Podcast Summary: Next Up with Mark Halperin

Title: The 2028 Invisible Primary, Economic Reality, and Booker’s Hamilton Audition with Meghan McCain
Host: MK Media - Mark Halperin
Guest: Meghan McCain
Release Date: July 31, 2025

1. Introduction

In this episode of Next Up with Mark Halperin, host Mark Halperin delves into the intricate landscape of the upcoming 2028 Democratic presidential primary, explores current political celebrity relationships, scrutinizes controversial advertising campaigns, and dissects the complexities of the American economy with guest Megan McCain and economist David Bonson.

2. The 2028 Invisible Primary Rankings

Mark Halperin initiates the discussion with his exclusive analysis of the 2028 Democratic Invisible Primary Rankings, a framework he developed since the 2004 election cycle to predict potential presidential nominees based on various critical factors.

Key Factors and Top Contenders:

• Money:

  • Jay Pritzker, Governor of Illinois, leads primarily due to his billionaire status, allowing significant self-funding of his campaign ([00:15:45]).
  • Rahm Emanuel follows, renowned for his exceptional fundraising prowess and extensive network among wealthy Democratic donors ([00:16:10]).

• Record and Issues:

  • Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania) and Andy Beshear (Kentucky) are highlighted for their effective governance records and policy achievements that resonate with voters ([00:18:05]).

• Visible Primary (Bio and Storytelling):

  • Wes Moore (Maryland) and Ro Khanna (California) stand out for their compelling personal narratives and ability to intertwine their life stories with their political agendas ([00:20:30]).

• Early States:

  • Wes Moore and Gavin Newsom (California) are poised to excel in early primary states through strategic campaigning and grassroots operations ([00:22:50]).

• Electability:

  • Josh Shapiro and Gina Raimondo (former Governor of Rhode Island) are favored for their proven track records in general elections and broad appeal across the electorate ([00:24:15]).

• Hang Test (Personal Appeal):

  • Pete Buttigieg and Josh Shapiro are praised for their likability and ability to connect with voters on a personal level, making them favorable candidates for voters seeking relatability ([00:25:50]).

• TV Presence and Media Savvy:

  • Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) excel due to their adeptness at navigating various media platforms and maintaining a positive public image ([00:27:10]).

• Commander in Chief Credentials:

  • Wes Moore and Mark Kelly are recognized for their military backgrounds, enhancing their qualifications for national leadership ([00:28:45]).

• Media Coverage and Buzz:

  • Gavin Newsom and Wes Moore dominate in garnering positive media attention and maintaining momentum through strategic public engagements ([00:30:00]).

• Digital Game:

  • AOC and Gavin Newsom are lauded for their sophisticated use of digital platforms to engage and mobilize voters effectively ([00:31:20]).

• Polling and Fire in the Belly:

  • Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg are noted for their passionate commitment to the presidency, driving their persistent campaigning efforts despite previous setbacks ([00:33:10]).

• Staff and Consultants:

  • Gavin Newsom and Rahm Emanuel are anticipated to assemble top-tier campaign teams, leveraging their extensive political networks and experienced advisors ([00:34:50]).

Mark emphasizes that these rankings consider past performance, current standings, and future potential, providing a comprehensive view of the Democratic nominee's landscape ([00:29:00]).

3. Conversation with Meghan McCain

Celebrity Relationships in Politics: Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau

Mark and Meghan discuss the unexpected rumored relationship between pop star Katy Perry and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Meghan shares her insights and personal connections, highlighting:

• Meghan's Perspective:
  "I love this pairing... he's looking at her like he's absolutely in love and smitten." ([31:16])

• Analysis:
  Both individuals experienced career slumps following Trump's rise, potentially fostering a unique bond over shared political frustrations.

Sydney Sweeney’s Advertising Controversy

The discussion shifts to the controversial advertisements featuring actress Sydney Sweeney, critiqued for their lack of originality and questionable messaging.

• Meghan's Critique:
  "I think they knew exactly what they were doing... Sydney Sweeney is in every ad ever." ([36:45])

Mark and Meghan express skepticism about the intentions behind the ads, discussing their potential impact on the brand and public perception.

Cory Booker’s Political Performance and Candidacy

Meghan offers a candid critique of Senator Cory Booker’s political demeanor and his chances in the 2028 primaries.

• Meghan's Opinion:
  "I found him dull and saccharine in a way... he's old news. I think he's boring." ([43:52])

• Mark's Defense:
  Despite Meghan’s view, Mark defends Booker’s influence and fundraising capabilities, questioning how he convinced prominent Democrats of his appeal despite personal impressions ([46:49]).

Tulsi Gabbard and the Jeffrey Epstein Matter

The conversation delves into Tulsi Gabbard’s recent activities and her alleged connections to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.

• Meghan's Insight:
  "Tulsi is one of my closest friends... people underestimate her at their own risk." ([52:16])

Mark and Meghan discuss the unfolding allegations, expressing uncertainty while highlighting Tulsi’s resilience and potential presidential aspirations.

4. Economic Analysis with David Bonson

Mark transitions to an in-depth analysis of the American economy with guest David Bonson, Chief Investment Officer of the Bonson Group.

Current Economic State: Mixed Data

David outlines the conflicting economic indicators, emphasizing that while some data points are positive, others signal underlying weaknesses.

• David's Observation:
  "The economic data is more good than it is bad... but there's a heavy politicization of the way people are thinking about the economy." ([62:26])

GDP Discussion

They dissect the recent GDP figures, noting that headline growth masks muted underlying economic activity.

• David's Breakdown:
  "When you look under the hood... the GDP number doesn't measure confidence either. It measures actual activity." ([63:24])

Consumer Spending and Future Outlook

Mark and David examine consumer behavior, particularly the anticipation of increased spending during key periods like back-to-school and holidays.

• David's Insight:
  "The American consumer does not stop spending over animal spirits or over fear of a tax. They only stop spending when they run out of credit." ([70:04])

Housing and Education Costs

The discussion highlights major concerns for American families: the soaring costs of housing and education. David analyzes potential administrative actions to alleviate these burdens.

• David's Analysis:
  "Most of what you bring up on housing is really a state issue... the federal government can hope for, is to be lucky with the timing of some of these things improving." ([71:42])

Trump’s Economic Policies

David evaluates President Trump's economic strategies, particularly his trade and tariff policies, from a free-market perspective.

• David's Assessment:
  "I believe that his natural instinct is supply oriented, which is deregulation, energy independence and removing marginal tax burdens to incentivize production." ([72:45])

Fed Questions: Powell’s Term and Next Chair

In closing, they speculate on the future leadership of the Federal Reserve.

• David's Prediction:
  "The Chairman Powell will serve out the rest of his term and the next chairman of the Fed will be Kevin Warsh." ([72:52])

Key Takeaways:

• Invisible Primary: Mark Halperin presents a comprehensive framework for evaluating potential Democratic presidential candidates, stressing the importance of factors like fundraising, governance record, media presence, and personal appeal.

• Political Celebrity Dynamics: Meghan McCain provides a unique perspective on the intersection of celebrity relationships and politics, highlighting how personal ties can influence public narratives.

• Advertising Scrutiny: The controversial Sydney Sweeney ads serve as a case study for evaluating the effectiveness and authenticity of political advertising strategies.

• Economic Outlook: David Bonson offers a nuanced view of the American economy, acknowledging mixed indicators and the challenges posed by political decisions and global uncertainties.

Notable Quotes:

• "Money to me is most important as a badge to get that virtuous cycle going." — Mark Halperin ([00:16:50])

• "I found him dull and saccharine in a way. And keep in mind like the politicians I'm attracted to are very different than him." — Meghan McCain ([43:52])

• "The American consumer does not stop spending over animal spirits or over fear of a tax. They only stop spending when they run out of credit." — David Bonson ([70:04])

• "He's extremely savvy about how the press works. They talk regularly to reporters offline." — Mark Halperin on Gavin Newsom ([30:50])

Conclusion

This episode of Next Up with Mark Halperin offers a deep dive into the strategies and personalities shaping the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, alongside a critical examination of the current economic climate. Through insightful discussions with Meghan McCain and David Bonson, listeners gain a multifaceted understanding of the political and economic forces at play as the United States navigates towards the next presidential race.