Next Up with Mark Halperin

"Pundits Prematurely Say Trump is Done, Plus 2028 Dem Forecast with Hillary’s Former Campaign Manager"

Date: November 20, 2025
Host: Mark Halperin (MK Media)
Guests: Patty Solis Doyle (Democratic strategist, Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign manager), Erica Donalds (America First Policy Institute, Chair – Education)

Episode Overview

This episode presents a deep-dive into two timely topics:

1. The current political status of President Donald Trump as pundits oscillate between pronouncing him “done” and surviving, and the realities reflected by polls and party divisions.
2. The early dynamics of the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential race, with particular focus on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom, featuring the insights of veteran strategist Patty Solis Doyle.

In the second segment, education reform advocate Erica Donalds joins to discuss the entrenched power of teachers’ unions and what can be done to improve American schools.

[00:54] The State of the Trump Presidency

Key Points:

• Mark Halperin observes the perennial fascination with the fortunes of any sitting president, focusing on Donald Trump as a "lame duck" in his second term.
• While the media and pundits (especially on the left) are quick to predict Trump’s political demise, this narrative may be exaggerated. Halperin’s guiding principle: “Nothing in politics is ever as good or as bad as it seems.” (01:56)
• Both public polls and whispering among Republican candidates reveal deep concern about Trump’s standing, especially regarding the House and Senate in the upcoming midterms.

Notable Quotes:

• “Trump is not the best president of all time, but nor is he done and dusted politically, even though he is in a rough patch.” – Mark Halperin [02:28]

Discussion of Media Narratives:

• Cites Jonathan Lemire’s Atlantic headline "The Trump Steamroller is Broken," painting a picture of infighting, poor polls, and a distracted president.
  • Lemire on “steamroller” presidency: “But that has really changed. ... There’s a real sense that he is distracted. He’s lost focus.” [05:50]
• Jen Psaki goes further, framing Trump as “more and more unpopular, more politically isolated, more reliant on the handful of sycophants he has left.” [06:42]
• Kara Swisher speculates on a dire end, even floating the idea of President J.D. Vance before the end of the term.
  • Kara Swisher: “I feel like we’re going to have President J.D. Vance by the end of 2026.” [07:44]
  • Scott Galloway: “You think this ends his presidency prematurely?” Swisher: “Yes. … I think he’s not going to make it to the end." [07:50-07:59]

Halperin’s Analysis:

• While Halperin believes resignation is unlikely, he does not dismiss the seriousness of the moment: "For liberals who say this is doom, not just a rough spot, you gotta remember...the most overused metaphor in all politics, but it’s right up there: Charlie Brown and Lucy and the football." [11:11]

[08:10] The Economic Picture and Trump’s Challenges

Key Points:

• Fox News’ own polls paint a bleak economic outlook for Trump: Only 15% say his policies help economically; 46% say they’ve been hurt. [09:17]
• Trump continues to blame Biden for economic woes, but voters aren’t buying it.
• The administration touts robust growth and AI-driven innovation, but tangible benefits haven’t reached the middle class and working Americans.

Notable Quotes:

• "If Donald Trump’s poll standing on the economy is on Election Day next year what it is now, Republicans will be wiped out." – Mark Halperin [09:33]
• “Voters get the sense...he’s not moving fast on the economy. Right. He’s not fixing the economy.” [12:09]

Other Insights:

• GOP candidates may start abandoning Trump if economy doesn’t improve by mid-2025, as politicians instinctively distance themselves in tough climates.
• Republican pollsters urge immediate, real change—not rhetoric or blaming Biden.
• “People just have no patience for Donald Trump saying this is Joe Biden’s fault. He chose to run, he took over. They’ve got a few months, but they don’t have forever.” [14:34]

[15:56] Infighting, The Epstein Files, and Diminished Clout

Highlights:

• Trump forced to sign a bill releasing the Epstein files against his wishes, seen as a sign of eroding GOP unity and authority.
• Republicans have begun ignoring some of Trump’s policy preferences, including on procedural Senate matters and redistricting.
• If trends continue, greater fracturing of GOP support is likely.

[18:32] Artificial Intelligence: Boon and Threat

Key Points:

• AI is the largest positive force in the economy today, driving gains for tech giants like Nvidia.
• However, AI’s immediate benefits are mainly for corporations and the wealthy, with looming risks for jobs and deep public anxiety.

Notable Quotes:

• “AI is, is not a total fix for the economy, particularly for voters. ... No one has the sense that the government understands this.” [20:54]
• “Whatever the economic benefits...ain’t happening before the midterms.” [22:31]

[23:18] Democrats’ Prospects Amid GOP Woes

Key Points:

• Despite internal leadership challenges and lack of compelling alternatives, Democrats are positioned to pick up seats if current trends hold.
• The State of the Union will be a make-or-break moment for Trump: He must provide both a compelling vision and actual results, especially on the economy.

Closing Monologue Summary:

• "Don’t take the snapshot and say Trump is doomed. But don’t be in denial...He is, in fact, the greatest president of all time and this, this term is the most successful ever. The answer lies somewhere in between..." [23:52]

[24:54] Trump’s Standing & 2028 Democratic Primary Forecast – With Patty Solis Doyle

On Trump’s Capacity to Govern and Political Health

Patty Solis Doyle’s Analysis:

• Hesitant to make predictions: “I am very sort of loathe to make any predictions on this case because he’s...I thought Bill Clinton was Freddy Krueger...and Trump is tenfold of that.” [25:18]
• Sees a real shift due to: the Epstein saga, a pivot to foreign affairs over “America First,” and economic pain for average Americans.
• Damage is not yet destruction, but there’s MAGA base erosion and danger among independents as midterms approach.
• She expects Republicans in tight races to distance themselves if things don’t improve.

Mark Halperin summarizing:
“I’m not going to say he can’t get anything done...he’s proven he can get things done no matter what the political environment is. But it's not great.” [26:57]

Can Trump Fix the Economy—and Does It Matter?

• Empathy is important, but results matter more: “People don’t like that. You can’t flip the economy on day one. ...I do think there is time between now and the midterm elections for sure.” [28:30]
• Affordability policies (reversal of tariffs, e.g.) may have immediate effect, but likely not long-term, lasting change. [29:43]

The Epstein Files Fallout

• The bipartisan demand for disclosure is mostly “politics, pure and simple.” Releasing the files is about siding with victims and avoiding political liability, not necessarily about criminal revelations. [30:26]
• On Democrats’ inaction under Biden: There was less public pressure and focus due to the pandemic and other priorities. [33:09]
• On reputational risk: The crisis playbook suggests transparency, but the uncertainty may mean waiting and preparing statements instead. [36:32]

2028 Democratic Primary: AOC and Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

• Both Biden’s advisor Mike Donilon and Donald Trump see her as formidable.
• Patty: “She’s got talent and she’s got charm, and she’s got really, really good political instincts. … I think definitely in the top three [of the field]. Can she win a general election? I don’t know.” [40:52]
• Her advice for AOC:
  1. Focus on winning over independents even during the primary.
  2. Raise money aggressively, using all means, including digital, large donors, and bundling.
  3. Campaign in red and purple states. [43:19-45:03]

The Primary Calendar and Newsom’s Early Lead

• Early primary states and the DNC’s uncertainty are acknowledged as critical but not yet a focus for candidates; Solis Doyle expects front-runners will soon need to prioritize outreach in key states. [46:25]
• On Gavin Newsom: Both Halperin and Solis Doyle agree he’s in a commanding early position, and history suggests the front-runner often becomes the nominee.
  • Solis Doyle: “I agree with you 100%. ...I think he has that innate political talent. ...I think he’s the front runner right now, honestly.” [48:46]

[53:35] Education Reform and Teachers’ Unions – With Erica Donalds

Teachers’ Unions and Power:

• Teachers’ unions filled a leadership vacuum and have successfully used political means to dominate education policy and promote left-wing ideologies.
• School choice is presented as the main way to break union power; non-unionized schools provide competition.
  • “School choice is the number one way that we break the power of the teachers union.” – Erica Donalds [54:55]

How School Choice Works and Drives Improvement:

• Money follows the student; parents receive funds to spend on public, charter, or private schools as they see fit.
  • “It makes parents into consumers and allows schools to then compete for those dollars.” [56:32]
• As in Florida and Arizona, school districts are now adding competitive programs to retain enrollment.

Potential Pitfalls:

• Halperin raises concern: Could school choice lead to “a tale of two cities,” with better-off parents abandoning public schools?
• Donalds argues that in Miami-Dade, 90% of families now actively choose schools, showing universal demand; broad polling across parties supports choice. [58:04]

Political and Legal Landscape:

• There is increasing bipartisan and legal support for school choice from organizations like America First Policy Institute.

Teachers’ Union Decline:

• Donalds believes union political power is waning post-COVID due to their visible opposition to school reopening and other reforms.
  • “The school choice movement is so strong...I think we are unstoppable when it comes to establishing education freedom in every state in America.” [61:23]

The Role of AI in Education:

• Erica uses AI for research, efficiency, and personalized help for students at home.
  • “It’s probably saved me from hiring a whole staff member...I’m just a big evangelist when it comes to AI.” [63:13]

Halperin’s “$200k Teacher” Idea:

• Halperin floats the notion of a state offering public school teachers $200,000/year to attract talent; Donalds reacts that top-tier pay should reward the best, not all, teachers.
  • “As a taxpayer and a parent, I would pay a great teacher $200,000 a year. I don’t believe in across-the-board teacher increases.” [65:21]
• Donalds proposes “uberfication of teaching,” allowing professionals to teach specialized courses without credential hoops. [67:00]

Essentials for Gubernatorial Reform:

• Universal formula-based school choice.
• Paycheck protection (unions collect their own dues).
• Science of reading and teacher retraining.
• Accountability through transparency and multiple assessments, not just standardized tests. [70:15]

On the Stakes:

• Halperin: “Everything, our economic prosperity, our national security, our suicide rates, our drug abuse rates, everything, our faith, our families, everything, everything flows from having kids who can read and write and think. And we’re just in decades and decades of neglect.” [72:34]
• Donalds closes: “[School choice is] all rooted in our own children needing something different than the school that they were zoned for…We cannot measure success by a 10th grade reading score...” [73:21]

[74:36] Erica Donalds on Florida’s Future

• Donalds discusses her husband, Congressman Byron Donalds, who is running for governor of Florida, and their shared vision for continued education reform.
  • “We’ll both be out there talking to people. We love grassroots work. ...God willing, we'll be successful and we'll be able to make a lot of these reforms...” [75:03]

Key Timestamps

• 00:54 – 23:52: Halperin’s monologue – State of Trump’s presidency, media narratives, GOP divisions, economic concerns, AI’s promise and risks.
• 24:54 – 52:59: Patty Solis Doyle interview – Trump’s survivability, midterm risks, Epstein files, the 2028 Democratic field (AOC, Newsom), campaign strategy advice.
• 53:35 – 76:38: Erica Donalds interview – Teachers’ union power, school choice mechanics, public school reform, the role of AI, teacher pay innovation, Florida’s education outlook.

Memorable Moments

• Kara Swisher’s prediction: "I feel like we're going to have President J.D. Vance by the end of 2026." [07:44]
• Halperin’s football metaphor: "Imagine a thousand MSN anchors getting ready to kick a thousand footballs and a thousand Lucys yanking them away. That's maybe what's happening here..." [11:11]
• Donalds on AI: "The day that you use AI is the first day you will use it every single day from then on. ...I'm just a big evangelist when it comes to AI." [63:13]
• Donalds on school accountability: "We cannot measure success by a 10th grade reading score...Are they good citizens? ...Do they have a pathway to economic viability?” [73:21]
• Halperin on public priorities: “I don’t know how you could think anything was the great civil rights issue of our time except for our kids’ education. …Nothing should come close for anybody.” [72:16]

Summary Takeaways

• Trump’s presidency is at an inflection point—pundits exaggerate his demise, but risks (especially economic malaise) are real.
• Media and intra-party narratives are shaping perceptions, but polls show eroding Republican unity and public patience.
• The Epstein files are a political football with potential to embarrass individuals across the spectrum.
• For 2028, expect a wide-open Democratic primary—AOC and Newsom are formidable, but unknowns remain.
• School reform hinges on competition and freedom of choice; teachers’ unions’ power is slipping post-pandemic; AI could be a positive disruptor if used right; innovation in teacher pay/roles is needed.
• The future of American education may rest on the ability of states to innovate beyond the Washington status quo.

For listeners pressed for time, the exchanges with Patty Solis Doyle (24:54–52:59) and Erica Donalds (53:35–76:38) deliver the richest, on-the-ground analysis and some prescient, practical ideas for political and educational reform.