← Next Up with Mark Halperin
Next Up with Mark Halperin
The J.D. Vance "Phony" Debate Shaking Up 2028, and Who Lost the Shutdown, with GOP Whip Tom Emmer
01:15:26
On this news-packed episode, Mark Halperin kicks off the show with his new reported monologue breaking down the economic decline and collapsing institutional trust fueling America’s unrest — and how the rise of AI is reshaping politics, society, and individual agency. This one is going to be a cliffhanger. Then, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer joins fresh off the successful vote to reopen the government, offering the behind-the-scenes story of how it all went down — and why, even in a shutdown where no one truly wins, Democrats, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, and congressional Democrats managed to lose this one. Emmer also explains the political calculus behind next week’s House vote to force release of the Epstein files. Next, Mark is joined by Rich Lowry, editor-in-chief of National Review, and Yemisi Egbewole, former Biden administration official, to run through the top stories — from why Democrats are outraged with moderates despite big election wins and the end of the 43-day...
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Mark Halperin
Struggling to see up close, make it visible with viz. VIZ is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using VIZ include eye irritation, temporary dim or dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if VIZ is right for you. Learn more@viz.com hey everybody, welcome. This is NextUp. Whether you're a regular nexter or this is your first time here, very happy to have you. Welcome in. I am Mark Halperin, the editor in chief of the live interactive video platform 2way and the host here of NextUp, where we try to tell you what's going to happen next up in around the United States and the world. Many thanks to all of you for tuning in. Very happy to have you here. And again, if you're here for the first time, welcome. Glad to have you. Great show for us today. Joining us will be Tom Emmer. He's the Republican whip in the US House. He's a great guest. We've had him here before. Happy to have him back to update us on what's happening next after the ending of the government shutdown, then our great conversation about everything in the news, including Jeffrey EPSTEIN and whether J.D. vance is a phony or not. This is a debate that's percolated up in my life based on some reporting I've done over the last two weeks. Rich Lowry will be here and Yemeni Egbowala will be here as well for a great conversation. Looking forward to seeing all three of them. But first, I want to talk to you all on my reported monologue about what is happening in this country. Big topic, of course. You know, a lot of what I do is minute to minute covering the news. And this week there was a lot of it. There has been for the last couple weeks with the election and then with the government shutdown and now the release of these Epstein documents and tons of other stories. And I have to report on that day to day and a lot of you are interested in the day to day. The other reporting I'm doing all the time, and I'll tell you in a second, how I do it for the most part is about the larger things going on in this country, the context, going back decades of how we got to where we are, how all these things kind of fit together. And we talk a lot about polarization. We talk a lot about Trump, Donald Trump, who dominates everything. But I get emails and calls all the time from really thoughtful people, people in politics, elective office consultants and strategists. Also people in the business world, people who are universities and and then just regular people who I know who are deeply thoughtful and they'll send me essays, just long discussions about what is going on, why are why is the state of the country the way it is? And of course, undergirding all that is the wrong track number when pollsters ask people, is the country going in the right direction or the wrong direction? And wrong track has been at the top for a long time, sometimes decisively. And then the other big question I look at is when people are asked, will your kids and grandkids have the same or equal or less economic opportunity than you did? And we've seen over a long time people say less. Right. And, and all that adds up to not only contributes to the polarization, not only led to the rise of Donald Trump, but there's, there's more to it. So my reported monologue on what I think's going on big picture in the country from talking to folks of late, that's coming next up. Don't go away. All right. Welcome back. Let's jump right into what I've been reporting on this week. A lot of people reaching out to me to try to put in context what's happened. Why was there a government shutdown of unprecedented length? What happened with the election results? What's happening with we talked about last episode, the rise of Nick Fuentes and others. What is going on in this country. And you got to look at the basic building blocks of what we're seeing that undergirds not just the polarization, not just the feeling that the country's headed in the wrong direction, which is pervasive and has been for a while, but also the feelings of alienation amongst our young, not just men. We talked last week about young men, but young women as well. There's something off in this country right now and understanding what's going on. Why are people reacting so negatively? Why do we have all this conflict? That's super important to understand it. And so I think it's important for all of us to sometimes take a step back from being on our phones and scrolling through X and latest headlines and news alerts and trying to try to think a little bit more thoughtfully about what's happening. And as I said before, I'm blessed to have people in my life, some Republicans, some Democrats, some very political people, some people not all that interested in politics, who do that kind of deep thinking. And they're all over the country. I live in New York City. But I always say it's important for me to not think of myself as understanding the United States through the prism of New York, but through the whole country. And one heartening thing is the most thoughtful people I know pretty much agree on what they think the context is of this, of this malaise, of this current sense of unease in the country, regardless of whether they like Donald Trump or not. And so what I'm going to lay out for you today is my kind of broad theory of the case, from all the reporting I've done over the last couple months, really, but really intensely over this week of what's wrong, what are we trying to solve here? How do we try to adapt to a changing situation, America's young country, but the extraordinary change, a lot of it driven by technology of the last couple decades, three or four, two or three decades, massive. It's massive. And we got to understand it to try to solve it. So the first thing is the economic decline. The United States used to dominate the world. We were a manufacturing country, big exporter and unchallenged by others. And now not only competition with China or Europe, rather, but of course China. That economic decline, whether you're a man who's been laid off in your 50s or 60s, whether you're a woman who's trying to figure out how to get into the workplace, whether you're a young person with student loans and no prospect of buying a home, whoever you are, there are people in the economy, the elites, who are doing very well in this economy. We saw that in Covid. But the long term economic decline, the long term inability of particularly the current younger generations to see America as a land of limitless opportunity. It's a real problem. And that undergirds a lot of what we're seeing in terms of conflict, in terms of people's disillusionment, to terms of people's lack of full enthusiasm, excitement, confidence about America, the American dream, the American experience. So that economic decline, and there are lots of reasons for it, particularly the long term decline of the manufacturing base in this country. It's a very big one. And that has led to and been fueled by distrust in institutions. We saw that again, the seeds go back, academics will tell you this, to Watergate and Vietnam, then the financial crisis, then Covid. But this distrust in big institutions, government, I'd say first and foremost is pervasive in our society. And again, younger people in particular, distrust of traditional media, distrust of what I call the health care monster, all the insurance companies, the hospitals, the doctors Just distrust in our health care system. And the Affordable Care act gave hope to some, but many others, it reinforced their view that our health care system doesn't work. And then big tech, man, big tech is just a, it's a, it's a blessing and a curse. You know, the benefits the United States, we dominate big tech. China has some big companies too. But compared to the rest of the world, our big technology companies, hardware, software, Internet, mobile, were incredible. Incredible. And yet at the same time, people are really angry at big tech. And there's all sorts of reasons to be. Invasion of privacy, failure to protect our kids, and then the algorithm polluting the minds of everybody, but particularly the young people. It's that combination, right? Economic decline where people don't feel their kids are going to have the same economic opportunity they do. People with horror stories about their trajectory. Not everybody. Some people in this country are doing great. They're blessed to be able to take advantage of the freedom we have here in the robust dynamic market. But for the working class, the middle class, just a pervasive sense of decline and then pair that with the distrust in institutions, okay, that's not the way America was for a long period of time, particularly post World War II, where 1960 saw Bad of this, but of the distrust in institutions. But we were a robust economic power. Now, the most common development attributed to these two factors, economic decline and distrust in institutions, the rise of Donald Trump directly connected. Now, Donald Trump would never have been able to get the Republican nomination or become president had it not been for those twin factors. And the distrusted institutions is something Trump has talked about and felt for such a long period of time. But it's also led to the rise of independent voices, the independent media, Megyn Kelly and others. Understanding that if you, if people aren't interested in big media and they want new media, they want independent media, but they want independent media voices who will challenge big government, challenge Silicon Valley companies, challenge the healthcare system in a fundamental way. That rise of these independent forces is so important, gives hope to so many people, but also again, double edged sword with all these things, which is it's Balkanized us, it's divided us, it's put us in silos where you used to have when there was only traditional media and there was plenty of downsides to that, but used to have a sense of togetherness of everybody gathering around traditional media, everybody believing that the health care system was a good one, believing that big government was flaws and all, was not something to just be totally distrustful of. It's all gone. And, and we have to deal with that reality. There's, there's negatives to it being gone, but they're positives as well. And what we're seeing now, so many of the people I've talked to about these issues said is, is we're at the crossroads with AI. AI is just, just a, it's so powerful already. And we talk about it here on the program a lot because, because if you're someone using it in your work or using it in your life, if you're someone who, in your job, wherever you work, part of your job is to understand the potential of AI, you're in it, you're thinking about it in a very thoughtful, day to day way, but also long term. But for most of you and for me, it's not integrated into everything right now. I'm using it as much as I can as an efficiency tool, but also because I want to understand the future. Right? So here's the question to me about AI. Is it going to empower the people or is it going to empower the powerful? Because right now it's. The trajectory we're on is empowering the powerful more than the people. And that's extremely unfortunate because the powerful is already powerful enough. Right? They don't need help. But AI has the potential if, if, if the citizenry, even if it's not something your boss or your parents or your community are telling you to use, if you, if you avail yourself of it and it's out there. The best ones cost money, but they're very powerful ones that are free. If you want to be part of the future, you can be. And it can empower you. You can, you can do stuff with AI yourself that would take 100 people to do as long as you learn how to use it. So the people can win with AI, if the people understand it and take advantage of it. And it's going to take some benevolence on the part of some bosses and teachers and schools and parents, community leaders to, to teach people how to use it, that it is the future. Now if that doesn't happen, and again, the current trajectory that we're on is much different. It will once again cause distrust in institutions once again. It will create economic hardship for people and the, the rich will get richer, the income disparities will get bigger. That is truly the crossroads we're at. There are other factors besides AI for sure, but it's the big one. It's the big one. I was a skeptic. I was never a skeptic. Of the Internet. I had people in my life who said, we joke with my dad all the time. When he said the Beatles became popular when he was a kid, he said, they're just a fad. And no. And then when the Internet started, I had a news executive I worked with, very smart guy, extremely successful. But he said, the Internet will be a fad. No AI. I was skeptical. Not that it wouldn't be a big part of the life of very sophisticated organizations like the social media companies or design of a submarine. But I was wrong. More and faster than I had anticipated just a couple months ago, AI is going to change everything. It really is, and it can change things to restore faith in institutions and make the economy work better for everybody or not. And my biggest concern, after talking to people this week who work with AI, very thoughtful people in politics, my biggest concern is that AI will do what the social media companies have done, which is exacerbate these problems rather than fix them. That's the biggest problem, I think, facing, literally facing our society right now. How do we get to the point where the AI integration into our lives, into our personal lives, our professional lives, as a consumer, how do we get to the point where that's fixing these problems, restoring faith in institutions and allowing all people to thrive economically? And the optimists, the futurist optimists, who paint a picture of the future where, in fact that's exactly what happens, that empowers the people. I don't think that's the trajectory we're on. I'm extremely worried about it. And every one of us has to look for agency. Every one of us has to think about these old institutions can only be propped up so far. We're going to have media, we're going to have a health care system, we're going to have government, we're going to have social media. Those things are not going to be banned in our society or go away. And so. And they're going to be big, right? The health care system is going to be big, Government's going to be big, Media is going to be big. How do we, how do we use AI and how do we, as, as a people, how do we force those institutions to change their conduct in a way that restores our faith in them and that allows our economy to flourish? Okay. Each of them has huge problems right now. The government shut down. I mean, you talk about lack of faith in government. You saw President Trump's poll numbers go down around that. But, you know, I don't even need a Poll to tell you because, because I've been traveling and talking to people. People are, people are not going to have faith in government to do what's right. If the government had its longest shutdown of all time, if people saw their, their people in their community or themselves lose their jobs. The healthcare system now this happened two or three times over the course of my career. People, people are so disgusted with the healthcare system plans, whether they have the Affordable Care act or get, get coverage through work or some other way, cost too much, do too little, super high premiums, ridiculous deductibles, deductibles so high that it's really just a catastrophic plan that everything's going to be expensive and out of pocket unless you know you've got, you have some catastrophic illness in your family where, yeah, there'll be a little bit of support there after you hit the deductible. This is not what people expect from their health care system. And so there's a lack of faith there. Now how's that going to change? Is Washington going to try to fix it? I can tell you this. The health insurance companies are not going to generously volunteer to fix it themselves. And then media, we see, we talk about it here all the time. The rise of Barry Weiss, of Megyn Kelly. These are important moments to say there can be a different kind of media for sure. People need to have trust in that, but we need big institutions. And then these social media companies, these tech companies, they're, they're at the heart of what I think the problem is. And I worry most of all about them using AI to improve their algorithms even more to pollute our brains and our kids brains for them to use the algorithm, AI even more to produce products that are dominant and where they have monopoly. Things like meta, things like Google, very dangerous, very dangerous. And every individual has to fight for societal change. But most people, they're too busy to do that or don't have that. You know, they're not part of the right organization to do that. But you can do it in your own life. You can do it in your own life. There's been on the right in particular more than on the left, but there's some on the left. This fight to build up parallel institutions, independent media, alternative social platforms, in banking, that's another area where people have rebelled against the establishment and the organizations. Everybody needs to think about what can, what choices can you make in your own life as a consumer to try to empower yourself? And starts with the thing that almost everyone listening to this I'd say literally everyone has carried with them at all times, which is your phone, your smartphone, right. Most people are carrying around an iPhone, an Apple phone or an Android device. And by doing that you're, you're giving up so much. You're giving up so much of, of what people are rebelling against, which is these institutions in Silicon Valley give you the impression you're being empowered. There's no, there's no device I believe ever invented, the possible exception of the, of the automobile, that has empowered people more than the, the smartphone. But it's enslaving us. And I'll tell you, I, I have been using a new phone, it's made by our sponsors, it's called the upphone. It come from Unplugged and I couldn't recommend it to you more. Psychologically, it's a huge relief to use it. It's a huge relief when you see what it does. When you see how you go from thinking you're being empowered by having this device to being empowered where your privacy is protected, that's a huge psychological lift. I feel it every day. But it's also, it's also practically brilliant because what it does is, gives you the very first alternative that anyone's created. It's an open source phone. It's actually designed to protect your rights. Instead of handing your data over to be harvested by these companies and ad companies every second of every day, independent testing that's been done on the phone shows that it blocked every single tracker. That on an iPhone or a Galaxy Phone is going to send thousands of data points every day to third parties. Thousands, literally. And you can see it on the upphone. You can see how much data they're keeping from going out. Because when you're browsing, when you're on these apps, it's just harvesting your data. UPPhone offers you a 30 day trial. You can return the phone very easily if you want independent from these institutions. If you want to live a life where you're not giving your privacy away for other people's profit, this phone is a great place to start. Go right now to learn more@unplugged.com See what this phone is all about. See how much of your privacy you can get back so these institutions cannot dominate your life. Okay, I will say again how important it is to make choices like this. How important it is to get your freedom back. We're going to have to deal with big institutions. You don't want to spend your life fighting the insurance companies, fighting big government, being angry at media, all of us need to figure out, and consumerism is one of the best ways to do it. The market will respond. If the market says we don't want bad health care, if the market says we're not going to accept these big organizations that are stealing from us our privacy and our identities, we're not going to accept a government that's not responsive to the people, that's going to be the best way to fix it. But I got to be honest with you, the status quo is not great. The status quo is not great. The economy is still got a lot of long term problems. The Trump administration's trying to figure it out and there's positive signs there. And this is the best economy in the world. Not just now, but our legal system, our education system, our entrepreneurial spirit, our natural resources, our great cities, rural areas, this is agriculture, this country. We can't be too gloom and doom because there's so much great energy. But, but at the same time, we have to recognize that a lot of the tensions in our society, a lot of the hopelessness and fentanyl and suicide rates, a lot of that pertains to these two twin things that I started telling you about the economy and all this lack of trust in big institutions. We can't, we can't function as a society if everybody's orientation or so many people's orientations is negative towards our institutions. Banks, houses of worship, all the corporate stuff and big government and health care, we can't function like that. So we need to make it better. We need to use AI to make it better. And we need to as individuals, as organizations, as political leaders, everybody in the media, we need to rebuild this country on our greatest traditions with a recognition that strong economy, trusted institutions always being skeptical, that's the American way, but not hatred and distrust and conspiracy theories aimed at every institution of any size. That's not sustainable. We need a new direction and the best thing to do. Again, empower yourself about AI. I'm telling you, think about it every day. It's a little overwhelming, but you got to think about every day if you want to be part of the future and part of restoring both economic opportunity and trust in our institutions in this country, be part of the AI revolution. I, I was a skeptic, but now I totally get it. It's absolutely, absolutely vital. That's my long term, bigger picture thoughts coming up in our conversations. We'll get down the granular details a little bit more of what's in the news. I want to hear what you think about what I had to say today. Send me your thoughts. Email me@nextup halpernmail.com and of course, we'd love for you to subscribe to the YouTube channel. You can watch the full episodes there and bonus content clips from the shows. I'm@YouTube.com NextUp Halperin and the show's a podcast and again, listen to it, watch it, whatever you want to do. But please share it with Everybody. Subscribe to NextUp with Mark Halpern. Wherever you get your podcasts, make sure you check the downloads and that's turned on so you'll get every episode and you'll get them right away. And again, share it with folks. We got to spread the word. Nextup is new, but we need more Nexters. More Nexters the better. So if you haven't told your friends about the show, do. I was at a school event yesterday and some parent not in my kid's grade came up to me and looked at me and said, I'm an extra. I like that. So please share it with everybody. Quick break. Now. When we come back, the gentleman from Minnesota, Congressman Tom Emmer, the whip number three guy in the House for the Republicans, will join us. Tom Emmer is next up. Everybody, I want to tell you about the Vapor Technology Association. It's an organization started about 10 years ago to protect the rights of Americans who choose alternatives to smoking. And it's about the small businesses who have made a living using this technology and they support science based policies and the right of adults to make healthier choices. Did you know that there were many family owned vape shops and manufacturers across the country who are now under attack thanks to outdated Biden administration regulations that threaten to wipe out an entire industry? The Vapor Technology association, also called vta, says businesses are being destroyed and people are losing their jobs. But the VTA says President Trump now has a clear opportunity to change all this and to protect Americans, right to make their own choices to defend small businesses and restore a free and fair marketplace. Go right now to VaporTechnology.org so you can learn more about the organization and why they're leading the charge to support American innovation. And if you're there and their mission appeals to you, consider becoming a member again. That's the vapor technology. That's vapor technology.org and tell them you heard about all of this on NEXT up.
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Rich Lowry
All right.
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Mark Halperin
Joining me now after an eventful couple weeks in politics in Washington, Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota, Republican House Majority Whip. Congressman, welcome back to Next up.
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Tom Emmer
Great to be with you, Mark, tell.
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Mark Halperin
Me the story of how the shutdown ended. If you were, if you were writing a Wikipedia entry or a history book, we had the longest shutdown in American history. How and why did it end, in.
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Tom Emmer
Your view, 43 days. How and why? I, I think eight Democrats in the Senate suddenly decided they were, they had had enough of the nonsense and they were going to put the American people ahead of Chuck Schumer'. I'm not sure why they stuck with him for 43 days, Mark, but at the very end, I mean, somebody asked me about these polls that are all over the place. You know, you like one poll, you'll hate the next one. Don't look at polls when you try to figure out who won the shutdown, because nobody wins in a shutdown. The American people are the ones that feel it the most. And, you know, it was probably the last two weeks you started this interview saying an eventful two weeks. It was 43 days. But about two weeks ago, you had air traffic controllers not get paid. Then the next day, more federal employees. The next day after that, more. The Saturday after that, 42 million low income Americans face the prospect of losing their SNAP benefits, their nutrition supplement, the Women, Infant and Children program that people rely on was interrupted, the Head Start program, and the list goes on and on. I think at that point they were starting to actually hear from their constituents about what are you doing and why. And again, thank goodness for those eight Democrats finally growing the spine to do the reasonable thing and reopen the government. I was frankly stunned by last night. I was stunned we only had six of our Democrat colleagues in the House vote with us because I'm going to tell you those, those districts, I understand that Hakeem was less than relevant through this whole process and I understand that he has his own leadership challenges, but to stick with him last night, you're going to have to answer for that in the future. The good news is whether you're a Democrat or a Republican today, unless you are the absolute fringe. Mark, I think most of the people here are relieved and pleased that we are finally open and we're going to start doing business again.
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Mark Halperin
Never try to take the politics out of politics or the polarization out of our current politics, because that's a fool's errand. But one thing that Democrats did do, and the ones who think they won the shutdown fight, say this is health care, is now front and center. The conference is talking about health care, the White House is talking about health care. So I want to try to talk about it really, about in the interests of people in Minnesota and for the country. Let's see if we can talk about it, not about the politics of it. When you talk to your constituents, what are their three top complaints about their personal health care? Their personal health insurance number 1, 2, 1, 2 and 3.
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Tom Emmer
Health insurance is too expensive. And we were restricted on choices of who we're going to see and when we're going to see them. Look, wait, hold on.
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Mark Halperin
I'm sorry, hold on. That's two. Too expensive, meaning premiums are too high, deductibles are too high, co pays are too high. Right, all three of those. And then, and then their ability to access certain providers is limited. What's the third? Besides those?
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Tom Emmer
Well, I don't know. I mean, healthcare is a mess, Mark. And what I say to you, is this good for the Democrats. They're the ones who broke it. This idea that they won the shutdown because everybody's talking about health care. Everybody was going to be talking about health care anyway. Anybody bothered to think about the fact that these guys already knew that this cliff was coming, that they created the Affordable Care act with only Democrat votes and that broke the healthcare system. This is the reason that costs are up almost 100% since the unaffordable Care act was made law in this country. They're the ones who broke it. The only people that are gonna be able to fix it are Donald Trump and Republicans. And what were they doing the last 43 days? Yeah, they'd bring up healthcare, but then they bring up Trump and then they bring up democracy and then they talk about the economy. They have no idea what they stand for other than they hate Donald Trump. And they know that when it comes to this health care law, it's the Unaffordable Care act that has made it unaffordable for Americans. And the only way you're going to fix it is by reforming the actual law. And Trump has already started going after pharmaceutical prices. Republicans and Democrats, I will give some of the more centrist Democrats have had ideas for years of increasing HSA contributions, allowing people to keep more of their money and make more of their decisions, putting competition back into the marketplace with more transparency and more choice. This discussion has been long overdue. This idea that it was about these enhanced Covid era insurance premium tax credits, Mark, really, the average health insurance premium is going up about 30% this year. Okay. If you extend those any period of time. Again, the temporary Covid enhanced tax credits that premium subsidies, tax credits that the Democrats Created during COVID to expire at the end of this year, it would only address about 5% of that increase. The problem is the health care marketplace.
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Mark Halperin
Right. So totally right. Couldn't agree with you more. What they were focusing on, not for them unimportant, but a tiny piece of the system and not a piece of the system that everybody would support. So what's Tom Emmer's vision? You rattled off some of the broad principles. What's your vision of how this will go? Not the policy side now, but would you want the president or expect the president to announce in the State of the Union a health care bill? Is there going to be a single Republican reform plan? How's it going to go?
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Tom Emmer
I know you'd love to have me be the chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee and be able to give you line and verse. This is what the Republican plan is. I'm not going to give that to you. I'm telling you that we had to open the government, which we just did last night. After a foolish, unnecessary and very damaging shutdown caused by Chuck Schumer and Democrats, we've now got the government open. Now is the time to talk about real solutions to the very real challenges that Americans are facing trying to pay for their health care.
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Mark Halperin
I'm not asking, I'm sorry, I'm not asking you for the plan today because I know you're getting it, but are you trying to formulate something where there'd be a, a Trump Emmer Thune plan, that one big Republican reform plan or that's not where you're headed?
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Tom Emmer
Oh, no. I think Republicans, Democrats alike are gonna be working on the bigger problem. And yes, you can talk to our doctors caucus. There are ideas that have been out there pooling options, many different things that now they're gonna have to sit down and put this together. What's the best way? By the way, if this was really about healthcare, do you realize that there was a premium reducing and I won't get into the wee, but a premium reducing provision in the reconciliation bill that Senate Democrats fought to take out?
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Mark Halperin
Yeah.
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Tom Emmer
I mean, this stuff, to them, it's not about health care, it's just about the politics. There are centrist Democrats, though, that have worked with Republicans in the past. And I believe there's a whole bunch of these ideas about creating more choice by creating more transparency and allowing a competitive marketplace to, to grow again instead of just fattening up these, these health insurers that are making all the money while Americans are struggling to get the Health care that they need and they deserve.
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Mark Halperin
Right. Well, I look forward to following your consultations with your colleagues and, and maybe with Democrats as well, not just your Republican colleagues about some sort of bill. I want to talk about the Epstein matter. Very rare to have a successful so called discharge petition where a majority of the members sign something that say we want a bill on the floor and not brought on by the leadership. That's going to happen. There'll be a vote. I've heard people say there might be 25 Republicans who vote for this even though only a handful sign the discharge petition. I've heard people say up to 100. You're the whip. How many House Republicans do you suspect will vote for this piece of legislation calling for disclosure of Epstein documents?
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Tom Emmer
We don't whip discharge petitions. Whatever happens, it's pretty much a done deal. It'll be voted on next week. I think Mike Johnson would have had it up for a vote last night if it wasn't the fact that we had to reopen the government and everybody get back to their districts and be back on Sunday night, Monday morning. It'll get voted next week. The interesting thing about this, Mark, is Democrats are trying to argue that this is about, this is about something more than just Donald Trump. Well, they showed us again in the Last couple of days, 60, almost 60,000 documents have now been published by the House Oversight Committee including all of the records from the Epstein estate. And what do the Democrats do? They cherry pick three records that mention Donald Trump out of the 60 some thousand and guess what? They redact the name of an actual public victim has exonerated Trump and said he did absolutely nothing wrong. So their whole goal is to attack Trump. Republicans are more interested in the victim victims making sure that they get justice on the people that.
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Mark Halperin
Will you vote for the legislation when it comes up? Personally?
- [34:44]
Tom Emmer
No, I'm not going to vote for it.
- [34:46]
Mark Halperin
Why not?
- [34:47]
Tom Emmer
I don't vote for discharge petitions.
- [34:50]
Mark Halperin
Well, would you support the underlying premise of the legislation?
- [34:55]
Tom Emmer
That ship has sailed. In my opinion that is all about politics. That is Democrats with a couple of Republicans that. Yeah, I think the Republicans hearts are in the right places, but I think they're being used by Democrats who are not interested in the victims and justice. They're interested in going after Donald Trump. And I say that because the House Oversight Committee has already produced more documents than this discharge petition even covers. So. Okay, well, I think the House is doing the work that needs to be done.
- [35:24]
Mark Halperin
All right, one more question about this and then move on. What are your if any. What are your unanswered questions that you wonder about regarding the Epstein matter?
- [35:32]
Tom Emmer
Actually, the Epstein matter will run its course. We will find out who the perpetrators were. They will be held accountable. I have no doubt about that. In the meantime, Mark, I'm more interested in let's get the work done before the end of the year. Let's get these last nine appropriations bills done. Let's make sure the government is funded through next September and let's make sure we keep delivering on Donald J. Trump's America first agenda. That's the most important thing as far as I'm concerned.
- [36:01]
Mark Halperin
Okay. I've talked to you and others to say next year, the party and again, I'm talking about the substance here, not the politics. You want to tell the voters in the midterms, promises made, promises kept. Right. What work needs to be done to keep the promise on the economy that you'd like to see done by the House and the Senate and the administration? What are things that still need to be accomplished on the economy that haven't been done yet?
- [36:24]
Tom Emmer
We've got look, the biggest stuff has been accomplished, that permanent tax policy, the no taxes on tips, no taxes on overtime, largest middle class tax cut in the history of this country, the largest spending reduction in the history of this country. A lot of the work has already been done. And I think what you'll see a year from now is because experts will tell you it'll take a full two years for that permanent tax policy. A lot of money was sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how it was going to be treated In January of 2026, as of July, they know how it's going to be treated. So that money is now being deployed. It takes time for it to get to the ground and start to ignite all the new growth that we'll see. It'll take a full two years for that to hit with 100% is what I'm told by experts. But by next spring, next summer, you will feel it as it's starting to grow. That will help us in the midterms. And then we're going to have to do some things, for instance, with permitting reform, with eliminating excessive regulations. This might be in the weeds a little bit, but I think we have the best capital markets. That's where a lot of people draw their capital in order to start new projects from. And I think French Hill has a this is his our chairman of the Financial Services Committee has a whole bunch of reforms and improvements to allow that capital to start flowing again. To Main Street. Those are small details. The biggest work was done back in July.
- [37:50]
Mark Halperin
Is there anything in the basket of goods the emers buy every month that still seems expensive to you?
- [37:56]
Tom Emmer
I'm going to tell you, healthcare is the worst. It's the absolute worst. It's amazing how the expenses since I've been serving in Congress just continue to go up while nothing else does in our life. So no, I think we feel what most Americans who are, I mean, we're married, we got a whole bunch of kids, they're trying to support a household and do a bunch of different things. Mark. But I do feel good about the fact that wages are growing at a faster pace than they have in 60 years. Feel good about the what I believe is a looming economic boom that's going to happen because of what we accomplished in July. So I think the sky is blue and the glass is half full and we're in for a great ride. The golden age of America is going.
- [38:48]
Mark Halperin
To be here just to drill down on health care. You've, you've got your health care through the government, right. You've got a government policy. So do you. Is it your premiums that are high or co pays or high deductibles?
- [39:00]
Tom Emmer
The co pay the. Oh, it's, it's obnoxious. Yeah.
- [39:03]
Mark Halperin
And what about at the grocery store? Is there anything you like to buy and eat that seems, still seems expensive to you?
- [39:09]
Tom Emmer
Mark? I'm eating less and less. I'd love to see the price of beef come down, but I'm kind of conflicted there because I know that the guys who have been struggling for years are finally making a little bit of money. So, no, I just, I think overall Trump has attacked this in a, I mean, Look, Democrats spent $2 trillion in something called the American Rescue plan when they first got in under Biden. Economists call that the original sin. That's what drove double digit inflation like we hadn't seen in 40 years. Donald Trump inherited, he got elected because of it and he inherited a broken economy which he's got the prices of eggs coming down, he's got the prices of energy coming down. We got the lowest gas prices that we've seen in five years. But he inherited a broken economy and he is process of rebuilding it. By the way, Democrats didn't learn from the last time they put this country in the ditch. What was their answer with this shutdown? They wanted to spend $1.5 trillion, almost the same thing that caused the problem back with the American Rescue plan. These guys have a Record of fixing it, making it work. Donald Trump and Republicans do.
- [40:23]
Mark Halperin
Back in ancient history, before the Internet, did you ever read Growing up in Politics, Getting interested in the Almanac of American Politics? Do you know that book?
- [40:32]
Tom Emmer
Yeah, I do, but I don't remember that I read it.
- [40:36]
Mark Halperin
It's most. It meant to be a reference book, but every. There was, there were, There were chapters on every, every congressional district in the country. And Michael Barone, who wrote it with others, it would start with like a description of the district, like what was there, the history of the district, who'd represented it, the demographic changes for. For nerds, for politics. It was incredible. And you think about the country as 435 congressional districts. Right? Like, fascinating for me, at least. Let me ask you about your district. What are the three most world famous things in your congressional district?
- [41:06]
Tom Emmer
Well, I. Unfortunately, one of them is not in my district. That I would quickly cite because you drive right through if you're coming out of my district. It's called the world's largest ball of twine.
- [41:17]
Mark Halperin
I know that. But that's just outside what's in the district.
- [41:21]
Tom Emmer
That's got to sign the court, man.
- [41:22]
Mark Halperin
What. What are the three most famous things in your district?
- [41:27]
Tom Emmer
The mighty Mississippi. What? Oh, no, I. My whole district is famous.
- [41:34]
Mark Halperin
All right, My point is. My point is most districts have beautiful, beautiful things, scenery, great people, but not necessarily anything world famous. Let me tell you about my congressional district, all right? My congressional district. Here are some of the famous things in my district. Broadway, Times Square, Central parks, Empire State Building. My point is, I live in an unusual district. New York's 12th district has been represented by your friend Jerry Nadler. He's retiring. Wide open race, lots of people running, some rumored, some not. A young man got in the race this week. Do you know this young man? Jack Sloshberg? You heard of him?
- [42:10]
Tom Emmer
No, I have not yet.
- [42:11]
Mark Halperin
All right, so he's President Kennedy's grandson, Caroline Kennedy's son, and he's putting himself forward. He wants to be Tom Emmer's colleague. I want to show you he's very active on social media. I want to show you a little bit of his work on social media and we'll talk about his. His prospects. Play that for the Congressman, please. Dear President Putin, every child shares the same quiet dreams in their heart. Whether born randomly into nation's rustic countryside or maybe magnificent city center, they dream of love, possibility and safety from danger. As parents, our duty is to nurture next generation. Hope he's imitating Melania Trump reading the letter she wrote to Vladimir, sustain our children. Extend beyond the comfort of a few. All right, that goes on like that. Do we have another one? I want the Congressman to get upsets. We have another one we can play. Yeah, this is him talking about Usha Vance.
- [43:12]
Yemeni Egbowala
Here for you.
- [43:20]
Tom Emmer
This isn't the way usa, there's still time.
- [43:26]
Mark Halperin
So, Congressman, these are not from ancient history. These are like from the last year or two. And. And there's more all over social media. Again, he's a Kennedy grandson of JFK, only JFK's only grandson. His mom was ambassador to Japan. How would he fit in in Congress? How would you appraise his prospects to be a good member of the House based on just what you saw there?
- [43:47]
Tom Emmer
I think he'd fit in better at Saturday Night Live. He's got a big future in comedy and satire. I'd like to know before I go farther, what's his economic policy? What does he believe when it comes to safety and security in our neighborhoods, in our state, in our country, our world? How does he feel about immigration? Legal, illegal? I'd love to know what he actually thinks about the issues of the day rather than the entertainment factor. We've got a growing group of entertainers that have entered Congress. They're very good with social media. They're very good with, you know, the. The cute, whatever it is. And they do get attention. I give them credit for that. But at the end of the day, if you run, you're running to win. And if you win, you're expected to govern. And in order to govern, you got to have some core understanding of the economy, of national defense, of local safety and security. You got to know these issues and what you showed me there. He'd make a great guest on Saturday Night Live.
- [44:57]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, you know, he announced for the seat this week, and again, it's a very crowded primary. Maureen Dowd in the New York Times wrote a 5,000 word piece about him, spent a lot of time with him. He talks a little bit about policy there. Maybe not in the granular detail, you mean. And he got a big interview on MSNBC and he's off and running. If he's the Democratic nominee, could you beat him if you moved here? And could you beat him in the general? In California, in New York's 12th district?
- [45:23]
Tom Emmer
I got news for you now. You reminded me why my district is so great, because I don't have to deal with the stuff that you deal with in your district. I mean, they just elected a Communist, for goodness sakes. In New York City. My district. More than 50% of the ground is still in agricultural production. St. Cloud, Minnesota, used to be the highest concentration of Catholics anywhere. German Catholics, by the way, anywhere in the country which most people would never know. They think it's somewhere in Baltimore. I like Midwestern people. I like Midwestern value. I find you New Yorkers are great to be around and spend time with, and you're very entertaining, but I kind of like the pace that we move at.
- [46:04]
Mark Halperin
I hear you. I hear you. Yeah. You'll be shocked. You might want to sit down for a moment. He endorsed Mr. Mamdani very early on.
- [46:10]
Tom Emmer
Oh, well, then I. Maybe we know his. Well, what are my. Never mind.
- [46:15]
Mark Halperin
Anyway, anyway, the House, the conventional wisdom is there's only going to be like 15, 16, 17 competitive seats and that neither party is going to likely have very big advantage. Do you agree with. After the election, do you agree with that that there's fewer than 20 competitive seats and that probably we're going to see a majority of. Not much bigger for either side than it is now?
- [46:38]
Tom Emmer
I think we are evenly divided, but no, I don't think you could predict that way. And I don't think that Tuesday election, a week ago, or whenever it was, seems forever now, was bad at all for us. I mean, they won the places they were supposed to. You literally. New York, I love using the example on the island. You've got two Democrat seats. 100% of the 4th congressional district in New York is in Nassau County. 75% of the third is in Nassau County. The 2 million residents of Nassau county just reelected a Republican county executive and his numbers improved 11 points. You got Binghamton, the largest city In New York's 19th congressional district, also represented by a Democrat. Democrat, they just elected a Republican mayor a year after Kamala Harris won the city by 25 points. So, no, first off, you've got 11 seats that Democrats hold right now that are Trump seats. Those are definitely in play for us. You've got another 20, some that were that the Democrat won the seat by five points or less. A swing seat is typically defined as a seat that could go five points either way. So the question on those is, do you get a charismatic candidate? Do you have a local issue? Is there some reason that one of those races comes on the map? And it's way too early to tell right now, Mark, I think we are going to have all kinds of opportunities. At the end of the day, I will be conservative and tell you I think the House is destined to be within a handful of seats either way.
- [48:12]
Mark Halperin
For either way. So you agree with me on the second point. On the first point, you highlighted the, the seats that you, you're on offense. Either House Democrats in districts won by Donald Trump in the last election or where the margin was close, there's obviously seats on the other side that you'll be playing defense on. What's the, what's the ceiling for you? What's the maximum number of seats on both sides that you think will be competitive? Is it, is it up to 30, more than 30? Because we've had, we've had cycles where it's 60.
- [48:38]
Tom Emmer
You and I will get to know each other, I'm sure. One, I don't, I don't give numbers, but I'll give it to you this way. Under the last decade's maps, out of the 435 seats in the House, there were roughly 80 to 85 swing seats. This decade's maps reduced that to probably 45 to 55. This is why this argument that, oh, you're going to have a 230 seat majority again or a 240 seat. No, you're not. It just isn't going to look that way. The districts have continued to get more blue and more red and you keep reducing the competitive seats. The difference now is Donald Trump. Donald Trump moved the needle with traditional Democrat voters more than anyone in our party ever has. And that's working men and women, that's black voters, Asian voters, Hispanic voters. That movement, I believe is going to continue. I don't believe, Mark, that those voters, those Trump voters, cuz he got roughly 77 million. The House collectively got roughly 74. So there's 3 million Trump voters out there become Republicans overnight. And my colleagues who think they came to the Republican Party I think are sadly mistaken. But what did happen is Donald Trump has made it acceptable for these voters to actually look at a Republican candidate and a Republican message. I think that bodes well for us as we go forward in the future because our policies will succeed. And as they do, we will have more voters joining our ranks and that's only going to expand our opportunities.
- [50:12]
Mark Halperin
Congressman, my one request to you, and I'm so grateful to you for being here, is when you come to New York next, let's go together to a Jack Sloshberg event and just kick the tire, kick the tires together. I'd like to, I'd like to do that and get your sense of him in person.
- [50:25]
Tom Emmer
I'll have a, I'll have a. What is my, the, the dark glasses, the hat?
- [50:31]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, yeah. Or the Groucho stuff. We can get that a gag shop.
- [50:35]
Tom Emmer
Yeah, that probably would fit better. You're right.
- [50:37]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Congressman, very grateful to you for joining after quite an eventful week for you and. And not an eventful final passage in the House where the whip operation was smooth as butter apparently, because you passed it easily. Congressman, thank you. Grateful to you.
- [50:49]
Tom Emmer
Thanks, Mark.
- [50:50]
Mark Halperin
Tom Emmer, Republican from Minnesota. Next up, Rich Lowry and Yemassi Egboali right here. That's next up. All right, everybody, some breaking news here right off the top. Beam Cyber Sale is now live for my listeners and it's their very best offer of the year. But it only is around for 48 hours. Right now my listeners get up to 50 off. And with my code Mark M A R K, you can grab dream for just 32.50. That breaks down to just $1 and 8 cents per night, the very best sleep of your Life. Go to shopbeam.com, use my code Mark. And don't miss out. This is the lowest price Dream has ever been sold anywhere and it's likely it's going to sell out pretty quickly. Dream is packed with ingredients your body actually needs to sleep. Reishi, magnesium, L thean apigee, and yes, even melatonin. But dosed all intelligently, not like the drugstore garbage that knocks you out and leaves you groggy. Go to shotbeam.com mark. Use the code mark and get up to 50% off during Beam's cyber sale. You can grab Dream right now for just $32.50. But here's the catch. Dream is only available at this price until it sells out. So seriously, think about it. How much would you pay for a truly great night of sleep? With Beam Cyber price, it's just a dollar and eight cents per night. Go to shotbeam.com mark and try beam today. Next up and joining me now, two good thinkers, writers, creators, whatever else you want to say about Rich Lowry, National Review Editor in Chief. That's a very good title. And Yemeni Agbawale, who is former chief of staff in the Biden White House Press Office, a Democratic strategist and a senior advisor for the organization Dream for America. Grateful to have you both here. Thank you for being here. Yemi, start with you. What's the story of the combination of the Tuesday election results from last week and the end of the government shutdown? How do you connect those two events and appraising where we are at this moment?
- [53:06]
Yemeni Egbowala
Yeah, I think it's a story of whiplash and a party that can't seem to have a good run for a little bit of time. I think frustrations in Washington right now, what I'm hearing from a lot of Democratic staffers and some members is about the shift from celebrating an election and really looking to the fact that I think moderates across the nation had a win for Democrats. We can talk about Mamdani all we want and how electrifying that is, but as a volume, moderates had a great win. And then in that same breath, there are moderates who are now the bane of a lot of the party's existence because of how they voted to end the government shutdown. And so I think it's looking at the flashpoint of how moderates, who I often describe as the silent majority in America and also in the Democratic Party, are shaping the narrative of how the party's gonna run. I think a lot to a greater impact than a lot of the progressives. I think it's easy to talk about the Mamdanis and the mayor of Seattle's race and things like that, but I mean, moderates really show they hold the quiet power and they can kind of shift and move the party as they want.
- [54:17]
Mark Halperin
Rich agreed that that's the main through line is that moderates did well in the election with the exception of New York City and moderates in Seattle. And moderates carried the day for the Democrats in ending the shutdown.
- [54:29]
Rich Lowry
Yeah, maybe that's part of it. Clearly they weren't going to end the shutdown prior to the elections. And Royal, their base had their base wanting to hang their leaders in effigy. So that was never going to happen. So it's clear the shutdown is going to last past the election. But I just. This was an unsustainable tactic that wasn't going to work in terms of getting the concession they wanted, the extension of Obamacare subsidies that no Republican voted for in 21 or 22 when they initially came online with the Biden administration, weren't originally part of Obamacare. So finally, you had some relative, relatively, and I'll underline the word relatively, moderate Democrats saying, okay, this is dumb. We have to give up. I do think it worked for them to the extent they did get the conversation more on health care. Pretty much the one issue on the planet Earth at the moment where Democrats still have a significant lead over Republicans. So that was good. But in terms of placating their base, yeah, they didn't infuriate them by not shutting down the government the way Schumer did in March, but they're clearly going to infuriate them at some point by reopening the government. And Schumer is bearing the brunt of, of that discontent.
- [55:39]
Mark Halperin
You see what happens next, what happens in November, December, January, as we face potentially another government shutdown. Do you anticipate another shutdown, more conflict, bipartisan compromise? What do you anticipate?
- [55:52]
Yemeni Egbowala
I definitely don't anticipate a shutdown. I think folks have learned their lesson. And to Rich's point, what was going to be the outcome? It was always going to be that somebody had to acquiesce and Democrats were the people most likely to do it. I think Schumer backed himself into a corner when he spoke very confidently early and he said, you know, Democrats are winning, Democrats are winning. And I don't think you ever say that you're winning in a shutdown, especially when people on the outside are hurting. But I do think health care is the topic and becomes the conversation. And it's great because when we started this year, we all talked about affordability. Affordability. But that was more from the how do you pay your monthlies? How do you pay your utilities? And now health care does get to be at the forefront of that conversation. And obviously the House will do Epstein and we've got Adelita Grahala back in the House. And there, there will be things on the sidelines, but I base is really, is really saying, okay, well, we did this shutdown experiment. It didn't work, but health care still has to be on the table.
- [56:48]
Mark Halperin
Rich, how do you anticipate the next couple months playing out?
- [56:52]
Rich Lowry
Well, I doubt we'll have a shutdown again just because it's a dumb tactic. It never works. It didn't work here. So they're not going to go that route again. You know, I just think they got nothing right. They got a promise of a vote in the Senate. They didn't get get a guarantee it's going to pass. Obviously. They didn't get a promise of a vote in the House. They didn't get a promise that Trump's going to sign anything. But this is clearly a vulnerability for Republicans and it has been for a very long time. They don't have a legitimate alternative, a consensus party alternative to Obamacare. And this is about 12, 15 years too late coming up with one. But I think they will, if they're smart, at least offer some ideas and put them on the floor, even knowing they're not going to pass to make the point. We have a better way. We have an alternative to deal with the spiraling costs which Obamacare was supposed to address and instead is made worse.
- [57:42]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, the system's not great. We have a ridiculous system and it's a historical accident. After World War II, employers started offering health insurance as a way to compete for workers. And some people have that. Some people have Obamacare, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans, just this patchwork. I get a sense from talking to people on two way and around the country, the public mood against the flaws in the system, particularly the fact that people have insurance, but it's not worked for them. Deductibles, co pays way too high and just out of pocket expenses too much. What's your view of whether the public mood is now at a breaking point? To the extent that Republicans will have to come up with a plan or pay a price?
- [58:26]
Rich Lowry
I think they need to come up with a plan. I'm not sure they will. I've said they had come up with a plan for a very long time and they never have. One is a very complex subject. Two, they're political downsides to whatever you want to do. And it's very hard to get a party consensus. So I'm not sure there'll be a unified plan. I think it'll be kind of stasis on this issue. And if a Democrat wins in 2028, he or she will feel likely, feel he or she has a referendum to go even further towards a government run system.
- [58:55]
Mark Halperin
But Rich, before we switch embassy, do you agree that the public mood is at kind of a boiling point that we haven't seen in a long time on this or not?
- [59:04]
Rich Lowry
I don't know whether I would say that, but it's clearly playing into the affordability concerns which is the primary issue. And this is besides winning the races, I think this is one good outcome for Democrats. It's not Trump the authoritarian. It's not no kings. It's not the White House renovation. It's not, it's none of that that are driving voters and that that represents Trump's main vulnerability. It's. It's prices.
- [59:28]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, yeah. How do you, what do you think about the public mood on this now?
- [59:32]
Yemeni Egbowala
I agree with Rich. It's not a democracy focused issue here. For a lot of the public, it is affordability. And one thing I think Democrats are gonna do a much better job of is talking about the faults in Obamacare. I don't think you have this entire shutdown experience without coming at the end of it and saying, okay, there are issues with how much we have to heavily subsidize Obamacare and for a very long time it used to be kind of this foundational piece of legislation that we all said, oh my gosh, we're so proud of it. We got so many folks on health care now. Now I think we can actually talk out loud a bit about the cracks in it before. It just felt like we can't attack Obamacare. We have to protect it because so many people want to do repeal and replace. Repeal and replace. Well, now let's have a conversation about reform. And I think the folks moving into 2028 are actually going to have to have pieces of a plan here to help Obamacare or what does health care look like past Obamacare?
- [60:27]
Mark Halperin
Right. So you approach this more from the, from the kind of competent right of the party or center of the party to say what are the flaws in it that are not working? Isn't the energy in your party now with the Sanders AOC wing that says the flaws with Obamacare is it's not single payer?
- [60:42]
Yemeni Egbowala
Yeah. I mean the energy and the loud voices is always going to be with Ernie and aoc. The solutions are never with them though. If the solutions were with them, then they would have a higher passage rate of bills in the House and the Senate.
- [60:55]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Rich, does a Republican Party plan, mythical plan that you've been rooting for for a while, is that going to be pure market oriented or do you think they'll, they'll say we need to spend more too?
- [61:09]
Rich Lowry
Might might say we need to spend more, but it'll be generally market oriented. And this is the big debate over prices, big debate over affordability in New York City. Are things not affordable because we've had too much regulation and policies that are too socialistic and we need to pull back from that or do we need to double down on that? Right. Mamdani's answer is we need to double down. And that's the left of the party, of the Democratic Party's answer across the board. And Republicans need to make the case. And I think it's a good one that no, the areas in public life where we've seen the highest price increases, higher education, although it's abated somewhat now, medical care, they're the most regulated or subsidized aspects of the economy. And if you actually let the market work, one of the great geniuses of the market is it tends to deliver better products at lower cost if you don't suppress that dynamic. So that's the broad case. I'm hoping, hoping they're going to make.
- [62:04]
Mark Halperin
Even in the week of the, of the end of the shutdown and people still talking about the election. There's an issue that's again roiling MAGA and the right, which is immigration and this question of H1B visas. President Trump did an interview with Laura Ingram that Laura was quite feisty and good and pressed him on this. And just watch you two watch a little bit about it. Then let's talk about the issue.
- [62:26]
Tom Emmer
There's never going to be a country.
- [62:27]
Rich Lowry
Like what we have right now. And does that mean Republicans have to talk about it and does that mean the H1B visa thing will not be a big priority for your administration? Because if you want to raise wages for American workers, you can't flood the country with, with tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of foreign workers.
- [62:42]
Tom Emmer
Also do have to bring in talent.
- [62:44]
Rich Lowry
When we have plenty of talented people.
- [62:46]
Mark Halperin
No you don't. No you don't.
- [62:47]
Rich Lowry
We don't have talented people. No, you don't have, you don't have.
- [62:50]
Tom Emmer
Certain talents and you have to, people have to learn.
- [62:53]
Mark Halperin
You can't take people off an unemployment, like an unemployment line and say I'm.
- [62:57]
Tom Emmer
Going to put you into a factory, we're going to make missiles or I'm going to, to.
- [63:00]
Rich Lowry
How do we ever do it before?
- [63:01]
Mark Halperin
Well, let me and I'll give you an example. This, this, this blew up between Elon Musk and Steve Bannon earlier this year. The President is constantly cross pressured by the MAGA base that doesn't want expanded immigration, even legal immigration and his business friends, particularly in hospitality and other, other parts of the economy, agriculture that need this. Is this a roiling issue that, that has significance for, for government and politics or is it just something for elites to talk about on cable a little more the latter.
- [63:32]
Rich Lowry
But look this, Trump's always been this way, very, very against illegal immigration and supposedly an immigration restrictionist with regard to legal immigration as well. But all during the campaign first term he'd go out there and say, yeah, I want to shut the door to people coming illegally from Mexico and elsewhere, but I want a big beautiful door to let, excuse me, let all these other talented people in. And then Steve Miller would have to come out and say no, no, that's not what he meant and pull him back. So this is just a constant tension within Trump's thought himself and within MAGA as well. This is not a top tier issue, but it's one that a lot of mega influencers like Laura Ingraham care a lot about. And I think the way Square the Circle H1B program, I think, is a disgrace. It's been widely abused, should be seriously reformed or eliminated at the same time. Yes, if you want. If they're geniuses who want to come here, yes, we want those people.
- [64:27]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Yemen. So your party came out of the last election with the weight of the Biden Harris failure on immigration, even though many people told the president throughout his term, your policies, bad policy, bad politics. He only changed it at the very end. I think whatever President Trump's motivation is, these ICE raids and immigration efforts in some parts of the country have your party back, seeming to be defending, being against closing down the border. Maybe that's not the actual position, but how did Democrats approach immigration in 26 and 28 to avoid the same political problems that you had during the four years of Biden Harris?
- [65:08]
Yemeni Egbowala
I think. I think we talk about immigration as we do have an immigration problem, full stop. I don't think anybody running to 2026, 2028 is going to speak about immigration with this bag over their head where we pretend that there's not a real issue here. There is, I think where the two roads diverge between Republicans and Democrats is how you handle comprehensive immigration reform in a way that is empathetic and compassionate. I think that Trump could have really won over Democrats on immigration reform and if people didn't have to see it so starkly in places. I think people want government to work, but they don't always wanna see the mechanisms that make it work. And when you're pulling people off the street, when you're getting them from their hearings that they're going to, mandated by the court, they're following the rules in the system, then some people wonder, okay, if folks are here and we've given them a process and they're doing the process and we're still kicking them out, that. And is it really just the circle of criminals? And I also want to speak to the H1B visas, because I think Trump's going to run into some issue with that if he does any kind of pushback on the HB1 visas and falls into the Laura Ingram camp. So I want to remind people, Silicon Valley are the folks that benefit the most from that. And some of Trump's biggest supporters are these tech CEOs. Jensen Huang Nvidia send many a visit to the White House. He helped pay for that ballroom. Nvidia and those semiconductors, a lot of them are made by folks who are on those visas. So it is going to be. That's a harder conversation to have because you're coming up against the Peter Thiel's. A lot of the folks that are out there in Silicon Valley that do get a lot of their support from that.
- [66:47]
Mark Halperin
So, yeah, no, well said.
- [66:49]
Yemeni Egbowala
It's just tricky all around.
- [66:50]
Mark Halperin
Well said. So tricky issue all around. And if it persists, which it will into, into 27 and 28, it will be a tricky issue for JD Vance, one of many if he wants to run for president. We've seen him in the last few weeks navigate with Tucker Carlson, his friend. We've seen him navigate a range of issues. My current obsession with J.D. vance, though, is something that's not about policy, it's not about politics or campaigning. It's about his personality. Because I have people as judgment I trust who say he's the most honest, straightforward, natural guy in public life life. And then I have people who say he's a phony. And I've heard that not from his fellow politicians, who of course aren't reluctant to call other politicians phony, but from a lot of donors, a lot of intellectuals. And I heard it on on two way this week from a guy named Ray Marcano, a member of the two way community. He's a longtime journalist and columnist. Here's what Ray said. He lives in Ohio, where Vance is from. Here's what Ray said on 2way about JD Vance.
- [67:51]
Tom Emmer
So, you know, I'm here in Ohio. I'm confused by this J.D. vance thing.
- [67:55]
Mark Halperin
Thing.
- [67:55]
Tom Emmer
I know that he speaks real well. I know that he looks great in a suit. I know his hair is real coiffed, unlike mine. I mean, I need a haircut, that's for damn sure. I don't get why people inside the Beltway love the guy. Now, maybe he is the epitome of a politician, but I can tell you here among the working class people in Ohio, when I ask folks, even Republicans, what do you think of J.D. vance? One word tends to come out more than other. Phony.
- [68:25]
Mark Halperin
Yeah.
- [68:26]
Tom Emmer
He's not us.
- [68:28]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Ooh, he's too polished. Yeah.
- [68:32]
Tom Emmer
So any, anytime I'm on here and I Hear people, oh, J.D. vance. Oh, he's so, you know, he's so this, he's so that. And he's a front runner for 2028. It's early.
- [68:40]
Mark Halperin
Anything could happen.
- [68:41]
Tom Emmer
I just don't see it.
- [68:43]
Mark Halperin
So you two are amongst the first to get to used to Mark Halperin's new mode of behavior. I don't say to people, how are you? I say, is J.D. vance a phony? Because I can't figure out how smart People and people like you two who watch politicians and people in public life, I can't figure out the diversity of opinion. So, Yemen, see you first. Do you think he's a phony? And why are some people saying yes and some people saying no with such certainty?
- [69:09]
Yemeni Egbowala
Well, polished is an interesting word for J.D. vance. I guess maybe in comparison to Trumpy's Polish, he's not my idea of what a polished politician is. I think J.D. vance, depending on his audience, and I watched his full T U P S A TPUSA talk that he did, and it's interesting to see the way that he navigates maybe younger white Christian men that are not as sympathetic to the relationship that he has with his wife Usha, and the way that he talks about faith and politics there and how he does it in different audiences. I mean, I don't know. I was a part of the moderate Dems that, like, really read that hillbilly book, and I thought, this guy's got it. And I was sitting in Senator Mark Warner's office and we all had copies and we thought, wow, this is really. We can really find some center, middle ground on this. And now here he is today.
- [70:04]
Mark Halperin
So, yeah, really interesting. But you didn't answer either of my questions, which I'm going to ask you again before Rich goes number one. Do you. Do you think he's a phony? You can. You can say you don't want to answer.
- [70:15]
Yemeni Egbowala
I think JD Vance is who he is, whoever you need him to be.
- [70:18]
Mark Halperin
And so that sounds like one of.
- [70:20]
Yemeni Egbowala
The parts I saw was authentic or.
- [70:22]
Mark Halperin
Not, I don't know. And then second, I'm confident I'm right about this. People of good faith and just curious, they're not. They're not partisans in weighing in. Some say he is, and some say he's not. What is it about him that causes some people to feel, of course he's a phony, and other people to say, oh, my God, he's so genuine. He's. He's the opposite. What is it? What. What's the. What is it there? Do you have any sense?
- [70:45]
Yemeni Egbowala
I haven't met anybody who finds him genuine. So if Rich finds him genuine, I would actually love that.
- [70:51]
Mark Halperin
Rich, have you spent a lot of time with him?
- [70:53]
Rich Lowry
A fair amount.
- [70:54]
Mark Halperin
All right. Do you think he's a phony?
- [70:56]
Rich Lowry
No. In this sense, I. I think that the populist conversion was totally sincere. It happened before he was running for office. I saw it in real time. It was at a time when there wasn't anything, obviously, to be Gained from it. And he was very passionate about it. Very passionate. Now, look, he's a working politician and an ambitious guy. So what he's done to get where he has gone, you know, did he really think Marjorie Taylor Greene was the greatest thing when she was campaigning with him in that Iowa Ohio Senate primary? Or did he know that that's where the energy of the party was? That's what he needed to do to at that time, help get Trump's endorsement? Yes. You know, but that's all politicians are that way. And, Mark, on this personality issue, I've just been struck when I'm with. With Republican donors who are not sympathetic with the party's populist turn at all. And they've been in a law firm office or whatever it is, in a private session with JD Vance, they all come away impressed and liking him. So at that point, oh, my God.
- [71:55]
Mark Halperin
Rich, I gotta stop you, because I thought you were going to say they all come away thinking he's a phony. Because that's so funny. And this just, again, reinforces my point. I've talked to people with that exact thing. Small group, law firm, at the vice president's residence, wherever it is. In my experience, a very high percentage of those people come out saying he's a phony. You're saying just the opposite.
- [72:16]
Rich Lowry
Yeah, in my experience. And these are people not necessarily sympathetic to his kind.
- [72:20]
Mark Halperin
100.
- [72:21]
Rich Lowry
Yeah, they like him and oppressed by him. But I would say on the personality, is he gonna be able to pull off what Trump has no right, no one will be able to do what he's done? You know, the billionaire whose appeals to that guy who says, in Ohio, we all think Trump, JD Is a phony. Right. How does Trump pull that off? How does Trump say two different things and one answer to a question and get both sides saying, he's with us, you know, and hearing the right thing? Has he had this just iron grip on the party that's driven fundamentally by his Persona? We're not gonna see that again. And J.D. vance isn't gonna be able to do that 100%.
- [72:56]
Yemeni Egbowala
Look, you know what? Rich is right. I wanna harness whatever that magic is that Trump has where he can just go on. And to me, I think he said nothing at all. And then there's an entire base that's like. That was inspiring. I don't think a jdv, I don't think a Marco Rubio. I certainly don't think a Marco Rubio can do that. I think the closest person that could possibly do that is a J.D.
- [73:20]
Mark Halperin
Yeah.
- [73:21]
Rich Lowry
The problem J.D. has is, is he's too articulate.
- [73:24]
Mark Halperin
Right.
- [73:24]
Rich Lowry
He's glib and he's young and he's smart. And with working class voters, there's going to be a little suspicion around that in the way that there hasn't been around Trump.
- [73:33]
Tom Emmer
Yeah.
- [73:33]
Mark Halperin
Everybody, just to reinforce the point you made, everybody in politics has to do phony stuff. That just the reality of the nature of the job. This is more profound. I'll just say I don't think he's a phony. I get the conversion. I get, you know, he's done some things even today that politicians do, but I don't find him to be profoundly phony. And yet again from, from some voters, I'm confident if we did focus groups in 50 states with Republicans, we find a lot of people saying he's a phony because I hear it from voters, as my friend Ray does, but then again, also elites, some people now view him that's like the prism, like The George Bush, H.W. bush wimp factor. They're like, he'll never win because he's a phony. We don't want to nominate him because unlike Glenn Youngkin or Marco, he's not a phony. That's what I hear. And I find it confusing because I don't remember in my career such polar views of one person. Heartfelt, almost like dispositive. This is why he's great. He's not a phony. But also this is why he's doomed because he is a phony. I find it to be a puzzle, a mystery.
- [74:41]
Yemeni Egbowala
You know, he has, he has an advantage over somebody like Glenn Youngkin, who I think was great for the governor of Virginia. He's not boring. And the problem with folks like Glenn Youngkin is they would be great. But we just moved past a point where you do have to kind of lean in a bit to the personality, like J.D. vance doing his Halloween costume as the meme that Dems have been circulating online about him. It was good, it was smart, it was, it's, it's very Trump esque and.
- [75:07]
Mark Halperin
It'S either totally real or maybe it's totally phony. I don't know which one or the other. Very, very grateful to you both. And I hope you'll come back like every few weeks to talk about whether J.D. vance is a phony as we collect more data points. But super, super grateful to you both, Yemassi and Rich. Thank you.
- [75:23]
Tom Emmer
Thanks, Mark.
- [75:23]
Yemeni Egbowala
Thank you.
- [75:24]
Mark Halperin
All right, that does it for today's episode. Very grateful to you all for being here. We're going to be back on Tuesday of next week week with a brand new episode. As always, we want you to spread the word, get more Nexters in the house. Subscribe to NextUp on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts so you can help other people know what's coming next up.