Podcast Summary

Podcast: Next Up with Mark Halperin
Episode: The Truth About Trump's Second Term Foreign Policy Strategy, and the Charlie Kirk Void
Guests: Michael Knowles, Melissa DeRosa, Mark Bednar
Episode Date: January 22, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode explores President Trump’s foreign policy priorities during his second term, examining why second-term presidents often pivot heavily to global affairs even when faced with pressing domestic issues and negative polling. Mark Halperin discusses the historical psychology and mechanics behind this trend, analyzes the political risks, and brings on Democratic strategist Melissa DeRosa and Republican strategist Mark Bednar for bipartisan perspective. The final segment features Michael Knowles reflecting on the loss of Charlie Kirk and its ripple effects on the conservative movement, along with an in-depth rapid-fire analysis of top political figures in 2026.

Reported Monologue: The Second-Term Foreign Policy Pivot

(Starts at 00:33)

Key Points & Insights

• Perceived Political Dilemma:
  Trump’s poll numbers are hurting, and many analysts urge focus on domestic issues, but Trump has spent much of the week in Davos on major global affairs.
  • "Part of what’s ailing his poll numbers is an over focus on foreign policy and national security...and yet spent much of this week in Davos." (00:33)
• Foreign vs. Domestic Priorities:
  Despite advice, Trump is doubling down on foreign policy:
  • Greenland’s future, Russia-Ukraine talks, new “Board of Peace” for Gaza rebuilding, oil in Venezuela, regime change in Cuba, and a summit with Xi Jinping of China.
• Domestic Optics:
  The White House is sensitive to the criticism and is planning domestic events, like Iowa-focused appearances, but Trump's schedule is still globally oriented.
• Public Opinion:
  The "build firehouses in Peoria, not Baghdad” attitude is strong; voters want more spent at home.
  • “For a lot of Americans, it just doesn't make sense when there's so many challenges here at home that the United States is spending all this money around the world.” (04:45)
• Historical Pattern:
  All modern two-term presidents—Reagan, Clinton, Bush, Obama—shifted toward foreign policy in their later years, even when domestic momentum stagnated.

Notable Quotes

• On the second-term pivot:

  “Why is this president falling into what other smart political people say is a huge trap?...It comes from talking to these folks about what drove their bosses to do something counter to the conventional wisdom.” (06:39)

Why Second-Term Presidents Choose Foreign Policy

(Begins around 09:00)

Key Causes (as reported by Halperin)

• Experience & Confidence:
  By term two, presidents are more familiar with foreign leaders and diplomatic nuances, making them feel more effective on the world stage.
• Domestic Gridlock:
  Legislative accomplishments after the first 18 months are rare; foreign policy allows for unilateral executive action, fewer congressional constraints.
  • “Look at what they accomplished domestically in their second term. In all these cases...there’s not nothing, but...” (12:23)
• Pursuit of Legacy:
  With re-election concerns gone, presidents seek “Rushmore”-level achievements—usually more attainable in foreign policy.
• Less Political Opposition:
  Internally, fewer rivals exist in foreign policy; it's easier to rack up visible "wins."
  • “In domestic policy you got the Congress and members of your own party...Foreign policy, you don’t.” (13:55)

Contemporary Example: Trump in Davos

• Creating the “Board of Peace” for Gaza—framed by some as an alternative to the UN, seeking a historic accomplishment under Trump’s direct leadership.

• Trump is confident, surrounded by loyalists like Marco Rubio and Jared Kushner, executing swift and bold moves.

• On Trump’s confidence:

  "Listen to this level of confidence that he has..." (21:08)

Political Risks Noted

• Disconnect between foreign focus and domestic voter concerns—optics could hurt Trump’s party in midterms if he fails to connect global initiatives to voter lives.
  • “Can you explain to the American people why foreign policy is important? Can you link it up to their lives?...if it appears it’s just a bunch of elites...that’s going to drive your poll numbers to a bad place.” (22:43)

Panel Discussion: Melissa DeRosa & Mark Bednar

(Begins at 28:42)

Is Trump’s Foreign Focus a Mistake?

Melissa DeRosa (Democratic Strategist)

• Skeptical About Connecting Foreign to Domestic:
  Doubts the administration can effectively link Greenland or Venezuela to kitchen table issues like grocery prices and living costs.
  • “I don't know how you're going to connect Greenland to the fact that it costs people more money when they go to the grocery store. And that continues to be the number one issue.” (29:35)
• Perception of "Global Domination":
  • “It just seems like this is him flexing and what does he actually want to do from this other than build out the Trump brand…” (31:41)

Mark Bednar (Republican Principal, Monument Advocacy)

• Two Key Points:
  1. Administration Acts Swiftly:
     Trump team moves quickly (“no build up to getting Maduro...just go get him”), which can lose public resonance.
  2. Attention Economy:
     Economic sentiment depends on news cycles—if foreign affairs crowd out economic wins, sentiment will suffer.
     • “There’s an attention economy here...if that is being dominated by, ‘we got Maduro’ versus GDP numbers...sentiment gets lost.” (30:25)
• Laments Lack of Messaging:
  Wishes administration would “lean into” the substantive case (e.g., oil in Venezuela) to explain real benefits to voters.
  • “Just give them the ammo and they'll do it.” (35:18)

Broader Observations

• Fast-moving news cycles mean big actions (like Venezuela) quickly fade and lack follow-through explanations.
• Both agree: The administration fails to clearly and consistently communicate “why” these actions matter locally.

Political Mechanics: Online Fundraising & the Grassroots Recession

(Begins at 38:57)

• Halperin introduces the "recession of $10 donors" (small-dollar online contributions are dropping across both parties as people feel economic pressure).
• DeRosa: Not all campaigns rely on small donors; super PACs can fill gaps in “important races.”
  • “In important races...you’re always going to have these super PACs that come in...so at the end of the day...I don’t think it really matters.” (42:05)
• Bednar:
  • Notes Democrats have been far better at this historically, but grassroots energy is cyclical, and both parties need to adapt as moments arise.

The Newsom Question: Davos as Presidential Audition?

(Begins at 44:18)

• Halperin: Asks if CA Governor Gavin Newsom’s aggressive Davos stint will help or haunt a future presidential run.
• DeRosa:
  Strongly critical—calls it a “foolish” week, finds it “petty” and ineffective to attack the sitting president abroad, argues Newsom should clean up California instead.
  • “He made a fool of himself this week...you don’t do that...Ridiculous for him.” (46:18)
• Bednar:
  Says Newsom squandered a rare chance for a governor to appear “presidential” on foreign policy; instead came off small and missed an opportunity.
  • “Totally blown opportunity...for what could have been a really, really smart thing for him...” (48:00)

The Charlie Kirk Void: Michael Knowles Reflects

(Begins at 50:50)

The Depth of the Loss

• Personal & Political Impact:
  • Kirk's absence is still keenly felt; he was a pivotal figure in coalition building for the conservative movement.
  • “His key, singular gift was that he kept the coalition together...And that has frayed since he died...Assassinations work. That’s why people keep doing them.” (55:00)
• On Political Fallout:
  • The timing before midterms and Trump’s sunset led to intensified factional infighting.
  • “The timing couldn’t have possibly been worse for the Republican Party...it seems like a free for all.” (58:09)

Immigration, ICE Raids, and Civil Liberty Concerns

(61:17 Onward, Halperin & Knowles)

• Bridging to Liberals:
  Knowles expresses sorrow over both losses (including accidental ICE detention of citizens) but argues vigorous enforcement is essential to a meaningful nation:
  • “If a country doesn’t have borders...If a country is not allowed to deport, at the very least, murderers, rapists, serious violent criminals...Then a country is not in any meaningful sense a country.” (61:17)
• On ICE mistakenly detaining Americans:
  Knowles grants it’s regrettable, but “innocents” will get caught in any system; the alternative is tolerating illegality and undermining sovereignty (66:11).

Rapid Round: What We’ve Learned About 2026’s Key Players

(68:20)

Halperin quizzes Knowles for candid assessments:

• Scott Besson (Treasury):
  “Much funnier and much tougher...He’s a beast.” (68:45)
• Marco Rubio:
  “Brilliant at politics...He has leveled up to a degree that he’s one of the most sophisticated politicians in the country.” (69:16)
• Stephen Miller:
  “Very serious...This is a big boy...moving the wheels of government in ways that are surprising.” (69:55)
• JD Vance:
  “Much more capable of coalitional politics than I would have guessed...He’s a much subtler thinker.” (70:36)
• Gavin Newsom:
  “He’s slick...but he really can’t be all things to all men.” (71:31)
• Donald Trump:
  “A subtler thinker than I thought he was...He just keeps getting what he wants and it slips out between the bombast.” (72:50)

Memorable Quotes

• On Trump’s foreign affairs experience:

  “A second term president knows what the traffic will bear.” – Mark Halperin (18:17)

• On the rapid action in foreign policy:

  “It was like one morning, we all just woke up and we had taken over Venezuela.” – Melissa DeRosa (31:41)

• On coalition-building loss after Kirk:

  “His key, singular gift was that he kept the coalition together... And that has frayed since he died.” – Michael Knowles (55:00)

• On immigration enforcement:

  “If a country doesn’t have borders...then a country is not in any meaningful sense a country.” – Michael Knowles (61:17)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Reported Monologue (Foreign Policy Focus): 00:33 – 28:42
• Panel: DeRosa & Bednar on Trump’s Focus, Messaging, Newsom, Fundraising: 28:42 – 50:50
• Michael Knowles Segment (Charlie Kirk’s Loss & Political Analysis): 50:50 – 74:45
• Rapid Round: New Insights on Key Political Figures: 68:20 – 74:45

Tone and Language

• Analytical and brisk, with sharp, candid exchanges among panelists.
• Halperin maintains a probing, somewhat detached tone; DeRosa is direct and critical; Bednar is consultative and pragmatic; Knowles is thoughtful, personal, and incisive in his retrospective on Charlie Kirk.

End of Summary