The Five Wars Shaping American Politics, Exclusive New NYC Mayor Poll, and Hunter Biden Uncensored

Summary

Podcast Summary: Next Up with Mark Halperin Episode: The Five Wars Shaping American Politics, Exclusive New NYC Mayor Poll, and Hunter Biden Uncensored
Release Date: July 22, 2025
Host: MK Media's Mark Halperin

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Introduction

Mark Halperin opens the episode by framing the current political landscape in terms of narratives, storylines, and conflicts. He introduces the primary topics: the five major conflicts shaping American politics, the New York City mayoral race with an exclusive poll, and an unfiltered interview with Hunter Biden. Halperin emphasizes the high stakes involved, particularly focusing on how these dynamics influence both local and national politics.

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The Five Wars Shaping American Politics

Halperin delves into five significant conflicts currently influencing American politics, presenting each as a "battle" with high stakes and prominent characters.

1. Rahm Emanuel vs. the Democratic Left (00:00 - 09:56)

   • Overview: Emanuel, former mayor of Chicago and White House Chief of Staff, is positioned as a centrist contender potentially eyeing the presidency. He faces opposition from the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
   • Key Points:
     • Emanuel’s attempt to balance appealing to the base and demonstrating electability.
     • His recent interview with Megyn Kelly, where he addresses trans rights and social issues, showcasing his willingness to diverge from the party's left-wing stance.
   • Notable Quote:

     Rahm Emanuel: “I think parents have to make that decision themselves. A child is too young at 18 to make that decision... it has to be made with a family.” (10:01)

2. Donald Trump vs. The Wall Street Journal (09:56 - 20:22)

   • Overview: Tension arises between former President Donald Trump and the Wall Street Journal, particularly over allegations linking Trump to Jeffrey Epstein.
   • Key Points:
     • Trump’s legal actions against the Journal for alleged false reporting.
     • The Journal's editorial stance under Emma Tucker, maintaining a critical view of Trump.
     • Implications for Trump’s relationship with major media outlets and press freedom.
   • Notable Quote:

     Mark Halperin: “This battle is worth watching... it tells us something about the Epstein battle.” (19:45)

3. James Carville vs. Eric Adams and Andrew Cuomo (20:22 - 36:43)

   • Overview: Legendary Democratic strategist James Carville publicly opposes Eric Adams and Andrew Cuomo in the NYC mayoral race, fearing their influence could redefine the Democratic Party.
   • Key Points:
     • Carville’s op-ed in the New York Times urging Democrats to distance themselves from Mondami.
     • The internal struggle within the Democratic Party between moderate and progressive factions.
     • Carville's concern over Mondami becoming the face of the party under Republican influence.
   • Notable Quote:

     John Podhoretz: “I think Carville is out there now... he's the tip of the spear, saying the guy needs to be stopped.” (12:00)

4. Scott Bessant vs. The Federal Reserve (36:43 - 55:47)

   • Overview: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant takes a critical stance against the Federal Reserve, positioning himself as a potential outsider candidate to lead the institution.
   • Key Points:
     • Bessant’s skepticism of Fed policies and leadership, including Jay Powell’s tenure.
     • The President’s interest in appointing an outsider to the Fed to align monetary policy with his administration’s goals.
     • Potential implications for economic policy and the Fed’s independence.
   • Notable Quote:

     Scott Bessant: “I have two strains that influence my opinion... One, there's a life decision and a child can't make that decision... Two, parents have to be involved.” (20:23)

5. Hunter Biden vs. The Democratic Party (55:47 - 77:17)

   • Overview: Hunter Biden's candid and confrontational three-hour podcast interview criticizes numerous Democratic figures, intensifying intra-party conflicts.
   • Key Points:
     • Hunter's vehement criticism of figures like George Clooney, James Carville, and David Axelrod.
     • The impact of his statements on the Democratic Party's unity and public image.
     • Questions arise about authenticity and the future dynamics within the party.
   • Notable Quote:

     Hunter Biden: “What do you have to do with fucking anything?... What right do you have to step on a man...” (23:00)

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Exclusive New York City Mayoral Race Poll

Halperin introduces a poll conducted by his friend David Burrell from WIC, presented to gain insights into the competitive NYC mayoral race featuring four candidates: Mondami (Democrat), Cuomo (Independent), Adams (Independent), and Sliwa (Republican).

• Poll Results Summary:
  • Mondami: 39%
  • Cuomo: 21%
  • Sliwa: 18%
  • Adams: 9%
• Key Insights:
  • Sliwa garners 70% of the Republican vote and 22% of independents, consolidating his position.
  • Mondami is leading, but high turnout among specific demographics could influence the outcome.
  • Cuomo shows potential in head-to-head matchups with Mondami, particularly among voters earning $50,000 or less.
• Notable Quote:

  John Podhoretz: “If you're going to focus on that to the exclusion of all else... he's the most focused one.” (38:54)

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Discussion on the Democratic Party's Challenges

In a conversation with Ben Ferguson and guest Steve Bannon, Halperin explores the internal and external struggles facing the Democratic Party.

• Key Points:
  • Brand and Positioning Issues:
    • The Democratic Party is perceived as less cohesive and more ideologically divided than commonly believed.
    • Public statements by figures like Kamala Harris and Hunter Biden have contributed to confusion about the party’s stance on key issues.
  • Critical Moments Leading to Current Challenges:
    • Immigration Policy Missteps: Democrats' handling of immigration has alienated voters, prioritizing ideological goals over public sentiment.
    • Internal Civil War: The rise of progressive figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has created fractures within the party, making unified messaging difficult.
    • Lack of Authenticity: Inconsistent positions on major issues like COVID-19 responses have led to voter distrust.
    • Failure to Define Leadership: Without a clear, unifying leader akin to Barack Obama or Bill Clinton, the party struggles to present a coherent alternative to Republicans.
  • Impact of Hunter Biden’s Interview:
    • Hunter’s public criticisms exacerbate existing divisions and complicate the party’s efforts to maintain unity and focus on combating Republican agendas.
• Notable Quotes:

  Steve Bannon: “The Democratic Party is against law and order... it's against the police.” (64:55)
  Mark Halperin: “They don't have that [leadership]... the Democrats don't have that.” (67:14)

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Hunter Biden Uncensored Interview

The episode features an unfiltered segment where Hunter Biden vents his frustrations towards various Democratic leaders and criticizes his father, President Joe Biden.

• Key Points:
  • Criticism of Democratic Figures: Hunter targets individuals like George Clooney, James Carville, and David Axelrod, questioning their influence and credibility.
  • Assertions About Joe Biden: Claims that Joe Biden’s poor debate performance was due to being given Ambien, not cognitive decline, although he lacks evidence to support this.
  • Emotional Outburst: The interview showcases a raw and aggressive side of Hunter, highlighting his discontent with his family and the Democratic establishment.
• Notable Quotes:

  Hunter Biden: “Why do I have to fucking listen to you? What right do you have to step on a man...” (23:28)
  Hunter Biden: “He's tired as shit. Give him Ambien to be able to sleep.” (68:34)

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Political Analysis and Lessons

Halperin and his guests discuss the broader implications of the NYC mayoral race and the internal struggles within the Democratic Party, drawing national lessons from the local dynamics.

• Key Insights:
  • Electoral Dynamics: High turnout among specific demographics, such as Hispanic voters, can significantly influence election outcomes.
  • Party Strategy: The Democratic Party must navigate internal divisions and present a unified front to effectively oppose Republican strategies.
  • Media Influence: The relationship between political figures and media outlets like the Wall Street Journal plays a crucial role in shaping public perception and narratives.
• Notable Quotes:

  John Podhoretz: “If you're going to focus on that to the exclusion of all else... he's the most focused one.” (38:54)
  Steve Bannon: “I'm not calling for transparency from Bannon like he's hiding something... we should urge our friend Steve to put that stuff out.” (73:04)

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Conclusion

Mark Halperin wraps up the episode by reiterating the importance of understanding these five conflicts in shaping the current and future political landscape. He encourages listeners to stay engaged and informed through the podcast's various platforms, including YouTube and social media.

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Notable Advertisements (Skipped)

As per instructions, advertisements and non-content sections have been omitted from this summary.

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End of Summary

Transcript

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[Mark Halperin]

Welcome in my beloved Nexters. Thank you for joining. I'm Mark Calperin, editor in chief of the two Way Platform and your guide to everything. Next up. Thank you for joining today. It's a crazy news week and often I think about things in terms of narrative and storylines and characters, and so often it's A versus B and you've got conflict. Sometimes they're very high stakes, sometimes they're just hilarious. But we've got five that I'll run through in my reported monologue. The folks who are being talked about by people I talked to who are in conflict at this moment, and we'll talk about the stakes involved in each of them. So stay tuned for that after that. The New York City mayor's race. It's been a big story here in New York, but it's a big story nationally. The stakes are very large for the city, the biggest city in the United States, one of the biggest in the world, but also for both the national Democratic Party and Republican Party. You can bet if Mr. Mondame wins the mayoral race that the Republicans President Trump, will make him the face of the Democratic Party as best that they can. And it raises a lot of questions about social media and how it's effectively used, about outsiders versus insiders, about the status quo versus change, a lot of issues. And so I had the opportunity this week to do something that I love to do when I'm wondering about something in the news, which is to work with my friend David Burrell of WIC to do a poll and we'll present it to you here on the program. I think it's the best poll I've seen. I say on David's behalf of this race and teases out some of the issues that should matter to you if you care about politics. It's a fascinating race unlike we've ever seen, with basically four candidates on the ballot in a general election that is wild and woolly and unpredictable. So David will be here to present the poll of New York City's mayoral race. And John Podortz, the editor of Commentary magazine, will join us in to break things down. He is a keen observer of Gotham City, so I'm looking forward to talking to two of them. And then in our next block after that, Ben Ferguson, host of the Ben Ferguson Podcast, will be here. He's also the co host of the Verdict with Ted Cruz, one of the best talkers in the universe of talkers. And Ben and I will talk about everything that's going on, including that extraordinary Hunter Biden interview, as well as what's going on with Donald Trump and the Epstein matters and what's up with MAGA in general at this time when we've seen what some are saying, a greater division between the president and his supporters than we've seen in the past, I'm not so sure that's true. Eager to see what Ben says. As always, so grateful to have you here. We're going to run through everything with a little bit of a step back. As I said on what's going on. This has been an extraordinary period ever since the Epstein story began to dominate the news. You've seen divisions in maga. Then you've seen everybody come together around the Wall Street Journal story, Stephen Colbert being fired has caused a huge kerfuffle. People on the left saying this is Donald Trump's fault. People at CBS basically saying, no, this is a dollars and cents decision. You've also seen this, as I said, this extraordinary Hunter Biden interview. It's a weird time. And summer sometimes does that, right? In summer, people say, well, everybody takes a break. The news doesn't take a break. We had a blowout several days where anybody was talking about was the Coldplay kiss cam. And that is now still out there. It's still pretty heavily covered. It's the ultimate water cooler story. But my point is this summer, ever since the Epstein story came front and center, we've been talking about that. But other things competing. And the president has done his best to have us talk about other things. He doesn't like talking about the Epstein story. And so we've seen the question of Coke, Mexican Coke or American Coke. We've seen the question of whether the Washington commanders should rename themselves the Redskins. And of course, of course we've seen the release of the Martin Luther King files. All of this happening at a time when again, the White House has been trying to move the Epstein story off the front pages. This morning the president's attorney general announced that they're now going to try to talk to Gisele Maxwell, that they want to see if she's willing to speak to the Justice Department. And of course, Congress is still toying with the idea of speaking to her. So the president's best efforts to put that aside notwithstanding, you're going to see more Epstein talk, I'm certain. And we'll talk about that here with Ben later in the program. It's important to remember that not everything Donald Trump, it just seems that way in the Democratic Party right now. I continue to monitor this. They have big problems, big problems. And sometimes it's easy to overstate them. But in this case, I think some indications are the problems are bigger than we realized. And I'll talk about that in just a minute. Very glad you're here. Stay tuned for everything. Next up, everybody get ready to do what we need to do. That's make America healthy again. And that starts with what we all put in our bodies. I am constantly on the move, working, traveling, fixing cars, changing tires, all that stuff. And when I need a snack, I need one that fuels my body, not poisons it. Paleo Valley's 100% grass fed beef sticks are clean, high quality and free from the chemical junk that so many other brands sneak in there. Most so called healthy beef sticks at big box stores. They are loaded with preservatives like citric and lactic acid, not Paleo Valley. 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Let's make America healthy again, one real food choice at a time. All right, next up, the five biggest wars in politics right now. As I said, I often think about covering the news in terms of battles, big characters, big themes, big conflicts that define the moment and sometimes define the long term. And for the Democratic Party, my number five battle is Rahm Emanuel versus the left. The Democratic Party is looking to see how this is going to shake out the party's move farther to the left than it has in years, maybe ever. And for people who remember Bill Clinton in 1992 and Rahm Emanuel does, that's where I met him. He was a fundraiser on the Clinton campaign in 1992, had remarkable success back then. Raising a couple million dollars was considered big success. Rahm Emanuel was part of the effort that Bill Clinton made to simultaneously reassure the base of the party but also move the party to the center with a premium put on the latter. Right now, Rahm Emanuel is clearly out there thinking of running for president. Did a bunch of interviews recently, including one with Megan Kelly. And in that interview, Megan, not surprisingly, pressed him on issues related to trans rights, particularly as it pertains to children. Now, Rom knows the Clinton model well. You can't just insult the base. You have to. You have to realize that if you're going to be the Democratic nominee for president, you've got to deal with the feelings and thoughts of the base. But you also, at this point, if you want to prove electability, if you want to be electable, you've got to demonstrate the capacity to stand up to the base when you think they're wrong. Generally, it works if it's authentic. Bill Clinton believed in welfare reform. He believed in the death penalty. They weren't positions he made up to try to prove to moderate voters that he was more centrist. That's the key. So Rahm Emanuel is out there now and he knows these questions are coming and he's trying to, in I'd say, somewhat self conscious way, execute the Clinton policy. Again, agree with the base when you agree with them, but when you disagree with them, stand up. Here is Rahm Emanuel in his battle versus the left talking to Megan McCain, Megyn Kelly about trans rights.

[Megan Kelly]

So do you believe boys should be able to play in girls sports?

[Rahm Emanuel]

No.

[Megan Kelly]

Do you believe that?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Is this the round robin?

[Megan Kelly]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

We'll do a quick rapid fire and.

[Megan Kelly]

Then we can move past this.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay.

[Megan Kelly]

Do you believe that kids under the age of 18 should be able to be put on puberty blockers and then cross sex hormones?

[Rahm Emanuel]

I think parents have to make that decision themselves. I think that is too. A child is too young at 18 to make that decision has to be made with a family and that choice. I think before somebody makes a life decision, they have to think twice about that.

[Megan Kelly]

So you disagree then with the Tim Walls policy in Minnesota where a child who doesn't get affirmed by his parents can go into Minnesota and get jurisdiction there and get the parental decision Overruled.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah. Look, I think these are life decisions and I'm also slightly both. I have two minds. Not two minds, but two strains that influence an opinion. One, there's a life decision and a child can't make that decision. You have to have some moral development and character and judgment and foundation for that. Two parents have to be involved in that. And I think that's for them to make. I don't think the public should be in that space.

[Mark Halperin]

What if.

[Megan Kelly]

I mean, there are some parents out there who are completely whacked in the head. There really are. They're. They're not.

[Rahm Emanuel]

That's not news, is it? But it's not.

[Mark Halperin]

Just, no, no, it's not news.

[Megan Kelly]

But to me it's terrifying because I.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Look, I. And the other. I left this out, but I want to repeat it is. I have a son and two daughters and they are physically different. And that's why when it comes to.

[Megan Kelly]

Sports, why did all the Democrats bail off at that point? A couple came out right after the election and they said what you just said and then they got brow beaten.

[Rahm Emanuel]

And then you got the answers in the question. I mean, that's not ever scared me. And you know, I used to say this to President Clinton and President Obama. Sound is not always fury. Sometimes it's just sound. And don't assume just because somebody's screaming at you, they represent more than their own voice.

[Megan Kelly]

Can. Should we be putting men in female prisons? Men claiming they're women?

[Ben Ferguson]

No.

[Megan Kelly]

And all right, here's my last one for you. Can a man become a woman?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Can a man become a woman?

[Mark Halperin]

Not.

[Megan Kelly]

No, thank you.

[Mark Halperin]

No.

[Megan Kelly]

That's so easy. Why don't more people in your party just say that?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Because I'm now going to go into a witness protection plan.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, again, guy was mayor of Chicago. He was a White House chief of staff, ambassador to Japan. He's got a ton of experience. Congressman from Chicago. But that little joke at the end. I'm going to go in the witness Protection program. Bill Clinton would never have said that. At least I don't think this is serious stuff to stand up to the wing of the party. He gave answers there that a lot of Democrats would be afraid of giving. He was pretty tentative, right? You heard him hesitate, repeat the question, think about it. But in the end, he said the positions that are more popular with the country, less popular with the base of the party, and he knows he could pay a price for it. And it's his biggest vulnerability. I think if he does run for president, we'll see. But that battle remains to be seen. But I'll tell you this. Rahm Emanuel is the only one right now waging it in a serious way. He's the only Democrat thinking of running for president who's going into the lion's den and answering those questions consistently in a way that at least is beginning the process of trying to demonstrate to voters that he will stand up to the base of the party when he disagrees. That's a big conflict. Whether it's Rahm Emanuel or someone else. The winner of the Democratic nomination, his history suggests, will be the person who best execute that strategy. All right, the number four conflict right now, Trump versus the Wall Street Journal. The Journal, of course, a few days ago, writing a story alleging that Donald Trump wrote a letter for Jeffrey Epstein's bawdy 50th birthday book. The president denies it. And this is a battle that's so interesting because of course, the Wall Street Journal is owned by Rupert Murdoch. Donald Trump and Rupert Murdoch have a long and complicated relationship. And if you look at the last 10 years, more often than not, Murdoch has not wanted Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee. He has. He has seen in Trump someone who does not support his positions on issues like immigration. And yet Murdoch and his properties are often supportive of Trump. Not the Journal, though. The editorial page has been very tough on Donald Trump consistently. And the news section has done very aggressive reporting, as it always does, and particularly now under Emma Tucker, who is their editor. They're tough on Trump. And he doesn't like it. And he did not like this story. There's a drama that's been reported on a little bit behind the scenes that Donald Trump says he called Rupert Murdoch to try to stop the story from running, that he talked to the editor, that his press secretary talked to the editor, said this story is false and shouldn't run. And then, of course, one, two punch. First, Trump sues the Journal and Murdoch and the reporters for the story, the kind of suit he brought before he was president between his two terms, but now bringing it as president. And then just the other day, the Wall Street Journal was supposed to be in the press pool for the president's upcoming trip to Scotland. They were booted out. Now, the White House, of course, has booted other news organizations out of the pool. In the case of Wall Street Journal or Associated Press, they basically made it a permanent thing. This is, as far as we know, just one time. But this battle is worth watching, not only because it says about what it says about Trump's relationship with Murdoch and with one of the most powerful newspapers in the country, but also about how the president as president will deal with the press. And then, of course, it'll tell us something about the Epstein battle. I don't think this case will ever go to trial. I don't think either side would like the discovery, particularly maybe the president, that would take place before any trial took place. But it is going to be part of the narrative of Donald Trump versus the Wall Street Journal. And as I said, the Wall Street Journal is somewhat of a stand in for Rupert Murdoch. So keep watching that one. All right, number three, James Carville versus Mr. Mondani. The mayoral candidate in New York City has freaked out many Democrats worried that the President of the United States and other Republicans will make Mondami the face of the Democratic Party. Carville went to a familiar place for him, the pages of the New York Times, the editorial page there, and wrote an op ed piece basically saying that Democrats need to define themselves in a different way than by Mandami. And it's interesting, Carville hasn't won a presidential race in 33 years going back to 1992, but he is still looked at by many Democrats as one of their best and strongest strategists. And there's no doubt whether it's writing in the New York Times or it's on his podcast or TV appearances, there's no doubt that Carvel will go there. He'll say things that others won't. There's lots of Democrats who believe, as Carville does, that they cannot let Mondami define the Democratic Party. Carville's willing to say it in public Now. Mannami, for his, for his part is interesting. He is not hitting back himself very hard at people criticize him. He tends to joke about it. He made a funny video about an upcoming trip to Africa, to Uganda, where he made made light of the fact that many of his critics have told him he should Go back to Africa permanently. This is just a short term visit. But this fight between Carville Madame is interesting because the business community in New York, many moderate Democrats, continue to strategize somewhat privately about how to stop him, about how to keep him from winning the general election. Those private strategies are taking place in New York, in the Hamptons where a lot of these rich people are. They're trying to figure out how can they keep him from being mayor. There's all sorts of talk about whether there'll be super PACs or other efforts in the fall in the home stretch of this race to stop him. Carville, though, is out front, kind of the tip of the spear, saying publicly in this op ed piece what many Democrats, as I said, are saying privately. The guy needs to be stopped. It's another battle worth watching. All right, number two, Scott Bessant versus the Fed. Scott Bessant is the President's Treasury Secretary. Of course, the treasury position is one that he's excelled in. He's uniformly given high marks for the job he's done in that position. First time in a government job like this. And Besson has thrived. Many times people come into the treasury slot from the business world where Bessant worked from the private sector, and they don't do well because it's a steep learning curve. People in private sector sometimes take an adjustment and sometimes they don't make the adjustment at all to dealing with government. Bessant has excelled on television, he's excelled in negotiations. He's excelled in the inside game of getting power in the government with the President, with the White House chief of staff, maybe the most powerful member of the Cabinet. And now he's turned his attention to the Fed in two ways. First, he's in charge of figuring out who to recommend to the President to replace the Fed chairman when either the Fed chairman is forced out from the job. Jay Powell is clearly trying to hold onto the position. The President toggles back and forth in public between saying he should go and he might fire him and saying, well, he can't fire him. And Besant has given that advice to the President, as have others to say it would be economically and legally problematic to try to remove the chair when if he wants to hold on, he probably can. So one thing Bessant's doing is focused on giving the President advice about who to choose. Another thing he's been focused on is whether he wants the job himself. Many people now say that if the President decides Bessant would be the right person to go to The Fed, that's who he wants there high stakes game. If the President's agenda basically, to a large extent domestically finished up when he passed the reconciliation bill, the so called big beautiful bill, maybe Scott Besant would find the Fed job more challenging. No one in the modern era has held both the treasury and Fed jobs and excelled. And so Bessant might find that an interesting challenge. So he's in charge of this, advising the President about what to do about Jay Powell. He's in charge of the search committee to figure out who should replace Jay Powell when his term ends. He's also been considered now as someone who might take the job. And he's now this week adopted a fourth position or role related to the Fed, and that is of Fed critic. He sounds like Rand Paul or Ron Paul now in his critique of an organization that within a few months he may be in charge of, here is Scott Bessett going super tough versus the Fed.

[Scott Bessant]

I think, I mean, look at the, as you said at the top of the, at the top of this broadcast, there were, there was fear mongering over tariffs and thus far we have seen very little if any inflation. We've had great inflation numbers. So, you know, I think this idea of them not being able to break out of a certain mindset, you know, all, all these PhDs over there, I don't know what they do. I don't know what they do. This is like universal basic income for academic economists.

[Mark Halperin]

Mr. Secretary, we had a, that's, that's pretty tough stuff, kind of mocking the Fed and sounding very much like an outsider. And it's interesting because although he's not worked at the Fed, Scott Besson is a longtime player at the highest levels of high finance. He's totally comfortable dealing with that world. He knows a lot of people in that world. But there he was sounding very populist, very much outsider. And I think whoever goes to the Fed, President Trump is looking for someone to approach it as an outsider who will shake things up, who will not greenlight a $2 billion reconstruction project which is currently going on around the Fed headquarters, who will not be business as usual and who will do what Donald Trump wants, which is lower interest rates. So whether Besson wants the job or not, that might have been a tell that kind of critique of the Fed, very outsider, anti establishment critique. But there's no doubt that he's laying the groundwork, whether it's him or not, to have someone go over to the Fed whenever Powell leaves, whether it's before his term expires or not to be a change agent at the Fed. And that's an important and interesting role because the President's disappointed when people say if it's not Besson, it might be someone who's currently on the Fed. Based on my reporting, I have my doubts. The President wants an outsider over there to do what he wants done, not someone who will beat business as usual. So that conflict Bessant versus the Fed, number two on my list. The number one conflict of the week is Hunter Biden versus everybody. Extraordinary three hour podcast interview Hunter Biden did and he spared no one. I heard from so many people after this interview aired. People who don't particularly like Hunter Biden don't particularly like that he's on the stage if they're a Democrat who loved the machete that he swung and hit some of the leading lights of the Democratic party. And at least one journalist here is Hunter Biden versus everybody and unbound opinions.

[Hunter Biden]

But him, him, him and everybody around him. Or not to be nice, number one, I agree with Quentin Tarantino. George Clooney is not a actor. He is a like, I don't know what he is. He, he, he's a brand. And by the way, and God bless him, you know what? He, I, he supposedly treats his friends really well, you know what I mean? Buys them things and he's got a really great place in Lake Como and he's great friends with Barack Obama.

[Ben Ferguson]

You.

[Hunter Biden]

What do you have to do with fucking anything? Why do I have to fucking listen to you? What right do you have to step on a man who's given 52 years of his fucking life to the service of this country and decide that you, George Clooney, are gonna take out basically a full page ad in the fucking New York Times to me and James Carville who hasn't run a race in 40 fucking years, and David Axelrod who had one success in his political life and that was Barack Obama. And that was because of Barack Obama, not because of fucking David Axelrod and David Plouffe and all of these guys and the Pod Save America gu who were junior fucking speechwriters in, you know, on Barack Obama's Senate staff who have been dining out on the relationship with him for years, making millions of dollars. The Anita Duns of the world who's made 40, 50 million dollars off the Democratic Party, they're all going to insert their judgment over a man who has figured out unlike anybody else how to get elected to the United States Senate over seven times how to pass more legislation than any president in history, how to have a better midterm election than anybody in history and how to garner more votes than any president that has ever won. And they're going to replace their judgment for, for his.

[Mark Halperin]

Not to mention.

[Hunter Biden]

Who's Jake Tapper's audience?

[Mark Halperin]

Jake Tapper? My mom or something.

[John Podhoretz]

I don't know.

[Megan Kelly]

Well, I don't know.

[Hunter Biden]

For real, though, I don't even think it's your mom anymore.

[Steve Bannon]

No, no, no.

[Hunter Biden]

By the, by the numbers, what influence does Jake Tapper have over anything? He has the smallest audience on cable news. And beyond that, I think that the book is right now on Amazon that he put out. I mean, his ratings just went to shit after he put the book out. You know, they did a two week infomercial for it. I mean, it was such a money grab, such a disservice to everybody that he serves. With that the.

[Mark Halperin]

I have so many thoughts about Hunter Biden versus everybody. It's why I made it the number one conflict. First of all, like I said, he swung the machete wide there and he hit a lot of people who aren't necessarily maybe as popular as they think they are within the Democratic Party. So second, everything he said there or nearly everything reflects the point of view of his dad, who he loves, including the use of profanity, which Joe Biden uses in abundance. In private. Hunter's taking it public here. But some people don't love Hunter Biden versus everybody in the Democratic Party, even if they might agree with some of what he said. They do not want to take the spotlight away from other Democratic leaders of the future rather than of the past. They do not want the party's focus to be fighting each other. They want the focus to be on critiquing Donald Trump. And I gotta ask the question, what is Hunter Biden's goal here? Because some of what he says is true, maybe. But his overall critique in this three hour interview, that his dad would have won reelection had he not been forced off the ticket. There's just no data to back it up. And that bottom line, that question of Democrats being honest about his father, both in terms of his electoral possibilities and also, as we've discussed here before, the degree of his cognitive decline, all of that is stuff that when Hunter Biden's in the conversation, the Democrats aren't having an honest conversation about it. So I'll be curious to see what happens to Hunter Biden versus everybody. Most of everybody, not everybody, but most of them turn the other cheek. We'll see if that conflict is a two day wonder or whether Hunter or the people. And everybody keep it going. Those are your five conflicts that I'm watching right now. I hope you enjoyed it. Tell me what you thought about my list of 5 conflicts or today's episode overall. Send me an email. You can send it to nextup halperinmail.com that's nextup halpern gmail.com you can always find this program if you're looking for it or looking to recommend it on X Instagram and TikTok, our handle there at NextUp Halpern. And of course you can watch the program if you want to see the pretty pictures and not just listen on YouTube. It's YouTube.comextuphalperin but also always a podcast as well. All right, next up here, David Burrell, my pollster buddy, and John Podoritz. We have an exciting and I think great new poll about the New York City mayor's race, putting it in a national contest that political junkies from sea to shining sea can love. David Burrell and John Podoritz. And then next up after that, one of our favorite talkers will join us. Ben Ferguson will be here. But first, next up, David Burrell and John Podoritz. We all know this hard truth. The American dream has changed. You can forget the white picket fence. For many Americans, the real dream is getting out of debt. If you're feeling the pressure from rising prices, mounting credit card debt and just trying to stay afloat, there's one thing you should know. There is a way out. It's called done with debt. They've got just one goal, break you free from debt permanently. They're not pushing loans or bankruptcy. Instead, their tough negotiators go straight to your creditors, slashing what you owe, wiping out interest and eliminating penalties. They don't stop until your debt is gone. And the best part is most of their clients see more money in their pocket. And in the very first month, you've worked way too hard to let debt steal your future. With Done with Debt, your dream of being debt free is actually possible. With donewithdebt.com, you can talk with one of their experts. It's completely free. Now. Some of their solutions are time sensitive. So you need to not wait. Act now. Go to donewithdebt.com that's donewithdebt.com you just.

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[Mark Halperin]

Everything in New York is a national story, let's face it. But some things are more national than others. And the current New York City mayor race is a barn burner. Four candidates likely be on the general election ballot making a difference. And the outcome couldn't be more important. Not just who will govern the largest and most important city in America, but also the national implications. Issues like how to use social media, socialism, attitudes towards Israel, and who will be the face of each party. Who will define the Democratic Party? So I asked my friend David Burrell, who's the best pollster I know of wic, to figure out what's going on in the race and he did. Joining us now, David Burrell to present his poll findings and John Podoritz of Commentary to chime in. John is a resident of Gotham City and I would say not a disinterested party or an uninterested party in the outcome. Gentlemen, welcome in.

[John Podhoretz]

Thank you.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, David, let's get right to the poll. And again, I think people will see some familiar questions here if you've been following the race, but also some different ones that we think get to the bottom of what's actually going on and what's what may be likely to happen first in the four way race. This is a four way contest between Mr. Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, Andrew Cuomo, independent candidate Eric Adams, the incumbent mayor, also running as an independent, and then Curtis Sliwa, the Republican in the four way race. You can see Mondami's ahead 39% of the vote, Cuomo is second to 21, Sliywa 18 and Eric Adams 9. And if you look at, if you look at the cross tabs here, David, one thing that jumps out to me is Sliwa is getting 70% of the Republican vote and, and 22% of the independents, which puts them basically in league with the others. There's no way Mandami will lose if, if that persists, I would say, oh, that's absolutely right.

[Ben Ferguson]

You know, one of the key takeaways to jump right off the page is that this crowded ballot is going to be a very difficult task for either Adams or Cuomo to win or be competitive if the ballot stays like it is. And you know, that's jumping right off the page.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. John, you're familiar with the dynamics of politics. I don't get the sense any of those three guys are getting out of the race. I think the hope for Adams or Cuomo is that one of them basically deflates and voters say, if you don't want Mondami, there's only one choice, either Sliwa, the Republican nominee, or either Adams or Cuomo. Is that how you see the dynamic? And, and is it possible that that deflation will take place?

[John Podhoretz]

I'm very relieved to get this poll because it explains something to me that has been a mystery, which is Cuomo's determined persistence to stay in the race, which I think most people thought after his embarrassing showing on the ranked choice first ballot that he wasn't gonna expose himself to more humiliation and would just simply fade away. Leave it to sort of this three way contest between Adams, Lewa and Mandani. But the poll that, that you have here shows that if you were to get though you're not, but if you were to get Cuomo in a head to head with Mamdani, according to your, according to the WIC poll here, Cuomo would win. So he must be seeing this number and saying, okay, I'm the most valu viable person against Mamdani. The problem is that's not how it's going to happen. And the reason is Sliwa, everyone's focused on Cuomo getting out Adams, Cuomo, Curtis Sliwa is the Republican candidate for mayor, got 325,000 votes in 2021. A generic Republican, even in a city as Democratic as New York, is going to get several hundred thousand votes from Republicans who are voters in New York City. And so right there I think you have Mamdani's election that the only real way for Mamdani to lose would be for Cuomo and Adams to drop out and for Sliwa to be the only remaining candidate. But they're not going to do that either.

[Mark Halperin]

Or for, as I said, for Adams and Sliwa to be pushed down and for the public debate to say if you want to stop a socialist, the only way to do it is Cuomo. Let's look at some of the reasons John said what he said. Here's the two way contest. This is head to head. If it were basically just Mondami and Cuomo. Now again it doesn't mean that the other two have to drop out, but if they're basically their share of the vote is limited, that's a dead heat. Mondame 41, Cuomo 42. But if you look at the cross tabs there at the undecideds, it seems that Cuomo would probably win that at least right now. Now, Mondame versus Mayor Adams again the incumbent Democratic Mayor Adams is down by 10. 10 is not insurmountable. But that shows, as John just said, Cuomo is stronger right now in an effective one on one race against Mondame than, than Cuomo is or than Adams is now. David, talk about this issue. We all know that cost of living has been the emphasis of the Madame campaign. What does your poll show about voters perceptions of the four candidates on that question of who who is the most focused on the question of cost of living for people in New York City?

[Ben Ferguson]

It wasn't even close. And this is really stands out for a lot of different ways they'll describe because Mandani I know when again it was a select all that apply and 51% of people selected him as yes, you know, someone who is focused on, focused on cost of living. You know and if I'm, if I'm on Madani's team, his, his political team right now one thing I'm looking at is where was I not performing well? Am I hitting a high water mark and where can I continue to improve? And one of the demographics said especially in the head to head just directly between Cuomo and Mondame. One of the demographics that actually supported Cuomo more so was people making $50,000 or less and people making 100,000 or less is about even. And so there's a lot of opportunity with Mondavi's message to continue to make up even more ground with that group of people later on. There's a question that kind of compare a socialist viewpoint with a capitalist viewpoint and Those people making 50% are making $50,000 or less actually sympathize more with the socialism viewpoint. Yet they are much more likely to say they were going to vote for Cuomo. So I think that's a demographic group with this message here that he's still possibly going to make up some ground with.

[Mark Halperin]

Right. So that's of course the main dynamic in the races, is he going to do better or worse than he is doing now? Is he going to go rise up or fall back? David, you included Donald Trump on this question too and said again, apply to all. Check all that. Apply Donald Trump for New York voters. Is he focused on cost of living issues? He does the second best in the poll after Mondavi. Better than Cuomo, better than Adams. What do you make of that? And then John, same question.

[Ben Ferguson]

I mean this really stood out to me. And again, he has a history. It stood out to me because Adams didn't perform better on this than Trump or even than Cuomo. But I think that Trump has a national brand. I think that's really what kind of allowed for more people who would typically be undecided on whether someone was doing a good job or not to actually select him. But there are a number of independents and as well as that, Republicans that were really driving that score up.

[Mark Halperin]

John, what do you make of this cost of living question?

[John Podhoretz]

So I think the answer is literally correct. If the question is who is most focused on cost of living issues. Mamdani is the candidate who was most focused on cost of living issues. That was the source of almost everything that he said in the campaign that he wanted to advance. Right. A lot of anti Mamdani talk about his extreme views on all sorts of things, but he wanted people to look at him and say his focus is cost of living. And I'm not surprised. This is a weird city. It's a very expensive city to live in. So if the voters under 50,000, then we're going to were supported, more supportive of Cuomo, Cuomo than Mamdani, even though he was talking about cost of living. You know, a person who makes $100,000 a year in New York City is very worried about the cost of living. I know that sounds grotesque probably to a lot of people who don't live here, but you have no idea how expensive it is to live in New York. I mean, it's just insanely expensive.

[Mark Halperin]

The city of the $8 muffin and.

[John Podhoretz]

And, and the, and the 300 square foot apartment that rents for $3,000 a month. I mean, right. It is not a joke to say that the upper middle class in New York is really concerned about cost of living. And they look at Mamdani and say maybe he can figure out some way to give me some free stuff so I can stay here and not have to move if I'm moving on with my life. I, I don't know because I think he has so many negatives that, that, that should be affecting him. But if you're going to focus on that to the exclusion of all else, then yeah, Mom, Donnie should get your. He's the most focused one. I don't know that that's an electoral benefit necessarily because what can a mayor do about cost of living? Like he says, there are all these things he wants to do and a lot of that is nonsense because he can't affect it. But, but that he's focused on it is true.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. This next question. Go ahead, David. There you go.

[Ben Ferguson]

What's interesting about what's driving those numbers is it's, it's largely white individuals making over a hundred thousand, but less than 500,000 that are replying that he's the one focused on cost of living. I don't know what to make of that, but that was one of the interesting things that stood out about the insights and to my point earlier are in the crosstabs. If he continues to focus on cost of living and if that message resonates with people under 100,000, then he could make some more ground. I still think one more has a lot more opportunity in this electorate to make ground, which we can talk about in a minute. But there are pockets of opportunities for him and that's one of them.

[Mark Halperin]

Look, opportunity for, for which one? From Adani or Cuomo?

[Ben Ferguson]

So the 100,000 unless is an opportunity for him to continue to make ground because they were not the ones answering that question to his actually white college educated people making over a hundred thousand. His message resonates with that group. Will it mess, will it continue to resonate and get out more with that 100,000 or less, will they believe him? I can tell you right now, Hispanics really believe it. And so you know they're, if, if Cuomo gets, or Adams gets Hispanics to turn out record numbers, get some register, turn them out, you know they're going to vote 2 to 1 for Cuomo or for Adams.

[Mark Halperin]

The only, the only way Mondami is going to lose. I'll say again, he needs to be go. They need to force him to go down and one other candidate needs to go up. That's the only way. If these other candidates stay where they are and Mandami goes up and as David, as the data shows, he's got room to grow up. Now here's a question I think speaks to his chances of going down and to the national issues at play here, which is the voters were asked who do you think check everybody for whom this applies to who's extreme or too ideological. Who's too extreme or ideological? Mondami, 44%. The next highest is Sliwa, 19%. The guy who's the next likely mayor of New York City most likely is seen by nearly half the voters as too extreme or ideological. John, what do you make of that?

[John Podhoretz]

I think that he has a ceiling because they're right, he is extreme and ideological. And just not enough of them think that. 44% think he's too extremely ideological. You would think, oh my God, well, he can't possibly win. But go down in your cross tabs. Right. Then you ask people, is it a problem that he's a socialist? They don't seem to think That's a problem.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, 44% of people.

[John Podhoretz]

44% in the poll. I'm jumping down. Right.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[John Podhoretz]

Strongly oppose electing a socialist mayor. So that's it. Too extreme and ideological. 44% strongly opposed electing the socialist mayor. 44%. That's Mamdani. Right. One's a kind of generic question. He's the socialist mayor candidate, but only 46% support. So there more people support electing a socialist mayor than oppose it. If that number isn't knocked down, I don't see how he loses.

[Mark Halperin]

I agree with.

[John Podhoretz]

Right. Because there are going to be state candidates in the race.

[Ben Ferguson]

Yeah, I mostly agree with that. One thing that's going to be unique about this race, I believe, is that it's going to have a turnout. The dynamics are different than we seen, at least in the last 25 years, I would say. And the turnout is going to be a lot higher. So you know when anytime you do polls, you're trying to predict, well, who's likely to vote in this election and if the turnout is in record numbers and that ceiling may end up hurting him more than expected.

[Mark Halperin]

Exactly.

[Ben Ferguson]

Seems to ideological. And if you can just get the people to turn out who traditionally wouldn't because they want to vote against the socialist or, you know, their vote never really mattered until now. Republicans are example of that. Which is why SLUA is a problem on the ticket for Cuomo Adams the But if. If you're able to get certain pockets of people to vote in record numbers, then you got a chance to win. And like you said, John, it makes sense now looking at these numbers why Cuomo ran. Also if you look at the undecideds are the people who defected effectively in that Cuomo Mandami ballot are from the Independent. So the ones who voted for said they're going for Cuomo but would not vote for Adams. Those are 65 and older, largely female Democrats. And I think Adams has an issue with some of his moves and alliances with Trump. Maybe some of the base has abandoned him, and I don't know if he can come back from that.

[Mark Halperin]

The irony for me in the electorate is Mondami won the Democratic nomination because the electorate that turned out turned out to be more pro Mandami than the pollsters thought. If he loses the general, it's what's going to be what David, you just said, which is the electorate swells with Hispanic voters and other voters who didn't, didn't necessarily vote in the primary, but vote now here in the general. Now, here's another question I think has huge national implications. You ask the voters, who will shake up the system. Tell us everybody who's on the ballot and Trump, who will shake up the system? Donald Trump, 38% of New York voters said we shake up the system. I'm surprised it's that low because it was not. Will he shake it up in a good way? The only 38, more than half of the voters, 52%, said madame would shake up the system. The next highest is sliwa at 20. Cuomo 16%. And we all know that voters want people in this day and age who will shake up the system. We all know that that's key to Donald Trump's success. So, John, can Cuomo convince people as a, as a brand name politician, as a career politician, can he convince people he wants to shake up the system, or that's just not in the cards?

[John Podhoretz]

No, I think it's actually this is where the rubber meets the road with him, or where either way, he slams into a brick wall. Because if his strength is that he's a comp, he has demonstrated competence within the system, then he's not someone who shakes up the system. He's the guy who can make the system work. Right. The shaking up the system is the system doesn't work so that you were able to somehow build the Second Avenue subway. I don't care. I don't care that you can build a Second Avenue subway unless you live on Second Avenue. No, no, no. I, I'm saying I live in 250 square feet and I'm paying $2,750 a month. That's what I care about. And everything. I don't understand how that's going to get fixed. So Cuomo can't come in and say, I'm going to shake things up like that's, that hurts his message with the people who would want to vote for him. That's where he is in a terrible bind.

[Mark Halperin]

Right. David, here's the question that's kind of the mirror image of the one we just talked about that I think is most revealing of Cuomo's problem because again, I think it speaks not just the mood of New York, but the mood of the country. And so the question is, which of the following attributes do you associate with the following candidates? And the attribute was, represents the interests of the elite or oligarchs. Represents the interests of elite or oligarchs. I can't imagine any candidate would want the answer to that to imply to them. Right. No one wants to, particularly in the current moment. Right. Andrew Cuomo, 40%. 40% Mondami 16%. I think if that number, if he can't move that number, he can't win. Right. 40% say he represents elites and oligarchs.

[Ben Ferguson]

I don't think he can move that number too much, at least with what we're projecting the electorate to be. And that's why I keep coming back to the point he's going to have to expand electorate with record turnout of people that do not, you know, well, 40 whatever percent said they're okay with the socialist mayor. Well, that's 40 something percent of this likely electorate. You got to expand past that electorate and hope that you get the ones who are scared of the idea of New York becoming the next San Francisco, for example, and get out and vote. Cuomo's too well known. He's got too much baggage. It's going to be really difficult and he can't put on that show, in my opinion. He can't go out there and really convince people. Because it's not who he is. Yeah, because it's who he is. He's saying what he believes and that's going to be tough to get people to move off of, especially with it like. David.

[John Podhoretz]

David, can I, can I ask you, because I think that's a very interesting thing that you've just said, which is that the universe of people that you polled here, if this is the universe of people that actually votes, then Mamdani wins. If, however, the, the, the electorate blows out this model through extremely high turnout among certain groups, then other that. Right. Then other things might happen. It just still strikes me that even if you're right about that, unless Sliwa or Cuomo drops or Adams, I meant Adams, because by the way, this is the other thing and I think I'm pretty sure about this There will be a Republican candidate on this ballot. The Republican Party has to have a candidate on the ballot for all kinds of legal, juridical reasons having to do with being on the ballot in the next election.

[Mark Halperin]

But the question is, does Cuomo or rich people who want to stop Mondami spend and message in a way that drives Sliwa down to a record low number for a Republican nominee in a mayoral race? Right.

[John Podhoretz]

So against de Blasio, right. Who I think got 74 and 77% of the vote respectively, in 2013 and 2017, the Republicans still got 20 to 22 to 23% of the vote.

[Mark Halperin]

They're gonna have to. Right, they're gonna have to drive him. They're gonna have to drive him lower because they're gonna have to convince people A, that he's a bad guy by running negative against him. And B, a vote for Sliwa is a vote for a socialist. So if you're a Republican, they're gonna say don't waste your vote on the Republican, cuz then you're voting for a socialist mayor.

[John Podhoretz]

I'm just asking you based on your lifetime experience following this granularly, a person on the Republican line, even in a city like New York, which has a 6 or 7 to 1 registration advantage for Republicans, is going to get 200 to 300,000 votes. Now if the electorate's 3 million people, that won't matter that much. Right. The electorate is theoretically as large as four and a half million. Right. The turnout has been like 20, 25% in the last four elections. But just having a Republican on the line means there's going to be 300,000 votes that are cast for the Republican. And I just think that's whatever the margin is that Vamdani will need. It's right there, David.

[Ben Ferguson]

It likely is. And if I'm sitting in, like we said earlier, it's a little bit more obvious now why Cuomo decided to run as an independent. But if I'm, you know, what we know is going to happen is there's going to be a massive airway war. And that's what the consultants like to do. And they're going to hope that through that they can scare the Republican voters enough to make them not turn out for as little at the numbers that they normally would have. So some attrition there coming over to the independent, your Cuomo and then they're going to hope they're going to, hey, I'm sure the consultants room, hey, we didn't have enough time. We didn't know this was going to happen so quick with Mondavi. With a little bit of time we can kind of, he's at his high water mark. We're going to beat him down and he's going to suffer some attrition too. That's not going to be enough though. And you're going to need a record turnout like we talked about. And what I would through my history being in these rooms and working with consultants as the pollster, they don't like to do the hard work. They don't want to get people Hispanic speaking people on the ground, knocking on doors, talking to them like building relationships. They're not going to go into the Hindu communities where they, you know, there's 200 plus thousand Hindus that if you turn them out to vote, they're going to vote for quote. But they're not going to get into these communities and really start to do the hard work.

[Mark Halperin]

And, and if they, and if they don't do it, Mandami will win is what you're saying. Lastly, for both of you, if you were presenting this data, New York's obviously its own beast. But if you're presenting this data to a Republican candidate in Michigan or to the Republican senatorial campaign meeting or the Democrats, what are the national lessons, David, that you take from this?

[Ben Ferguson]

Well, that is a good question. I would say that the big thing I would consider about this because especially if you're running for a statewide office, if you're running for a statewide office, the more votes you can get out of the cities or the, you know, or the less the, yes. The more votes you can get out of the cities, the better. Right. And the cities do have this type of psychologist type of personality. They're much more likely to engage with this socialist but, you know, populist type of message. And I'd say, you know, learn some from how he campaigned in the cities and see what you can do from the standpoint of your candidate and your message and their. Because that's an area that people avoid. Republican candidates avoid like crazy. They don't spend any money there. But there is a message people are willing to listen to and change their behavior on.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, John, my takeaway. And again, we sort of touched on this. Go ahead, go ahead.

[John Podhoretz]

I was just going to say that the, the most striking detail to me, as I told you in the poll in the, in the cross tabs is that among the people that David polled, 73% of them are childless. So that's an astonishing number. I don't know that I'VE ever seen such a number in a poll ever. And I don't think that that is reflective of the rest of the country. And I think what you're seeing is a political portrait of this democratic, increasingly childless world that is therefore disconnected from a lot of the political issues that most people outside of places like New York are connected to, like how are the schools? What are the property taxes that I have to pay to get X, Y or Z out of the schools? Crime, by the way, much more an issue for families that even if you live in an unsafe place than for the childless. And I'm looking at this, and I'm saying if I am a Republican outside the outside New York City, I am leaning into family. I am leaning into what it's like for two earner couples and what it's like at schools and what it's like to the cost of living issues that affect families. Because this world of childlessness is a world that is much more receptive to things like socialism than the world of people who are, like, trying to get ahead and make more money and, you know, like, rise on the socioeconomic ladder 100%.

[Mark Halperin]

And that's my national lesson from this poll. Above all else, which is this electorate is, is represents some of the changes and trends that are taking place. And that's the explanation of why a socialist may end up being a mayor of this city. David Burrell, thank you for the poll.

[Ben Ferguson]

Quickly, just one more point to that is I think the biggest lessons for the political strategist on the Republican side and the shoes, you're saying will probably come more when they watch what happens and watch how the tactics that Cuomo, Adams, whoever uses works and how it changes the electorates gets people turned out at different rates potentially in this area. With the, you know, the obvious caveat of what you all just said, that this is not representative of a lot of the other electorate. It's a very unique scenario.

[Mark Halperin]

Yep. All right, the full poll, you can see it in my substack. You can see it on my Twitter feed and probably David's website, too, I guess. But check my Twitter feed if you want to read the whole poll. There's great stuff in here. David, thank you for the poll and for being here. And John, thank you as always, for representing all of New York City, or at least that's me.

[John Podhoretz]

That's me.

[Mark Halperin]

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[Mark Halperin]

All right, welcome back. Next up, we're going to talk about politics, including the Democratic Party. I have been struck this week of all the signs of validation of the view I've had for a while that the Democratic Party's brand and positioning vis a vis Donald Trump and the Republicans is actually worse than a lot of people think. And most people don't think it's too great. More polling showing that the approval rating for the party is down. That's at historic lows in some surveys because not only are Republicans unhappy with the Democrats, but a lot of Democrats are too outspoken. Public statements by Kamala Harris and Hunter Biden have left many people scratching their heads. And of course, there's still the question of what the Democrats are going to do between now and the midterms and then beyond to confront Donald Trump and all of his political skills. So Joining me now, Mr. Ben Ferguson, one of America's best talkers. Ben, welcome in. Thank you for joining.

[Steve Bannon]

Good to be with you, man. Thanks for having me.

[Mark Halperin]

Tell people where they can find your content after this ends. And they say I need me more. Ben.

[Steve Bannon]

Yeah, you can. I do a couple different podcasts. I co host a show called Verdict with Ted Cruz with Cinder Ted Cruz, three days a week. So you can find us there. If you want to know what's going on in Washington, I do a new morning show called the 47 Morning Update. It's the three biggest stories coming out of the White House every day. It's about 10 to 12 minutes long. And then I do my more longer form show called the Ben Ferguson Podcast. And you can grab that wherever you get your podcasts as well. So it depends if you want more info or type. You got a short commute. Grab whatever you want and join me there.

[Mark Halperin]

How long you been doing that 47 thing?

[Steve Bannon]

So we started on Inauguration Day, January 20, and I came up with this idea. I was like, look, I know a lot of people at the White House. I think I can tell people what's going to happen in advance before it's happening. The White House has been awesome and they give a lot of information that we get to put in there so you know where the ball is moving. And it's more just kind of like, here's where we are, this is what's going to happen, and here's what you need to know. And we move on. Because I think there's a lot of people that love knowing what's happening, but they don't want to spend an hour, 45 minutes. So we really keep it tight, 10 to 12 minutes long. And you get the top headlines of what's going to happen out of, out of the White House.

[Ben Ferguson]

And.

[Steve Bannon]

And people have enjoyed it. Thank goodness. It's actually, it's really blown up, which is been fun.

[Mark Halperin]

How is it you don't have laryngitis?

[Steve Bannon]

I know, right? Exactly. Lots of. Lots of coffee, my friend. Lots of coffee.

[Mark Halperin]

Lots of coffee. All right. Maybe a lozenge every so often. All right, so let's talk about my. Let's Talk about my thesis that the Democratic Party is in more trouble than is commonly thought. If you go back to the last 10 years, which is when Donald Trump has. Has been ascended and the dominant figure in our politics, and you said, what are the five moments that the Democrats cast their own fate in a negative way? Obviously, in the top five, despite what Hunter Biden would say, was his dad seeking reelection? I would say, yeah. And the choice of the party elites to let Kamala Harris have the nomination, I'd say those would be two of the top five. What would you put on the list for the other three of moments where the Democrats made a critical choice that have left them where they are today, kind of struggling?

[Steve Bannon]

Yeah. I think there's two other issues. Number one, I think, is immigration. They didn't care what the data said. They didn't care what the American people were saying. They were obviously lost in that. While they were having wide open borders and sending people down there with forklifts to lift up razor wire to let more people come in illegally, they completely missed that. Or they just didn't care what the American people said. And they said, we can just dictate and they're going to deal with it because this is our policy. We want to fundamentally change the country. I think that one was huge. I also think there's another moment that was happening, and that is the civil war within the Democratic Party of who's leading it. When you had the radicals, the AOCs, the alarm, Omar's coming up, and you saw this turn into like, hey, we're gonna run socialists and communists we're seeing in New York City. And not reining that in, saying, this is not where we want the Democratic Party to go, but embracing it. Because you wanted to bring in, I think, young voters or new voters, and they were like, we're willing to roll the dice and kind of just expand into the socialist, Marxist, communist world that is backfiring, I think, right now in a very big way. And so when you look at the Democratic Party right now, I think it's not just a civil war. I don't think the Democratic Party knows who they are. And so if you talk to someone that's probably 35 or younger, they believe that the Democratic Party is communist or socialist. They believe in AOCs, they believe in the. This candidate out in New York City. That's where they see the party, the traditional guard, if you're 35 or older than the Democratic Party on. Hold on. We can't win nationwide with this. This isn't working. For us. And so you created this AOC world, you embraced it and now what do you do? How do you get rid of it? How do you bring everybody back in line? I'm not sure you can get that back in the bottle. And that's the reason why I think you see, even when there are, quote, stumbles and opportunities for Democrats to move forward that they see and they try to play into them, it doesn't seem to matter because someone gets them off message so quick that they can't capitalize on it. And that's why I think they are in serious trouble right now.

[Mark Halperin]

Totally agree with all that. And here's what I'd add as my fifth and this is kind of a catch all, which is the lack of authenticity. People often describe that as, you know, can you go on a podcast and act like a normal person? But to me, if I think about big issues, Covid trans athletes in women and girls sports, no doubt Israel, okay, I can't tell you what the Democratic Party stands for. Now. The Republican Party contains multitudes. There's not a unified position. But I can tell you what Trump's position is. I can tell you what the dominant position is. And it's not just a matter of what are they saying. I genuinely don't know where the Democratic Party is on Covid and then of course on Biden's obliquity.

[Steve Bannon]

Yeah, well.

[Mark Halperin]

They on the vaccine, I just don't know. Masks.

[Steve Bannon]

And that is the problem. If I was a Democratic strategist right now and I was in a room with the Democratic Party, I would still be asking the question every 30 minutes probably, Mark, like, who is my master? Like, is it David Hogue that, you know, whatever that guy's name is at the, at the dnc or is it still the Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton faction of the party, the Nancy Pelosi? I, if you can you imagine being a Democratic strategist right now, sitting in that room trying to figure out what are we going to run on? What are the issues for us in the midterms coming up? No one can give you a straight answer. And that is when you know you're lost as a party. But you go back to what you just mentioned on COVID lockdowns. I mean, what we do know is the Democratic Party is against law and order. We know that they're against the police still. We know that they're against ICE agents. We know that they're in favor of open borders. All of that doesn't poll well right now then you're in favor of guys that are saying, we want to take away property, we want to move out rich people, and the rich are evil and want to fundamentally change New York City, I don't think that's going to pull well either. And, and so that's why I sit back and I'm like, disarray might be an understatement. I have never seen the Democratic Party this broken. And I'm not sure there's any one person that can put it back together. There used to always be a leader. Right. There was a Barack Obama or a Bill Clinton that could kind of bring them back together and solidify and say, hey, this is how we win. But there does seem to be a legitimate element of the Democratic movement that is like, burn it down if we don't get what we want. And if you're dealing with anarchists, which, by the way, you created, you created a lot of anarchists these days of rage and stand up to Donald Trump and the Summer of Love and no real rioting and looting all over the country of blm. Like, you're funding it, you've created it, and now they've kind of turned on your own party. I don't know if you can fix this anytime soon, because you and I, if we had to list the top five, five leaders in the Democratic Party, I couldn't give you a list that is, like, solid. It's a. It's a pure guess on the day and also on the issue, like, who's in charge? Democratic Party. I don't know. I don't know if it's Jeffries.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. The only thing I'd say in annotation, what you said is it is true that they're loud and outspoken people who, who criticize ICE and, and who criticize the police. I don't think that's the dominant position in the party. But what I see is paralysis on the point of responsible voices in the party who might occasionally, when pressed three times on a Sunday show, say, that's not the way I'd say it, rather than a denunciation and an effort to figure out how to get that out of the party. Republicans have that on their side as well. But they also have the biggest megaphone in the world by the most masterful user of the megaphone who can take conflicting positions. But eventually, when he calls student body right, the party does student body right for the most part, the Democrats don't have that. All right, I want to talk about this Hunter Biden thing.

[Steve Bannon]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

He did this, did this big interview. Did this big interview. We talked earlier in the show about how he took his machete and put it on some nunchucks and swung it around and threw it and hit lots of big names in the party. One of the things he said, I'm kind of surprised. Hasn't gotten more attention, which is he claimed that his father's debate performance was not based on a loss of mental acuity, but on the use of Ambien. Here's Hunter Biden. S6, please.

[Hunter Biden]

I know exactly what happened in that debate. He flew around the world. Basically, the mileage that he could have flown around the world three times.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Hunter Biden]

He's 81 years old. He's tired as shit. Give him Ambien to be able to sleep. He gets up on the stage and he looks like he's a deer.

[Mark Halperin]

I mean, it's kind of an incredible thing. That's. Originally, they said he was sick, he had a cold.

[Steve Bannon]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

Then they said he had an off night. Now here's his son saying they gave the President of the United States an Ambien. No evidence that we can find that that was ever part disclosed as part of any drug he ever took. I know. You ever taken an Ambien?

[Steve Bannon]

No, I have not.

[Mark Halperin]

Taken an ambient.

[Steve Bannon]

No, I have not. And I think the most shocking part here is, is somebody just popping or throwing a pill to the President. Like, hey, take this random Ambien that hasn't been prescribed to you. Because what we do know is this doctor, who, by the way, took the fifth last week when he was asked about. We ever asked to lie about the President's condition in all of his notes, in everything that he has put out in the public? There is nothing in there about prescriptions for Ambien. So do we have a president that is getting off a plane or not sleeping, and some random person has an Ambien says, hey, Mr. President, take this. Is that what was going around in this presidency? There's no doubt now this is going to be a bigger issue for Joe Biden and for the people around Joe Biden that covered up his cognitive decline. It's going to be a big issue with the auto pen. It's going to be a big issue with what did he sign that he didn't even know he was signing? Because if you're saying that on the most important night of his life to win a reelection, the dude was a deer in headlights coming from his son, who says he's popping an Ambien like this tells you that this White House was completely unhinged. And out of control and the president was not running it. That's what I pulled from that.

[Mark Halperin]

Now. Now maybe Hunter just made that up or he had bad information. Maybe his dad never took an ambient. We don't know. It doesn't ameliorate all the other issues, but it certainly raises smartest guy that Hunter.

[Steve Bannon]

But the Joe Biden's ever met don't ever so good source.

[Mark Halperin]

And you're on the air too much to have watched all three hours. But I can tell you he has moments of intelligence and he, he criticized some people in a way that other, other people thought was a credit to him. But. But I'll just say it's an incredible assertion to make about, about your dad, the President and the irony to me, you know, a year ago Biden got out and part of why he didn't want to give up the nomination, besides all the reasons he wanted to stay being president and, and his belief that Kamala Harris would lose is his, his, his, his historical record, his legacy. Right. If he's forced off the ticket. Right. And, and so for the last year, you would be hard pressed to point to anything he or Hunter or Jill have done that have enhanced his legacy. In fact, just the opposite. I think what Hunter said yesterday is just horrible for his legacy no matter what it is.

[Steve Bannon]

And I also thought in that interview you may have noticed this mark. But like there were certain moments where I actually completely and utterly believed Hunter Biden. And it was usually when he wasn't angry and dropping F bombs. Like when he was talking about like meth and crack and like, like, like crack cocaine and the differences and like how to make it. Like, by the way, he was an expert on that. I'll give him full credit. When he was talking about this, I.

[Mark Halperin]

Was ready, I was, I was ready to cast him in Breaking Bad sequel. I thought. I mean I thought he had the whole thing down.

[Steve Bannon]

If they would have come to me and said a cartel hired Hunter Biden for $2 million instead of burism or a Chinese firm that I would have like, totally, totally, like checks out. Like, I believe he knew what he was doing giving them advice on crack cocaine.

[Mark Halperin]

50 grand a month retainer would have been a bargain.

[Steve Bannon]

Yeah, I'm like, this guy's a pro. He's an expert. But when you notice he was like more calm and the deer in headlights, like, I actually believe him. I, I think he actually was probably telling the truth there. We know he was around his dad a lot at the end. The whole family had really insulated around them to protect their dad. Hunter was at a lot of events. He was at the White House a lot. He was traveling with his dad a lot when he wasn't selling artwork. And so I think there's probably a legitimate moment here where you're saying, I doubt he's making it up. He's probably like, yeah, they gave him an ambient, and he was like, totally couldn't come down from it. And they were just trying to hop him up real quick and get him some sleep and get him ready. And it didn't work out.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, crazy. All right, I could ask you 50 Maxwell questions. I mean, Epstein questions, but we don't have time for 50. So I'm going to ask you, too. If you got a Maxwell interview, if she didn't talk to Justice Department and she didn't talk to the Capitol Hill, but she talked to you, what are some questions you'd ask her?

[Steve Bannon]

Number one, why is it that no one besides her sitting in jail, and I'd shut up and let her talk? Because once you go to jail, the way that she's in jail, and you think, I did all this facilitation and I was involved in all this corruption, and I was involved in sex trafficking and underage girls, and I'm the only one sitting in jail, I bet you being there for a little while, you're probably like, okay, I want some of those people that partaked in what I was doing and facilitating to be in jail with me. So I would ask her, why are you the fall guy here? Why is there no one else that you were around and doing this with? Why are they not in here? And are you frustrated? Are you willing to take this? And this is your legacy. Your life is over.

[Mark Halperin]

You're.

[Steve Bannon]

It's ruined. And I would want to hear what she had to say after that. That's number one. Number two, I think the second biggest question I would ask her is like, hey, do you believe that the government lied about an Epstein list to try to connect Donald Trump saying he's in the list or in the black book or whatever? Was that all a lie for. For the cameras and politics? Was there a list and who's on that list? I would love to hear her answer that question as well.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, those are two good ones. Now, I forget. Are you friends with Steve Bannon?

[Steve Bannon]

Yeah, I know Steve.

[Mark Halperin]

Well. Okay, why is Steve not putting out his 15 hours of interviews with Epstein that he supposedly has? I've read that he said that it's going to be part of A doc that comes out next year. But in the spirit of transparency, shouldn't we all be urging our friend Steve to put that stuff out?

[Steve Bannon]

It's a great question and I will ask him because I will see him next week. We're going to be playing golf together next week, so I will ask him that question as we're playing. I look, if I had that and I could put out an amazing documentary and make it where it is well thought out and, and I can explain it all and I've got it and people are going to want to watch it. Yeah, I'd probably do it that way as well. I would rush it. I would put it out as quickly as I could and make it great quality. But I will ask him that question. I don't know, but if I had that, I'd put it into a tell all, incredible movie like moment. Bannon's pretty good at that stuff, I think give him a lot of credit for how much he understands the savvy of TV and politics and presentation. So. But yeah, it's a great question. I'm going to ask, like, what do you have? Like, I want to know.

[Mark Halperin]

Let me know.

[Steve Bannon]

I agree.

[Mark Halperin]

Tech. Tech, text me from the golf course. Here's the thing about Steve, as you said, he's a genius at about a bunch of stuff. He's got a great sense of production. And the promo, have you watched the promo that's got like two or three clips of Epstein answering his questions? Have you watched?

[Steve Bannon]

No, I have not seen that yet.

[Mark Halperin]

Go watch, go Google it. That's on YouTube. It's like a two minute promo and just Epstein's like 10 second answers are extremely compelling. 15 hours of it. And I get, I get the notion of making a buck or wanting to put it out in some quality way, but I think Steve should just put post it all today. It's like if you're out there, as Steve is saying, transparency, transparency, transparency. And you got 15 hours of this guy talking, put it out. And I don't want a three minute gap.

[Steve Bannon]

Well, and here's my thing. I, I do think that when I call for transparency or Bannon does, like that's on the government and the transparency from the FBI and anyone else that was investigating.

[Mark Halperin]

Oh, it's on Steve too.

[Steve Bannon]

Well, no, but my point is I'm not worried about Steve putting it out like, but that's, but my point is I'm not calling for transparency from Bannon like he's hiding something. I'm calling for whatever the government has, even if it's not that big to let us see it in a transparent way, with redactions taken out. As long as we're protecting the victims. I want to make that very clear. And look, if Steve Bannon's got all these interviews and he can. And he's got all this tape and he can put it together and let us see it, I love that as well. But my point is, Steve Bannon is a guy that is going to probably give us a lot more than what the government's saying they're going to give us. And that's where I think many Americans have a huge problem.

[Mark Halperin]

I'm with you. All right, Are you. Are you a Ted Lasso guy?

[Steve Bannon]

Oh, dude, I love that show, but I. I played tennis in college, so anything sports related, I'm obsessed with.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, here. Here's just. The fourth season is now shooting. Here's a little bit of motivation from Ted himself.

[J]

It's just a sign. All right, guys, listen to me. Belief doesn't just happen because you hang something up on a wall, all right? Comes from in here, you know, up here, down here. So be curious, not judgmental. I like that. Most of the time, change is a good thing. I think that's what it's all about. Embracing change, being brave, doing whatever you have to so that everyone in your.

[Mark Halperin]

Life.

[J]

Can move forward. Theirs tell you, man, if y' all play hard, play smart, play together, and just, you know, just do what y' all do, then we'll go out with a peace of mind knowing we did our best.

[Mark Halperin]

Right?

[J]

That we tried.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, Ben, for those who are not viewers of the show, explain why the return, the unexpected return of season four is such a seminal moment in our lives.

[Steve Bannon]

Look, I think this is just one of those shows where people said, it made me feel good. It made me feel like there was people that are wanting to do something great with their lives. I'm a sucker for anything sports. I mentioned I played in college. You have a dream to be a pro. One day I. I fell short of that. But the dream was all the way through college where I thought, this is what I'm going to do. And so when you look at this lasso, I also think there's just a cool thing about reality of people. Like, Ted Lasso is a guy that, you know, goes through this divorce early on. He wants to be there for his kid. He wants to do something great with his life again. He's trying to reinvent himself and inspire others at the same time. That's why I think the show worked. And I would say to Hollywood, whatever you do, please don't screw up great shows by putting politics in there or trying to make political statements. Like, let me hit pause on that. Let me root for a team. Let me root for individuals like, I'm on their team. And that's why Ted Lasso works. I think people generally want a break in their day. I do this for a living. You do it as well. I just want to watch and I want to root for somebody, and I think that's why this is going to be so good.

[Mark Halperin]

Couldn't agree more. Now, whenever Ben comes on my show, I think about kind of like a wall planner, like your day. So you got time to sleep, eat, exercise, spend time with your family, go to your house of worship. And then the remaining block of time, what fits in that block of time exactly? The number of hours Ben's broadcasting a day. So if you do, you do it right, you schedule it perfectly. You can listen to every program he does and get everything else done. Doesn't leave room. No margin of error. No margin of error. You can't listen to Ruthless, for instance. But those guys are doing fine. They don't need your. They don't need your help. Ben.

[Steve Bannon]

Good to see you, man. Thanks for having me.

[Mark Halperin]

Grateful to you for being on. Thanks for coming back and much appreciated. All right, that's it for next up for this episode. Grateful to you for being here. As always, we'd love for you to be part of being, taking your responsibilities as a nexter seriously. So please always, like, subscribe, share, listen, watch us on YouTube or of course, listen to us wherever you get your podcasts. And we will be here every Tuesday and Thursday. So we'll see you Thursday for another episode to let you know what's next up.