← Next Up with Mark Halperin
Next Up with Mark Halperin
Ted Cruz Eyes 2028 Challenge to JD Vance, First Look at Mark Halperin’s “8 for 2028” Dem Rankings
01:10:16
Mark kicks off today’s episode with his signature reported monologue with new details about the emerging 2028 Democratic field – why the early frontrunners may not be as secure as they look, how donor behavior and coalition math are already reshuffling expectations, and why Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro currently dominate the invisible primary. Mark also previews his upcoming “8 for 2028” Democratic rankings and the key test he believes will determine who’s truly competitive heading into next year. Then, political heavy weights Melissa DeRosa and Ben Ferguson join the show for a fast-moving conversation that hits every major dynamic shaping 2028. They debate whether Trump’s economic reset can land with voters who still feel squeezed, why Democrats are struggling to produce new ideas, and how the Left’s internal split over Israel could reshape the primaries. The trio also digs into Ted Cruz’s suddenly hot 2028 buzz — including why some Republicans think he’s uniquely positioned to ...
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Mark Halpern
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News News News News News. It's a December full of news. And we're just getting started. Welcome back. This is NextUp. I am Mark Halpern, Editor in Chief of the live interactive video platform Two Ways and your guide to everything that's next up in this surprisingly to some busy December of news. Very happy to have you here. We call those of you who watch this program or listen to it Nexters. And we are proud to see the community of Nexters growing by leaps and bounds. Please tell all your friends, tell your enemies too. This show is for them. Our guest today, Melissa De Russo, Democratic strategist Ben Ferguson, host the Beg Ferguson Podcast and a co host of of another podcast with a guy named Ted Cruz called the Verdict. Excited to talk to them about all the news that's flooding our December inboxes and screens. But before they join us, my reported monologue on Halfway through my reporting on what's going on with the Democrats and 2028 as they look for a candidate. Some people will tell you it's too early to talk about. No, that's coming really fast down the pike. I'll explain to you why in my reported monologue about what the Democrats thinking is around 2028. That's next up. Don't go away.
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All right, welcome back everybody. We're going to jump right into my reported monologue. It's a little bit unorthodox though, amidst all the other things I'm covering and all the news that's going on. I'm about halfway through the reporting I started over the Thanksgiving holidays and I've continued intensively this week, which is to try to get my arms around one of my favorite topics, which is who are the presidential nominee is going to be in 2028. Now, some people always say, well, it's too early to do that. It really not. I'll explain why. But this is, this is my thing, this is what I've done for most of my career is to try to understand where the country is. Presidential campaigns are about process and press and politics and polls and I cover all that. But I've always thought of it as the prism with which to look and say, where's the country? What are people in America looking for? And it starts out with what are people in the two parties looking for? Not just the voters, but the donors and the activists and the politicians themselves, the strategists. I find it fascinating and it's a never ending process. People say, well, it's not going to start till after the midterms. No, it's already started. I've got a passion for this because I've been privileged throughout my career to be able to talk to people who are thinking about running for president to try to understand where their heads are at. On the Republican side, I reported over the last weekend into this week, if Donald Trump endorses J.D. vance, I think he'll be the nominee, but where's the economy going to be? Vance himself said at the Cabinet meeting, it's going to be great in 2026. But let's see. And then does Donald Trump really endorse him? And I keep hearing persistently that Ted Cruz might run and maybe he will, but that one's a little less interesting because it's kind of binary. It's either Trump endorses Vance and that's that, I think, or something else that he can't predict. So my focus this week is on the Democrats and what they're thinking. And it's just so fascinating to me. Every cycle's got some similarities. Everyone has some differences. There's some really big differences in this one that are making it difficult to determine who are the top candidates. So next week I'll lay out for you what I call my 8 for 28, who the most likely eight Democratic candidates are to be their presidential nominee. And I'll explain in great detail why for each of them. But what's been so interesting in the reporting is I'll ask people for their list. That's the way I do my reporting on this. Typically I'll say tell me who your eight are in order, most likely to least likely. And there's some people whose names are not on on some of the lists, who are high up on others. That's not unprecedented, but it is a little bit unusual. So I'll talk about some examples. But to say here are the top eight, and then someone who I trust, I'm only asking people who have very good judgment about this stuff and experience, they'll have someone at number two who won't even be on someone else's list, or someone at number three who will be number eight on someone else's list. What does the party want? And again, just to be clear, we're talking about the nomination here. We're not talking about who can win a general. And I, I get so many questions that are confused on this, even from people who are pretty sophisticated about politics. They'll say, well, is Gavin Newsom's California record going to hurt him when he runs for president? Well, maybe it will hurt him in the nomination process. It'll certainly be a factor in the general if he's the nominee. But gaming out the nomination is different than gaming out the general. And all I'm doing now at this phase is with you today and then next week is who's the nominee going to be? Who's the most likely nominee? People say it's too soon to start and no doubt it will ramp up, but people are already thinking about it, including the candidate, prospective candidates, including the people around them. Why is there something of a delay? Because we've never had such an unsettled early state schedule. And as you know, so much about winning a nomination for either party involves doing well in the early states. There have been some exceptions. Joe Biden won the nomination without doing well in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, but it usually doesn't happen. But the calendar is not set for the Democrats. We literally have no idea what states will be early and meaningful. New Hampshire always says they're going to go early no matter what. But will, will it be meaningful? We don't know. Will those delegates count? How much will candidates go there? So that slowed things down a little bit. It's allowed them to, to not have to be out there as much as they might be. But it's also forced this delay and it makes it very hard to break through. Right. One way you can break through early on in a traditional old schedule, where Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina were the first three is you could, in the, in the year after the previous presidential, where we are now, the first year of the cycle, you could go to those states and start to get a buzz going, maybe move up in the polls, get what I call the virtuous cycle going, get some good press clips out of New Hampshire, send them to Donors, raise some money. Get some articles about how you're raising money, see your poll numbers go up higher, get more buzz, media buzz. It's hard to get that virtuous cycle going. Very few of the prospective candidates have done that this year. There's other metrics of success to look at which are important. Now, again, we're just talking about the nomination fight and will be important in a presidential contest, which is grassroots fundraising. There's three kinds of fundraising. If you're running for president. There's big donors who bundle, right? Rich people who know other rich people. They'll throw an event for you, everybody and their spouse, maybe their adult kids. Kick in the maximum amount, about $3,000, and you raise a million bucks or 2 million bucks if you're doing really well, then there's a super PAC where people can give you unlimited money. It's that grassroots fundraising that's so powerful. And one of the mysteries, this is true in all of politics now, not just presidential, is who's good at grassroots fundraising, what makes a good grassroots fundraiser? The example I always give is Marco Rubio, when he ran for president in 2016, was not a good grassroots fundraiser. He hired one of the best firms to make content for grassroots fundraising online and social media. He's a young guy. He's very fluent in, in modernity and, and social media. His, his brand should be good for that, but he wasn't. So what makes a good grassroots fundraiser? We don't know exactly who will be strong. With some exceptions, all these ambiguities. The three things I'm focused on now to evaluate who's in a strong position are three things that the Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf said in explaining Donald Trump's early success in this administration in this term, Steve talked about the three A's. And I think if you're trying to evaluate anybody in politics today, but in this case specifically people who might run For President in 2028, the three is action, attention, and authenticity. Action is you're out there doing stuff. You're. You're showing, demonstrating engagement. Attention is people are covering what you're doing. You're. You're, you're being covered in traditional and new media. And then authenticity. People want to see somebody who seems like they're a real person, someone who's talking about stuff that's meaningful to them. Okay, the midterms next year, coming up soon, there's primaries early in the year. So if you want to be a successful presidential candidate for the Democrats in 2028, there's no better proving ground than the midterms. Next year. You got decisions to make about endorsing and competitive primaries. And then you got to say, how am I going to get to these states? A lot of midterm contested races in general election battleground states where you can show your chops and, and make connections. And then also in, in the early states, right, there's like a competitive Senate race, for instance, in New Hampshire. House race in New Hampshire, same in Iowa. So how do you, how do you get invited? You want to be invited by the top campaigns to come. And why do you want to do that? Well, it's a validation that you're someone who's popular within the party, particularly within the context of endorsing in a primary. But it's also an opportunity to collect names. And if you're a smart candidate, you're going to say, if you want me to come to your fundraiser or your rally, I want, I want to get the email addresses and phone numbers of the people coming to that event. Building up that infrastructure is incredibly important because it takes some time. And most of the people, there's some exceptions, most of the people thinking about running, they don't have the big infrastructure around them. The experienced staff who know how to do the stuff of presidential nomination fights, right? Building that up takes time, as does building up the skills to do it. Most people who think about running for president in both parties were like, eh, how hard is it? You know, how hard is, is the process? The answer is really hard. And even people like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, George Bush, Donald Trump, these, these are all world class professional political players who understand the media, understand when they ran for president, they'd done quite a bit of stuff. Running for president's different. How do you handle the spotlight? Right? How do you, how do you deal with tougher questions in interviews than typically most people have gotten? Building all that up takes time. And the longer you wait to get in, if you do get in, the less time you have to maybe do a little bit of off Broadway work, maybe taking slightly less tough questions than you're eventually going to get, but not under the sharp spotlight, the bright spotlight that's eventually going to come. So my argument is we got to evaluate these people now if we want to see who's going to do well. And some of this is performance, but some of it is understanding of serious stuff. It's one of the greatest things about this process is it tends to reward people who've thought a lot about the country, who've thought A lot about where we are at this moment, whatever the moment is for a particular person. And one of the most memorable stories for me, this was about a Republican, but it applies to a lot of Democrats who think about running is early on, again, this part in the process. A year after the previous presidential someone who would become a very important player in national presidential politics, a candidate asked me to have lunch, and he said, mark, what should I run on? What issues should I emphasize? And I said, if you got to ask me that, there's a problem here, because you shouldn't say, I'm going to run and then figure out what you want to do. You should have an idea of what you want to do and say, that animates me to run. And that's one of the things I always look for, is why is this person out there clearly relishing being mentioned as a potential candidate? What are they thinking about? Is it simply because, well, they got this job, now they want another job that's a bigger one, or do they have something to say? And one thing that I believe will be critically important to determining who wins the nomination, by the way, will also make them stronger if they win the nomination, the general. But one thing that I believe is super important is do they understand why Donald Trump won? Do they understand that not everybody does? Very few people do it. And that's something I think about all the time. I can't answer it perfectly, but I got ideas about it. So right now, there's two people who I think I'll. I'll tell you this, are the two most likely nominees. And I think, I think there's reason to believe they'd be amongst the strongest general election candidates. Governor Newsom of California, Governor Shapiro in Pennsylvania. They've thought more and more in a more sophisticated way about why Donald Trump won than almost anybody else in the party. And they've done that because they're intellectually curious. They've done that because it helps them govern their states. But. But they've also done it because they know chances of winning the presidency, no matter who the Republicans nominate. But certainly if they nominate JD Vance are greatly enhanced if you can understand why Trump won, because then you can speak to Trump voters. And we saw with Gavin Newsom take some heat because he's had some conservatives on his podcast. We see Governor Shapiro all the time talking about the party and Trump voters really important. And then policy, of course, what have they done in their careers that suggest policies that might be valuable if they, if they're president? The other reason to get going, I believe, is, is to get ready, to get their families ready. Right. A lot of the people thinking about running have younger kids, kids in an age that it would be, to say the least, disruptive to their families if they ran. Okay, you got to get them ready for it if they're, if you're going to do it. Once again this week, Governor Newsom said at a New York Times event here in New York City, I'm paraphrasing, but he basically said, I don't think about running for president nearly as much as people seem to think. And part of that is his kids. Governor Shapiro also has young kids. And having young kids now, like when George Bush ran, George W. Bush, his kids were, you know, early teen. And Chelsea Clinton, same thing. The Obama girls, they were at an age where that would be disruptive. Wonderful opportunities if they win, but very disruptive. But now we're in the digital age, and every one of these kids, if they're not already on social media, they will be someday. That's a big process to get ready for. And what happens? What's going to happen? I can tell you this right now with some of the people who are talked about relentlessly as potentially being the Democratic nominee, as potentially running for president. They won't. They'll wait too long. They'll wait too long to think about raising money. They'll wait too long to think about their vision for the country. They'll wait too long to think about how to get their family up on board for this. And then they'll delay it. They'll delay it. And, and they'll say, well, there's no early states to go to yet because we don't have the calendar and nobody but Newsom has really gotten a big leg up. I can wait. And then we'll get to about a year from now, after the midterms, the holidays approaching, and they'll, they'll call all their staff in and they'll say, okay, let's evaluate, like, what's it going to take to run? How much money do we need to raise? How are we going to raise it? Who can we hire? Who's going to. Our pollster going to be? Who's our ad maker going to be? Who's our digital person going to be? You know, have we scrubbed the kids social media yet? And then the holidays will come to be like, well, that's a lot to get going. That's a lot to do. And for some of them, I believe, based on history and based on looking at some of These folks, they're going to say, nope, nope, not ready to do it. Not, not this time. It's not our cycle. And so you're going to see people who end up not running. Okay. Now, as I look this week and part of why this has been on my mind even before this week, but, but why I want to talk to you about it both today and then next week is there's lots going on that's super interesting with some of these top candidates. Okay. First and foremost, Governor Newsom, I continue to believe, secretly I used to say it openly. I don't think he may not run in the end, but he's got so much accomplished this year as doing the things you need to do. Number one, building up the team he already had amongst the best teams of anybody. But he's now seen as almost like the shadow president. He's almost seen, like I would say the inevitable nominee, but someone who people need to pay attention to so things happen to him. Like he gets invited to come to New York to speak to this dealbook conference that the New York Times has. And again, if you looked at the coverage of the thing, it's all over the place. And he's done a very good job of talking at that event and in general. But the issue I raised before.
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What'S his critique of the Democratic Party? What has the Democratic Party done wrong that allowed Donald Trump to win? Here's this is Governor Newsom on Wednesday this week speaking at the deal book conference about his critique of his own party. S6, please. We don't talk enough about interest rates. We don't talk about incumbency issues. Related.
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Ben Ferguson
You just had BV on related Israeli.
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Mark Halpern
Politics, immigration, the border in particular. You could talk about all those things, not just 107 days, not just talk about Biden's determination or lack thereof in terms of passing the baton. But I think there's a broader narrative that we have to address that is we have to be more culturally normal, we have to be a little less judgmental, more culturally normal, a little less judgmental.
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Incredibly important insight that will appeal to a lot of people. In some ways, there is a connection between winning the nomination and winning the general, which is some voters want to see somebody who can win. And I believe a big part of the reason that Governor Newsom has, has moved up in the polls and the betting markets and in the estimation of the donors is he's standing up to Donald Trump on multiple fronts. He's fighting with him and he's talking about how to win the country over, not just Democrats, as you saw there, but the whole country. And for a lot of voters, they care about electability. You saw this when Bill Clinton won in 1992. Voters just said in the Democrats, we're tired of losing. We got to win the White House back and we want someone who can do it. This story got a lot of attention. This is from Deadline. Hollywood is a Hollywood trade publication. Two great reporters who cover the intersection between Hollywood and, and politics, which is usually democratic politics. A3 this is the headline on the story about Dominic Patton and Ted Johnson Newsom. 2028 Hollywood donors start Lining up behind Expect White House bid. He's a fighter. That's what we need. Exclamation point, right? And here's a quote from the story about how Southern California donors, not all Hollywood people, but a lot of Hollywood people are signing up with Newsom right now. A4 please. Enthusiasm by LA donors is very strong and very encouraging. Big checks are being written. Longtime Democratic insider James Costas insists with a looming big DNC gathering in the city of Los Angeles later this month. It was a slow build early on as we recovered from the loss in November, but there has been momentum building, no kings events, legal wins, the Kimmel effect, resistance growing. And it's turning into clear ways to fight back against the administration's overreach and organized to win in 2020, 26 and 2028. This is, this is what Newsom's captured. He's captured a sense of resist Trump and build something broader for the whole country. Now with success and with visibility comes criticism. And one of the dynamics to watch now is, is Newsom, I would say peaking too early. But is he drawing too much opposition? Because he's drawing more opposition than almost anybody else right now. Here's an example. At that same New York Times conference, the actress and activist Halle Berry was asked to speak. And she's a Californian and she, she's not loving her governor. Here's Halle Berry on Wednesday this week speaking to the New York times conference about Governor Newsom. S4, please.
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Melissa DeRosa
Back in my great state of California.
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Mark Halpern
My very own Governor Gavin Newsom has vetoed our menopause bill not one, but two years, years in a row.
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Melissa DeRosa
But that's okay, cuz he's not going to be governor forever.
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And with the way he's overlooked women, half the population by devaluing us in midlife, he probably should not be our next president either.
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Mark Halpern
Just saying. So that's criticism of his record on women's health from a pretty prominent person. You hear a lot of criticism about the economy, a lot of Republicans. Again, this to me, more of a general election issue, but it matters. For terms of his record saying Newsom's California is a disaster and not a coincidence. In my inbox this morning comes an email, not directly from Gavin Newsom, but from his fundraising operation. Headline is California Derangement Syndrome, and it lists a bunch of facts. He says you won't hear from, quote, Republicans who go on Fox News to trash the state. Sixth largest economy in the world to the fourth largest economy in the world. More Fortune 500 companies than the last two decades. More scientists, engineers, Nobel laureates than any other state. Of course, they have the biggest population, by far. Finest system of higher education goes on and on. The point is Newsom's aware that he's being criticized now and he's pushing back. And that is something, again, that a lot of donors want to see. He's pushing back now in the context of wanting to make sure Democrats don't turn against him. But you could easily see this turn into the question of can he fight back in general? That's what, that's what Democrats want to see now. Newsom, very strong. Ends the year. Very strong. Governor Shapiro, I think he's the most underrated stock in this whole thing. He's got some handicaps. There are no perfect candidates in here. But Governor Shapiro is this very popular, very successful governor of a battleground state. Incredible story, very well reported story. Lots of access to Shapiro in the Atlantic talking about his career. So if you want a kind of a primer on Governor Shapiro's career, take a look.
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And, and his success, again, really thoughtful about Trump voters. He says in the story he doesn't totally get it yet, but he spends a lot of time on issues like expanding the rights of hunters. Passed a bill in Pennsylvania allowing hunting on Sundays, eliminating the requirement that if you want a state job, you have to have a college degree. These are, these are, these are working class issues. These are Trump voter type issues. And Shapiro's Governor Shapiro has worked hard on them. Now, he's, he's short. He's under six feet. He's, he's a devout Jew. Those don't necessarily help him win the election. Right. But he is, he is in this mix. And one of the things in that story that's caught a lot of people's attention is, is the way the story starts, which is he goes hard after Kamala Harris. Okay. What happened was the reporter had access to Kamala Harris's book early, right? Before the. And the Governor hadn't seen it. And the reporter asked Governor Shapiro about some of the things that Kamala Harris wrote in the book. She basically paints him as being super ambitious. And that when they met in the process of her veepstakes selection process and started to ask him questions, he took over the interview, she says, and started to ask her questions and seemed presumptuous and demanding. And so when he's told that that's her account of their meeting right before she made her choice, here's what he said, according to the reporter. This is a one. She wrote that in her book. He said, in response to the claim concerning question about wanting to get art for Pennsylvania in the, in the VP's residence. That's quoting Shapiro. That's complete and utter bullshit. I can tell you that her accounts are just blatant lies. Then he says, there's a two. I mean, she's trying to sell books and cover her ass now. Then he took it back. And the reporter notes correctly, this was a real deviation from the way Shapiro normally is. Real deviation being kind of out of control, a little bit emotional. It's not the way he normally is in public. And, and it's an interesting question of why he, he, he lost, he lost the mask a little bit. One of the things this reflects is Governor Shapiro's understanding that he needs to define himself. And one of the lessons that was cautionary for people and one of the reasons I had downgraded him as a potential nominee is during this process, when he was under the microscope to maybe be her nominee, he was only one who had opposition research dumped on his head on a range of issues, and he did not fight back effectively. And I know for a fact that some people around Kamala Harris thought, well, that's not a great sign that this guy took all this incoming and didn't do anything about it. And the Atlantic story says correctly, I heard it as well in real time, that the Harris people who were doing the vetting of potential running mates said they'd never heard so much negative stuff from within the Democratic Party about anyone who'd been looked at. Now, ironically, probably the other example of that that I know about was when Joe Biden was looking at Kamala Harris, his folks were also taken aback by how much negative stuff they heard within the party about Harris at the time. This was about Shapiro. And so when she's meeting with him to consider him as running mate, he, he was aggressive. He cops to it. He said, I'm not going to become partners with someone and change my whole life without finding out more about it. Her view was she didn't have time for all that. The point is there's a good profile of him and he's an undervalued stock. And if you read the story, you'll see this is a guy who's been successful in the ultimate battleground state, thinking about the base of the party, not all of whom love him. Israel's not the only issue where he's got tensions with his own party, but thinking about how to win a general election. And he's extremely thoughtful and smart and ambitious. And of all the people in the race, potentially all the people talked about, I think he's got the most understanding of how this works. Even. Even some folks who've run before, I think he's got the most understanding of how it works now. After Newsom and Shapiro, where do we go? The two names that I hear from a lot, from some people and not at all from others, Governor Bashir of Kentucky and AOC Alexandria, Ocasio Cortez. Those two interesting to me, I don't rate them very high. You'll see next week where I put them on my list. I don't rate them very high. Some people put them at the top. It's so interesting. And it speaks to not just them and the questions about their appeal. It speaks to what does the party want? Some people say the party will never nominate a woman this time because they've had two women and they've lost Harris and Clinton. Some people say they'll never nominate someone who's on the wrong side of the anti Israel part of the Democratic Party, like Governor Shapiro, who's been pretty pro Israel. Some people say the party's not going to nominate a liberal because they want to win, like Ocasio Cortez, or they're not going to nominate a moderate like Bashir because the dominant wing of the party is the liberal wing of the party. Don't know. But I do know that there's less clarity about this than I've ever seen at any point in my career. There's either party, less clarity. So you'll see next week who I rate high. There's some people like Kamala Harris, who's. You take everybody on the list, the expanded list, say the 20 or so names. She probably had the worst year of anybody. On the question of how likely is it that this person's going to be the nominee? No one who I asked put her on the list. Not one person. Now, I wouldn't go that far as to say she's got zero chance. But you can see my sources don't think she has much of a chance. And there are people like Governor Whitmer, Governor Pritzker, same as AOC and Bashir. Some people put them high, some people low. We'll break all that down next week. But I think the important thing is to, is to think about this. Don't, when you're thinking about this process, don't think about who can win a general. Think about who can win the nomination and then ask yourself who's got a vision? Now, I'll exempt Joe Biden from it. I don't mean to be mean to him. I think he won for other reasons. I don't think he won because he had a vision. But if you look at from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush to Barack Obama to Donald Trump, they've, with the exception of one win by Joe Biden, those four guys have won every election for more than 30 years in this country. And what those four guys had in common is they talked for a long time about their vision for the country and there was no ambiguity about why they were running. So, sure, pay attention to polling, pay attention to fundraising, pay attention to endorsements, pay attention to betting markets, pay attention to who's getting coverage in different places. But most of all, do what I do. If you want to, if you want to have a beat on this, who's got a vision, who understands the country and who understands both parties. That's the other through line here that I'm here to tell you. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, all three of them, all four of them, when they ran, said, here's where my party's at. Here's, here's what's wrong with my party. Here's what's good about my party. But here's, here's, what's, here's what's wrong with my party and here's what's wrong with the other side. And here's how I'm going to bring voters from the other side to my side. Every one of them won. Voters who hadn't previously voted for their presidential candidates, their party's presidential candidates. Now, some people say Trump destroyed both parties and there's some truth to that. But Trump understood both parties, too, and he does to this day. Does J.D. vance understand both parties? I think he does. I think it's one of the underrated things about him. But when I look at the Democratic field forming field, the two people who stand out to me for a variety of reasons but primarily for this is Shapiro and, and Newsom have thought a lot about what's wrong with the Democratic Party, why did Donald Trump win twice and what's weak about the Republican Party? What's vulnerable about the Republican Party? So as I said, next week I'll unveil the first of my eight for 28, the top eight prospects to win the Democratic nomination. We'll talk about their strengths, their weaknesses, their hidden strengths and weaknesses. And we'll keep tracking it here because this is coming faster than you think. It may not be next up, but it's next next up and we will follow it. All right, there you have it. That's my reported monologue for this week based on lots of conversations with a lot of Democrats. But now I know, I know what you think. Send me an email on your thoughts on today's report. You can send it. Fire up the email machine to nextup halperin@gmail.
- [33:29]
And whenever you're thinking about the program again, you can watch it on YouTube or you can listen to it as a podcast, whichever you prefer on any given week. So make sure you're subscribed and followed everywhere. Subscribe on the YouTube channel. Watch the full episodes there, plus bonus clips. That's YouTube.com@/@nextup halperin. And again, if you want to listen to it as a podcast, do that too. You can subscribe to NextUp with Mark Alpern anywhere, every platform. A lot of people like Apple and Spotify, but wherever you like your podcast, we are there. Make sure the downloads are turned on and tell all your friends the community of Nexters grows. We're grateful for that, but it's not growing quite as fast as I would like because I'm an impatient, aggressive and competitive person. So go to all the platforms, sign up, tell all your friends so they can like you do. Get all my new reports live and as soon as they're posted, quick break right now. But when we come back, joined by two smarty pants, Melissa DeRosa and Ben Ferguson. They are next up.
- [34:26]
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- [37:09]
Mark Halpern
Joining me now. And next up for hilarity and information, two of America's greats. Ben Ferguson hosts the Ben Ferguson Podcast and co host of the Verdict with Ted Cruz, whom we will be discussing shortly.
- [37:21]
Ben Ferguson
And Melissa, don't forget America's Pundit. You got to add that in there.
- [37:23]
Mark Halpern
Come on, America's America's polite Pundit. He's America's Polite Pundit. Scott Jennings. Scott Jennings, a recent guest in this program, previously was considered America's Pundit, but he's lost the title. Congratulations, Ben FERGUSON. And Melissa DeRosa, Democratic strategist and author of a spectacular book. Not every young woman can write a successful memoir, but Melissa did it. That's a reference to the news. Welcome in both of you. Thank you for being here. Ben, what are you doing for the holidays?
- [37:51]
Ben Ferguson
Hanging out with the fam. The boys have, I think, a couple golf tournaments. So we'll do that as well and do a little hunting, a little fishing and, yeah, that'll be about it.
- [38:00]
Mark Halpern
Melissa, I know, not traveling. I know you're likely to be hunting as well. Where, where were you? What will you be doing on the holidays?
- [38:06]
Melissa DeRosa
Hunting something, that's for sure. I will be with my family as well. I have a nephew who one and a half, which is like the sweetest age possible. And then hopefully to a beach somewhere.
- [38:16]
Mark Halpern
That's awesome, Ben. Ben's kids are sporty, as Mitt Romney would say. Yes, they're very sporty. Yeah. Grateful to you both for being here. Let's talk about the president, the economy. Axio says he's going to go to Pennsylvania next week and talk about the economy. And every Republican strategist I talked to, every member of Congress, they all say the same thing, like, we're not in fantasy world. Donald Trump's not going to suddenly be like Bill Clinton giving 45 minutes theory of the case on economic growth. But they need, they need him to talk more about this. Melissa, if you were in the super PAC war room of Team Trump, what would be the building blocks of trying to turn around these dreadful poll numbers that say repeatedly, even, even a lot of Republicans say they just don't see, they don't feel good about the economy and they don't see the president working on it enough.
- [39:02]
Melissa DeRosa
Well, I don't think anybody Republican, Democrat or independent feels good about the economy, which is why his numbers are where they are. I think first he's got to be honest about the problem and diagnose the problem and then talk about some sort of a real solution. And he came in saying that when he got elected, the price of groceries was going to drop. He made all these grand promises, and then the rubber met the road in a very impatient American electorate. And now his party is poised to pay the price for it. So he's got to be honest about the problem, what Americans are really feeling, because I think too many people that see him obsessing about things like ballrooms and redecorating the White House and wars abroad and not enough here at home and then lay out a real path forward on how they can deal with it in a realistic timeframe where people can start to feel some relief.
- [39:47]
Mark Halpern
Ben?
- [39:48]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah, I think there's two different things here. One is reality. And the reality is those that voted for Donald Trump feel like he's working very hard for them. He has a higher approval rating in the Republican Party right now than Obama, Biden or Bush did at this point in their presidency. Among his party, that number is extremely strong. And I think, you know that you have the base. They're paying attention. They realize it. Do I think there's things you can do politically in a PR way to let middle America or to let the undecided voters or those that are always just going to be a little bit cranky feel like you're doing more. Of course. Is the president obsessed over a ballroom? No, haven't talked about that in weeks on end. That to Democrats are obsessed with that using as a political talking point. But the reality, I also think is many Americans are going to the gas station and they're seeing the prices insanely low right now compared to they were under Biden. They understand that the prices of certain groceries have come down as well. Eggs was an obsession of the left and guess what? They're way down from where they were. And I also think inflation has come down from the heights of 9% plus under Joe Biden. So the president does need to do a better job of explaining that. I think having the McDonald's summit, for example, or what he's going to be doing next week is very important. And look, you got a PR message when you have so much the mainstream media against you trying to say everything's doom and gloom. The reality is things are way better right now statistically than they were when Biden was president. He needs to hit that home and talk about what else he's doing, including that $2,000 either tax credit or check you're going to get from the tariffs.
- [41:18]
Mark Halpern
You think we're going to get $2,000 checks from the terrorists for real?
- [41:21]
Ben Ferguson
I think you're either going to have a tax credit and I've talked to several different people that are pretty tight on this in and around the White House. It may not be a check that shows up. It will probably come as a tax credit was the last I was told 24 hours ago. But there will be a $2,000, real feel for the American taxpayer. The majority will actually get this. Now, the good news is if you paid your taxes and you're going to get a refund check, you're going to get an extra bonus of $2,000. They're going to probably make that work and they're trying to work through it. But I do believe before the midterms, you will see a real $2,000 benefit to most Americans.
- [41:53]
Mark Halpern
If you accept my premise, explain to me why. And if you don't accept my premise, just say, mark, you're wrong. I just see a paucity of original ideas for like 20 years in Republicans, Democrats on the economy. Like, where are the original ideas? A $2,000 tax credit's a gimmick. Where it's like the original ideas on housing, on health care, on where, why, why, why can't this country generate plausible popular ideas that will actually work? Not pr, not explaining what you've done and not trying to make people feel better, but where original ideas? Am I wrong? Are there original ideas that I'm missing?
- [42:30]
Ben Ferguson
I mean, the economy is the economy. I don't know if there's that many new original ideas when you're dealing with housing or interest rates or inflation. I do think the $2,000 isn't a gimmick. I think it's real money coming in from the tariffs. The president saying this is how big of a benefit this is going to be. Government spending is also down under Donald Trump, something he said he was going to be working on as well. And so I think if you can turn a $2,000 check into an annual thing or actually lower the cost that people are paying in taxes and make it feel real, intangible. That's unique. But look, voodoo economics is a great way of describing, you know, bs. I mean, by inflation, you want to talk about a gimmick? That was a gimmick. I think the American people want to be talked to in an honest way. They want you to be honest about where we are, what the perks are, what the benefits are, and what you're trying to do long term to change it. And if you do that, I think so many Americans are just so jaded towards what you just described, which is gimmicks, that they're saying, I just want something real, give me something real. If this is where we are, how are you going to make it better? And that's what the President's got to do a good job of selling next week.
- [43:35]
Mark Halpern
Melissa, does your party have original ideas on the economy?
- [43:39]
Melissa DeRosa
I mean, yes, but look, there are different ends of the Democratic Party, and I'm just left of center. And so there are gimmicks, I think, that our party puts forward that are. I don't know if they're original, but they're free, right? They want to give free everything. They want to tax. They want to tax billionaires, they want to freeze people's rent, they want to do a Green New Deal that's 14 pages long. That's not realistic. And I'm against all of that. But I think when we talk about being realistic with the American public, whether or not the price of eggs has gone down, the price of groceries has gone up, not at the same rate as under Biden, but it has still gone up. And you've got the Treasury Secretary out acknowledging that certain parts of the economy are already in recession. Anything that's interest adjacent is in recession right now. And people have a lot of frustrations in terms of buying homes, in terms of a lot of different things.
- [44:30]
Mark Halpern
Things.
- [44:30]
Melissa DeRosa
And so it's not enough in an American economy and an American public, where you can get same day Amazon delivery. Right. The average length of watching a TikTok is 14 seconds. You don't want to read a tweet beyond 120 characters. So there's a real impatience that exists for people who say, I voted for you, I gave you a year. Where is my relief? And whether there has been some marginal relief at certain points of things, it's not enough. And that's what we're seeing in focus group after focus group. And I think that's what you've seen in the 2020 elections.
- [45:03]
Mark Halpern
So when the Secretary of the treasury and the vice president, the cabinet meeting this week, say happy Days will be here next year. The economy is going to be going gangbusters next year. Is that based on data or is that just something they say?
- [45:16]
Melissa DeRosa
I was going to say, I think it's based on wishful thinking. And I think that to the point of the $2,000 inflation check. Look, I was in government for a long time. We did this stuff, too. You would do the checks that would come in an election year to provide some relief. And you'd probably put the governor's signature on it or the state legislature's signature on it to make people feel good as they're going to the voting booth. I just don't think. I think that the American public is so cynical that they see that for what it is now. And I don't think it's gonna have the desired impact. It'll be nice for a minute, but I don't think it's gonna change anyone's votes or opinion on the economy. So I think it's wishful thinking. But I think at this point, until we start to see some real movement, that's all that it is.
- [45:54]
Mark Halpern
Ben, is there some data in the Treasury Department, some secret monitor in the treasury secretary's office that says everything's going to get better?
- [46:01]
Ben Ferguson
I think their policies are what's going to make things get better. I mean, I go back to there's two different types of BS in politics, right? There's cash for clunkers, or there's the president saying, I'm going to roll back standards on admissions so that we can actually make cars affordable again. I mean, the idea now that you can finance a car for seven years and they're like 70 to 100 grand for a new car that has Ford on it is insanity. And so the president, I think, understands that. But I also go back to the idea that the economy is bad now is just not reality. And if you want this to be a unicorn economy, I don't think anyone knows how to actually do that and have everything Kumbaya. I mean, what does that look like? If you're demand, you're saying if you're a Mandani Democrat, you're like, all right, well, I want free health care, I want free housing, I want free buses and public transportation. I want interest rates at 1%, and I want the government to pay for my college. That's not reality. That will never be reality. Somebody's going to have to pay for that reality, and it will bankrupt this country. So I would rather have what Donald Trump is doing right now and being more intellectually honest about it, that, hey, there are things the government can do to get out of our way. I can roll back these standards to make cars a lot cheaper. This could be several thousand dollars on what you pay for a car that is tangible. I can give you $2,000 that is tangible. And so if you keep doing that, I think you're going to head the right direction. And also to put in perspective, I was looking at my phone a second ago, you've got a Dow at 47,000, a Nasdaq at 23 and a half, and the S&P at 6, 6, 8. Like, these numbers are insane. If this is a bad economy, I am more than happy to stay where we are all the way until I retire, because I'm going to be in great shape.
- [47:44]
Mark Halpern
But that's because you're in the market.
- [47:45]
Ben Ferguson
Well, but that's part of what I mean. You look at the Trump accounts, this is, this goes back to the bigger picture. You look at what Donald Trump is doing with these Trump accounts, this could be like life changing for millions of young people who get in the game early. So it's not so scary. The biggest reason why people don't invest is why they're embarrassed or they feel like they don't have enough money to actually invest. They feel like you must be making six figures, even think about investing. That is another thing I think can transform the country over the next 20 years.
- [48:14]
Mark Halpern
Right. All right. Let's talk about in this topic we talked about for 55 minutes, but we're going to talk about it for five minutes, which is both parties, I believe are now showing green shoots on grappling with anti Semitism. The problems within the parties are not symmetrical in the sense of who's where the anti Semitism comes from, how big it is. But both parties have an issue. I'll do John McLaughlin style style. Item. A number of prominent Republicans are taking on Candace Owens for anti Semitism, including our friends the other Ben and Meghan McCain are doing it, but other people as well. The turning point, folks are item op ed piece in the Wall Street Journal today by a longtime Democratic operative fundraiser saying she's leaving the Democratic Party because there's too much anti Semitism. Item. The new police commissioner of New York City are staying on Mondami's police commissioner, her brother at a closed event reported said Mondami is. What did he say? Threat to Israel. And then, and then item finally.
- [49:14]
Melissa DeRosa
Yes.
- [49:14]
Mark Halpern
Yeah. Threat to Jews. Thank you. And then last item is you're seeing on campuses there's far less tolerance for anti Semitism than there was before. So Melissa, you first. Is this, is this the Empire Strikes Back? Is this a rebalancing in both parties or, or not. And how significant is the pushback to you?
- [49:37]
Melissa DeRosa
I think that the Democratic Party has a real problem because the Democratic Party coming out of 2024 with what happened in Minnesota in particular in the primary with the leave it blank movement and then what happened in New York City with Mamdani, they're taking the party is taking all the wrong lessons that somehow in order to be successful electorally, you need to turn on, turn on Israel. And it's not just turning on Israel, it's also allowing for this far fringe to take over a more mainstream role vis a vis the stoking of anti Semitism. The fact that Sora Mamdani had a video that came out in the height of the election that said that the boot of the NYPD on the throat of the oppressed is laced by the IDF is not anti Zionism, it's anti Semitic. And nobody blinked. It was barely covered. And so I think the Democratic Party has a real problem. They're alienating Jewish voters. Voters. And they're driving them out of the party. And the question is, how do you correct for that going into the midterms and beyond? Because I think.
- [50:41]
Mark Halpern
But just give us half sentence. What's the answer to how to correct it? Because some things are happening to stand up to it.
- [50:46]
Melissa DeRosa
But I don't. Not in the Democratic Party.
- [50:49]
Ben Ferguson
You guys are embracing it.
- [50:50]
Melissa DeRosa
No, that's what I'm saying. I think in the Democratic Party, they're embracing this anti Zionist, anti Israel feeling.
- [50:57]
Mark Halpern
Which is, is it helpful to solve the problem? Alyssa, to have AIPAC run ads against members of Congress who they consider to be anti Israel, like Ro Khanna? Is that helpful to solve the problem?
- [51:08]
Melissa DeRosa
I don't know that it's helpful, but if you're aipac, you're gonna strike back. You're not just gonna sit there silently. I think that you've gotta have more voices from what is perceived to be the middle of the party speaking up in support of Jews and against anti Semitism and saying we're not gonna allow this fringe movement to take over the party. Because I think that has long term ramifications that are both bad politically, but also dangerous and destructive.
- [51:34]
Mark Halpern
Ben, the whole Heritage foundation thing somewhat in the rearview mirror. But again, I'm trying to be half glass, half full here. I see standing up to Candace Owens on this stuff to be a sign that people, they're not afraid of her. Standing up to Candace is a risky thing. Right? You take some risk. Do you consider that to be a meaningful, positive sign?
- [51:53]
Ben Ferguson
No, I. Look, I think there's a very big difference here between the Democrats and. I give Catherine a lot of credit on what her analysis here. She's spot on. The Democratic Party. I'm sorry, Melissa. Excuse me. I apologize. Melissa. Apologize for that. I think what it boils down to is the Democratic Party has embraced and said, anyone and all come in, and we're not going to police our own. I think that's why you have. Socialist Marxists and Communists have taken over the Democratic Party. They don't know what to do with them. The Mandanis are growing. The AOCs are growing. They are now the leaders of the party, whether you like or not. Chuck Schumer is not crazy, crazy enough for the Democrats anymore. That tells you something as well. And I think the difference is what you're seeing, the Republican Party is there's a lot of people, I'm one of them, who said, I don't care if it costs me listeners or speaking engagements or a book deal or whatever, I am standing up for Israel and I'm standing up against anti Semitism and I'm going to clean my party and call it out in my party wherever I see it. If that means I'm standing up to Tucker, fine. And I've known Tucker for 30 years. If I haven't stand up to Ken Owens, I've known her for a very long time as well. I'm not going to say, oh, well, I'm just going to look the other way and not ruffle feathers. No, like I am planning my flag. I am standing with Israel. Anti Semitism is wrong. We will excommunicate it from our party. We will call it out no matter what the consequences are. And I think that's what you're witnessing. The Republican Party right now is. And that's also the reason why you can name so clearly not just the anti Semites that claim to be conservatives, but also you can name the people that are standing up to them that are significant. You cannot do that in the Democratic Party right now. It's a big problem for them.
- [53:30]
Mark Halpern
Yeah, well, it's starting to grow. But you're right, it's not equal. Next up, we're going to talk about the person, not the most, necessarily the most interesting person in the world, but the most misunderstood, Ted Cruz, who has spoken out against anti Semitism and as high profile as any of the party and done a number of interesting things that lead me to believe a number of things. Next up, we'll explain Ted Cruz. Next up.
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- [56:31]
Mark Halpern
All right, we're back with Ben Ferguson, Melissa DeRosa. Ted Cruz. So misunderstood. And he's a good friend of Ben's and Melissa. You ever met Ted Cruz?
- [56:41]
Melissa DeRosa
I have not.
- [56:42]
Mark Halpern
All right, again, he's not. I'm not saying he's a perfect person. I just. He's done so many principled things in the last few weeks that he doesn't get credit for enough credit for. Because first of all, I think most of them are. He's taking the right view. But they're principled, right? Stood up to anti Semitism in the party. Stood up to use of the FCC to try to intimidate private companies, stood up on tariffs, stood up on education reform. Bet I'm missing one. What's the one I'm missing? He did one other big thing. Criticize the administration on something else. I don't remember what it was. The point.
- [57:11]
Ben Ferguson
There's been a lot lately.
- [57:12]
Mark Halpern
Yeah.
- [57:12]
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- [57:13]
Mark Halpern
The point is these are all what he truly believes. And, and, and anyone in public life who does what they truly believe, particularly if they're on what I believe, the right side. Kudos to Ted Cruz. But what this has led to is a number of people telling me, including when I was at Mar a Lago last week, name not name dropping, location dropping, one of the most smartest people in the Republican Party said to me, well, Mark, you know, Ted's running against JD Vance no matter what. I was like, oh, yeah, of course I know that. Well, then I checked. It turned out it's true. So, Ben, do you talk to your friend ted about his 2028 secret presidential campaign?
- [57:45]
Ben Ferguson
Look, secret. I think what Ted's doing right now, and I spend a lot of time with him, as you know, I co host a podcast with him, and he's one of my best friends, is he's saying, I am going to say what I believe. I am not going to be bashful. I'm going to, I'm going to stand up for what I believe in, even if that is maybe against something that somebody else in the party says. But I'm also going to work really well with them on certain issues. I mean, you look at the, look at Ted Cruz. He's been at the White House thing three times this week for major announcements, including the accounts that he was behind and really spearheaded. They've now turned the Trump accounts right. Like, there's certain things he's like, I will work with you, but if I disagree, I will say, why I disagree. Does that mean it's a presidential campaign? I don't know if I would say.
- [58:27]
Mark Halpern
Well, Ben, you've left me two choices. I'm sorry to interrupt, but there's two choices. Either he, you're lying because he secretly told you all about his, his secret plan to run for president, or one of your best friends is keeping from you the fact that he's secretly planning to run for president. Which is it? Which is it, Ben?
- [58:40]
Ben Ferguson
I'll go, I'll go back to. It's no secret that Ted Cruz, since he was very young, has said he wants to be president, United States of America. And so I don't look at it as a secret.
- [58:48]
Mark Halpern
I think non Non response, non responsive. He's running in 2028.
- [58:52]
Ben Ferguson
Everybody's telling me, look, I think there's a very good chance you're going to see Ted Cruz's name. I've said it multiple times on tv, but I think Ted Cruz is going to be in the mix. But I also think what he's doing right now is what he would do regardless of that. And that's why I think it's so principled. It's like, so a political operative would say, don't do that. Don't say that right now. And so that's what I like about it, is that it's not a campaign as much as this. What I believe. Yeah. Do I think he's running for president? Yes. I think Ted Cruz would be a great president. I've said that before as well. But I also think this is who Ted Cruz is. He's not going to back down at this age.
- [59:27]
Mark Halpern
100% agree with you. It has the, it has the advantage of he's doing what he thinks is right. He's speaking out and being courageous, but it's also going to help him. Melissa, imagine the donor community. I know it's the other party. He's taking the pro Israel position, the pro free market position, the anti tariff position. Wouldn't that. And the other piece, this is the most, the group that's most unhappy with the prospect of just a coronation of J.D. vance is the donors. The donors don't want to see, just give it to them, in part because they want competition, in part because they don't like a lot of the policies. So, Melissa, wouldn't, wouldn't, wouldn't Ted Cruz, in fact, be well positioned to potentially challenge J.D. vance?
- [60:08]
Melissa DeRosa
I'm not, I don't pretend to be an expert of Republican primary politics, but I would say that I also think that going into the end of Trump, you know, I think we may be like, you know, we don't know yet what the Trump MAGA fatigue is going to be in another year, another year and a half. Let's see how the midterms go. But I certainly think that there's going to be an opening with someone who's taking those positions and people who are hungry for a change and not just a coronation or an extension of, you know, Trump. Three.
- [60:38]
Mark Halpern
All right.
- [60:38]
Ben Ferguson
Sort of nation is a core word there, I got to say. I think the Republican movement, even if it wasn't Ted Cruz, wants a grand debate and they do not want a coronation. They do not want anything that looks remotely close to what happened with VP Harris? I. They want a grand debate. And look, if you look at paper, do I think the VP has the best chance right now of being the front runner? Of course. Does he have turning point and things like that behind him as an apparatus? Of course he does. But does that mean that voters just say, okay, everyone else, stay home. We don't want to have a grand debate in Iowa, New Hampshire? No, the Republican Party wants a debate.
- [61:13]
Mark Halpern
But let me ask you a question. What if Donald Trump endorses J.D. vance? They still want to debate?
- [61:18]
Ben Ferguson
I don't know. I think there's some MAGA people that just say, whatever Trump's going to say, they're going to do that. And that's certainly a solid base for you. But if I'm a candidate looking at the fatigue that could possibly come up, as she just described perfectly, is there a way to have that debate? And even if Trump gets involved early on, I think there probably is. I don't think this election coming up is going to be like it was with DeSantis v. Trump. That was. That was dumb. DeSantis should have dropped out way earlier. As soon as Trump was actually indicted, he should have immediately suspended his campaign. He made a huge political error there. But look, Donald Trump is not going to be on the ballot this next time, and Donald Trump is Donald Trump and no one else is him.
- [61:58]
Mark Halpern
If I was going to do a focus group to test how the base feels about Ted Cruz, geographically, where would be the smartest place to do it? And demographically, who would be the smartest people to include? If I wanted to get a sense.
- [62:12]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah, no, I think, number one, anyone that cares about national security and foreign policy issues, that would gonna rate really well for him because he's not an isolationist. He understands there's places you do need to get involved. He's also not in favor of going in Iraq, Afghanistan and that type of scenario as well. I think he would do very well there. I also think he's going to do very well with people that understand the economy and how it's growing, things like crypto and bringing things to America. I think he's very pro on that. He's been a leader on things like that with new technology and AI at the forefront. He's a good friend with Elon Musk on those types of issues. He would poll very well there. I also think on national security domestically, like the southern border, he has been leading for so long on border security that that will do well for him.
- [62:57]
Mark Halpern
Before we switch to Democrats, we'll go back to Melissa. Ben, I know he's your friend. Where would the weaknesses be in a focus group? What do you think people would say that would be less positive amongst Republican primary voters, caucus goers? What do you think his vulnerabilities are?
- [63:11]
Ben Ferguson
Look, I think. I think this is one of the things I love doing with him, is getting people to know Ted Cruz. If you have dinner with him, you realize he's a really likable and funny guy. He loves movie and pop culture. Those types of things are what I try to pull out in him when we do the show. And so I think those are things where we can improve because he is a wonky guy and loves the country, but he gets in the weeds on issues and sometimes you got to dial a little bit of that back.
- [63:34]
Mark Halpern
Melissa is a Democrat. She's already said you've never met him. What are your impressions of his personality? Some people think he's a huge phony. Ben. And I don't. Ben. And I think he's quite principled. What are your impressions of him? Just a person.
- [63:46]
Melissa DeRosa
I think that he could be. And this is a crazy thing to say about someone who's been in politics for as long as he has a little bit of a blank slate in reintroducing himself to people. I still think of Ted Cruz from his failed presidential run a few years ago, which was not a pretty, pretty scene. But I think that right now, people are so hungry. I think that there's an opening for Republicans who are willing to moderate, let me put it that way. I think that the MAGA movement is starting to fray. We've seen that with Marjorie Taylor Greene. I think we're gonna see that with the end of Trump. Because to your point, none of these people are Trump. Trump is Trump only he has that handle on the base the way that he does. And I think that with the rise of anti Semitism and the rise of socialism and the DSA and the Democratic Party, you're going to see a lot of politically homeless Democrats who are willing to revisit some people if they're okay in the middle. So I think that if Ted Cruz or if any Republican is willing to play more of a John McCain type role, more of a Mitt Romney type role, of I'm reasonable. I can be in the middle. I can talk to everyone. I may be from Texas and have this Texas draw, but I can talk to people in the Northeast and in the middle and in the the west coast, and I can be reasonable and I'll stand Up to anti Semitism. I think that there's an opening for any Republican who's willing to sort of meet people in the middle. And I think there's going to be a desire on the Democratic side to look for some alternative if it's someone who's palatable.
- [65:10]
Mark Halpern
You know, I love you both as guests, but my favorite thing potentially is you both talk so fast. Like, no one needs to put this episode on 2X, you guys. I love how fast you talk. Some in New York. I listen fast. All right, let's talk about the Democrats before we go. Monologue earlier in the program was about the nomination fight and reminding people, don't confuse strengths and weaknesses to win the nomination with strengths and weaknesses to win the general. But let's talk about the general. I'm going to give you a pair as a Democrat, and obviously it's in the future, three years, etc. Just tell me who would be the more formidable general election candidate against the Republican nominee? Tbd, everything else in the blender. Who would you say would have you would consider to be a more formidable general election candidate? Here we go. Governor Shapiro, Governor Newsom, Melissa Shapiro, Ben Newsom for sure.
- [65:59]
Ben Ferguson
He's the best chameleon I've ever seen in politics. On the Democratic side.
- [66:02]
Mark Halpern
Why would. Why would he be stronger than Shapiro?
- [66:04]
Ben Ferguson
Because I think Newsom is what he has. And what I worry about, I've worked on presidential campaigns before, is how fast he can just shed this layer of skin from things he has said or done in the past and act like it never existed. He is phenomenal at reinventing himself. That would scare me if I'm running a presidential campaign against him. So I also think he understands tv. He understands, like, looking good and nice on tv, how to dress, how to talk to different audiences. Those are some of the things even Bill Clinton had. That's an X factor. Barack Obama had. It's an X factor. Joe Biden never had it. Hillary Clinton never had it. Kamala Harris never had it. So if I was saying, who would I rather run a campaign against right now? If I'm running the president's campaign of whoever the Republican is, I would rather go against Shapiro than Newsom every day.
- [66:56]
Mark Halpern
Interesting. Interesting. We can call him the Culture Club candidate.
- [67:00]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah. I mean, he's a chameleon. It's unbelievable.
- [67:02]
Mark Halpern
There you go.
- [67:02]
Advertiser
All right.
- [67:04]
Mark Halpern
Pete Buttigieg or Rahm Emanuel. Melissa.
- [67:09]
Melissa DeRosa
Better general election candidate. Yeah, probably Rahm Emanuel.
- [67:14]
Mark Halpern
Okay. Ben.
- [67:15]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah, Ron. Because he's polarizing and he knows how to fight. He would do Pretty well on stage during a debate. So I would rather not be up against Trump.
- [67:22]
Mark Halpern
Okay. Melissa. Governor Beshear or Governor Moore?
- [67:26]
Melissa DeRosa
Governor Moore.
- [67:28]
Mark Halpern
Why?
- [67:29]
Melissa DeRosa
I think that he could have that it factor. I think that he is young. I think he's charismatic. I think that he speaks to the younger voters, I think he speaks to minority voters. And I think that he also comes off as someone who's very distinguished, has a good background, he served in the military. And I think that he could bring that change, you know, a new tomorrow, optimism to him.
- [67:52]
Mark Halpern
Ben.
- [67:52]
Ben Ferguson
More. He reminds me of Harold Ford Jr. In the way that when he kind of made his is that big speech, the rnc, everyone kind of talks about him. You don't really know what he's like hardcore left on. He doesn't really offend you. It's a likable guy that you'd probably want to have a beer with. It's that. Is that beer factor as I described. I also think you could take him a county fair and he could work the fair, and then 30 minutes later, you could take him into the polo club in New York City and he could work that room as well. Those are things that have nothing to do with, like, policies. It's the X factor. And I think he has more of that.
- [68:27]
Mark Halpern
The thing you said is a different variation. I say, can you go on Monday Night Football, the Tonight show, and what's my third one, Meet the Press county fair in the polo lounge. That's good. Good reading ground. All right. AOC Kamala Harris. Stronger general election candidate. AOC or Kamala Harris? Melissa.
- [68:46]
Melissa DeRosa
I'm not.
- [68:47]
Ben Ferguson
Those are neither.
- [68:48]
Mark Halpern
Yeah, neither.
- [68:50]
Ben Ferguson
They both suck.
- [68:51]
Melissa DeRosa
Yeah, they both lose. I don't care who they.
- [68:53]
Mark Halpern
All right, AOC And Newsom. Just shout them out. AOC And Shapiro.
- [68:59]
Melissa DeRosa
Shapiro.
- [69:00]
Ben Ferguson
Shapiro.
- [69:01]
Mark Halpern
AOC And Buttigieg.
- [69:02]
Melissa DeRosa
Buttigieg.
- [69:03]
Mark Halpern
AOC And Rom.
- [69:05]
Melissa DeRosa
Rom.
- [69:06]
Ben Ferguson
Rom.
- [69:07]
Mark Halpern
AOC And Bashir.
- [69:09]
Ben Ferguson
Oh, I go AOC on that one.
- [69:11]
Mark Halpern
Really?
- [69:12]
Ben Ferguson
I.
- [69:12]
Mark Halpern
Tell me why.
- [69:13]
Ben Ferguson
I think this year just. I. I don't see how that guy can appeal to a general election day. I just don't.
- [69:20]
Mark Halpern
It's so.
- [69:20]
Ben Ferguson
But.
- [69:21]
Mark Halpern
But just because when I'm doing my reporting on this, there are people who tell me Bashir is in the top three. Not for the nomination. But tell me why you think that. I agree with you.
- [69:30]
Ben Ferguson
By the way, those are the same people that said Hillary Clinton was likable and she had a 70. But he's a young likable. In a Democratic primary.
- [69:36]
Mark Halpern
He's a young, Southern, moderate male. Why. Why wouldn't he be Good.
- [69:40]
Ben Ferguson
I, I, you know who he reminds me of? You're gonna, I'm gonna get in trouble for this. Vivek. Like, everybody's like, oh, Vivek's so likable. And I'm like, is he, like, he can kind of come across a little annoying? Like, there's a little bit of, like, it tweaks you there the wrong way.
- [69:55]
Mark Halpern
All right, can we. Hold on.
- [69:57]
Melissa DeRosa
Annoying, but he's also, like, so forgettable.
- [70:01]
Ben Ferguson
Yes.
- [70:01]
Melissa DeRosa
What can you name?
- [70:05]
Mark Halpern
Let's let the American people decide if he's forgettable. Can we play the soundbite from Governor Beshear from his Thanksgiving podcast? Can we play that? Oh, I like Thanksgivings where, where a lot of family gets together, but I started cooking because of the anxiety, you know, that you can get with just that much noise and that much family. And that can sound strange, given what I do for a living, but it just gave me a little bit of an association escape. And so I like to be able to, to do part of the cooking. It just gives me a job. And, and then to, to, to enjoy, especially the, the dinner part itself.
- [70:45]
Melissa DeRosa
I'm asleep.
- [70:48]
Mark Halpern
You don't need the tryptophan and the turkey to fall asleep off of that. I just got to tell you, I agree with you guys, but I just non, stop, non stop have smart Democrats telling me this. Hey, go ahead.
- [70:59]
Ben Ferguson
In the sec, this is how we describe this. You may have in the SEC gotten invited to, like, we called it a swap or a date party by a really nice, sweet girl, and then 25 years later, you're sitting around with your friends and you don't even remember which friend went with her to the date party. It's not a negative. It's just not memorable. It's like, wait, did you go with, with Mary or did I go with Mary? Who went with Mary to that party? Like, that's how unmemorable the guy is. It doesn't mean he's a bad guy, but it's just, he doesn't have that.
- [71:27]
Mark Halpern
I'm with you. I'm with you. Melissa, you ever been to an SEC football game?
- [71:30]
Melissa DeRosa
I have not.
- [71:31]
Ben Ferguson
That may have fixed that.
- [71:33]
Mark Halpern
We got to fix it. But, Ben, let's set it up perfectly. We think in Georgia, Alabama. In Georgia. Like, what's the best Ole Miss, clearly. Yeah.
- [71:41]
Ben Ferguson
And anything that has to be beating the hell out of Lane Kiffin and lsu, that's just, that's where it's going to be next year. That's, that's, that's the whole ball Game.
- [71:48]
Mark Halpern
Melissa, if you went to a game at Ole Miss, it would boggle your mind. You would just be like, this is a whole different planet. There's a whole different thing.
- [71:56]
Melissa DeRosa
Well, let's do it. I'm okay. Thanks.
- [71:59]
Ben Ferguson
So, LS game, we now lose a tailgate.
- [72:01]
Mark Halpern
Lsu, Ole Miss.
- [72:03]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah. Oh, next year, it's on the calendar. Lane Kiffin's coming back, and you're going to hear a lot of go to hell LSU's.
- [72:08]
Mark Halpern
Did you support his being booed as he got on the planet again? Yes.
- [72:12]
Ben Ferguson
Dude, I said this the day we got it, I did it. I did a radio show. And so I was like, are you excited about Lane Kim? I was like, no, I'm not. Because I know I'm an abusive relationship. Like, I know who this guy is. It's an abusive relationship. I know I'm going to get screwed later in life. Like, it's a matter of time until it blows up in our face. So there's three. I said the other day, there's three things that go straight to hell. Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein, and lsu. And Lane Kiffin. So there's my list.
- [72:37]
Mark Halpern
Who's. Do they have a good team next season? Like, they have a good recruiting year.
- [72:41]
Ben Ferguson
You can buy. You can buy any team you want now with nil. And that's why he left. They said, we'll give you basically unlimited funds. And he loved. Look, he's a psychotic narcissist. He wants to be the center of attention. He got all the feel goods and that. Everybody loves him. He's the most hated man in Mississippi. He's the most loved man in ls in Louisiana.
- [72:58]
Mark Halpern
Melissa, just to translate this to you, Ben's passion for this would be like the two of us discussing where the best slice is in New York City. Like, that's how. That's how intense it is. All right, Ben Ferguson, host of so many podcasts, we don't have time to list them all, but including the Verdict with presidential candidate Ted Cruz. And the Ben Ferguson Show. Right? That's the name of your show. The Ben Ferguson Show.
- [73:19]
Ben Ferguson
Yes, it is.
- [73:21]
Mark Halpern
And America's New pundit. And Melissa DeRosa, Democratic strategist. And Melissa, plug your book. It's still germane.
- [73:27]
Melissa DeRosa
Okay, what's left unsaid? Get it on Amazon, Barnes and Noble. It's a great. I think you'll enjoy it, Ben.
- [73:33]
Mark Halpern
You should read it. It's a. It's a. It's a rite of passage. Coming.
- [73:36]
Ben Ferguson
I'm waiting for my signed copy.
- [73:39]
Mark Halpern
That's fair. Grateful to you both if I don't see you again. Happy holidays and thank you for teaming up. And I think, I think you, I think, Ben, you may start a third podcast, Ben and Melissa.
- [73:48]
Ben Ferguson
There you go. I love it.
- [73:49]
Mark Halpern
Thank you both. Happy holidays. Grateful to you for making time, guys. Yeah. All right, that's all we have time for. Believe it or not. Action packed episode. We'll be back on Tuesday. Brand new episode of Next up. Subscribe on YouTube to Next up or wherever you get your podcast because you don't want to be amongst the only people in your entire community who don't know what's coming. Next Up. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next week.
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