the last thing the government needed. And who knows, when we get to July, if this carries on, we might need some help.
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B
Yeah.
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C
And Katya, we've been talking about these challenges in terms of pressure on prices at least since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. So I suppose that says just, just really another big headache for European leaders.
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E
It absolutely is. And I think, I mean, what you're seeing is, and the UK is very much part of this, is this feeling that Europe is facing a territorially expansionist Russia. So, you know, we've just marked the four year anniversary of the full scale invasion of Ukraine. There's generally accepted across Europe that if Russia's not stopped in Ukraine, it will set its sights on other European countries, not in terms of invasion, but spreading its influence because it wants to its mind rebalance control over Europe that it lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then there's an economically aggressive China. And then there's the best friend, the United States abroad, which is no longer predictable, should we say, many would say, a reliable friend. And so Europe has a choice. Does it act, each country individually, its relationship with the United States, like we've just seen Germany do over Iran, or does it act together in concert? Now, it has said the great, the great, the great powers of Europe have said they want to act in concert. And we saw straight after the Israeli American attacks on Iran, within hours, we saw an attempt from the big three of Europe, they called the E3. So the UK, France and Germany issuing a joint statement. So it was an effort to kind of say, here we are. And let's face it, I mean, they'd had enough time, hadn't they? It's hardly a surprise. We've all seen US military buildup in the Middle East. We've all heard Donald Trump saying, okay, Iran, if you don't give up your nuclear ambitions, we're going to be coming for you. Or there's always a question mark about what he'll actually do. But if Europe wanted to act together, and I say Europe, not the eu, it could have prepared, actually, when it came to it, it seemed fragmented, to be honest, everybody going in different directions and reacting in different ways. Again, where are their friends? Who is the friend abroad? Is this actually going to work, this crisis in the Middle east, to China's advantage? Do more Europe countries say, yes, we know we need to be careful with China, but actually it's looking a bit more reliable and stable than the United States. So we don't turn our backs on the us, but do we turn a bit more towards China? We've heard the UK saying we need to be more reliant on ourselves when it comes to energy. There's talk about more investment in green energy in the uk. China is at the forefront of green energy technology. So, you know, these are all, these are big, big, big, big, big questions. When we're all wrapped up with the day to day of what's the next thing happening in the mid. It's concerning for the electorate, it's concerning for our government.
- [15:31]
B
I wonder now with, with this war in the Middle east, how much the European countries are talking to each other. Because just thinking back to what you said, that kind of spectacle of the German chancellor sat next to President Trump while President Trump is saying not very nice things about Spain and the uk. And then most recently, you've got Emmanuel Macron out in Cyprus, while Kerma's sort of been a bit criticized for the UK government's response to Cypress. Are we sort of seeing a fragmentation on display? Are they talking behind the scenes? What' actual sense of it?
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E
Well, I.
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B
You.
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E
You can. You know what it's like. We have to have headlines to. To make people click on our articles at BBC Online, or we need to have headlines at the beginning of a podcast like this. But we all know nothing is black and white and it's shades of gray. There's a lot of fragmentation amongst European countries on display now over Iran. At the same time, there is effort to work together. Look at Cyprus, okay, the UK's been slow, they would say, not from the air, but on the seas to get to Cyprus. But we've seen Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece sending support to Cyprus. So there is a concerted effort there. European countries have been helping each other and countries in the Middle east have also been helping with the stranded tourists there to make sure that nobody's short of a meal, somebody has somewhere to sleep. You know, airports are kept open. So I think that it's neither one nor the other. Ultimately, even when we were in the eu, every country puts its fate first. That's just how it works. And that is how it will always work. That being said and accepted, there are many areas where it's in our mutual interest to support each other and work together, such as insecurity and defence, such as going forward on energy security, which is something that our government is extremely interested in. So I think it's neither give up on one, you know, don't blindly say, oh, well, Europe is going to act in concert and will be a force on this world stage where if might isn't right, at least might has decided that it's the center of attention right now. Sometimes it'll be fragmented, sometimes countries will be able to work together.
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C
One of the things we've been talking about, though, to go in a completely other direction is the relationship between. You've mentioned it, Katia, you've mentioned it there, the relationship with Washington, the relationship between European leaders and Donald Trump. And we've seen, as you've said, you've described it, you know, how there's been a lot of push and pull in that relationship. And if there's anyone who says they're putting their country first more than anyone or more often than anyone, it's certainly Donald Trump. But, Alex, the UK is a bit of a test coming up with this, doesn't it? Because the King's going on a state visit. Or is he?
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B
Well, yeah. I mean, widely, reportedly, the King is due on a state visit sometimes in April. King and Queen, as far as I understand it, although the details of these things are never sort of, you know, published until the last minute or publicized until the last minute. But that's been the wide expectation for some time. And then we had on Monday morning Ed Davy, leader of the Liberal Democrats, suggesting that that state visit should not go ahead. So Ed Davies argument, and Ed Davies clearly been trying to position himself as a person that would stand up to Donald Trump. He suggests that, that, that, that the President, given his recent comments about the UK Government, shouldn't and, and other stuff, shouldn't be given the sort of honor, if you like, of this big diplomatic state visit with the King. So that's Ed Davies argument from the Liberal Democrats. And then the briefing that happens in Westminster with the Prime Minister's official spokesman. Obviously the journalists there asked about this and said, well, is this visit going ahead or not? And the line given back was it hasn't been officially confirmed, the state visit. Now some people would read into that, oh my goodness, does that mean it's not happening? But actually that's kind of pretty familiar language around the not confirming details of this kind of high security, high profile visit until a bit nearer the time. And obviously if that visit were not to take place, and I'm not for a second suggesting that that's the case because we, we honestly have no idea, I think it would be pretty extraordinary for them to pull the plug on something like that because, you know, backfire. Absolutely, it could backfire. And obviously what the UK government has been trying to do while Donald Trump has been very publicly criticizing Keir Starmer's response to the war in Iran is just not bite back, you know, sort of tread very carefully, not be giving a running commentary, not responding to every truth social media post or, you know, trying not to worsen whatever existing tension there might be. So the notion that they, this might not go ahead because of what has happened recently, I think is, would be quite unlikely, maybe other reasons, I don't know and I'm not suggesting that's the case.
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C
And if that happens, what you're saying, what we'd be seeing would be effectively the Labour government under Keir Starmer taking a decision. We're going to cut Trump loose, we're done with this relationship. We can survive at least until the midterms in November. Assuming that President Trump's going to get a hammering or his Republican Party is going to get a hammering in the midterms, his stock will be lower after that, and there'll be a whole lot of discussion about whether or not it is now Donald Trump's Republican Party or not, and whether the era of Trump is effectively over or ending. So the question is, do you, as Keir Starmer, want to get ahead of that and look strong and look like you're making a point, or is that far too damaging to this critical security, defence and economic relationship with this very important ally, which, of course, the UK
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B
has been stressing the importance of all the way through. Even recently, even in recent days, when they have been on the brunt of criticism from President Trump, they have been stressing the importance of that security, particularly, and defense relationship with the us, and the fact it's gone on for a long time. And Keir Starmer spoke to President Trump on Sunday afternoon. They had a phone call, lasted 20 minutes, we're told. It was very constructive, you know, so there's no sign whatsoever that they want to sort of pull the plug on that. And the other kind of big thing around that, to put in the mix, is that obviously, if they were to do that through the prism of a state visit, you'd be dragging the King into something, you know what I mean? And I. I think that that would be a very big step, very, very big step for Danny Strafz.
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C
I mean, it'd be huge. It would be cutting him loose and saying this era is over. And that is a big.
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B
And I capture all of this with. Some people would have read into what's happened today with the sort of question mark over the state visit, but these things are often a little bit like. You can read into it what you will. And quite a lot of the detail is under wraps and quiet because. Because of the nature of it.
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F
And we have seen, haven't we, the fact that President Trump is quite amenable to the soft power in the form of the royals.
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B
Yeah, well, the first time, when Keir Starmer sat next to him as a sort of, you know, one of the things he did was hand over a letter with an invite from the King for Donald Trump to come here, because he recognises how important that is. So to pull that away would be. Would be huge if. Yeah, if they were to.
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C
But we're not at that stage.
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E
Just one more thing to what, Alex, you know, when you're talking about the King's visit or not to Washington, I think it's something that the Europeans are very aware of as well. Even though there is this feeling amongst European powers, including the uk, that they have to work closer together because the US has become more unpredictable. That doesn't necessarily end when Donald Trump's term at the White House ends. But there is another thought as well. First of all, not wanting to alienate Donald Trump because of Ukraine, Europe still needs the United States onside over Ukraine to try and find a durable peace in the end there. And they don't want to give him another excuse not to concentrate on that. That's number one. Number two, you do hear European voices also pointing out that perhaps, perhaps the crisis triggered by the attacks on Iran will also remind the US that the US needs its allies abroad, including in Europe, because it has needed our military bases, not just the UK's. But part of the fallout with Spain was when Spain said, nope, you can't use the two military bases here to launch attacks on Iran. So perhaps it' been a reminder to Washington that Europe isn't relevant or irrelevant after all.
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C
Well, Darshini, in a minute we're going to be joined by Ciavash Ardalan from BBC Persian to talk about the appointment of the new supreme leader in Iran, Mojtabak Khamenei. How did the markets react to that appointment?
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F
Well, there was so much going on from the markets. And I think the thing the markets really reacted to over the weekend when they reopened was the sign that, you know, that phrase, the exit ramp, you know, is anyone looking for. No, there was no sign that, you know, at any point was Trump going, I'll take that opportunity. And instead, you could see the sort of flaring up of tensions with President Trump saying, I'll have the say. And yet Iran saying, sorry, we've got our new supreme leader. And it signs like somebody who the west are not going to approve of. By all accounts, we know very little about, you know, the new supreme leader, he's never given interviews or anything like that, of course, but from what we hear, he may take an even harder line than his father. So you can see the markets thinking, right, that actually ramps up the tensions. Right. At a point. We hope that perhaps things would simmer down somewhat. Having said that, if you look at where prices are right now, that sort of hovering around 100, it's in between the kind of oil, oil, oil. I mean, sorry, it's, it's, it's in between that sort of, okay, things are going to ease and that, oh, my goodness, look at this 150. So they're in that sort of state of heightened tension. Put it that way, they could go either the way.
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C
Dari, thank you very much. Nice to speak to you.
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F
Likewise.
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B
And Katya, thank you. Lovely to speak to you. We'll all watch your do.
- [25:01]
E
Thank you. You're upon the edge.
- [25:12]
G
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- [25:43]
A
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C
Well, as we were just saying, this morning, Mujtaba Khamenei was named the new Supreme Leader of Iran. And with us here again on newscast is Siavash Ardalan, senior reporter for BBC World and BBC Persian. Hello.
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D
Good to be here. Hello.
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C
Well, we're very glad you're here, very glad because we need your help.
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B
We definitely need your help. So. So he's now been appointed the new Supreme Leader. But I just wonder if you could just take us through, I mean, almost starting from the very beginning. So you've got ayatollah the title and you've got Supreme Leader the title. Just talk us through what all that means, those different designations.
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D
Yeah. So we all need help. We even in the person feel better. Need help about, you know, find out exactly who this man is because everything we know about him has been speculation. Nothing is really confirmed. His as we came here, you, you initially told me no one has heard his voice. I mean, no one. Some people have, but the vast majority of Iranians have never seen him speak. They don't know his manner, his delivery. They have no idea. So when he begins his first public address ever, let alone as Supreme Leader, Iranians and the whole world will be, I'm sure watching very keenly just to see, you know, what his mindset is. The little that we do know about him is other than the fact that he's never held public office. So he doesn't have any executive credentials or managerial credentials in that sense. We know that he studied for many years in the holy city of Qom to become a cleric, to be a seminarian. He studied Islamic theology, basically, and he was teaching it as well. So he had a number of students. And when he talked about the ayatollah, that's when you become a grand kind of cleric, that's when you reach the highest level.
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B
But was he sort of called Ayatollah because he was in line potentially to be the supreme leader or what did he become an ayatollah because of his studies, his religious studies, being a religious cleric?
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D
He became an ayatollah just last night as soon as he became the supreme leader. So that's going to have a lot of old time clerics upset. Why person doesn't have, you know, all the theological credentials, why do you suddenly promote him from what they call Hujjat al Islam, that's the junior ayatollah, to the Ayatollah, which is the real Ayatollah. Hujat al Islam means a sign of a sign of Islam, and ayatollah means a sign of God. So he hasn't quite reach level. But now because he's a supreme leader, he will be given that title. And it's just not the title of being ayatollah, it's the title of the Supreme Leader of Iran, which carries with it absolute power. And I don't mean in a figurative way absolute power. Formally, you, whatever you say goes. Your word is the word of God. Finished?
- [29:04]
C
Well, I want to just put one newscaster's question to you, Siyavash, on this topic before we get into a bit more about who he is and what more we do know about him. Although, as you say, it's a bit sketchy. Anne has been in touch via email. Thanks very much, Anne. Anne says. Hi, newscast. What are the separate roles of the President of Iran and the supreme leader? She says, AKA ayatollah. But you've just explained that ayatollah is a different thing. But let's focus on the core of that question. There's the Supreme Leader and then there's the president. How do they work together or not? The supreme leader by definition must be above president because the clue's in the name.
- [29:42]
B
Right?
- [29:42]
D
Yeah. So, and this is a crash course on Iranian political structure. You have two institutions, if you will, in Iran. One is elected and one is appointed. The elected bit is the president, the parliament, where people actually go and they can vote for who they want to become the next president, or who they want to become their MP from different provinces. And then you have the appointed part. That's where the Supreme Leader appoints the head of the very most powerful institution. He's the chief commander, so he can appoint the head of the Revolutionary Guards, the head of the regular army, the head of the judiciary. And he also validates the vote of the people as well. So theoretically, he cannot validate it. So in a sense, it all boils down to his authority and his power. The President derives his authority from the vote of the people. He derives his authority from God. But at the same time, that assembly of Experts which get to choose him, which they did last night, consisting of 87 clerical men, they are themselves elected by the people. So they get to decide who the next cleric is. But guess what? When people vote for them, those candidates that are allowed to stand for election as members of the assembly of Experts, they can only stand once they get their stamp of approval by another clerical body whose heads are appointed by the Supreme Leader. So it's checks and balances, just completely
- [31:17]
B
turned on its head going back to who he is. So we know now he is the Supreme Leader you already mentioned. We actually don't know a lot about him. People, very few people would have heard him speak. There's not a lot of photos, there's not a lot of images. And in this, like, day and age, it kind of seems extraordinary that there's someone that's just been given this. This all powerful role that so little is known about. Was that a sort of deliberate thing, or how has that come about?
- [31:41]
D
Well, there's always speculation about whether he would succeed or not. And we've had reports that his father was against this, because, as you remember, this regime came about after the 1979 revolution, which overthrew a monarchy. So their whole ethos was, you know, to be against hereditary monarchical systems.
- [31:59]
B
We don't want to be like the people that came before.
- [32:01]
E
Four.
- [32:01]
D
Exactly.
- [32:02]
C
And now this is number three of, well, two of this family.
- [32:06]
D
Absolutely. And that's why there was some opposition within the assembly of Experts, within that domestic political wrangling among the people, within the establishment. A lot of clerics and other people were arguing, well, we don't want that. We don't want a hereditary system. Plus, his father was against it. And plus, according to some other unconfirmed reports, he himself didn't want to want to become the Supreme Leader. It was kind of pushed on him. But then, on the other hand, the People who did vote for him, they said, look, we're under very unusual circumstances. We're fighting an existential battle against the US And Israel. So this is not ordinary times. And let's pick someone who has good connection to the security establishment and also the Revolutionary Guards, because the Revolutionary Guards that really they hold, hold the main power. If it's not for the clerical establishment, Iran would be a military dictatorship. So they have the power. And if there's anyone to command enough respect, it would have been him rather than some old, lesser known cleric whom the Revolutionary Guard course might not even listen to. So if there is to be any major decisions made in terms of ceasefire, if there is to be one, or just taking the country in a different direction, instituting reform, he would be the guy who would carry the authority and the respect to do it.
- [33:27]
C
If, if he stays in the role. And let's be honest, if he survives. I mean, how do we know? Donald Trump's described him as a lightweight. Before he was appointed, Donald Trump said he did not want him to get this job. I mean, no wonder you don't want the job. I mean, surely the level of risk here is colossal that President Trump just decides to try to come after you as well.
- [33:50]
D
In this attack on Monday, not only did the Supreme Leader, who is his father died, but his mother died, his wife died and his child died as well. So he lost all of them. And instead what he gained was absolute power. Yes, he is the next target of, is of the Israelis. I don't know what, what the thinking is in Israeli circles. They might think, okay, we're just going to wipe out whoever. And they've said that whoever replaces him. But at the same time, if they do, I'm sure the assembly of Experts have their next candidates in line. So it might be a humiliation for Iran because Israel will be again projecting its tactical and intelligence power inside Iran, which is very pervasive. But then it will also might showcase Iran's resilience. No matter how many people you take out, someone else will take their place. And that's exactly what happened with him. Because I've seen a lot of Western critics in the US And Israel say, okay, Donald Trump attacked Iran just to get rid of the old Supreme Leader and replace him with a younger version. And that's exactly what his supporters last night when they were out in the streets under bombardments, that's what they were chanting. I won't say the chant in English because it doesn't rhyme as well, it doesn't sound as well, but they were saying, God, the Lord has blessed us with a gift, with a much younger, rejuvenated Khamenei.
- [35:18]
B
It's interesting because that was always the sort of the. The critics of what Donald Trump and has chosen to do here always said it was a source of naivety to assume that if you just took out the Supreme Leader, that the regime would collapse. And it's almost proving its resilience in some way with this kind of new appointment. But you touched upon some over there. I just wonder what the reaction of the people of Iran has been to this.
- [35:40]
D
Okay, so depends on who you speak to. Let's start with those minority of people, let's say estimated to be between 10 to 20% of the population, who are supportive of the regime, who are regime loyalists, the hardcore base. They've been out in the streets under bombardment across Iran ever since that attack took place, especially after it was announced that the Supreme Leader was killed in those attacks. They were on the moon. They were very jubilant. Last night, you had scenes of celebration and jubilation, and upon hearing the news that he was the one that was chosen, they broke out into chants and cheers and that. So that's one side of the society. And then you have the majority of Iranians who have disdain for the regime. Why? Because just two months ago, if you remember, we had huge protests in Iran which saw the killing of thousands of people. The figures fluctuate, anywhere from 10,000 to 30,000 in a span of 48 hours. So you can imagine the trauma that it left on the minds, on the collective psyche of Iranians, and that still a lot of families are grieved. It was a grieving nation. So hence when the Israeli and the US attacked, they were attacking a nation that was just in total grief and was suffering from a sense of loss. They were obviously very happy when they heard that the Supreme Leader was killed, naturally, because it was Supreme Leader who ordered those killings. But they were also very upset. It was almost like a slap in their face to have the son of that same person take the helms of power. Hence, on one hand, you had those celebrations, and then if you turn your head the other way, you had people chanting from the rooftops and the windows, oh, death to Mujtaba Khamenei.
- [37:29]
C
And Iran is not just struggling with grief. It's not just struggling under bombardment. It's struggling. And this will be no surprise economically as well, isn't it? How badly are we? What can you. What. I know it's so hard to get information. We Were talking in newscast last week about with Adam about how difficult it is to get information out. What do you know about the state of the economy? Talk of hyperinflation, corruption as well, which may be a slightly separate. But what do we know?
- [37:57]
D
Well, before the war there was. We had good connections because the Internet was up and running and we knew what was going on. But don't forget the that same protests that I was talking about in January which led to that crackdown. It began from economic grievances. It was the people in the bazaars and the merchants who took out in the street. And then it spread into nationwide protests. Yes, inflation at that time was estimated to be 60%. It was rampant. And that was because of a dual or triple currency system where the dollar was exchanged at a government rate and then also at a private rate. So people used to make a lot of money through their connections to get something, the government rebate rate of the currency and then sell it on the private market and make lots of money. Hence a lot of corruption. And that's really driven Iranians just up the wall and economic conditions become dire. Poverty has doubled in the past 20 years. And also a big part of it, of course, has to do with the US Secondary sanctions, because it's exacerbated mismanagement, exacerbated corruption as well. And that's exactly what the authors of those policies had in mind because they wanted to drive Iranians to the point where they would revolt against their government. And that's exactly what happened. They revolted against the government. The government killed them. So that gave sort of the moral upper hand to the US And Israel and everyone else to carry out that attack. After the war, the prices have even risen higher, obviously, the foodstuff. But there's no shortage because the government was preparing for all this. So they stored the storage houses, the warehouses with food. There's enough food stuff for months to go. And Iran has halted all food exports as well. So there is no issue accessing food and accessing energy, but it's just because it's become so expensive that it might be out of people's reach.
- [39:45]
B
So just ever so quickly then, given all of that, all of those challenges that are happening inside Iran as well as everything else that's happening more widely, do you get a sense of what kind of leader much to Bahamani is going to be?
- [39:58]
D
I think now, for now, he's going to sound very hardline. He's going to sound very uncompromising, as he has to. The government's line has been we won't accept any more ceasefire offers until the US stops attacking us. We are not stopping this war. And their strategy is to be in it for the long game. They obviously can't match militarily Israel and the US's power. So their strategy is his resilience, just taking the blows and just inflicting enough damage, economic damage. The price of oil, the barrel of oil is not like $110 or something. That's the strategy. So I think he will continue with that. He will, you know, he will vow that Iran will stand up to as long as it takes. But beyond that, that the important thing is what would happen beyond that. And if there is any kind of overtures by the us, any unilateral declaration of victory by Donald Trump, suddenly wake up one day and says we achieved all our objectives. Okay, bye bye. Over to you Iranian people. You know, do what you want. It's important what he does after that. Will he sort of be the next King Jong Un of Iran or will he be the next Ben Salman of Iran? Who knows?
- [41:13]
C
It's so fascinating. I really, really like having your insight. I've learned, learned a lot as I had all last week on Newscast as well. Thank you very much. Nice to speak to you.
- [41:24]
B
Thanks so much.
- [41:25]
D
Thank you.
- [41:25]
C
And that's it from this episode of Newscast. Adam is away all week, Alex and I are here and we're going to try to just break down what's happening in Iran.
- [41:35]
B
Yeah.
- [41:35]
C
Bit by bit through the week, aren't we?
- [41:37]
B
Just try and really understand different elements of it. So if there's anything that you particularly want to know about, any questions that you've got about what's happening because there's a of lot, lot. There's a lot to take in. Then just drop us a line. We really want to hear from you.
- [41:48]
C
Yeah, do get in touch. But that's it for now.
- [41:50]
B
Bye bye bye.
- [41:51]
C
Newscast.
- [41:52]
B
Newscast from the BBC.
- [41:54]
H
Thank you so much for making it to the end of Newscast. You clearly copyright Chris Mason Ooze Stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Don't forget, you can email us anytime. It's newscastbc.co.uk and if you would like to join our Discord community to talk about everything Newscast related, there is a link in the description of this podcast. And don't be scared. It's super easy to click on it and then get set up. Or you can WhatsApp us on 033-01-239480 and I promise you we read and listen to every single message. Thanks for listening to this podcast by.