The Truth Behind Graham Platner's Sudden Political Rise

Summary

Podcast Summary: Next Up with Mark Halperin

Episode: The Truth Behind Graham Platner's Sudden Political Rise
Date: June 11, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin (MK Media)
Guests: Doug Sosnik (Fmr. Bill Clinton Advisor), Robby Suave (Senior Editor, Reason Magazine)

---

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the unexpected political ascendency of Graham Platner, a controversial and populist Democratic Senate candidate in Maine. Mark Halperin examines the reasons behind Platner’s surging popularity despite scandal and internal party friction. The show also includes deep dives into the broader midterm landscape, partisan strategies for appealing to young men, and detailed look at the economic context shaping voter sentiment. Guests Doug Sosnik and Robby Suave provide high-level political analysis and context.

---

Key Sections & Highlights

1. Halperin’s Monologue: Graham Platner’s Appeal

[01:02 - 15:56]

The Real Driver: Not Scandal, But Populism

• Media coverage focuses on Platner’s scandals (Reddit posts, alleged Nazi tattoo, accusations, party rifts), but Halperin argues his popularity lies elsewhere.
• “I cover America... Platner’s views are from the Bernie Sanders school... a lot of controversial views that he has for many Americans and ones that are supported by tens of millions.” (Mark Halperin, [03:15])

Historical Context for Populist Anger

• Halperin draws a direct line from Vietnam, Watergate, through the financial crisis and COVID to today's institutional distrust and economic anxieties.
• Donald Trump’s 2016 rise and Platner’s current momentum share the same roots: anger at elites and a sense of being left behind.
• “There’s not a lot of difference in the trends that propelled Donald Trump into the White House in 2016 and that are propelling Graham Platner.” (Halperin, [04:26])

Platner in His Own Words

• Populist Rhetoric: “And the enemy is the oligarchy. It’s the billionaires who pay for it, the politicians who sell us out... People know the system is screwing them. They know it in their bones.” (Graham Platner, [05:33])
• Economic Populism: “Do we maintain a politics that allows for billionaires... to continue to get richer... while those of us that work for a living work harder and longer for less? I think the answer... is people want change.” (Platner, [08:31])

Key Overlaps with Trumpism

• Platner is a “macho fighting truth-teller,” relishes fights with elites, leverages accusations as proof he is being targeted for standing up for “regular people.”
• Comparison to Trump: “Whenever accused of doing anything wrong,... [he says] they’re coming after me because they’re coming after you.” (Halperin, [06:12])

Authenticity & Relatability

• Platner’s image as a “regular guy” is crucial: “When I was a kid growing up in Sullivan... clam diggers put their kids through college. It’s not enough anymore.” (Platner, [11:50])
• Platner continuously aligns himself with everyday struggles—housing insecurity, healthcare, job instability—especially resonant to voters outside urban centers.

Anti-Establishment Messaging

• “It’s very telling that a political system controlled by money... is also a system trying to convince us not to talk about what government can do.” (Platner, [09:58])

Notable Moment: Going After Elites

• Bold attack ad: “Powerful Democrats and Republicans in the country. We’re in Epstein Island... the only thing the party establishments can agree on is... a love of Jeffrey Epstein and a hatred of me.” (Platner, [13:32])

Trump Responds

• Trump uses harsh language to distance himself: “Yeah, watch that thug that’s up in Maine... he’s a thug. No one’s ever had a record like that... he’s a cheap, no good person, because he’s just an outright pig.” (Donald Trump, quoted by Halperin, [15:30])

---

2. Doug Sosnik: Deep Dive on the 2026 Midterm Landscape

[19:47 - 35:23]

Key Takeaways

• Sosnik is bullish on Democratic prospects due to historically poor political environment for Republicans: “Trump is about six or seven points lower in job approval... There’s not a single metric that’s not overwhelmingly negative for Trump and the Republicans.” (Sosnik, [21:40])
• The “big caveat”: Structural changes mean fewer competitive races—most seats are “baked in.”
  • “There are only around 35 [House] seats that are considered competitive out of 435.” (Sosnik, [25:00])
  • “It’s almost mathematically impossible for Democrats... to get anywhere near the kinds of levels of success... of '94 or 2010.” (Sosnik, [25:14])

Competitive States & Races

• Democrats can be competitive in red states like Texas, Montana, Iowa, Alaska, Ohio, but breaking through the 46-47% ceiling is tough.
• Candidate quality crucial mainly in terms of not being a damaging liability; “In a state that’s voted Democrat... that’s the perfect kind of candidate to run in Maine... just can’t be a bad candidate.” (Sosnik, [34:04])

Layperson’s Explanation

• Nationalization of politics means ‘all politics is national, not local’—districts are safe for the incumbent party unless the wave is enormous.

---

3. Economic Context: Inflation, Jobs, and the Federal Reserve

[38:40 - 44:05]

Key Economic Data

• Inflation up 4.2% over the last year—the sharpest rise in three years. Airfares up 27%, gas up 40%.
• Labor market remains strong: 170,000 jobs added last month, unemployment steady at 4.3%.
• New Fed chairman Kevin Warsh faces pressure between economic realities (possible rate hikes) and political expectations (White House pushing for cuts before midterms).
• “The tiebreaker is what voters are feeling... as Graham Platner is tapping into, voters are not happy with this economy.” (Halperin, [43:35])

---

4. Robby Suave: Platner’s Vulnerability and the Battle for Young Men

[45:08 - 65:41]

Platner’s Strengths and Scandals

• “He would definitely be a stronger candidate [without scandals]... I think there is zero chance that this is the last of the scandals.” (Suave, [45:59])
• Scandal fatigue may not move many votes but imperils Platner’s chances with key swing voters.

Media & Hypocrisy

• Notable comparison to Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation and shifting media standards for handling accusations.
• “The accusation... was good enough for media and political leaders in so many other contexts... It’s interesting to see the standards that they insisted on then be totally thrown away.” (Suave, [49:28])
• New York Times handling of accusations called into question: “If they had followed their normal practice... it would have been a much tougher story.” (Halperin, [52:13])

Electoral Math in Maine

• Collins holds a strong base of crossover Biden voters. Platner’s scandals may deter key constituencies, especially those cross-pressured by both abortion and past misogynistic commentary.
• “There are 70,000 Biden–Collins voters in Maine... this kind of stuff might matter to the sort of Dem that Collins needs to retain.” (Suave, [52:54])

The Policy Battle for Young Men

• Trump previously excelled with young men, in part by using populist language and appealing media.
  • “Trump really did well speaking to them in the media formats they prefer, podcasts, those sort of things.” (Suave, [55:00])
• Key issues:
  • War: Democrats have edge among the antiwar, skeptical young men. Republicans struggle to sell even “limited” wars.
  • Cost of Living and Housing: Neither party fully connects with young men’s struggles—housing shortages, high costs, generational inequalities.
    • “You need to unleash the market... get rid of zoning regulations, build more housing.” (Suave, [59:47])
  • Intergenerational Tension: Young people footing the bill for an aging system.
    • On “boomer luxury communism”: “If one group is getting all like 198% of the benefits... and another group is paying for almost all of it... That’s a problem that neither party addresses.” (Suave, [58:35])
  • Masculinity & Culture: Mixed results for Republicans in branding themselves with “sports, macho, toughness.” Can appeal but risks backfiring if overdone.
    • “Older voters... are more obsessed with who throws a football better... Just like always going to the same well... is playing the hits for older dye-in-the-wool Republicans.” (Suave, [61:28])

2028 Presidential Field—Young Men’s Appeal

• Gavin Newsom surprisingly cited as someone with “real strengths” among young men, even those who disagree with his politics: “There’s a certain amount of... looking up to him, even among people who don’t agree with him, that he seems to have.” (Suave, [63:41])

---

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Halperin on the Populist Wave:
  “There’s not a lot of difference in the trends that propelled Donald Trump... and that are propelling Graham Platner.” ([04:26])

• Platner on Elites:
  “Powerful Democrats and Republicans in the country. We’re in Epstein Island... together we will take back our government from the Epstein class.” ([13:32] - campaign ad)

• Trump Denouncing Platner:
  “He’s a thug... He’s a cheap, no good person, because he’s just an outright pig.” ([15:30])

• Doug Sosnik on the Structural Barrier:
  “It’s almost mathematically impossible for Democrats... to ever get anywhere near approaching the kinds of levels of success that the Republicans had in 1994 and 2010.” ([25:14])

• Suave on Media Hypocrisy:
  “The accusation on its own was good enough for media... in so many other contexts. It’s interesting to see the standards... totally thrown away.” ([49:28])

• Suave on Economy & Boomer Benefits:
  “You can’t have a system where all younger people are paying all the taxes and all the benefits are going to another class of people. Older Americans and then older Americans also have all the wealth.” ([58:35])

---

Timestamps for Key Sections

• Halperin's Monologue / Platner Analysis: [01:02 – 15:56]
• Platner Soundbites & Economic Populism: [05:33], [08:31], [09:58], [10:51], [11:50], [13:32]
• Doug Sosnik Interview: [19:47 – 35:23]
• Economic Data & Federal Reserve: [38:40 – 44:05]
• Robby Suave Interview: [45:08 – 65:41]
• Discussion of Young Men as Voters: [55:00 – 61:28]
• 2028 Presidential Potentials: [63:15 – 64:42]

---

Episode Flow & Tone

• Halperin: Conversational, analytical, deeply focused on understanding political trends, candid about his own elite background and obligations to report accurately for “real Americans.”
• Sosnik: Data-driven, historical perspective, cautious optimism but honest about limits.
• Suave: Skeptical, sharp on media inconsistency, and clear-eyed about the importance of culture, messaging, and generational divides.

---

Conclusion

This episode offers a rich, nuanced explanation of Graham Platner’s rise, contextualizing it in larger populist movements and economic discontent. It covers both the challenges facing Democrats and Republicans heading into the midterms, media handling of political scandals, and the crucial new fault lines around class, generation, and gender. It’s an accessible, in-depth resource for understanding the 2026 political environment, especially in Maine.

---

Transcript

[Mark Halperin]

Monday, AI agents took over my work and I absolutely love it. Chasing deadlines, writing status reports, updating stakeholders.

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

Agents handle the daily grind.

[Mark Halperin]

Now they live inside Monday.com, so they see the full picture. My work, my team, the whole company. And I don't have to worry about the data. It's safe, which means I'm free to focus on the big stuff. Knowing everything runs smoothly in the background. It's completely shifted the way we work. Create your own AI agent in minutes on Monday dot com.

[Jimmy Uso]

Yo, it's Jay USO from wwe and I'm Jimmy uso. Chumba Kasina and WWE are hyped for the biggest event of the summer, SummerSlam. I know I can't wait. There's nothing better to do while we're waiting than playing Chumba Casino. Sign up today and you can win a VIP experience with Chumba Casino and with WWE for SummerSlam. So what are you waiting for? Play Chumba Casino and enter for your chance to win. Let's shumble.

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

No purchase necessary. VGW Group void. We're prohibited by law. CTNC's 21 plus sponsored by Jumbo Casino.

[Mark Halperin]

Hey everybody, welcome in Mark Halperin here. I'm your host of the program NextUp. Glad to have you here. Also editor in chief of the live interactive video platform 2way and your guide to everything NextUp. Grateful to you for being here, for being nexters, and for being part of a community that cares about serious conversations. We have a great show today. Two smarty guests, another pair of great smart people. Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton's political advisor when he was in the White House. And really two distinctive things about Doug. First of all, no better political analyst in the country. And second is he's a Democrat, but he'll tell you when the Democrats are having problems. And the fact that Doug sees a really strong midterm for the Democrats, with a big caveat, which we'll talk about is key. So Doug will be here to kind of lay out the midterm landscape. And then my colleague from two Way, Robbie Suave, who's also senior editor at Reason magazine and co host of the Rising, will be here. We're going to talk about the main Senate race and also the question of which party is doing a better job appealing to young men. I love every voting bloc. I love my soccer moms. I love my young men. I love my Hispanic voters. I love them all. But Young Men is a really interesting voting block that Donald Trump did extremely well with and now seem more up for Grabs. So Robbie and I are going to talk about who's doing a better job appealing to young men and how. And then first we'll have my reported monologue, though, about Graham Platner and what I believe is a mistake people are making and thinking about talking about reporting on the main Senate race. So let's get to that, and then the guests will be here before too long. I get why there's so much coverage of Graham Platner, his, his scandals, about the divisions within the Democratic Party, about whether to support him. Those things, though, are not over his policy positions. They're not over his critique of what's wrong with America. They're all over the controversies, the Reddit posts, the accusations against him, the tattoo, the Nazi seeming tattoo that he had. All these things are what's getting the coverage. But I think we're missing an opportunity here to do what I do in my job more than anything. When people say, mark, you're a political reporter, you cover campaigns and elections, I say, no, I'm a reporter, I cover America. And I usually frequently use the prism of our politics, elections and government to understand the country. And I think it's notable because Platner's views are from the Bernie Sanders school. It's a lot of controversial views that he has for many Americans and ones that are supported by tens of millions of Americans. That's not really the objection to Platner, with the exception of Israel, where there's some policy objection. Most of the objection to Platner from Democrats are we're worried we'll lose the seat because we think Platner is going to be vulnerable. And in the general election against Susan Collins, that debate will continue. I cover that debate. But I can't help but thinking back to 2016, when I was critical of some of my colleagues for missing the story of Donald Trump. Why was Donald Trump appealing? Donald Trump was appealing because he was understanding. He evinced an understanding of what a lot of Americans, frightened, scared, determined, were feeling about where the country is. Okay, this is a long arc. I've reported on this my whole career. You can go all the way back to Vietnam and Watergate and start to see the decline in trusted institutions. You can go back to a little later than that when Americans start to feel that they wouldn't, their kids and their grandkids wouldn't have the same economic opportunities. Then you go right through the financial crisis in 2008. Go to Covid. There are other elements along the way, but those are the big ones. And then the Polarization in the division and income inequality. The, the fact it unmistakable, you don't need to be a Democrat or Republican, doesn't matter who you are. Unmistakable that the rich are getting richer. They, they pay a lot in taxes, but they also make a lot of money, they have a lot of wealth. And so long term, there's not a lot of difference in the trends that propelled Donald Trump into the White House in 2016 and that are propelling Graham Platner. It's an anger, visceral, white hot anger at elites, whether they're financial elites or political elites, whoever they are. And Graham Platner from the very beginning of his campaign has tapped into that. You gotta say brilliantly, you gotta say Platner has understood why Americans are so upset, including Mainers. Here's a bit of the announcement video from way back in August of 2025. They put Platner on the map and it's very relevant to what we're going to talk about today. S8, please.

[Graham Platner]

And the enemy is the oligarchy. It's the billionaires who pay for it, the politicians who sell us out. And yeah, that means politicians like Susan Collins. I'm not fooled by this fake charade of Collins deliberations and moderation, not giving a damn. People know that the system is screwing them. They know it in their bones. Nobody I know around here can afford a house. Healthcare is a disaster. Hospitals are closing. We have watched all of that get ripped away from us and everyone's just trying to keep it all together. Why can't we have universal health care like every other first world country? Why can't we take care of our veterans when they come home? Why are we funding endless wars and bombing children?

[Mark Halperin]

So again, there's, there's two things that rhyme with what Donald Trump has used to rise and stay atop the American political system. One is this kind of macho fighting truth teller who will stand up to elites, will call them out in a brusque way, profane and fearless, and whenever accused of doing anything wrong, saying anything wrong, saying, oh, they're coming after me because they're coming after you. And the second overlap is a really tactile understanding of why people are so upset. And this is one of the biggest problems with elites in the media and other elites well off, have health insurance, typically don't know people who've died from a fentanyl overdose don't typically get off the coasts, including in Washington and New York, where most journalists are don't understand the visceral pain that so Many people in the country are feeling the strain to say, can I buy a house? Can I send my kids to college? As I said before, will my kids and grandkids have the same economic opportunity that I have had? And watching as rich people during COVID got richer while most everybody else was left behind. I'm guilty biographically of being in the group that should be out of touch wealthy. Spent my whole life living in the Northeast, went to an elite college. But I just work hard to try to appreciate and understand by talking to folks around the country through net, talking to nexters through two way to understand the reality that grand Platinum is tapped into. So why is Graham Platner doing well? Why does he have a chance as someone with no experience and all these charges against him, why does he have a chance to win this race up against a Republican incumbent? It's because he understands the mood of the country. First of all, economic populism. That's what allowed Donald Trump to rise up. It's why Bernie Sanders is still so popular. Sanders, who supports platinum, it's economic elites, international trade deals, all these things that people across the country, not just in the Rust Belt in Maine, all, all the things people point to and say, it's the elites that are screwing everybody else. Here's Platner from this week on Morning Joe with his economic populism message that's striking a chord. S1, please.

[Graham Platner]

Is this country going to be able to go in a direction of a politics that is accessible, a politics that is representative of regular people and meta politics that therefore represents regular working people? Or do we maintain the status quo? Do we maintain a politics that allows for billionaires and corporations to continue to get richer and richer and richer year after year, while those of us that work for a living work harder and longer and for less? And I think the answer to that up here in the state of Maine is people want change.

[Mark Halperin]

Now, Donald Trump drove that message as a billionaire who lived in a built building on Fifth Avenue he named after himself. Platner's biography has been challenged. He went to elite prep schools. People question whether the business he says he runs is real. But voters don't care as much about that as Platner's political rivals do, and as some journalists do. It seems clear because of how well he did in the Democratic primary and how well he's doing in the polling. They want someone who sees corporate elites, political elites, as part of the problem, not the solution. And Platner couldn't have for that message a better, a better person to run against Susan Collins, who's been a senator forever in Maine. The other piece of that second thing that Platner does that's so successful, I think is anti establishment. Here he is sitting down with Bernie Sanders, his patron saint, politically talking about opposing the establishment. This is S2, please.

[Graham Platner]

I think it's very telling that a political system that has become controlled by money, controlled by the power of organized money, is also a political system that is trying to convince all of us down here that policy and discussions around what government can or cannot do is not what they want to talk about. It's fascinating to me that the more money that goes into our political system, the less we talk about actual politics.

[Mark Halperin]

Again, that message, very similar to Trump's message, resonates with a lot of people. Another element of this is talking about the working class. That's not new. Politicians talk about all the time. Platner has convinced people. Again, he's kind of shaped his biography in ways that have been challenged. But listen to him talking about the working class. This is also from Morning Joe this week. S3, please.

[Graham Platner]

This is what everyone wants to make the campaign about. So we do not talk about the struggles of working manners. We do not talk about the fact that I know someone in my hometown here who works three jobs and pays over 60% of her income in rent. I think that matters a lot more than the details of my relationship before I ran for United States Senate. That's just me.

[Mark Halperin]

Lastly, Platner is like Donald Trump coming off like a regular guy, guy who likes, likes the kind of things that normal people like, talks like a normal person. Here is. And a lot of the campaign videos they do are meant to put that in sharp relief. Here's Platner talking in June at a rally in Maine. Again, this is a. This is a. There's a casual guy, an authentic guy at a relatable guy for a lot of Mainers. S4, please.

[Graham Platner]

When I was a kid growing up in Sullivan, I remember guys who you could stern in the summer, plow in the winter, do some carpentry, do some reeds, and that was enough. That was enough to live a small but decent life, enough to own your home, enough to send your kid to a decent school, enough to maybe even save a little bit for retirement. I knew clam diggers that put their kids through college. It's not enough anymore. You do that seasonal work. You're also taking on an extra shift at Home Depot or at Walmart or you're not fishing, because instead of being able to go out and make a living on the sea, you've got to take some shoreside job just so you can get health insurance for your family.

[Mark Halperin]

So, as I've talked to Democrats this week about, why is Platner popular? They said they, to a person made the point. It's not because he's got some detailed progressive reform agenda that's original, although he talks about health care and, and other issues that, that the progressive movement cares about, what they say. It's these. It's the style of Platner and his ability to describe the problems that you just heard in that sound from him. The ability to talk about what's wrong with America with passion and, and convince a lot of voters that he is someone who can understand what they feel. They can understand the problem that they feel. Now, here's the first video Platner put out since he got the nomination. And you'll see a lot of familiar themes in here. It's not. It's not something Donald Trump would do, which you'll understand. Here's Graham Platner's new video. S9 please.

[Graham Platner]

Powerful Democrats and Republicans in the country. We're in Epstein Island. It seems the only thing the party establishments can agree on is a love of Jeffrey Epstein and a hatred of me. I'm Graham Platt and I approve this message because together we will take back our government from the Epstein class.

[Mark Halperin]

Take back our government from the Epstein class. Nothing could be more platoonian. Nothing could be more okra. Nothing could be more of the moment to say to the voters of Maine, the working class, voters of the country, the working class has screwed you while they've gotten richer and enjoyed their secret wealth and experiences. And I'm going to fight with you. So that explains to me why Platner is doing well despite the controversies and the controversies like we, like Donald Trump has done. Every time Platinum has been attacked, every time he will be attacked, he'll say, it's one day closer to Election Day. They're trying to stop me because they're trying to stop you. These allegations are baseless. They're all ginned up. And, you know, it's a very effective argument because by our accusations coming out later, before the election, the people make the accusations will say, well, they're coming out now because they got to stop him. They're Democrats who want to stop him, not because he's a threat to the establishment, because either they don't think he's a good guy and they don't want him to be a senator or because they think it'll all be exposed eventually and he'll lose to Susan Collins. And Democrats want to hold the seat. Make no mistake, Republicans will come hard at Platner. One Republican who's watching this all very closely is Donald Trump. And even though there are similarities in the styles of Platner and Trump, and even though there's similarities in the way they talk about the problems of Americans are angry about, Trump doesn't like Platner. Maybe it's because Platner is too much like Trump that he doesn't like him. Here's the president this week in the Oval Office bringing up Graham Platner and talking about how he feels about the guy he may see in the mirror. This is S10, please.

[Doug Sosnik]

Yeah, watch that thug that. That's up in Maine. He's a thug. Nobody's ever had a record like that. This guy's got a rapture. I've never seen anything like it. He's a thug. He's a thug. He's a cheap, no good person, because he's just an outright pig. He's like a pig. I watched him a couple of times. He's like a pig. Because there's never been a guy like that that's ever run for office.

[Mark Halperin]

Never been a guy like that who's ever run for office. So I can think of a guy in some ways like that who's run for office, another guy who rode to the top of politics, having never run before, with the capacity to make people who feel scared by the economics in the United States now, the culture in the United States now, and to say, I understand why you're so angry. Roll me into Washington, D.C. i'll blow up the place and make sure that the elites don't screw you anymore. That guy, of course, Donald Trump. And it's going to be fascinating all fall to watch how Trump and Platner engage from afar, because you can bet that Platner's campaign will be as much as anything about saying Susan Collins supports Donald Trump. And the Republicans are going to be saying as much as anything, Platner is a bad guy, a pig, as Donald Trump said, a cheap person. And they're going to try to stop him. But all the while, I'll say there'll be lots of coverage of the scandals, the controversies and the allegations. But continue to listen to what Graham Platner's saying, hopefully about solutions, but also about his prescription, his descriptions of what's wrong with the United States now, because it is deeply resonant across the country. Maybe not as much in the big cities, but across the country off the coast. This is a deeply resonant point of view. And even on the coast where young people can't afford homes, where young people feel they're being screwed by elites and the career politicians, Graham Platner has resonance for a reason. And we need to keep listening to that, even as he is condemned for some of the things that he said and done that make him less than ideal of a messenger. All right. There you have it. That's my reported monologue on Graham Platner talking to Democrats this week about the message and not the man. Let me know what you think. Email me your thoughts on today's reported [e-mail] Let me know if you agree with me that Graham Platner has struck a chord. All right. Take a quick break now. When we come back, one of the great political analysts America has on offer today. Doug Sosnik, former top aide to Bill Clinton, is next up. If you're 64 years old or older, let me give you the advice that I would give to a friend right now. Check your current Medicare plan, especially if you have a Medicare supplement. Here's why. Identical supplement plans, they can have precisely the same coverage but wildly different prices. That's how crazy the Medicare system is. Depending on what you happen to see when you check or what you miss, you can be dramatically overpaying for literally the exact same coverage, benefits, everything, and you're none the wiser unless you go looking. Chapter does the looking for you. They're the only Medicare advisors that compare every plan nationwide to every carrier and every rate. Their advisors, they're not paid to push one plan over another. If you're already on the best rate, they'll let you know that. And if not, they'll help you make a switch. They've helped many folks in this audience in this community save thousands on their premiums alone. That's folks's real money. So if you're turning 65 or already on Medicare, give my friends over a chapter a call. They're a free resource for this audience and can review your options in under 20 minutes. Call right now. 262-454-0503. That's 262-454-0503. All right. Welcome back. Next up and joining me now, Doug Sosnik, top political advisor to President Clinton when he was in the White House. And I can say without fear of contradiction, a Democrat who's one of the best political analysts in the country and calls him as he sees him. If he thought the Democratic Party was headed into the midterms in a troubled state, he would say so. But, Doug, that is not what you think. You and I have talked about this before. You're very bullish on the Democrats prospects right now. Tell everybody, what are the main reasons you think the Democrats are in line to have a very good election.

[Doug Sosnik]

Oh, hi, Mark. Thanks for having me back.

[Mark Halperin]

Thank you for being here.

[Doug Sosnik]

I would say, yes, I'm very optimistic. But. And there's a big but in there. The reason I'm optimistic is the external political environment that the Republicans are going to be trying to defend control of Congress is the worst. I think it's the worst I've seen. Certainly worse than 1994 when I was in the White House and we lost control of the House for the first time in 50 years, over 50 House seats and seven Senate. And worse than 2010 with Obama when we lost the House and we lost over 60 House seats, seven Senate seats. Trump is about six or seven points lower in his job approval right now than either Clinton or Obama when you had those kinds of landslide victories. And the three sort of we're getting close to the point that the countries made their minds up about A, how they feel and B, are they going to vote because midterms turn out is everything. So there are three possible paths in terms of the political environment that we're in that's closing. The first is things get better. The second is they stay the same, or the third is they get worse. I think the least likely scenario is that things are going to improve between now and Election Day. I think probably things. My guess is things are going to get worse than they are now, or at a minimum, they're going to stay where they are right now, which is historically bad for the incumbent party. So for that, I'm extremely optimistic. And I'm not a person that is prone to being overly optimistic.

[Mark Halperin]

And just, just before you move to the but you're talking about the president's approval rating, gas prices, inflation. Are those sort of the big three pieces of data or everything?

[Doug Sosnik]

Everything. The direction of the country. Right track, wrong track. People who voted for Trump for the first time in 2024, how do they feel about him now? Independent voters? I mean, I don't spend a lot of time talking about polling with people right now because every single number is so awful that it becomes repetitive. But there's actually not a single metric that I can think of that's not overwhelmingly negative for Trump. And the Republicans compared to where we stood the day after the 2024 election.

[Mark Halperin]

What about, again, this may be your. But what about the fact that the Democratic brand is not doing particularly well is that it's not.

[Doug Sosnik]

And I don't think that's really, frankly a issue in the midterm. I think it's a major issue in 2028, but I don't think it, I don't, I think, and the force field here is so overwhelming on two areas that I don't think anything can change it. One is the people that hate Trump and are motivated about that is so strong. And his strong disapproval now is almost 50%. So I think there's nothing that's going to change that. It's as much about turnout whether people are going to vote or not. And I think that's way overwhelm however people feel about the Democratic Party. And by the way, well, I'm certainly not prepared to sit here and tell you that things are a lot better for the Democrats than they have been, because they're not. The Republican Party is now only about four or five points better positioned than Democrats in terms of their favorability. So they're almost about the same. And so again, there are two issues here. One is who feels motivated to come out to vote, that it opposes Trump. But the other issue are people that supported Trump. And remember, Republican candidates have never one single time done well in an election since Trump rode down that escalator. There's not one single time that Trump has not been on the ballot that the Republicans did well. So you have a history of him uniquely being able to pull out a group of people that Republicans can't. And for a lot of people in this country, not only swing voters or independents who voted for Trump, maybe reluctantly, but even for big chunks of his base who may still be attached to him personally, this is not what they thought they were signing up for.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, before you get to your caveat, let me just say to folks, nothing Doug said would be disputed in terms of the environment by serious Republicans with political polling data who are doing races this year privately, at least, they wouldn't dispute any of that. Now, they've got some countervailing factors that we'll talk about that they say could change the environment. But as a snapshot of where things are with a reasonable historical belief that voters are starting to make up their mind and Doug's analysis that things are unlikely to change for the better, that's just a consensus view, even though you won't hear Republicans talking about it.

[Doug Sosnik]

Openly.

[Mark Halperin]

So what are the caveats to it? Doug?

[Doug Sosnik]

Well, there's only one caveat to it, which is how the structure of American politics has changed in the last 15 years. Whereas Mark and you and I were starting out in politics, there was a saying that was sort of the coin of the realm, which is all politics was local, how, you know, you had to run for office based on whatever you're running for and appeal to people on local issues. Now all politics is national, how people vote for presidents, how they vote for the Senate, for the House, for governors. And so as a result of that, there's just so many fewer competitive House seats and states that it's basically almost mathematically impossible for Democrats, no matter how bad things get, to ever get anywhere near approaching the kinds of levels of success that the Republicans had in 1994 and 2010 that I mentioned earlier, because there just aren't enough competitive seats for Democrats to be able to take advantage of what I think is going to be an enormous blue wave of sentiment. But in terms of electorally, it's going to be very hard for us to take advantage of it like it would have in the past. And, and just as an example, so there are 35 Senate seats up Democrats, we need four, a net of four to pick up the Senate, the 35 Senate seats up, 22 of which are defending, Republicans are defending. So in the abstract, that would be an extremely, really good map for Democrats to take advantage of such a bad year. But right now I think there are only eight seats that are considered competitive and the Democrats are defending like three of them. And in the House right now, there are only around 35 seats that are considered competitive out of 435. And on top of that, the Republicans are probably now going to pick up eight to 10 seats on the redistricting efforts that they've done. So these are the structural impediments that I think are going to hold the Democrats back from the kinds of sweeping victories that by historical standards you would expect.

[Mark Halperin]

So to put that just in slightly more layperson's terms, whether it's a Senate race that's in a very red state or it's a House race with the district that's been gerrymandered, the incumbent or the Republican held seat, incumbent party might have a closer race than they would otherwise if the environment weren't the way it is, pro Democratic environment. But they're not going to lose because their constituency for that district or that state is just too overwhelmingly red, too overwhelmingly Trump. The bigger the wave, the More those states or districts could come into play. But as of now, even those like Doug who read the environment as very favorable to Democrats see a ceiling on just how successful Democrats could be.

[Doug Sosnik]

That's right. And you know, there are a whole host of, of Republican states that I think in this kind of environment, Democrats can be very competitive. However, it's really hard and it's true for Republicans in Democratic states now. But you take states like Senate seats right now that generally, you know, we say for Republicans that they're defending at places like Texas and Montana, in Iowa and Alaska and Ohio. In several of those states, I think Democrats can easily get to 46 or 47% of the vote and have a very close election. But the challenge for us in those states is how do you get from 46 or 47% of the vote to 50% of the vote? And I think it's possible in some of those states. But, but in many of those states it's just too hard.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. So we've talked about the macro. Let's talk about the micro. I would love you to give folks a master's degree, maybe a PhD in how to read these races if you're talking about an individual race. I talk to people about the Texas Senate race, for instance. They say Talarico can't possibly win. The Democrat or Maine, they say, well, Platner can't possibly win. And then I talk to people who say, no, Talarico has a great chance or Platner has a great chance. So, and those are just two examples. But what do you look to if you, if you wanted to say, okay, you know, there's historical data about the previous races at the presidential level, Senate race. But just, just take the text to Senate race. If you're looking at Paxton versus Talarico and you want to get in a sense of how likely it is that could Democrats win away that seat that's been Republican held. What kinds of things do you look at that's available data?

[Doug Sosnik]

Well, and I should say I've been a lifetime skeptic on Democrats ability to win statewide in Texas.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Doug Sosnik]

And you know, even in back in 2018, which is a very good Democratic year in which Democrats picked up, I think, 41 House seats and we had, we had a candidate who was a very strong candidate and he still only got around 47% of the vote, 48%. So that's kind of a, so part of the challenge. I think the things to be looking at now is first of all, the congressional generic. What's the margin right now of people voting for Democrats over Republicans. And I think in 2018, when the Democrats picked up 41 House seats, I think it was around plus eight for Democrats. In 2018, right now, it's around that maybe plus seven, plus eight. So the first is a congressional generic. Then the second is which party's voters are more likely to vote. I can't say this enough. Everything about midterms is about turnout. It's not about most of the polling. You see cnn, they do all eligible voters are all registered voters. The first thing you should do if you're watching what's going on is only look at polls of likely voters and see where the congressional generic is and see which, which party's voters are more enthusiastic about voting.

[Mark Halperin]

And again, the congressional generic. That's right, for those who don't know, is a polling question. In your upcoming races, you plan to vote for Republican or for the Democrat, not with the names of the candidates, but just the question of which party. And as Doug said, Democrats have a pretty big lead on that right now. Sorry, go ahead.

[Doug Sosnik]

And so back to your question about Texas. So there are a couple places to watch on Texas to get some sense on election night of how it went. And I would put Texas, if Democrats need to pick up a net of four, and that means we have something to defend, we can talk about it. I would put Texas is sort of the most likely for us to be the fourth or fifth or sixth. So it's kind of on the outer edge. But it's possible there are two areas that are going to be important for Democrats. Oh, and I should mention, by the way, so in the Texas primary earlier this year, for the first time in 20 years, more Democrats turned out to vote than Republicans in the primary.

[Mark Halperin]

First time in 20, just the enthusiasm.

[Doug Sosnik]

That's the enthusiasm number. And for Democrats to actually perform well and this could impact the House. There are two areas to watch in Texas. One is South Texas, in which Trump did extremely well in 2024 in South Texas, which is predominantly Hispanic voters. And they have, they're amongst the groups that have abandoned Trump and the Republicans since the election. And the Republicans, not to get too much in the weeds, they redistricted Texas and they did that based on the 2024 results. So they're assuming the Republicans in 26 are going to perform as well with Republican Hispanic voters in the South Texas part as Trump did, which I think is extremely unlikely. So in terms of the House, while we're sitting here talking about Texas, these Southern districts that were redrawn I think Democrats could pick up several of those then. The other thing to watch in Texas are college educated voters which are increasingly becoming. Texas is increasingly now urban. The main urban areas of five of them now constitute almost 80% of all voters. And increasingly people are coming in of college education and Democrats do well with college educated voters who are more important voter group in an off year. And so you know, looking at these college educated voters who probably a lot of them voted for Trump in part because they didn't like Harris and they don't trust the Democrats, but they've never really been crazy about Trump again, that just another set of broad set of people that have abandoned Republicans since the 2024 election and Trump. So those are the two areas to watch in Texas to see if Democrats could pull it off.

[Mark Halperin]

And what about candidate quality? How do you measure that? A lot of people say the reason Calorico can't win is because he's made all these past controversial statements that seem out of step with a lot of the Texas electorate and that he's not good at kind of cleaning those things up. Is that how do you, how does somebody like you measure how big a factor that is?

[Doug Sosnik]

I think it, I probably have a little different view than most people on this. I, I think, well, I think candidate quality matters. I mean, I think candidate quality really matters. And one of the reasons Republicans, it took them so long to take the Senate back in the last decade was they ran really terrible candidates. But I think that candidate quality is, is particularly in an off year. It's probably more about candidates not being a problem than candidates being great. So for instance, I think a take Maine as an example. I think a off the rack sort of beige kind of Democrat that's totally acceptable, but it's not even particularly say, inspiring. I think that's the perfect kind of candidate in this political environment. In a state that's voted Democrat like the last five elections, that's the perfect kind of candidate to run in Maine doesn't have to be a great candidate, just can't be a bad candidate. And in Texas, the only way that the Republicans could possibly lose that seat. And we saw this, you know, in, in Alabama when Jones won it. The only way that Democrats can win, I think the seat in Texas is if the Republicans run, ran someone who's unelectable and unqualified and unfit. And I think that their nominee, Paxton, is that although that doesn't guarantee because of how red the state is, the Democrats will win. So it's almost, I view candidate quality more in terms of not being a huge negative than the need to be a huge positive when it's a wave election.

[Mark Halperin]

Got it. Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, this is Doug Sosnik. Joining us, former top political advisor to Bill Clinton, one of the best and smartest and most honest political analysts in the country. Doug, thank you for being here. Grateful to you for making time. All right, if you're watching this on YouTube, we'd like you to subscribe to the platform. So go to NextUp YouTube channel and check subscribe so you can get all the full episodes, all the bonus content you won't see anywhere else. Go to YouTube.com nextup halperin and subscribe today. And if you're listening to the podcast version, do the same thing. Basically set your downloads to on so every time a new episode drops, it will come automatically to your device the moment we posted. Please do one or both of those today. No searching, no scrolling, and no missing out on any next up content. And next up here, we're going to dive into the latest economic data about consumers and inflation. See see what that tells us about the macro economy and the upcoming election. That little report is next up. Right now think about the last 30 bucks that you spent, maybe on a streaming subscription that you don't even use. Maybe a lunch you've already forgotten. That's $30 and it's gone forever. Acre gold lets you turn that lost money into physical 24 karat Swiss gold. You pick a plan, your balance bills, and then once you get the price of a bar, they ship it straight to your front door. Incredible. Real gold in your hand at your home. And over time, you're sitting on something that's been valuable to people since the dawn of civilization. And for the collectors out there, this is cool. They just dropped the limited edition Hot Wheels collection. These are officially licensed by Mattel. Strictly capped. And once they're gone, they're history. While you're checking them out, also claim your free entry into the speed club sweepstakes. They're giving away a 1 gram Hot Wheels gold bar plus a massive grand prize. This is also super cool. The 10 gram 24 karat gold bar hot Wheels bar. Both of these come in official collector's packaging and they're up for grabs right now. So start stacking for just $30 at getacre gold.com mark again, that's getacregold.com mark subscribe today.

[Monday.com Announcer]

This is a Monday.com ad, the same Monday.com helping people worldwide getting work done faster and better. The same Monday.com designed for every team and every industry. The same Monday.com with built in AI scaling your work from day one. The same Monday.com that your team will actually love. Using the same Monday.com with an easy and intuitive setup. Go to Monday.com and try it for free. Yes the same Monday.com Tyler Redick and

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

Chumba Casino a winning combination. Another checkered flag for Tyler Reddick in 23xi racing this time at COTA in the Chumba Casino Toyota Camry. That's three wins this season. Talk about a lucky streak. Chumba Casino proud partner of Tyler Redick and 2311 Racing play for free at chumbacasino.com let's Chumba no purchase necessary VGW Group voidware prohibited by law CTNC's 21 plus sponsored by Chumba Casino

[Mark Halperin]

all right, next up, we're gonna take a little bit of a deeper dive on the economy coming out of our conversation with Doug Sosnik, who rightly points out that a lot of Americans don't think things are great. Here's why. Consumer inflation, that's what the prices people pay at the store has risen 4.2% over the last year. That's the biggest jump we've seen in three years. Where the biggest price increase has been. The steepest increase is airfares up 27%, fruit and vegetables up 6%. And if you're driving or using fuel in some other way, you know that that's a big gasoline up more than 40%. This has become a trend now and people feel it over the last three months, since the start of the war with Iraq, Iran, rather, inflation has accelerated significantly before that, even with the tariffs, things were relatively under control coming down from the Biden years. But that is a problem now. Inflation. So that's one big issue. And then the labor market actually continues to show strength and resilience. It's been a source of, of, of optimism and something the president points to regularly. More than 170,000 jobs were added last month. That's much higher than people in expected extended what has been a quite a streak of pretty solid job growth. The unemployment unemployment rate holding steady 4.3% in May, despite the fact that people are expecting or have expected AI to start shredding jobs. Job growth has been good. The sectors where the most hiring has been leisure and hospitality, local government and health care and social assistance. That's key because it's been spread out. It hasn't just been one sector driving this. All of this now presents an issue politically and policy wise for the Federal Reserve and the president's new chairman, Kevin Warsh, who's first policy meeting is later this month. The president this week talked about how he wants rate cuts. Warsh, given all this economic data, is going to be under some pressure to increase rates, expected to hold them steady for now. But could he actually see have to raise them before the election? Companies are still expanding, they're still investing. The central bank probably, if there weren't some political overtones here, probably would raise rates. But it's not certain what war will do. And while the president has been surprisingly hands off in when asked about what war should do, he clearly would like to see a rate cut going into the midterms. This massive challenge for the president, he can't expect there to be a rate cut. And the other big issue hanging over this is wages, which have not been growing even as much, even as inflation has. All this adds up to a big challenge for the president. The first job, as so many people have said for him on the economy is to end the war. That's not a sure thing. The Strait of Hormuz may stay closed. American defense spending may continue to be tapped in order to deal with Iran. And the political imagery of this, where gas prices are high and the war continues, the conflict continues, it's politically horrible for Republicans who say that's the first thing that has to happen. In the meantime, Congress is trying to pass a housing bill. There's other things going on where they're trying to send at least a message to voters that they are doing things to address their economic concerns. So while I've never covered an economy like this, the data is so split. The president's right. There are positive things to point to. Scott Bessant, treasury secretary, says it as well. There's also negative data. But the tiebreaker is what voters are feeling. And as you've seen over and over again, as Graham Platner is tapping into, voters are not happy in the main with this economy to the extent that poll after poll continues to show more voters like the Biden economy than the Trump economy. A painful pill for the president to swallow and of course, a sign of just how stressed people are now because they were no big fans of the Biden economy. All right, important and fascinating data to look at. We'll continue to track it as we head to the midterms. Another quick break and then next up, Robbie Suave, senior editor at Reason magazine, will be here. Robbie is next up. Okay, now it's time for some life talk life insurance talk that is you probably have life insurance, but do you know how much you pay for it? The truth is you likely pay too much to get too little coverage. Plus, if coverage is tied to your job and then you're laid off, you're left with zero protection. It's pretty scary, but simple to fix with Select Quote Unlike one size fits all companies select quotes License agents work for you in just 15 minutes. They compare top rated providers to find the perfect fit for your health and for your budget. Best of all, this is a free service. Don't worry about medical exams. They've got partners offering same day coverage up to $2 million without a doctor's visit. Even with pre existing conditions like diabetes. Selectquote finds the protection that you deserve Life insurance has never been cheaper than it is today. Select Quote they shop, you save, get the right life insurance for you for less and save more than 50% at selectquote.com mark again save more than 50% on term life insurance at selectquote.com mark again go right now to get started today at selectquote.com mark this is a

[Monday.com Announcer]

Monday.com ad the same Monday.com helping people worldwide getting work done faster and better. The same Monday.com designed for every team and every industry. The same Monday.com with built in AI scaling your work from day one. The same Monday.com that your team will actually love using the same Monday.com with an easy and intuitive setup. Go to Monday.com and try it for free. Yes the same Monday.com yo, it's Jay

[Jimmy Uso]

Uso from WWE and I'm Jimmy Uso. Chumba Casino and WWE are hyped for the biggest event of the summer. SummerSlam. I know I can't wait. There's nothing better to do while we're waiting than playing Chumba Casino. Sign up today and you can win a VIP experience with Chumba Casino and with WWE for SummerSlam. So what are you waiting for? Play Chumbo Casino and enter for your chance to win. Let's shumble. Yeet.

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

No purchase necessary. VGW Group Void we're prohibited by law. CTNC's 21+ sponsored by Chumba Casino.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, next up and joining me now everyone, Robbie Suave, senior Editor at Reason Magazine, co host of Ris by the Hill, which airs five days a week, Monday through Fridays, 9am to 10am Eastern Time. And perhaps most importantly however, he is the host co host of the Group Chat on two way, where he is my colleague on a program that airs live Thursdays at 4pm East. Robbie, welcome. Thank you for coming.

[Robbie Suave]

Great to be with you. Thanks for running down that list.

[Mark Halperin]

You're a man of many hats.

[Robbie Suave]

We must wear many hats in these days.

[Mark Halperin]

You must wear many hats. I talked in my monologue about Graham Platner and where I see his appeal. If Grant Platner didn't have all these controversies associated with him and he just had the same agenda and his biography was not subject to criticism for hypocrisy, how much stronger a candidate would he be in this race?

[Robbie Suave]

I think he would definitely be a stronger candidate. I was suspicious from the get go that Janet Mills was the more appealing candidate. She would have been the oldest first term senator ever. I think a lot of Americans, even in a non ideological way are getting concerned about the same class of established elderly political figures being responsible for all decision making. So if he demonstrated some, you know, an apt for policy and quick talking, engaging in the important issues of the day, I think with his background he would have been an appealing candidate. But we just can't overlook the amount of scandals at this point. And I should say there is no chance, I think there is zero chance that this is the last of the scandals. I think more will come out. That's the implicit suggestion of the New York Times article. And what Lindsey Fifield the accuser said is that other people. Now that won't necessarily motivate so much changing of votes. But Susan Collins is sitting more comfortably than I think a lot of people understand given how large her margin of victory was last time. So this one's still a toss up to me. But I think he's definitely been weakened by what's going on and what will still come.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, what's interesting to you about this story, Every, every non presidential, every midterm cycle, certain down ballot races, typically Senate races, sometimes a governor's race, get a lot of attention. Is this one intrinsically interesting that'll sustain through the through November or it's just interesting to folks now?

[Robbie Suave]

I mean I find it interesting because hypocrisy is an appealing thing to police and to call out when you see it. And there's a lot of it on both sides of the political spectrum. Obviously partisans will overlook flaws in their own candidates constantly. But I just saw Jodi Cantor, someone very involved in MeToo stories for the New York Times, saying that this is what he's accused of is so unlike everything that went on back then, which is not true. This is an exact kind of accusation that would have emerged back then and been condemned by so many media figures and activists and so on. And it is interesting to see the standards that they insisted on then be totally thrown away. And I thought a lot of those standards were bad. So maybe now we're coming to the right place. Where. Well, there's no corroboration as long ago. What can you do? But that's not how it went down for that period of time. So I find that interesting.

[Mark Halperin]

Certainly, I agree with you. And I continue to be amazed at how little the media reporters who cover everything in media have been talking about. What I can't think of an analog for. The New York Times writes this piece. The main person they quote in the story challenges them pretty aggressively about how they handled her story, about the things they told her about other accusers that didn't turn out to be true. And the New York Times barely responds. They basically say, we stand by our reporters and our reporting, and she continues to accuse them of not dealing with her respectfully. She's an accuser. Typically, the New York Times gives wide deference to accusers. Why isn't that story getting more attention, not just as a media story, but it's a question of how the New York Times treated someone making an accusation that they thought enough of to include it pretty prominently in a piece they wrote.

[Robbie Suave]

Sure. And the accusation on its own was good enough for media figures and political leaders in so many other contexts. I mean, this has invited comparison to the Brett Kavanaugh situation, I think very deservedly, because the same political figures who said the word of that person, you know, as compelling a figure as Lindsey Fifield said, I've seen enough. He can't be involved in politics anymore.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. And just. And just to put what you just said in sharp relief, I think this is indisputable. If the accusations against Brett Kavanaugh were about him, his days as a student.

[Robbie Suave]

Yes.

[Mark Halperin]

Her accusation. If Brett Kavanaugh has a hypothetical. If Brett Kavanaugh had been accused by someone whose credibility had not been challenged. Some people say she's a Republican, but no one has undermined her account. It doesn't mean it's true, but no one's undermined it in any serious way. If Brett Kavanaugh had been accused by someone like that, as an adult of locking some. A woman in a room and not allowing her to get out and at some point twisting her arm in a violent way, I don't think he would have been confirmed.

[Robbie Suave]

Right. There was no evidence even that the two had met. It was no corroboration.

[Mark Halperin]

In case of Kavanaugh.

[Doug Sosnik]

Right.

[Robbie Suave]

In the case of Kavanaugh, in this case, we know they did date and he's admitted to, you know, toxic behavior. And again, I don't, that's not necessarily enough for me. I was never one of those people that say, well, you said it was that way. So I have to believe you because I know human memory is fallible. People, even with good intention, doesn't mean everybody's a liar all the time. And we remember traumatic events in different ways over time, ways that are favorable to us. And it's often a little bit more complicated than that. But that has to be true in every single one of these cases. Some of the things he's accused of in that piece, I don't know how you would even rebut the charge that you were engaged in a, that you were in a emotionally wrenching relationship. How does anyone accused of that, you know, resist that charge? But the Lindsey Fifield stuff is, is pretty, pretty compelling, pretty serious and it's being brushed off.

[Mark Halperin]

What do you make of the accusation? Which I have a fair amount of sympathy for that. And again, you and I, you and I are like minded. We're not, we're not here to say the guy should be drummed out for accusations again years ago. But, but just in terms of fairness and as you said, hypocrisy, I felt the Times story was so oddly written that the most damaging things were buried in the story. According to Fifield, as you said, they left things out. I thought, I thought that it was, it was, you know, people say, oh, well, the Times wrote a tough story about a Democrat. If they had followed their normal practice of how they write up stories with such accusations, I think it would have been a much tougher story as written than it was.

[Robbie Suave]

Well, right. They had him pretty dead to rights on the lying about the tattoo. I still would maybe accept that when he got the tattoo, he didn't know what it was. But she very clearly and with evidence presented to the Times that they confirm, knew what it was before he had conceived, before he, his story is he found out what it is when reporters confronted him, but she has evidence that he knew that beforehand, which speaks to his credibility. And you have to kind of figure out for yourself that the Times has effectively confirmed that when you get to the paragraph.

[Mark Halperin]

That's right. Rather than leading with that and imprisonment and apparently illegal ownership of a gun,

[Robbie Suave]

or at least allegedly still a damaging story, though Republicans need not get themselves so worked up about every knee jerk frustration with media coverage. This is still A damaging story for Graham Platner. There will be people who are oscillating right in Maine. There are 70,000 Biden Collins voters in Maine who are thinking, well, this is that independent senator we always talk about. Democrats say we just want a Republican who will not do everything Trump wants. We find Trump so vexing. Why can't anyone stand up to him? Well, here you go. This is your person for that. This is someone who does vote against Trump. Votes are conscience votes in ways I don't always agree with. But she's an independent creature and I think they need a really compelling person to go to jump ship for. And this kind of stuff might matter to the sort of Dem that Collins needs to retain.

[Mark Halperin]

Our colleagues have started to move away from just the abstraction of who's going to win the general election based on pundits feeling, to thinking about the voters of Maine. And we've already seen a couple stories at least about older women and how they'll vote. Cross pressure to some extent. It is kind of 80,000ft. Susan Collins supporting Kavanaugh and then Roe gets overturned. So if you're a woman who cares about abortion rights, you may say they don't want to vote for Collins. And then all the things that Platner has been accused of and has written and is acknowledged he wrote in Reddit about women that they find offensive. I'm also interested in young men as a battlefield, a demographic battlefield. We know that Donald Trump in the last presidential election did very well with young men, including young men of color as well as white young men. And since the election, as Donald Trump has fallen politically, he's fallen with everybody, including with white men, but maybe not specifically anything specific about white men. How do you see the battle for the political allegiance of young men, not just in the main race, but in general now, what does each side have to offer young men? What is each side's vulnerability with young men?

[Robbie Suave]

Yeah, Trump really did well speaking to them in the media formats they prefer, podcasts, those sort of things. And it did make some clear cut promises that are appealing to the group you're describing. I mean, the foreign policy stuff is rough. I think you can agree with what Trump's doing on foreign policy, but it's pretty clear that he said no new wars. This represents a new war. Maybe it can be. It has to be defended and justified to people. I think there's.

[Mark Halperin]

I'm sorry, I'm going to stop you on that because here you're forcing me to channel my inner Caroline Levitt. He's talking, as far as I'm concerned, he's talking about no forever wars, no boots on the ground, no nation building, no endless commitment. This is, this is fulfilling a campaign promise that was quite explicit as well. Make sure Iran doesn't develop a nuclear program. The, the, the cost has been high in human life. Thirteen Americans have perished. The cost has been high in dollars. But this is not to me. And again, you rebut me if you disagree. This is not to me the kind of war he said he wouldn't start.

[Robbie Suave]

I think young people are very on their guard from having been tricked on that basis many times in the past. I think if Trump gets this deal done and the deal has some improvements over the Obama era deal, which I think are on the table in terms of how much nuclear enrichment timetables, those sorts of things, then Trump can say this is a win. And while any loss of life is regrettable, any short term economic disruption is bad. We won, we achieved something. The world is a safer place. And now we're moving on to focus on domestic issues. You can still save this whole thing and you can still reassure those young people, but when it's just, it'll be a couple more days, couple more weeks. Young people have been accustomed to hearing that with the other wars in the Middle east and they don't instinctively believe it. And you got to forgive them for that because it's always been mission accomplished and then there's more down.

[Mark Halperin]

Understood. So the first issue you'd cite where you think the Democrats have an advantage with young men would be on this issue of wars because they clearly cast themselves as in opposition to this particular war. What else would you put on the, what other issues would you say are helping or hurting one of the two parties as they try to appeal to young men?

[Robbie Suave]

Cost of living, but it's a little bit more specific than when you hear in the media just cost of groceries, those sort of things. Young people, young men want to get married, start families, buy a house, have the American dream, that sort of thing. And you know, I'm not a figure of the left. I'm not someone who's gonna say that's totally off the table and income inequality and blah, blah, blah. There are still places in America where that is very possible to achieve. However, it's harder in a lot of economic centers. A lot of people wanna live in cities where there's ample job opportunities, but there isn't available housing. Childcare costs so much. And there has been a failure of both parties to speak to the economic reality. For young people, we have a giant welfare system that is tilted very much toward the boomers and their health care. But they also have a lot more wealth now. And I, you know, I don't want, I don't want anyone to go without medical care. That's not what I'm saying. But there's a certain kind. Have you heard this term total boomer luxury communism? Have you heard about this?

[Doug Sosnik]

This is.

[Mark Halperin]

It sounds awesome, right?

[Robbie Suave]

Well, it's awesome for the beneficiaries, but if one group is getting all like 198% of the benefits that the government gives in the society and another group is paying for almost all of it. Nancy Mace, you know, God rest her political ambitions, she had said like the week before that election, we shouldn't tax seniors at all. Like, well, you, I'm, I'm, I love getting rid of taxes, you know that. But you can't have a system where one class of people, just all younger people are paying all the taxes and all the benefits are going to another class of people. Older Americans and then older Americans also have all the wealth because they've had their houses for, you know, it was easier to buy houses back then for they've been allowed to accumulate wealth. I want them to keep their wealth. But then you would think that they should be paying for, right. More of a share of their living situation than young people. That's a problem that neither party addresses.

[Mark Halperin]

So do you think either party has an edge on that? It's one of the things Charlie Kirk was, was most focused on. But does either party, do you think, in the short term, longer term, based on their, their orientation towards policy, towards solutions, towards credibility, do you think either party has an advantage on the, those economic issues for young men?

[Robbie Suave]

Republicans point, can point to smart things they've done on the state level to make Florida, Texas, Tennessee, places like that more attractive to start small business, buy a house they're doing a lot of great stuff on. We need to build more housing. I mean that's the big solution to all these problems is just get, get rid of zoning regulations, build more housing. A lot of blue run places have dropped the ball on that. Although even some very progressive legislators often talk about the need to do more on housing, which is good to hear, but it doesn't so much make it to the national conversation. And often the national conversation focuses on what benefits do we, well, do we do a child tax credit? Do we do subsidized kindergarten? Do we do that sort of thing? And I see the appeal of that but it's really, you need to free. You need to unleash the market to deal with these kinds of problems. You need to deregulate, make it more attractive to business, more attractive to. For housing development, and that's going to ease the pressures that young people are feeling. And on some level, the Republican Party, at least the Republican Party of, I don't know, yesteryear, that would have really appealed to them, right? Deregulate and build. It's not being talked about enough these days, and I think that's a problem.

[Mark Halperin]

Last one I want to talk about. And again, this might just be armchair punditry and no connection to actual real lives of real people. It seems like Donald Trump has branded the Republican Party as the party of sports and macho and toughness and. No, no, no men playing, no trans athletes playing in women's sports. Are those things that have broad appeal to young men in a way that helps the Republican Party or. Not necessarily.

[Robbie Suave]

I think it's very much a mixed bag. There's smart stuff. This UFC fight they're gonna have on the White House property, as annoying as it's been to me to have to, like, go out of my normal scooter commute as they're doing the construction, is probably a nice thing that young people will appreciate. I think, though, there can be a less compelling way that older politicos on the right try to just talk about masculinity. Just the relentless stuff about how James Talarico is so unmanly. It's gotten over the top for me where I'm like, okay, I want to hear the ideas in this race. Like, you know, the person you're running isn't so sterling record either. I think it works up into a point. But frankly, older voters, I think, are more obsessed with, like, who throws a football better or something. That doesn't mean that all of the kind of macho stuff is useless. There's talking to young people again in the venues where they like to get their news in the podcast, talking about, you know, cultural workout routines and dating advice, and that is good to network and, and gain attention from young people and particularly young men that Trump knows how to do and Republicans have been more successful at. But. But just like always going to the same way or who's that? Rob sand, that guy? I saw some conservatives trying to say that he's also another, you know, effeminate loser. They're trying to say every Democrat, like, that is.

[TextNow Announcer]

Is he really?

[Robbie Suave]

I don't, I'm, I'm missing the boat Here you're just saying that about every single person with a text to their name. I think that's playing, you know, playing the hits for the, for older dye in the wool Republicans.

[Mark Halperin]

Right. And that's a Democrat nominee for governor in Iowa who's, who's seen as a pretty, a pretty solid candidate in what's been a red state. Are there any people who Talked about as 20, 28 presidential candidates, either on the Republican side, Cruz Vance, Rand Paul or, or Rubio or any of the two dozen Democrats, do any of them seem to be strong candidates to appeal to young men to you? And if so, why?

[Robbie Suave]

Anecdotally, I've been surprised by how much of an appeal Gavin Newsom actually does seem to have for young men. Yes. I think, and this is someone whose politics I really don't admire particularly, I have a lot of criticisms of how he's govern California, particularly going back to pandemic governance. I think there is a certain amount of, I'm sorry to report this, looking up to him, even among people who don't agree with him, that he seems to have. He has this. He has a family, he has a attractive wife. He's been very successful. He seems at ease with himself when he talks. Those are real strengths. And again, anecdotally this, I'm not talking about how I feel about the candidate, but how young people, even young, some young, pretty far right people, seem to find him admirable in some way. And I think we might be surprised. You want a hot take prediction way too early that will just end up being wrong. I think we might be surprised by the ease at which he ends up getting the Democratic nomination.

[Mark Halperin]

Interesting. I don't rule that out. You may know, I don't think he's going to run in the end, but if he does, I think you might be right because you got to build an aircraft carrier to run for president. And so many of the other people who are discussed, I think will just have trouble, so much trouble doing that. They won't run. Robbie, we need to save time for you to tell everybody where to see your work. So I'll sit back and do wordle. Tell everybody if they want to read your stuff, listen to your stuff, watch your stuff. Where do they go?

[Robbie Suave]

I'll rattle off the list. Reason magazine, reason.com, oh, also, please follow me on Twitter. Just my name. I have a show for the Hill. That's the Hills YouTube channel. And of course, most importantly, two way the group chat. We've got our own YouTube channel. Check that out that airs 4pm on Thursdays. I'm looking forward to it later today and I'm looking forward to doing Wordle and connections and spelling bee which I do every single day.

[Mark Halperin]

Do you do sports Wordle or just I mean sports connection?

[Robbie Suave]

Spelling bee. I beat yesterday. I got every single word and I'm impressive.

[Mark Halperin]

Impressive. Spelling bee is. Is great for the mind.

[Robbie Suave]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

Great for flexibility of mind. Grateful for you to be here. The group chat is, you know, in some ways like lots of shows on video, a bunch of people talking about politics, but it has a cast of Robby and his colleagues across the political spectrum and you can participate like in all two way programming by coming on the platform and raising your hand. It is a great show. I recommend it to you. And again, it airs Thursdays at 4pm Robby, thank you for being here. Love talking to you always, sir.

[Robbie Suave]

My pleasure. Thank you.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, that's it for today's program. Grateful to Doug and Robby both for being here and grateful to you for watching. Have a wonderful weekend. We'll be back on Tuesday with a brand new episode. Our guest will be Glenn Beck, founder of the Blaze. He'll join us for a special conversation. You may think you know Glenn Beck, but wait till I'm done with him. Now we're going to have a good talk. Enjoy the weekend. As always, please subscribe to Next up on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast so you always know what's coming. Next up,

[Monday.com Announcer]

the most memorable gifts aren't found, they're made. Zazzle is a custom marketplace where you pick any product, a mug, a card, a tote, a phone case and make it personal. A photo, a name, an inside joke. The kind of gift that actually fits the person. That's what 30 million customers have been coming back to Zazzle for over 20 years to find. Right now, save 25% on your first [e-mail] that's zazzle.com make it zamazing.

[TextNow Announcer]

Your phone is your lifeline. Calling your kid to say goodnight, waiting on a job callback or just sending a meme to your best friend when it's been that kind of day. Wherever life takes you, the Text now app keeps you connected for free. Get a real phone number, unlimited talk and text and 5G data for your favorite apps, all for $0 a month. No fixed contracts, no hidden fees, no panic when bills pile up. Just phone service that's there when it matters most. Text now. We've got your back. Download Text now in your app store today. Wireless plans require the purchase of a sim card. Visit textnow.com for terms and conditions.