Podcast Summary: Next in Media
Episode: Media Predictions for 2026 with Evan Shapiro
Date: January 6, 2026
Host: Mike Shields
Guest: Evan Shapiro (Media Cartographer, Author of Media War and Peace)
Episode Overview
Mike Shields kicks off the year with media strategist and analyst Evan Shapiro for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of media, marketing, and advertising in 2026. The episode dives into the ongoing transformation driven by technology, the rise of creators, the evolution of brand influence, and the interplay between AI and authentic engagement. The pair delve into the shifting sands between “reach” and meaningful “fandom,” the challenges and opportunities for legacy media giants, and predictions for retail media, shoppable content, and the political advertising landscape.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
The Engagement Economy: From Vanity Metrics to Fandom
[01:38]
- Shapiro argues the old playbook of chasing reach and CPMs is fading, replaced by a focus on deep fandom and active engagement.
- "Scale and reach are now vanity concepts and fandom and engagement are substantially more important than CPMs or reach and frequency.” — Evan Shapiro [01:41]
- Success in the creator economy is about intense audience connection, not just big numbers.
- Examples:
- Mr. Beast maintains both massive reach and exceptional engagement but is an outlier.
- Shows like Hot Ones and creators like Amelia de Moldenberg demonstrate super-engaged audiences are more valuable to brands than simply having millions of followers.
Brands Become Creators
[04:00]
- Shapiro’s 2026 prediction: Major brands won’t just hire influencers—they’ll build their own content channels and behave as creators.
- Early movers: Under Armour, P&G, L’Oreal, and Walmart are launching in-house content and lifestyle platforms.
- “It’s not just, ‘hire an influencer.’ The brand itself will become an influencer and a creator.” — Evan Shapiro [04:21]
- Historical context: Today’s trends are a return to the roots of media (e.g., soap operas, branded radio/TV). Examples include Barbie, Lego, and Nike’s Jordan brand.
The Evolution of Brand Partnerships with Creators
[07:27]
- Brands moving toward deeper, more integrated relationships with creators—sometimes making them part of their “teams.”
- Shapiro points to partnerships like McDonald's co-creating menu items and Gap collaborating with hoodie influencers.
- “You want them to be a part of the team and more importantly, you want to join a team which they're a part as well.” — Evan Shapiro [07:53]
- The goal: Mutual development of products and brand storytelling.
Legacy Media’s Identity Crisis & Opportunities
[11:01]
- Traditional media companies are lagging in embracing the creator economy and fandom-driven content.
- Studios like BBC have seen success by putting “fandom first” and revitalizing franchises (e.g., Top Gear, Doctor Who).
- Many media giants still treat social platforms as mere promotional outlets.
- Shapiro predicts 2026 will see a “tsunami” of legacy players finally engaging audiences directly on platforms like YouTube and TikTok:
- “I think next year is the beginning of this tsunami. Disney will dip their toe into it and when they see success, when they start minting money from it—wait a second, why have we been avoiding this the whole time?” [14:07]
The Unstoppable Rise of YouTube—and Platform Wars
[18:01]
- Can anyone slow down YouTube? Shapiro is skeptical.
- Predicts Instagram and TikTok will launch serious CTV (connected TV) products to compete for living room attention.
- “That’s coming. Instagram already admitted that they're working on a television and TikTok is months away.” — Evan Shapiro [19:40]
- Short-form video works on TV, and both TikTok and Instagram are preparing for longer, more monetizable content.
Monetization and Ad Models: Branded Content and Dynamic Insertion
[21:14]
- Branded content in creator videos has exploded, especially on YouTube.
- Major development coming: YouTube will introduce dynamic ad insertion for branded segments, anticipated to drastically change monetization strategies.
Retail Media & Shoppable Ecosystems
[23:05]
- Retail media is “just starting”—the integration of Vizio by Walmart is set to create a giant in retail media networks.
- Political ad spend will accelerate hyperlocal, outcome-based TV advertising, likely transforming the addressable TV playing field.
- “The $2.5 billion that the political ecosystem is going to spend on 2026 advertising…that's going to change television advertising at the genetic level.” — Evan Shapiro [24:35]
The AI Bubble, Automation, and the Future of Work
[25:31]
- Shapiro sees signs that the generative AI hype will deflate soon.
- He predicts AI’s biggest impact will be incremental gains in efficiency—targeting, optimization, and automating busy-work, not replacing creative talent.
- “The success of AI is not going to be these sexy...it’s not going to make movies, it’s not going to make commercials, it’s not going to write scripts. It's going to improve incrementally behind the scenes…It's all boring.” [26:13]
The Rise of the “Affinity Economy” and Political Implications
[27:38]
- Next phase: A further shift toward “affinity”—deep brand loyalty and meaningful engagement (“humans doing real things with real content, over bots interacting with slop”).
- Shapiro coins this the “affinity economy.”
- Political landscape: In 2026, the dominant political skill will be mastery of TikTok and Instagram, not traditional campaigning.
Notable Quotes & Moments
- “Scale and reach are now vanity concepts and fandom and engagement are substantially more important than CPMs or reach and frequency.” — Evan Shapiro [01:41]
- “The brand itself will become an influencer and a creator.” — Evan Shapiro [04:21]
- “It's going back to the very beginning again...Barbie may be the greatest example of this of all time.” — Evan Shapiro [05:23]
- “If Carhartt had a channel where I could kind of embrace a lifestyle brand, I would absolutely subscribe to that channel.” — Evan Shapiro [06:45]
- “Disney does not still to this day put real content on YouTube or Instagram or TikTok. It’s all brochure, it's still arm's length promotional.” — Mike Shields [13:50]
- “That new device next year...YouTube has announced it...that's going to dramatically shift how that ad environment works.” — Evan Shapiro [22:41]
- “We're in the first half of the first inning of [shoppable TV and retail media].” — Evan Shapiro [23:05]
- “The AI bubble will burst next year. I think it's already starting to pop.” — Evan Shapiro [25:31]
- “Affinity over reach. Engagement over real humans doing real things with real content over bots interacting with slop.” — Evan Shapiro [27:40]
- “The one skill that's going to get people elected in 2026 is: are you good at TikTok and Instagram or are you not good at TikTok?” — Evan Shapiro [28:59]
Key Timestamps
- 01:38 — The shift from reach to engagement in the creator economy
- 04:21 — Brands become creators, not just sponsors
- 07:53 — Brands forming creator “teams”
- 11:01 — Traditional media’s struggle and BBC's fandom-first model
- 14:07 — Predicting Disney’s turnaround on creator platforms
- 19:40 — Instagram and TikTok’s move into connected TV
- 21:14 — Growth of branded content, dynamic insertion on YouTube
- 23:05 — The coming wave of retail media, Walmart/Vizio, and shoppability
- 24:35 — Political advertising’s impact on TV
- 25:31 — The AI bubble and incremental automation
- 27:38 — Rise of the “affinity economy” and social media’s role in politics
Tone & Takeaways
Like a fast-paced strategy session, the conversation is anchored in Shapiro’s playful-but-blunt realism. He mixes optimism for creative innovation with skepticism about overhyped trends. The actionable takeaway for brands, agencies, and media companies: In 2026, real fandom and affinity will drive value, and old hierarchies between creators and companies are being replaced by new, more fluid models of engagement and content creation.
Best for: Media and marketing professionals, strategists, creators, brand marketers, and anyone curious about the intersection of technology, content, and advertising in a rapidly changing landscape.