Podcast Summary

Next Up with Mark Halperin

Episode: Ted Cruz Eyes 2028 Challenge to JD Vance, First Look at Mark Halperin’s “8 for 2028” Dem Rankings
Date: December 4, 2025
Host: Mark Halperin
Guests: Melissa DeRosa (Democratic strategist), Ben Ferguson (Conservative podcast host, co-host with Ted Cruz on "Verdict")

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into early maneuvering for the 2028 presidential election, focusing on the Democratic "race before the race" for the nomination, the evolving Republican landscape, and a first preview of Halperin's upcoming "8 for 2028" list of likely Democratic nominees. Notably, the episode discusses Ted Cruz's positioning for a possible challenge to likely frontrunner JD Vance, analyzes the anti-Semitism controversy within both parties, the economic climate and campaign messaging, and debates the relative strengths of prospective Democratic general election candidates. The tone is fast-paced, analytical, and often candid, with direct exchanges and personal insights from the guests.

Detailed Breakdown

1. Monologue: Democrats’ 2028 Nomination Race

(04:17–33:29)

Key Themes & Insights

• Timing is now: Halperin argues it’s not "too early" to analyze the 2028 primary, as potential candidates and operatives are already strategizing.
• Fluidity and uncertainty: Unprecedented ambiguity in the Democratic field—no consensus on top candidates; “there’s less clarity ... than I’ve ever seen at any point in my career, either party.”
• Early state calendar still unsettled: The lack of a firm early primary schedule has “forced this delay and it makes it very hard to break through.”
• The three A's (credit Steve Elmendorf): Action, Attention, Authenticity are the core attributes to evaluate potential nominees.
• Fundraising dissected: Big donor, Super PAC, and grassroots fundraising are vital; grassroots prowess remains a wild card—"What makes a good grassroots fundraiser? We don't know."
• Candidate readiness: Many prospects will falter by "waiting too long" on money, message, and prepping their families.
• Vision matters: Most successful candidates (Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump) had a clear vision; Biden is framed as an exception.

Top Contenders Highlighted

• Gavin Newsom (CA):

  • Seen as “almost like the shadow president”; strong donor enthusiasm, especially from Hollywood.
  • Quote: “He’s captured a sense of resist Trump and build something broader for the whole country.” (22:09)
  • Faces heavy criticism, notably from within his base (e.g., Halle Berry’s public disapproval of his women’s health record) (22:59–23:25) but is fighting back, aiming to prevent the party from turning against him.

• Josh Shapiro (PA):

  • Labelled “the most underrated stock,” lauded for crossover appeal and focus on working class (“Trump voter type issues”) and willingness to define himself, even at the risk of intra-party friction.
  • Quote: “He’s extremely thoughtful and smart and ambitious...he's got the most understanding of how this works.” (25:09)

• Other frequently mentioned prospects: Andy Beshear (KY), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY), Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, J.B. Pritzker, Pete Buttigieg, Rahm Emanuel, Wes Moore.

Notable Quotes

• "If you gotta ask me [what you should run on], there's a problem here, because you shouldn't say, I'm gonna run and then figure out what you want to do." (16:10, Mark Halperin)

• “We have to be more culturally normal, we have to be a little less judgmental.” (19:39, Newsom at NYT DealBook, quoted by Halperin)

• On Harris’s odds: "She probably had the worst year of anybody...No one who I asked put her on the list." (31:00)

Timestamps:

• Vision and lessons from recent presidential victors: (31:43–32:45)
• Comparing Newsom and Shapiro's understanding of Trump and the electorate: (32:45–33:20)

2. Panel Discussion: The Economy, Party Messaging & Ideas

(37:09–48:27)

Democrats & Republicans on the Economy

• Melissa DeRosa:
  • Biden camp must “be honest about the problem and diagnose the problem and then talk about some sort of a real solution” as Americans are impatient and “don’t feel good about the economy.” (39:01)
• Ben Ferguson:
  • Trump’s base believes he’s working for them; points to improvements in gas and egg prices, and expects a $2,000 tax credit for most Americans pre-midterms (“real money coming in from the tariffs”). (41:20)
  • Defends the absence of radically new policy proposals: "The economy is the economy. I don't know if there's that many new original ideas..." (42:30)

On Gimmicks & Voter Cynicism

• Both panelists agree: American voters are cynical and impatient, unlikely to be swayed by one-off “relief checks” (45:16–45:54).

Notable Quotes

• “It's not enough in an American economy and an American public, where you can get same day Amazon delivery…There's a real impatience that exists.” (44:30, DeRosa)

3. Party Struggles with Anti-Semitism

(48:14–53:30)

Key Discussion Points:

• Both parties confronting anti-Semitism:
  • Dems face intra-party frictions (“fringe taking over a mainstream role”); Jewish voters increasingly estranged.
  • Melissa DeRosa: “The Democratic Party has a real problem ... they’re alienating Jewish voters and driving them out.” (49:37)
• Republican contrast:
  • Ben Ferguson insists Republicans are “cleaning our party” and publicly standing up to anti-Semitism, while Democrats are not.
  • Quote: “If that means I'm standing up to Tucker ... or Candace Owens ... I am standing up for Israel ... we will call it out no matter what the consequences are.” (52:07)

Timestamps:

• Examples of intra-party policing or lack thereof: (51:08–52:00)
• Ferguson on difference between R/D responses: (51:52–53:30)

4. Spotlight: Ted Cruz’s 2028 Strategy

(56:31–61:57)

Ted Cruz’s Positioning

• Halperin, Ferguson, and DeRosa discuss Cruz’s recent “principled” stands—on anti-Semitism, use of the FCC, tariffs, education reform—and his quiet build towards 2028.
• Speculation confirmed: Cruz is expected to challenge JD Vance for the GOP nomination, especially if donors and GOP elites want to avoid a coronation scenario.
• Ferguson: Cruz is “not going to be bashful,” stands on principle, “will say what I believe” even when it’s unpopular in his party (57:45–59:00).
  • Does Ferguson think Cruz will run? “Yes. I think Ted Cruz would be a great president ... But I also think this is who Ted Cruz is.” (58:52–59:16)

Analysis

• Donor base is wary of a Vance coronation; a Cruz candidacy would satisfy the GOP desire for a “grand debate.” (60:38, Ferguson)

• Cruz strengths: national security, foreign/domestic policy, working with disparate constituencies, especially on border and tech issues (62:12–62:57).

• Possible weaknesses: perceived as too wonky, sometimes unrelatable; needs to “dial a little bit of that back.” (63:10–63:34, Ferguson)

• Melissa DeRosa’s assessment:

  • Cruz seen as someone ripe for “reintroduction” to voters; could be room for a “John McCain/Mitt Romney” type moderate in a post-Trump era (63:46–65:10).

5. Rapid Fire: Democratic Candidate Match-Ups

(65:10–69:55)

Candidates compared on general election strength:

• Shapiro vs. Newsom:

  • DeRosa: Shapiro
  • Ferguson: Newsom, “best chameleon I've seen in politics ... phenomenal at reinventing himself.” (65:58–66:55)

• Buttigieg vs. Rahm Emanuel:

  • Both: Emanuel, for his debate mettle (67:09–67:14)

• Beshear vs. Moore:

  • Both: Moore, described as charismatic with an “X factor,” likability, broad appeal (67:26–68:27)

• AOC, Kamala Harris, and others:

  • Neither considered strong general election candidates. Consensus: “They both lose.” (68:46–68:50)
  • Buttigieg, Rahm, Shapiro considered stronger than AOC; Beshear dismissed as “forgettable” (audio clip played and panned live, (70:05–70:45)).

Notable Moments

• SEC football analogy used to describe Beshear’s blandness—a relatable, humorous detour (70:58–71:27).

6. Closing Highlights

• Encouragement to watch for next week’s full “8 for 2028” Dem rankings.
• Playful banter about college football, guest plug for DeRosa’s memoir ("What’s Left Unsaid"), and continued podcast promotions.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Gavin Newsom on Democrats needing to change approach:
  “We have to be more culturally normal, we have to be a little less judgmental.” (19:39, as quoted by Halperin from Newsom's NYT appearance)

• Halperin on candidate vision:
  “If you gotta ask me that, there's a problem here, because you shouldn't say, I'm going to run and then figure out what you want to do.” (16:10)

• Melissa DeRosa on anti-Semitism:
  “The Democratic Party… they’re alienating Jewish voters and driving them out of the party… you need to have more voices from what is perceived to be the middle of the party speaking up.” (49:37–51:33)

• Ben Ferguson on Cruz and the GOP:
  “I am standing up for Israel and I'm standing up against anti Semitism and I'm going to clean my party and call it out in my party wherever I see it.” (52:07)

Key Takeaways

• 2028 campaigns are unofficially underway: Insiders are actively making lists and taking sides, donors are lining up, and prospective candidates are building teams and testing messages.
• Democratic race is unusually wide open: No consensus on favorites; vision and authenticity seen as most likely determinants. Newsom and Shapiro stand out for their understanding of both parties and ability to appeal to general-election swing voters.
• GOP will likely see a contested primary: Ted Cruz is quietly positioning to challenge JD Vance, especially if Trump’s endorsement is not decisive or the base seeks an open contest.
• Both parties wrestling with internal divisions: Anti-Semitism is emerging as a litmus issue; Democrats especially struggle with left-flank activism, Republicans with policing their own fringes.
• Public cynicism and impatience are at an all-time high: Both panelists recognize challenges around economic messaging and the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of policy "gimmicks."
• Electoral ‘X factors’ matter: Charisma, broad appeal, and an ability to reinvent or present as a unifier are highlighted as key assets in both parties.

Useful Reference:

Key Segments & Timestamps

• Reported Monologue: (04:17–33:29)
• Economic discussion: (37:09–48:27)
• Anti-Semitism in both parties: (48:14–53:30)
• Ted Cruz and 2028 GOP dynamics: (56:31–61:57)
• Democratic candidate rapid comparison: (65:10–69:55)

This summary captures major arguments, memorable moments, direct quotes, and the natural flow of a fast-talking but deeply informed roundtable on emerging U.S. political battles heading toward 2028.