Podcast Summary: Next in Media Episode: "I think it will be blunt and arbitrary" - Goodway Group CEO Jay Friedman on what happens if marketers have to slash budget during Tariffmageodon
Host: Mike Shields
Guest: Jay Friedman, CEO of Goodway Group
Release Date: April 30, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of Next in Media, host Mike Shields engages in a deep conversation with Jay Friedman, the CEO of Goodway Group. The discussion delves into the tumultuous landscape of the media, marketing, and advertising industries, particularly focusing on the implications of potential budget cuts by marketers amidst economic uncertainties and technological disruptions.

Google Antitrust Verdict and Its Implications

Timestamp [01:14]
Mike Shields initiates the conversation by addressing the looming elephant in the room: Google's antitrust verdict. He probes into whether the recent ruling will have immediate repercussions on Google's expansive ecosystem.

Jay Friedman breaks down Google's influence, emphasizing that Google's dominance isn't limited to ad tech but spans a vast array of acquired platforms like YouTube, Android, and DoubleClick.

"[...] Google has a number of different ecosystems. We have to remember a couple of things. Number one, Google didn't really build much. Google acquired Overture to Invite, pretty much everything was acquired."
[02:44]

Friedman expresses skepticism about the antitrust verdict altering Google's trajectory significantly, citing the strategic acquisitions and the interwoven data networks that make Google formidable. He believes that unless there's a forced separation of Google's components, the company remains a behemoth in the industry.

"[...] absent breaking apart multiple parts Google and absent breaking out any AI Gemini and what's been trained. I feel like they have four trains running down the track..."
[05:10]

Mike Shields concurs, noting that even if certain segments of Google are spun off, the company's overall impact on the programmatic ecosystem might remain minimal, potentially favoring other Demand-Side Platforms (DSPs) and Supply-Side Platforms (SSPs) without significantly weakening Google's hold.

The Integrity of Analytics and Industry Misrepresentation

Timestamp [12:04]
The conversation shifts to the integrity of analytics within the advertising industry. Jay Friedman expresses his frustration with recurring negative reports that often highlight significant issues like ad placements next to harmful content or unreliable verification processes.

He explains his involvement with the US Department of Justice (DOJ), where he was approached to provide factual insights without bias, maintaining his neutrality as an agency leader.

"[...] I don't have a crusade, you know, to pick here, but it does cost advertisers Millions of dollars and they are led to believe things that aren't true."
[15:45]

Friedman critiques how some companies within the ecosystem misrepresent their capabilities, leading to misinformation that costs advertisers substantially. He advocates for transparency and truthfulness to empower clients to make informed decisions.

Mike Shields raises concerns about whether these ongoing fraudulent reports will deter brands from engaging with open exchanges or if the market will continue to overlook these issues due to their persistence.

Friedman likens the situation to the diminishing impact of frequent siren alerts, suggesting that while the reports contain truth, their repetitive nature may lead to desensitization among stakeholders.

"[...] my advice on, on the analytics or other, you know, anyone who's trying to go down that route is just focus on signing up clients who will listen to you and clean up their stuff."
[16:10]

Economic Uncertainty and Marketing Budget Cuts

Timestamp [17:34]
The discussion transitions to the broader economic context, particularly the impact of tariffs and consumer confidence on marketing budgets. Jay Friedman outlines how his clients are engaging in scenario planning rather than immediate budget cuts. He highlights the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in mitigating the effects of economic downturns by enabling data-driven decision-making.

Friedman uses the example of an eye care client with extensive locations, explaining how AI can help prioritize marketing efforts based on essential versus elective services.

"[...] the amount of things across the board that are elective are choice based and can be traded down out of."
[18:24]

Mike Shields references an IAB survey that suggests certain sectors like social video and gaming might see less provable impacts from budget cuts. However, Friedman counters by predicting that budget reductions will likely be "blunt and arbitrary" in most cases, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of human decision-making during economic stress.

"No, I think, I think it will be blunt and arbitrary in cases not with us, but in most cases I'm."
[19:55]

The Role of AI in Marketing Strategy

Timestamp [21:02]
Mike Shields brings up the accelerated adoption of AI in media buying, questioning whether the current economic tariffs will further speed up the integration of AI tools in marketing strategies.

Jay Friedman affirms the transformative potential of AI, equating its impact to that of electricity or the internet. He differentiates between mere automation and the more profound influence of AI protocols that enable seamless communication across platforms.

"[...] the whole MCP multi context protocol, I think component of protocolizing, if that's a word probably not of the agentic space, will be a massive deal..."
[23:09]

Friedman stresses that while AI can automate tasks, its true value lies in its ability to enhance decision-making processes and strategic planning, which is crucial during economic uncertainties.

Navigating Upfronts Amidst Economic and Technological Shifts

Timestamp [23:47]
The conversation concludes with a look ahead to upcoming advertising upfronts amidst the backdrop of economic tariffs and the need for strategic transformation. Friedman advises large advertisers to hold off on committing to hefty upfront deals, leveraging their current advantageous position to wait and assess market conditions.

He advocates for a more data-driven approach to upfronts, where brands collaborate closely with retailers to utilize retail data for more targeted and effective advertising campaigns.

"[...] I think there are enough CPGs out there that would benefit from a more strategic approach. And we're working on it with brands, but it's a change."
[25:37]

Mike Shields summarizes Friedman's perspective by highlighting the necessity for brands to rethink their advertising strategies, moving away from traditional, broad-reach approaches to more nuanced, data-informed campaigns.

Conclusion

In this insightful episode, Jay Friedman provides a candid analysis of the current challenges and opportunities facing the media and advertising industries. From the entrenched dominance of giants like Google to the integrity issues within analytics, and the strategic shifts necessitated by economic uncertainties and technological advancements, Friedman underscores the importance of data-driven decision-making and strategic foresight. As the landscape continues to evolve, his perspectives offer valuable guidance for marketers navigating through turbulent times.

Notable Quotes:

• Jay Friedman at [02:44]:
  "Pretty much everything was acquired. And so now it was acquired in probably the most strategic, brilliant way that any American business has ever been built."

• Jay Friedman at [05:10]:
  "Now that’s all been used to train Gemini and Gemini is kicking ass."

• Jay Friedman at [15:45]:
  "I just want my clients to have the truth and to be able to make informed decisions."

• Jay Friedman at [21:02]:
  "I think it is the next electricity, the next Internet, whatever it is and the value that comes from AI."

• Jay Friedman at [25:37]:
  "I think there are enough CPGs out there that would benefit from a more strategic approach."

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing valuable takeaways for listeners and non-listeners alike.