The New Trends Reshaping America’s Voters

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Next Up with Mark Halperin

Episode: The New Trends Reshaping America’s Voters

Date: May 19, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin
Featured Guests: Cabot Phillips (Daily Wire), Rob O’Neill (Operator Podcast), Hunter Biden (via preview of a Candace Owens interview)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the evolving dynamics among American voters, especially in urban centers, and examines how new political trends, campaigns, media strategies, and international conflicts are intersecting to reshape the political landscape. Host Mark Halperin explores governance failures in major American cities, the hunger for change, the impact of viral campaigns, shifting voter blocs, the fallout from high-profile political deaths, as well as the implications of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.
Key guests include Cabot Phillips discussing voter trends and youth challenges post-Charlie Kirk, and Rob O’Neill sharing unique military and policy insights. The episode also teases the controversial Candace Owens–Hunter Biden interview.

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Key Sections & Discussion Points

1. The Failure of American Cities & the Hunger for Change

(00:52–13:48)

Mark Halperin’s Monologue

• Urban America’s well-being is pivotal: over 75% of Americans live in cities/metropolitan areas.
• Three primary failures identified:
  1. Chronic governance failures in major cities.
  2. Predominant Democratic control over decades, applying liberal policies.
  3. Republican failure to present compelling alternatives or win urban elections.
• Case Study: Spencer Pratt’s Republican mayoral run in Los Angeles:
  • Status quo deemed “ridiculous” by disillusioned liberals and past Democrats.
  • Media and campaign strategy: viral, clever, AI-generated ads create “permission structures” letting Democrats feel secure defecting to a Republican.
  • Example ad: Pilates moms secretly admitting they’ll vote for Spencer Pratt.
    “The tagline ‘you are not alone’ is meant to give that permission structure...” – Mark Halperin (10:19).
• Profound lesson: There is an unmet, widespread hunger for change in cities plagued by decades of one-party rule.
  • “If America is to be great, America must have great cities. And the only way to have great cities is to try something different.” – Mark Halperin (13:13).
• Comparison with Daniel Laurie, San Francisco’s centrist Democrat mayor, who boosted city approval through competency and solving tangible problems, yielding a 74% approval rating.

Notable Quote

“With few exceptions, Democrats have run our major cities … Republicans have done a horrible job presenting alternatives … The lesson … is about the hunger in our cities for change.”
— Mark Halperin (04:05–05:58)

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2. Crossover Trends & Permission Structures in Urban Campaigns

(08:21–13:48)

• Analysis of viral campaign strategies—especially AI-generated, community-centric ads—shifting how voters engage and defect from party lines.
• Comparison: Pratt’s campaign in LA to Laurie’s in SF, and the mention of successful Republican mayors like Giuliani and Bloomberg in New York.
• Emphasis on competency over ideology, and the importance of responding to practical city concerns (crime, homelessness, bureaucracy).
• Republican market failure metaphor:
  “People who live there love hot dogs. … And the only thing they can buy in their city is horrible, expensive hot dogs. … Most Republicans haven’t figured out how to take over the hot dog market.” – Mark Halperin (15:35)

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3. Voter Trends, Youth Disengagement, & The Post-Kirk Era (With Cabot Phillips)

(20:43–35:47)

Living in the City vs. Country

• Cabot Phillips recounts moving out of Nashville for safety and quality-of-life reasons:
  “We had our cars getting broken into constantly. Our house got paintballed ... saw a guy bleeding out on the sidewalk.” – Cabot Phillips (22:26)

How Foreign Conflict Resonates Locally

• Middle America discusses Iran conflict only when it hits wallets (e.g., gas prices).
• MAGA view: still trusting “the process” with Trump, but increasingly wary as economic pain drags on.
• Critical messaging challenge: “That message works when it’s a two, three week conflict … it doesn’t work when it starts to drag out.” – Cabot Phillips (26:39)
• Growing skepticism about continuous wars without results.

Shifting Youth, Independent, and Minority Voters

• Polls show erosion in support for Trump among young men, independents, and Hispanic voters.
• Notably, Generation Z is not a monolith; 18–22 year-olds not shifting as heavily to Democrats as older peers (22–29).
• Alarm at generic ballot trends favoring Democrats as a real warning sign.

The Void after Charlie Kirk

• Charlie Kirk’s unique ability: coalition-building on the right, spiritual and economic motivation for young men.
• His assassination led to a leadership vacuum and increased intra-GOP strife:

  “I think it’s impossible to overstate the impact that his murder has had … he did a fantastic job of holding together all of these different factions within the GOP.” – Cabot Phillips (32:07)

• Rising despair and nihilism among young white men, fueling anti-semitic currents.
• “There is this hopelessness … and I think that is one reason why you see this enormous rise in anti-Semitic mentalities among that group.” – Cabot Phillips (35:47)

Filling the Gap: Who Speaks to Young Men Now?

• J.D. Vance elevated as a rare example: “He does a great job of empathizing [with young men] without coddling them.” – Cabot Phillips (37:37)
• Debate about Vance’s authenticity and whether public perception will hold if he becomes a frontrunner.

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4. The Candace Owens–Hunter Biden Interview Preview

(43:29–46:47)

Shocking Pairing

• Candace Owens interviews Hunter Biden – a “match made in hell” (Mark Halperin 46:47), blending right and left populist/conspiratorial grievances.
• Shared antipathy to D.C. elites and status quo:

  “It’s not left or right. The DC elite of the left, they crushed my dad because he was never part of that club. He was never part of the Epstein class.” – Hunter Biden (45:42)

• Caution from Halperin: Rather than spectacle, see it as a sign of growing distrust in institutions and the elite from both extremes—trend could be dangerous if left unaddressed.

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5. U.S.-Iran War & Security Analysis (With Rob O’Neill)

(51:22–71:00)

Military Media Critique & Realities of Conflict

• The media often misreads military realities:
  “Right now, they are saying they’re up to negotiations and Pakistan is mediating without considering their entire military is wiped out … this is just a beat down until we get every single dotted I and crossed T that we want.” – Rob O’Neill (52:51)
• Iran’s ability to retaliate is minimal: chain of command is destroyed, infrastructure gone.
• “For some reason, they’re acting like there’s a red carpet and a white tablecloth where people are negotiating. They’re getting beat down.” – Rob O’Neill (56:30)
• Possibility of U.S. and allied “boots on the ground” refuted; any on-ground presence is for soft coups and infrastructure, not occupation.

Special Operations & Israeli Intelligence

• U.S. and Israeli capabilities in special ops are “extraordinary.”
  “Their human intelligence is the best on the planet.” – Rob O’Neill on Mossad (62:42)
• Israeli special operators especially noted for seriousness and effectiveness.

Weapons Stockpile & Risks

• Hard for the public to assess the true U.S. munitions status — “verify everything” ethos.
• O’Neill is not concerned:
  “The United States is exactly where it wants to be. I think the United States has deterrence and the flexibility behind it.” (65:38)

NATO & Defense Policy

• O’Neill advocates shifting U.S. focus from Europe to the Western Hemisphere (e.g., Venezuela, Africa) and preparing for an AI and drone-centric future.
• Praises Secretary of Defense Pete Hexaf:
  “We really need a mid-level officer with combat experience … and Pete did fill all those [requirements] … I think Pete right now is knocking out of the park.” (69:03)

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On urban policy & permission to defect:
  “How do you create a permission structure for a liberal Democrat … to say it’s okay to vote for a Republican? … The tagline ‘you are not alone’ is meant to give that permission structure.” – Mark Halperin (08:21 & 10:19)

• On pragmatic urban leadership:
  “If America is to be great, America must have great cities.” – Mark Halperin (13:13)

• On youth disillusionment:
  “There is this hopelessness. … I think the solution is to say, yeah, there are some real problems you guys are facing.” – Cabot Phillips (34:56)

• On populist-conspiratorial convergence:
  “It’s not left or right. The DC elite of the left, they crushed my dad because he was never part of that club.” – Hunter Biden (45:42)

• On the changing face of war and politics:
  "Cyber warfare, I think is probably the biggest one just based on the way AI is rewriting code … the AI and then as far as human on human, I think it’s going to be the drone warfare." – Rob O’Neill (67:56)

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Section Timestamps

• Urban Transformation & City Politics: 00:52–13:48
• Viral Campaigns & Permission Structures: 08:21–13:48
• Youth Trends, Voter Shifts, Post-Kirk: 20:43–39:54
• Candace Owens–Hunter Biden Preview & Analysis: 43:29–46:47
• Rob O’Neill on U.S.-Iran Conflict & Defense: 51:22–71:00

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Takeaways

• Voters in cities are hungry for real change, not just party labels.
• Campaigns now thrive on creating a safe “permission structure” for defection, especially using AI and viral media.
• The post-Kirk conservative movement suffers from coalition breakdown and rising nihilism among young men.
• Deep distrust of elites and conspiratorial thinking now unites parts of both the populist right and left.
• U.S. military advantage is robust, but future conflicts will be shaped by drones, AI, and information warfare.
• Competence, not ideology, will determine which candidates can win the new urban battles.

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Transcript

[Cabot Phillips]

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[Mark Halperin]

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[Cabot Phillips]

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[Mathnasium Advertiser]

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[Mark Halperin]

Hey everybody. Welcome IN this is NextUp. I'm Mark Kalperin, your host here. I'm the editor in chief of Live Interactive video platform 2way and your guide to everything. Next up. Really happy to have you here. Great show. Featured Guests Cabot Phillips Cabot Phillips is a bright young man, senior editor at the Daily Wire. He hosts their program Wired In Live. And he and I are going to talk about Iran, the midterms and the vacuum created by the loss of Charlie Kirk, a topic we talk about a lot here, but super important. And then Rob o' Neill will be here. He's a former SEAL Team six operator. He's the man who's credited with killing Osama bin Laden. We're going to chalk talk a little bit on the conflict with Iran and what the president's options there are. Looking forward to talking to them both and sharing those conversations. But before that, my reported monologue on the failure of American cities over the last 40 or 50 years. You know how many people in America live in cities or the metro areas of cities? Like more than 75%. We, we talk a lot about the heartland and about rural areas. And I'm not diminishing those super important places like lovely places, great people. But three quarters of us basically are relying on urban areas for where we make our living, how we spend our time, our recreation time, educating our kids, everything we do. And our cities are a mess. Our cities are a mess. And my view of this is, as an American, as someone who has a voice on National Town Square is I'm not interested in complaining about it anymore. I'm interested in solving it. I'm interested in making sure that kids in particular who grow up in cities, but also adults who live there, have the opportunity to have great lives. Okay? And. And three things are true about our cities, okay? They are a failure. Governance is a failure in our cities, number one. Number two, with few exceptions, Democrats have run our major cities. And with few exceptions, those Democrats have governed those cities along with their city councils, with liberal policies, okay? For decades. And three, Republicans have done a horrible job presenting alternatives to governance and winning elections, again, for mayor and for city councils to change things, to make things better. As much as I hear Republicans complain for decades about how poorly Democrats do running cities, they haven't really stepped up, with few exceptions, Rudy Giuliani, Michael Bloomberg in New York, for instance, to govern in a different way, to present the alternative, an alternative that, that voters, parents especially, are hungering for. So again, I'm not interested in complaining. I'm interested in fixing Spencer Pratt. Running for mayor of Los Angeles, one of our most troubled cities, is getting a lot of attention, a lot of conversation around him because a lot of his media is great, a lot of his videos and videos made supporting him are fantastic. So the press talks about it. But he's also getting a lot of attention in Los Angeles. And it's not scientific. They've very limited polling data here. But what, what I find is a lot of my liberal friends in, in Los Angeles are going to support Spencer Pratt, including many have never voted for a Republican for anything, because the status quo is ridiculous, the governance of that city is ridiculous. And you've got the special case of the fires and the governance around the fires. Not every city is dealing with that. But all the other issues about the quality of the schools, the quality of life, the homelessness, the crime, all that is there. The most profound lesson that people are learning so far about Spencer Pratt's campaign to try to win this race on June 2nd, a couple weeks away, is make great videos. That's the lesson people are learning. And that's true. Saw that here in New York City, Mondami made great videos. Making great videos is really important in this age if you're going to win elections or compete. But I think there's a more profound lesson. And in every election below the presidential level, you can learn stuff about the location, where it's being taking place in the state, in the city, in the congressional district. But if you look hard enough and you look the right way, you can also learn stuff about America and what I think the important thing to learn about what's going on in America right now, the right lesson to learn, the profound lesson to learn about the attention that Spencer Pratt is getting is about the hunger in our cities for change. A hunger that has existed for the same decades of failed liberal governance in our cities, but a hunger that not has been met. And what Spencer Pratt has done is to not sit around and accept failure, is to not say, well, I'm a Republican and I've got different ideas about how to fix this city so I can't win, so I'm not going to run for mayor, but to actually run now, on the pressing issues facing Los Angeles, the same issues facing all our big cities, or almost all our big cities, dispenser Pratt have a lot of specific ideas. Does he have a record of governance? No. But on school safety, economics, economic opportunity, homelessness, he's saying the status quo is not acceptable. And that's what Donald Trump did to get elected in 2016 and again in 2024. He said the status quo is not acceptable to you. So if you want to try something different, try me. Okay. Now, I've been outspoken and saying, I think Spencer Pratt has a pretty good chance to win. In fact, sometimes I've gone further and said, I think he's going to win. Is a tall order to win in a Democratic city. Any Republican and the person he's running against, amongst others, the incumbent, Karen Bass, whether you think she's done a good job or not, many people do not. She's the Democratic incumbent in a Democratic city, and it's going to be hard to beat her. Donald Trump has not made it easier for Republicans right now, I think, to win mayoral races. Because. Because when Donald Trump talks about cities, he sees the same problems I do. He seems the same problem. A lot of people in our big cities see all the areas of decline and problems. What's the biggest thing Donald Trump's done? I say the biggest, the most visible thing Donald Trump's done connected to cities in this term, it's on immigration. It's sending ICE and border, border protection into big cities, most prominently, first Los Angeles and then Minneapolis St. Paul. That has turned the conflict over what to do about our cities from a discussion of education and economics and homelessness into a discussion of ICE and immigration issues. Not good. Not good. Because it's taken the conversation away from where it needs to be. Not that immigration and sanctuary cities, not that that's not an important issue. It is, but it's one of many and it's one where Donald Trump was previously trusted and the polls make clear, not trusted much anymore. Spencer Pratt is not saying the specifics, but what he's saying is, if you don't like the way Los Angeles is now, try something different. Donald Trump had a line that he used to. When he was trying to court Black voters in 2016. He would say, what the hell do you have to lose, right?

[Rob O'Neill]

You can.

[Mark Halperin]

You can vote for Hillary Clinton and get more of the same, or you can try something different. And that's what Spencer Pratt's doing. And the challenge that he has, amongst others, is what people in politics call permission structure. How do you create a permission structure for a liberal Democrat, which is most of the voters in this election? How do you present a way for them to say, it's okay to vote for a Republican, it's okay to not vote for Karen Bass, it's okay to cast the ballot in a way that would say, let's. Let's go for change. Amongst the many very clever ads that the Pratt campaign or their supporters have made is one that's geared exactly towards this issue of permission. How do you give them permission, in their minds and in their communities, to vote for a Republican? A Republican who up until now was most famous for being on a reality show? And the way you do that is to demonstrate that it's safe to do it. That's why this. This ad is so brilliant. Is another one of the many ads generated by AI which is a whole other lesson about this campaign. This is about a bunch of. I don't know if it's Pilates or yoga, but a bunch of moms who secretly all are going to vote for Spencer Pratt and share it. Play S2, please.

[Rob O'Neill]

All right, class, great job today.

[Mark Halperin]

Hey, that's Pilates. I have to tell you something.

[Rob O'Neill]

Promise you won't get mad.

[Mark Halperin]

I'm voting for Spencer Pratt. Get mad. I'm voting for Spencer Pratt, too.

[Rob O'Neill]

Did someone mention Spencer Pratt? Um, no. No.

[Mark Halperin]

Oh, because I'm actually voting for him. Oh, so are we.

[Rob O'Neill]

I just don't know if we can

[Mark Halperin]

sit say that too loud over here. Say what? Spencer Pratt. He's got my vote.

[Mathnasium Advertiser]

Wait, is everyone here voting for Spencer Pratt?

[Mark Halperin]

The tagline you are not alone is meant to give that permission structure to parents and others in Los Angeles to say, it's okay. You can vote for Spencer Pratt. Nothing bad's going to happen, and something good might happen. And the greatest indication that something good might happen comes from California's other big city, San Francisco. Such an interesting story in San Francisco. Any of you who've ever been there or read about it know that in the last few years it has been beset by many of the same problems under a liberal mayors, liberal city attorneys that we see in Philadelphia, that we see in Atlanta, that we see all over the country in our biggest cities that have the same set of problems, people fleeing the cities, tax based declines, crime, homelessness, etc. San Francisco in 2025 elected a guy who's a Democrat, but a different kind of Democrat for most of the mayors we see in these big cities, a mayor who was willing to stand up to the very liberal people in the council and Board of Supervisors. Dan. Daniel Laurie is his name and he has from the day he got elected and in his campaign he has said what Spencer Pratt says. Status quo is unacceptable. Let's clean up the city. Here is Daniel Laurie from his inauguration address in 2025. S4, please.

[Rob O'Neill]

Starting today we are treating the fentanyl crisis as the emergency that it is. As we speak. As we speak, the San Francisco Police

[Cabot Phillips]

Department and Sheriff's department are rapidly shift

[Rob O'Neill]

shifting resources and personnel to bring drug dealers to justice and clean up our streets.

[Mark Halperin]

So this guy, what has he done since he's been mayor for, you know, not that long months, Reduce crime, lowest level in 23 years, address the tent encampments of homelessness, figured out a way to fast track responses to drug people on the streets, dealing drugs, using drugs, figured out how to modernize the permitting process to cut bureaucracy, to allow businesses to grow and thrive and cleaned up neighborhoods. All these things have helped him. Well, what a voter said about him, you know what his approval rating is? You know what Mayor Laurie's approval rating is in San Francisco amongst registered voters? Recent San Francisco Chronicle poll 74%. 74%. There's not a lot in our society today that's got an approval rating like that. And it shows, as there are a few other examples like Giuliani and Bloomberg here in New York, it shows that regardless of party label, if somebody comes in and responds to the demands of people in the city, regardless of ideology, that says to liberal city council, no, we're going to have to do things differently. That's a big challenge. You can clean up a city and once you get that going, it feeds on itself. Lower crime, more businesses move in, bigger tax base, schools get better funded, draws in people who want to live there, stop the population decline, all these things. If you go to a place like Philadelphia, go to a place like Atlanta where, where the Populations have gone way down. Detroit, although Detroit had a bit of a comeback because they also had a mayor like this. But Detroit over the last few years, what you see is people react to that, voters react to that, businesses react to that. I don't want this debate to be wasted. I don't. I don't want Spencer Pratt to lose. And citizens from Los Angeles and other cities, I don't want them to say, well, that lesson of Spencer Pratt is make great videos, but that's not good enough to change the city. Karen Pratt, the incumbent, has done almost nothing to acknowledge the failures of liberal governance. Nothing serious. And now, of course, because God has a sense of humor, there's more fires now in the Los Angeles area. It's about to borrow the old Mike Dukakis line, it's not just about ideology. It's also about competence. Mr. Lori is an extraordinarily competent guy, and he takes the marriage of being competent and not being ideologically of the left, just saying, we're going to solve the problem. And people say there's no ideology about filling a pothole. That's true. But there can't be any ideology about dealing with homelessness, dealing with crime, dealing with bureaucratic red tape, dealing with bad schools. If America is to be great, America must have great cities. And the only way to have great cities is to try something different. One of the great failings of the Democratic Party, besides the failure of governance in the cities, is the failure of most of the Democratic elected leaders and think tanks to call it out and to say, hey, our party's been in charge in these cities for so long, and these cities suck. In this city now, we've got a liberal Democratic mayor, and it's anecdotal, but I see more people sleeping on the streets here in New York than I've seen in years. Okay, so we'll see if the Mondami experiment works, but I'd like to see maybe if the Pratt experiment could work as well. The lorry experiment seems to be working great, Mayor Dugan in Detroit, that seemed to work great because they did something different. So again, the lesson learned, the conversation. To have to save our cities, to build our cities back up, to make them gleaming, and to give kids who live there a chance to be safe and educated and prosperous is. Let's be open to trying something new. And I'll say again, Republicans have failed. Republicans like to talk about the failure of Democrats to govern the cities. What a failure, what a failure that Democrats, I mean, Republicans almost to a city have failed. To take advantage of consumer demand. Consumers are demanding better governance in our cities. What a level of incompetence, horrible incompetence that the Republican Party and individual Republicans have not figured out how to take advantage of. That. You go to a city and there's one, one company, and they're selling hot dogs. And the hot dogs taste horrible. They cost a lot of money and they taste horrible. And people, people who live there love hot dogs. The parents love feeding their kids hot dogs. And yet the only thing they can buy in their city is horrible, expensive hot dogs. You would think if the Republican Party had any sense, any ability, any, any focus, they'd say, well, let's figure out how to make great tasting hot dogs that we can sell affordably. You would think they'd be able to take advantage of that market. This metaphor, ladies and gentlemen, tells you all you need to know. Because with few exceptions, for 40 or 50 years, most Republicans haven't figured out how to take over the hot dog market. That's the discussion we need to have. Whether it's Democrats like in San Francisco, or whether it's Republicans. Let's get some people in city councils and in mayoral positions who can actually make our cities great for kids. And that's the lesson from Spencer Pratt. He's a flawed candidate, but he's getting attention. He's got a chance to win because he's telling people we need to do it differently. All right, there you have it. Let me know what you think. I'd love to know what you think about your, your city or the city you live near. If you don't live right in the city, what is wrong with your city? Why have no conservatives or competent people stepped up to govern what's standing in the way? Send me an email nextup halpernmail.com Again, that's nextup [e-mail]. let me know what you think and also make sure you subscribe to NextUp. Nexters must be bigger in numbers. We must have legions of Nexters. So go to our YouTube channel right now and subscribe to see the full shows. Let everything flow your way, including bonus content from the program. Go to YouTube.com NextUp Halperin Send that link to your friends YouTube.com NextUp HalperIn. Listen to the show as a podcast as well. Share that as well. Subscribe to that. Make sure your downloads are turned on there. All these basic things, please do. And please share the show so more people can be nexters and be part of the conversation here. And make sure you always know what's coming. Next up. All right, we're gonna take a quick break and then when we come back. Next up, the great Cabot Phillips, the Daily Wire senior editor and the host of Wired in live. Cabot Phillips is next up. From Focus Features and the producers of Darkest Hour comes the new movie, the untold Story of D day. In the 72 hours leading up to the largest seaborne invasion in history, General Dwight D. Eisenhower faced an impossible decision that would determine the fate of the war. As Allied forces prepare to land, two massive storms converge over Normandy. Behind closed doors, with the clock ticking down, General Eisenhower must decide, send 300,000 men into nature's unforgiving fury or delay and risk losing the war itself. There's no safe option, only consequences. One decision would change the world forever. On May 29, experience a powerful and inspiring story of courage, sacrifice and the mission that gave the free world hope. Starring Andrew Scott, Brendan Fraser, Kerry Condon and Damian Lewis. Pressure is filled with thrilling tension from beginning to end. And without a doubt, it must be seen on the big screen. Pressure. The Untold True Story of D day is rated PG 13. May be inappropriate for children under 13. Only in theaters May 29th. All right, everybody, next up and joining me now, Cabot Phillips. He's the Daily Wire senior editor and host because everyone on the show hosts something. Host of Wired in live streams on DailyWire.com every day, 8, 4 Eastern Time. Not every day Monday through Friday because on Monday through Thursday, because on Fridays. Cabot, what are you doing at 4 Eastern time on Fridays?

[Cabot Phillips]

I am taking my son fishing in the river behind my house. I'm surviving with a two and a half year old and a three month old. So I'm just trying to catch my breath as much as possible on Fridays.

[Mark Halperin]

Is it the two and a half year old you're taking fishing?

[Cabot Phillips]

Yes, I'm giving my wife a little break, as much as you can call

[Mark Halperin]

a break at the three months old. That's fantastic that you've got a, a leisurely four day a week schedule with the show. That's great. What kind of fish are back there, Gar?

[Cabot Phillips]

You know, a lot of people in the south, they, they think that gar are just trash fish that they throw back. But I love catching a big giant gar.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. And what are you, what are you using for bait?

[Cabot Phillips]

Cut bait. So I have a little bait net that my son loves throwing out. We'll catch some, some minnows and some sunfish and he gets a little scared when I have to chop them up to make the bait. But it's important to. To teach our next generation to, you know, sometimes you got to see some blood. And so we'll. We'll chop the fish up and throw them out.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. You've lived in urban areas and you've lived in rural. Rural. Rural. Ish. Areas. What. Where are you most like a city boy?

[Cabot Phillips]

I'm most like a city boy in that I wear cowboy boots every day that I very rarely actually use to live the cowboy lifestyle. And so I still like all of my. All of my. My city comforts. But that's. The entire city of Nashville is full of people who fancy themselves as ranchers and outdoorsmen, and none of them actually are because no one is actually from Tennessee. No, it's actually from Nashville, myself included. So there's still a lot of city boy things I'm trying to shake off living here.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. When you think about America now, do you think about big cities? I talked to my monologue about the problems in big cities like Nashville. Does it have big city problems that need correcting?

[Rob O'Neill]

No.

[Cabot Phillips]

It does, yeah. There's still plenty of crime. That's why we moved out of. We were in downtown Nashville for four years and we had our cars getting broken into constantly. Our house got paintballed one night by some teenagers. There was a shooting that my wife and I witnessed on the sidewalk. We saw a guy bleeding out on the sidewalk. And that was one of the shocking things for us. We just thought, oh, we'll get to a red state and the crime won't be there. And the city is still the city. And it's not as bad as our neighbors to the west in Memphis, or at least not as bad as it used to be. Now that they've got the National Guard there, things have cooled down a bit. But Nashville still has plenty of the big city problems.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, I envy you all out there in Nashville because if you're going to cover America like you and I do, you're better off doing it from Nashville than from New York. But I work my hardest on two way. I talk to people from all over the country. I try to read media that's not just New York and D.C. based. But you have an advantage over me. And again, I envy you that. If I spent a day with you in Nashville going about your business, shopping, doing stuff with the kids, talking to your neighbors, would you know there's a big conflict going on with Iran? Is that a topic of conversation out there?

[Cabot Phillips]

You would know indirectly, because the gas prices are absolutely a conversation. The economy is absolutely conversation, which in a way is a proxy of the Iran war. So very few people are in day to day conversation in Tennessee bringing up what's going on and is the Ayatollah still alive and is President Trump going to make this ceasefire permanent? But they're absolutely having conversations about the gas and about the affordability situation and about the cost of housing. And I do think that there is an extension in a way where they're viewing that as, oh, that actually is related to the Iran war, even if that's not the predominant thing that they're talking about in conversation.

[Mark Halperin]

When we look at the polls, we see a lot of people are disappointed in the President's decision to start this conflict. They're disappointed in how it's going. They say the economic effects, including gas prices, impact them. This is stated in the extreme, just for effect. How could any MAGA person say that this was a good idea? What's that branch of MAGA that says a foreign, expensive, foreign adventure halfway around the world is a good idea? What's that strain of MAGA besides just blind belief in Donald Trump?

[Cabot Phillips]

I think that the answer to that is just, it's the results. I think they're waiting to see the results and right now they still in the MAGA crowd. I think a lot of them do still have faith in President Trump. And you look at Venezuela, for example, before the conflict, the polling showed that the majority of Americans were not in favor of the idea of intervening. And then after the intervention, you start to get the results coming in and they say, hey, maybe President Trump is different. Maybe President Trump is not in keeping capable of avoiding forever wars and he can actually get in and get out. And so you saw the polling increase after the fact in Venezuela where they said maybe that was a good idea. And I think with Iran, until you actually see the long term closure and you see the results, I think you're going to have the majority of Americans saying it's a bad idea because there's still this hangover from Iraq and Afghanistan. And one of the things I hear from a lot of MAGA voters is trust the process. And they're saying, well, we're just going to believe that President Trump knows things about this situation that we maybe don't. And Trump has been really brilliant, I think in the messaging of Pannequins of framing anyone who doesn't trust his way of thinking as well. You're just panicking and you're not having enough faith. And haven't you learned by now that I can do things differently than my predecessors, and that works when the results are there. But I do think that there are going to be folks in the MAGA movement that things start to fray a bit where they say, hey, I'm not a pannikin because I don't really see a light at the end of the tunnel here. I'm not a panicking because I don't want to be paying $455, $6 for a gallon of gas. And so I think that the, the President's team is certainly starting to realize that the, the messaging on Iran of, hey, this is going to make America safer in the long run and if we can just deal with this for a little bit, it's going to be worth it. That message works when it's a two, three week conflict, as he initially said it would be. It doesn't work when it starts to drag out. And obviously Trump's comment last week of he's not concerning himself with the economic concerns of Americans, you can frame that as well. He's trying to keep leverage with the Iranians. Of course, he's not going to tip his hand to them and say, yeah, I'm really feeling the pressure for a deal. But I think this is the single biggest factor for President Trump's popularity with the gop and we're already seeing the impact it's having with independents and young voters.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, the impact's extraordinary. And we'll talk about the polling in a second. But just for the war itself, I say all the time, we all should hope for the best. We should hope that the United States succeeds, frees the people from Iran, stops the nuclear threat, stops there being the greatest sponsor of terrorism in the world. But we also have to not be afraid of dealing with the reality that it may not work out. So right now, within the realm of the plausible, the possible, what's the worst case scenario that you think is possible that really worries you about this?

[Cabot Phillips]

Oh, boots on the ground, undoubtedly. You know, I think he'll never do it.

[Mark Halperin]

I can take, I can allay your worries. He'll never do it.

[Cabot Phillips]

Yeah, well, I think we saw how close we got to that because we did technically have boots on the ground when it came to the rescue of those pilots, which, praise God that we were able to get them out. But there already were people that were put on the ground. And I don't think it's completely out of the realm of possibility that we see some sort of movement on Carg island, or at least we know that the Pentagon has those plans together, and I think President Trump is rightfully worried about the consequences of that. But, okay, let's take booths on the ground, off the table. Worst case scenario is there's no concessions that are being offered from the Iranians. This continues to drag on. We know President Trump likes to have a clear point that he can make and say, hey, this is what I got out of this entire conflict. And I don't think there's a clear example of what that looks like right now. We know that he wants to get a deal so he can say, I forced them to come to the table. They're not going to get nukes anytime soon. But without a deal like that, it almost forces his hand where he has to go back in and has to kickstart. The military strikes again. And I think that's a very real possibility. And I would say short term, worst case scenario is that this thing is not wrapped up by the midterms. And with every day that goes by, that does seem more possible.

[Hunter Biden]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

When Cabot Phillips reads a poll that shows what every public and private poll shows, and you alluded to it earlier, loss of support of the president over the start of his presidency and from the campaign with young people, young men, independents, Hispanic voters. When you read those polls, what do you say to yourself?

[Cabot Phillips]

I'm an eternal optimist. And so initially I tell myself, well, these polls are clearly skewed. You can't trust these polls. Look at them as a conservative. That's what I tell myself. But the realistic side of me says, okay, this is. This is natural. The party in power. We know it's the. It's a. It's a cliche for a reason. The party in power is never going to be as popular the longer they're in power. And I tell myself that. But the more I look at this, the more concerned I am, because I do think that this is a real trend. And what gets even more concerning is when you, up until April, if you looked at those polls, there wasn't a clear sign in the polling that people were leaving their support of President Trump and then embracing Democrats on generic ballots, start of April, that started to shift where you do now. See folks who are saying, hey, I'm not really sure what President Trump is up to these days. And the Democrats are looking more appealing. They are starting to gain ground on generic ballots. That is the most concerning element for me. And I think for a while a lot of Republicans told ourselves, hey, the good news for us is that Democrats are Still deeply unpopular. And yes, they have plenty of problems. And if you actually hone in on the specific candidates, especially some of their senatorial candidates, yeah, they've got some problems. But there does seem to be traction right now for voters in the middle who are starting to shift to the Democrat Party. And that's especially noticeable for young voters. But I always like reminding people that even like in like Generation Z for example, they're not a monolith. And if you look at some of this polling data, there's a fascinating breakdown between 18 to 22 year olds, sort of the younger Gen z and then 22 to 29 where the younger Gen zers, they're not breaking for Democrats even if they are abandoning their support of President Trump at higher rates. The 22 to 29 year olds, they are leaving President Trump and going over to the Democrat Party. The latest poll from Yale made a 14 point shift towards Democrats. And so I think that's another thing that I've been tracking very closely is what the young people are doing.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, speaking of that, you and I have not spoken ever about Charlie Kirk, but I know just from knowing about you that we share a lot of thoughts about him. And one is he's not really been replaced because he's not replaceable. That he was a singular talent but also played, had a singular place in the world in his relationships with others from the president to grassroots and his capacity to engage in politics and running an organization. But also think about the future and particularly this issue of young men and how to give young men a combination of spiritual hope and economic hope. And his absence. I worry about it every day because that's not going to. There's no sign that that's going to be replaced. And it has implications for the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, but it also has implication for millions of young men. So where can that come from? Where can what Charlie talked about to give people hope to be able to buy a home, for instance. Where can who, who or where can that come from now?

[Cabot Phillips]

Yeah, you bring up a great point. That is, I think the biggest vacuum that has been left by Charlie has not just been the impact that Turning Point had on, on the ground and the impact he had when it came to motivating people. It was also his ability to build coalitions. I think he did a fantastic job of holding together all of these different factions within the gop and he really was sort of the conduit between a lot of different groups that otherwise would be at war. As we're seeing Right now on the right, there is this huge war that's taking place between these different factions. And I can't help but wonder how much of that is because Charlie is not here to sort of hold those different groups.

[Rob O'Neill]

Almost.

[Mark Halperin]

Almost all of it. Almost all of it, I believe.

[Cabot Phillips]

But I think it's impossible to overstate the impact that his murder has had on that. As for who is filling the void, obviously you have groups like ours at the Daily Wire where we're looking at our audience and saying, hey, we want to reach these young people and give them a hopeful vision and ensure that they're not falling victim to this black pill mindset of, oh, what's the point? Nothing matters anymore. But it's going to have to be people that are giving people, not just the aspirational side. Because I've been to 100 plus college campuses in the last three years. I've talked to literally thousands of college students, many of them young men. And I think they get a little frustrated at being told the, you know, the bootstrap story of, hey, well, my generation, we just figured it out. There's this bootstrap mentality, and there's still just as much opportunity in America today as there's ever been. And I do think that frustrates a lot of young people, young men in particular, and they're saying, hey, we're dealing with unique problems that you guys were not dealing with. And they're looking at the job market, they're looking at AI. That's one of the most common things I hear from young people say, we're really scared about being able to get jobs because of AI. You look at the cost of living and, and how much more money you have to make today to afford buying a house. And many of them are saying, it's just not going to happen for me. And you look at the, the cost of student loans and just being able to get a degree in the first place, and there is this hopelessness. And I don't think the solution to reaching those young men is saying, wah, wah, wah, cry some more. Every generation has had it hard because I don't think that's frankly fair, because they are up against a unique set of circumstances right now in this generation. And I think the solution is to say, yeah, there are some real problems you guys are facing that past generations, even mine as a millennial, that I didn't have to put up with. I would rather not coddle them, but say, hey, there are real issues you guys are dealing with. Let's talk about Those. Let's talk about how conservative ideas are the ones that are the best to change those. But I think that there are a lot of people on the right. It's kind of this old guard mentality of just saying, suck it up, just work harder, deal with it. And I don't think that is going to be the message that resonates with them because I hear that from them directly. They are tired of that. They are put off by that.

[Mark Halperin]

I'm a little bit between the two polls there, and I'm sure you would be too. I mean, you shouldn't coddle them. You also shouldn't be indifferent to the reality of how they're experiencing the changed circumstances. But I'd lean a little bit, I'd be a little bit more. Lean a little bit more into this notion that, you know, it's not going to be easy, but it wasn't easy for previous generations for different reasons. But, but I, I do worry about him. And this is again, one of the geniuses of Charlie Kirk is. He challenged them. He didn't, he didn't coddle them. He challenged them even as he expressed intellectual and emotional sympathy for, for how they were feeling. They've got to be challenged. It's not going to be easy. I alone. I alone. And the long term trend towards the challenges of affording homes and, and school, they're going to have to work for it. It's not going to be handed to them. Yeah, right.

[Cabot Phillips]

Yeah. And I think that's also that, that sentiment that they're feeling is also, I think, why you are seeing the rise of this nihilistic, you know, cult, also anti Semitic, you know, the Nick Fuente style, you know, message that's resonating with them. I think that's because they're feeling like no one is actually empathizing with them. And they're feeling like, hey, everyone's just telling me I suck. I grew up in the George Floyd era where I was told that I was bad for being, you know, a white person. Or I grew up in the MeToo era where I was told I was being, I was terrible person just for being a man. And they're looking at the environment they're coming into and saying, does anyone actually care about me? And they're also looking, I think for many of them for an excuse for why they feel like they haven't been more successful. And I think that is one reason why you see this enormous rise in anti Semitic mentalities among that group is because it's very comforting for them. To be told by a figure on the right, hey, it's not your fault that you're not succeeding. It's actually people who are controlling our entire economy and people who are controlling our government. And you can see that control everywhere you look. And I think it's comforting for them to be told, oh, it's. It's actually the Jews. It's actually Israel. It's actually these elites that, you know that President Trump is embroiled in with the Epstein scandal. And it kind of takes away that ownership from them and makes them feel relieved. And I think that it's another reason why that message has. Has worked with a lot of them. And it's something that we have to constantly fight against because we know where that ultimately leads.

[Mark Halperin]

Leaving aside your colleagues at the Daily Wire, many of whom legitimately would be candidates to be. To be the right answer, but leaving them aside, who's someone who you think has got a platform now, elected official, podcaster, activist, whoever, who you think speaks persuasively and courageously to young men on these issues?

[Cabot Phillips]

Well, from an elected standpoint, J.D. vance is the one that sticks out the most. And I think that it's refreshing for a lot of young people because every single young person that I meet on these college campuses, I like to ask them, as a sort of icebreaker, hey, you get to snap your fingers tomorrow. Who do you want to be president? J.D. vance is probably top one or two candidates that I hear people saying, I love J.D. vance. And one of the things they like, they say he doesn't seem so dogmatic. He seems realistic. He seems like someone who is talking a lot about the stuff I care about. And he's talking to them about the affordability crisis. He's talking a lot about their desire to become parents. He's talking about the virtues of marriage. And he's. He's saying, hey, I'm not going to be so dogmatic on some of the old school, you know, Reagan style, like free market adherence to where I'm not going to say the government has no role in supporting the formation of family and that the role of the government ultimately should be to create human flourishing and to create families and make it affordable for them. And I think he does a great job of empathizing them without coddling them. And I think that he absolutely, as a young father himself, has a special way of relating with young people, young men in particular. So he would be the one that sticks out the most.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. What a puzzle the vice president is, because what you just enunciated beautifully, I hear from so many people who know him well. And I think it's a perfectly, to say the least, reasonable way of describing how the Vice President relates to people. But as you know, there are people in media, Democrats, but in Republican circles, who have a totally different view of him. Phony, you know, insincere, all the things that go along with that. And I just find it such a puzzle. And, And I know that's not unprecedented for people in public life, but it really strikes me because we're all looking at the same data. We're looking at the same guy or the same public events, and yet every time he's on stage, I hear just extremely favorable. And again, what you said was lovely and I think accurate for the. For the minds of tens of millions, including a lot of young people. And then I hear people say, Marco Mentum is about to steamroll the vice president in 28. It's over.

[Rob O'Neill]

Uh, what a.

[Mark Halperin]

You know, what a horrible phony is. Is he. Am I. Am I overstating the degree to which he has this incredibly polarized view, or is that true of everybody in public life? To some extent, I think it's.

[Cabot Phillips]

I think to some extent it's. It's true of everyone. And we'll see how much that sentiment lasts with JD Vance if he is the front runner. Because, again, I think a lot of young people, there's sort of this. This. This leading, you know, understanding of him, and they've seen a few clips of him here or there, but I don't think there's, like, a total widespread knowledge of his background. And I think if more of them start to learn about, hey, he seems to have really changed since his, like, National Review 2016, 17, 18 days. And that could absolutely be something that shifts on him. It's funny you mentioned Rubio. I worked on the Rubio 2016 presidential campaign, and I remember the week where we coined that term, Marco Mentum. And I remember we were all. We were saying to as many people as we could, hey, use the term Marco Mentum. That's going to be the new thing. So it warms my heart 10 years later to see that phrase still being thrown around there.

[Mark Halperin]

Just to be clear, I use it ironically, but I take your point, Cabot. We'd have you on the show twice a week if you're available. I know you got your own show and other stuff. You got to go fishing with your kid, but let's see if we can free up to be on here. We're only on twice a week. So you'd basically be my co host.

[Cabot Phillips]

I'm happy to do that. And then you can come join me on my program as well because.

[Mark Halperin]

Sure.

[Cabot Phillips]

Can we form a reciprocal relationship here?

[Mark Halperin]

Because we can.

[Cabot Phillips]

I would love that.

[Mark Halperin]

And then we can tell people the relationship between Wired and Live. And next up is the special bilateral relationship in all of programs. Cabot, grateful to you. Thank you for being on.

[Cabot Phillips]

Thank you, Mark.

[Mark Halperin]

Really appreciate it. See you next time I'm in Nashville. Cabot's program's on. As we said, it's called Wired in live Monday through Thursday for Fridays for fishing, 4 Eastern Time on the Daily Wire website. Thank you, man. Great to see you.

[Cabot Phillips]

Absolutely.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, next up, we look at a new match. A new interview being touted by Candace Owens. The identity of the person sitting down with Candace Owens will surprise you. That's next up. Think for a moment about the last 30 bucks that you spent. Maybe on a streaming subscription you don't watch or a lunch you've already forgotten. That's $30 and it's gone forever. Acre Gold lets you turn that lost money into something better, physical. 24 karat Swiss gold. You pick a plan, your balance builds up and then we. Once you hit the price of a bar, they ship it straight to your front door. Real gold right in your hand, right at your house. And over time, you're sitting on something that's been valuable since the dawn of civilization. And for you collectors out there, they just dropped something cool. The limited edition Hot Wheels collection. These are officially licensed by Mattel, strictly capped. And once they're gone, they're gone. They're history. So while you're checking them out, you can claim your free entry in the speed club sweepstakes. They're giving away a 1 gram hot wheels gold bar plus a massive grand Prize. It's a 10 gram 24 karat Gold Hot Wheels bar. Both come in official collector packaging and they're up for grabs right now. Start stacking for just $30 at getacregold.com mark. Go right now to getacregold.com mark and subscribe today.

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[Mark Halperin]

All right, next up, something surprising. Takes a lot to surprise me, but this did. Out of the blue. On Monday, Candace Owens dropped a trailer for an interview she plans to air earlier this week. It's her sit down with an unexpected individual, Hunter Biden. This is a spectacle. Certainly a lot of action on X and elsewhere. People laughing about it, wondering what's up. And as you'll see in a moment when I show you the trailer, there's a certain camaraderie between these two. And they certainly not necessarily from the same team. Or are they? I think beneath the spectacle, there's something going on important here. On the conspiratorial left and on the conspiratorial right, there's common cause, distrust for elites, anger at the status quo, and a desire to shape public image. In the case of both Candace Owens and Hunter Biden, by teaming up and railing against the stuff they don't like. So I want you to watch this, everyone I've showed it to so far over the last day. See a lot of mouths wide open, gaping mouths, and wonder, what is this all about? Here is the preview of the upcoming sit down. The tete a tete between Candace Owens and Hunter Biden.

[Rob O'Neill]

So the FBI has had physical possession

[Hunter Biden]

of Hunter Biden's laptop, which reportedly contains, well, a lot of disturbing material.

[Rob O'Neill]

You have access to that actual laptop?

[Mark Halperin]

A jury found Hunter Biden guilty of three felony gun charges. I said I abide by the jury decision. I will do that. And I will not, partner.

[Rob O'Neill]

Oopsies. He lied. He pardoned a crackhead. Hunter Biden.

[Cabot Phillips]

Welcome to the Candace Owens Show.

[Hunter Biden]

I've heard you call me a crackhead many times. And the truth of the matter is I was a crackhead. The quote, unquote laptop, which, by the way, is. But you know what?

[Mark Halperin]

The laptop proved that you were crackhead.

[Hunter Biden]

There you go. My marriage fell apart and it just started a really, really dark cycle. My brother called me and said, this has got to stop. And it forced me into a choice. And the choice was, do I get out of bed and live or do I die?

[Mark Halperin]

D.C. is corrupt. Politics is corrupt.

[Hunter Biden]

But something's changed in this. It's not left or right. The DC elite of the. Of the left, they crushed my dad because he was never part of that club. He was never part of the Epstein class. You know, one thing he didn't do, he didn't greenlight to turn Gaza into a Trump golf Course, with the maitre d being Jared Kushner. War in Iran that they started, that every president before him was pressured by the Israelis.

[Rob O'Neill]

I do think there was something about

[Cabot Phillips]

the Charlie Kirk assassination that everyone just

[Mark Halperin]

sort of looked up.

[Hunter Biden]

They're the people that Charlie Kirk made. The level of disloyalty or fear, I don't know what it is. And the criticism of you for asking the questions for someone who was like a brother to you, it's like, what the f are you talking about? I listen to you and I go right on the acts of John. There is a thing that Christ says, you must learn to suffer as I do in order be able not to suffer. And that is the greatest lesson of everything.

[Mark Halperin]

More than one person in my life has called this a match made in hell. And truly, it's easy to mock, and it's easy to. Even in the brief clip there, it's easy to listen to Hunter Biden and Candace Owens and. And. And wonder, you know, what this is about. Why. Why did she do it? Particularly, why did he do it? What's in it for Hunter Biden? And the reality is Hunter Biden wants to reshape how people see him, how people see his family. And for whatever reason, and the proof will be in the interview, he thinks Candace Owens is a platform, is a vehicle to get people to think anew. And they both have extraordinarily similar views, even though their politics aren't the same. About the status quo, about elites, about power, about conspiracy. It's important that everybody listens to this, not as spectacle, but to understand what I continue to believe is one of the most important and dangerous dynamics going on on our national town square now, which is the belief that if something's not right, if something you don't like about what's going on in America, it's because powerful interests are trying to screw you. There's a lot of that in reality. But it is not the explanation for everything. It is not the explanation, for instance, for why Joe Biden didn't win the election. And what we need to do, those of us who don't instantly go to conspiracy theories about everything, is try to understand why so many of our fellow countrywomen and countrymen, that's what they do. If you don't like the status quo, if you don't like something, it's because powerful interests are trying to screw you. And it's amazing to see common cause not just sitting down to the interview, but apparently expressing a lot of similar views between these two folks. So watch it, enjoy the spectacle, enjoy the, just the freak show nature of it, but also let's use it as an opportunity to again do something that I think is so important if we want our kids and grandkids to have a better future in this country, which is to understand that you cannot cry conspiracy theory. You cannot blame elites for everything you don't like about America. They have, they have their share of responsibility and I'm not minimizing it. And I know from economics to culture to politics, elites have a lot to answer for, but they don't, but their, their behavior doesn't explain everything. And I think you're going to see with this interview that their common cause may be a common problem. All right, there you have it. And we'll talk more about this interview once it drops. Next up here, Rob o', Neill, a former SEAL Team six operator, a man with a great podcast and a great story to tell about Osama bin Laden. Rob o' Neill is next up. Are you being lied to? They tell you to defer paying your taxes by saving in a 401k or an IRA because you'll retire in a lower tax bracket. But if that were true, why are so many retirees in the highest tax bracket of their lives? It's time to get the truth. Time to discover a better way to grow and protect your money. Bank on yourself is the proven retirement plan that alternative that banks and Wall street desperately hope that you never hear about. It gives you guaranteed predictable growth that doesn't go backward when the market drops. It can provide tax free retirement income under current tax law, putting you in control of your future tax rate. You also have something important, control of your money. Access it whenever you need to with no government penalties or restrictions and your money keeps growing even when you use it. Right now, get a free report that reveals how you can bank on yourself and enjoy that tax free retirement income. Guaranteed growth and control of your money. Right now go to bankonyourself.com mark and get your free report again. Bankonyourself.com mark give it a try. Go to bankonyourself.com parents have you heard

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[Mark Halperin]

All right, next up and joining me now, Rob o', Neill, former SEAL Team six operator, the man credited with actually killing Osama bin Laden. And of course, like everyone else in America, he's got a podcast. But Rob's is worth listening to. It's the Operator podcast comes out every Wednesday on all your favorite streaming platforms. Rob, welcome to NextUp.

[Rob O'Neill]

Thanks for having me, Mark. I appreciate it. Thanks for the plug.

[Mark Halperin]

The office.

[Rob O'Neill]

Great time.

[Mark Halperin]

Yes, sir. I bet. What are your aspirations for it? What do you hope it achieves?

[Rob O'Neill]

Just, I like to share opinions with people who do stuff. I call it the Operator because I used to be a special operator, but that term goes with anyone who does anything that helps other people. And the ones I key on are like this. Any mom, a mom that raises kids is an operator and anyone that does any kind of work. So I give my opinion as an operator on anything and then I listen to the responses and if I'm wrong, I admit I'm wrong. So it's just that the platform's just, here's what I think. What do you think? And then sometimes I'm able to have fun guests. I interview a lot of special operators. Just entrepreneurs, stuff like that.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. Awesome. Well, grateful to you for being here. As we sit in here talk today, there's a little bit of uncertainty about what's going to happen in Iran. So I want to ask you some things that are applicable, whether whether or not there's conflict, kinetic activity or not. First of all, as someone who served in the armed forces, as you watch the coverage of the conflict, what does the media tend to get wrong? Because most people in the media haven't served

[Rob O'Neill]

well. They seem to get a lot of things wrong because right now they are saying they're up to negotiations and Pakistan is mediating without considering their entire military is wiped out. Iran doesn't even know who's who anymore. And if someone thinks they're negotiating, they're dead. Their Navy's on the bottom of the ocean. So what the media is doing is they're trying to pretend that this is a big catastrophe when we're just beating someone up right now and it's just a matter of how long we can, they can take it, how long it's like their will is for the media to make our populace upset. That's about it. Like Baghdad Bob tried it, but we overran him in 03 and we're doing it now. But they're just so, I mean, the issue is you need to verify everything. Even with, with video, you can't really tell what's real. So people believe what they want to believe. And right now a lot of people out there hate Donald Trump so much, they want anything but a victory for him anywhere. So they're going to believe that, yeah, there's real negotiations when this is just a beat down until we get every single dotted I and crossed T that we want.

[Mark Halperin]

So if the President decides to bring kinetic action back, end the ceasefire and start to hit high value targets, both human and military and energy infrastructure, how can the Pentagon evaluate in advance the capacity Iran has to strike back? Desalination plants, energy, maybe underwater cables for communications. How can the Pentagon make that evaluation?

[Rob O'Neill]

Well, I mean that's, that's hard to say. And that's again up to the, the people in the intelligence arena. And they've been really good with their intelligence, as far as I know. I mean, one thing they're excellent at is not really telling anyone what they're doing. And they don't, they don't telegraph anything, so it's hard to say. I mean, Iran, all they can, all they can do is put out false narratives and then destroy, destroy their own stuff, like try to, you know, mess with the Straits of Hormuz or their own infrastructure, whatever. They don't, they don't have any capabilities really. This is precisely why they want to get the potential for nuclear weapons away from them. Just because you never know what they're going to do. And I mean, the people in the high end religious minority who happen to be in charge, they're crazy people and they really believe that the Imam's already on earth, they're going to bring it back by world destruction. So you can't let them have a nuke. And I'm not here arguing for war, I'm just saying what I think is happening. I've also been on the, you know, I've seen two weeks away from weapons of mass destruction for, well, basically my entire career in the military. And I fought in a lot of wars and killed a lot of people because of stuff like that. So I'm not saying here's what should happen or what, what I, you know, this is what I think is going on. And I'm not saying it's, I mean, well, the summer will tell when gas prices go down, if it's good or not. And that's basically how people judge anything.

[Mark Halperin]

Right? But do you say there's a low or no Probability that if the United States struck again, Israel struck again, Iran could do damage to desalination plans. The Ritz Carlton in Doha, you're saying they absolutely can't, or no, they, they.

[Rob O'Neill]

Well, they can too. And it all depends on who has. Which stockpiles of. Stockpiles of what weapons, because it's going to be a ragtag. There's, there's no infrastructure as far as their chain of command, regardless of, I mean, and again, it's, it's. Even my sources are, are. I don't know what the percentage of being correct is, but as far as on the ground, it's going to be either our intelligence or intelligence with whom we agree. So it's hard to get a straight answer. But what I can tell from experience and in that part of the world, especially with overblown militaries and opposing defenses, they're not as good as you think they are. And then once you start destroying, there's just nothing. But for some reason, they're acting like there's a red carpet and a white tablecloth where people are negotiating. They're getting there. They're getting, they're getting beat down.

[Mark Halperin]

They still control the strait, though, and they still haven't turned over their nuclear material. Those seem to be the two things that have to occur. So as, as, as much as they're beaten down, they still have the capacity to hold out, at least for a while, it seems. No.

[Rob O'Neill]

Well, I mean, again, probably if you have to go in and get something, that's when you get into the whole mission creep and everything. And we saw this, the stuff with the, the aviators that we had to go get to. There were, I mean, do you know if they've released the names of those guys yet?

[Mark Halperin]

I don't think they ever did.

[Rob O'Neill]

That's a big, big package to fly into Iran to get to aviators, don't you think?

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, yeah.

[Rob O'Neill]

I wonder if they, I wonder if they were doing something else.

[Mark Halperin]

Could be. This is something that undercovered both for the Israelis in the United States and people talk about whether they're quote, unquote, boots on the ground. There have been Americans and Israelis on the ground from the beginning, haven't there been?

[Rob O'Neill]

Oh, of course, yeah. I mean, I think we have. And again, I'm not there. So as we talk right now, Mark,

[Mark Halperin]

this is basically my informed, informed speculation.

[Rob O'Neill]

Yeah, I'd say that too. I mean, yeah, we have abilities to go into places with boots on the ground and get nuclear material. That's, that's. We haven't Forgotten about that, too. Just because we don't talk about stuff doesn't mean it's not so.

[Mark Halperin]

What would the, what, what's the mission for Americans who are on the ground secretly in Iran now? What kinds of things?

[Rob O'Neill]

That I don't know. I mean, I, I, I've been out of the game for a while. I'm assume it's a, it's a long game, like a chess match where they've had boots on the ground for a long, long time and they're working on some sort of what I would call a soft coup, even though it's not soft anymore because we've been bombing them for about a year. But just to get, because you need to get the right people in power, and that doesn't necessarily mean the right people for us, but the right people in the region. We've made this mistake time and time again. We did in Iraq, where we thought, you know, we just got rid of the bath party when we should have kept them in place because there's an infrastructure. And now you kind of want to do the same thing, but you want to get the crazies out because the Iranian people want to, you know, they want to live the life like they had it in 19, like the first half of 1979 and before. So right now, the boots on the ground should be with the infrastructure. And, you know, I don't know how many times we need to prove with boots on the ground, we can go in and attempt to build schools for 10 times the price for people who don't want them. But you need the people, and so hopefully they'll work in that infrastructure.

[Mark Halperin]

One of the challenges of this for now is either opening the strait entirely or opening it partially. And the President says the Navy's destroyed. He says the Air Force is destroyed. He says a lot of the small craft are destroyed. But then we hear that a lot of capability on the Iran side still exists along the coast. And again, it's a very narrow waterway. So if you control the coast, you can keep ships from passing through.

[Rob O'Neill]

No, they don't control the coast. That's ridiculous.

[Mark Halperin]

Well, they have assets on the coast now.

[Rob O'Neill]

Yeah, but just because we've decided not to destroy everyone yet.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay, so that's my question. Why not? Why not just destroy everything they have on the.

[Rob O'Neill]

Almost like it's, it's a, it's a big jungle cat playing with a mouse right now. I, I don't know the answers either. I mean, we, there's probably ways to get it over land.

[Cabot Phillips]

You don't even.

[Rob O'Neill]

You can bypass the Straits of Hormuz. We just haven't decided to do it yet. Or we could take the Straits for Hormuz and we could just sell our new oil to Europe if we wanted to. Right. We just haven't yet. And I don't know. These are questions that I'll have to ask the Secretary of War. I mean, we could, because they're using the military the way we should. You can beat someone up and you don't need to put boots on the ground. You can negotiate that way, because I think even von Clouswitz said that it's. It's still a political means just at the end. And that's the way they're doing it. We don't need to commit. We don't need to pretend we're nice, and we're not pretending we're nice. We're going to beat these guys up until they leave. And this is the first time I've seen this foreign policy, and I'll be honest, I kind of like it.

[Mark Halperin]

What's the longest you were ever deployed? Someplace where you had to sit around and wait for orders?

[Rob O'Neill]

Well, I think that's forever. Even when I started deploying before 9, 11, we would. We would go even into Europe. But we, you know, we. I remember one of the first things I ever did was protecting an award ceremony in Albania, and that's in 1998. And they even mentioned the name Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. At the time. I was fresh out of sniper school by like three months, and I was in Albania. So you never. I mean, even when you're there for contingencies, anything could happen. Bosnia, Kosovo. There's stuff in Liberia we've swum into there to try to get people out of the embassy. So you're always on call for something like that. And it could happen. Not at the level of Seal Team 6. Like Seal Team 6 right now is ready for anything to pull up. And they'll have guys there in a certain amount of time.

[Mark Halperin]

Right. I'm thinking of the folks who are deployed now on ships, for instance, who've been there for a while since the ceasefire went into effect. Just what's the psychology of that? How do they stay ready? How do they stay engaged with whatever mission they might get if they get another one.

[Rob O'Neill]

I would imagine for the sailors on the ships, it's business as usual, because even during peacetime, they're running flight ops and they're doing everything they need to do for contingencies. And for the Marines, they're doing the same stuff, stuff too, because they'll be on the big amphibious landing ships, which are just big. Like even when you see in the movie Top Guns, a top gun, like running up and down the hallways and stuff like that, and areas for soldiers and Marines and SEALs and stuff like that. And they can work on their gear, they can work on their craft. There's classrooms, there's all kinds of stuff. And we even have gyms which can be entertaining during high seas. But their mission prep has always been when they're there now they're forward deployed, they're ready for war at any time. And it really doesn't matter which environment. They can do it in Iran. They can go into the mountains. Afghanistan, if we need to go fight over in the islands, they can do it.

[Mark Halperin]

Is it hard psychologically to just be sitting there not really being, knowing what, what's coming or that's built into the job?

[Rob O'Neill]

I think it is for them and it wasn't really for us. Whenever there's a chance, I mean, you're kind of just chomping at the bit and waiting to see what happens. They have better technology on all these ships now, so they're able to stay on the Internet so they can sort of see what's happening. I'm sure they can have restricted access to different platforms. So, you know, they're just watching and waiting and I mean, every Marine out there is ready to fight whenever and they don't even need a reason.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, America has extraordinary capability for special ops. Obviously the Israelis seem to also. What do you know about what the Israelis are good at regarding stuff on the ground? They seem to have been able to over the years and in this conflict, assassinated, eliminated a lot of Iranian officials. What's the, what's the, what's, what did they do? Well to, to be able to have that capability?

[Rob O'Neill]

I mean, it seems their human intelligence is the best on the planet. They, they can get people anywhere. It seems like they have Mossad agents born in other places and they're raised there to get to a certain level of certain agencies. They're the, as far as intel, they're the, they're the most impressive that I've ever seen. And I mean, I don't even know. I wasn't in intel. I was at the, the end of the spear where the package comes together and they kind of delivered us. I was the guy that would pay attention to, go through, go to that, you know, through that alley to that house. That's where the bad guys are. But they're really good at the intel we've seen it with. I mean, considering where Israel lives and they're surrounded by enemies, they've got to have human intelligence and signal intelligence everywhere. Again, not my forte, but they seem to be really, really good at that. And then the idf, with whom I've worked, the Special Forces, just sharp dudes that get it. I always. I always say that one thing Special Forces have in common is a great sense of humor. And that's true with the Israeli Special Forces. What I would say about them is just they're a touch more serious. It seems like they're in it more than. Well, I mean, historically, obviously, everyone's fighting now, but it seems like closer to home, they're fighting it.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. I want to ask you about something that gets reported all the time, disputed by the administration at times, which is the drawdown of munitions in this conflict. Clearly, there's been some. How can a citizen know what the truth is? On that one, a lot of press reports, a lot of accusations from Democrats, some Republicans, that this is a dangerous drawdown, and others say it's not.

[Rob O'Neill]

Well, I mean, getting any reports you need, you need to verify everything. Everyone's got their own interest in mind. And even reports that come out that say, there's some even videos that come out to say, here's us doing this. It could be someone doing counterintelligence. So I cannot overemphasize the verification of everything that you can possibly get. And if you can find any kind of freelance people on social media that are on the ground, that are, again, the verification, and on multiple different platforms, it's hard to get the truth anywhere because even look at the algorithms, look at the bots we even catch ourselves arguing with that aren't real people, but just based on the history, they talk to us. So it's a tough one. I mean, I like to get outside and talk to people. I'm fortunate to travel a lot, so I kind of get the pulse that way. But just, you know, just. Even with AI lying to you on purpose, try to find different sources.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. And on this particular question, where do you come down? Do you think the drawdown of munition supplies is. It puts the United States in a precarious position regarding Asia or just even in Iran itself.

[Rob O'Neill]

It all depends on who's playing the cards. Because, I mean, a drawdown for everyone, yeah, that'd be fine. In a vacuum, that'd be great. If it gets people to the table and gets them to sign what we want, that's fine. I don't think a drawdown ever happens. I think it's just like government programs. You start giving them to them, they're never going to relinquish them.

[Mark Halperin]

But do you think the United States is in a precarious position now or not?

[Rob O'Neill]

No, I think the United States is exactly where it wants to be. I think the United States has deterrence and the flexibility behind it.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, lots of back and forth in the context of Iran, but also overall between the US And Europe about the role of NATO, the contributions to NATO. If you could just start from scratch and design NATO, what would it look like?

[Rob O'Neill]

That's a tough one right now because. I would step out of it and I would let them handle the invasion. They've already given themselves. If I was in charge, I would back off and say, there you go. Actions have consequences. So do you deal internally? And then I would look for different. Obviously, you know, we have interests in, in the Europeans, but, but they, they've, they've really been taking advantage of us for a long, long time. And with their political correctness and being overrun right now, I'd let them deal with that. So I, I, I'd be more concerned with, enter with, with continents of Purdue, so especially places like Venezuela and places in Africa that, that would be where my alliance would be because it's the Western hemisphere versus the Eastern. The end game is preventing China from winning the AI war, if that's where we're at. That involves invading Taiwan. So we're more interested in the Iranian oil and the Venezuelan oil than climate change in Europe.

[Mark Halperin]

What would you do with the American forces that are currently in Europe?

[Rob O'Neill]

I would draw down there. Yeah, that one. I wasn't sure if we're talking Middle east or NATO drawdown. Yeah, I would definitely draw them down now.

[Mark Halperin]

Completely.

[Rob O'Neill]

Not completely, but I mean, that's a lot of bases over there.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. What's the purpose of having anybody there in Britain or in Germany? What's the purpose? What purpose would it serve to leave any there?

[Rob O'Neill]

I mean, I'm assuming it's for the, you know, for forward defense as far as nuclear defense against Russia. That's probably the point there. I'm not sure. I mean, again, other people making these decisions.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. Lastly, you know, the President's asking for a big defense buildup and obviously AI is scrambling everything. Drones is scrambling everything. What are the sort of fundamentals, do you think, of the future of warfare as it pertains to the Pentagon? What are the things that will matter most in the next 510 years for defending the United States.

[Rob O'Neill]

Cyber warfare, I think is probably the biggest one just based on the way AI is rewriting code. The way that general artificial intelligence is, is getting here faster than we anticipated. Even when you have AI check on AI, it recognizes each other and helps fool you. So I think a cyber war, I'm not predicting Terminator, but that's. It is, it is crazy that every day we think closer to that the AI and then as far as human on human, I think it's going to be the drone warfare, which unfortunately AI comes with that too. Even, even looking at lines in TSA right now, when you're getting on an airport, that's just for you to look at because if anyone wants to take an aircraft down, it's gonna be with a drone. Even trench warfare has gotten different. It's not even as advanced as World War I because you can't leave the house because drones attack you. So it's definitely changing. I'm to a point now where I'm glad we only had the drones we had when I fought. And they were big ones that were flown by the Air Force, not ones you can buy anywhere now. So yeah, electronic warfare, robots, drones, all that fun stuff. I'm not trying to sound very morbid. I'm actually enjoying talking with you.

[Mark Halperin]

Who's the best Pentagon secretary of your lifetime and why?

[Rob O'Neill]

Pete Hexaf. That's not just because he's a friend. He is a friend of mine. I was saying for years before he was even picked that we really need a mid level officer with combat experience that played a college sport because he'd been in combat with troops that are there right now and in college sport means he worked his butt off to get to where he is. And he understands, not he being Pete, but the, the person understands how hard work will pay off. And when you're with the team, it doesn't matter who gets credit as long as we win. And Pete did fill all those. And you know, I worked with Pete at Fox News. I didn't even realize I was talking about him at the time. But I think he's doing a bang up job. Anytime SEC war will show up PT with the troops. And he just knocked out 315 on the bench press right there. The way he looks, the way he sounds, he doesn't back down. And he's, you know, he's articulate, he's got Ivy League. So that. Not that it matters to him, but I think that's a good check in the, a good box checked right there too. So I think Pete right now is knocking out of the park as far as the especially since the fluid environment we're in with this fifth, sixth generation warfare that we're in.

[Mark Halperin]

You're generous to include the Ivy League is counting as college sports. So thank you for that.

[Rob O'Neill]

You know what, what impressed me about being there too was how they said he was known for busting his ass just to make the travel team. That says something that's, that's really cool.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, yeah. Rob O', Neill, former SEAL Team 6 operator and the host of his great podcast the Operator drops every Wednesday. Rob, grateful to you for coming to next. All right, that's it for today's show. We'll be back on Thursday with a brand new episode. Subscribe now to Next Up Everywhere. You get your podcast and on YouTube so you always know what's coming next up.