← Next Up with Mark Halperin
Next Up with Mark Halperin
The Real Story About the Nationwide Political Power Shift, and Inside the Dem 2025 Winning Playbook
01:24:53
Mark Halperin kicks off Thursday’s episode with his reported monologue with new buzzy information on the fallout from the 2025 elections — and how the results are already reshaping both parties’ strategies for the midterms and 2028. He reveals how Democrats won back key Trump voters and how figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, Wes Moore, and Josh Shapiro are using those wins to build momentum. Mark also breaks down the high-stakes Trump–Mamdani showdown — and what it signals about the shifting balance of power nationwide. Then, political power players Doug Sosnik, former advisor to President Clinton, and Republican strategist Kristin Davison join Mark for an inside look at the Democrats’ 2025 winning playbook — and why it’s forcing the GOP to rethink its midterm strategy. Plus, they share their list of names to watch as Democrats sharpen their plan to reclaim power and narrow the field of 2028 frontrunners to the ones who are most capable of taking on the MAGA mach...
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Angelsoft Soft and strong. Welcome in nexters. Thank you for joining us today. A big week with an election on Tuesday night. And now looking forward to both the midterms and the presidential. So we're going to tell you here everything that's coming next up in American politics, government in the Donald Trump era and the post Donald Trump era. I'm Mark Alperin, editor in chief of Live Interactive Video Platform, two Way Editor and your host here, bringing you all my exclusive reporting. I've talked to a lot of strategists in both parties this week about what happened on Tuesday and what happens next. And of course, we'll fill you in on everything. Joining us today later in the program, two great strategists, two of the best, Kristen Davidson, a Republican, and Doug Sosnik, a Democrat. They've worked at the highest levels of American politics. They're both extremely thoughtful about what happened and what happens next. And we'll talk to them about all of that in in just a bit. But first, my new report. After doing a lot of reporting on the results of Tuesday and what it all means, and I want to talk to you about it on a couple levels. First of all, what it means in terms of the President Trump and the Republicans and how they're now thinking about going forward. Second, about 2028, because I think this week watching how different leading potential Democratic nominees for president performed is incredibly instructive. The most instructive moment we've had because so many of the leading possibilities were out and about either participating directly like Gavin Newsom in California or commenting on what happened. We'll walk through some of some of what they did and what I'm hearing from the strategists and politicians and donor class about who's well positioned now to be the Democratic nominee. And then A story that I'm just so interested in. I'm interested in it as a New Yorker. I'm interested as a reporter. I'm interested as a student of humanity. The relationship growing, evolving, complicated between Donald Trump and the mayor elect of Gotham City of New York, son Ramdommi. So interesting what's occurred from Tuesday night through now between the two of them. Not directly. They haven't met, they haven't spoken, according to both men, but they're both talking about the other guy in ways that I find super interesting and super instructive. It's not just a great human story, but it's about the. The relationship between the president and his hometown. It's also about how the Democratic Party is going to be defined. Mamdani is. I've said this before. He's like Donald Trump in so many ways, stylistically, tactically. But they both inspire such strong emotion. I've never seen anyone I can remember inspiring strong emotion. And this is how it goes. People I know who are thoughtful and serious people are, on the one hand delighted about mom dying. Just think, this is so great on so many levels. They're excited about his election, just as I knew people like that who were excited about Donald Trump's election in 2016 and then again in 2024. But I also know people who are thoughtful, serious people who are devastated by his election. Many of them live in New York City, some Jewish American, some not devastated. And you see the manifestations of those two polls. Again, just like with Donald Trump, on social media, you see positive memes about Mamdani that are just inspirational and lovely and psychedelic in a good way. And then you see just brutal, brutal things. And I'm going to talk about their relationship and about why it is. I've been asking people all week, why do they both inspire this kind of feeling? So we'll talk about that. And then again, we'll be joined by Doug and Kristen and have that conversation. But first, let me start with the election. Pretty unanimous amongst Republican strategists. Some people who aren't spinning might say otherwise, but pretty unanimous that this is a devastating night for Republicans. Lost ground in these two states. They're blue states, but the margin of victories for the Democratics at the top of the ticket, the two now governors elect in Virginia and New Jersey, Spanberger and Sheryl. The margins were huge. But undergirding those margins is the demographics and the geography that's so important. One of the really devastating impacts for the Democrats of Donald Trump's victory just a year ago was his success encroaching on what had been part of the Democratic base, on the one hand, suburban voters. But both Sheryl and Spranberger did extraordinarily well with suburban voters. And that's the ultimate battleground. We slice and dice the electorate in so many ways, but it's the suburban vote that's so important. But also with what used to be thought of as Barack Obama's coalition of the ascendant, which Donald Trump did extremely well with in 2024 powering his victory, we're talking about younger voters, talking about young men of color, Hispanic and black men in particular, and then young women as well as and Donald Trump's encroachments there were extremely important and then geographic, not just suburbs, but Donald Trump made massive gains in counties all over the country as compared to how he did in 2020 versus 2024. All that wiped out to a large extent in New Jersey and Virginia. It's not a national election, but then you had Democratic victories in California and the ballot measure for redistricting, Democratic victory in Pennsylvania for the state Supreme Court. In statewide offices in Georgia, two Democrats got elected to statewide office in Georgia, first time in a long time outside of the Senate races. That again, even Republicans are not denying. This is part of a national pattern of unhappiness with President Trump and the Republican brand, as Doug Sosnik will discuss with and wrote in his new memo about the election. Politics used to be Tip o' Neill said all politics is local, all politics now is national. And so when there's a national repudiation, you saw it also down ballot in Virginia, where the controversial attorney general candidate for the Democrats won, where they took legislative seats. When you see that, you know there's something going on. And what's going on is President Trump's brand is at in some polls in its lowest but but not successful enough to stave off what was a big Democratic win. Again, you expect that the year after a presidential when the Republicans win the White House, you expect that in blue purple states like Virginia and New Jersey. But the night was so big for the Democrats that, as I said, acknowledgement even by the White House itself. James Blair, the White House deputy political director or deputy chief of staff, who's the de facto pledge director, even acknowledgement there, they need to do a better job doing what Mamdani did so well with the two Democratic gubernatorial candidates did, which is talking about affordability, lots of other issues discussed in this race. But economics is always going to be king, always going to be the most important issue, and right now, people are not feeling great about the economy. Now, the president is in a bit of a pickle here politically, and we'll see this play out into the rest of this year, the state of the union early next year. And then the midterms. It's the same problem that bedeviled Joe Biden, Every president in my career. And going back further, if the economy's people aren't feeling great about the economy, regardless of what the statistics say, regardless how do you talk about it. Now, President Trump's case, he thinks the economy is better than he's being given credit for, but he doesn't want to sound out of touch. And so the White House now is trying to figure out how does he talk about his current record, what he's expecting to come up without feeling, seeming like he's out of touch. Housing. He's right that some prices are down. And he's right that beef is still high, but housing is still out of control. Housing prices, whether you rent, whether you buy, whether you want to buy. So many young people disillusioned and say they'll never be able to buy a home. So fundamental for so long for the American dream. So the president is trying to figure out how to talk about this. And like all presidents who face a tough race, you know, famously, George Bush acknowledged it after his midterm loss in his second midterm. Same with Barack Obama. We talked about shellacking. Donald Trump's not one to acknowledge huge defeat. So he's been doing, he's, he's done remarks several times since the election on Tuesday. And this is a sound bite from him that I think is representative of the tone he's trying to strike. A little bit of misdirection, doesn't want to take on the full blame. Here's Donald Trump talking about his view that the shutdown that's still ongoing was a factor in the election. This is F6, please.
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What last night represented and what we should do about it. And also about the shutdown and how that relates to last night. I think if you read the pollsters or the shutdown was a big factor, negative for the Republicans, and that was a big factor. And they say that I wasn't on the ballot was the biggest factor, but I don't know about that, but I was honored that they said that.
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So what is happening? What's happening is that people are unhappy with the party out of power now, or party in power rather. But also, Democrats raised more money, they had better candidates that's factor, too. But the White House has to focus on that. But for the president, the White House operation, the president's advisors say he needs to talk more about the economy. He's not going to be running for president in 26, in 2028. Right. But a lot of Democrats are eyeing this now. And the lesson for them is how do you get yourself in the conversation? What do people want to see? They want to see toughness. They want to see fight against Donald Trump because the people who are ascendant in the party now, people whose political influence is rising. Mamdani takes the fight to Donald Trump. AOC takes the fight to Donald Trump. Increasingly, people talking about her as a presidential candidate. And then, of course, Gavin Newsom, who built his entire year in the last few months around a big bet to quickly get this ballot measure on the ballot and let Californians vote to get into the fight over redistricting. Newsom made a big bet and he won. So as I said, I'm interested in what the people who might run for president 2028 have said since Election Day. We've been tracking it closely stylistically, their emphasis on issues and how they're talking about Donald Trump. I want to look at some of those with you and appraise them and tell you what I'm hearing about their chances. First is Westmore, governor of Maryland. He made the rounds on election day and around the election. He also now is talking about getting back into the redistricting fight to maybe in Maryland they've got one Republican seat, maybe try to take that away. Here's Wes Moore with Anderson Cooper on CNN. This is S2, please. We don't just want to hear lip service. We want to hear real pathways to work and wages and wealth. And we need a Democratic Party that stops getting out of the focus of no and slow and starts getting into the focus of yes and now. And really making sure that young men are, are actually part of the conversation and not just subjects of the conversation. And that's why I think you're seeing a real level of momentum in states all around the country now. He's a pretty soft spoken guy, but you see there, I think an effort to amp things up, to be a little bit more urgent in his tone and this issue of appealing to young men so important for the party because in the last election they got beaten badly with the brocasts and wrestling, all these thematics that cause young men in large numbers disillusioned with the Democratic brand and with Biden Harris to vote for Donald Trump, Wes Moore is a young man, relatively young man for politics. He's talking about it, but does he have the capacity to appeal there? Now, on the other hand, the Republicans have a problem with young women. Both the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, Cheryl, and in Virginia, they both did incredibly well with young women. I mean, like staggering well, like 70% well. So Democrats need to figure out how to keep that going for 2026 and 2028. But Westmore, putting his finger on there, I think that we'll see if he runs. He says he's not going to, but most people I talked to this week say, yeah, he's out there, he wants to run. And Wes Moore is drawn the attention of some folks who say he's the one, he's the choice a lot of donors are interested in. Wes Moore, another person who's out there this week who's gotten more attention in my world from particularly the donor community, is someone who was a hot prospect before Governor Shapiro, Pennsylvania. He came out on election night, touted very much the victory that they had. The way the Supreme Court works there, that had to be a vote to say, do you want to retain these three liberal Democratic Supreme Court justices in the state for another term? They all won. They all were renewed for another term. And Shapiro was out talking about that. He's also done a lot of media and again, like Wes Moore, stylistically, he's not a pugnacious guy. He's not a fighter. He's not the kind of guy to sort of talk trash about Donald Trump. But like Wes Moore seems to me pretty clear in his media appearances, Shapiro is trying to step it up. He's trying to be in the game, which is right now, I'd say close to the only game in town. You got to be in Donald Trump's grill here. Shapiro, this week after the election, from Morning Joe, this is S15, please.
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I think it's going to be on governors and attorneys general to ensure that when voters go to the polls that the will of the people will be respected. I'm confident in our abilities to stand up to Donald Trump, stand up for the rule of law. But make no mistake, he. He's coming for your freedoms. He is coming to undermine our democracy. He's made no bones about the fact that he wants to rig the process going forward and we have to stand tall. I think we can do that. We can both deliver for the people we serve and protect our democracy.
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All right. Again, very similar to Moore, mild mannered by inclination, pretty conciliatory by inclination, but clearly Trying to be in that sweepstakes to say I can take it to Donald Trump. We'll see those guys right now. I grouped them together because they, they'll need to build an apparatus, they'll need to build up their, their, their team, they'll need to build up their travel, they'll need to really take some steps beyond being the anti Trump sweepstakes if they want to be serious candidates. Two other guys talked this week. I consider them to be kind of in the insider category. Put Moore and, and Shapiro in the donor favorite governor category. These are two guys who aren't governors. They aren't in elective office right now so they don't have that built in platform. But the insiders talk about them more than voters do. They don't have big numbers in the polls in most cases. In some cases a Buddha judge does. He's one. Pete Buttigieg and Rahm Emanuel, these guys are very sharp. They're very good politicians. They could be and have been campaign managers. They know how to run things in terms of the nitty gritty of politics. Both media savvy and both willing to go out there and mix it up with Trump. But again less more pugnacious than Moore and Shapiro. But they're, but they're trying to figure out where's their lane. Both more interested in policy than most people who run for president. First, here's Pete Buttigieg being a little feisty. You'll see. You'll hear here S5 Pete Buttigieg talking about the election results on a social media post. Democratic candidates won by focusing on the basics of everyday life, especially the cost of living. And that focus, that discipline paid off. Secondly, there is clearly a stink to being associated with Donald Trump, something that Republicans in office need to think about when they're deciding whether to rubber stamp his destructive actions. And in the months ahead, this is going to be a huge issue for the midterms. Donald Trump did not campaign in Virginia or in New Jersey for these folks. He did some tele town hall stuff but he didn't go in in person. And now we're waiting to see what he does in the midterms. And Buttigieg, very aggressive. They're using the word stink saying, you know, Trump is going to be an albatross. We'll see. Buttigieg is interesting. He can raise some money. He can raise some money but that tone comes very natural to him. More than the other two, I'd say. But let's see how he steps it up. And then Rahm Emanuel, former mayor of Chicago, former congressman, former Obama White House chief of staff, former ambassador to Japan, still remains an insider candidate, unlike Buttigieg, who did well in a recent New Hampshire poll. Emanuel is not showing up in the polls, but insiders talk about him. He's a CNN political analyst, so he's got a regular perch there. And he's trying to figure out whether he can be seen as a credible candidate, as a strong candidate, even though he's not well known, even though, again, he's more of an insider than a national figure. Here's Rahm Emanuel on CNN talking about the election results and Mondami S11 please.
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Everywhere you're going, Democrats are outperforming in that area. So I look, do I get what the White House wants to do in the sense of making Mandami the face of the party? But this is a repudiated because when they look in the mirror, it's a repudiation of the president. That's what they're trying to avoid the story to be.
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All right, so I put those guys in the category of they got to figure out where's their lane. But they're both going to be willing to go hard after Trump. I don't think either of them feels any restraint. Okay, now the two hottest candidates of the week, the two people who this election on Tuesday most elevated in terms of political momentum are AOC Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, congresswoman here in New York City, and Gavin Newsom, 3,000 miles apart. Not typically thought of as being part of the same wing of the party, but they are now the resistance par excellence. They are now associated with an election that Democrats say spring in our step, ability to raise money, get volunteers, show we can take it to Donald Trump. AOC did that by being a huge backer of Mamnani and a huge spokesperson now for what is going to be a massive theme in 2028 for the Democrats, which is turn the page. Do you want a candidate who's older and has been around and a traditional politician, or do you want someone younger? I have not been as someone who's seen AOC's time as 2028 as much as some, but I was super impressed with her appearances this week. She made the rounds on cable news on election night and she is talking about the new generation of leadership, not just in the context of Mamdani, but in general, with a clear eye, if not for herself, for the party on 2028. Here she is on CNN also on election night.
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That the Democratic Party cannot.
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Last much longer by denying the future.
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But by trying to undercut our young.
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By trying to undercut a next generation of diverse and upcoming Democrats that have the parties, the actual party that are.
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Actual electorate and voter support.
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I'm going to be super interesting to see how she conducts herself now in the context of New York City and in the context of 2028 or 2026 rather than there's other folks we've seen so far. They'll be welcome to raise money for people to go to fundraisers. They'll be welcome to campaign for a lot of candidates in 2026. Will she be campaigning for folks, and will she be campaigning only for folks on the left of the party, or will people want her in who are more moderate? And will she use her capacity to raise money online for other people in 2026? If she sends out a fundraising email for a House candidate or a Senate candidate and it brings in serious money, that'll be a sign to folks that she's potent, because that fundraising is not just the cash dollars that go into the accounts. It's grassroots. It's the ability to mobilize people. And that is an extremely important part of this factor. And obviously she's not at all shy about taking it to President Trump. The big winner of the week, though, for 2028 is Gavin Newsom, who has built up, he took this big risk. Could he pass this ballot measure on short notice, raised a lot of money, built up his fundraising list. He now has an incredibly oppressive ability to go online using his social media game, which he's been at for longer than almost anybody in politics. Saw early on, the power of social media to organize and inspire, raise money, get their email addresses, their, their phone numbers, and, and he had a big victory. And he's come out and he's, he's found his voice. I think he's always been an underrated communicator, but for the Democratic Party now he's found his voice. As the person who's looking to beat Donald Trump on immigration, on redistricting, on any fight, he can have listen to a couple things. This is him after the victory of Proposition 50 on redistricting. From election night. This is S9. Please.
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Instead of agonizing over the state of our nation, we organized in an unprecedented way in a 90 day sprint, people from all over the United States of America contribute their voices and their support for this initiative. We stood tall and we stood firm in response to Donald Trump's recklessness.
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I mean, it sounds like he's a Presidential candidate. Right. He's saying we need to organize as a party and as a country against Donald Trump. That's the message the party wants to hear now. That's the message that fueled so much of their success on Tuesday night. Here's one more sound bite from Newsom from, from his celebration after the ballot measure passed this S10.
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Please let me underscore it's been a good evening for everybody, not just the Democratic Party, but what a night for the Democratic Party, a party that is in its ascendancy, a party that's on its toes, no longer on its heels, from coast to coast, sea to shining sea.
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So we'll see as Spanberger and Sheryl, the gubernatorial winners, they're going to be in the discussion about potential presidential or vice presidential slots in 2028. And Mamdani, we'll talk about him in a moment. He'll be discussed. But right now, Newsom has done an extraordinarily important thing. He's become the embodiment for a lot of Democrats, not just in California, but around the country, of someone who is in sync with the mood of the party and taking advantage of what happened on Tuesday. Because again, even my Republican sources will tell you this was a shot in the arm for Democrats. This was a moment, their best moment since Donald Trump's reelection a year ago. Their best moment to say, we can, we can turn this thing around. We can become a party that's not demoralized. We can become a party that can face down Donald Trump and we can come a party that has a vision for how to win the midterms and then how to win in 2028. Extremely important presidential election for the Democratic Party. Not wanting the Republicans to get another term because of what it would say about a validation of Donald Trump's presidency. And Newsom's become the embodiment of that. From a thematic point of view, from a narrative point of view, incredibly important week for him if he decides to run. As you know, I'm still a little skeptical he'll go into the race and stay in it, but if he does, he's got fundraising capacity, social media game, a team around him that's actually very experienced, maybe significantly better in terms of experience and size and trust in him than any of the other people we've talked about here. Have most of them have smaller teams and less experienced teams. And then finally, he's comfortable now, even on the west coast, where it's harder to get more coverage, he's comfortable getting media coverage. He knows how to do it he gets enough to stay in the game and that positions him very well. So in one way, a long way off, but in another way, as we head into the new year, just a few weeks, how these people who want to be considered as a potential president, potential Democrat nominee in 2028, how they think about positioning themselves to raise money for other candidates to campaign, for other candidates to be in the conversation about Donald Trump. And they sense weakness in Donald Trump. They look at his poll numbers, they look at the election results. They look at his emphasis up until now on talking less about affordability and more about national security, foreign policy. They look at this as a moment of weakness for Donald Trump. Now, they've seen weakness in Donald Trump for 10 years and he's beaten them at the White House two out of three times. But they believe now they can be on the march. And in the case of Newsom, he can constantly point to this, constantly point to say something was on the line, control the House of Representatives. I didn't, I didn't sit there and bemoan what Trump was doing and the Republicans were doing. I got in the game. I raised 100 million or so for this ballot measure and I got it done. So we've said before here, is he the first tier? Maybe he is. Is he the first tier by himself and by a lot today after this week, I say yes. All the other people we talked about here and some others have the potential, have the potential to be up there and to compete with him if he does run. But today, based on the results of this week, being anti Trump, having a proven record, having the rhetoric to say I can get up in the face of Donald Trump and beat him, Gavin Newsom's the winner of that. All right, next up, I'm going to talk about the other big winner of the week. 3,000 miles away from California, Zoran Mamdani is now going to be facing down Donald Trump on a regular basis. It appears that complicated relationship is Next up. Don't go away. 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Right now go to vapor technology.org to learn more about the organization and why they are leading the charge to support American innovation in this sector. And if you get there and their mission appeals to you, consider becoming a member again. That's vapor technology.org and when you get there and they ask, tell them you heard about all this on NEXT up. All right, next up is another question about confronting Donald Trump. Gavin Newsom, confronting Donald Trump and winning. Mr. Mandani also confronting Donald Trump made huge hay as part of his end game message about Trump's basic support for Andrew Cuomo. And Mandani is not afraid of Donald Trump. Impressive. Just as a political gladiator standing up to Donald Trump. And he took him on on election night in his very pugnacious remarks. Here's a bit of what he said about Donald Trump in his victory speech as 12 please.
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So Donald Trump, since I know you're watching, I have four words for you. Turn the volume up now.
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The president was watching, according to the White House, and he's been talking in interviews and other comments about Maidani since Election Day. What's been fascinating to me is while both of them have said things that are pretty confrontational, they both have also had moments of calm and graciousness about the other one. Pretty surprising in the context of again, the currency in the party now. But Mamdani must know and should know that he's gonna need Trump. Trump's threatening to cut off aid of all sorts to New York City, but it's also in the context of doing the big job he's about to do. Being at daily war with Donald Trump may not seem ideal to him. So listen to a little bit. Election night is very confrontational. Here he is being less confrontational. This is Mondami speaking, not election Day, but the day after. This is S14, please tools that have.
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Been proven to protect those same New Yorkers. And I will not mince my words when it comes to President Trump. I will continue to describe his actions as they are. And I will also always do so while leaving a door open to have that conversation because it cannot be understood as if it is an argument between two individuals. I am looking to lead this entire city and everything that I do must be to the benefit of this city. And I look forward to delivering for that same city.
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So that's pretty, pretty conciliatory, right? It's pretty conciliatory. Now, Trump also has been hot and cold. Sometimes he's been conciliatory and sometimes less so. Here he is reaching out a bit in interview with Brett Baer. Well, I should say in this soundbite, he's reaching out maybe a tiny bit. Brett is asking him, should, should you call Mamdani? Should maybe call, congratulate him, maybe reach out? That's something a president might do under some circumstances. Trump maybe halfway. Listen to this. This is S1, please.
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Did you see reaching out to him? I would say he should reach out to us. Really? I think he should reach out. I'm here, we'll see what happens. But I would think that it would be more appropriate for him to reach out to us.
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Now, he didn't say when Brett says, should you reach out to him? He didn't say what I call a communist. You know, would I call someone who's going to destroy the city? He didn't. So I consider that to be pretty conciliatory. And then another moment. The president since Election Day said he hopes the city succeeds. He said, now, maybe I don't care if Mamdani succeeds, but I want the city to succeed. I am fascinated about where this is going. It's going to be no doubt that unless Mamdani is a huge success right off the bat, and maybe he will be. I hope he is for the sake of the city. You're going to hear Democrats or Republicans rather, including the president and his team, refer to him as a, you know, a communist and as ruining the city. But at the same time, just as Mamdani needs Trump, he needs federal aid and he needs not to be at war with the president on a daily basis. Trump cares a lot about New York City, in part because he's from here and he's got pride in the city and would hate to see the city ruined. But he also has a lot of financial interests here and he has a lot of financial interests amongst his friends in New York City. They own real estate, they own businesses, they send their kids to school here. Trump doesn't want New York to fail, even if there'd be a political gain there. And he knows that, you know, you got to make accommodations. I know Trump well enough to know that he'd like there to be a good outcome. Mamdani is a mystery to me. And as I said in the beginning, I just, I know people who are terrified of him, they don't just think he's going to be a bad mayor. They're terrified of him. Some of it's about Israel and a bad Jews, but some the of some of it is socialism. And I think Trump wants to see what happens. Trump loves a great story. Trump loves interesting human arcs. And this is a great story. It's a great story for journalists. And in that sense, Trump has a sensibility of a journalist, like, how's this guy gonna do? How's he gonna govern? How much social media is he gonna do? Who's he gonna hire? What kind of presence will he be in the city? What will he do on national security issues, which is a huge billion dollar budget in this city? Trump and Mamdani are on a path to something. They're going to have a relationship. I think after watching it from election night forward, despite harsh words from both men, I'm focused more on the conciliatory language. I'm focused more on the reality that Trump, despite what he said and during the end of the election, he's got a stake. He's got a stake in Mamdani being successful mayor. And Mamdani, despite his confrontation with Trump throughout the campaign and on election night, he's got a stake in getting help from the federal government. And although neither of these guys, although both these guys now will be in elective office, neither of them is a career politician. Neither of them behaves in a way a normal politician would. But both of them now have a stake in a good relationship. They have a motivation to have a working relationship. They also have a motivation to use the other one as a foil for mom. Donnie. The energy in the Democratic Party, as we said last block, is about confronting Trump. For Trump, having the ability to say, forget everything that happened in the 2025 election. Just focus on the fact that the face of the Democratic Party is about being a communist, right? So it's a paradox. They both have a stake in demonizing the other one. They both have a clear political advantage in demonizing the other one. And yet they both have a stake in getting along. They both have a stake in that. And I talked to a bunch of people around both men about, about this, and it's interesting because some people see both, both needs, but a lot of the people I talked to said, oh, no, it's all about confrontation. And it wasn't necessarily that they were the ideological ones. They just think the, the confrontation side of the ledger for both men is so much more important, so much more valuable. Trump always needs a Villain. Trump always needs a foe. He always needs some sort of a person to play off of. And for Mamdani, he needs to be the resistance. He needs to have the energy that he harnessed during the campaign. So maybe those folks will be right. But I also talk to folks who inform my view and as do their public statements. They have a stake. They have an incentive to get along as well. Now, Trump doesn't live here, but he comes here. The orchestration of their first meeting, my spidey sense says no one's told me this. My spidey sense says their first meeting could happen sooner than we think and that that first meeting could be conciliatory. Trump respects game. Trump respects people who succeed. And take away Mondami's rhetoric about Trump, take away his. His left positions, take away his inexperience as a negative. What a story. Just as a journalist, as I said, what a story that this guy is now going to be the mayor of New York City when not that long ago, I hadn't heard of him. I cover politics for a living. I hadn't heard of him. Wasn't taken seriously in the primary, becomes a Democratic nominee, and then the billionaires line up against him. The political establishment lines up against him. Chuck Schumer never endorsed him. Hakeem Jeffries endorsed him. At the end of the day, the two top Democratic leaders in Congress, both who live in New York City, and against all of that, he confidently, confidently won this race. Going away. Now, Jamie dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, one of the biggest iconic business leaders in the country, he said very conciliatory things since Election Day, does want to help Mondame succeed. Jamie Dimon just built a giant new office here in Manhattan. He's got thousands of employees in Manhattan. He doesn't want New York City to be hollowed out. Same with Bill Ackman, the billionaire investor who was as vocal about stopping Mandani as anybody during the primary. And then the general same thing. He went on Twitter and said, hey, you know, let's. Let's try to get together those who worry that Mondani is going to ruin New York or worry that he's going to, you know, be a divisive force, they may be right. I wish I could say I know they won't, but they may be right. But watching how Trump treats him, particularly if he has success. And remember, politics is not a game, it's about governing. The guy takes office New Year's Day. That's when New York City mayors start their jobs he takes office on New Year's Day. How's he going to do. How's he going to do when he's actually governing? How is he going to hire the best people? How is he going to keep the city safe? What happens when the first. There's a first snowstorm, the first big crime that's committed? What if there's some big attack on New York City, getting a budget, all these things? If he governs well and he's making the real lives of real people in New York City better, even if his policies are to the far left, I'll be curious to see how Donald Trump handles that, because Trump, as I said, he wants the city to succeed. He doesn't want his real estate, his friends, real estate, businesses, investments of all sorts.
- [38:43]
C
He.
- [38:43]
B
He doesn't want that to go down the drain. And to a large extent, that's now about Mamdani. So foils for sure. Sparring partners for sure. No doubt that particularly on things like immigration, emotions will be raw. They'll both continue to be positive and negative memes about both men on social media. So if they want to get along, there's a lot of standing in the way, but they do have an incentive to get along. It's going to be fascinating to watch, and I'll be curious to see how much Mandani stays as a national story after, you know, this week. He's in a transition. He'll be hiring people. There'll be announcements. But let's be honest, as important as New York City is, that's a local story, and Trump has other things to worry about. And here's the real rub, and this came to me from someone who is a longtime political advisor to President Trump. What is the president's team's message this week? Affordability. Right. We gotta talk more about affordability. We did. Our candidates did poorly on Election Day because they didn't talk about affordability. And Mamdani did as well as the Democratic candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. So if Trump's going to start talking about affordability and Mandani will continue to talk about it and start to institute policies, well, it's going to be an interesting battle, right? It's going to be interesting side by side comparison when they're talking about it, because there's some things they'd agree on, certainly about what the problems are. Right? They'd agree real estate's too expensive to buy a home, rent a home. There's still issues related to education. Right, people. And they both know Mondami talks about it more openly than Trump. They have to address this. They gotta find a way to address this. This is what's on voters minds. The exit polls were clear. This is what's on voters minds. And so I'm looking forward to seeing could we have a competition of ideas? Could we even have some agreements? If Mondami comes up with an idea that works, might Trump help him institute it in New York? Might Trump borrow it? Right. Because right now Mamdani has solved for his electorate, New York City, liberal electorate, Democratic electorate, what Trump is trying to solve for his own electorate, the whole country, which is associate me with a relentless desire to. To help you afford things. That's why Mandani won. Above all else, he's associated with a relentless desire to use government to help people afford things. That's Trump's current mission. And Trump as a student of everything and a student of success, you can bet he'll be watching. How does Mondami go from talking about it to actually doing it? And if he succeeds, you can bet Trump will notice and as I said, maybe steal some of his ideas. All right, that's what I think about those two guys. Next up, we're going to talk about all this, all of these themes, all these issues, all these people with two of the best political strategists I know, Kristen Davison, Republican, Doug Sosnik, Democrat, former top political advisor to Bill Clinton. That's coming right here next up. All right, everybody, some breaking news right here, right off the top beam. Cyber sale is now live for all my listeners and viewers. And that's their best offer of the year. But it's only available for 48 hours. So right now all my listeners get up to 50% off. And use my code Mark. You can grab dream for just 32.50. That breaks down to just A$8 cents per night. For the very best sleep of your Life, go to shopbeam.com mark. Use my promo code Mark, and you won't miss out. This is the lowest price Dream has ever been sold anywhere, and it's likely to sell out quite quickly. So Dream is packed with ingredients your body actually needs to sleep. Reishi, magnesium, L theanine and apitogen, and yes, even melatonin. But dosed intelligently, not like the drugstore garbage that knocks you out and leaves you groggy. Go to shopbeam.com mark. Use the code mark and get up to 50% off. During Cyberbeam sale, you can grab dream again for just 3250. Here's the catch, though, it's only available now at that price until everything sells out. So seriously, think about it. How much would you pay for a truly great night of sleep With Beam Cyber price, it's just a dollar, eight cents per night. Go to shopbeam.com mark and try Beam today. Are you ready to get spicy?
- [43:04]
C
These Doritos Golden Sriracha aren't that spicy.
- [43:07]
A
Maybe it's time to turn up the.
- [43:09]
B
Heat or turn it down. It's time for something that's not too spicy. Try Doritos Golden Sriracha, spicy but not too spicy. All right, next up and joining me now, two great political strategists. There's been a lot of political commentary, particularly if you got cable news between election night and now. And I won't say, I won't say I haven't watched any of it, but none of it's as good as this because these two know more than most, most people you'll see on tv or at least, let's say, at least as much. Kristen Davidson, Republican strategist, has worked with many folks, including Glenn Youngkin, the outgoing governor of Virginia. And Doug Sosnik also worked with many folks, including former President Clinton, for whom he's been a longtime political advisor. Grateful to you both for making time. Thank you for coming here.
- [43:57]
C
Thank you.
- [43:58]
B
Mark, throw this out. Kristen, you first. What's the most important thing that happened on Tuesday night as it, as it relates to the future of American politics and government? Single most important thing.
- [44:11]
A
Oh, man, that's tough. Well, I mean, obviously, having elections and changes of leadership in all these states, that's just historically and for the future of the country, great. But I think that today and the day after, everyone, both parties, we are all talking about focusing on making people's lives better in terms of cost of living, of prices, of how we help average Americans live better lives? I think that's a positive to come out of a win or a loss because that's what we're talking about today and that's what the majority of Americans are worried about.
- [44:42]
B
Doug, the White House deputy chief of staff, effectively the political director, James Blair, said our candidates made a big mistake. They talked about other issues rather than affordability in the economy. How could any candidate not know, any campaign not know that? Of course, the exit polls. You don't need the exit polls to know that's going to be a top issue, the top issue for voters. How does that happen in a campaign?
- [45:05]
C
So first I want to answer your question, and then I'll get to that I think the single most important thing that happened Tuesday night was Democrats proved that they can win elections. There's nothing that succeeds in politics like success. And I do think it was, to some extent, at least on the daily chatter, a circuit breaker so that we're not just Talking about the 2024 election now in the Democratic Party. In terms of your question, it's probably a little ironic that the deputy chief of staff of the President United States would criticize the candidates on Tuesday night for not talking about the economy and affordability when the president of the United States, who has the biggest bully pulpit in the world, never talks about it.
- [45:51]
B
Yeah, I agree with that. It's kind of strange, too. Maybe he was trying to send a message to his boss as well. Just Kristen, pick up on what Doug said about Tuesday. So there's no doubt that winning is great and it changes the storyline and it gives a shot of confidence. People all say there'll be more donations, more volunteers. The big donors will get off the sidelines. Candidate recruitment will be better. Does that all happen for a party after a night like Tuesday, organically and naturally, or is it incumbent now for the Democratic committees to actually start to try to prime the pump off of it?
- [46:24]
A
I think it's probably incumbent on the committees, but also the state leadership. So, you know, we're talking about Congress and the Senate. There are a lot of gubernatorial races next year. I think, you know, leaders in each one of these states really need to step up and help recruit. One question I'd have for Doug, you know, looking at the different candidate recruitment is so important. The Democrats at large, are you going to be recruiting more Abigail Spambergers or more, you know, Zoran Mandamis? I mean, they're two very different. I mean, before they go into the election. I know, you know, Alissa Slotkin in Michigan basically said, that's good for New York, but don't try to tell me how to win here in Michigan. Is that going to be a problem for Democrats or, you know, is there a stream? Because that's the other problem, too. Success sometimes has a lot of fathers. So you're going to have a lot of people in the Democrat Party saying, well, this was AOC's influence. No, this is the resurgence of the Blue Dog Democrats. So how does that now work when everyone's really excited? Does it complicate that mission to recruit more, or is there a clear edict of where the party is going to go in that sense?
- [47:26]
C
Well, having a big tent problem is a good problem to have. Yeah, I would say, first of all and first, I don't think for Democrats Mandami was a good thing for us. So let me just start with that state in the obvious. But I also think that the, you know, there's a genetic problem Republicans have, which is they over they overuse power. And there's a genetic problems Democrats have, which is we always underutilize power. And so I think the Republicans will put way too much focus on Mondavi because I think most people in America don't think New York applies to them and it doesn't really affect their lives. Having said that, it's not a positive for Democrats to have a guy. Let me just say about him for a moment, there's a lot Democrats can learn from him. How he campaigned, his use of social media, his aggressiveness on that. I think he raised a lot of important issues. I don't think he I don't think his solutions are very good. But the thing I found as a Democrat most disheartening from him was the speech he gave Tuesday night when he won. You know, he got 50.4% of the vote, which means half of the city didn't vote for him. And I didn't think that his speech was very gracious and I didn't think he made an effort to try to govern for all of New York.
- [48:54]
B
It was the least gracious victory speech. I think I can remember anybody except Donald Trump giving at some points. And I do think that he's had moments that were more gracious since then, for sure. But let me ask this about Mondame and then I want to talk more generally. He Republicans are clearly going to try to make an issue of I mean, Doug, you said, as many Democrats who are more from the more moderate wing of the party said this is not great. What can Democrats do to keep him from being the face of the Democratic Party? Republicans will try to do it. What can Democrats do to keep him from being, you know, what the Republicans want him to be? Doug first and then Kristen.
- [49:32]
C
Well, he's going to do what he's going to do. He's got to run a city. He's made a lot of promises, not really that I'm aware of, really articulate any kind of plan of how he's going to perform and implement those promises. So he's going to have plenty to do on his own. But let me just say that as someone more from, as you say, the center part of the party, his economic populist message, I think is the right one for the party and that's what we should be talking about. But, but again, I don't think his solutions are necessarily the right ones. And I, and I don't think we should be focusing on the social issues, obviously. But I think affordability and what people care about in their lives, which is what he ran on, is what the Democratic Party should focus on. Yeah.
- [50:21]
B
Kristen, do you expect we'll be talking about him on a regular basis come the new year when he's in office, or he'll recede?
- [50:27]
A
Yeah, I think so. And almost the. To reverse the question. Yes. As Doug I'm worried that Republicans will go too far with it and try to, you know, we did that in some districts, in some races, making Nancy Pelosi a boogeyman works. You know, the same thing with AOC and the squad. You know, that we went hard with it in 2022 in those midterms trying to really, you know, villainize AOC and her colleagues. In some races, it worked, but not in all. And so I fear that we're going to go a little too far and be, you know, I would encourage my Republican colleagues, let's not get lazy and just default onto making him an enemy. I mean, every district is going to be different. And I suspect if he starts out camp, you know, he'll be in civil campaign mindset. He won't do anything too drastic to mess up the party at large. But, you know, to back up to your original question, when you talk about whether it's the parties or, you know, who kind of drives this on the Democrat side, I'm really going to be watching to see which potential 2028 candidate steps up. I mean, on election night on Tuesday, I thought Gavin's speech was probably one of the best Gavin Newsom out of anyone. I mean, he looked like a leader. So is he now going to go and use his resources and his efforts and start his own recruitment across the country, start his own, you know, or is it going to be Josh Shapiro or aoc, see who on that side kind of emerges as being the party leader. The Democrats are going to have a moment now where if I'm, you know, running Gavin Newsom's operation, I say, okay, let's go get our super pack up and running. Let's go pick 20 candidates we're going to support in 2026, and let's go to the wall for them to make sure they're going to win. That's, I think, you know, the dynamic that Democrats will have that Republicans won't necessarily have this time. Around and it's going to be really interesting to watch because it's going to show where that party, where the Democrat Party is shifting in terms of where they're going to be both in 26 and then in 28.
- [52:17]
C
Well, they I think increasingly civilians, normal people, when they see stuff like Republicans running ads against the mayor in New York, increasingly they have a little buzzer that goes off that says, oh, this is just politics crap. They tune it out. The other thing is though, that I suspect that they're going to spend a lot of time using him next year because first of all, Trump doesn't do anything but base oriented messaging and midterm elections are all about turning out your base. So I think they're going to, I think they're going to find it irresistible to not make him a central issue to try to get their base out to vote.
- [52:55]
B
Yeah, Doug writes memos every few months that are singular in America because he brings all to bear all of his experience and clarity and fair mindedness about where things stand and, and doesn't isn't afraid to write if the Democrats have a problem. You can, you can get see the memo if you go to my substack Wide World of News if you want to linked to the latest one. And Doug, just as we finish up this block, the midterms explain why just because Democrats did well on Tuesday doesn't necessarily mean they'll take back the House majority.
- [53:27]
C
Well, we've gone through a historic transition in American politics and it's based on something that began actually long before Donald Trump ran for president, which is education levels now the best predictor of how people are going to vote. And that really first showed up in politics in the early 90s with the Perot campaign. And Trump's victory in 2016 in his presidency really solidified that education is now the new fault line in American politics. If you know the educational level of a voter, you have a pretty good idea how they're going to vote. And so it as a result of that, we go by historical standards of president's job approval and all these other kind of metrics to predict the outcome of the midterms next year. And they're no longer valid because of how politics has changed. And so I and so there's so they're only right now in the most recent Cook Political Report, there are only 37 House districts they consider competitive, 37 out of 435. So it means 90% of members of the House are more vulnerable to lose a primary than a general election. So where I'm most confident right now as a Democrat about the midterms next year is the political environment that we're going to be operating in. I think Trump will have the lowest job approval of any president in history. All the economic science suggests to me that it get worse in the next 11 months, not better. But the challenge for Democrats is how are we able to, to translate this great political environment to overcome the structural challenges we have right now to benefit politically? I mean, we have 35 Senate races up. The Democrats are defending 22 seats. But right now there are only six races that are considered competitive because of how the education levels are driving the outcome. Just to give you one last statistic, 80% of the counties in this country, the winning presidential candidates margin in 2024 is more than 20 points.
- [55:33]
B
That's incredible. That's just incredible.
- [55:35]
C
So the challenge for Democrats are going to be how can we expand the pool of competitive races to take advantage of what I think will be a great blue wave environment.
- [55:44]
B
Yeah. So say it in a slightly different way. The size of the wave to put more seats in play would have to be massive because the next range of seats after those 37 are very red. And you'd have to overcome extraordinary, that extraordinary hurdle.
- [55:59]
C
I mean, you've got Clinton is job approval on the election day of 94 was, I think around 7 points, 8 points higher than Trump's right now. And the Republicans took back the Congress for the first time since the early 1950s, won 54 House seats. So if you just use that as a metric, and if Trump's job approval stays the same, then the Democrats should pick up 80 House seats.
- [56:26]
A
Right.
- [56:27]
B
But, but they'd have to, they'd have to win races in districts that are out of reach. Kristen, who's the favorite to win House control in November next year? Or is it too soon to say?
- [56:36]
A
I think it's too soon to say. I think, you know, the one point on presidential approval, I will say President Trump has push the norms of everything that we normally would talk about in terms of political, you know, trends and history. His approval could be low. And I still don't think it necessarily translates, although sometimes it'll translate to a, you know, a down ballot Republican and just not him. So we'll see how that goes. I think the shutdown is going to be extremely important, how this all wraps up and who is seen as being the problem solver. If somehow Republicans, we don't appear to be the ones who are the adults that come to the table and solve the problem and get everything back up and running and get cost down, then I think we really do risk losing seats that we otherwise wouldn't have learned. The one thing from Tuesday that I thought was interesting and just not necessarily take too much out of it, but a little bit of a caution is that education break, actually the Democrats want a little bit more non college educated than I think Harris had or Democrats had in the past. So this affordability issue that we are all talking about, we are all focused on the cost of living is, you know, both parties are going to race here to make sure, you know, either Republicans maintain it as the issue that we are more trusted on or Democrats have an opportunity to drive a wedge to try to appeal some of those working class voters back. I don't know if the candidates will be, the Democrat candidates will be able to do, but we'll see. You know, we've only had three other off years, you know, 1993, 2005 and I think 2009, where one party took Jersey and Virginia and then went on to go get the House. So we're kind of in very, very rare territory here. And you know, I would say that the shutdown and who, which party really holds onto that cost of living message will be the one to win next year. I just don't know which one that'll be.
- [58:20]
C
Well, two things. First of all, the problem which Trump raised on Wednesday actually with great pride was the reason Republicans did poorly was because he wasn't on the.
- [58:31]
B
Yeah.
- [58:31]
C
And so I think that's a big issue. The other though is because we're out of power. All we got to do is like, you know, put a, like pass the laugh test plan on the economy because no one is holding us responsible for the economy because we're not in charge of anything.
- [58:51]
B
Right.
- [58:51]
C
So the Republicans are going to own the economy. And I think we're way past the point at this now. You know, remember the secretary treasury said this week that some sectors of our economy are already in recession, but we are now past the point where Trump can't blame Biden for the state of the economy.
- [59:11]
B
Yeah. A testament to Scott Besson's magical powers that he didn't take heat for saying some part of the economy's in recession.
- [59:19]
C
I was, he's too big to fail now. He's like lifeline. They've got like Wall street and you know, if he went out, they'd be stuck with Lutnick. And you imagine what that would be like.
- [59:29]
B
Yeah. Or, or a Democrat for some reason.
- [59:32]
A
Survive that Democrats do risk that, I will say, even though Republicans would own the economy, Democrats risk what, what they made the mistake in 24 of not paying enough attention to it. So that was one of Trump's most effective message, that, you know, saying Harris cares about these culture wars. She doesn't care about your, your bank account. Democrats, especially with, you know, when you get radical, very, very far left candidates, they risk talking about things that people don't care, care about. I think we saw some of that on Tuesday in the opposite direction. But I mean, that's the Democrat risk, is that they don't give it enough attention. They get distracted by, you know, their base issues.
- [60:05]
C
Well, you're right, you're right. But, you know, politics is a lot like fashion. So whatever's hot, everyone wants it. And I don't think there's any Democrat in the world right now off of Tuesday's elections that thinks that they should talk about anything except about affordability. And for, you know, 400 out of 435, 390 out of 435 House races, it doesn't matter who the candidates are. So the only candidates that matter are in these competitive seats. And for the most part, Democrats are not running far left candidates in these 10% of the districts that matter.
- [60:43]
B
Not so far. There's some primaries, but you're right, not so far. We're going to take a quick break. Next up, we're going to talk about what happens when Donald Trump is no longer the dominant figure in America, if that could someday happen. We'll see. That's next up. All right, listen up, everybody. Medicare annual enrollment is now here and it's a big mess. Your mailbox is probably overflowing. Your phone's buzzing with a lot of those robocalls and annoying texts. It's all a bunch of chaos. But this is the one Medicare message right here you can't ignore. Now, here's the deal. Medicare plans change every year. If you're coasting on your current plan, 20, 26 could blindside you. Coverage you rely on could disappear. You need to stay ahead on all this stuff, of course. So that's where chapter comes in. My trusted Medicare partner here at NextUp. Unlike those shady brokers. Yeah, the ones who the Justice Department allegedly sued for chasing kickbacks. Chapter plays it straight. They're the only advisor scouring every plan in the country to ensure that you're not overpaying. On average, they save people who work with them eleven hundred dollars a year. Nobody wants to wade through all this. Mess by themselves. Chapter makes it simple though, under 20 minutes to check your options. If your plan still the best for 2026, they'll confirm that for you. But if there's a better deal, they'll help you make the switch. There's no pressure, no gimmicks, just clear and honest advice. This could be the most important call you make this year. Dial £250 and say chapter Medicare to get peace of mind. Again, that's £250 and say Chapter Medicare.
- [62:15]
D
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- [62:48]
B
All right, back with Kristen and Doug. Doug's memo mentioned earlier again, go to my substack Wide World of News. You can read the whole thing. It's essential if you want to understand the current moment and projecting forward. And Doug posits that something really smart, which is tale of two parties, the Republican Party, completely dominated by one personality, sets the tone, the message. Everybody has to react to him, raises the money. And then on the other side, we've never seen in my memory, at least either party with, with a lack of leaders. And I want to start with the Democratic leaders, Doug Schumer and Jeffries. We don't know how the shutdown is going to end as we're sitting here talking right now. But what's the state of their place in the Democratic Party? In theory, they're kind of the titular leaders. What's the state of how they've come through the first almost a year now of the Trump term?
- [63:39]
C
Well, I think Christian raised earlier is the central point here, which is how does the shutdown, what's the end game on the shutdown? And from the Democrats perspective, where do we get out of all this? And that's going to be the yardstick of Schumer and Jeffrey's leadership and grade. So it's an incomplete right now. But I think it's important also to understand what their role is and what their role isn't as a congressional party. You have no leader. You can't nominate and run someone for president as a congressional party. So their job right now is to hold the party together. If you look at the Democratic, terrible job, terrible favorability. A lot of it is disillusioned Democrats. So their job right now is to try to unify the party, try to have a coherent narrative that you stay with to define Trump and the Republicans. And the longer term goal is to try to make the brand itself less toxic so that when we have a campaign and a nominee, they're not lugging around all the dead weight that the Democratic Party currently has.
- [64:57]
B
Kristen, does Schumer and Jeffries, Republicans consider them formidable?
- [65:04]
A
No, I feel like their position is if I'm a Democrat, it's do no harm if I'm a Republican. Neither of them have done it. They're just not strong leaders. And therefore, I mean, Nancy Pelosi was a strong leader, strong, you know, disagree on everything she did, but she ruled with an iron fist. And so she was a perfect villain for Republicans. Neither Schumer or, you know, or Jeffries really has that, not yet anyway, has not demonstrated that ability to lead and drive a caucus in that fashion. And so I don't think they're very threatening. I mean, we'll see if they can pull it together and come through the shutdown ahead of Republicans. Maybe that changes things. I still, you know, most, I think most Americans would look at. If you see who's getting in a room to try to open the government back up and you have Schumer, Jeffries, Johnson, Thune and Trump, Trump's going to be the alpha in the room who everyone is going to assume gets the deal done. It's just how he is. There's almost no way to compete with that. So I don't think Jeffries or Schumer really tries. What they need to do is try to keep everyone in line and I think not overplay their shutdown hand, but try to emerge as keeping their slight advantage on it. Whereas Republicans, I think we're in good spot where we can use our alpha, in this case President Trump to emerge as the saviors who open the government and got everything's moving again.
- [66:29]
B
If that happens. Talk about 2028. Doug, you certain your memo that Trump is going to want to stay as, as the leader of the party up until the last possible moment and you say well past the midterms. It seems to me if that's true, and I think you're right, it helps Vance his chances of being the nominee because. Because he just can can almost like a Biden to Kamala Harris handoff. Nobody else is going to be extensively traveling to early states or raising money or asking people for support. So is, do you share my, my view of your view?
- [67:01]
C
I agree with that. I'll have to manage in the internals with Rubio, but I think a short campaign will benefit and I'm sure Trump will tell him that. And I just can't see Trump willing to cede the stage until as late as possible.
- [67:24]
B
Kristen, one of the names I hear is your friend and former client, current client, maybe Glenn Youngkin, outgoing governor of Virginia. If someone like Glenn Youngkin says, you know, I want to consider it, I want to consider running in the first post Trump election year, what could someone like that do campaign for people in the midterms, start a pack. Is that realistic now? And with Trump ruling the roost and Rubio State or Advance standing by his side?
- [67:51]
A
Sure. I think, and I don't even think you need to have presidential aspirations to want to do that. I think that, you know, for example, like, you know, Senator Cruz has done that every cycle with, with his outside effort. When you have, if you're one of these members, one of these leaders in the party who's never thought and never will think of running for president, but you still have a conservative base, a conservative following, there are going to be a lot of people who use their networks to help pull candidates over the line just because it's the right thing to do. But, yeah, I mean, I think right now, most folks, especially when you have, you know, the president himself saying that Advance Rubio partnership would be great, you know, I think it is, is probably the best for every Republican right now to keep focus on making sure that we keep the majority, that we get good candidates elected so that the rest of the Trump term can be successful, I think any Republican who appears to do anything other than that. So if you are someone, you know, any Republican that has, that appears to be looking like they're running for president by going to early states, by, you know, doing basically, if any Republican starts doing what Gavin Newsom is doing right now, I think it will backfire on them because right now, all Republicans need to be in the boat focused on Trump's term, making sure he's successful, because that's what's going to be successful for the country. And I think that Trump, if he sees anyone kind of stepping out of line there and trying to make it more about them and less about the mission and about the America first agenda, I think it will just backfire on them.
- [69:18]
C
And Mark, I don't know if you've paid attention to this, but Cruz is actually creating an intellectual architecture For a candidacy that no one else is doing right now as an alternative to Vance. And the other thing I'll say is I think Youngkins as likely to be the Republican nominee for president as Michelle Obama is to be the Democrat.
- [69:44]
B
Yeah, you mean, you mean ever or this time?
- [69:47]
C
Ever.
- [69:48]
B
Why is that?
- [69:49]
C
I think he's, I mean, the party, this is the party of Trump. This will not always be the party of Trump. But, you know, I don't know if he can wait 10 years to run, but yeah, in the near term, there's not a way in the world that he is where the party is. He's already had a contort his body to go to be acceptable enough to not have a problem. But, but he's not native to this.
- [70:16]
A
Yeah, I mean, I would, you know, I, I think to talk about all these, you know, proper names is premature. They all have, you know, day jobs that they're doing and focused. I don't think any. I, not that I, you know, I'm aware. I don't think anyone is focused on 28, except for the people who get asked every single day, which would be the natural Vice president, secretary of state. I do think that for candidates, we keep talking about how this is the party of Trump and how it'll always be and no one else can have a shot. What I tell candidates all the time, which is so important even now, even in 2026, is, you know, sometimes candidates will think they have to copy and paste what Trump says in the same language, the same tone, the same. And what we don't understand, what we collectively is that no one will ever be Trump. He is a once in a lifetime leader politician that we have. And because of that, if you try to mimic him, you come across as disingenuous. You come across fake. I think we saw some of the candidates on Tuesday take the wrong lessons from Trump and try to act like someone they weren't. What someone like Governor Youngkin was able to do. He embraced the base and base the Trump policies, but he didn't change who he was or his brand. And that's what all these candidates have to do. You have to be able to speak Trump and support Trump, but in your own language, don't lose who you are. And that's what's so important for us coming up in these midterms is, you know, saying speaking Trump's policies and speaking support for Trump and because these are all policies that have made the country better. That's what America said, you know, 78 million people said last November but to be able to say that in your own words is going to be so important because voters can smell a fraud a mile away.
- [71:54]
C
Yeah, really, that's true. But the problem is, in a primary isn't what you say. It's when you get asked questions of whatever the crackpot thing of the day was, you got to answer those questions. And that's where these candidates have problems.
- [72:12]
A
Well, you do. You don't. You look at Mondami. He's been asked like, three times. Well, Trump said you were pretty, and, you know, Jeffries won't, you know, support you. And he just says, hey, I'm worried about this today. I'm worried about the transition today. I'm worried about this. Sorry. And I mean, it's a gifted speaker and a gifted politician who's able to do that. But sometimes you have to learn not to take the bait and focus on, you know, I'm in an interview today, and we're talking about 2020 or 2026, and maybe in two minutes, like, you know, Mark's going to ask what I think the weather is going to be next week, and I don't want to answer that. So I'm going to say, well, actually, I think the weather next year, next November is going to be great, so we should get out and vote. You know, we have. You have to just be a nimble political athlete at some point.
- [72:49]
B
Yeah, that's also a great point, Doug. If you take the moment we're in now and go back to the beginning of the Trump administration, tell the story of how you think Gavin Newsom's potential to be the Democratic nominee has changed over that 11 months.
- [73:07]
C
Well, I, I think, first of all, he had a big success on Tuesday, which, you know, hearts Democrats in terms of reapportionment or redistricting referendum. I think Christian alluded to it earlier, at least in part. He looks like a president. He looks like someone who's got broad shoulders, who could. Could lead a country. And he's articulate. And I think the job description changes based on the political environment. And so the question right now for Democrats is, are you tough enough to take on the Republicans? And he demonstrated strength. And I think that word strength was the single most important word that Trump used in 16 to get elected, and it was what he used in 24 to get to win again. And so I think Newsom is demonstrating beyond the fact he looks like he could be the president, that he's tough enough and strong enough. But having said all that, this is all tactical. This is all like, we're so far away from knowing what the country's going to look like, you know, in the end of 2027, when you're thinking about who you want as the next president, that this stuff, I don't take a lot of stock in this stuff. I think what's most important for if you take how someone gets elected president, there are two tests. One is, do you have a vision to lead the country and can you articulate it? And do people believe that what you said is authentic to Christian's point? And do they believe you're capable of actually implementing it? And then the second test is you have the temperament to take the pressure. So if you recall, Mark, I mentioned this to you before. You know, when Obama first announced and Clinton first announced, they were terrible candidates, but they learned and got better. And by, you know, I think you probably were there and, you know, in the end of 91, Clinton got his voice in a series of speeches. And I think in, in the October of 87, Obama's speech at the Iowa JJ was where he got his voice. So first you have to figure out why you're running and what you're going to do, and that's what you should be figuring out. Now. Later on, you got to demonstrate you have the temperament. So I'm looking to see who's trying to come up with a vision for the future within the party and can articulate it. I think all this other stuff about tweeting this and whatever, it's just a sideshow.
- [75:44]
B
Yeah, but the strength thing, obviously you don't get that many chances in the national stage at this point to show strength. Kristen, just say on Newsom for a minute. Before the last couple weeks, every Republican I would talk to would say, oh, my goodness, we couldn't be more lucky than to have Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee. And the last couple of weeks, I've talked to some of your colleagues who said, well, he showed fortitude. He showed Doug's word strength. He showed the ability to build grassroots fundraising. Does he seem to you to be more formidable than he did at the beginning of the year as a potential general election candidate?
- [76:18]
A
100 and, you know, I was one of those people who way, you know, months ago, thought, you know, wouldn't he be a joy to run against? I think right now he's the most dangerous one. I think he has maturity that AOC does not. I think he has an ability to. Now I know he's not being totally authentic when he changes his position on a number of Things, but to the voter meeting him for the first time in South Carolina probably won't, you know, won't know that. So I think he has an ability to adapt to the moment, and I think that he has, out of all the field right now, potential to bridge together the extremes of the Democrat Party. Now we'll see how he balances that base and moderate wing. It's not easy to do. I think so far he's been out of all the field, the one to do it the most successfully. But, yeah, I think right now he's the most dangerous Democrat, and we underestimate him at our peril.
- [77:13]
B
Doug, what do you think of that appraisal?
- [77:15]
C
I think it's pretty accurate. I just think we're so far away from, you know, the election that I spent a lot of time focusing on it.
- [77:24]
B
Well, the only, the only thing I take issue with in terms of not, not being too far ahead is everyone who ends up the nominee of both parties. In my career at this phase, you might not have looked at him and said, well, of course they're going to be the nominee. But, but you would look at them and say, well, that person's got. Got some formidable stuff. That person has got a vision. That person has got the ability to build the apparatus. Right. There's no one who, there's no one who's ever emerged from nowhere that you couldn't have said three years out. Well, you know, they could be. They've got something going on. Or do you disagree with that?
- [77:57]
C
Well, I'm old. I mean, I basically agree with your point. I know I'm older than you are, so I, you know, I don't think Jimmy Carter passed that test.
- [78:03]
B
No, he didn't. But, but I'm talking about. I do, I do. Reagan forward. That's my standard. Yeah, Reagan forward. Even John, even John Kerry, who might be the weak Lincoln there, he'd been talked about as a potential president for a long time. He had, he had, he had a national feel for the country because of what he'd done. And I'd say the same thing about, you know, McCain. I'd say the same thing about, you know, obviously, the folks who won. Go ahead.
- [78:29]
A
I was just gonna say, I mean, if you're not, if you're not being even mentioned or doing at least something that could lead to it, then you're not going to get off the block. I think people who haven't run for president yet or been involved in a presidential don't realize how massive an undertaking it is and how Hard it is and how you have to get going. And you can't start that after 26. You have to.
- [78:49]
B
I agree with that. Doug, is there anybody impressing you besides Newsom based on this, the 2025, as a potential presidential candidate in the context.
- [79:00]
C
Of running for president or just in general?
- [79:03]
B
No, but who might be. Who might be the nominee in 20, in 28? Has anyone just done things that make you say, huh, I need to pay more attention to that person because they. They do have a vision. They do have the. The right way to communicate it.
- [79:16]
C
Well, I don't think she's going to be president, and I think it would be a disaster if she ran. I think AOC has got the right stuff. She's articulate, she's smart. She could not do a single thing for a year and push a button today after the midterms and probably raise 10, 20, $30 million. And she's compelling and she's charismatic. I think it would be a disaster for the party because she's so well defined, but she's incredibly impressive.
- [79:56]
B
Yeah. Kristin, do you think she could grow into somebody the Republicans would think formidable or. She first is going to be in the category that Doug puts her in, which is. It'd be a gift. If she were the gift to Republicans, she were the nominee.
- [80:09]
A
No, I think she could be formidable. I mean, in the same way that I think had Bernie been the nominee in 2016, you know, we would have had a closer, closer election. You know, there's a. There are two different directions, and each of these states are different. You know, everyone wants to say, well, it's just a base election. And in that case, AOC probably, you know, is very formidable. But in some of these states, you still have to persuade. And some of these, you know, we saw just on Tuesday. On Tuesday was a failure. Not just a base turnout, but of persuasion. And so aoc, if she is the nominee, then there's no, you know, that's a base. That is a base election. And so we better. We'll really buckle up and get people ready to go. I think she does have them. She would have the money, she would have the ground support. She would have the baggage. I don't think she would be a gift to us. I still think she would be formidable, but at the end of the day, I think she has more issues than not. So I think she is beatable.
- [81:05]
C
And she. It's interesting, Mark, I don't know if you've been following her. She's trying to figure out how to attack A little more to the middle.
- [81:15]
B
Yeah.
- [81:16]
C
Without, you know, getting any sort of citations from the left.
- [81:20]
B
Totally. She's, she's, she's, she's left to the center, big tent and speaking much more favorably about moderates in the party than she has.
- [81:30]
C
I mean, she's incredibly compelling.
- [81:36]
A
I, I think that her issue is going to be compared to Newsom and it might just be, I'm not saying that she's, you know, young or anything, almost younger, but there is just an emotional maturity she hasn't reached yet. And by what I mean by that is I don't, I think she can appeal to a certain group of the party or certain voters. But if she were to walk into a, I don't know, let's say Iowa.
- [82:01]
B
Or Pennsylvania sender to the state fair.
- [82:04]
A
Iowa State Fair, State fair, to have a sit down conversation, I just don't know if people would truly believe that she understands the hardships they go through. I think Gavin could sit down at the state fair and someone would walk away from that saying, that guy understands my issue. He just listened to me talk about, you know, my cattle farm issues and he gets it. I don't know if AOC yet has that ability. She doesn't come across that way. Maybe, you know, she can develop it, but, but it's just, I think it's something that you get with time and some of its natural talent. And right now I think she is more, she's a more online candidate in that sense where she just doesn't have that connectivity to the people she's going to have to get to win.
- [82:42]
C
Yeah, I don't know, I don't know if that's right or wrong. But I, what I do believe, and again, I'm not a fan of hers, I believe she has more of a sense and this is different than what it's. You convey it. I think she has more of a sense than almost any of these politicians. What people are going through in their lives right now if they're not wealthy and they're just working, you know, waitress jobs.
- [83:06]
B
Biographically she does, but I agree with Kristen, you don't see that on display very much. Doug, you've talked a couple times about her charisma. Is there someone in politics currently or in the past who you think has the same kind of charisma as she does? Just try to understand better what you're referring to.
- [83:23]
C
Well, I think charisma, connectivity and I mean, you know, I loathe Donald Trump, but for, you know, in 2024, over half the country or a majority of, you know, people who voted. He has that for people. And, you know, you've been around Trump more than most people covering him. You know, I haven't that, you know, people tell me that he's, you know, quite charismatic and fun when he's around. Yeah, there's an often, you know, there's an authenticity to him that I think a lot of people find, you know, the kind of anti politician authenticity I think people find quite appealing.
- [84:02]
B
I mean, I may not, as we close, I may not get either of you to play. I know you might pass. But, Kristen, who are the three most likely Democratic nominees right now?
- [84:11]
A
I'm going to say Newsom, AOC And I'm gonna say Josh Shapiro. I'm not gonna give, I'm not gonna quit on him yet.
- [84:21]
B
Yeah, Doug.
- [84:22]
C
Yeah, I think that's a good list.
- [84:24]
B
Yeah, that is a good list. I'm still more skeptical of AOC than you guys are because I think she'd have trouble with some of the, some of the rigors of this.
- [84:30]
C
I, I do, too. I'm just, you know, I agree with that and I think, I think it'd be a real problem for the party. But I'm just saying it's somewhat. Again, it's not from that wing of the party. Yeah, she fits for a lot of people. The times.
- [84:45]
B
Yeah. Rapid round. Rapid round. Paris. To close out our 2028 fantasy conversation, I'll name two people. You tell me who's more likely to be the Democratic nominee, who's more likely to be the crown nominee. Ready? Here we go. Westmore. Rahm Emanuel, Kristen Westmore. Doug.
- [85:05]
C
I guess Westmore. I want rom. Go ahead.
- [85:08]
B
Okay, okay, okay. Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Kristen.
- [85:13]
A
Oh.
- [85:15]
C
He agree that.
- [85:18]
B
Yeah. Okay. Governor Pritzker or governor? Governor Whitmer.
- [85:27]
A
Whitmer.
- [85:30]
B
Yeah. Pritzker's rich. More likely to run, too.
- [85:34]
C
And just on that. And they want to go. You know, Whitmer has not shown that she's up to the moment, you know, when she was in the Oval Office. Small tells.
- [85:43]
B
Totally agree with you. Totally agree. And I also don't think she's got the fire to do it. That's my sense from talking to people in Michigan. I'm very grateful to you both. Kristen Davis and Doug Sosnik, thank you for being here. Love having you on. And we'll save every, every, every bit of tape to show in a few weeks to see if it's all still true. Thank you both.
- [86:00]
C
Thank you, guys.
- [86:02]
B
All right, that's it for today's program. Very glad to have you all here and very grateful again to our guests. Tell me what you thought about today's show. Send me an email@nextup halperinmail.com find the program whenever you'd like to listen to it or see clips on x, Instagram or TikTok. Always at the handle @nextup Halperin. And of course, the program's available as a podcast or on YouTube. If you want to watch it, go to YouTube.com@nextup halpern or or wherever you get your finer or less fine podcasts. I'm Mark Halpern. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next Tuesday to learn more about what's happening. Next up.
- [86:40]
D
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