
I sat down with Evan Shapiro, the legendary media cartographer and author of the must-read substack Media War and Peace, to kick off 2026 with bold predictions about where our industry is heading. Evan didn't hold back as he unpacked the tension between AI-driven automation and the raw authenticity that makes creators so powerful. We explored how scale and reach are becoming vanity metrics, while fandom and engagement are what truly matter now. From Under Armor to Procter & Gamble, major brands are launching their own content channels and becoming creators themselves rather than just renting influencers. This isn't your typical brand content strategy, this is a fundamental shift in how marketing dollars flow.
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This week on Next to Media. I'm talking famed media cartographer and author of the substack Media War and Peace Evan Shapiro about his predictions for 2026. As you can imagine, Evan didn't hold back as he talked about his taking whether big media companies have been too flat footed in dealing with the rise of creators and why he thinks brands might actually blow past them both.
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Evan.
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I also talked about Netflix, Warner, Paramount, AI driven creative and whether anyone can slow down YouTube. Happy New Year and let's get started. Hi everybody. Welcome to Next to Media. I'm Mike Shields. I'm here with Evan Shapiro. He's a media cartographer. He's the author of the must read substack Media War and Peace. Hey Evan, thanks for being here.
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My pleasure, thanks for having me.
A
Excited to talk to you because we are doing the official kickoff to 2026 predictions episode which we will nail, I'm confident but so many directions we could go here and you have so many interesting insights heading into this year that I want to ask you about. But here's, here's one thing I'm thinking about for the coming year. You tell me what you think is the, on the, on the from the media from a media advertiser perspective, there seems to almost be like a tension where the industry is rapidly trying to embrace automation and AI and a more and more and more. Yet they have to reconcile with or have a reckoning about how important creators are and, and how much they, they are driving culture and brand decisions and stuff like that. Where they are, their, their superpower is inherently about authenticity and being human. I don't know, are those things going to be in conflict? Are they just gonna have to operate on two different paths? Like what do you think about that?
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So I think the biggest influence the creator economy is going to have on trad media and specifically on marketing and advertising is the idea that scale and reach are now vanity concepts and that fandom and engagement are substantially more important than CPMs or reach and frequency. And you can see that happening. I mean the bigger creators are not necessarily the most effective marketers for the agencies anymore. It's that kind of next level where the audience is smaller but that they are substantially more engaged. That's more effective these days for a lot of advertisers out there. So the shift towards these engagement metrics as opposed to just pure reach.
A
So that math you're doing on Mr. Beast is as big as my TV show or whatever. So that or so and so with the most subscribers is just like this, therefore I should think of them that way as wrong.
B
Best thing about Mr. Beast is not his reach, it is his engagement. Yeah, yeah.
A
Maybe it's the wrong example. Right.
B
He is the rare breed that demonstrates that who has been able to maintain very high engagement despite the massive scale. Yeah. Amelia de Moldenberg and Sean Evans are probably much better examples. Sean has a decent audience, but he's not by any stretch of the imagination. Hot Ones is not the biggest channel out there. Right. The most engaged channel.
A
People that watch it, love it and.
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They'Re into whatever episode, they share it and they buy the T shirts and they buy the hot sauce. Like really the most important thing about to know about Hot Ones is they sell a shit ton of product. Amelia de Moldenberg is another good example. She has like 4 million subscribers on YouTube, about 4 million followers on TikTok. But her engagement is off the charts. She sells products and what's fascinating is she won't embed your product in her YouTube show. She will endorse your product on her feed. And it's really, really effective. So those things are really crucial. What I my prediction around this for 2026 is that you're going to start to see brands not just embrace these rules, but become creators themselves. Under Armour, Proctor and Gamble, l' Oreal have all recently launched interesting new channels and production companies. Jay Goodman is really good at this out there in the marketplace. And so the concept of, oh, we have to hire an influencer to be in the influencer marketing business, yes, that's one way to go. But I think you're going to start to see major brands convert the spending that they're doing, creating content as commercials into, oh, no, we're going to launch an actual content channel. And there may be influencers and creators on it, but the channel itself, our brand itself will become an influencer and a creator.
A
Interesting.
B
That's the big movement next year. I think you'll see that more and more. And then I think that's going to be the major growth in the creator economy over the next five years.
A
So that, that's interesting on a number, a number of levels because, you know, if you go back like even 10 years ago, there was a wave of brands need to be publishers. And that, that mostly meant like, you gotta have a blog and you gotta pump out a lot of social content and some, you know, and then you had the Red Bulls of the world, certain like really good successes and some, some stumbles with creators. That sounds harder because you're, you're not talking about Like, I don't know, PNG's soap products. Becoming a creator. You're talking, are you talking about partnering with.
B
Why do we call them soap operas? It's, yeah. Going back to the very beginning again. And, and I think, you know, Barbie may be the greatest example of this of all time, but Mario Brothers Minecraft movie, there's a ton of that happening. And Barbie isn't a media brand, it's a toy. Right, Right. And it reinvented itself. Lego is another really classic example of this. But if you look at what Under Armour, just Dicks Sporting Goods has really leaned into this with content on their platform. And now that you see Walmart owning Vizio and you see Instacart and Grubhub and Target launching massive retail network initiatives, well, it's one thing to do marketing on those retail platforms, but if you look at some of the most effective stuff that Amazon does, put prime aside for a second. Their live shopping channel is massive on Prime Day.
A
I think people are sleeping on that a little bit. Right.
B
Like that's, it's, and it's been big for some time on Prime Day. 100 million people will visit that channel on one day. 100 million people.
A
Yeah. That is, that is super bowl esque.
B
NBC hasn't had that size. NBC is losing to Fox News in Prime.
A
Right, Right.
B
And so, yeah, then when they have a Super bowl in the Olympics, they do this massive thing, but they can't get anybody to watch their television shows. But these, but brand and retail environments are going to be increasingly important. And then when you look at the affinity that people have for products. I'm a Carhartt devotee. Right. If, if Carhartt had a channel where I could kind of embrace a lifestyle brand, I would absolutely subscribe to that channel. New Gaming is a terrific example of this. They're, they're, they're podcasts. Yeah. And they are content creators kind of writ large. But it's more than that. It's a lifestyle suite that they've created there that's been very successful.
A
Do you, so do you think I've seen, you know, different. Every brand is different, every creator is different. But you've seen some brands almost treat like a handful of creators is like part of the team, part of the creative staff, almost. I don't know if everybody can do that. But is that someone of what you're envisioning, that eventually some of these, they don't want to rent them and you.
B
Know, come and go, don't want to rent them. You want you want them to be a part of the team and more importantly, you want to join a team which they're a part as well.
A
Yeah, right.
B
Look at what McDonald's does with creators creating menus. Yeah, that works. That's worked, gang. But that sold lots of hamburgers for them. And I think you're going to see Gap hired a hoodie influencer to create a hoodie for them. Not just to embrace the brand but to actually create product.
A
Right. Not just make a couple videos with us like build, build, you know, build, you know, comb our business development with us almost in a way that's exactly right.
B
What's the auto. What, what is the automotive industry going to do now that Gen Z doesn't buy cars anymore? What are they going to do? Are they just going to give up? They're absolutely not going to give up. What they can do is create a lifestyle brand around their automobiles using creators, but also using the creator mindset. It isn't built. Just did a really creative and very successful micro comedy called Roomies that have gotten, you know, tens of millions of viewers to, to engage. And it's a really fun little series coming from them. And it to a certain extent it is going back to the beginning of entertainment, video entertainment anyway, where it's Texaco, Star Theater and you know, the tobacco company. If you look at I Love Lucy, the two things that create the heart of the beginning of I Love Lucy are cigarettes. They're smoking in every scene. And if you watch the, you know, the movie the Ricardo's about them, like it, they, that cigarette company was. When did.
A
Integral to the show.
B
Totally integral to the, to the show. I'm not saying was a great idea.
A
Yeah, yeah, maybe in hindsight but when we thought cigarettes were the example of the brand power back then and the influence was.
B
Yeah, and Clark Gable, you know, he, he, he took off his shirt and didn't have a T shirt on and T shirt plummeted. Then you reverse trend and you see Michael Jordan wearing a T shirt.
A
Right.
B
And suddenly Fruit of the Loom is selling off the shelves again.
A
Right.
B
But Jordan, the brand Jordan is another terrific, terrific example. This is a subset of Nike created around ostensibly an entertainer and it's a massive, massive brand. Yeah.
A
I'm amazed at the residents of Jordan has been retired now for like, you know, he's almost like his legend now lives him. Nothing's gone but like kids are so into his brand right now, despite the fact that I've never seen him play.
B
And then you look at that, you know, Basically six hour commercial that Netflix did.
A
Yeah.
B
I mean it worked like gangbusters. Yeah. You know, the timing of it was. Was good because we were all locked inside.
A
But totally.
B
But still, like I watched the. Out of that. And how.
A
Absolutely.
B
You know, how many Beatles albums did the Apple's Beatles documentary sell? And how many. How much more Billy Joel am I listening to since.
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Yeah, yeah. That amazing brand of content. Okay, let's. Let's talk about maybe the traditional media side of things right now.
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They are.
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I have a. See, this is a. I have a weird prediction.
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The.
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In another period of time, I feel like the traditional media companies would be trying to snatch up some of these YouTube studios. Call them the, I don't know, the, the, the Dhar Manns, the Rhett and Links dude Perfects. Even though they're not as big as some of their brethren in the traditional studio space, they would be desirable. I don't know if the media companies are in a position to do that right now. And you're going to have this weird limbo next year of whoever gets Warner Discovery. It's going to take forever for that to settle.
B
Right.
A
So what do you make of. That's a long way of asking where is traditional media this year? And trying to reconcile all these trends.
B
It's a great, it's a great question. I mean, I think you look at Dancing with the Stars, which just had a cast of all creators or influencers on it and one of the best years that they've had in a minute. But then you also flip it around and look at what ITV is doing with Love island and turning it into an asymmetrical flywheel creator brand. It's doing really well on major platforms, but it's also doing really well in Fortnite and these other platforms. Bluey is now a massive creator brand, but you know, BBC Studios is a great example. They converted their entire business model to fandom first creator mindset and they've resurrected really, you know, Top Gear and a bunch of other brands as a result of this, you know, Planet Earth and Doctor who are massive social media brands as a result of them focusing not on just selling tape to platforms, but really focusing on fandom first. And then you look at the popularity and indelibility of, of, of, you know, these Minecraft and Roblox and some of these other platforms. And so, you know, I think that they are coming around to it. You know, Disney invested $1.5 billion in Fortnite. Yeah. You know, there's not a creator thing, but they Just invested heavily in OpenAI. But you look at these trends and I think a big prediction I have, and this goes back to something I was just saying is the massive gross or the next big wave of growth in the creator ecosphere, the creator economy is going to come from big brands and major studios basically admitting if we.
A
Can'T beat them, we gotta join them.
B
Yeah, we must join them. Yeah. Disney does not still to this day put real content on YouTube or Instagram or TikTok.
A
It's all brochure, it's still arm's length promotional.
B
Like yeah, yeah, Universal, Warner Brothers, the major studios. Still, it's almost all brochure wear and trailers and it's almost entirely paid. It's inorganic.
A
Right.
B
I think you're going to see that change next year. I think next year is the beginning of this tsunami. Disney will dip their toe into it and when they see success, when they start minting money from it. Wait a second, why have we been avoiding this the whole time? It's the same thing that happened when they finally launched Disney, you know, plus when they finally gave up and said let's join Netflix.
A
Yeah, we got it. We're afraid of disrupting our cable business and that's fine. We got to go all in. And now and look at the thing.
B
They made every move, right? But they had the single largest, you know, launch of an entertainment history. They had 10 million subscribers in month one. They're like, oh wait, why are we waiting to do that?
A
Because these big guys have to. I said this.
B
No matter.
A
Let's just say if Netflix gets Warner Brothers or Paramount, neither one, that doesn't solve their creator problem either way. Like they're just loading up on which great ip. Don't get me wrong, you audience, they both, they all have to figure out how to, to speak to Gen Z and Gen. And, and what is Disney.
B
Admitting when they invest in OpenAI and give 200 characters to Sora? What are they saying right there? First, it's unavoidable. We, we have to get ahead of this.
A
It's like, it's just like YouTube 20 years ago. They fought it and then lost time. This is what he sued YouTube. Yeah, right.
B
And then when they finally were like, oh wait a second, there's an audience there, right? That's the same thing here. Disney, you know, credit them for, for this move. They're going to be, they're going to be okay with people creating user generated content using their characters, but the deal with Sora and OpenAI allows them to get it and use it on their own platforms. That's kind of genius. Yeah. That is credit to them. You know, they don't make every move correctly, but that is a very smart. You go back a little while, about five, six years, there was this thing called Ratatouzical, which was a musical based on ratatouille that a bunch of tiktokers made. And by the time Disney discovered it was happening, it was too late, they couldn't stop it. And so they kind of looked the other way and almost actually said, okay, fine, this is good for us. It's helping sell movies.
A
Right. It's about fan passion at the end.
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Of the day, right.
A
It's not, it's not a bad thing.
B
Now they're taking the next step. They're saying, here, take our ip, make.
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Your own, go nuts with it, help me out, get creative.
B
That we like will wind up on Disney.
A
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B
Find it. Genius. And then if something's really great, awesome, absolutely.
A
Hire that, lean in and build, you know, build a couple of franchises out of it. What about, can anybody challenge you? You know, YouTube has been this like thing that everybody wanted to deny for so long now. That's like, oh my God, we've got to.
B
That's the odd thing. Yeah.
A
Yes, yes. You still have serious pockets of the industry that are designing it. Can anybody challenge Them. I don't know if I'm asking like, I wonder if you know, could, could Amazon say we got to figure this out where, you know, because they're, they're one of the most aggressive companies in media and advertising for sure. I don't know that Netflix can all of a sudden become a user generated creator platform. But like can anybody challenge anything?
B
I mean, yeah, bought Ms. Rachel, they bought the Sidemen, they bought Jake Paul, they, they are putting podcasts from Spotify on the platform. So they're definitely embracing.
A
Right.
B
I, I think what's more likely to happen is that Instagram and TikTok will, I. Is another prediction I'm making. I believe that next year Instagram and TikTok will launch CTV platforms. Matt Real, they have them.
A
Yeah, TikTok is, it's been half hearted but that would be fascinating if they could figure that out.
B
But when, when Oracle, the Allisons take control of TikTok in the US which they're going to next year and they already own Paramount, you know, I, you're, that's just, it's just a matter of time till the television product appears and we just tilt the screen this way.
A
Right, Right.
B
I mean I already, you know, certain creators, I'm allowed to make 10 minute videos on TikTok because I have a certain follower count that's that the, the incidence of the horizontal screen on TikTok is increasing on a daily basis. And then if you look at what TikTok did with Doyen in China, that they have a pretty sizable audience on the television set. So that's coming. Instagram already admitted that they're working on a television and TikTok is, is months away from.
A
Do you think that it will. The question has been, I guess will an experience is all about swiping and quick work on tv. But you're confident there's a way they can make it, you know, retro, make the fit the format.
B
I mean short form, you know, if you, if you use the YouTube app on television, short form works fine. I mean watch shorts but, but I mean Vivo is a massive television brand both by the way on YouTube and on fast and so and those are three minute videos and if you don't like it, you click next.
A
Right.
B
And soon, you know, you'll be able to comment on those as well. So I think the short form stuff will work. But you know, let's be honest, that's not actually where all the money is the money. The, the most optimized advertising experience on social video is 14 minutes and I think that's where you're going to start to see both Instagram and TikTok lean more into. As they move to the television set, they're watching YouTube. I mean Neil Mohan was named, you know, CEO. Yeah. You can feel marks.
A
It feels like a landmark. Yeah. That, you know, and, and that would lead me to think that those, those guys, the Tick Tock and Instagram are going to somehow figure out how to make creators feel more. They, they still. I'm generalizing.
B
Right.
A
But, but creators make money on YouTube and use those other promotion platforms for promotion. They would like to be invested there and I would think they're going to figure out some kind of business model that works for everybody.
B
And when you look at the number of creators, YouTube creators who are now making most of their money from television, that number went up 30% in 2024. It probably went up another 30 or 50% this year. And so we won't know until probably about a month from now. But people are making. Not everybody. It's still kind of the top.
A
Right, right.
B
But more people are making more money. And when you look at what's happening, the, the incidence of branded deals. So these are not programmatic ads, but these are branded spots that creators or brand or publishers are creating for brands that are embedded in the videos. That went up 50 plus percent in the first half of 2025. It's the fastest growing segment of the YouTube advertising economy. Next year, YouTube already announced this next year YouTube is going to launch dynamic insertion for branded content.
A
That's a big deal.
B
They're not even actually taking a break on that. You're doing.
A
That's the stuff that has been hard to scale up that you, you think that's going to help accelerate lack of.
B
Dynamic insertion because you can only do it once and then that's the end of it. Right, right. That, that, that new device next year which is gonna, it's gonna launch next year. YouTube has announced it and they don't announce things that they don't plan on launching. That will, that, that's going to dramatically shift how that ad environment works.
A
What about, you know, it's been the obvious last couple years retail media has exploded. The. Everything has become shoppable more and more. Do you see any signs of that? And that. And that has affected how media spending gets evaluated and the CFOs love it. But that's not great for everybody. Do you think that there's any chance that the wave of shopability wanes or are we, are we just owing. Going all into that more and more.
B
We're in the first half of the first inning of that. We are just starting that because the data on CTV still sucks so bad and the tech should enable more shoppability. But they. It hasn't yet. And so as Walmart finally integrates Vizio.
A
Right.
B
So the second largest retail network. Yeah.
A
They haven't done a ton with that asset yet, but there's a lot there.
B
They will. Right. The Waltons are very smart people and so, you know, they didn't buy Vizio not to use it. So like that's going to become a massive. It's already the second largest retail network in the United States after Amazon. It's going to become even bigger, substantially bigger next year. And what retail media enables is a whole new class of buyers to buy television. And yes, it enables current advertisers to spend more budget because retail and traditional media budgets don't usually intersect. That's going to start to happen. I think this is interesting. It's going to be a circular way to get there, but the $2.5 billion that the political ecosystem is going to spend on 2026 advertising in 26 alone. That whole wave of money that's going to go hyper local with outcome based ads at the, you know, not just the zip code.
A
Zip code.
B
The neighborhood level.
A
Yeah.
B
That's going to change. Television advertising at the genetic level.
A
We only, these guys only scratch the surface the last couple of election cycles and the ctv, that, that's going to be a fascinating one to watch. How if that can unlock the true promise of addressable TV like we've waited for, that's kind of. That could be a game changer. A press.
B
It's not a. Maybe it absolutely will because there's just too much money at stake.
A
Yeah.
B
You know, and, and by the way, the buyers are so aggressive. You know, they're there, they have the ability to. It's like a, it's like a flood through a stream. It's. It creates new banks on either side and it's, it's going to shift the whole way we would look at television.
A
That's gonna be wild. What are, what, what is you think? Are we maybe overhyped or a trend that people are talking about that you think is not gonna be a big a deal or anything. We're sleeping on that. You're thinking about.
B
Yeah, I mean, I think the AI bubble will burst next year. I think it's already starting to pop. You look at Thiel and Barry and all these people shorting AI right now.
A
Right.
B
I'm not saying Nvidia is going to have a hard year. They're gonna be fine. But they sell hardware that's different. It's the soft services around it, the cloud services, but most notably these, these pretend businesses of recurring revenue that are not really sound. You know, people, they test out AI on subscription, they don't commit to it. Right. And I, I think you're going to start to see a burst there because the, the success of AI is not going to be these sexy. It's not going to make movies, it's not going to make commercials, it's not going to write scripts. It's going to improve incrementally behind the scenes targeting and time spent and optimization and efficiency. It's all boring. Boring.
A
So you're not like worried that it's going to replace, you know, we're going to 20 unemployment. It's going to wipe out all the white collar world and you know, we're doing.
B
No, it's going to, it's going to. Well, it's going to wipe out jobs. You know, it's going to wipe out jobs that are just silly busy work. It is going to wipe out those jobs because you shouldn't be doing those jobs in the first place.
A
Right.
B
A lot of coding is going to go to AI. A lot of just the optimization stuff, the efficiency stuff, the, the, the sharing of documents and modeling of models that's going to move. But it's not going to replace script writers, it's not going to replace directors, it's not going to replace actors, it's not going to replace podcasters.
A
Substackers. Right. They're okay.
B
I at what happened with the Washington Post and their stupid AI podcast just this past week.
A
Yeah. Think about that.
B
They don't seem to care, but it's. The journalists do, but the owners don't seem to.
A
Right.
B
But that's is a doucheb.
A
That's troubling. All right, what else are you thinking about that like, or maybe people are not thinking about enough for this for, for 2026. What else is coming that we should be thinking about or you're excited about?
B
I excited about. I mean I, I am pretty excited about this move towards affinity over reach. Yeah. Over engagement, over real humans doing real things with real content, over bots interacting with slop. You know, the agentic conversation, Agents talking to agents talking to agents. Yeah, I get it. But I do think there's going to be a rise and focus on true quality content being interacted with by actual humans.
A
The value of that should even be hopefully increasing in comparison to all this.
B
Other stuff next year that's gonna. I call it the affinity economy. I think that's gonna become major thing. I also going back to politics. I think you're gonna see, you know, we've already. We have a president who's basically only skill as social media. Now New York has a mayor whose only great experience is. I mean, I like him, I voted for him, but I don't know if he can do what he.
A
Yeah, yeah. Well, it's a, it's a, it's a roll the dice.
B
Yeah, yeah, he was really good at social media. I think you're to see this, the rise of the social media politician. And I think unfortunately for. For us, the one skill that's going to get people elected in 2026 is are you good at TikTok and Instagram or are you not good at TikTok?
A
So you're running. That's what you're. That's what I'm hearing.
B
Right.
A
I'm excited to hear about that.
B
I have no desire to run for anything other than from my wife when I say my.
A
I understand that perfectly well. Evan, we could talk to this book for three hours. This is awesome stuff. Thank you so much.
B
Happy New Year.
A
Thanks for taking time out for your predictions here and I'll check in and see if we got these right in a few months.
B
Pleasure. Happy holidays.
A
Thanks, man. Happy holidays.
B
No, we've already.
A
Thanks to my guests, my partner. If you like this week's episode, please take a moment to rate and leave.
B
Around New York lots more to bring you support.
A
We'll see you next time for more with next media.
B
I mean, I like him, I voted for him, but I don't know if he can do what he.
A
Yeah, yeah. Well, it's a, it's, it's a roll the dice.
B
Yeah, yeah, he was really good at social media. I think you're to see this. The rise of the social media politician. And I, I think unfortunately for, for us, the one skill that's going to get people elected in 2026 is are you good at TikTok and Instagram or are you not good at TikTok?
A
So you're running. Is that, that's what, that's what I'm hearing.
B
Right.
A
I'm excited to hear about that.
B
I have no desire to run for anything other than from my wife when I say my.
A
I understand that perfectly well. Ever. We could talk about this, but for three hours. This is awesome stuff. Thank you so much.
B
Happy New Year.
A
Thanks for taking time out for your predictions here. And I'll check in and see if we got these right in a few months.
B
Pleasure. Happy holidays.
A
Thanks, man. Happy holidays. A big thanks to my guest this week, Evan Shapiro, and my partner at sabio. If you like this week's episode, please take a moment to rate and leave a review. We have lots more to bring you, so please hit that subscribe button. We'll see you next time for more on what's next in media. Thanks for listening.
Episode: Media Predictions for 2026 with Evan Shapiro
Date: January 6, 2026
Host: Mike Shields
Guest: Evan Shapiro (Media Cartographer, Author of Media War and Peace)
Mike Shields kicks off the year with media strategist and analyst Evan Shapiro for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of media, marketing, and advertising in 2026. The episode dives into the ongoing transformation driven by technology, the rise of creators, the evolution of brand influence, and the interplay between AI and authentic engagement. The pair delve into the shifting sands between “reach” and meaningful “fandom,” the challenges and opportunities for legacy media giants, and predictions for retail media, shoppable content, and the political advertising landscape.
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Like a fast-paced strategy session, the conversation is anchored in Shapiro’s playful-but-blunt realism. He mixes optimism for creative innovation with skepticism about overhyped trends. The actionable takeaway for brands, agencies, and media companies: In 2026, real fandom and affinity will drive value, and old hierarchies between creators and companies are being replaced by new, more fluid models of engagement and content creation.
Best for: Media and marketing professionals, strategists, creators, brand marketers, and anyone curious about the intersection of technology, content, and advertising in a rapidly changing landscape.