Next Up with Mark Halperin
Episode: The Seven Secrets Behind Trump’s Peace Deal and Israel’s Next Test
Guests: Dan Senor, Morton H. Halperin
Date: October 14, 2025
Episode Overview
This episode of Next Up with Mark Halperin dissects the extraordinary peace deal orchestrated by Donald Trump in the Middle East, the unconventional tactics that facilitated it, and the subsequent challenges and perceptions facing Israel, both in the United States and globally. Mark Halperin provides an in-depth monologue on "the seven Trump talents" that made the deal possible before diving into conversations with Dan Senor—an expert in U.S.-Israel relations—and Morton H. Halperin, a seasoned national security official, about the implications and future challenges for Israel, the U.S., and the broader region.
Main Segments and Timestamps
- Monologue: The Seven Secrets Behind Trump’s Peace Deal (00:02–22:13)
- Interview with Dan Senor: Israel’s Standing in U.S. Public Opinion (24:30–53:49)
- Interview with Morton H. Halperin: The Peace Deal’s Global Implications (57:05–81:23)
1. Monologue: The Seven Secrets Behind Trump’s Peace Deal
(00:02–22:13)
Theme
Mark Halperin analyzes how Donald Trump achieved a peace pact in the Middle East that defied expectations, crediting it to Trump's unique skill set—often misunderstood or underestimated by both critics and admirers.
Key Discussion Points
-
Misunderstood Trump:
Halperin notes that Trump has long been a media fascination, yet little coverage "actually reflects who Trump actually is the way he actually is" (01:00). -
Reactions to the Deal:
Both the left and right are confounded by Trump's success. Even staunch critics ("He’s a despicable man, and I can’t abide that...") begrudgingly acknowledge the accomplishment (04:44). -
Seven Trump Talents That Made the Deal Possible:
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Unconventional Envoys:
Trump’s appointment of Steve Witkoff, a real estate developer, as point man was mocked by the establishment but effective.
"Who knew that the road to Jerusalem and Tel Aviv ran through Palm beach and the Carlisle Hotel rather than through Foggy Bottom?" (09:33) -
Blurring Business and Diplomacy:
Treating diplomacy like a business deal, leveraging “synergy” rather than seeing conflicts of interest; delivering projects of mutual interest.
"For Trump, it’s vertical and horizontal integration all at the same time. Capitalism and statecraft—for Trump, they go together." (10:45) -
Reading People, Not Briefing Books:
Trump’s "geopolitical literacy" is based on reading ego and body language, not policy briefs.
"He reads ego the way a normal president would read a briefing book." (11:46) -
Unfazed by Criticism:
Trump metabolizes contempt, transforming outrage into energy for continued effort.
"Every insult to him is like a protein shake. It fuels him for the next time he’s dealing with the press or...an adversary." (13:53) -
Tactical Ambiguity:
Never clear about his intentions, which maintains leverage over opponents.
"Trump measures [credibility] by confusion. How much confusion can he sow to create his own deterrence..." (15:47) -
Timing and Spectacle:
Trump maximizes media impact, understanding "the show is the thing" in the modern world; "Stagecraft is statecraft."
"If he can make the world stop and pay attention...for 12 seconds, you’ve already negotiated half the deal." (16:35–17:00) -
Controlling the Narrative:
Trump frames the story before the facts are in, “trademarking” his own version of events.
"He treats his perception creation like intellectual property." (18:04)
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Conclusion:
Trump’s approach is described as “a kind of a postmodern stagecraft—a blend of a reality show and real politik...For all the chaos Trump is sowing, he’s just reminded the world again that diplomacy, like show business, is about who gets the first applause line.” (20:43)
Notable Quotes
-
On Trump’s necessity for the deal:
"Trump embodying US Power as no president since Lincoln was uniquely essential." (03:10, attributed to Halperin's friend) -
On Trump's critics:
"Every insult to him is like a protein shake. It fuels him for the next time..." (13:53, Mark Halperin) -
On spectacle:
"Stagecraft is statecraft. In the age of social media, the headline is what writes history, at least in the short term." (16:35, Dan Senor) -
On reframing diplomacy:
"Trump doesn’t just shape the narrative, he trademarks it and makes it his own." (18:04, Mark Halperin)
2. Dan Senor Interview: Israel and U.S. Public Opinion
(24:30–53:49)
Theme
Dan Senor discusses the erosion of U.S. support for Israel, the different dynamics at play on the American left and right, and Israel’s communication missteps.
Key Discussion Points
-
U.S. Right vs. Left:
Senor emphasizes that Israel's troubles with U.S. public opinion are "terminal cancer" on the left, but merely "a cold" on the right. The right's shift is more about broader skepticism toward U.S. interventionism than antisemitism.
"In one case you have a cold, in the other case you have terminal cancer." (27:21) -
Israel’s Communication Failures:
Israel historically neglects strategic communications, viewing it as a luxury during constant conflict.
"It’s like trying to talk to someone about their cholesterol in the middle of a knife fight." (31:17) -
Dual Audiences – Regional vs. Western:
Israel’s media posture prioritizes projecting strength to the Middle East over sympathy from Western audiences, creating a strategic communications dilemma.
"In the Middle East, it’s not a problem for us [to be seen as strong]...it shows that we respond and don’t mess around with us." (33:59) -
Netanyahu’s Approach:
Bibi pursues economic and military might as foundations of diplomatic power, believing that strength is what secures international agreements (like the Abraham Accords), even if it damages Western public perception. -
Summer 2025 Media Narratives:
Senor highlights three damaging but “false” narratives in Western media:- Israel committing genocide
- Israel orchestrating famine
- Targeting journalists
"The 1-2-3 of those stories in the summer...were horrendous for Israel over here." (37:55)
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The “Basics” Still Matter:
Senor and host argue Israel could and should have addressed media accusations directly, regardless of warfighting priorities. -
Internal Bureaucratic Tensions:
The division of communication responsibilities between the Prime Minister’s Office and the IDF spokesperson has hampered effective messaging. -
Young Americans on the Left:
Halperin and Senor express deep concern over the younger left's hostility to Israel, rooted in viewing it as a "settler-colonial" state.
"There’s a level of education for those who are operating in good faith...that scares the hell out of me." (49:34)
Notable Quotes
-
On Israel’s communication failings:
"They treat it [communications] like the less important thing they’ll get to when they have time...but I’m being stabbed right now. So let me just win the knife fight..." (31:17, Dan Senor) -
On left-wing narratives:
"So many on the left in the United States have been miseducated to believe that Israel is a settler colonialist enterprise...that’s just preposterous." (47:23, Dan Senor) -
On the complexity:
"If you are anti-Zionist, these 10 million Israelis go where? ...It’s a ridiculous conversation." (48:57, Dan Senor)
3. Morton H. Halperin Interview: Broader Implications & Peacekeeping
(57:05–81:23)
Theme
Morton H. Halperin, drawing on decades of government experience, analyzes the durability and practicalities of the new peace agreement, especially the prospects for meaningful change in Gaza and the strategic implications for U.S. policy toward Russia and China.
Key Discussion Points
-
Peace Deal – Durable or Temporary?
Halperin is skeptical:
"If I had a guess, I would guess that's where this will go...drift back into this situation being pretty much the way it was before." (57:25) -
Peacekeeping Challenges:
Creating a robust, multi-national peacekeeping force outside of the UN framework is fraught with bureaucratic, strategic, and legal challenges.
"It’s very hard to put together a peacekeeping force, especially doing it outside the UN...I ran peacekeeping in the Pentagon at the beginning of the Clinton administration." (58:28) -
Governing Gaza and Rebuilding:
With Gaza’s governance still unclear and various parties (including Tony Blair) rumored to play a role, Halperin warns that no one will rebuild “until we know who owns Gaza”.
"Is it part of Israel? Is it part of a Palestinian state which doesn't exist...?" (61:58) -
Russia and Ukraine:
Trump’s perceived seriousness may influence Russia’s thinking regarding Ukraine, but Halperin emphasizes the moral and strategic perils of attacks inflicting civilian casualties. -
China’s Perspective:
China is likely to view Trump’s willingness to “do dangerous things” as a signal, especially after the Iran nuclear site operation. However, Halperin doubts it changes the fundamental U.S.-China balance. -
On Nontraditional Diplomats:
Asked about Trump’s use of “amateurs” like Steve Witkoff:
"Successful diplomats...have to do with individual qualities, not with their training as diplomats." (73:06) -
Importance of Relationships:
Experience and personal relationships with world leaders are crucial assets for any president negotiating at this level.
Notable Quotes
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On the risk of peacekeeping:
"Countries are very reluctant to put their soldiers in a situation where they can be killed in the defense of some international principle..." (80:30) -
On Trump's diplomatic credit:
"What has been accomplished so far is getting the hostages out...is an enormous accomplishment. And if nothing else happens, I think the President’s entitled to great credit for that." (79:39–80:28) -
On media and the "war is over":
"I’m very skeptical of the phrase the war is over...that’s the dilemma we often have at the end of Middle east wars. How do you stop them?" (76:42)
Memorable Moments & Quotes
-
Halperin’s friend on Trump:
"The hard part, my friend says, is Trump is by orientation, truly a bastard. How can such a sensibility have done so much good?" (04:05) -
Dan Senor, on left vs. right:
"In one case you have a cold, in the other case you have terminal cancer." (27:21) -
Morton Halperin, on the perils of peacekeeping:
"I ran peacekeeping in the Pentagon...it's very hard to put together a peacekeeping force..." (58:28) -
Mark Halperin, on narrative control:
"Trump doesn’t just shape the narrative, he trademarks it and makes it his own." (18:04)
Structural Summary
- 00:02–22:13: Mark Halperin’s monologue on Trump’s seven dealmaking “secrets” and their impact on the Middle East agreement.
- 24:30–53:49: Dan Senor breaks down the American right’s and left’s opinions on Israel, Israel’s strategic communications failures, and challenges with youthful American progressives.
- 57:05–81:23: Morton H. Halperin discusses the complexity and fragility of the deal, the feasibility of peacekeeping and rebuilding Gaza, and regional/global implications involving Russia and China.
For Listeners New to This Topic
This episode offers a fast-moving, insightful look into how Trump’s distinct style and unconventional playbook enabled a shocking diplomatic success. The guests, blending deep knowledge of Israeli, American, and global politics, expose both the tactical brilliance and open risks of the current moment—while sounding the alarm on challenges from misinformation and public opinion shifts, particularly among U.S. youth. The cautious optimism and historical skepticism threaded through the second half ground the discussion in the difficult realities still ahead for peace and regional order.