Next Up with Mark Halperin
Episode: The REAL Story of Why Trump Changed Course on Minnesota, and How Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Took Over After Limbaugh
Date: January 27, 2026
Overview
This episode of Next Up with Mark Halperin delivers an inside look at the political decision-making of Donald Trump, specifically focusing on his sudden change in Minnesota’s law enforcement policy. Halperin provides a detailed reported monologue on the dynamics behind Trump’s shift, digging into who and what influences the famously stubborn former president. The second half of the episode features an in-depth, spirited interview with radio titans Clay Travis and Buck Sexton—the duo chosen to succeed Rush Limbaugh—and explores their unique dynamic, the challenges of succeeding a legend, and sharp analysis of current political figures and the 2028 landscape.
Why Trump Changed Course on Minnesota
Trump's Reversal: What Happened?
- Scope of Change: On Monday, Trump appointed Tom Homan to lead the Minnesota operation, downgraded the standing of the current Customs Service and Homeland Security heads, and had conciliatory conversations with state and city officials (02:22).
- Public Concessions: Trump began signaling a softer tone in interviews and on social media, even suggesting some federal forces would pull back—a notable change of approach.
Understanding How & When Trump Changes His Mind
- Halperin’s Core Argument:
"I'm amazed at how little understood [Trump] is. ... If you read every article ever written ... I don't think you'd really understand him because for whatever reason, the coverage does not suggest what he's really like." —Mark Halperin (03:47)
Key Influencers on Trump's Decision-Making
- Inner Circle: Friends from Mar-a-Lago, primarily business contacts, can move Trump with direct appeals. "When they privately tell him things look bad, he takes that to heart." (06:09)
- Media Personalities: Fox News anchors hold major sway—public suggestions by hosts can trigger real action. Example: Brian Kilmeade floated Homan’s name on air, and Trump acted soon after (08:34).
- Pollsters: Tony Fabrizio and John McLaughlin’s polling data on the unpopularity of the Minnesota ICE operation had a significant impact.
- Family: Trump’s children and especially Melania Trump—whose public call for unity likely reflected private conversations (12:07).
- Conservative Media: Editorial pressure from the Wall Street Journal and New York Post can multiply the pressure on Trump to reverse course.
- Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles presents rebranding strategies to insulate Trump from appearing weak while changing course.
- Television Coverage: "He starts to see those video clips...and that's when he says, ‘maybe I got to change the dynamic.’" (16:35)
- Trump obsessively watches television news and wants to be seen as the hero in the narrative.
- If he’s cast as the villain, he looks for a way out to reclaim the dominant narrative.
The Psychological Playbook
- Assigning Blame: Trump prefers to blame policy failures on staff to rationalize pivots (18:54).
- Narrative Control: He seeks to “turn the page” by emphasizing strength, not capitulation, often announcing moves directly on Truth Social.
- Halperin’s Take:
"We saw it. We'll see it again—when Trump's in trouble, when Trump doesn't like the narrative, he makes a change." (24:08)
How Did It Play Out?
- Media Reception: Coverage framed it as a retreat (see Erin Burnett on CNN, 19:32), but Trump’s tactics succeeded in reducing political damage and shifting the media narrative.
- Broader Implications: Halperin predicts little backsliding; the move to replace key personnel and lower the temperature was “textbook” for a Trump course correction.
Clay Travis and Buck Sexton: How They Took Over for Rush Limbaugh
The Origin Story
Chemistry and Approach
- Radio Duo: Travis and Sexton, who barely knew each other before teaming up, were assembled by executives after Limbaugh’s death to tackle what was seen as an impossible task (27:05).
- On-Air Chemistry: Their generational differences play out comically on air, but each brings unique strengths:
- Travis: Emphasizes the value of authenticity, durability, and fun.
"Durability of talent is one of the most...great signifiers of a career of excellence." —Clay Travis (27:57)
- Sexton: Leans on humility and audience respect, knowing no one replaces Rush—but two hosts together can “carry on the legacy” (35:02).
- Travis: Emphasizes the value of authenticity, durability, and fun.
The Format’s Strengths
- Smart + Fun:
"Most shows are neither smart nor fun, and you guys are both." —Mark Halperin (41:30)
- Authenticity: Travis stresses radio’s intimacy and the impossibility of faking likability with listeners (39:20).
Building a Modern Media Empire
- Digital Native Advantage: Both hosts came up in the digital era and embrace multi-platform content (42:26).
- Distribution Expansion:
- Adding more video, launching satellite radio, and expanding podcasts.
"We will be on satellite radio...starting the Monday after the Super Bowl, February 9th, on channel 123." —Clay Travis (46:05)
- Podcast is now pulling 10 million downloads per month.
- Adding more video, launching satellite radio, and expanding podcasts.
Political Rapidfire & Analysis
The Cabinet
- Scott Besant, Treasury:
- Came out of nowhere as a political star; combines expertise with messaging skills.
- Has to navigate a hostile press and tough China policy realities.
"He has expertise, but also the messaging capability to handle what is still a very hostile, I mean, somewhat neutered compared to before, but a very hostile press corps." —Buck Sexton (51:10)
- China Policy:
- Challenge is ongoing duplicity by China and lack of true long-term reform.
- Both hosts emphasize Taiwan's strategic significance, especially semiconductors’ “unreplicatable” role (57:09).
2028 Presidential Race Projection
- J.D. Vance:
- Seen as the likely Republican heir for 2028, with organizational and donor support, but isn’t a sure thing due to “apparatus inertia” (60:09).
- Future Candidates: Vivek Ramaswamy is cited as an example of running to audition for administration roles rather than truly seeking the nomination (62:28).
Rapidfire Democratic Odds ("Lightning Round")
- Kamala Harris vs. Pete Buttigieg: Both agree—Kamala is much more likely.
"Kamala. 1 billion percent. Black guys aren't voting for a gay white guy." —Clay Travis (64:24)
- AOC vs. Josh Shapiro: Buck: AOC; Clay: Shapiro.
- Governor Pritzker vs. Rahm Emanuel: Buck: Pritzker; Clay: Emanuel.
- Wes Moore vs. Gavin Newsom: Both lean Newsom; potential for Moore as a VP slot.
Who’d Make a Better GOP Candidate — Clay or Buck?
- Buck nominates Clay:
"Clay loves every American. ... I will be the Rasputin behind the Clay campaign, but... [he] has way more like, political, you know, glad hand." (67:22)
- Clay agrees, describing his extroverted love of crowds, chaos, and people.
Notable Quotes & Moments
- Halperin on Trump’s decision science: "Most presidents don't like to change their mind...especially in a high-profile situation. ...The minute he's convinced it's more damaging to stay the course...that’s when he switches." (16:35–18:54)
- Clay Travis on radio success: “You can't fake radio...A lot of people fake TV...I think that's very hard to pull off on radio.” (39:20)
- Buck Sexton on the Rush succession: “No one can fill Rush's shoes. So they put Clay in one shoe and me in the other, and we go as fast as we can every day together.” (36:00)
- Clay Travis on why he’d make a better candidate: “I just love being in the craziness of a tailgate scene and just the chaos of all that. So I think a political campaign would be really fun.” (68:46)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Trump’s change in Minnesota, explanation: 02:22–24:08
- Influencers on Trump’s decisions: 06:09–18:54
- Clip: Erin Burnett on Trump’s “retreat”: 19:32
- Transition to Travis & Sexton interview: 26:53
- Travis & Sexton origin story, chemistry: 27:13–41:30
- Multi-platform growth, satellite expansion: 44:38–47:10
- Current cabinet/policy analysis: 50:29–54:51
- China/Taiwan technology stakes: 56:40–60:00
- 2028 GOP field, dynamics of modern campaigns: 60:09–64:07
- Democratic nominee lightning round: 64:07–66:50
- Personalities: Who’d make a better candidate: 66:50–69:27
Tone and Style
- Mark Halperin maintains a personable, insight-rich, slightly wry tone, pressing for nuanced explanations.
- Clay Travis is energetic, extroverted, always rooting questions in real-world, relatable experience.
- Buck Sexton brings intellectual rigor and dry humor, happy to needle Clay and play the “cultural outsider” role.
Summary
This episode offers rare, actionable insight into both Trump’s governing psychology and the delicate art of radio succession. Halperin’s analysis of Trump’s reversal in Minnesota is thorough, laying out a replicable formula for when and why the former president pivots. The Travis and Sexton interview is both funny and instructive, revealing how institutional humility, digital savvy, and a commitment to smart, fun content helped them pull off the rarest feat in broadcasting: replacing a legend and expanding the audience. The episode closes with sharp, sometimes affectionate political handicapping, making this a must-listen (or must-read) for keen observers of both media and the 2028 presidential race.