Next Up with Mark Halperin

Episode: The J.D. Vance "Phony" Debate Shaking Up 2028, and Who Lost the Shutdown (with GOP Whip Tom Emmer)
Date: November 13, 2025

Overview

This episode explores two major themes:

1. The aftermath of the historic 43-day U.S. government shutdown and the evolving debate over health care, featuring GOP House Whip Tom Emmer.
2. The emerging 2028 Presidential field, focusing on a heated discussion about whether Senator J.D. Vance is a "phony"—a narrative gaining traction in political circles and among voters.

In addition, the panel (Rich Lowry, Yemeni Egbowala) dissects election results, moderates’ influence, the state of health care policy, party divides on immigration, and what might define the political battles leading into the late 2020s.

Mark Halperin’s Reported Monologue: State of the Nation

(00:00–24:54)

• Polarization and Distrust in Institutions

  • Halperin describes a national malaise, rooted in decades-long economic decline and cratering public confidence in institutions—from government to health care to big technology.
  • Notable quote:

    “Economic decline, and distrust in institutions… the rise of Donald Trump directly connected.”
    (06:00–08:00)

  • Touches on alienation among young Americans and how increased balkanization and technology feeds division.

• Technology and AI’s Crossroads

  • Considers AI as both a threat (amplifying power of entrenched elites, risking further polarization) and a possible tool for restoring prosperity and institutional trust:

    “Is [AI] going to empower the people or is it going to empower the powerful?”
    (11:00)

  • Warns that if average citizens do not master AI, the wealthy and institutions will further consolidate power.

• Solutions and Warnings

  • Urges individuals to exercise agency—make consumer choices, embrace alternatives to big tech, and engage with AI to reclaim power.

• Highlight on Healthcare and Government

  • Decries the status quo in health care (“cost too much, do too little… catastrophic plan at best”), and stresses that neither the government nor private industry will fix it without real public pressure.
  • On the recent shutdown:

    “People are not going to have faith in government to do what’s right if the government had its longest shutdown of all time.”
    (17:30)

Interview: Congressman Tom Emmer—Shutdown, Health Care, Epstein, and the 2026 Landscape

(24:55–50:49)

The Shutdown: Why and How It Ended

[25:05–27:32]

• Duration: 43 days, the longest in U.S. history.
• Emmer's View: Eight Senate Democrats "finally growing the spine" broke with party leadership, ending the impasse.
• Notable quote:

  “Nobody wins in a shutdown—the American people are the ones that feel it the most.”
  (25:16)

• Sequence: Escalating public pain (unpaid air traffic controllers, SNAP, WIC, Head Start cutoffs) motivated action.

Health Care: GOP Position and the Next Steps

[27:32–32:55]

• Top three constituent complaints:
  1. Insurance too expensive (premiums, deductibles, copays all high)
  2. Restricted access to providers
  3. System is "a mess," Democrats blamed for ACA
• Emmer's diagnosis:
  • The Affordable Care Act is labeled “the Unaffordable Care Act,” blamed for doubling costs since passage.
  • Argues Democrats won the media war, but real reform is overdue and Republicans are positioned as the party of reform.

  “The only people that are gonna be able to fix it are Donald Trump and Republicans.”
  (28:33)

• No specific unified GOP plan yet; discussions to center on promoting choice, competition, and transparency.

Epstein Documents Discharge Petition

[32:55–35:24]

• House to vote (but Emmer himself won’t support it: "I don’t vote for discharge petitions").
• Emmer sees Democratic motives as partisan ("They're interested in going after Donald Trump"), stresses majority of documents already public.

Economy: Status, Costs, and Outlook

[36:01–39:08]

• Emmer touts GOP record: permanent tax policy, middle class tax cuts, largest spending reduction, expects a “looming economic boom.”
• On household costs: “Healthcare is the worst. It’s amazing how the expenses continue to go up while nothing else does in our life.” (37:55)
• On groceries: “I’d love to see the price of beef come down.” Notes fuel and food prices have dropped under Trump.

2026 House Races and Political Landscape

[40:23–50:36]

• Discusses the narrowing of genuinely competitive House seats (now closer to 45–55, down from 80–85 a decade ago).
• Trump’s appeal is drawing new voting blocs: “Donald Trump has made it acceptable for these voters to actually look at a Republican candidate and a Republican message.” (48:37)
• On NY-12 and celebrity candidates: Critiques JFK’s grandson Jack Schlossberg for being style without substance—"He’d fit better at Saturday Night Live." (43:47)
• Predicts the House will remain closely divided—“within a handful of seats either way.” (48:11)

Panel: Rich Lowry & Yemeni Egbowala – Moderates, Healthcare Rage, GOP/Dem Divides, and Is J.D. Vance a Phony?

(53:06–75:22)

The Shutdown & Democrats: Moderates in Focus

[53:06–55:39]

• Egbowala:

  “Moderates really show they hold the quiet power and they can kind of shift and move the party as they want.”

• Lowry:
  Shutdown forced Dem moderates’ hand—“This was an unsustainable tactic that wasn’t going to work.”
  Their partial victory was raising the salience of health care, where Dems still lead.

Prospects for Health Care Reform

[55:51–62:03]

• Consensus: No further shutdown seen as likely; health care will dominate debate.
• Lowry:
  • GOP lacks a credible consensus Obamacare alternative, urges even a messaging bill:

    “They don’t have a legitimate alternative, a consensus party alternative to Obamacare. This is about 12, 15 years too late coming up with one.” (57:42)

• Egbowala:
  • Predicts Dems will “talk about the faults in Obamacare out loud,” shifting from just defending it to emphasizing the need for reform.

On the Public Mood: Breaking Point Over Health Care

[58:55–62:03]

• Lowry:

  “It’s clearly playing into the affordability concerns which is the primary issue.”

• General frustration with high out-of-pocket costs, deductibles, and the mishmash of coverage types.

Immigration & H1B Debate in the New MAGA Era

[62:03–66:49]

• Discusses Trump’s conflicting rhetoric on skilled immigration (H1B).
• Notable moment from Rich Lowry:

  “H1B program, I think, is a disgrace. It’s been widely abused… but, yes, if there are geniuses who want to come here, yes, we want those people.” (64:26)

• Panel notes ongoing tension between MAGA base and business interests in GOP; Egbowala adds that Dems must own the immigration problem and find a “compassionate” reform.

The J.D. Vance "Phony" Debate

(66:50–75:22)

• Introduction:

  • Mark Halperin presents his obsession with J.D. Vance’s reputation: is he authentic or a phony?
  • Ray Marcano (Ohio journalist) offers this from the ground:

    “One word tends to come out more than others: phony. He’s not us. He’s too polished.” (68:25)

• Panelists’ Takes:

  • Egbowala:
    • Sees Vance as a chameleon, “whoever you need him to be.” (70:14)
    • Initially viewed as authentic by moderate Dems reading Hillbilly Elegy; now, less so.
  • Lowry:
    • Defends Vance’s sincerity in his populist conversion, seen before electoral ambitions.
    • “He’s a working politician and ambitious guy,” so sometimes must “do what you need to do” (such as appearing with Marjorie Taylor Greene for Trump’s endorsement).
    • Notes that, to his surprise, many skeptical GOP donors find Vance likable and authentic in small group settings.

• The Big Question:

  • Why are opinions so polarized?
    • Some see deep authenticity; others see a core falseness (“profoundly phony”).
    • Halperin:

      “I don’t remember in my career such polar views of one person.” (74:41)

    • Panel unsure; consensus is that the Vance debate will shape the coming 2028 campaign.

• Trump vs. Vance on Authenticity:

  • Rich Lowry concludes:

    “The problem J.D. has is he’s too articulate. He’s glib and he’s young and he’s smart. And with working class voters, there’s going to be a little suspicion around that in a way there hasn’t been about Trump.” (73:21)

  • Egbowala: “He’s not boring… but you have to lean in to the personality—a la Trump.”

Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• On Institutional Decline:

  “We can’t function as a society if everybody’s orientation or so many people’s orientations is negative towards our institutions.”
  (23:45, Mark Halperin)

• Emmer on the Shutdown:

  “Nobody wins in a shutdown—the American people are the ones that feel it the most.”
  (25:16, Tom Emmer)

• On J.D. Vance:

  “When I ask folks, even Republicans, what do you think of J.D. Vance? One word tends to come out more than others: phony. He’s not us.”
  (68:25, Ray Marcano, via Halperin)

• Lowry on Vance's Conversion:

  “The populist conversion was totally sincere… It happened before he was running for office.”
  (70:55, Rich Lowry)

• On MAGA Voters:

  “Donald Trump has made it acceptable for these voters to actually look at a Republican candidate and a Republican message.”
  (49:20, Tom Emmer)

Key Takeaways

• Shutdown Resolution: Prompted by constituent pain, ended by Senate Democrats breaking with leadership; nobody really “won.”
• Health Care as a Flashpoint: Costs, deductibles, and access are top voter complaints; both parties now feel pressured for substantive reform, not just messaging.
• 2026 House & Electoral Landscape: Shrinking field of true swing districts; Trump’s unique coalition presents both opportunity and challenge for GOP prospects.
• J.D. Vance’s Polarization: The authenticity (“phony”) debate underscores deep divides in how political insiders and voters interpret candidate personas, signaling the shape of 2028’s contests.
• Moderates’ Moment: Moderate Democrats drove events on shutdown and in elections—“quiet power” outmaneuvered louder ideological extremes.
• AI’s Societal Role: Seen by Halperin as the variable that could either deepen the current malaise or help restore trust and prosperity—depending on public engagement.
• Immigration Stays Fraught: Tension between business needs and populist resistance will continue to split both parties.

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Mark Halperin Monologue: 00:00–24:54
• Tom Emmer Interview: 24:55–50:49
  • Shutdown: 25:05–27:32
  • Health Care: 27:32–32:55
  • Epstein Documents: 32:55–35:24
  • Economy/Personal Costs: 36:01–39:08
  • House Elections: 40:23–50:36
• Panel Segment (Lowry & Egbowala): 53:06–75:22
  • Moderates & Shutdown: 53:06–55:39
  • Health Care Reform/Public Mood: 55:51–62:03
  • Immigration & H1B Debate: 62:03–66:49
  • J.D. Vance "Phony" Debate: 66:50–75:22

Tone and Style

The tone throughout is conversational but hard-hitting—Halperin’s tough, relentlessly curious, and brings a seasoned political reporter’s skepticism. Emmer is partisan and punchy but occasionally reflective; Lowry is analytical; Egbowala is pragmatic and focused on shifting intra-party dynamics. The J.D. Vance segment—marked by its “is he a phony?” refrain—injects humor and pathos.

For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode provides a sharp window into how the battles over trust, health care, economic anxiety, and political authenticity are likely to shape the years ahead—and why even the Democratic and Republican insiders can’t agree on who is for real.