A Tale of Two TV Upfronts

Summary

Next in Media: A Tale of Two TV Upfronts

Host: Mike Shields
Guest: John Toronto, President of VaynerMedia and Global Chief Media Officer
Release Date: June 26, 2025
Location: Cannes

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1. Introduction and Industry Overview

[00:48]
Mike Shields welcomes listeners to a special episode of Next in Media, recorded live in Cannes. He introduces John Toronto, the President of VaynerMedia and Global Chief Media Officer, marking his return as a guest from the previous year. The conversation is set against the backdrop of the rapidly evolving media, marketing, and advertising landscape, heavily influenced by technological advancements and data analytics.

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2. The Diverging Fronts: Sports vs. Other Inventory

[01:13] - [01:20]
John Toronto discusses the contrasting dynamics within the TV upfronts:

“It’s almost like the tail of two upfronts. Like you have NFL, NBA, live sports.” [01:13]

Mike affirms the dominance of sports in advertising:

“Yeah, there were sports everywhere.” [01:18]

John elaborates that sports inventory, such as NFL and NBA ads, are moving quickly and are highly competitive, effectively creating their own robust marketplace. In contrast, other advertising segments are progressing at a slower pace, with many brands adopting a cautious approach in response to fluctuating inventory values and viewership trends.

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3. The Position and Potential of YouTube in the Current Landscape

[02:00] - [04:53]
Mike Shields pivots the discussion to YouTube, questioning its integration within the broader advertising mix:

“Are they players? Are they still kind of getting in that siloed thing?” [02:34]

John responds by highlighting the complexity and underutilization of YouTube:

“A lot of folks don’t even realize that’s the number one app on TV.” [02:53]
“It’s underutilized from a creative standpoint, it’s underutilized from a targeting standpoint.” [02:56]

He points out the confusion brands face in categorizing YouTube’s budget allocation, whether it belongs to TV linear, CTV OTT, or social media budgets. This ambiguity hampers effective investment strategies.

Mike inquires about the potential for YouTube to capture more advertising dollars, especially with its vast inventory and creator ecosystem. John acknowledges YouTube’s strengths but emphasizes the need for better integration with lower funnel strategies to drive tangible business outcomes:

“YouTube really needs to figure out how it connects to lower funnel and drives business outcomes.” [04:42]

Despite its strengths, YouTube’s ad revenue remains only two-thirds the size of Instagram’s, indicating room for growth and optimization.

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4. Navigating the Creator Economy

[05:05] - [07:03]
The conversation shifts to the creator economy, with Mike asking about the challenges and advancements in working with creators:

“Is that getting easier?” [05:05]

John affirms the democratization of access to creators through various tech platforms and marketplaces provided by Google, TikTok, and Meta:

“Access to creators is being democratized.” [05:37]

However, he underscores the importance of cultural strategy in identifying emerging talent:

“The cultural strategy piece of it all is the secret source of creators.” [05:38]

Mike brings up high-profile creators like Mr. Beast, questioning their viability as media companies and the feasibility of brands investing heavily in them. John advises caution, recommending brands to initially engage in spot activations before committing to significant investments:

“You have to be certain that’s going to drive the business.” [06:20]

He advocates for an “always on” approach, continuously sourcing and testing new talent rather than relying solely on top-tier influencers.

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5. Platform Stability and Contingency Planning

[07:03] - [08:46]
Mike addresses concerns surrounding TikTok and the potential for platform bans, probing the industry's preparedness. John reveals that nearly all their clients have contingency plans in place:

“Almost 100% of our brands have some level of contingency plan just in case but at the same time 100% of them are planning that's going to be business as usual.” [07:18]

He notes the significant business outcomes from platforms like TikTok, especially with the rise of social commerce and TikTok Shops:

“Social commerce taking off. TikTok shops for it all taking off.” [07:38]

Mike further inquires about the migration of creators to platforms like Amazon or Netflix. John explains that while some creators secure larger content deals or develop their own streaming channels, the vast number of new fast channels makes it challenging to maintain transparency in measurement and viewership. He predicts a consolidation in the creator marketplace:

“We’re just going to see much, much fewer of them over the next couple years.” [08:22]

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6. The Rise of Live Shopping and Social Commerce

[08:59] - [10:51]
The discussion turns to live shopping and social commerce, areas John identifies as major growth bets for the agency:

“Live shopping and social commerce is one of the three biggest bets we're going to make.” [09:14]

He highlights platforms like Whatnot and TikTok Shops as significant drivers of commercial success:

“TikTok shops that we're building for clients are driving upwards of $10, $20 million of GMV a year.” [09:14]

John emphasizes that live shopping is not limited to Asia but is gaining traction globally. The integration of commerce units within social feeds not only facilitates direct sales but also enhances branding through increased visibility:

“It’s far, far larger than just like social commerce play. It’s almost like a full funnel by itself.” [10:24]

Mike muses on the future role of agencies in managing live shopping initiatives, while John anticipates that automated solutions may emerge in a few years, contingent on user behavior and adoption rates:

“The agent and dancing shopping is probably a couple years away to really.” [10:03]

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7. Conclusion and Future Outlook

[10:51] - [10:55]
Mike Shields wraps up the conversation, expressing enthusiasm for upcoming developments:

“Looking forward to see what happens over the next six months or so.” [10:51]

John Toronto acknowledges the insights shared, concluding the episode on a note of mutual appreciation:

“Thanks so much, man.” [10:55]

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Key Takeaways

• Contrast in Upfront Dynamics: Sports advertising remains highly competitive and fast-moving, creating a distinct marketplace compared to slower-moving other segments.
• YouTube’s Potential: Despite its vast inventory and unique position, YouTube is underutilized creatively and strategically, presenting opportunities for brands to better integrate it into their ad budgets.
• Creator Economy Evolution: Access to creators has democratized, but strategic cultural alignment and an “always on” approach are crucial for effective influencer marketing.
• Platform Stability: While contingency plans for platform bans (e.g., TikTok) are common, the focus remains on leveraging current platforms for business continuity.
• Growth of Social Commerce: Live shopping and platforms like TikTok Shops are emerging as significant revenue streams, with substantial commercial outcomes and branding potential.

This episode of Next in Media provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state and future directions of the media, marketing, and advertising industries, highlighting the pivotal roles of sports advertising, YouTube, the creator economy, platform stability, and social commerce.

Transcript

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[Mike Shields]

Hi everybody. Welcome to Next in Media. I'm Mike Shields. We are live in Cannes. This is part of my special series with my partners at View Planner. I'm here with John Toronto again from your returning guest from last year. You're the President of America' VaynerMedia and Global Chief media officer at that. Right. Good to talk to you John. Again. I know it feels like a long time ago already, but set the state of affairs in our, in our industry. Post upfront, what were your impressions? Where are things netting out for you at this moment?

[John Toronto]

I mean post up front, it's almost like the tail of two upfronts. Like you have NFL, NBA, live sports.

[Mike Shields]

Yeah, there were sports everywhere.

[John Toronto]

Everything else. So if you think about like the NFL, NBA, all sports inventory that's moved really quick, fast, hyper competitive.

[Mike Shields]

It's like its own marketplace.

[John Toronto]

It's own marketplace. Everything else moving just so much slower. I would say everyone proceeding with caution. You know, just the reality of the value of that inventory, viewership and you know this kind of trends in the marketplace but then also the macroeconomic climate, you know like you have a really tough political environment, tariffs impacting a lot of a lot of unknowns.

[Mike Shields]

Right. World War III maybe.

[John Toronto]

Oh fat. You know a lot. A lot of clients want increased optionality going to next year.

[Mike Shields]

So we got to grab sports.

[John Toronto]

But everything else, I need my sports grab it. Leave everything else to be optional, potentially biddable share, shift more into CTV OTT and kind of keep like dry powder of like media spend on the sidelines and deploy that we're more comfortable with it next year.

[Mike Shields]

Now we talked a lot about this last year. UG wants to be in that mix. I think they've made a lot of inroads there. They have a lot of inventory but maybe they don't have the, they have some, some sports but not the same scarcity they were talking about here. Are they players? Are they still kind of getting in that siloed thing? Like where does that. I know it's really hard to generalize.

[John Toronto]

But it's hard to generalize YouTube just because there's so many parts of YouTube. You know, if you're talking about YouTube, proper app on TV, I would just say it's still misunderstood. You know, I think a lot of brands you're still saying that. Yeah, like a lot of folks don't even realize that's the number one, you know, app on.

[Mike Shields]

And it's only gotten more distance between itself and the other guys.

[John Toronto]

And then it's like, well, how you buy it and the creative variable in that ad buy. A lot of folks are just putting their 15 second and 30 second TVC's in that by itself. So it's underutilized from a creative standpoint, it's underutilized from a targeting standpoint. And people sort of are still in this weirdo spot of saying, is YouTube part of my TV linear budget? Is it part of my CTV OTT budget? It's part of my social budget. Like who funds it?

[Mike Shields]

Retail media. Like there's so many ways in so many attack this which is good or bad. Like it's just a challenge for them messaging wise, I think 100%. Okay, so then what happens over time? Speaking of like underutilized. Right. There's a lot of talk about there's tons of creators here. Once again, Google's really pushing that. That's the connection they have that nobody else has. I was at a recent LUMA event where they talked about there's that's still underspent. How do you, can you even bring that into these upfront conversations? How do you think about that? How do you get brands to push more there?

[John Toronto]

I think this is an interesting moment. Like if you think about can for example, there's a lot of chatter around Google overall and brands starting to think around, well, what's happening with my search strategy, the AI of it all in the search and how do I start to think about my holistic Google strategy and should I start share shifting some of my spend from search proper into YouTube. So I think that's like a very successful.

[Mike Shields]

You never would have expected, which you.

[John Toronto]

Never would have expected. And it's almost like all of a sudden YouTube seems like a more defensible moat around it as a platform because of the content. So you have kind of like this shift and pull away from classic search into YouTube potentially yeah, interesting. And then YouTube starting to pull from the OTT CTV dollars YouTube has with shorts now social dollars. So there's a lot of potential sort of like different funding sources coming together at once. But then you look at like the run rate of YouTube as an ad platform and it's still 2/3 size of Instagram.

[Mike Shields]

Yeah.

[John Toronto]

You know, and it's like YouTube really needs to figure out how it connects to lower funnel and drives business outcomes. So I think that's sort of what keeps like a real, real influx of dollars going from it. And that's the social platform stuff.

[Mike Shields]

What about, you know, if you, if you want to move a ton of money into the creator space, is that still challenging to figure out who to work with, how to execute it? It's not that automated or is that getting easier?

[John Toronto]

I mean there's so many good tech platforms that can connect you with creators, help you source, creators help you have insights around creators. You know, whether that's a third party or even you're starting to see the platforms themselves. Google is pushing that as well. Is Google, YouTube have their own creator marketplace. So does TikTok. So does Meta. Right. So access to creators is being democratized. The still the art of who's up and coming, who should I actually work with, who's emerging in culture? Like the cultural strategy piece of it all is the secret source of creators.

[Mike Shields]

Yeah.

[John Toronto]

To them it's being democratized. Right. So I would say that. And then a lot of folks are still thinking about creators and influencers on a campaign by campaign basis versus always on. So as you think about the shift of performance marketing from being a sort of spot platform to always on platform, we think about creators and influencers as not just a campaign activation. 365 always in market, always sourcing new folks, always testing up and coming talent and sort of an always on par of the plan.

[Mike Shields]

Well, on that note, you're seeing some of the really big guys, the dude perfects, the Mr. Beast, they want to go out and do their own almost like upfront like deals. They're really media companies at this point. Are they viable containers for that? Is that like, are there really only a couple of them that can play that way? Are you talking to your clients about that?

[John Toronto]

Yeah. In the context of the creator's ecosystem overall, you know, if you're going to go and do a multimillion dollar or potentially eight figure deal with an influencer, like you really have to be certain that's going to drive the business. Right. You always have to have done like A spot activation or a one off campaign with them first.

[Mike Shields]

There's not 20 years of history there.

[John Toronto]

100% like so we think about, you know, creators, influencers a lot is like there is the long tail. You want hundreds and hundreds of folks that you're doing micro activations with. You never know who's going to get super hot. You never know who's going to be the next big thing. So always mining there then some mid level folks that are probably, you know, five figure deals, six figure deals maybe. And then when you really, really are certain you're going to like that top tier of influencers.

[Mike Shields]

I want to ask you a little bit about. You mentioned TikTok. I don't hear anybody worried about like it's funny we were asking everybody at one point are you planning contingency efforts for a ban? Is it just pretty much business as usual right now? Is it weird?

[John Toronto]

Yeah, I think we are full like boy who cried wolf territory. I would say almost 100% of our brands have some level of contingency plan just in case but at the same time 100% of them are planning that's going to be business as usual. So it's like you're planning for the worst but proceeding as though it's going to be status quo.

[Mike Shields]

Which sums up the year pretty much.

[John Toronto]

Pretty much, yeah. And we still see just a tremendous level of business outcomes coming from the platform form social commerce taking off. TikTok shops for it all taking off. So we're sort of like fall steam on that.

[Mike Shields]

I want to come back to shopping in a second but you one more note on all the big creators. What do you make of you know, you're seeing Ms. Rachel and some of these other names going over to either Amazon or Netflix. Does that change the way brands think about them? Does that make you want to move dollars there? Do you think? That's a short. There's only so many players that can do that.

[John Toronto]

Some of those creators are getting, you know, larger content deals. Other creators are developing their own fast channels. I think it's a really interesting time. There's so many fast channels.

[Mike Shields]

That is like I was at the Stream show last week and there was just thousands. It was crazy.

[John Toronto]

Yeah. And so there's just so many of them. How you buy them is actually quite simple but like almost like not transparent. The measurement is seems and then viewership of them is. You don't know if 2 or 2 million people watch them. Right. So it's almost like both sides of them, fast channel or creator marketplace when you think about streaming need to be.

[Mike Shields]

Up level because you're seeing a lot of creators put their stuff there.

[John Toronto]

Yeah, yeah, you need, need better ways to buy and you need better analytics on it. But then also the content itself from the creators like that will win out. So I think we're just going to see much, much fewer of them over the next couple years.

[Mike Shields]

Last thing you mentioned YouTube and shopping and maybe a little bit of a gap there. They have pushed for live shopping. You've seen a lot of others. Amazon is played around there, excited about that. Is there a lot of potential? I know it's a bigger thing in the rest of the world that's coming here. What's going on there?

[John Toronto]

Yeah, I would say we talk about live shopping and social commerce and that's probably one of the three biggest bets we're going to make as an agency over this couple of years. So you see platforms like a whatnot for example starting to get a lot of traction and take off. You see TikTok shops driving real, real commercial outcomes for some really big brands. So it's happening. You know people think of it as like oh that's something that only happens in China. But we're starting to see it now. Some TikTok shops for example that we're building for clients are driving you know, upwards of 10, $20 million of you know, GMV a year. So it's substantial ability to business and.

[Mike Shields]

You think about everyone somehow. Well maybe the future agents will just do this, this all for you. That seems to be counter to what people are. People are gravitating to these events like this social aspects of.

[John Toronto]

Yeah, I think it's going to be in the future. You know I think the agent and gentic shopping that's probably a couple years away to really.

[Mike Shields]

And it might only be for certain things, you know it might only be.

[John Toronto]

For certain things I think you know, user behavior will, will drive sort of the adoption there. What's here and now the social commerce, the TikTok shops but all like that's just the place where it's almost like if you're not there and we have CPG brands, legacy CPG brands who are talking to us about I love to be on TikTok shop because not only.

[Mike Shields]

Can not exactly like these you know, DTC cool brands out of nowhere.

[John Toronto]

I mean it's not just the commercial outcomes but it's almost like a branding play as well because the units, the commerce units show up in feed. So if I'm just be seen there. Yeah, yeah. If I'm an affiliate, my actual distribution happens in Feed, which that's almost free impressions on affiliate links. So if you think about it, it's far, far larger than just like social commerce play. It's almost like a full funnel by itself.

[Mike Shields]

Fascinating. Well, looking forward to see what happens over the next six months or so. But John, awesome conversation. Thanks a lot.

[John Toronto]

Thanks so much, man.