← Next Up with Mark Halperin
Next Up with Mark Halperin
Texas Senate Revelations + New 2028 Presidential Polling
01:11:02
Mark Halperin’s reported monologue delivers the truth about the Texas Senate race, including the actual factors that will determine if Ken Paxton or James Talarico wins. Plus, pollster Spencer Kimball joins the program with shocking new data on state of the 2028 presidential fields for both parties, while Steve Maltepes discusses the political bet Mark says voters and strategists should avoid making. Last but not least, Mark answers Nexters’ questions in the return of “Mark the Mailman.” Pressure - Focus Features: Go behind the scenes of the most high-stakes weather forecast in history to discover the true story of the meteorologists who risked everything to change the course of D-Day. 120Life: Go to https://120Life.com and use code NEXTUP to save 20% Bank On Yourself: Discover the retirement plan banks Don't want you to know about—get your free report at https://BankOnYourself.com/Mark Follow Next Up with Mark Halperin on all social platforms: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com...
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Commercial Voiceover
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Mark Halperin
Shop now@nespreso.com welcome to NextUp, everybody. All y', all, welcome in. I'm Mark Halperin. You know me by day as the host of NextUp, leader of the Nexters, but by night, or really by day and night, I'm also editor in chief of two Way, my live interactive video platform, where I host programs there as well. But glad to be with you. Thank you for tuning in. Good program for you today. We're going to focus a lot on politics and the midterms. But first, I want to thank you all for helping grow our YouTube subscriber base. Told you the other day, we're trying to get to a hundred thousand, which is a good number for YouTube. And we're getting closer, but we're not all the way there. So thanks to those of you who went on the YouTube channel and subscribed. If you haven't yet and you're within the sound of my voice or can see me, please go to the YouTube channel for next up and subscribe. It would really help us out and we'd appreciate it. Thank you. All right, Guest today, Spencer Kimball. He directs polling. He's also an assistant professor at Emerson College. And they've got some new polling data out that's so super interesting, both about President Trump, but also about 2028. We'll talk to him about that. And then the Philly godfather himself, Steve Maltepis, is here. We're going to. He's a professional politics and sports handicapper and author of Booked. We'll talk about the difference between polling and the prediction markets and his view on some of the hot topics in politics Right now. We'll talk to both of them about what's going on in the current races. But before they get, they get here, my reported monologue on the midterms. You and I are going to spend a lot of time together the balance of this year on midterm mania. And I want to focus today on one race in particular, the Texas Senate race. Now two nominees picked, Attorney General Pegging Paxton for the Democrat for the Republicans and James Talarico for the Democrats. We're going to dive into that race in specific. But I want to talk generally about my philosophy because some of you are very familiar with my work, some of you less so. I'm an old fashioned reporter. I'm not an advocate for either side. I'm an advocate for the American people and I'm an advocate for you to try to allow you to understand what's actually happening in these races. I use my gut sometimes, but I'm very repertorially driven, talking to a lot of people in both parties and independent analysts and I'm very data driven and, and I'm always trying to find where things are headed, what's, what is next up in this Texas Senate race. And I'm never going to tell you stuff I don't believe is true and I'm never going to tell you stuff that hides one point of view. I'm always going to try to give you all the points of view. And on this race, it's a good example where I've got really great sources, people I trust, track record of being accurate, not overly partisan. So they're spinning me who think this race is over, who think Talarico is not going to be the Democrat who breaks the losing streak that the Democratic Party has had in statewide races in Texas now for decades. And then I've got sources again, regardless of party, who think it's close. This morning on the morning meeting, Larry o' Connor said he thought it was like what he said, like 60, 65, 35. Kevin Walling thinks it's 5545. I hear a lot of respected people saying this race is right now 55, 45. The Republicans favored. I don't know anybody who thinks that the Democrats favored. But giving a Democrat, including one as controversial as James talarico, even a 30% chance to win this race, let alone a 45% chance, it's quite striking to me. And that differs from some. Deirdre Delisi, longtime Texas analyst, was on the morning meeting. She said she thought it was basically 100% chance, practically barring some unforeseen development, that the Republicans would win. And so this is a puzzle and if you're interested in politics, it's an interesting puzzle to try to solve where are we now? What are actually the chances that Democrats winning this race and what are the factors that will determine as we go forward between now and November? Do his odds get better? Do his odds get worse? So interesting to me. And, and of course every race, every statewide race has got some unique elements. But then every race also to some extent speaks to the national climate. And so I'm going to walk you through where I think we are in the race, what we know and what we don't know. And of course the what we don't know will play as big a role or maybe bigger in deciding who wins than what we know. And talk about again the specifics for Texas and, and some of the bigger lessons. First of all, what do we know Very hard for a Democrat to win statewide in Texas. Again it hasn't happened in a long time. It's probably, I should have looked this up. It's probably got one of the longest losing streaks for Democrats in any state in the country. The wider issue is Democrats inability to compete in the south and in the Mountain west in a lot of these states that just don't elect Democrats statewide anymore. And for the Democratic Party to be able to really compete to control the Senate, maybe get 60 votes someday in the Senate filibuster proof majority, they're going to have to win seats in red states and the influence of the Democratic Party will, will be much lower than it could be if they can't win Senate seats, Governors races in these red states. So it's hard to win for any Democrat to win in Texas that's just a reality take away it's Paxton versus Talarico. It's just hard. The demographics of the state are hard. Okay. You look at, at the voting demographics and try to say what, what, what's the breakdown? Where is it that, what's the wall for Democrats? Well they need to do well with all sorts of demographic groups that Democrats have not done well with in a long time. This week on two way tonight had had on a guest who put it in sharp relief who made it clear how difficult it is for any Democrat to win in Texas. This issue of demographics of how any Democrat puts together a winning coalition is a complicated one. Had Jim Kessler of Third Way, a moderate Democrat on two way tonight. Here's how he framed the challenge and this is a super interesting way to think about the challenge or any Democrat to win statewide in Texas. This S12 please.
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Spencer Kimball
Just mathematically for a Democrat to win Texas that Democrat needs to win 73% of the moderate vote.
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Mark Halperin
That is a very, very high bar.
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Spencer Kimball
That is not impossible to reach, but that is a very high bar. John Tester, when he lost in Montana last time around, he got 70% of the moderate vote.
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Mark Halperin
So like, wow, that, that gives you an idea. Yeah. So that's just one way to slice and dice the, the reason why Democrats haven't won in a long time in Texas. And the challenge, Talarico has 73% of moderates. Again, it's a little bit of back of the envelope, but, but Kessler's point is that's a high, high thing for, for someone to do, for any Democrat to do. And then, and then the second thing we know is Talarico is not the ideal person to win over Texas moderates. Why is that? Because he's got so many past statements on social and cultural issues, economic issues that are just, they're not going to appeal to moderates in Texas. They're just not. So we know, we know that Talarico is not ideal. Right. What we also know, again, working against Talarico is that MAGA media and digital media and the political infrastructure, both Texas and nationally, they know how to do this. They know how to do what we call in Texas football student body. Right. And you've already seen since the primary on Tuesday from Governor Greg Abbott on down. And Governor Abbott's got a big campaign kitty that he can spend on this race. They're already in a very unified message discipline way saying Talarico is not Texas. He's too liberal for Texas. And that's a problem. That is a problem. Here is one of many digital videos we've already seen. This is Ken Paxton ad released this week defining Talarico as not Texas. S3, please. This is Texas.
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Steve Maltepis
This is not.
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Mark Halperin
There are many more than two biological sexes. In fact, there are six. This is Texas.
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Steve Maltepis
This is not.
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Mark Halperin
The American flag is such a complicated symbol for most of us. This is Texas. This is not. They're going to call me a radical leftist.
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Steve Maltepis
This is Texas. This is not something that you love.
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Spencer Kimball
That's not family or friends.
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Mark Halperin
I love. I'm just saying this because it's on my mind. The transition children.
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Steve Maltepis
This is Texas. This is not.
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Mark Halperin
Our southern border should be like our front porch. There should be a giant welcome mat out front. This is Texas. This is not. It is now existential that we try to reduce our meat consumption. I am proud to say that our campaign has officially become a non meat campaign. This is Texas.
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Steve Maltepis
This is not.
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Mark Halperin
So I've shown that video to a bunch of people, including sometimes people who say, well, Talarico's got a chance to win for reasons we'll get to. And I show them that, and they say, nope, it's over. If somebody was thinking of running statewide in Texas, a Democrat, and they went to a campaign consultants and said, well, let me tell you about some of my past statements, and some of those were included, they'd say, don't run. So we know that Republicans will hammer that. We also know, though, on a positive side for Talarico, he'll raise a lot of money. Now, we'll see how much he raises from big donors who may not want to risk a long shot in Texas, but he'll raise a lot of money online. He'll get great press coverage. And we know he's running against a weak opponent. We'll get to that in a second. We also know, again, in the national media coverage, they'll never turn on Talarico. The Texas and national media, liberal media, will never turn on him. They love the notion of a Christian progressive, that he's young, that he's articulate, that he's a teacher, that, that he's very comfortable in the media, okay, we know all these things. We know that Talarico will be given every chance to win this race, all the money he needs, all the positive press coverage. Now, one thing we also know is Paxton did not win this nomination because of Donald Trump. And some of my colleagues are already writing that over and over again. Well, Paxton wouldn't be the nominee, but Trump. The reality is, the reason I think Donald Trump endorsed him when he did was because it was a foregone conclusion. He wanted to get in front of the parade. Paxton was way ahead, and that's because his main message is anti establishment and being tough on the border. And those messages allowed him to beat John Cornyn, an establishment figure, the incumbent, and also puts him up well for the general election in the sense that that's the mood of the Texas electorate. Not everybody, but that's the dominant mood. Tough on the border, anti establishment. Okay? Now we also know, though, that Paxton is a. Is a weak candidate, and that's why this is a race. That's why this is race. Doesn't mean it's Donald Trump's fault that Paxton's the nominee, is a weak general election candidate. He won because within the Republican electorate, he was better, better suited than Cornyn. But he is unusually polarizing, even by the standards of the way Texas Republicans have run. His ceiling is probably lower in terms of what he can win in a general election than a generic Republican. But he has the advantage because the base will be more inspired to have him to turn out for him than they would have been for Cornyn. But his weakness is manifest, and this is a weakness that comes from all the personal controversies. His trouble with the truth, trouble with the law, trouble in his marriage that's dissolving. Karl Rove made this point and looked at the data from in his column in the Wall Street Journal. Looked, and he knows Texas well, looked at the data and even before all these scandals became public and well known, look at how Paxton has done the last two times he was in the ballot. Yes, he has won statewide in Texas in the past, but you look at how he's run compared to other Republicans running statewide in the last two years. He ran. Go ahead and put that up. In 2018, he was on the ballot running for attorney general. And then again in 2022, he was on the ballot. And in 18, he ran 175,000 votes behind the average Republican, also on the statewide ballot, and then slightly better, 155,000 behind. But that's statistical. He's not been a strong statewide general election candidate. Okay. The issues in this race are not going to get much coverage, but what we know is almost certainly what will define the race is who's a bigger outsider? Is it the attorney general, who's a fiery MAGA outsider supported by Donald Trump? Or is it. Or is it Talarico? Right. Those are the things we know. What don't we know? We don't know how much money Paxton's going to be able to raise. He's historically not been a big fundraiser, very effective, but he's going to have to try because we know Talarico will raise a lot. And if he does raise money, will it be online? Will it be from the governor? Will it be from President Trump? We'll have to see how not just Paxton, but his side does. Will there be debates? What will they be like? That'll be an interesting factor. We don't know that yet. Demographically, we know that previously President Trump was helping Texas Republicans appeal to a group of voters who were more for Democrats historically, some of the suburban voters, young voters, black voters, Hispanic voters. Where are they going to be? We know that there's going to be a decline almost certainly up and down the ballot compared to 2024. But how big will the decline be? Okay, in the end, I think there are three big unknowns we don't know that are going to define this race. Okay. Number one, will the war end? The biggest factor in this race is not James Tallarico's controversial statements. Although they're a big deal, they're not a lot of voters discussed with Paxson's past actions and statements. The biggest factor is the environment for Republicans and that's the biggest factor around the country. The reason why the Republican Party is really in danger in these midterms is because the war continues, the high gas prices continue, disapproval of President Trump's performance on the economy and the war continues to be very high. The environment is the biggest factor. And can the war end in time? Can gas prices come down? Number two, does Talarico prove to be a transformational candidate? Regardless of the specifics of this race, whether you're talking about a Democrat winning the governorship in Iowa or a Democrat winning congressional seat in a red area, or you're talking about the Texas Senate race, you need a Democrat who's going to break through and change the historical dynamic. To do that, you need extraordinary skill. You need a candidate who's really transformational, who can expand the electorate, not just turn out all the die hard Democrats, but really expand the margins with a lot of the voting groups. Suburban voters would be one that, that's a huge deal. And then lastly, and this, what, this is what I think is probably the one that is the biggest factor, the single biggest factor determining whether this will be a race or not. And this is the factor that I think my, my colleagues in the media and, and analysts who say Talarico basically has no chance. This is the factor that I think they're looking at, which is what kind of candidate is Talarico gonna be? How skilled will he be in dealing with the onslaught? How skilled will he be against the guy who has run statewide? This is Talarico's first statewide race in dealing with the incoming and the efforts to define him. Will Talarico be thought of by the Texas voters as young, fresh, vibrant Texans, true Texan, contrary to the ad we just showed you, or will he be defined by the Republicans? And I think about that will be how he deals with what we've already seen thrown at him. He's done one interview already with CBS News where most of the appraisals of his explanation of past statements were not very favorable. But will there be new opposition research? There almost certainly will be past sermons, past writings, past votes, past interviews. How will Talarico be framed by those things? And how effective will he be in defining himself? This is the factor. You look at the Michigan Senate race, you look at the Maine Senate race, you look at some of these governor's races, this is the big factor. Voters may not like, may not like Paxton. A lot of them don't, but they know him, he's run before. And what Republicans are going to try to do to Talarico is what they're trying to do all over the country, not make it a referendum on do you like gas prices, do you like Donald Trump, do you like the war in Iran? But a choice election and to disqualify Talarico, we had three straight two term presidents, Clinton, Bush and Obama, all who won reelection by saying to the voters, well, the other guys, you can't imagine voting for the other guy. We've never seen Texas vote for someone who said the things that Talarico has said about trans, about meat, about the Bible, about God, we've never seen it. And for Talarico to define that, defy that rather is going to require him to define this race. Not about his past statements, but about his argument about why he'd be a better senator for Texans than Paxton. And his argument's not going to be super issue based. This is never going to be a big issue campaign. It's going to be about whether he can say this guy's corrupt like Trump. This guy's corruption is keeping your family from thriving. If Talarico can make the race about that, he'll have a chance to win. I'm still skeptical, but let's see as he gets his legs out under him. Let's see as a Republican attack start, it's possible this race will end before the summer's over because I'll have disqualified Talarico by then. Can the guy take not one punch, not two punches? Can he take weeks and weeks of punches that'll define the race? All right, that's my view on the Texas center race and more broadly we where these midterms stand. A lot of those same themes, a lot of those same factors, including the unknowns will define this midterm. Midterm mania for this week. As always, let me know what you think. How good are Talarico's chances? What do the Republicans have to do to win this race? How flawed a candidate is Paxton? Send me your thoughts nextup halperinmail.com that's nextup halperinmail.Com As I said before, please subscribe to our YouTube channel for full episodes as soon as they air, as well as exclusive bonus content from me and from the program. Go to YouTube.com nextup halpern. If you're listening to the podcast version, please always subscribe on whatever platform you listen to and make sure you have the automatic downloads toggled on as well. That way you get the programs right when we publish on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Thank you for being nexters. All right. We're taking a quick break. When we come back, next up here, pretty interesting new poll from the folks at Emerson College. Spencer Kimball, their director of polling and assistant professor of political and sports communications at Emerson, is next up from Focus Features, something exciting. It's from the producers of Darkest Hour. It's a new movie called Pressure, the Untold True story of D day. In the 72 hours leading up to the largest seaborne invasion in history, General Dwight D. Eisenhower, he faced an impossible decision that would determine the fate of the war. As allied forces prepare to land, two massive storms converge over Normandy behind closed doors. With the clock ticking down, Eisenhower must decide, send 300,000 men into nature's unforgiven fury or delay and risk losing the war itself. There's no safe option, only consequences. One decision would change the world forever. This Friday, experience a powerful story of courage and sacrifice. Starring Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser. Pressure must be seen on the big screen. It's rated PG13 and only in theaters starting Friday. All right, welcome back, everybody. Next up and joining me now, Spencer Kimball, Emerson College director of polling. He's also assistant professor of political and sports communication. Spencer, welcome to NextUp.
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Spencer Kimball
Mark, thanks for having me.
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Mark Halperin
You never get this question. I'll be the first to ask you, why is polling so controversial these days? And what methodology do you all use to make people reassured that this isn't fake news?
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Spencer Kimball
Well, you got to remember, polling's been controversial basically since its inception. So you can go back to 1936 where polling had a failure. But with all that said, when you're talking to a small audience of people and trying to extrapolate to a larger audience of people, people always have doubts about those results. Now, as communication and technology has advanced, so has Emerson College polling. So we're not collecting data face to face. We're not even calling people and making them talk to us. We're sending text messages to people, emails to people, maybe soliciting them online. And that's how we communicate to collect our samples. And this new technology, the new forms of communication, I believe, creates more representative samples than what we could have done in the past. And with that, I think our numbers speak for themselves.
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Mark Halperin
All right. Great answer. And again, we don't Put clown pollsters on here, folks, so you can say, Emerson Poll is a good poll. Now, I've said to you this before. Even the best pollsters, some polls don't work out exactly. So what we try to do is we try to look for trends. We try to look at lots of polls that are quality and say, where's the trend? What's the rough? Even with margin of error, even with the variance in polls, even with different methodology, roughly where things headed. And you've got polls today. We're gonna look at some numbers that do just. That doesn't mean they're 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're predictions about the future. They're snapshots of where we are today. And as snapshots of where we are today, they're damn interesting. So, first of all, I want to talk about the president's job approval is B2, please. And this is consistent with public and private data. I see everywhere. Talk about, Spencer, the trajectory of the president's job disapproval, which is higher than his approval. Where is it now? What is the significance of where it is for the midterms?
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Spencer Kimball
Well, we can see that when he comes back into office, Trump's approval is positive. Over the course of this administration, it has gone negative. As far as the public's view of him, where he's sitting in the mid-50s, his approval rating, if you look at that, that's also going in the downward direction now into the high 30s. And so you see that movement, that's probably a negative sign for Republicans trying to run in the midterm elections with an unpopular president on the top of the ticket. And remember, a lot of these Republican candidates are real Trump Republicans, just like we saw in Texas with Paxton. So we're gonna have an alignment within the Republican Party of Trump vote candidates, and we're gonna see if the president's approval rating now, it's a little stronger this month than what we've seen last month. It didn't go down as much as what we've seen, so maybe it'll turn. But what we see as far as the trajectory goes, bad news for the president as far as that approval.
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Mark Halperin
And people try to fog this up, but where does 55% in May of the midterm year as a disapproval number for a president? How does that compare to Donald Trump's predecessors in their midterm years?
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Spencer Kimball
Well, these are. These are pretty high, but not that outrageous. Biden was getting into the 50s by this point in 2020 in disapprov disapproval. So Biden peaks out in August of his first year and then his numbers start tanking. But the Democrats were able to hold on to some of the seats that they thought were gonna be more challenging. And we'll see if the Republicans are gonna be in the same spot, particularly in those Senate races. When you're looking at Texas, Ohio, Iowa, whatever, Georgia, Michigan, there's a lot. Maine. So in those races, we're gonna see if Trump's disapproval impacts the top of the ticket. And if that happens, some of these states that he wins by double digits might come into play.
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Mark Halperin
Yeah. All right, then let's look at another question from the Emerson Poll. This is, what do you think is the most important issue facing the United states? This is B1, please. And again, not, not like a huge surprise for anybody, but the economy is been the most important issue starting in January of this year. Every month you've tested it, it's been the most important issue. How does this compare to the norm and what does this say about the President's and his party's chances?
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Spencer Kimball
Well, when I looked at this and compared it to 2018, when the Democrats were able to win back 40 seats or so, health care was a much bigger issue. That was up in the high teens. Now we see health care lower. And immigration was also a bigger issue, we see that issue lower. So it looks like this cycle is going to be really focused on the economy and then secondarily will be threats to democracy. That was not as big of an issue eight years ago, but that one continues to percolate and it just hasn't gone away. And we expect voters to vote on that as well, particularly older voters. So the older vote, that's threats to democracy. Younger voters though, that's the economy, the affordable living, housing prices, that's what younger voters are concerned with. And we'll see if those issues get addressed.
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Mark Halperin
Yeah, the last number pertaining to 2026 is the so called congressional generic ballot. Explain for folks, what is a generic ballot? What does that question mean?
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Spencer Kimball
Yeah, we're looking here at where voters would vote in their House races, maybe in their Senate for federal races. And we're asking them in a generic congressional ballot test. There's 435 congressional seats up. How would you vote? And you generally see a split, maybe one side up a couple of points. But what you're seeing right now is the Democrats holding a pretty consistent lead nearing double digits. And that tells you that they got to win three seats in the House. This is telling me that they're going to pick up those three seats. Now, the Senate's a different conversation, but if that number continues to go up, like Trump's disapproval number going up, there may be a space for the Democrats to pull off some upsets in the midterms.
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Mark Halperin
Yeah, leave the poll up for this question up, please. So again, I tell people, if you're a Republican, if you're a Trump supporter, if you're hoping that November can defy history for your party, don't run from the truth. Don't run from the truth. Talk to any Republican who's working on a congressional race, House or Senate race, and they'll tell you, as I said in my monologue, this is the biggest factor in the midterms right now is the environment for Republicans is horrible. The only reason Talarico has a chance in Texas, it's the reason why it's possible that some House candidates, whether they're incumbents, are running in an open seat. Some Republican candidates could lose in districts Donald Trump won by as many as 10 points, maybe even more. And that's because this congressional generic ballot question has been around for a long time and it explains not as a prediction, but it's a snapshot of where we are, just how imperiled Republicans are. A nine point gap is massive. Doesn't mean it will sustain. It's not the only factor, not the only piece of data to look at, but and this poll from Emerson is consistent, as I say, with other public and private data. Maybe it's not 9, but even if it's 6, it does not foreshadow well for the Republicans. How do you decide when to do polls?
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Spencer Kimball
Well, we do a weekly poll with nexstar media every week and then depending on what races are up, we'll jump into that race. If there's a primary for nexstar, we do their debate polls. So whenever there's a debate, like New York's got some congressional races. So last week we got to do three congressional polls in those, the 7th, 10th and 12th. So each week it's like a box of chocolate. Never know what we're going to get. But we do enjoy our polling.
- [28:55]
Mark Halperin
And what would you say, and I'm sure these all apply to your work, what would you say are the three or four hallmarks of a poll? People should trust that it's quality, rigorous work. What are the three or four things somebody should say? Well, tick it off. This poll does this and this and this and it's methodology.
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Spencer Kimball
Well, one is their track record and that just takes time for people to Establish a track record. We've been at it now for 10, 15 years publicly. So you can see that track record, you know, flash in the pan is sometimes hard to make decisions off of. So that's something to always keep an eye out. And then the methodology, there's a lot of different methods, there's a lot of different ways we're communicating as people. And I just find that the online polls are skewed and not representative as far as getting the probability samples that we like to be able to use and to make those extrapolations. So using text messaging, live callers, any more probability samples than the opt in online panels is something to keep an eye out for.
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Mark Halperin
So besides Emerson, what polls do you look to with a lot of a high degree of trust?
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Spencer Kimball
I take a look over at Suffolk University, Dave Paleologus, he was my professor and mentor. So I keep an eye on his numbers. And we always get to play some games here on the Boston Common with different elections coming up and we sometimes have diverging numbers. But all in good, good, you know, fun. That's about it. I rely on our numbers.
- [30:26]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. All right. Again we're talking to Spencer Kimball of Emerson and about the new poll data they have. You did two incredibly interesting questions about 2028 and the party's interest in presidential and deal with this all the time because I cover this regularly. I think four years is not too long to interview for the most important job in the world. And people can say all the polls testing now is name id. I think is this your two polls, one of the Democratic field, one of the Republican field, prove it's not just testing name id because there are people in these polls with near universal name ID who aren't doing particularly well. So my first question is before we look at the data is how do you decide who to include? Because I noticed on both the Republican side and Democratic side you didn't include everybody who gets talked about. So how do you decide who to who to conclude in the survey?
- [31:15]
Spencer Kimball
So that's a great question because that's a major, major decision to make. So what we did was right after the elections in 24, we used, we did a survey with an open ended response and we said who would you vote for in 28? So to your point, it's never too early to be looking. So open ended question and then we let people write it in and then from there we took the top eight, nine responses and used those candidates on our list. We redid that open ended about a year later in November and again we used those answers to project the people on our list. Then within our surveys we ask this every three or four months there's an other option, someone else. And we let people fill in that space and we look at all of those answers and if we notice somebody is gaining traction, then we're going to list them in our next survey. So it's a, it's a living document. It's obviously candidates positions are going to change dramatically over the four year, three years that we're going to study it, but that's how we get to the names in this surveys.
- [32:20]
Mark Halperin
All right, ladies and gentlemen, these are amongst the two most interesting poll findings I've seen this year. To me as someone who's quite regularly interested in 2028, and I'll show you why. Let's put up a B3. We'll start with the Republicans, but they're both super interesting. Who would you vote for? Again, polling people who say they'd vote in a Republican primary for president in their state in 2028. And I see, I see undecided and then I see four names. Are those the only four names you tested? J.D. vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley?
- [32:51]
Spencer Kimball
No, no, there was, I think seven names in there. Kennedy. We put Robert Kennedy in because he's got a 2, 3% support, but these were the ones that made it to 5%. And that 5% threshold is generally for the debate stage. So that's who we show.
- [33:06]
Mark Halperin
Right. So Rhonda Sanders and Nikki Haley, both below, both at 5%. The news in this, and again it tracks with other polls that have been public and other polls I've seen in this conversation is if you go back in the Emerson poll to August of last year, so last summer, J.D. vance, 52%, Marco Rubio, 9%. Then the next poll they did in February of this year, just a few months ago, 52, 20. Still a big lead for Vice President Vance. And then now and again, this is what my friend Matt Drudge would call a shock poll. 36, Vance 35, Rubio margin of error. That means there's no difference between them. That's an extraordinary. And it tracks, of course, with the fact that as we've talked about here, Marco Rubio has gotten such great press coverage of late and JD Vance has the trouble that every sitting vice president has. It's hard to establish an identity with the voters. So talk about that rate of change. I don't remember anything quite like that. Talk about the change from 52 to 20 to 36 to 35. In terms of whether that surprises you. If you have any insight into what's driving it, what can you say about that change?
- [34:18]
Spencer Kimball
Well, there's clearly a game changer in the Republican primary from where we were six months ago, a year ago, where Vance was the presumptive nominee. Now, that's no longer the case. And what's interesting is there's always that surfacing phase, and usually that comes out during right after the midterms. It seems to be happening a little earlier this cycle, and it looks to see Rubio popping at this rate if he's able to maintain this momentum. Remember, right after the midterms, we're going to start running for president because these elections happen 12, 13 months afterwards. So these candidates are going to start announcing, and we're going to see what type of movement they get there. But if I'm Rubio, I'm pretty excited that I'm back in contention. And I really haven't made any announcements or done anything outside the norm. And that gives him a big opportunity to have another bounce, maybe when he announces.
- [35:08]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Now, I've said before, I do not think Marco Rubio will run against J.D. vance. So this poll and results like it could maybe cause Vance not to run. It could cause Vance to say maybe he should pick Marco Rubio early as his running mate. I don't think, no matter what, even if the next poll Emerson does shows Vance behind, I don't think that's going to really impact the reality again, unless Vance sees this and says, whoa, I need to step aside. And I suspect if there was a general election poll testing Rubio against leading Democrats versus Vance, my guess would be that Rubio would do much better. Because even as he's risen with Republicans, he's also, based on my anecdotal, not doing my own polling, he's also more attractive to a lot of Democrats for a variety of reasons. The other thing I'd love to see is some qualitative work. I'd love to do a focus group if we could recruit the panel of people who switched. Right. Because you got, obviously got some switchers in here of people who five, six months ago, nine months ago would have said they were for Vance, now for Rubio. I'd love to hear why. I'd love to hear why. Do you have a guess as to why? Why? Why is. Why is Rubio surged here?
- [36:25]
Spencer Kimball
Well, I think a lot of this has to do with President Trump, and Vance is a tie to Trump. So within the Republican primary, that's gonna be A good coalition. But come the general election, as you pointed out, maybe it's better to have more separation that Rubio has, and maybe he'll do better in those accounts. But I think some of the Trump policies are not popular with some of his voters, and I think they're taking that out on Vance as part of the administration. And, and Rubio is the beneficiary of this, being on the sideline a little bit, obviously part of the administration. But he seems to be running in his own lane, getting more positive coverage for his work. And as the voters are just kind of, you know, they're not focused in on the race, they're just, you know, seeing what's happening in the news. You can just see that movement, natural movement happening. And yes, if I'm Vance, I'm concerned, and then. But the question is, can Trump's popularity come back and maybe that would boost Vance back up there, or if Trump's popularity tanks like, you know, George Bush did, does that end it for Vance? So this tells me that there's a lot of moving parts and that the Republican primary is not stable.
- [37:31]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, well said. Last one is, is the Democratic nomination, 2028. And this one's also super interesting. And, and I think defies some people's conventional expectations about, about where everything stands. Five people in double digits. And so you tested more than this. But here are the five are at or near double digits. This is, this is a B5, please. And you can see the five who Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky at nine, Kamala Harris at 10, Josh Shapiro at 10, governor of Pennsylvania, AOC 11, Gavin Newsom, 16, and Pete Buttigieg is 18. Now, if you. What's the margin of error in this poll?
- [38:09]
Spencer Kimball
It's probably around 4.
- [38:11]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. So again, remember, folks, margin of error is not just overall, it's for each person. So it's possible that there's no difference between Andy Beshear and Pete Buttigieg, although based on other data I've seen, this seems like a good order. Buttigieg, you could say, well, he's in first. Isn't that interesting? And kind of against what a lot of people think. He's really not any different than Gavin Newsom, given the margin of error. But still the news to me in this, and it's so interesting again, to see the 5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 who emerge as double digits are close to it is AOC and Kamala Harris. They both, my sources are just constantly split on whether they're front runners, as some of My sources say, or in fact not going to, not going to be serious candidates. They have big name id, and so does Gavin Newsom, but Pete Buttigieg, Josh Shapiro and Andy Beshear do not. And yet they're, they're, they're not in the front of the pack. And you. And I've seen other polls that show, for instance, Kamala Harris much higher. So let's start there. Why do you think any, under any sense of why you have her at 10 and other people have her above 20?
- [39:18]
Spencer Kimball
Yeah, those, they're probably online polls. And I told you, you'd be very skeptical of the online pollster because it's based on name rec. The people taking the survey. It's not a representative sample. And so, yeah, they know of the candidate, so they're going to go that direction. We see that in our data. I mean, that's what happened in the Mamdani Cuomo race. The, the online pollsters had Cuomo, we had Mamdani because of the, the texting. And that's where the difference lies in the methodology. So in this case, I wouldn't be. I think Harris is holding back aoc. When I look in those numbers, she's taking that black youth vote and that would go over to aoc, but they don't maybe know AOC as well. So I think the two of them are jockeying and we'll see which one actually emerges. I would bet on AOC as a rising tide in Harris is dropping.
- [40:08]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, well said. The biggest change amongst these six is Gavin Newsom in a downward way from August when he was at 25% and the clear front runner again, just numerically, but this is still just a jump ball, wide open thing, down nine points over that time to 16%. Is that kind of decline something you can explain?
- [40:28]
Spencer Kimball
Prop 50 in August. Prop 50 was the redistricting in California and Gavin Newsom was all over the place going to fight Trump and win that battle. Now he does win that battle, but it doesn't seem like it's benefited him as far as popularity goes. He's out of the news and now his numbers keep dropping. It's Shapiro and Bashir whose numbers are popping, they're moving in the right direction. So that's what you want to see in each one of these snapshots. In Buttigieg, he's holding, he's holding his ground. He's not growing, he's not shrinking. He seems to have a base, particularly out in the Midwest. And we'll see over time, but he struggles with the black vote in the minority vote and in the Democratic primary, you need to win over part of that vote as well. So I think to your point, this is an open field and it's no longer clearly, you know, if Harris was to jump, she would not clear the field.
- [41:18]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, well said again and again, folks. This is, this is a snapshot of where we are, but you can see not just that it's wide open, but two candidates that happen to be the two female candidates who are said by many to be kind of grassroots juggernauts. This poll does just does not suggest. It doesn't mean they can't run and win, but their strength in terms of towering over the field is just not there. Spencer, if people want to see the poll and read more about it, where can they go?
- [41:44]
Spencer Kimball
Emerson College polling.com and I think Emerson polling on X.
- [41:49]
Mark Halperin
Okay, great. Spencer Kimball of Emerson, thank you. Grateful to you for being here and really appreciate you bringing us the data.
- [41:55]
Spencer Kimball
Thanks for having me.
- [41:57]
Mark Halperin
All right, next up, it's the Philly godfather. The author of Booked, Steve Maltepis is here. He's next up. Did you know that high blood pressure is the number one risk factor for mortality? One in two adults has it. So that means there's a 50, 50 chance that you are a walking time bomb. But here's the good news. You can take control of your blood pressure naturally without relying on Big Pharma. 120 Life is a Blend of great tasting super fruit juices that's been shown to help lower blood pressure. It's backed by hundreds of doctors and trusted by thousands of people who've seen measurable results. Here's the best part. It's completely risk free. You try 120 life for two weeks and if you don't see a difference in your numbers, you get your money back. Go to 120Life.com, that's 120-Life.com and use my code NextUp to save 20% and get yourself free shipping. This is serious stuff. This is your life we're talking about. 120 life can help.
- [42:57]
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- [44:00]
Mark Halperin
Next up and join me now. A guy with the exact same nickname that I have. It's a little haunting. Steve Maltepis is here. We're both known as the Philly Godfather me for decades. Steve just adapted it. He's a professional politics and sports handicapper and the author of the book booked. Steve, welcome and thank you for being here.
- [44:17]
Steve Maltepis
Thanks for having me on the show, man. I really appreciate it. Should have some fun today.
- [44:21]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Tell me about being the Philly Godfather for you. Not familiar. How'd you get that nickname? Everyone knows the story of why I'm known as the Philly Godfather.
- [44:29]
Steve Maltepis
Oh man, it started way back. My father had me in a hot dog cart in the city of Philadelphia working at the age of eight teaching us the value of a dollar. And you know, Philadelphia, by the time you're 13, 14, you're betting on sports, you're betting parlay cards. And next thing I knew I was making some money betting sports and met up with some guys from Vegas. And I was in a betting office in Bruno, Delaware county. And we started betting with all the bookmakers back then. This is 1988, 1989. And we won so much money that all the bookmakers were surrendering to us. And they called me the Philly Godfather of sports betting back then. And the name stuck since then, like early 90s, they really came up with that name.
- [45:09]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. What's the best bet you ever made?
- [45:12]
Steve Maltepis
The best bet. It came on information that wasn't factored into into the line. Back in 2020, I got information that Tom Brady was going to the Buccaneers instead of the Chargers. Everyone thought he was going to the Chargers that year getting traded. And I took Tampa Bay at 50 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. And you know, previous year buccaneers had a 7, 9 record, but they had one of the best defenses in the league. And you know, James Winston threw 30 interceptions which was unheard of. And now I got the information Tom Brady was going to the Buccaneers and greatest quarterback of all time. But midway through the season The Buccaneers were just 7, 5. So I started getting nervous about that bed. I had a Large wager on it at 501 odds. And then come playoff time when they beat the Saints and they got to the super bowl against the Chiefs, I was feeling pretty good about it. 50 to 1.
- [46:04]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. How do you. I know you're not going to divulge everything because we can't all be godfathers, but where do you look for your information? What are you reading? Who are you talking to? How do you, how do you stay ahead of everybody else?
- [46:14]
Steve Maltepis
I mean, I read about eight to ten hours a day. I read all the quantitative stuff, qualitative stuff, the metrics, analytics. Injuries are big in the NFL, but contact your network. We've been doing this since 1988. I've gotten sports professionally for 38 years, so I've made a lot of contacts throughout the years, know a lot of people in the sports industry and sports betting industry. So information is gold. Just like any other market, if you have information that other people don't have, you can get rich on it. And that was one of the scenarios where I made a lot of money on that wager.
- [46:44]
Mark Halperin
How much are you using AI now to try to figure out what, where to bet?
- [46:48]
Steve Maltepis
Well, two years ago we thought we developed a program that would predict the turnover differential in the NFL. And if you can do that, I mean, you take over the whole NFL market, sports betting market, a plus one turnover differential team wins the game 68 of the time and covers the spread 68 of the time at plus two moves up to 82%. And if you have three more turnovers than your opponent, you're going to lose the game 96 of the time and not cover the spread 96% of the time. So I got together with some guys, they built a predictive model using AI and some other factors. And we thought we had it where it would predict the turnover differential. And two years ago, we actually won 30 more positions than we lost at the NFL using it. But last year we ended up losing money. So it's a work in progress. And I actually outperformed the software that we had last year just by handicapping the way I handicapped. So, yeah, we thought we had it down pat, but it's a lot of trial error, a lot of process of elimination, and things change from a year to year basis. So you got to do a lot of reading. More than anything, you got to really know how the market works. You got to get ahead of the, you know, the pricing. Just like in the stock market, if you buy Apple 100 and it goes to 120, it was a good. It was, you know, a good buy. So if I lay six on the Eagles and the game closes seven, half or eight, it's a good bet. You know, you got closing line value. So that's what you're looking to do. Get ahead of the curve and ahead of the market.
- [48:12]
Mark Halperin
There's been an explosion, obviously, in people's access to betting on everything, not just sports. Also on politics. I don't know how long ago the only way to bet would be to go to Atlantic City or go to Vegas or, or bet off the books in a. In a. Well, I call an informal way. Some might say legal, but I would say informal. Steve, now, now, on your phone, you can do it. You can wager through the betting market, the. The betting markets, the. The prediction markets or, or, of course, all the DraftKings and everything else. Are we in the golden age of wagering? Is, Is every. This is everything awesome, or do you see some problems with where we are now?
- [48:52]
Steve Maltepis
I mean, I always talk about sports betting being Molotov cocktail disguised as a whiskey sour. I mean, it's fun, it's engaging when you first start doing it. And I do it professionally, so, you know, I do it to make a living. But a lot of people that are just getting into it, they gotta be really careful because it is addictive. It is on your phone. You have access to it anytime you want. You can place, I don't know, 20 wagers a minute. Where in the old days you had to go find a bookmaker, you know, get out of the corner of bodega, the bar. It was a whole process involved. You were betting with some, you know, underworld people. But now it's so saturated and it's kind of scary in a way, especially with some of the younger kids in college, because, you know, if you get addicted to it, it could lead to depression. So you really got to be careful if you're going to treat like entertainment, like, you know, you pay 500 bucks for a ticket, you go to concert, you have a good time for three hours, you enjoy yourself, the money's gone. Yeah, but you don't go to concerts every two seconds where this is a type of product that you can just keep betting, betting, betting, and if you go down and you start chasing, it could be a recipe for disaster. I treat it like a business, so it pays like a business. But you got to be really weird, especially with some of the younger kids today with the, you know, the legalization of sports betting.
- [50:00]
Mark Halperin
If I came to apprentice with you, I said, Steve, to Turn me into a great. Better on sports and politics. What would my class. What would my classes be like?
- [50:11]
Steve Maltepis
You're looking for anomalies, you're looking for aberrations. I'll give you an example. NFL football game level of talent is so close. And in the first half, if you have a team that turns above or three times, but you look at the yardage and the teams are pretty close in yardage and first downs, well, the second half is probably going to play out a lot differently than the first half. So you'll be able to find some value betting the second half number at a better price than you would, you know, the full game number because of the anomalies and aberrations that happen in the first half that aren't going to happen in the second half again. So that's one of the lessons you look for. Everything regresses back to the mean. In a lot of these sports, nothing's ever linear. When you're, when you're betting, you know, there's streaks. In the NBA, one team goes off for 14 straight points, but it always goes back to the means. And by the end of the game, in the last two minutes of the game in the NBA, things get really close. So a lot of things regress back to the mean. You're looking for aberrations, and you got to do a lot of reading. You got to do a lot of research. You got to look for predictive indicators. You got to know what the value of these players are coming back from injuries or if they are injured, what their production numbers are to the offense or the defense. Some of the biggest wages I ever made in the NFL was when two starting offensive linemen were out because I knew if you can't protect your quarterback, you can't win the game. I mean, it's extremely difficult unless maybe it's Tom Brady back there, right? Fight everything. But most of the times, you know, if you can't protect your quarterback, then you're going to have more turnovers in a game. And the biggest factor on who wins the game in the NFL, turnovers. So there are some of the things that I would be, you know, talking to you about and some other little secrets that I don't want to divulge right now.
- [51:48]
Mark Halperin
Understood. So obviously you're very data driven, right? You're very data driven. Very history driven. What if I was. I was your apprentice and I said, occasionally what I want to do, Steve, is I want to follow my gut and my heart. I want to follow my gut and my heart because I've got a really good gut. Like, I think the Knicks are going to be. Are going to beat the. Whoever the west wins the Western Conference, because I love the Knicks and because my gut is it's their year. What would you tell your apprentice if he said that to you?
- [52:18]
Steve Maltepis
I would tell anytime you make a decision based on emotion, it's usually a recipe for disaster. So you gotta be really careful. But intuition is a real thing. And intuition, you know, they've done a lot of scientific studies, especially for someone like myself who's been in the business for 30 years. So you might not be paying attention 100%, but something inside you caught a trend or something that's eating you up in your stomach, and you're looking to place a wager and something's holding you back. And then you just go back and you start digging a little deeper, you start data mining even more. Because there's layers of this stuff and he keeps just peeling off layers and layers and layers until you see the true power numbers of each and every team. Because a lot of stats today, there's millions of stats to look at, and a lot of people get, you know, paralysis by analysis. So you got to really look at the numbers that matter, the metrics that matter, and every once in a while, you gotta trust your gut. Sometimes the best decisions you make are the ones you don't. So sometimes it's better off just to lay off a bed if you have that intuition inside of you.
- [53:15]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. All right, let's talk about some of your political wagers. I don't know if you've actually put money down on these things or just. Just what you think. And I want to go first to what we talk about. The Vice President or the, the Republican nomination for president in 2028. Now, do you talk to Republican political strategists? Do you talk to people around Marco Rubio? Do you talk to people around J.D. vance? You do any of that?
- [53:38]
Steve Maltepis
No, I don't have access to them.
- [53:40]
Mark Halperin
Okay, so. All right, so you don't have access to that? I do. And am I right that you think Marco Rubio is the leading candidate for 2028? Right.
- [53:49]
Steve Maltepis
Well, he's currently a slight underdog to Vance to win the GOP nomination, but he's a slight favorite over Vance to win the presidential election. If you look at Cauchy, in my opinion, Rubio has a built in edge with the Hispanic voters. Over 36 million Hispanic voters will vote in the next presidential election. And that's huge. I mean, you got that built in edge and my wife's Puerto Rican and she voted for Trump. Her family all voted for Trump. And I brought up this imaginary scenario. I go, what if Trump was running against Rubio, who would you vote for? And she didn't even blink an eye. She said Rubio. So that's a big built in edge. You know, it's as simple as that.
- [54:27]
Mark Halperin
But, but are you, are you saying you think Vance or Rubio is more likely to be the nominee?
- [54:31]
Steve Maltepis
I think Rubio is more likely to be the nominee.
- [54:33]
Mark Halperin
Okay. So this one, this is, this is a good natured conversation we're going to have. I won't call it a fight unless you escalated Philly style. Like, like I've covered presidential campaigns since I was a kid. I talk to people in politics all the time. I understand a lot about what Rubio thinks and what Vance thinks. Rubio has said publicly he won't run against Vance. So you're, you're out there reading cow she and talking to your wife. And I'm doing reporting on something. That's my area of expertise. You're looking at these betting markets. These people don't know any. These people aren't talking to anybody. So how do you justify in this, this is not saying I think Tom Brady's going to be traded to the Buccaneers. This is just you speculating. Why should we take you seriously as a rigorous better on this, on this question? Based on, based on my expertise.
- [55:25]
Steve Maltepis
Yeah. Well, I back my opinion with cash and these predictive markets back their opinions with billions of dollars.
- [55:31]
Mark Halperin
Yeah.
- [55:32]
Steve Maltepis
So I kind of tend, you know
- [55:33]
Mark Halperin
what the prediction, I'm sorry to interrupt. You know what the prediction market said in 2016 about who the Republican nominee would be? You know what they said? They said Jeb Bush would be.
- [55:43]
Steve Maltepis
Yeah, but I had taken Donald Trump at 40 to 1. They won the GOP win the election. 2016. I bet on the win. 2020, I lost that numbers didn't add up. But in 2024, I actually went on every TV, radio show, I said, not only is Trump going to win, but he's going to win the popular vote as well.
- [55:59]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, but how do you, let me ask it this way. How do you decide in politics, not sports? Because I defer to you in sports. I just lost all my money on the Knicks. How do you decide when Kalshee and Holly market are right and when they're wrong?
- [56:13]
Steve Maltepis
Well, you got to do your research. And the fact that he has that built in edge helps him in states like New Mexico, Arizona, Texas.
- [56:20]
Mark Halperin
Now you're talking about the general election now? I'm talking about the primary general election.
- [56:23]
Steve Maltepis
Yeah, and even the primary election. I mean, when you haven't built an edge like that and you got a razor thin, you know, the odds are razor thin. I'm gonna lean towards Rubio with a built in edge, especially with the job he's done. A separate state. What was his confirmation? 99 0. If he decides to run and there's a 75 chance he does, according to the markets at -300, I think he's got a great chance of beating Vance. Listen, I love Vance. He's one of the most articulate, smartest vice presidents we've had in a long time. But I think the edge that Rubio has is, is, is going to help him get over the edge.
- [57:02]
Mark Halperin
Do you have all the money in the world you need and want?
- [57:05]
Steve Maltepis
No. You? Never.
- [57:06]
Mark Halperin
Okay, so don't, don't bet anymore on Rubio vs Vance until you check with me. I'm telling you, I'm telling you, Rubio will not run against Vance. He's just not going to run against it.
- [57:14]
Steve Maltepis
Well, see, you gave me some information that isn't factored into the pricing. So that's gold, you know, I'm telling
- [57:20]
Mark Halperin
you, I'm telling you, I'm trying to save you some money so you can bet more on, bet more on the, on the, on the Spurs. What about in California and the two big races out there, Governor and then the LA Mayor's race? What do you see there?
- [57:32]
Steve Maltepis
I mean, Spencer, Spencer Pratt has done an amazing job. He's raised what, 10 times more money than Bass? I think people are fed up with Bass. The fires, the crime is 1400 less police officers on the street than there was five or six years ago. The potholes in the street, the home situation. So if 99% of the people are fed up with the leadership and the inefficient minds that are run in Los Angeles, I think he can grab at least 25 or 30% of the vote. I don't know if he can win the election, but I went over 24 and a half percent of the vote in the first runoff for Pratt. He's saying all the right things and I think he even gets about 30% of the vote. You know, the other people that were running for mayor, their odds have dropped off completely. And I think he captures those votes. So I think he's done a great job and he can grab at least 25% of the vote. I laid minus 125. That it goes over 24 and a half percent.
- [58:21]
Mark Halperin
All right, but you're not betting on him to win the whole thing, are you?
- [58:23]
Steve Maltepis
Yeah, no, no, no, no.
- [58:25]
Mark Halperin
I predicted he'd win the whole thing, but then I tried to quietly withdraw it, and I didn't put any money down, so I didn't have the courage of my convictions. And what about the governor's race there? Who do you predict? Who do you, who do you like to get into the finals?
- [58:37]
Steve Maltepis
I think it's Becerra and Hilton. There's, you know, Cash says there's a 66% chance that happens. If it wins, you can grab a nice little 43% return on your money. So that's not, that's never a bad thing. The other possibilities aren't even close. Hilton versus stairs at 19%. Becerra is the odds on favor right now offshore to win the whole thing at minus 215. So I think it's going to be him and Hilton.
- [58:59]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Now, one race. I understand what your, what your posture is. You, you differ from the conventional wisdom and I believe also the betting markets. And it's an undercovered race. It's the Ohio governor's race. Amy Acton, the Democrat against Vivek Ramaswamy. Who do you like in that race and why?
- [59:14]
Steve Maltepis
Well, you know, I love Vivek and I think he's the better candidate for the job in Ohio. But if you look at many of the polls, the Vex got a slight lead, but the offshore betting markets have made active -125 favorites. So the implied probability is right around 56 she wins the election. And even Couch, she has given her 53 to 47 edge. I think the gas prices in Ohio is going to hurt him and his strong affiliation with Trump because there's some recent polls I read that said 63 to 77% of the country thinks Trump's solely responsible for the surge in gas prices. And it's hit Ohio more than any other state. I think their gas prices went up 57% in the past year. Vivek's got nothing to do with the price of gas, but his affiliation with Trump and people blaming Trump and when you hurt people's pockets, they get emotional and like I said, they make, they might make the wrong decision. And the poem doesn't add up with what the odds makers, with the guys that back their opinion with hundreds of millions of dollars are saying. So I hope I'm wrong. But I think acting, you know, if you bet on acting, it's the right side.
- [60:24]
Mark Halperin
All Right. That's a. That's against the conventional wisdom and against your heart, but your gut, it says Acton. And. And of late, I think you might be right. And I know even some Ohio Republicans are worried about that. All right, close with some Philly stuff. Best place to eat in Philadelphia.
- [60:38]
Steve Maltepis
Cheesesteak or restaurant?
- [60:40]
Mark Halperin
Anything. I have one meal time for one meal. Where should I eat?
- [60:43]
Steve Maltepis
You go to the saloon in South Philly. It's been there forever. Best Italian food. I mean, one of my favorite restaurants. I've been going there since I was a kid. You go to Ralph's. Best cheesesteak in the city. Probably Skinny Joe's or Del Rossi. They stepped their cheesecake cheesesteak game up. And now you got a seated role, you got a playing role. You got Cooper sharp and you got wagyu steak. Now you can order with your cheesesteak or filet mignon. Before, it was just a regular cheesesteak, frozen meat. Now it's all fresh cut meat. So the cheesesteak game in Philadelphia has been elevated.
- [61:13]
Mark Halperin
Single most iconic athlete in Philadelphia history. Man, I know my answer.
- [61:21]
Steve Maltepis
I mean, Pete Rose.
- [61:22]
Mark Halperin
You can't say Rocky.
- [61:24]
Steve Maltepis
Rocky. Imaginary pound for pound, greatest athlete of all time. Allen Iverson. I used to hang out with AI. We used to call him Bubba. 5 11, 175 pound. ^.
- [61:34]
Mark Halperin
I didn't say best athlete. I didn't say pound for pound. Who's the most iconic Philadelphia athlete? I know the answer, and I'm not even from Philly.
- [61:43]
Steve Maltepis
There's been so many great athletes. Dr. J.
- [61:46]
Mark Halperin
That's the answer, my friend. The answer is Dr. J.
- [61:49]
Steve Maltepis
It was Jordan before Jordan.
- [61:51]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. What if you were mayor of Philly, what's the one change you'd institute?
- [61:58]
Steve Maltepis
There's so many changes.
- [62:00]
Mark Halperin
I know. I'm only giving you one.
- [62:01]
Steve Maltepis
I'd sent the current Sixers team to Camden. Number one, the crime rates high, people don't feel safe. The taxes. They keep raising taxes each and every year.
- [62:11]
Mark Halperin
How would you fix a crime in Philly? That's my biggest complaint about the city.
- [62:14]
Steve Maltepis
Oh, God. Yeah. I gotta go back to the Rizzo days where he had everyone shook and nervous. I don't know. I mean, yeah, that's above my pay grade. I never ran for politics. But I would hire some of the sharpest minds in the world to try and get the job done, I'll tell you that much.
- [62:27]
Mark Halperin
All right. And if you're an amateur and you want to try some. Some sports betting, what's the best app
- [62:33]
Steve Maltepis
there's a lot of good ones. I mean the big ones are BetMGM, FanDuel and DraftKings. Go to the apps that offer you the most bonuses, the free play. This way you don't spend a lot of money, you get your feet wet. Don't bet parlays. The math is stacked against you. I speak at a lot of colleges these days with my book tour and I break down the math behind the parlays. It's like betting the lottery and you know, and that's all they're pushing. It's oversaturated bet this part that probably just bet straight bets. You're laying 110 to 100. The break even point is 52.4%. So if you do some homework and some research, you got a better chance of winning than losing.
- [63:06]
Mark Halperin
Price no object. What's the best hotel in Vegas?
- [63:09]
Steve Maltepis
Oh, man, the Wind's one of my favorites. Should stay at the Venetian for years.
- [63:18]
Mark Halperin
That's the right answer. Don't struggle for another. That's a great.
- [63:20]
Steve Maltepis
Yeah, that's, you know, I mean the tableau there for breakfast they got the lobster. Benedict is one of my favorite meals. It's unbelievable. It's so addicting. Las Vegas, you know, you feel like a billionaire when you're out there. Everything's so perfect at the Wind.
- [63:34]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Wins the answer. Steve, thank you. Grateful to you for coming on and sharing all that. And please stop betting on Marco Rubio.
- [63:41]
Steve Maltepis
Thanks and good luck, guys. I appreciate it.
- [63:43]
Mark Halperin
All right, thanks to you, Steve. Thanks for being here. And next up, I get to read some of your incredible feedback. That's right, Mark the mailman is next up. Hey, are you being lied to? They tell you to defer paying your taxes by saving in a 401k or an IRA because then you'll retire in a lower tax bracket. But if that were true, why are so many retirees in the highest tax bracket of their lives? It's time to get the truth and discover a better way to grow and protect your money. Bank on yourself. It's the proven retirement plan alternative that big banks and Wall street desperately hope you never hear about. It gives you guaranteed predictable growth that doesn't go backward when the market drops. It can provide tax free retirement income under current tax law, putting you in control of your future tax rate. And you have control of your money. You can access it when you need to with no government penalties or restrictions. And your money keeps growing even when you use it. You can get a free report that reveals how you can bank on yourself and enjoy tax free retirement income, guaranteed growth and control of your money. All great things. Just go to BankOnYourself.com mark and get your free report. Again that's BankOnYourself.com mark get your free report at BankOnYourself.com mark parents, have you
- [65:01]
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- [65:29]
Mark Halperin
you Monday.com AI agents took over my work and I absolutely love it. Chasing deadlines, writing status reports, updating stakeholders agents handle the daily grind. Now I stay in the loop only when matters create your own AI agent in minutes on Monday.com Next up, one of my favorite things we do here. I get to respond to some of the brilliant stuff you all send in. The nexters are a sophisticated group of people and three great messages from you all that you emailed in. I'm going to run through and respond. And we start with Paul F. Writes into Mark the Mailman this Enjoy your show. In a recent episode you discussed Rubio and vance prospects for 2028. You didn't mention a possible scenario where they both run together. But with Rubio at the top and Vance continuing as VP potentially for eight more years, assuming that's legal, then Vance stands up to President. He's young enough and this would allow him and his family to avoid the more intense scrutiny that he and his wife probably hate for their children for four to eight more years. Personally, I think Rubio is a stronger candidate with his likability and his ability to move more to the center than Vance. Thoughts? As we talked about with Emerson Poll, Rubio Marcomania is real. Marco momentum is real. But I continue to believe that they will run as a ticket. But not the way you you lay out. Look, advance doesn't want scrutiny for his family if he wants to take a break from politics and I don't rule that out. I think Rubio will run with Donald Trump's endorsement and be the nominee. Now things could change, but if it's Vance, I think it'll be Vance, Rubio and I think they may team up and run together. They're Good friends, their families get along, They've both got young kids and I think they think it is kind of a good project to do together. But if Vance takes a pass, and I want to wait to see till after his new baby's born whether he decides to go or not, advance, take a pass, I think it'll be Rubio by acclamation. If he decides to run, he could take a pass too. But I think both of them are smart guys and both of them know history. And the history says if it's your time, if it's your moment, you gotta go for it because you don't know if it'll be your time in four years or eight years. And if one of them, if neither of them run, if they both take a pass and Republicans nominate someone else and they win and then run, free election. Now they've cooled their heels for eight years, so lots could change. But I do not anticipate Marco Rubio running against Vance and I do not anticipate if they team up. Vance is VP again. But an interesting scenario, Paul. And I like the way you're thinking about the family part because that is a consideration. All right, a good one from Paul. Let's go to the next item in the mailbag. This is from. Let's see, next one is from vj. VJ writes this. Hi, Mark. I'm so fascinated by this campaign of Spencer Pratt's in la. I'm a Virginia resident, but I don't think there's a single race I care more about this year. The 2016 vibes are real. You have a charismatic, fast talking, straight shooting guy who has no business running. And he's utilizing grassroots AI. It's all free online to go viral. He's an amazing logo of a hummingbird. Do not discount a logo. He's staying totally in his lane. No distractions, no getting lumped in with Trump or maga. This is the future of AI meeting politics. The difference is that same meme army Trump assembled in 2016 is still here, still clever, still cheeky. But they have a novel AI arsenal at their fingertips. All caps from Vijay. This is the future Vijay. Incredible note, with one exception. I couldn't agree with you more. I'll get the exception in a minute, but you're absolutely right. Very well said. Characterizing why the Pratt campaign is not only so interesting but so important. Supercharging online memes, social media memes, by using AI is an extraordinary thing. And while others are doing it, Pratt's doing it in the most high profile way. And this campaign would not exist if his team hadn't harvested. It's the campaign itself, but it's also the meme makers. And the comparisons to Donald Trump are absolutely right. This line of Donald Trump's in 2016, what do you have to lose? This concept of taking somebody who really has no standard qualifications to be president and saying we're mayor in this case, you know, put them in because the career politicians aren't doing the job. Now, Donald Trump would argue as the head of a company, he had more experience, but the reality is bigger job than mayor. Here's what I disagree with, Vijay. You say Donald Trump not getting lumped in with Trump or maga. The Pratt campaign may have ended in terms of its realistic chances when Donald Trump a few days ago said nice things about Pratt and it's response to a reporter's question. And if he does make the runoff, and he might not, might not, there's a very liberal candidate who might edge him out, according to a new poll. But if it is Pratt versus Bass, and that's the most likely of the runoff situations in the general, you can bet you there will be relentless messaging by the Democrats and it's an overwhelmingly Democratic, anti Trump city to tie Spencer Pratt to Donald Trump. And so he's, he's been asked about it. He's, he's got a pretty good rap about it. But his ability to escape being quote unquote, lumped in with Trump and MAGA is going to be pretty minimal when his campaign is, is based on the same thing Trump's campaign is based on. I don't rule him out, but I don't think it's going to be easy to survive that. All right, last piece of mail in, in, in my mailbox here. Hey, Mark, enjoy the show. This is from Annie in San Francisco regarding 2028 presidential contenders. What about Mark Kelly? I've gotten regular fundraising spam from him with a headshot which tells me he's trying to raise his name, national name id. Mark Kelly's an interesting case. You remember he was considered to be Kamala Harris's running mate. Annie. And he certainly is ambitious and he said he's considering it. In the end, I think the personal strain on him and his family will be more than he thinks is worth it. Although he is certainly trying to leverage the moment. Smart people like Mark Kelly say if people are talking about me as president, a potential president or presidential candidate can raise more money, get better meetings, improve your career prospects, improve your leverage on Capitol Hill Senators, not all of them want to run for president, but lots of them do and they know when somebody's got the buzz and he's got buzz right now. So I think my guess would be in the end he's more about raising his name ID and seizing the moment than he will be about running for president. But this is, as we saw in the poll from Emerson, this is a wide open field. This is a weak field and he may find it a challenge to run based on the scrutiny and the fundraising. But if other people don't run, and I still, my gut still tells me some names that are often talked about will not make the race in the end. If there's a vacuum there, if there's an opening and he thinks he can come in relatively late and inherit the support that's now thought from donors and activists and politicians and campaign staffers, if there's support that seems now to be headed in another direction and other candidates don't run, I wouldn't be shocked if Mark Kelly runs. But I would be surprised. Thanks Andy. Thanks everybody for writing in again. Always interested in your thoughts. Send Mark the Mailman your thoughts, your emails right here to nextup halperinmail.com and let me know what you think. Again, thanks to Andy, Paul and Vijay. The rest of you nexters, you have the opportunity to be featured in our next segment of Mark the Mailman by writing in now. Thanks to you for all of that. And that is it for today's show. We'll be back on Tuesday with a brand new episode. Hope everybody has a great weekend. Remember, if you haven't done it yet, to subscribe to our YouTube channel to get us over a hundred thousand. Don't make me beg, just put us over a hundred thousand. Couldn't do it without you. Grateful to you for being part of two Way and an extra. Please join us again next week. Tuesday, Thursday so you always know what's coming next up
- [73:34]
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