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- [00:00]
Adam Fleming
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- [00:06]
Ray Winstone
Hello, it's Ray Winstone. I'm here to tell you about my podcast on BBC Radio 4, History's Toughest Heroes. I've got stories about the pioneers, the rebels, the outcasts who define tough.
- [00:21]
Podcast Narrator
And that was the first time that anybody ever ran a car up that fast with no tires on. It almost feels like your eyeballs are going to come out of your head.
- [00:28]
Ray Winstone
Tough enough for you? Subscribe to History's Toughest Heroes wherever you get your podcast.
- [00:38]
Adam Fleming
Hello. Hope you had a good weekend. I've been thinking a lot today about those episodes of old newscasts we did a couple of weeks ago, which were about the Oslo Accords being agreed in 1993 with that famous handshake on the White House lawn. And this was a real moment of hope for peace in the Middle east between Israel and the Palestinians. And it's sort of been feeling a bit like that again this week. And I don't mean a two state solution. I don't mean a permanent end to the conflict. I because we're in very different times and it's very different circumstances and I don't want to be distasteful and sort of compare two very different moments. I just mean the sense of optimism in the air that something very destructive is maybe going to be sort of brought to an end. And the disruptive thing is the war between Israel and Gaza. And it does feel that the negotiations or the talks which are getting underway in Egypt today as we record this episode could be a step forward. At least that's how lots of observers are assessing it this week. Right. Why am I going on about this and what is actually happening in Egypt? We will explain all on this episode.
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Lys Doucet
Of newscast, newscast, newscast from the BBC.
- [01:52]
Adam Fleming
Fat boy sliver me in the classroom.
- [01:53]
Tristan Redman
Doing our violin lessons.
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Adam Fleming
I was the tattletale in the class.
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Ray Winstone
Can I have an apology, please? I sure almost nobody that daddy has.
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Adam Fleming
To sometimes do strong language.
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Tristan Redman
Next time in Moscow.
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Chris Mason
I feel delulu with no salulu.
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Adam Fleming
Take me down to Downing Street. Let's go have a tour.
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Tristan Redman
Blimey.
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Adam Fleming
Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio. The second half of this episode is going to be about the latest French prime minister to resign because yes, it has happened again. But first of all, we're going to talk about the negotiations that are getting underway right now as we record this episode in Charmel Sheikh in Egypt between representatives of the Israeli government government and representatives of Hamas. Although they're not talking directly. This is another one of those talks where it's mediated between the two of them and they're not in the same room. And the focus of these talks is the peace plan that Donald Trump issued a couple of weeks ago. And that involves lots and lots of different categories of issues, but the main one that both sides seem to be reaching agreement on is the imminent release of the remaining Israeli hostages and. And the exchange of Palestinian prisoners who are being held in Israel in return. So there's quite a lot to get our heads around. But actually, I think it's worth doing because this is going to be so huge this week, especially if it goes the way lots of diplomats sort of sense maybe it is going. So the person who's going to help us understand it all, of course, is chief international correspondent Lys Doucet, who joins me from Tel Aviv. Hi, Lys.
- [03:22]
Lys Doucet
Sorry not to be with you in this studio, Adam, but I'm joining you here from a very evocative place, very emotional place, hostages Square, right in the heart of the Israeli city of Tel Aviv.
- [03:35]
Adam Fleming
We'll talk about the negotiations in a second, but I'm just thinking of the significance of where you are right now and also the week that it is and the date that it is.
- [03:44]
Lys Doucet
Yes, it really strikes you when you come into the square. I'm just looking around, as I did, and there's this huge clock, Adam, and it's 730 days, 12 minutes, 45 seconds. That's how long the hostages have been in captivity. So when I came into the square, the first thing I thought was, and I mustn't be the only one, when is that clock going to come to a stop? Because all of the hostages have come home. I have to say that this is the moment of the greatest optimism, cautious optimism, but the greatest hope that this could be the week during the Jewish festival of Sukkot, that the hostages could come home and if it's not this week, shortly afterwards. But such is the nature of this war that there is also a risk that it could all unravel. But as we speak, those talks are getting underway in the Egyptian city of Sharm El Sheikh. Red Sea city.
- [04:45]
Adam Fleming
Yeah. And we're recording this bit of this episode of newscast at quarter past four on Monday UK time. And just over the last couple of hours, the delegations have been flying into that Egyptian that you mentioned. There lies just in terms of the process, is this another round of those indirect negotiations where Israel and Hamas are kind of in different rooms and the mediators are shuttling between them and refining.
- [05:08]
Lys Doucet
The proposals as they go, yes, indirect talks, proximity talks. Of course, there are no direct talks between Israel and Hamas. So messages are passed between the mediators. What is significant about this round, Adam, is that there have been many rounds of talks when the Israeli delegation wasn't sufficiently high level. It didn't have the power to really negotiate. It came with messages, it listened, and then it came back to Israel. This time, the Israeli delegation, which we understand has now arrived in Sharm El Sheikh, is headed by Ron Dermer, who is the Strategic Affairs Minister and a very close confidant of Prime Minister Netanyahu. And that really matters. Interesting. There is a huge Hamas delegation as well, and the Hamas delegation is led by Halil Al Haya, and he was the target of that assassination attempt by Israel when they fired into the Qatari capital, Doha, in an attempt to assassinate senior members of Hamas. So there they are in the same city, sitting down for these proximity negotiations. There's the Qatari mediators, are there the Egyptian mediators. And we understand, at least the last report was that the American negotiators, President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son in law, Jared Kushner, who seems to be playing an increasingly important role on the Mid east front, just like he did in President Trump's first term, he's also expected to arrive on Wednesday. Now, whether that's because they've said, okay, right, let's get the Arab meteors, let's let them get through the details and then we'll arrive when we think there's a deal to clinch. But so the, it seems to be a phase, a phase process.
- [06:57]
Adam Fleming
I can see why that the cast list and the choreography is making people feel so, so hopeful this time around. What's a way of thinking about what the basis of these negotiations or indirect talks actually are? Because I see a lot of people saying, oh, Donald Trump's 20 point plan from a few days ago, some people say it's got 21 points is the basis of it. Is that a useful way of thinking about it? Is that the blueprint we're talking about here?
- [07:21]
Lys Doucet
Well, let me begin by saying that the most significant difference in this round of talks is that President Trump is now fully focused on these negotiations. He is. For the first time, if you looked at the White House account, they are posting photographs of this square where I am now. Right now it's quiet because the Jewish festival of Sokkot is getting underway this evening. But President Trump posted a photograph where this square was jammed packed, people spilled out into the streets beyond and they were, there was a big, big flag in the middle and it said now or never. President Trump tweeted that. And that was to say, I am with you. I am going to get those hostages home. And here he has said he wants it to happen in a few days in that 20 point plan which you mentioned, which I have to emphasize isn't a detailed blueprint to get to somewhere that you could call peace that is way, way down. But it's a set of vague principles, if you like, that should govern the next steps. But he said in that one of the few details which was included was that once Israel and Hamas agree to this 20 point plan, that the hostages should be should come home within 72 hours and of course exchange for 250 Palestinians, most of them convicted of killing Israelis, as well as some more than a thousand who'd been arrested during the Gaza war. So but Prime Minister Netanyahu said he wants this all done before the end of the Sukkot holiday. So that would be by the end of next week. Again, there's cautious hope. So that is one of the main differences. The last time there was this hope, which was just before he came into office, where before he even returned to the White House, he sent his administration. You had the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration negotiating together with the Israelis and Hamas. And it resulted in the ceasefire deal which had begun on January 19 and which Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu then pulled out of in March. This is the second very, very serious effort.
- [09:32]
Adam Fleming
So in terms of the Trump plan, which kind of is and also isn't the basis of the negotiations, let's drill down into some of the elements, at least that were in that. So you mentioned the hostage release. Where do you think we've got to on releasing the hostages and exchanging them for Palestinian prisoners? Is that, I mean, are both sides almost signed on the dotted line as far as that's concerned?
- [09:53]
Lys Doucet
In the statements which were released both by Hamas and by Israel, both very carefully crafted, nobody, not even Hamas, wants to be seen to say no to President Trump, especially not now. So they focused on what they agree on in that 20 point plan for Hamas. That was the release. And it's a huge concession by Hamas to say we're going to release all of the prisoners living and dead. That's about 48 people. 20 are believed to be alive. We Prime Minister Netanyahu also said we will work with President Trump on what he called the first phase of this 20 point plan. When you get beyond that, there's huge Disagreements which could yet break this whole process down. But for now, the focus is on these hostages and prisoners. Just before I joined you, I checked with Israeli colleagues. They are discussing the list of 25 Palestinian prisoners. Very difficult for Israel to release some of them because it's very controversial. They've, as Ezra would say, they have blood on their hands. And Hamas, we've been told, are now looking, trying to search for the hostages which are in their hands or in the hands of Islamic Jihad. They have cautioned it may be difficult to find all the remains immediately. Some of them will have been buried in areas now under Israeli military control. Some of them may be under mounds and mounds of rubble. But it seems they, they can find the 20 living hostages to at least get the process started. So that seems to be underway, Adam, and we'll wait and see how soon we'll get an announcement about when that process can start. The question we're asking is President Trump put out this vague map which would be the temporary withdrawal line for Israeli forces. Hamas doesn't accept that map because it's, it still puts Israeli forces in control of the majority of the land of the Gaza Strip, and It means some 900,000 Palestinians can't return home. How much of a stumbling block is this going to be? They've been talking about these details in recent days as well, so let's see how quickly they can advance.
- [12:02]
Adam Fleming
And what about this idea of a new kind of government for Gaza, a new administration that wouldn't have Hamas as playing a part of, of it? Where are the two sides on that?
- [12:13]
Lys Doucet
Okay, so then the next step is going to be, of course, a ceasefire. And there are members of Prime Minister Netanyahu's cabinet, mostly the far right wing ministers, who have kept saying, no, no, no, you've got to keep negotiating under fire. You've got to keep the war going. Prime Minister Netanyahu finds himself now caught between President Trump on one side and his right wing ministers on the other. Seems to understand he's just got to say yes for now to President Trump. So hopefully there will be a ceasefire. And Hamas, of course, says they can't. Unless there is a ceasefire, they won't be able to go and locate and bring all the hostages out without them, fearing that they themselves could come under Israeli attack. Then the issue comes, well, who's going to run Gaza? And Hamas has accepted that it will be technocrats who will choose. The technocrats will say some of them have some vague relationship to the Palestinian Authority or to Hamas. Those efforts must already have Been underway for some time to locate technical people who can actually run an area which, let's be clear, Gaza now lies in utter ruin. We're already hearing reports of bulldozers going in, starting to clear the rubble. This is a task of reconstruction, of providing essentials for Gazans who've been living with so little for so long. And of course, there's the aid that's supposed to start coming in at much greater scale and pace. So the technocrats will be put in charge, working with the international community. Then after that, it gets more, it gets more difficult and dangerous.
- [13:48]
Adam Fleming
And is there any sign that Hamas is willing to give up their arms and their armed struggle? Because that was another big part of Donald Trump's plan and a part that lots of observers said, well, Hamas could never sign up to because that would be Hamas kind of giving up on its entire existence.
- [14:05]
Lys Doucet
So Hamas is supposed to give up the guns, give up the power and also get up and go. They're supposed to go into exile. President Trump was asked in a. Such as the world we live in. He did an interview with cnn, which was by texts, texts on telephone in which he was asked, well, what if the Hamas doesn't leave? And he responded, as he often does, complete obliteration. It was said they've not. So there's. Those discussions are ongoing. There's not any clear indication. We do know they don't want to give up their guns. So there seems to be a discussion, well, what if you distinguish between heavy weapons and smaller arms? Because, because during this two years of war, Hamas is not just in a battle with Israel, it's also more in a battle with these other tribes and clans and mafia groups, some of which Israel has admitted it's backing. Some of them, there's been clashes recently. So it's got its own personal protection to think about. So these are really big issues. But I have to say I was in New York last week, that was the week where President Trump had a meeting which is now being described as a turning point, when he met with Arab and Islamic leaders, including his key Gulf allies, to talk about the Gaza war. And afterwards, speaking to several of the foreign ministers, they said, listen, let's just end the war, get the hostages home, get the prisoners out. Let's start there and then we'll get on to the more difficult, difficult issues. Because you may remember, Adam, that when Prime Minister Netanyahu was standing right next to President, when President Trump revealed this 20 point plan, when Prime Minister Netanyahu came out of it, he was interviewed by Israeli media. And he said, one, there will never be a Palestinian state and two, our Israeli forces are going to continue to occupy some part of the Gaza Strip.
- [15:58]
Adam Fleming
But Lis, what you're doing, I mean, it's always amazing to chat to you, but what you're doing amazingly today is taking the kind of, the big, kind of titanic struggle that is going on in the region and also linking it to the fact that there's just some very detailed processy negotiations that are quite sort of practical going on as well. Like both those things exist at the same time, like the big stuff and the kind of the detail stuff.
- [16:24]
Lys Doucet
President Trump, as it's often been said, doesn't get involved in the details. The details don't interest him. When he talks about being the deal maker, being the peacemaker, he says stop the fighting, bring the hostages home. He doesn't. And he wants things to happen quickly. That's why he makes these ultimatums in capital letters. And that is why, much to the surprise and anger of Israeli leaders, most of all, Prime Minister Netanyahu, I think, was quite stunned to see that when Hamas put out this yes, but statement which was carefully crafted, no doubt under huge pressure by the Qataris and the Egyptians, no doubt crafted with input from them, only focusing on the points where it agreed with President Trump, as we've been saying, the release of the hostages, a technocratic government ignoring or sidestepping all the rest. Within an hour, President Trump was in the White House. The cameras are being set up. Hamas is interested in peace. President Trump's said, you know, just saying, right, let's go, everyone's interested in peace. We're going to go and get peace. Peace. We're not talking peace now. We're talking ceasefire, hostage release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, the beginning of what are likely to be very difficult drawn out talks about the future of Gaza. But the most important thing, Adam, is that after two years of this grievous war, of this intense, unprecedented suffering of Palestinians, of the agony of the hostage families that got this situation is ever closer to ending this chapter and beginning another. And that is what matters now.
- [18:06]
Adam Fleming
Well, Lise, thank you very much for your analysis. And I'm just thinking back actually to the last time we were probably sat in this studio, which was when we were with our colleague Jane Corbin doing that episode of old newscast about the, the Oslo accords being kind of handshakes agreed on the lawn of the White House back in the early 90s. Are there any parallels with that, that moment? Because that seemed like a really hopeful moment where it felt like there was going to be a leap forward towards a more peaceful situation. And of course, it's a completely different situation now. But I'm just wondering if there's any kind of, kind of similar vibes this time round. And I hope that's not a sort of offensive way of putting it.
- [18:43]
Lys Doucet
It's a really, really great question, Adam, but let us say that so many years on from that absolutely extraordinary moment on the White House lawn where Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat, after a moment's hesitation, old warriors and arch enemies shaking hands for peace and lit the fire of people, Israelis and Palestinians, daring to hope they could live together. Israel is a very different country now. All too much has happened. The Palestinian society is a very different society. The world knows all too much about the dangers of peacemaking and about war breaking out. I think people are much more pragmatic now. And right now it's just step by step, step away from war and towards peace. But it will be a very long and very, very rocky road.
- [19:46]
Adam Fleming
Lys, thank you very much.
- [19:48]
Lys Doucet
Thank you, Adam.
- [19:55]
Adam Fleming
Now, as promised, Sebastian Lecornaux, did you know who he was? Had you got used to the fact that he was the French Prime Minister? Well, this morning on Monday, he resigned, having only been in the role for about three weeks, which means he's about sort of a third of a Michel Barnier. But it is continuing the trend of French prime ministers not lasting very long. In fact, it's accelerating the trend of French prime ministers not lasting very long. Let's find out what is going on and what this means. Well, for French politics in general and the presidency of Emmanuel Macron, I'm pleased to say. I'm joined here in the studio by my new colleague, Tristan Redman, who is the co host of the Global Story, which is kind of like newscast's international cousin.
- [20:36]
Tristan Redman
Yes, thank you. Thank you.
- [20:37]
Adam Fleming
But much younger.
- [20:38]
Tristan Redman
Much younger. Only a few weeks old. Yeah, a few weeks old. Thank you for having me.
- [20:42]
Adam Fleming
No, thanks for coming in. And also it's great because you are now on tap as a French political and cultural expert.
- [20:48]
Tristan Redman
I would be thrilled. I'd be delighted.
- [20:50]
Adam Fleming
And is that because you, you lived and worked in France for a long.
- [20:53]
Tristan Redman
I've lived most. I am French. You can't tell from my accent, but I've lived most of my life in France and I reported from Paris for 20 years or so.
- [21:01]
Adam Fleming
Oh, perfect.
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Tristan Redman
Yeah, happy to come and help.
- [21:03]
Adam Fleming
Great. Well, the Global Story's because you now can't work on it right now is our game. But I'm sure, I'm sure you'll be doing an episode of this later on. Also joining us again is Marion Soletti, who is Politico's editor at large in France. Hello, Marion.
- [21:17]
Marion Soletti
Hello.
- [21:17]
Adam Fleming
Just explain where you are right now.
- [21:19]
Marion Soletti
I'm right outside the buildings of the national assembly in Paris where national mps are holding a meeting right now with Marine Le Pen on their next step. You know, what, what are the next day going to look like?
- [21:35]
Tristan Redman
Marion, did you see Marine Le Pen arriving with her cat?
- [21:39]
Marion Soletti
Yes, I saw the cat, actually. It's an adorable kitten. It's like brown and black and it's really, really small. It was in his travel. In his travel cage.
- [21:46]
Adam Fleming
Tristan, what's the deal with the cat?
- [21:48]
Tristan Redman
I don't totally know. But Marion, is it because it's a kitten that needs feeding and so she takes it everywhere or something?
- [21:53]
Marion Soletti
Yeah, that's my understanding. I mean, Marine Le Pen has been a long time cat lover. She has several cats and this one is really, really small. And so she's reportedly carrying it everywhere to feed it during the day.
- [22:05]
Adam Fleming
Tristan, just explain to us then, Sebastian Locorno. So the latest prime minister to go, just how long has he been in post and what had he been trying to achieve in that time?
- [22:13]
Tristan Redman
Three weeks he's been in post and there was a big question about whether or not he would actually find anyone 18 names to agree to be in his government. And he really struggled. It's taken him three weeks. And I mean, so he was appointed by Emmanuel Macron after Francois Bairu, the previous prime minister, was voted out in a vote of no confidence three weeks ago. And so La Cornue had to find a government and then get them installed and then get a budget passed by the end of the year. And on Sunday night, He named his 18 people. And then things very quickly started to fall apart when it appeared that some of the people who were named were not very happy actually about having been named under the conditions that they were nominated in. And then I was shocked this morning, very early to find out that he had already resigned. So I feel like probably less than 12 hours after he nominated the government, so now France is in huge turmoil again.
- [23:13]
Adam Fleming
And so, Marion, why did this happen all so swiftly?
- [23:16]
Marion Soletti
Yeah, it was quite the unraveling. So the thing that really kind of made everything fall apart was the presence in the government of Bruno Le Maire, who was a former economy minister and who has been kind of blamed by the Conservatives who are allied with Macron in the outgoing government for the current public finance crisis. He was called back as Defense minister and that infuriated the Conservatives and threatened to pull out. And so Le Cornu in a way kind of preempted their move by resigning.
- [23:51]
Adam Fleming
Oh, that's interesting. So, Tristan, it was more of a kind of personnel issue rather than, well, like budget policy issue, which is what should be the downfall of the previous prime ministers.
- [24:00]
Tristan Redman
Y. The key person in all of this is actually the Interior minister who's a guy called Bruno Retailleux. And Retailleur claims that he was misled about the presence of Le Maire in the government. He said that he met with Lecornu on Sunday and that Lecornue never mentioned to him that Le Maire was going to be reappointed to the government and that he would never have joined if he'd known. And then when the 18 names were announced, he suddenly realized and. And it was retailer's involvement then that started to un the whole thing.
- [24:33]
Adam Fleming
So Mario, let me get this right then. The budget issue, which is what has stymied all the last few previous prime ministers, the Cornu never even got to that.
- [24:43]
Marion Soletti
Well, he had sort of a plan. He had made concessions already, trying to solidify support from the Conservatives and extending some tiny olive branches to the Socialists, but that obviously wasn't allowed to run its course. The government collapsed before then. You should know just there is some breaking news as we speak that the Elise has late it known that Macron has tasked Le Corny to try once again, like for the next couple of days to find a compromise with political parties. So it's kind of extending like this government which is already on life support. It's really like uncharted territory, I must say.
- [25:23]
Adam Fleming
Okay, Tristan, you're now going to have to interpret this in real time because Marion was just breaking that news to both of us. Me as an amateur, you as a professional. So does this mean La Cornue is sort of unresigned or reappointed?
- [25:37]
Tristan Redman
Oh, I'm trying to get my head around this.
- [25:38]
Adam Fleming
So taking his glasses off, that's how much thinking, that's how much thinking is going.
- [25:42]
Tristan Redman
So I mean officially the. The ministers who were appointed last night stay in position until a new government is formed. And their role is to sort of handle the day to day workings of government. But I mean, I guess sounds like.
- [26:00]
Adam Fleming
One of the Brunos will have to go though to make that work.
- [26:03]
Tristan Redman
I mean, Bruno Lemaire surely can't stay, but I mean, I. I can't get my head around it. I mean, everyone was thinking today that basically Macron would probably have to dissolve parliament and call new elections. But it's the. Who is it who said insanity is trying the same thing over and over again?
- [26:24]
Adam Fleming
I think it's always attributed to Einstein. But then it's one of these quotes that anyway, we'll get, we'll get our.
- [26:30]
Tristan Redman
Elves, because what Macron is doing now is essentially he's, he'll, if he tries to get La Cornu to form another government, he'll be trying for the 1, 2, 3, 4th time to the same thing and hoping for a different result. And that seems like a tall order.
- [26:49]
Marion Soletti
We don't, we don't have all the details now, but my understanding is, is maybe is keeping the government as is like the newly appointed one, in caretaking mode and kind of asking them to find a compromise. But again, like this is like really kind of just breaking. So trying to interpret as you do.
- [27:08]
Adam Fleming
Here, my guess would be it's going back to where we started this conversation. It was a personnel issue rather than a policy issue. I mean, that policy issue still remains and is going to be just as tricky when they get to it as previous prime ministers have found it. But actually, Macron presumably thinks you can make some tweaks to the lineup of the cabinet and actually this, this problem, this current one goes away.
- [27:31]
Tristan Redman
I think that's probably some disillusionment on his part because there are deep policy issues going on here and the question of how, how you dig France out this financial hole and the various solutions available to the, to any government to try and solve the financial issues are getting fewer and fewer with every passing day. So, you know, if you ask people on the far left or the far right or even just on the, on the main left wing block, if this is a, a personnel issue or a policy issue, they would, they would tell you it is all of the above.
- [28:07]
Adam Fleming
I mean, and Tristan, basically the, the policy issue we're talking about here is that France's public finances, they spend too much, then they could, then they raise in taxes. There's limits to how much they can borrow because the international markets will only lend them so much. And so they're going to have to be some spending cut somewhere and no one can agree where they're going to be.
- [28:26]
Tristan Redman
Yes, that's right. And the, the French borrowing rate spiked today. The Euro went down and the clock is ticking because they have to appoint a new government which is coherent enough to get through to the end of the year to actually institute a new budget for 2026. And at the moment, that's looking very challenging.
- [28:46]
Adam Fleming
And, Marion, in terms of the other parties then, or the other blocs in the National Assembly, I mean, how are they handling all of this today? Because, of course, they, they bear some responsibility for the gridlock as well.
- [28:57]
Marion Soletti
Yes, of course. But at the end of the day, I mean, they can always say that it's Macron's one thing is for sure. I mean, if they're entering a new round of negotiations, it's going to be a very tough sell for both the moderate left and the moderate right, because what do they have to gain to extend, like, some sort of lifeline to Macron right now? Let's not forget that we have local elections in March. Like, everyone is, you know, trying to solidify its base here. And it's hard to see how if Laconia failed during the last four weeks, it's going to succeed in just two days.
- [29:31]
Adam Fleming
And also, Marion, it does sound like Macron is really resisting this idea of new elections for the. For the Assembly.
- [29:39]
Marion Soletti
Yes, because his polling numbers are just appalling. Like, currently, the Polish polling shows the National Rally to be way ahead in a potential election. Macron's party is trailing third behind the left, which is polling second. So any call for a fresh election would likely result in his ranks being crushed in the National Assembly.
- [30:04]
Adam Fleming
Of course, Tristan, the other election Macron could call would be his own position as president. Talk us through the pros and cons of that happening.
- [30:14]
Tristan Redman
Well, yes, both from his point of.
- [30:15]
Adam Fleming
View and from France's point of view.
- [30:17]
Tristan Redman
Yes. So, no, no French president in the Fifth Republic has ever resigned from office. One president died in office, but it's never happened before. Macron has always said that he will serve through to the end of his second term in 2027, and there is no sign of him bowing to pressure from left and right to do that, which is. I mean, there is huge pressure on him at this point to, to step aside. I mean, he's an unprecedented, predictable guy. He, he does. He likes to do things that you don't expect. So he may do something like this, but, I mean, it's never happened before. I would say that one of the interesting conspiracy theories doing the round at the moment, especially apparently in his own party, is that what's happening right now, according to the conspiracy theory, is that Macron is engineering a situation in which the far right would power and that he would then either resign or, or step down in 2027, which is when his term ends, and then he would want to challenge them in the next election, in 2032, because he believes that that would be his best chance for a comeback. Now, I don't know if there's any truth in that. I wonder what Marion thinks.
- [31:36]
Marion Soletti
Yeah, I. We've actually written that up this morning in Playbook or flagship political newsletter, and this was coming from someone from his own party. So that theory is making the runs within Macron's troops themselves.
- [31:49]
Adam Fleming
But I suppose one thing that might put Macron off doing something really bold, and that would be very bold, is that actually the last time he did something bold, it was calling early elections for the national assembly, which he didn't need to do, and which is what has got France into this gridlocked political situation in the first place.
- [32:05]
Marion Soletti
Yes, that was obviously, in hindsight, a disastrous move that nobody is really trying to defend today. It would be even worse, politically speaking, for him now. But he's just running out of options. He only has bad options ahead of him.
- [32:20]
Tristan Redman
There's always a temptation to think in French political circles that Macron is a kind of four dimensional chess player and that everyone's trying to work out what his, you know, his, his move is. But sometimes it's proved that actually he's just kind of floundering around, trying to find his way like the rest of.
- [32:37]
Adam Fleming
Us, because we're all human beings and can only think in three dimensions. And, Tristan, just in terms of, like, having observed all this stuff for decades now, I mean, is this completely uncharted territory? Is this unprecedented? Or actually, is it just a sort of more extreme kind of stuff of the same genre?
- [32:56]
Tristan Redman
So France is not Italy. So, you know, Italy is known for less so these days under Meloni, but in the past has been a country where there's this huge, massive, rapid turnover of governments. France is not traditionally that way. So I think we are in uncharted territory, certainly because of the regularity with which governments are falling, but overall, because it's leading to a place where it looks like the favorites to take power are the far right, and that's never happened before. So if Emmanuel Macron turns out to have been the president that has opened the door to government for the far right, then that is, without doubt, uncharted territory.
- [33:36]
Adam Fleming
Marion, just last question for you. I mean, I've. I've covered a lot of news stories in France, but I've never been there on a day when there's been a proper political crisis. How does that actually just play out on the ground? I mean, I know exactly how it would be happening in the uk, there'd be people scurrying around Parliament in all the corridors. You'd have a load of journalists out on the patch of grass outside Parliament. You'd maybe have a bunch of people in Downing street waiting for the Prime Minister to come out and do something at a lectern. And just obviously the French system's quite different. Like what, what, what does it feel like on a day like this?
- [34:07]
Marion Soletti
Yeah, it's, it's slightly all over the place, obviously. As I was crisscrossing Paris this morning for reporting, I could see journalists heading from one headquarters to another trying to get hold of, you know, mps and top party officials. It was a weird vibe because after this morning's announcement that people weren't expecting, honestly, now people are just kind of waiting for Macron's next move because everyone is like, what now? I mean, what, what can you do after that? Like, it's. As one top advisor to Marine Le Pen was telling me today, it's a bit of a change of nature, even, like, for the ongoing crisis, like having a government, you know, fall less than 24 hours after being appointed is, is definitely feels like new, even in, in the current territory.
- [34:57]
Adam Fleming
Right, Mario, I will let you get back to dashing around Paris. Thank you very much.
- [35:01]
Marion Soletti
Bye. Thank you for having me.
- [35:02]
Adam Fleming
Thank you. And Tristan, just explain to newscasters what they hear when they download the global story, because it's a different way of doing the news from, from how we do it.
- [35:11]
Tristan Redman
Yes. Oh, thank you for asking. So it's more of a kind of narrative podcast, so where we're telling a, a kind of blow by blow story, there's a lot of chronology, so we'll go back to the beginning of a story, you know, sometimes maybe even 20 years ago, and, and, and work forward to the, the current day so that our listeners can understand context. And yeah, a bit of story this quite, is quite highly produced and stories about the world and the United States and how the two interact with each other.
- [35:43]
Adam Fleming
What I love about it, and I don't mean this, this is going to sound like a slightly odd thing to say, but, like, you don't know what you're going to get each day, but in a good way.
- [35:50]
Tristan Redman
I'm glad to hear it. That's what we're aiming for.
- [35:53]
Adam Fleming
Tristan, thank you very much.
- [35:54]
Tristan Redman
Thanks for having me. It's great.
- [36:03]
Ray Winstone
Hello, it's Ray Winstone. I'm here to tell you about my podcast on BBC Radio 4, History's Toughest Heroes. I got stories about the Pioneers, the rebels. The outcome, that car should define tough.
- [36:18]
Podcast Narrator
And that was the first time that anybody ever ran a car up that fast with no tires on. It almost feels like your eyeballs are going to come out of your head.
- [36:26]
Ray Winstone
Tough enough for you? Subscribe to History's Toughest Heroes wherever you get your podcast.
- [36:37]
Adam Fleming
And just before we go, we've had an email from Theo in Norfolk who says, I've just seen on Adam's social media that he went to see Lady Gaga last night. This was on Friday morning. I also suspect that he would have been up early to listen to the new Taylor Swift album this morning. That's Friday. So my question is, has Adam got enough sleep? All the best, Theo in Norfolk. Well, Theo and anyone else who cares. Yeah, I actually was fine because I don't live too far from the O2, so got home at a pretty decent time on Thursday night. Then I was getting up about 6, 6:30 on Friday anyway, which meant I could listen to Taylor's album Half in Bed, Half while I was having breakfast. And Also, it's only 45 minutes, this one, this new album, Life of a Showgirl, because it's not like those other ones recently where she's had like 30 tracks and there's a whole extra album comes out alongside it, so it's quite quick. And then also antisocial. Half of it is pre recorded the day before, so yeah, I managed to fit it all in. I have to say though, what a time to be alive. Seeing Lady Gaga on Thursday, listening to the new Taylor album on Friday. And then my heroine Katy Perry is heading towards Britain this week.
- [37:46]
Marion Soletti
Wow.
- [37:47]
Adam Fleming
And I'm heading towards Manchester because the next episode of Newscast is probably going to come from the Conservative Party Conference. So I'll speak to you very soon.
- [37:55]
Tristan Redman
Bye bye. Newscast.
- [37:56]
Lys Doucet
Newscast from the BBC.
- [37:58]
Chris Mason
From what, One newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds? Tell everyone you know. And don't forget, you can email us anytime@newscastbc.co.uk or if you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on plus or 403-301-239480. Be assured, I promise, we listen to everyone.
- [38:43]
Ray Winstone
Hello, it's Ray Winstone. I'm here to tell you about my podcast on BBC Radio 4 histories, Toughest Heroes. I got stories about the pioneers, the rebels, the outcasts who define tough and.
- [38:58]
Podcast Narrator
That was the first time that anybody ever ran a car up that fast with no tires on. It almost feels like your eyeballs are going to come out of your head.
- [39:06]
Ray Winstone
Tough enough for you? Subscribe to History's Toughest Heroes wherever you get your podcast.