Next Up with Mark Halperin: Inside "8 for '28” Dem Nominee Power Rankings, and Transforming Arkansas, with Gov. Huckabee Sanders

Date: December 11, 2025
Podcast: Next Up with Mark Halperin
Host: Mark Halpern (for Mark Halperin)
Guest: Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Arkansas

Episode Overview

This episode is split into two distinct main segments:

1. “8 for ‘28” Democratic Presidential Nominee Power Rankings: Mark Halpern presents an in-depth, sourced rundown of the eight most likely Democrats to become the party’s 2028 presidential nominee, sharing both known and “secret” strengths and weaknesses for each.
2. Interview with Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders: A wide-ranging conversation on the transformation of Arkansas under her leadership, focusing on education reform, teacher pay, school choice, the state’s relationship with Walmart, energy innovation, and reflections on her personal journey in politics.

The episode is brisk, data-driven, and heavy on both insider narrative and practical policy detail, balancing national political handicapping with the story of a Republican governor's aggressive state-level reforms.

“8 for ‘28”: Democratic Nominee Power Rankings

[01:10–36:45]

What Is “8 for ‘28”?

• Mark Halpern introduces his new recurring feature: a rigorously reported, insider-based ranking of the eight Democrats most likely to become the party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
• The focus is not the general election but solely “who is most likely to be nominated.”
• The list is shaped by ongoing reporting, consultations with party insiders, and is intended to reflect the dynamic pre-primary field.

  “It’s a nonstop process. I think about pretty much every day who’s up, who’s down, who’s making advances.” [03:53]

Seven Caveats to Understanding the List

• The rankings are about likelihood to win the nomination, not general election viability.
• Nominating calendar is uncertain and early states may not hold the same influence as in the past.
• Skills that matter to win have shifted; social media, not just money or endorsements, is key now.
• Party mood is potentially more open to anti-establishment, progressive outsiders than historic patterns.
• Actual intention to run factors in: “If they don’t run, you can’t win.”
• “This is a really weak field," with no perfect candidates.
• Everyone has flaws—one of many flawed candidates will win.

The Power Rankings (with Strengths & Weaknesses)

1. Gavin Newsom (Governor, California)

• Known Strength: “The momentum he’s built this year…fundraising, redistricting, regarded as a shadow president.” [12:17]
• Secret Strength: “A great staff…a deep team where there’s mutual trust in both directions.” [12:34]
• Known Weakness: “Image of being too slick, too political.” [13:08]
• Secret Weakness: “Fire in the belly often runs cool…his family is ambivalent about his running…he might be, too.” [13:22]
• Notable Quote:

  “Candidates matter most to win the nomination…but you need a team who’s experienced.” [12:27]

2. Josh Shapiro (Governor, Pennsylvania)

• Known Strength: “A great political athlete…thinks a lot about how to appeal to Trump voters.” [14:05]
• Secret Strength: “Has high-level support from Democratic elites—Pelosi, Obamas, Clintons.” [14:29]
• Known Weakness: “A lot of progressives don’t trust him…he’s too establishment.” [14:53]
• Secret Weakness: “Didn’t handle scandals or attacks well…[his] team did almost nothing to knock them down.” [15:19]

3. Pete Buttigieg (Secretary of Transportation, former Mayor)

• Known Strength: “He can talk the owls down from the trees…a great talker.” [16:31]
• Secret Strength: “He and his political team are tactically ruthless and sophisticated.” [17:14]
• Known Weakness: “Not been able to develop support from black voters.” [17:34]
• Secret Weakness: “Is he passionate enough, emotional enough—or too antiseptic?” [17:51]

4. Kamala Harris (Former VP, Senator, 2024 Democratic Nominee)

• Known Strength: “She’s got a national profile…strong ties to the core constituencies: Black voters, women, labor.” [18:44]
• Secret Strength: “She’s unshackled—private Kamala Harris is different; may show more of that naturally.” [19:06]
• Known Weakness: “Questions about her political execution…not that good under pressure.” [19:40]
• Secret Weakness: “Deep doubts among party elites about her competence.” [19:56]

5. Andy Beshear (Governor, Kentucky)

• Known Strength: “Cross-partisan appeal…Democrat in a very red state.” [20:47]
• Secret Strength: “Executive calm that reassures jittery Democrats.” [21:10]
• Known Weakness: “Not a scintillating guy…lacks flash.” [21:36]
• Secret Weakness: “Playing in the minor leagues—Kentucky politics is not national politics; may lack readiness for national scale.” [23:51]

6. Wes Moore (Governor, Maryland)

• Known Strength: “He’s charismatic…great on TV, in the room with donors and power-brokers.” [24:26], [25:10]
• Secret Strength: “His charisma works not just for grassroots but also with donors and officials.” [25:38]
• Known Weakness: “Hasn’t been at national level long…relatively new as governor.” [26:16]
• Secret Weakness: “Vulnerable to overexposure—the hype might outpace the record.” [27:03]

7. J.B. Pritzker (Governor, Illinois)

• Known Strength: “He can self-fund…billionaire, can pay for staff and campaign start-up.” [28:48]
• Secret Strength: “Popular with labor and Democratic constituency groups.” [29:37]
• Known Weakness: “Being a billionaire…may take heat for ‘buying’ the nomination.” [30:30]
• Secret Weakness: “Lack of sure-footedness in media interviews—may not be primetime ready” [31:02]

8. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Congresswoman, NY)

• Known Strength: “Digital juggernaut with unmatched activist energy…can build a movement like Sanders or Trump.” [32:06]
• Secret Strength: “Behind the scenes, has built more bridges on Capitol Hill than realized.” [33:23]
• Known Weakness: “Skepticism from centrists…too young, too progressive.” [33:50]
• Secret Weakness: “Limited patience for the grind…not clear she’s ready to drop everything and endure the 24/7 campaign.” [34:27]

“There’s people on my list who I don’t think would make it in a normal list…I think about the 1988 Democratic nomination fight…” [11:32]

[36:45] Segment Wrap

Halpern encourages listener feedback and notes the rankings will be updated and discussed regularly.

“Hopefully some of you will like it. I'd love to know what you think about it.” [35:03]

In Conversation with Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders

[39:53–73:40]

Governance, Reform, and the Arkansas Transformation

The Realities of Being Governor

• Sanders reflects on anticipated and unanticipated challenges of the role:
  • Day-to-day surprises that "nobody knows you deal with" [41:16]
  • Crisis leadership tested by natural disasters (tornadoes, ice storms):

    “You don’t get to dictate the path of a tornado…those are the moments that really test you as a leader.” [41:25]

The Push for Education Reform

Personal Background & Philosophy

• Grew up in Arkansas public schools, specifically Little Rock Central High, a civil rights landmark.

• Witnessed the 40th anniversary of the Little Rock Nine’s historic integration.

  “It was a pretty remarkable thing to witness, even as a sophomore in high school.” [43:05]

• Experience with diversity and seeing “no one size fits all”—informs her education policy as governor and as a mom:

  “Even in my own house, I can see…our three kids learn differently, which helps me to understand that we can’t expect a one size fits all system.” [44:37]

Education Package Details & Rationale

• Comprehensive reform—largest investment in public education in state history.
• Prioritizes:

  • Teacher Pay:

    • Raised Arkansas from 48th to top 5 for starting salaries. Number 1 when adjusted for cost of living.

      “We went from being 48th in the country for starting teacher pay to top five…” [46:55]

    • All teachers got at least a $2,000 pay raise.

    • Instituted merit-based bonuses (up to $10,000/year); over 4,000 teachers received bonuses last year for exceptional work.

      “One thing I think that was really important…we had all this amazing data showing student performance…But no one ever told her [the high-performing teacher]. …Now, we’re doing that, we’re paying her better, and we’re asking her to help teach other teachers.” [48:17]

  • Teacher Recruitment and Retention:

    • Broader benefits including 12 weeks paid maternity leave for teachers (state pays the bill).

    • Cuts to state income tax makes Arkansas a more attractive place for educators.

    • Result: More out-of-state teachers applying.

      “On top of that…Arkansas is the number one state in the country that people are moving into. …More opportunity for parents. …People want to move into, not move away from.” [53:21]

  • Use of Data & Accountability:

    • Rewards linked to data on actual growth, not just achievement.

    • Merit bonuses and incentives are “purely data driven” (not increased bureaucracy).

      “We haven’t had to add additional staff…we’re just doing it better.” [51:43]

  • School Choice & Opportunity:

    • Supports charter, parochial schools, and “education freedom accounts.”

    • Success is not about hitting quotas for charter enrollment but offering diverse paths for kids.

    • Stories of individual students—such as Jack, who switched schools under the new system and now thrives—illustrate the reform’s real-life impact.

      “Now we have more than 50,000 students in our state taking advantage of Education freedom accounts. That’s not just 50,000 kids. That’s 50,000 families that will forever be impacted…” [59:23]

Union Relations & Priority Shift

• The teachers union has played a declining role—Sanders says their “power and influence has been so watered down over the last decade.”

• Unions “want to protect a system,” but the state is now “promoting student success.” [55:52]

  “If you want to protect the status quo and you think that being 47th or 48th is okay, then you can do that, but I don’t.” [56:19]

Elevating Teaching as a Profession

• Halpern: “What if you could raise pay to $100,000 a year?” Sanders open to future increases, but also focused on ensuring state funds earmarked for teaching actually reach teachers—by law, at least 80% of funding must go to teacher pay, curbing district overhead. [54:24]

School Choice: Charter & Private School Admissions

• Sanders doesn’t aim for specific targets but wants “every kid to be in the place where they have the best opportunity to learn.” [57:22]

Energy, Economy, and Walmart

[63:44–69:57]

Walmart: An Economic Engine

• Walmart is “a pretty unbelievable American homegrown success story…Fortune 1 of 1 in your state.”

  “It’s a great thing to point to…that a little company…can grow into the largest company on the face of the planet.” [64:08]

• A powerful community partner—the Walton family invests heavily in local infrastructure, arts, education, and culture.

Arkansas’s Energy Transformation

• Businesses' top concern is now energy capacity, not just workforce.
• Arkansas has a diversified power grid: about 70% nuclear, natural gas, water, and more.
• A new technology frontier:
  • Lithium Extraction: Arkansas sits on a massive lithium deposit (Smackover formation) — potential to supply 15% of world demand and compete with China.
  • Employs innovative, “environmentally friendly” direct lithium extraction (removes water, separates lithium, reinjects water).

    “People predict that we have enough lithium in the state of Arkansas [to supply] about 15% of the world demand.” [69:43]

Personal Reflections and Arkansas’s Rise

• Sanders on her journey from political operative to governor: expresses gratitude for the mentors and supporters along the way.

  “Sometimes I can’t believe it either…It’s not just my friends…but sometimes I can’t believe it either.” [71:00]

• Praises current White House press secretary Caroline for her skills and predicts a big career.
• Shares memories of being supported by Trump as press secretary and the people of Arkansas.
• On Senator Tom Cotton: “He actually is really funny…a great, dry sense of humor.” [72:31]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Fire in the belly for [Gavin Newsom] runs cool. …His family is ambivalent about his running. I believe he’s ambivalent about running despite people thinking he’s all in.” — Mark Halpern [13:22]
• “We went from being 48th in the country for starting teacher pay to top five…when you adjust for cost of living, we’re number one.” — Gov. Sanders [46:55]
• “We haven’t had to add additional staff…we’re just doing it better.” — Gov. Sanders on merit bonuses and teacher tracking [51:43]
• “If you want to protect the status quo and you think that being 47th or 48th is okay, then you can do that, but I don’t.” — Gov. Sanders on education [56:19]
• “Now we have more than 50,000 students in our state taking advantage of Education freedom accounts. …That’s 50,000 families that will forever be impacted…” — Gov. Sanders [59:23]
• “Walmart’s been a great partner across the board—and they help in ways both big and small.” — Gov. Sanders [64:08]
• “People predict that we have enough lithium in the state of Arkansas [to supply] about 15% of the world demand.” — Gov. Sanders [69:43]
• “He actually is really funny…a great, dry sense of humor.” (on Senator Tom Cotton) — Gov. Sanders [72:31]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:10] – Intro to “8 for ’28”; methodology and seven caveats
• [12:17] – Gavin Newsom analysis
• [14:05] – Josh Shapiro analysis
• [16:31] – Pete Buttigieg analysis
• [18:44] – Kamala Harris analysis
• [20:47] – Andy Beshear analysis
• [24:26] – Wes Moore analysis
• [28:48] – J.B. Pritzker analysis
• [32:06] – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez analysis
• [39:53] – Sarah Huckabee Sanders interview begins
• [43:05] – Reflections on Little Rock Central High and diversity in education
• [46:55] – Teacher pay and merit pay system explained
• [51:43] – Discussion of data-driven management and bureaucracy
• [53:21] – Arkansas’s rising status, in-migration
• [54:24] – Discussion of $100,000 teacher salary idea
• [55:52] – Teachers union and its diminished clout
• [57:22] – School choice: not about quotas but opportunities
• [64:08] – The role and community impact of Walmart
• [66:56] – Energy future, lithium innovation in Arkansas
• [69:43] – Arkansas’s global lithium potential
• [71:00] – Sanders on the improbability of her own rise
• [72:31] – Tom Cotton’s secret: he’s actually hilarious

Takeaways

• For political junkies: This episode’s “8 for ‘28” is a rich, well-sourced, unique look at likely Democratic contenders, with candid assessments you won’t often hear.
• For policy-watchers and educators: Gov. Sanders’s reforms in Arkansas are ambitious, with eye-catching teacher pay, merit-based incentives, and heavy expansion of school choice.
• For those tracking regional economics, innovation, or energy: Arkansas emerges as a dark horse in America’s energy transition (lithium, nuclear), and Walmart’s ongoing role in the state is highlighted.
• Personal dynamics: Moments of candor, pride, dry humor (about Tom Cotton), and human perspective run through the entire conversation.

In the words of Governor Sanders:

"It's not that we want to check a box to have this many kids in this type of school. We want every kid to be in the place where they have the best opportunity to learn... That's exactly what we're doing in Arkansas." [57:22]

For feedback and future rankings, Mark encourages listeners to send their own top-eight lists: “I'd love to know what you think about it.” [35:03]