Next Up with Mark Halperin

Episode: 8 for '28 Is Back with Newsom Still on Top and Mark Kelly Added to the List, Plus Alfonso and Jashinsky

Date: February 17, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin (MK Media)

Episode Overview

This episode revolves around Halperin's updated "8 for '28" ranking — his monthly rundown of the top Democratic contenders most likely to secure the party's nomination for President in 2028 — and the evolving dynamics shaping the field. The show also features two guests:

• Michael Alfonso, a 25-year-old Republican congressional candidate in Wisconsin with a Trump endorsement, who shares insights into his campaign and personal story.
• Emily Jashinsky, host of "The After Party," who dives deep with Halperin into the ongoing Jeffrey Epstein controversy and the public’s shifting "professional death penalty" standard regarding associations with Epstein.

The episode is marked by Halperin's characteristic candid analysis, sharp political reporting, and direct conversations shaped by insider perspectives.

Key Segments & Timestamps

1. "8 for '28" — The February Power Rankings

(Discussion from 03:00–34:50)

2. Interview: Michael Alfonso, Wisconsin GOP Congressional Candidate

(Starts at 35:01)

3. Conversation: Emily Jashinsky on Epstein Scandal and Cancel Culture

(Begins at 57:01)

1. "8 for '28" — The February Power Rankings

Theme:
Mark Halperin updates his monthly list (“8 for ‘28”) of likely Democratic presidential nominees for 2028, breaking down significant movements, underlying party realities, player strengths/weaknesses, and the effect of recent events.

Halperin’s February 2026 Democratic Rankings

(05:00–07:45) List:

1. Gavin Newsom
2. Josh Shapiro
3. JB Pritzker
4. Kamala Harris
5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6. Pete Buttigieg
7. Rahm Emanuel
8. Mark Kelly (new to the list)

• “The top two remain the same and I suspect they will for a while. Right now, Newsom and Shapiro, 1 and 2. I flip-flopped Harris and Pritzker, AOC moved up a notch, Buttigieg moves down. Ro Khanna comes off the list, and for the first time, Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona moves onto the list at number eight.” — Mark Halperin (06:20)

How Halperin Compiles the List

(08:10–10:00)

• Methodology: Uses previous month’s list, his own intel, and consults “great Democrats” from across the party spectrum; weighs donor and grassroots vibes alongside candidate intention signals.
• Strictly about likelihood to win the Democratic nomination, not the general election.

Quote:
“This is not about the general election... It’s about being the Democratic nominee. Some of you will be disappointed by who's on or off it — not my fault!” — Mark Halperin (09:25)

Key Factors Shaping the 2028 Democratic Field

(10:05–11:30)

• Identity:
  • Strong internal sentiment — especially among non-white and female Democrats — that the party will not nominate a woman, person of color, or openly gay candidate after recent losses; thus, “strategic imperative” to turn to “a heterosexual white man.”
  • “The two people I have at the top of the list are straight white men... It comes from particularly losing to Donald Trump twice by nominating, in one case, a white woman, and in one case nominating a woman of color...” — Mark Halperin (10:45)
• The Progressive Lane:
  • Who will inherit Bernie Sanders's base?
  • “You gotta factor in who’s going to be the strong progressive candidate, who’s going to inherit the Sanders mantle.” (11:15)
• National Security Readiness:
  • Recent Munich Security Conference exposed key weaknesses in several would-be candidates.

Candidate Profiles & Notable Moves

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:

• Foreign Policy Fumble:
  • In Munich, AOC was unable to answer a basic Taiwan/China question, underscoring inexperience on national security.
  • Audio replayed of her stumbling through an answer, echoed by earlier struggles from 2018 (12:00–13:20).
• “If she wants to run for president, she's going to have to do a lot of repair work... Her surprise at being judged as a possible presidential candidate demonstrates both a lack of depth on foreign policy and a lack of understanding of what it takes to be president.” — Mark Halperin (13:25)
• Yet, all sources insisted she must stay on the list:
  • “Some of them think she should be number two, behind Newsom. She's going to be able to raise money, she's got the progressive lane.” (15:01)

Outsider/Cut Candidate Discussion:

• Gina Raimondo: Dropped for being “too boring, too disliked by labor, not a good politician.”
• Andy Beshear: Kentucky Governor; sources split, Halperin doubts he’s ready for the big stage.
• Ro Khanna: Off the list after mistake naming innocent public figures in Epstein files, raising questions about his judgment (16:45).
• Wes Moore: Maryland Governor; denies intent to run, but Halperin skeptical about public statements as reliable indicators (19:06–20:50).
• Memorable flashbacks to Bill Clinton (1990) and Barack Obama (2006) both definitively ruling out runs — then running anyway (20:50–22:30).

Detailed Reviews of Top Contenders

• Gavin Newsom:

  • Criticized Trump (again) on foreign soil at Munich — “rubbing some folks the wrong way,” but remains “the resistance candidate.”
  • “At the same time, he continues to dominate the field as an aircraft carrier with an aggressive staff and a book tour.” (26:00)
  • Clip: “Donald Trump’s in retreat... He’s historically unpopular in the U.S...” — Gavin Newsom in Munich (26:35)

• Josh Shapiro:

  • Book tour solid but not a breakout; branding as “get stuff done, bring the country together” candidate; plenty of establishment support.
  • Sings “This Land Is Your Land” on the “Track Star” podcast (28:20).
  • “He continues to be a very popular governor from battleground state... But what I haven’t seen from him... he hasn’t shown a different gear.” (29:00)

• JB Pritzker & Kamala Harris:

  • Pritzker up for self-funding, union support, presumed intent; record flaws remain.
  • Harris down a slot — party reluctance to “turn to her,” concerns of risk after Clinton/Harris losses.

• Pete Buttigieg:

  • Down; “had a lot of opportunities to step up,” but “not moving up in polls, not demonstrating needed black support” (31:00)

• Rahm Emanuel:

  • Divides opinion but strong fundraising potential, deep Democratic ties, and debate skills keep him on the list.
  • “Until something goes wrong, he’s going to be on the list because in a weak field, this is a guy who’s got skills.” (32:00)

• Mark Kelly: (First appearance)

  • Arizona senator, combat veteran, engineer; recent controversies (Epstein lists, Pentagon dispute) oddly boost his fundraising/profile.
  • Quote:
    • “I’ll seriously consider this because we are in some seriously challenging times right now... I don’t know if I would be the best person, you know, in this job. I am a lot different than most of these other, you know, hundred senators there are.” — Mark Kelly (33:50)

2. Interview: Michael Alfonso, Republican Congressional Candidate

(35:01–54:41)

Who:

• 25-year-old candidate (youngest significant GOP congressional candidate in the US)
• Running for Wisconsin's 7th district (deep-red, open seat; winner of GOP primary expected to prevail in November)
• Endorsed by Donald Trump and national GOP figures; married into the Duffy family (ex-congressman, Fox personality)

Key Highlights

• Origin Story / Trump Endorsement:

  • Met Trump at his own wedding at Trump’s golf course at age 22.
  • Final endorsement meeting: "I promised him I would always be America First... and nobody would ever outwork me." (36:00–37:45)

• Family Connections:

  • Father-in-law: Sean Duffy (ex-Rep, now Secretary of Transportation for Trump); wife: prominent media figure
  • “With the help of my wife... they can help you learn how to get better every single day.” (40:50)

• On Campaigning:

  • Sees youth as asset, not weakness: “At the age of 25, I don't get tired. I always have energy. And this is a big district..." (48:31)
  • On being attacked for inexperience: “If you don’t wear a white collar going to work, you somehow don’t have experience... What has experience ever gotten us in Congress? Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer...” (49:15)

• On Policy:

  • Trump's COVID Record: “I think President Trump actually did a really good job... He gets an A on that.” (41:40)
  • China/Taiwan: “If China gets itself involved in Taiwan, we absolutely need to respond... America is the shining city on the hill.” (42:45; 43:43)
  • Trump’s China Diplomacy: “He’s the dealmaker in chief... Being friendly with the leader, but establishing clear red lines. We don’t joke around and we mean business, especially under this president.” (44:49)
  • AI Regulation:
    • Uses AI frequently as an accountant; recognizes dangers from “planet being destroyed” to “kids not learning how to write.” (45:22–47:10)
    • Prefers targeted federal regulation, wary of falling behind other nations. (47:23)

• Personal Notes:

  • Expecting first child (a girl) just before August primary.
  • "I'm a math major from the University of Wisconsin who worked construction for six years. Never been in front of a camera..." (40:50)
  • Favorite Wisconsin athlete: Joe Pavelski (52:51)
  • Would consider but not pledge to self-imposed term limits: “If we start self-imposing term limits, only the good members would be leaving.” (53:37)

3. Emily Jashinsky: The Epstein Standard & Cancel Culture

(57:01–68:57)

Opening: The "After Party" Move & Media Banter

(57:01–57:45)

• Emily Jashinsky’s show moves to 9pm “prime time” for better guest access and audience.

Epstein Files: How Should Society Respond?

(58:45)

Central Question:
“If you were queen... what would the standard be to say a person loses their job and their place in society if they're in the Epstein files? What has to be true?” — Mark Halperin (58:45)

Jashinsky’s Reasoning:

• Each case is different; context matters: e.g., Peter Attia (TV doctor) case at CBS — messages with Epstein, racy but not criminal.
• Lines are blurry; essential to ask:
  • Did the person’s conduct affect workplace trust?
  • Were they a willful participant in “schemes” with Epstein (political or scientific), especially after he went to prison?
  • “If you were a willful participant in his schemes... and you were doing it willingly after he went to prison, I think that's a pretty clear red line.” — Emily Jashinsky (62:59)

On MAGA silence:

• MAGA figures (Ambassador to Turkey, Commerce Secretary, Bannon, others) named in files, but little uproar partly because:
  • Trump himself has Epstein links (pre-prison), making accountability moves complex for his supporters (64:14–65:30)
  • Fatigue/disgust over Dems’ prior dismissal of the story as conspiracy, now sudden moralizing, leads right to opt out of “cancel culture wars”
  • “I think on the right, it's just this deep exhaustion... There's just no moral high ground anymore. So we're done even playing this game of canceling someone for Epstein connections.” — Emily Jashinsky (67:42)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Party Reluctance for Non-White/Male Nominees:
  “Who feels about that [not nominating anyone but a white man] the most strongly? Non-white men, women, people of color — they feel as strongly as anyone, and women in particular.” — Halperin [10:25]
• On AOC’s Difficulties:
  “Word salad... I think if she wants to run for president, she’s going to have to do a lot of repair work.” — Halperin [13:23]
• On Wes Moore’s Presidential Denials:
  “I don’t take these statements as meaning a darn thing.” — Halperin [21:40]
• Newsom Abroad:
  “You want to be commander in chief? Can’t [attack Trump on foreign soil] historically... but at the same time, he’s become the resistance candidate.” — Halperin [26:07]
• On Internal Party Weakness:
  “By most standards, one of the weaker fields of either party that I've covered in my career.” — Halperin [09:48]
• Alfonso on Age Attacks:
  “At the age of 25, I don't get tired. I always have energy. ...That's me.” — Alfonso [48:31]
• Jashinsky on Epstein Standard:
  “If you were a willful participant in his schemes... after he went to prison, I think that's a pretty clear red line.” — Jashinsky [62:59]
• Halperin on Political Opt-Out:
  "It just seems odd they were so concerned about [Epstein]... and now they don't seem to say anything." [66:00]

Summary Table: February 2026 "8 for '28" Rankings

| Rank | Name | Notable Movement/Commentary | |------|--------------------------|-------------------------------------------| | 1 | Gavin Newsom | Dominates field, “resistance” candidate | | 2 | Josh Shapiro | Steady, but lacks breakout “gear” | | 3 | JB Pritzker | Up—self-funding, union support | | 4 | Kamala Harris | Down—party skepticism, risk aversion | | 5 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Up despite Munich fumble | | 6 | Pete Buttigieg | Down—lack of momentum/black support | | 7 | Rahm Emanuel | Up—fundraising, debate chops | | 8 | Mark Kelly | New—profile rising, still assessing |

Useful Takeaways for New Listeners

• Party mindset is overtly practical and cautious, prioritizing perceived “electability” after years of stinging losses.
• The progressive lane remains “up for grabs” without a clear heir to Sanders.
• Public judgment (and media scrutiny) on personal/professional associations (e.g., with Epstein) is more contextual and less “bright-line” than often supposed.
• Campaigns driven by personality, media savvy, and fundraising potential at least as much as policy and record.
• Rising younger voices (like Alfonso) stress energy, personal story, and “outsider” credentials, appealing to base resentment with “career politicians.”

Further Information

• View Halperin’s full analysis and rankings every month and share feedback at nextuphalperinmail.com
• Emily Jashinsky’s show “After Party” streams live Mondays and Wednesdays, 9pm ET, on YouTube and all podcast platforms.
• Michael Alfonso’s campaign can be tracked in Wisconsin’s 7th district as the August primary approaches.