Newscast (BBC News)

Episode: Will Starmer Help Trump In The War?

Date: March 15, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode delves deep into the ongoing geopolitical tensions sparked by US, Israeli, and Iranian military actions in the Gulf, and explores the roles and responses of the UK and Prime Minister Keir Starmer amidst growing pressure to participate. The conversation is anchored by presenters Laura Kuenssberg and Paddy O’Connell, with political analysis from Henry Zeffman. The Newscast team also recaps key political debates within the UK government, focusing on Labour’s shifting position and energy market shocks. Notable guests include Admiral Lord West and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Evolving Middle East Conflict and the UK’s Response

[03:27-04:05]

• Recap of fresh Iranian, Israeli, and US strikes in the Gulf.
• President Trump’s request for allied naval support in the Straits of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil transport.
• Contradictory US messaging: initially dismissing the need for UK help, then requesting support—a “reverse ferret” move.

[04:22-05:12]

• Henry Zeffman: Highlights “whiplash” experienced by UK and other allies navigating Trump’s unpredictable demands.
  • “It does underscore the kind of whiplash that the UK Government is feeling...in how to deal with President Trump.”

2. UK Political Reactions, Starmer’s Dilemmas, and War Decision-Making

[06:13-06:55]

• Admiral Lord West: Advocates for UK engagement, cautioning that avoidance only deepens later involvement.
  • Quote: "You can't avoid wars sometimes, and trying to avoid them makes you more involved."

[07:02-08:25]

• Discussion of internal UK government debate: should prior restraint give way to active participation? Labour feels vindicated in Starmer’s measured handling thus far.
• Henry Zeffman: Points to shifting UK approach, especially allowing US strikes from British bases.

[09:55-11:46]

• The war’s impact on Labour politics: prior malaise over Starmer’s leadership is now superseded by the war's demands, cementing his position (for now).

  • “It was very, very hard to find anyone in the Labor Party who would say Keir Starmer would be definitely leading them into the next general election, the war for this time has shifted that…” – Paddy O’Connell

• Henry Zeffman: References Ed Miliband’s previous comment: “A month or so ago, the Labour Party looked over the precipice and decided not to change leader.”

3. Energy, Oil Prices, and Government Support

[12:07-13:35]

• Interview highlights with Energy Secretary Ed Miliband:
  • Government is prepared to step in if energy bills spike, though support is unlikely to be universal.
  • If oil prices remain high, fuel duty increases planned for September could be postponed.

[13:35-14:39]

• Ed Miliband remains hesitant on whether the US has a clear plan, subtly expressing doubts about American strategy.
  • Quote: "Forgive me, Laura, I'm not, you know, tempting as it is to sort of talk about this in a public setting... The us. Well, the US made its decisions to begin to launch these attacks on Iran..."

[15:05-16:04]

• Henry Zeffman: Points to Cabinet discussions: Ed Miliband pushed for caution. Strong implication that Starmer echoed this in Parliament, requiring clear plans before UK participation.

4. The National and Political Economics of Crisis Response

[19:25-21:45]

• Discussion on government plans for heating oil support—expected tens of millions directed through local councils, notably for Northern Ireland’s high dependency.

• Support for energy bills will remain under review; intervention likely but not on Liz Truss’s prior universal scale.

• Henry Zeffman: Raises the argument: Can the government afford to keep “socializing” every macroeconomic shock?

[22:47-24:35]

• Reflection on the shift from universal support in earlier crises (Covid furlough, Liz Truss’s energy relief) to more targeted, means-tested assistance.

  • Laura Kuenssberg: “What you're effectively doing is redistributing wealth from the future to the present.”

  • Paddy O’Connell: Cites officials: “Sometimes you make the wrong decisions for the right reasons.”

5. The Volatility of Modern Governance

[26:06-28:25]

• The “peace dividend” is over; the new normal is costly crisis management and unpredictable macro shocks.

• Balancing defense spending, cost-of-living relief, and economic growth with a constrained budget is the new, near-impossible task for UK leadership.

  • Laura Kuenssberg: “How then for a government that says it wants to help people with the cost of living and grow the economy? Well, if the oil price keeps spiking, economic growth ain't coming anytime soon.”

• Henry Zeffman: Notes current public anger, volatility, and challenges facing Starmer compared to previous Labour governments.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Admiral Lord West [06:37]:
  “You can't avoid wars sometimes, and trying to avoid them makes you more involved.”

• Henry Zeffman [07:02]:
  “But now the war has been launched. Ought that to change the way in which the UK approaches it?...they feel vindicated. They feel like Keir Starmer has made the right calls...”

• Paddy O’Connell [09:55]:
  “The real politic of having a conflict in the Middle east has changed the calculus inside the Labour Party about what to do about their very unpopular with the public leader.”

• Ed Miliband via Laura Kuenssberg [14:05]:
  “Forgive me, Laura, I'm not, you know, tempting as it is to sort of talk about this in a public setting...”
  Analysis: His hesitation is interpreted as a clear sign that the UK government doubts the coherence of the US strategy.

• Laura Kuenssberg [22:47] (on “snake oil” fiscal support):
  “What you're effectively doing is redistributing wealth from the future to the present. This business of holding on to nanny when the bills go up is not possible for us to keep funding.”

• Former Number 10 official [25:52] (quoted):
  “Maybe it’s just really expensive now to be normal, which I just thought was really interesting. The world is so volatile, it just actually means things are more expensive.”

Important Timestamps

• 03:27: Summary of Middle East conflict escalation and Allied requests.
• 04:05: Trump’s inconsistent positions on UK involvement.
• 06:37: Admiral Lord West’s doctrine of engagement.
• 07:02: UK Government’s evolving calculations on joining US-led war.
• 09:55: The war’s stabilizing (for now) effect on Labour leadership politics.
• 12:07: Ed Miliband interview; government position on energy bills and support.
• 14:05: Ed Miliband hedges on whether US has a clear plan.
• 19:25: Heating oil support package and new government attitudes to macro-shocks.
• 22:47: Ethical and fiscal perils of perpetual emergency support.
• 26:06: The end of the peace dividend and the rise of permanent crisis management.
• 28:25: Starmer’s tough political environment and the challenge of communication.

What to Watch for This Week

• Rachel Reeves’ upcoming announcement on heating oil support and broader signals on energy support strategy ([29:21]).
• Ongoing debates in the government and Opposition about whether and how the UK should further support the US militarily—and the political ramifications thereof.
• The evolution of the government’s stance on means-tested versus universal relief ahead of potential new energy price shocks.

Tone & Style

The discussion retains the BBC’s signature blend of clarity, analytic sharpness, and dry wit. The presenters often interject with candid, sometimes sardonic asides, especially about the unpredictability of both Trump’s and the UK government’s positions, as well as self-effacing humour regarding predictions and political machinations.

Summary prepared for listeners who want to grasp the episode’s nuances and policy implications without tuning in.