← Next Up with Mark Halperin
Next Up with Mark Halperin
The FULL 2026 Senate Map Breakdown - Which Seats GOP and Dems Will Pick Up, Plus the Battle For the Key Seventh Seat
00:57:40
In this special episode of “Next Up with Mark Halperin,” Mark uses his unparalleled sources to deliver a full-length reported monologue demonstrating that Democrats still have an extremely steep hill to climb to take back the Senate majority in November. Shattering the conventional wisdom, Mark breaks down in detail the nine races that will decide control of the chamber. He starts by analyzing the three seats currently held by Democrats they are most at risk of losing, explaining the political dynamics driving vulnerability and how Republicans are positioning themselves to capitalize. He then lays out the three most likely pickup opportunities for Democrats and what needs to go right to flip those seats. And then, he reports, even if Democrats go 6 for 6 in those contests, they still need to win one of the three Republican-held seats in Iowa, Alaska, and Texas to win the chamber. You have not heard the Senate map broken down like this anywhere else. Bank On Yourself: Discover th...
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- [00:00]
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Mark Halpern
Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter? Right?
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Jennifer
And the best part? They accept Discover.
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Mark Halpern
Except Discover in a little place like this?
- [00:39]
Jennifer
I don't think so.
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Mark Halpern
Jennifer.
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Jennifer
Oh yeah, huh? Discover's accepted where I like to shop. Come on baby, get with the times.
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Mark Halpern
Right?
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Jennifer
So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback, I think.
- [00:54]
Mark Halpern
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen everybody, welcome in. I'm Mark Halpern. Welcome to NextUp. Got a great episode for you today. I'm your host here as well as the editor in chief of the live interactive video platform 2way. My work appears there and here. And today I'm very grateful that you've joined. And special look at the US Senate in the control of the Senate in the midterms. No guests today, just yours truly. Trying to walk you through how to think about who's going to control the U.S. senate after the midterms. There's so much confusion, so much sloppiness, so much that's wrong about how people look at this. So I have done a ton of reporting about where the Senate stands and I'm going to present it to you today so you can know what's next up in thinking about and talking about whether the Republicans will keep their Senate majority or not after November's elections. A deep dive, the deepest dive you've heard on the U.S. senate and control in the midterms. That's next up. Are you being lied to? They tell you to defer paying your taxes by saving in a 401k or an IRA because you'll retire in a lower tax bracket. But if that were really true, why are so many retirees in the highest tax bracket of their whole lives? It's time to get the truth and discover a better way to grow and protect your your money. Bank on yourself is the proven retirement plan alternative that banks and Wall street desperately hope that you never hear about it gives you guaranteed and predictable growth that doesn't go backward when the market drops. It can provide tax free retirement income under current tax law, putting you in control of your future tax rate. You also have control of your money. Access it when you need to with no government penalties or any restrictions and your money keeps growing even when you use it. You can get a free report that reveals how you can bank on yourself and enjoy tax free retirement income, guaranteed growth and control of your money. Just go to bankonyourself.com mark and get your free report. That's bankonyourself.com mark. Go right now to bankonyourself.com Mark all right, next up, let me talk you through how I see the battle for control of the Senate. It's not a sure thing either way. In the last couple weeks, many people, including myself have said Democrats chances of taking the majority have gone from negligible to significant. And I still believe that's the case. I do believe that Democrats had virtually no chance to win Senate majority before, even in an off a midterm election that should favor the Democrats. And now I think they have a chance. But I believe most analysts and the betting markets are overstating the Democrats chances. And I'll tell you why. This is the most basic thing. When somebody says to you I think Democrats are going to take the majority or I think Democrats have a good chance to take the majority. Ask them this question, which seats are they going to win? Right? It's not an abstract question. Currently in the Senate, Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority. Right after the election, Democrats will need 51 seats. A 5050 tie doesn't help them because the Republicans control the White House. So again, I don't have my abacus out, but I can say this. Democrats have to net net four Senate seats to get the majority. That means if they lose a single Republican, a currently Democratic held seat to the Republicans, they would need to win not four but five. And so you have to look at the current map and say how are Democrats going to do this? They're gonna have to net four seats to go to a 51, 49 majority. So what I've done for you today is I've talked to Republican and Democratic strategists across the country in the individual states, people who are working on these Senate races or have worked on Senate races. And I've gone through and broken down where will Democrats get these seats. And if you do the actual breakdown, what you'll find is it's possible that Democrats will take the majority, but the odds are not anything like what most analysts say, what the betting markets say. So Again, right now, 53, 47 Democrats must net four. And there are, there are a handful of races, nine races that are in play. Okay. Three are races that are currently held by Democrats so they're Republican pickup opportunities. And six are ones that are held by Republicans that are Democratic pickup opportunities. Okay, now we're going to run through all the individual races and I'm going to talk to you about them. But what I'll tell you is that if you go race by race, it's a bit of a challenge. Democrats almost have to run the table. Not quite, but almost have to run the table to do that. What are the competitive races? The Republican race, the Republicans held? Democratic held seats where Republicans have a chance to win even in a year that should be good for Democrats. You find those in New Hampshire, Michigan and Georgia. So those are three Republican opportunities to pick up seats. And then the Democrats opportunities, their best opportunities, all everyone would agree are Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. And then there are three more where people talk about the prospect of Democrats losing or winning, rather Iowa, Texas and Alaska. So the basic math here, folks, is nine competitive seats. And I'm, and I'm here to tell you if Republicans win one, one of the seats that Democrats currently hold that are in play, they're almost certain to take the majority. And their chances in those three, again, Michigan and New Hampshire and Georgia, their chances in all three are pretty good. In fact, I would say their chances in all three, in some ways we'll walk through each individual one. Their chances there are better than the Democrats chances of winning some of these Republican seats. Okay, so we're going to walk through them all individually, but you got to keep your eye on the math. Now, the House is a whole different beast. House races tend to be swept up into a national tide. And you look at the mid the special election results, you look at the polling, you look at some of the other variables in these individual races and what seats have come into play. Democrats today will almost certainly take control of the House and I think they could win up to 25 or 30 seats net, which would be a lot under the circumstances. Now we got to wait to see what happens with all this gerrymandering. We're waiting for a Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights act that could scramble all this. But we're not talking about the House today, except to say that Democrats taking the House with a big wave will certainly make it more likely they'll take the Senate. But Senate races make their own wind and weather. They're not as subject to the national tides. A lot of what determines it is they're an incumbent. Who raises the most money, what kind of campaigns they run, how good are the candidates themselves. That means a lot more in Senate races than it does in House races. So we're not talking about the House today, except to say don't think that what happens in the House automatically happens in the Senate. Okay? Now what we are talking about is the unforgivingness of the math. And here's, I think after doing a lot of reporting on this and thinking it through, here's, I think the easiest way to think of it. Look at the map here again. These are your nine races that are in play. Democrats, based on my reporting, have to win six of these or their chances of the majority are negligible. They have to win all the seats they're defending. Maine is, New Hampshire is an open seat. Democrat we'll talk about these individual races and drill down in a moment. New Hampshire's an open seat. The Democrats retiring and Republicans have a strong candidate. Michigan is an open seat. Democrats retiring, Republicans have a strong candidate. Georgia is an incumbent Democrat. John Ossoff, we've talked about him here before. He's running a great race. But it's still Georgia. It's still a state that's more red than purple or blue. So to win the majority to net four seats, Democrats are going to have to win all three of the ones they're defending. Okay? And I'm telling you that's not an easy task. Then the three most likely Democratic pickups. And all my sources agree, these are the three most likely. Okay? One is Maine. Susan Collins is a Republican incumbent. She's the only New England senator, Republican. She's the rare senator who represents the state that her party's presidential candidate didn't win. But she's a survivor. She will not be easy to beat. We'll talk more about that. North Carolina, an open race, a Republican held seat. Democrats have a very strong candidate there. That may be their best pickup opportunity. But it's not, it's not a slam dunk. We'll talk about that. And then, and then finally Ohio. Republicans have an incumbent, but he was an appointed incumbent. He didn't win the seat. Democrats have a strong candidate. Okay. None of those are shoe ins for the Democrats, truly, but those are their best bet. So if you take those six again, three Republican held seats, three Democratic held seats. I'm telling you, mathematically, just as a matter of the politics of it, Democrats have to go 6 for 6. They have to win every one of those. If Republicans win a single one of those six, they're almost certain to keep the majority. Not 100% certain, but almost certain. So again, just think about, you know, the rules of a game. One side needs to win six in a row and the other side just needs to pick off one. And even if Democrats go 6 for 6 in those races, they still need to one win one more, most likely from Texas, Iowa or Alaska. None of those are sure things for the Republican, for the Democrats at all. First of all, they're all red states. Second of all, there's questions about the Democratic candidates in all three races. Republicans in at least two of the three have strong candidates. So that overview should give you an idea of just how challenging this is going to be for the Democrats to take the majority. They got to go 6 for 6 in the core 6, and then they got to go, in addition to that, at least one for three in the other three. Mathematically, that's challenging. And if you look, as we will in a moment, you drill down on the individual races. It's, it's tough. I'll say again, Democrats are defending three. If you told me today they lost one, two or all three of them, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. Okay, they're defending three and then they got a win four of six of seven that they're challenging for. No, sorry. Four of six that they're challenging for. To win it. We'll see. We'll see. So in a moment, I'm going to go state by state with you and I'm going to give you the opportunity to understand, I think better than you'll hear anywhere else, why it is that even my Democratic sources say this is a challenge. This is going to be a challenge to take the majority. It's, it's not the long shot. It was a few weeks ago for reasons I'll walk through. But it's not automatic by any means. And really, after drilling down on this and looking at the numbers, anybody who tells you the Democrats are the favorite to take the Senate, I think are wrong. Now there are other races, people talking about Montana, Nebraska. I'm not saying if it's a huge Democratic year, these races can't go Democratic. They could. Unlikely, but they could. What I'm saying to you is you don't need to think about those. Because if those races, places like Nebraska and Montana, if those are going Democratic, they'll have the majority easily. But we're just talking about the tipping point. How do they get to 51? And that's why I'm focused on the nine I'm focused on. So in a moment, we'll walk through all nine races together. I'll explain to you where I see things based on my reporting with sources in both parties. And that will give you the micro of the macro I just went through, of just how challenging it's going to be. Even in a year where people have doubts about Donald Trump, where Democrats are fired up, where Democrats have won a lot of special elections, Democrats raising a lot of money in a lot of cases. Even with all that, you will have a better sense, I think, than you'll get anywhere else of what it will take and how challenging it will be. The race by race, state by state breakdown is next up. Going online without ExpressVPN is like printing your Social Security number right on your business card. You're just putting way too much personal information out there for bad actors to exploit using a vpn. It's essential when connecting to unencrypted networks in cafes, hotels, airports or anywhere where your online data can be exposed to hackers who target passwords, bank logins, credit card details and more. ExpressVPN creates a secure, encrypted tunnel between your device and the Internet with reliable coverage across all your devices. That includes phones, laptops, tablets and more. US Plans also include their Identity Defender. 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Jennifer
Thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs? Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the times.
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Mark Halpern
With the times. You're playing the loot.
- [16:01]
Jennifer
Yeah. And it sounds pretty good, right?
- [16:03]
Mark Halpern
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report. All right, next up, let's break down the individual Senate races and talk about why Democrats chances of getting the majority are not as great as people are saying these days. And let's start with the the three seats currently held by Democrats where Republicans have a chance to win. And let's start with New Hampshire. This is an open seat, retiring incumbent. And Democrats have a chosen consensus candidate, a proven vote getter, Congressman Chris Pappas. He represents one of the state's two congressional districts. He's known throughout the state. It's a small state. And he's right in line with the sort of a consensus. The Democratic Party Democrats have done well in Senate races in the state for a while. I think he's probably the favorite, but the Republican primaries in September, and John Sununu is one of the two candidates along with Scott Brown. Both have national reputations. Both have been senators. Brown from Massachusetts. Sununu is a very strong candidate and his brother was a popular governor. His father was a popular governor. He was a House member and a congressman. He's a good fundraiser and we'll see how he does. Some people in my reporting say that he's the favorite to win not just the primary in September, but the general election. Other people say it's going to be a Democratic year. New Hampshire's voted for Democratic senators mostly of late, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if John Sununu won this race. Sununu's don't lose often in New Hampshire. And John Sununu is a really smart, crafty guy and again, a good fundraiser. So that's one. Again, these three Democrats must win all three, almost certainly to win the majority. And I'd say Sununu has a pretty good chance in that race. Okay, then we go to Michigan. Michigan's another race that's an open seat, retiring incumbent. And Republicans have once again a guy who's a very good candidate. Mike Rogers, former congressman, ran two years ago and narrowly lost to win the Senate race there. He's back at it basically uncontested in an August primary And he's not the best fundraiser, but he's okay and has a lot of support from the party. Like Sununu, he has the support of President Trump and the MAGA operation. And the best argument for why Democrats may lose the seat is they've got a contested three way primary and none of these candidates are absolute top tier Senate candidates. And one or two of them may be weak candidates in the general election. In Michigan, Haley Stevens is a congresswoman. She's the kind of the establishment favorite favorite. Mallory McMurrow has been in the public eye. She's a state legislator, state senator, but she's been kind of a darling of social media and of the Ms. Now crowd. And then Abdul, I said is a doctor, who's the Bernie Sanders candidate in this race? Very, very progressive guy. Again, if you were just taking out the fundraising, if you were taken out even the state and just said experience, candidate quality. Mike Rogers is a stronger, more experienced candidate than the three Democrats. Now all three Democrats have the chance to sort of grow into the role once they win the nomination in August. But they all have spent a lot of their money. They all been beaten up by the other two. And it's hard running statewide. Michigan ain't easy and Mike Rogers has got the experience of having done it. Lastly, there's a governor's race in the state. It's going to be a three way contest with an independent, the former mayor of Detroit. And that kind of scrambles things. Hard to know how it will impact that happens in the Senate race. But this is another one where if you told me right now, I've seen the future and Mike Rogers wins, whoever the Democratic nominee is, I wouldn't be surprised. And if it is the Bernie candidate, if it is the super progressive candidate, Michigan has not elected someone as liberal as him to statewide office in forever. So let's see who the nominee is. Let's see how strong they are. But I would say both the Doctor and Mallory McMorrow, if they turned out to be weak Senate candidates, not good at handling opposition research, not good at defending their more progressive views, wouldn't be the least bit surprised. So that's another one where I think Democrats, my sources say Mike Rogers could win that race. And when I do my reporting, I talk to people in both parties and if all the Republicans say one thing, you know, if all the Republicans say Mike Rogers will win and all the Democrats say the Democrat will win, you know, I factored that in and ty would go probably to the incumbent party in most cases. That's not the case here. Democrats know that this is a vulnerability, that Mike Rogers is a good candidate and he could win it. It's similar to Dave McCormick who ran in Pennsylvania for Senate, lost and then came back two years later and won the seat. Big advantage. So that's the second of the Democratic held seats must win for the Democrats. And then the third is Georgia. Jon Ossoff. Now, some of my sources thought this was the most vulnerable of the three. I think it's the least vulnerable in part because there's an incumbent and in part because unlike in New Hampshire where Democrats have a strong candidate and Michigan where they might, the Republican trio running in the May primary, they're not great candidates so far. Maybe they can grow into it. But my general rule of thumb about Senate races where there's an incumbent is that beating an incumbent requires an A level challenger and the incumbent has to have a scandal or be complacent or not raise money. And Ossoff has none of those things. He's not complacent, he's working really hard, he's raising a lot of money and he's not had any scandals. So the three Republicans, two congressmen, Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, and then Derek Dooley was football coach of renown in the state. They're all fine, but none of them are a level candidates, at least not yet. Primaries in May. Maybe the winner will take the advantage of surviving the primary and get a bunch of attention and demonstrate their medal. But these are not strong candidates and they divide the, the party leadership is divided. You know, Governor Camp got Derek Dooley into the race to make sure that he thought he'd be the best general election candidate. He's not proven to be all that great so far. So once again I say, I think this is, some of my sources say Democrats, Republicans, best pickup opportunity. I think it'll be close. Ossoff's not going to win in a landslide in a red state. But I think this is tougher because the other two are open seats. But once again, I say if Ossoff loses his race because Collins or Carter or Dooley turn out to be a super strong candidate, good luck to, to the Democrats and taking the majority. They won't, they won't do it if they lose any of those three. So again, you start out saying Democrats must basically go 3 for 3 in New Hampshire, Michigan and Georgia. And they could, they could win all three. As I said, I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans won them, but I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats did So, so now you move to the next, the second three in the, in these, the six that are our main focus. All of these are currently Republican held seats and Democrats could win them all. But let's go through why none of them are gimmes. First of all, Maine, okay? In Maine, Susan Collins is the incumbent. Democrats have tried to beat her every six years. Maine has been increasingly become a tough state. New England's become a tough region for Republicans. But Susan Collins was given up for dead politically six years ago. The polls showed her behind. A lot of people wrote her off and she won. And so you have to remember that you've got an incumbent, even though it's a Republican incumbent in New England, and you've got someone who's tenacious, she does not want to lose. And she's, she's proven that her tenacity and her will to survive politically is as strong as anybody's. And she's not, she's not. I don't know that she'll run again after this, but she's not ambivalent. She wants to win again. And the challenge for Democrats above all else is they've got a primary. June 9 primary between two candidates, okay? And this shows the challenge the Democrats have because I said to everybody in my reporting who would be stronger as the general election candidate for the Democrats to do this difficult task of beating Susan Collins, and my sources in both parties were split. Janet Mills is the governor, Democratic governor. She's a statewide proven winner, but she's an establishment figure and she's going to have a tough time, some say if she is the nominee beating Susan Collins, because it's going to be one establishment figure who's been around for a while against another. Collins is the incumbent. Incumbents usually win. Mills is the favored candidate of Senator Schumer and the party establishment who, who like the thought of a governor running for Senate, that's safe, that's standard, that's establishment. The other candidate for the Democrats is Graham Platner. He's gotten a ton of attention. He's, he's a blue collar guy. He's a guy who veteran and works on the sea. It's just a phenomena based a lot of money online has had tons of controversy, okay, about his past and things he puts did on Reddit, things that have been offensive to many people. He had a tattoo that turned out to be a Nazi symbol that he had to get taken off and covered up. This guy should be dead politically. But we're in an era of the outsider. We're in the era where if you can say to your supporters online, they're trying to attack me, to take me out because I'm trying to make change, you can do well. He's been defiant. So this primary, the poll suggests Platner is going to win, but Mills is determined to raise money and spend it taking out Platner. That means between now and June, there's not going to be too much attacks on Susan Collins. And in fact, Collins has so much support from The Republican super PACs and outside groups, she'll have lots of defense, she'll have lots of money, and we're going to see a lot of tax between Mills and Platner. Here is the first Mills negative ad, major negative ad against Platner. Going after him for some of the things he said in the past about some pretty controversial issues. Here's the ad.
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Jennifer
Did you know Graham Platner wrote that
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Mark Halpern
women worried about rape need, to, quote,
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Graham Platner
not get so f ed up, they wind up having sex with someone they don't mean to?
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Mark Halpern
It's disgusting.
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Jennifer
Platner wrote, to avoid rape, women should,
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Graham Platner
quote, act like an adult for sake.
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Mark Halpern
Graham Platner, seriously, We blame the victim.
- [27:11]
Jeep Grand Cherokee Advertiser
That's a horrible thing to say.
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Jennifer
Disqualifying.
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Mark Halpern
I have not seen this. He's a bully. This guy gives off a vibe.
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Jennifer
Just, no way I could vote for you.
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Mark Halpern
No Graham Platner.
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Jennifer
The closer you look, the worse it gets. I'm Janet Mills, and I approve this message.
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Mark Halpern
Now, Platner's got a lot of money, too, just like Mills, and he's going to defend himself. Here is his response video to the ad that Mills is now running against him.
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Graham Platner
If I saw these ads, I'd have questions. These are words and statements I abhor from a time in my life when I was struggling deeply after returning from war. These words are not who I am. So, ME, I'm asking you not to judge me for the worst thing I said on the Internet on my worst day 14 years ago, but who I am today and the kind of senator I promised to be. I'm Graham Platner, and I approve this message, and I will not let you down.
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Mark Halpern
So, again, my sources don't really know who's going to win between Platner and Mills. There's going to be debates and there's going to be more ads, but neither of them is a sure thing against Collins. Mills is going to have the handicap of being another establishment figure who's been around a while. Platner is going to face more scrutiny and even Though a ton has come out about him already, Republican sources are confident that they'll unearth more stuff that hasn't been out there. And, you know, so far when he's dealt with controversy, some people have been a fan of how he's handled it, some haven't. But I make Collins the favorite here. People can say this is a natural pickup for the Democrats because she is in representing a state that was won by Kamala Harris. They can say she's an establishment figure, she's been around too long. But I think the matchup with either of the Democrats, particularly as they come out of a bruising primary in June, my sources by my reporting suggest Collins is going to win. And again, if Democrats can't beat Susan Collins, even if they defend all three of their seats that they're defending, they're not going to take the majority. So that's number one. Number two is probably the one I think is their best pickup opportunity. North Carolina, it's an open seat. Thom Tillis, the Republicans retiring and both parties cleared the field for their favored candidate. So the primaries passed and neither of them was seriously challenged. And so there's a long general election there and the Democrats have a very strong candidate on paper. Roy Cooper, former governor of the state, has won statewide before, done very well as a Democrat in a purple state, used to be a red state. The Republicans, I think my sources agree, nominated a really weak candidate and they chose to clear the field for him. Michael Whatley was Donald Trump's pick to be chairman of the rnc. He left that role to run for this seat. They cleared the field. Nobody else ran seriously against him. And he's not proven to be a super strong candidate. If you're a quasi incumbent, which Cooper is right, he's the known quantity as the longtime governor of the state. There's benefits to that. People know you, the people who like you, like you. But in this era of the outsider, of the anti establishment populist sensibility, being a quasi incumbent may not be great. Wally's just not proven to be a great candidate. Cooper's raising a lot of money. Wally is not.
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Jennifer
Not.
- [30:25]
Mark Halpern
Cooper is demonstrating a lot of political skill. Watley has not so far. And I've heard from some Republicans annoyance that in a state that they could hold, that this is probably their best pickup opportunity. If you look at my reporting, better than Maine, better than better than Georgia. And let's see, maybe Watley will get better. I don't like to write folks off. Maybe Watley will prove to be a super Strong candidate. But today Cooper's the favorite until Whatley proves that he can keep up with a guy who's won statewide. So this is a possible pickup for Democrats. Their best one. But again, as the numbers make clear, it's not sufficient. That's the two core ones, the third most likely Democratic pickup according to all my sources. Absolute consensus. Some believe Maine's a better pickup, some North Carolina, but they're 1 and 2 as the most likely Democratic pickups of two of the four they need to net the most likely after that, again, consensus is Ohio. And Ohio is a funny one to evaluate. Democratic candidate there is Sherrod Brown. He's, he's been a senator before. He lost his race, but he's a, he said he's a thoroughbred political athlete. It's a red state now. There aren't a lot of Democrats getting elected in Ohio statewide and he's running against a super weak candidate. John Husted is, was lieutenant governor. He's now he was the appointed senator that after JD Vance got elected vice president, the seat was open. The governor put him in. He's not a great candidate. He's not inspiring, not all that well known. Not a great fundraiser so far. So naturally Democrats for an open race with a strong candidate have a chance. But it's still a red state and we'll see how the governor's race impacts that. The Democrats are actually doing better in the governor's race than some thought they would. So that helps Brown, but I don't know about this one. I want to, I want to see more how Democrats frame the race. I want to see how the Republicans frame Brown. Brown again popular with the Democratic base but has a lot of liberal positions. And I got to see how the, the Republican quasi incumbent, he's an actual incumbent but never won before. I want to see how he does. At this point, I make the race a toss up based on my reporting, but it's a must win for the Democrats. All six of the races we've just discussed are must wins for Democrats. They cannot win the majority without sweeping the three where they're on defense. Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia. And the three where they're trying to take away seats from Republicans. North Carolina, I said, I said for New Hampshire. So once again the three were Democrats who playing defense. New Hampshire, Michigan and Georgia. And then the ones where Democrats are trying to take Republican seats, North Carolina, Maine and Ohio. Okay, so that's a frame there. They got to win all six and I, I've run through them, I hope has Made it clear they're, they're not, they're not the favorite to win in, in. They're not the absolute favorite to win in any of the six. Yeah, I'd say right now, based on my reporting, favored in North Carolina, favored in Michigan, depending on who the nominee is, maybe favored in Georgia because, because Ossoff's done a good job. But Maine, Ohio, New Hampshire, I don't know that my reporting suggests the Democrats are the favorite in any of them. Too soon to say toss up whatever you want to say about them. But that's, but that's a tall order where three edges, three toss ups, gotta win all six, gotta win all six if they want the majority. That alone should tell you why I believe a lot of analysts are overstating the Democrats chances of winning the majority. But remember the math. If they sweep all six of those, all six, they still have to win one more. And this is where my reporting got super interesting because there are basically three states that are candidates for that so called fourth seat, that, that essential fourth opportunity, run the table on the six and then win a, win one more. And there are three candidates for that, for that possibility. Texas, Alaska and Iowa. And I talked to so many smart people about this and what's funny is I probably had a third, a third, a third for what people said was the most likely. And these are very smart people, very knowledgeable, access to data, understand the history, understand the electoral politics unique to each individual state. And it's funny because I'd say to a source, if I said to a source, whether it's a Democrat or Republican, they'd say I think I was the most likely fourth. And I'd say, tell me why. They tell me why. And then I take that logic to other sources. And now no chance. My point is that, that a lot of sources need to be real specific about this. A lot of my sources look at the next three again, Alaska, Iowa and Texas, and it's not, they won't even rank them. They won't even say, well, this most likely, second most likely. A lot of my sources rule out one or two and some will have three for chances of Democrats winning. Republicans and Democrats. Right. Some of them feel very strongly that there's one. So, but they don't agree on which the one is. So I started out thinking Iowa was the one. I'm very skeptical the Democrats can win a Senate seat in Texas. Very skeptical. But I thought Iowa might, might be the answer. And we'll talk about Iowa in a minute. But as I talk to people about Iowa, people are skeptical. A lot of, you know, two thirds of my sources, basically skeptical that Iowa is the answer for the Democrats. So as you go through these races, you see why people are skeptical. There's reasons in all of them. Now, one of them has gotten incumbent in Alaska, an incumbent Republican. I was an open race. And again, it's always easier for the party who doesn't hold the seat now to win it if it's a, if it's a open race. And then Texas is the, is the hybrid about whether it's an open, open or not, because it'll depend on how, how the primary comes out. So let's talk about those three. And, and again, I'll say you got to find one. If you, if you're, if you're the kind of person who wants to go around and say, oh, Democrats are very likely to take the majority in the senator, Democrats have a great shot. You got to have an explanation. You got to say if you think Democrats are going to win the majority, they're going to win all six. They're going to hold, they're going to hold Michigan, they're going to hold New Hampshire, they're going to hold Georgia, they're going to win North Carolina, they're going to win Maine, they're going to win Ohio. And then you got to name one more. Again, you're not a serious person. You're not making a serious projection or, or an analytical statement about control of the Senate unless he can name the one more. Okay, and, and the one more is a challenge. So let's start with them. Let's start with Iowa. Iowa is an open race. Joni Ernst is retiring. Democrats have a primary in June. Republicans have a very strong candidate. Every source I talked to both parties, Ashley Hinson, congresswoman from Iowa's 2nd congressional district, she's a strong candidate. Now, she's not an incumbent. She's not one statewide run statewide, but she's a perfectly strong candidate. She's a good politician, good at raising money, popular in the state, unites the different wings of the Republican Party. So ain't nothing wrong with Ashley Hinson as a, as a candidate in the abstract. But Democrats, first of all, they've got a primary. And you never know with the primary, right. You never know who's going to win. Now, they've got two candidates in the Democratic Party, State Senator Zach Walls and State Representative Josh Turek. Walls is the favorite, but he's a state senator. He's not a member of Congress. He's not Run for federal office before. Not all that well known. It's a red state generally. It's been trending red. It used to be a purple state, trending red. And guys gotta wait till June to start running in the general, raising money for the general. But there's countervailing forces, first of all, Iowa farmers and people in ag and everybody in Iowa, almost everybody's connected to ag in one way or the other. The tariffs haven't been good. Gas prices, huge issue. Diesel prices, huge issues in Iowa. And the Republican Party has been in power for a long time. So there's also a governor's race where the Democrats have very strong candidate and that, that could, that could help the Senate candidate. So because of the redness of the state, because of the quality a candidate quality, I'd have to make Ashley hints in the favor today. But I do want to see what are the economic conditions in the state when we get to the general election. What is the president's approval rating? How do people feel about whoever the Democrats nominate, whether it's the state representative or the state senator. So this one we need to see play out a little bit more. But what we do know is it's a red state and Republicans have a strong candidate. That's what we know for sure. Those things aren't going to change. So I believe still, after all my reporting, that this is the most likely Democratic pickup. They win the other six, hold three, win three, and then win this one. But today you couldn't say Democrats are favored to win the Iowa Senate race. Just couldn't say it. Too soon to say anything like that. But there are reasons to think that they could. So that's what it would take. That's one path. Another path would be winning the race in Alaska. Now, Alaska is a, is a weird state electorally. They use this top four primary system. So in August, August 18, everybody votes for everybody on one ballot. And then the top four finishers, regardless of party, go to the general election. Now, that's a weird system. And the uncertainty of that, with ranked choice voting at the, at the general election means you don't really know what's going to happen. You don't know who the four are going to be. You don't know how the, the, the, the, the whole thing's going to work out. So between the top four system for the primary right in, in August, the two, the top Republican candidate, the incumbent, Dan Sullivan, he'll be one of the top four. The top Democratic candidate, former Congresswoman Mary Palatola, she'll be in the top four. So they're going to both be on the general election ballot and then it's ranked choice voting. Ranked choice voting. It creates uncertainty. Who will the other, who will the other two be? If somebody gets 50% of the vote in the first round then it's over. If not, then the ranked choice starts and the last person drops out and their votes, second choice votes are allocated to the other three and so on. Dan Sullivan is a very smart guy. He's a hard working senator. Doesn't take the state for granted. The Republican party likes him. Chuck Schumer to his credit he's. If it weren't for Chuck Schumer and Christian Kristen, what's her name, my own Senator Gillibrand who's the head of the Democratic campaign Committee. If they hadn't recruited so well in these races the Democrats would have no chance. So credit to them they got, they got Mills in the race in Michigan, in Maine. Now she may not end up being the nominee but if it weren't, if it weren't from their point of view that was a big get. Getting Governor Cooper to run in North Carolina, massive. Wouldn't be possible probably to win that seat without, without that recruitment and then same with Ohio. Wouldn't be possible to, to, to, to be a Republican incumbent center without Sherrod Brown. Big recruitment there and then and then in Alaska Mary Paltola is as good a candidate as Democrats could hope for in Alaska. She, she won the House race as a House candidate. She's, she's got good skills. We'll see how much money she raises. Some Democrats said to me they were not sure she can raise money but Pelo is got a chance now. I don't really think he can make her the favorite against an incumbent Republican in a very red state. I don't quite understand the explanations I got as in reporting for this why people are so high on her chances. But I can't rule it out. Again ranked choice voting makes it weird. We'll see who the other two finalists are but that's another one. That's one of the final pieces that could come together. I would be surprised if Dan Sullivan lost this race again. What does it take to beat an incumbent senator? An A candidate. Is she an A candidate? I think, I think she's arguably an A candidate. But then it takes a Republican senator to not raise money to have a scandal and be complacent. Don't see it, don't see those factors with Dan Sullivan. So I, I, I, I, I Want to see what happens in August. I want to see how, how each of them does right on the ballot altogether. But I, I don't think I'll ever make a maker the favorite. It doesn't mean she can't win. But he's an incumbent Republican in a red state. And then lastly, Texas. That's the race that's gotten the most attention. The Democrats are set. They nominated James Talarico, state representative. You all know him because you've seen him on tv. He's just a media darling. It's said to be a moderate, but he's really not. His positions are pretty liberal and, but he's, he speaks of as a man of faith, and he made it through the primary, a contested Democratic primary. Republicans have a runoff and their situation's different. Okay, Their runoff is in May. As of now, the President hasn't endorsed in the runoff. And again, you all know about this because it's got so much attention. John Cornyn is running against Ken Paxton. And the conventional wisdom in the establishment is if it's Paxton, he could lose. And, and, and my sources who are down on Paxton's chances of winning in a general election say if it's Paxton, put this at the top of the list, that Democrats who haven't won in decades in Texas would have a chance if it's Paxton because of all the scandals he's had and his inability to win votes ne perhaps from independence. And there are those in the establishment who support John Cornyn and an incumbent who say if it's Cornyn, it's over. Of course Republicans are going to win. Now, the polls that have come out since the, since the first round show that both Paxton and Cornyn could do quite well against Talarico. And in fact, the other dynamic is opposition. Research has started coming out on Talarico, and it's harder for, to convince the President to endorse Cornyn when the main argument that John Thune and the other members of the establishment have is he got endorsed Cornyn to save the seat. Because if it's not Cornyn, we could lose it. If it's, if it's Paxton, and if it's Paxton, we'd have to spend a lot of money to beat Talarico. I've never been, I've never been one who believed that for all the problems Paxton has, Talarico just has a bunch of problems, ladies and gentlemen. He's, he's more liberal by a lot than anyone who's won statewide in Texas in a good long while back when they were electing Democrats statewide decades ago. They weren't this liberal. Now, the state's demographically changing, but there's really no reason to believe, barring Paxton weakness, that Talaria could win. Now, what the Paxton people say is Cornyn could lose the seat too, because MAGA will be depressed. If the President doesn't endorse Paxton or endorses Cornyn, MAGA won't turn out. That could be true. But I think the bottom line for this is the most likely outcome is the President endorses Cornyn, Paxton gets out. I don't think the President will endorse Cornyn unless he's got an agreement that Paxton's going to get out. And if it's Cornyn versus Talarico, most of my sources, not all, but most, say that's not a contest Cornyn will win. Why are they so confident that, that what we already know about Talarico, as I said, is he's very liberal, but also they believe that there's a good chance that more will come out. So some of it's already come out. If you were thinking what would make a good Texas candidate or what would make a bad Texas candidate in a general election, one thing you'd probably say is, well, if you want a good candidate, make him someone who likes meat and if you want a weak candidate, make him someone who's a vegan. And this video, Talarico, I can't tell you how many Texans have sent it to me, head scratching, saying, is this going to be the first Democrat in decades to win statewide? Take a look, do. But also it's, as all of you know, necessary to fight climate change. It is now existential that we try to reduce our meat consumption and that we try to respect animals in all aspects of society. And so I, I am proud to say, say that our campaign has officially become a non meat campaign. So we have, we are, we are only buying vegan products from, from our local vegan businesses. So very few of my sources would make Texas the missing last piece, the fourth seat pickup. If it's Corning and, and even, even now, if it's, if it's Paxton, some say even then, or Democrats aren't going to win the seat. The Paxton Cornyn fight could go on for quite some time. If the President doesn't endorse and they take it all the way to the runoff in May, there's going to be a lot of negativity. And of course, the doom scenario for John Thune and other establishment Republicans is that Cornyn Raises and spends and outside groups spend millions knocking down Paxton. And then Paxton's the nominee and he's got all the baggage that they laid on him. Here's just one of the many attempts. Expect there to be more unless the President gets Paxton out of the race. Here's one of the many attempts to rough up Ken Paxton based on his background. He's got him a condo. It seats about 20. So hurry up and bring and make Paul money. Ken's large shack is a little low.
- [49:29]
Graham Platner
Please.
- [49:30]
Mark Halpern
Where favors last forever. Favors forever. So that one's not a gimme for Democrats either. And again, there could be a confluence of factors. If MAGA doesn't turn out for Cornyn or if he's the nominee, or more likely, if Paxton's the nominee and independents and Hispanic voters just go in droves to Talarico, Democrats could win that. The Hispanic vote's gonna be key no matter what. And there's some indications that Hispanics are gonna either stay home or vote more for Democratic candidates than they have recently. But I don't see it, ladies and gentlemen, I will say, based on my reporting and based on what I expect will happen to Talrico as this race goes on, I don't see Democrats winning the seat right now, even if it's Paxton. And so you go back to the question, what's the most likely third seat? Is it Texas, a red, red, red, red state? Is it Iowa where Democrats will have an unknown nominee and Republicans have a strong candidate, also a red state? Or is it Alaska where Republicans have a perfectly good incumbent and it's a red state? I don't know. I think I was most likely. But then you look at the fundamentals there and it doesn't seem like that's going to happen. So that's a challenge. That's a challenge to get that seventh, that, that fourth pickup. So I'll say again, you know, we've run through the nine races that are going to determine if they can take control. And I hope you've seen as I've gone race by race, that I won't say again, they'll all go one way. They could. They could all go one way. They could all go Democrat. They're not all going to go Republican probably, but they could because these races are really up for grabs. But the important thing is just the statistics, right? I've gone race by race and I've shown you Democrats are not shoe ins on any of the nine. And that's got to be a caution for anybody making a prediction about Democrats taking control. All right, we're taking a quick break. When we come back, I'm going to kind of wrap it all up and explain to you how to look at things going forward because what I've told you today is a snapshot of where we are now. I'll tell you what elements to look at in the month leading up to election day. That's next up. Let me ask you a question. Do you own physical gold? Most people do not. And given the current state of the world, this is worth thinking about. Acre Gold makes it simple. You pick a plan that fits your budget. You then make monthly payments and when you've accumulated enough in your account, they ship you a beautifully designed 24 karat Swiss gold bar. Gold is up 70% year over year. And central banks, they're still buying it at record levels. Smart money has been moving into hard assets like gold for a reason. They've had subscribers there stacking consistently for six years because once you hold it in your hand, you understand the difference between owning something real versus just a number flickering on a screen. Right now, they're giving away over 18 grams of gold in their acre declassified sweepstakes. Enter for free and subscribe to Gold@getacregold.com Mark again, it's getacregold.com
- [52:54]
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- [53:22]
Jennifer
Thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs? Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the times.
- [53:40]
Mark Halpern
With the times. You're playing the loot.
- [53:44]
Jennifer
Yeah. And it sounds pretty good, right?
- [53:46]
Mark Halpern
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide based on the February 2025 Nielsen report. All right, welcome back. Next up, let's wrap this up and explain what to look for for it going forward. Let's see who wins the primaries. That'll be key and not just judging in advance of who's stronger in Maine. Is it platinum or is it mills? Let's see how the primary rolls out. Let's see what kind of skills they show and what kind of ability they have to build a general election campaign team. What kind of skills they have to raise money. Democrats have had this huge advantage, talk about it here all the time. They're good at raising small dollars online, right? So let's see, because that can be a massive advantage. Money matters a lot in these Senate races. Now. Talk all the time also about Jamie Harrison, who's been a guest here, ran for Senate in South Carolina, raised over $100 million online, and lost badly to Lindsey Graham. Okay, so raising all that money online doesn't do everything, but it tells you something. And then let's see what the national environment's like, for sure. Let's see how, if the President's unpopular, let's see how he, how the candidates do and distancing themselves from Donald Trump. If gas prices are sky high in Iowa, if diesel sky high, if the tariffs are still seen as a negative, does Donald Trump campaign in Iowa? Right? Let's see how the national political operations work. How much fundraising is there from big dollars? Right. How much is raised from billionaires in these individual states? What does the crypto sector do? Do they side mostly with Republican candidates? Same with AI. They're going to be huge financial players, and then the debates will be a big deal, right? They're always, they're always a factor and are almost always a factor. And then running statewide, right? We got some candidates like Cooper in North Carolina, Brown in Ohio, Mills in Michigan. They've run statewide before. But this universe of folks that we're dealing with mostly haven't run statewide. Whether it's an open seat or for a challenger statewide, having run statewide, even in an era of the outsider, is an advantage. And so in, in part of why I'm more bullish on the Republicans chances of holding than some is John Sununu's run statewide, right? Susan Collins, incumbent state ride. Mike Rogers in Michigan has run statewide. Those are, those are advantages. Just as I say for the Democrats, Governor Cooper's run statewide in North Carolina, Brown's run statewide in, in Ohio. So Cornyn's run statewide as an incumbent. So that matters. You know, the experience of doing that, it means you've been vetted more, it means you know how to build an operation, et cetera. So I continue to say, obviously, it's, it's early. And people say, well, it's too early to say. This is just a snapshot of where we are now. There's lots to play out, the primaries, the debates, the fundraising. But if this were a matter of Democrats being more likely, say, to take the majority than not, this field would look much different. And as you watch it going forward, just keep your list in nine. And as there are developments, particularly again, the resolution of the primaries, ask yourself what Democrats chances are to win all of the six. All of the six. Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Maine. All six. They got to win all six. So if you see any of those slipping towards the Democrats or towards the Republicans and that could happen, you could see developments. John Sununu could, could turn out to be extraordinary candidates. Democrats could nominate a weak candidate in Maine. Sherrod Brown could, could turn out to be, you know, not, not in keeping with the mood of the state currently. If you see any of those six and you start to think, well, that's going to be a Republican win, either a pickup or a hold, that's not definitely it, but it's probably it. And then even if you say, all right, all six are on track for the Democrats, if you're a Democrat, you're excited. If you're Republican, you're concerned. If all six of those same again, Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, even if you say all six of them on track for Democrats, you still got to find the last pickup. And that's why, you know, you'll continue to watch those other three, continue to watch Texas, Iowa and Alaska. And until you can say Democrats have a great chance to win all of the big six and one more, you can't say they're the favorite. You can't even say their chances are that good. And that's really the bottom line. For my sources, even my Democratic sources, none of them said, oh, we got this, you know, we're going to be the majority. It's just a question of where we get. And the reality is at this point, given the, given the complexity of Democrats pulling this off, I actually think it might be true. I'm not saying it is true. It might be true that Democrats have a, Republicans have a better chance of increasing their majority than Democrats have of winning the majority. Might be true. We'll see how things develop. But that just shows you what an uphill battle this is. It's, it's easy to blithely say, oh, yeah, Republicans are going to lose the majority. You got to get to plus four. You got to get to plus four for the Democrats. And honestly, I don't see it today. Now, Democrats could win them all. They could win. They could, they could, they could hold their three. And in all honesty, if it's a huge Democratic year and things break right for them, they could, they could win. They could win eight Senate seats. I really can't rule out that they could win net eight Senate seats. They could, they could win all the ones, all the nine we've talked about. They could win Montana, they could win. They could win Nebraska. Could. But that's going to take a lot of stuff to go their direction. As of today. As of today, if you're going on Polymarket, you go into Ladbrokes, you go into Wager at your neighborhood tavern, Republicans will keep the majority, keep an open mind, keep watching it. But that's where it is today. All right, that's it for today's program. As always, love having you here. You can subscribe on YouTube, subscribe to the podcast, tell all your friends about nextup. If they're interested in this kind of stuff, share this episode with them. Say, hey, if you think you understand the Senate playing field, you think you understand how Democrats are going to do and their chance to take the majority, you need to listen to what Mark Halpern's saying about it. I did a lot of reporting. Very grateful to my sources in both parties and some independent analysts for helping me piece through this. This is, this is going to be an interesting midterm. And Democrats have their work cut out for them to win the majority. Thank you for watching. Thank you for being an extra. Thank you for being part of the program. Thank you for watching. So you always know what's coming next up.
- [60:43]
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Mark Halpern
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