Podcast Summary: Next Up with Mark Halperin

Episode: Trump’s Greenland End Game and His Showdown with Europe and NATO, Plus Iran’s Next Chapter Revealed
Date: January 15, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin
Guests: Morton H. Halperin, Ben Ferguson, Yemisi Agbiwale

Overview

This episode dives deep into President Trump’s high-stakes confrontation with Denmark, Greenland, and European allies over who will control Greenland. Mark presents in-depth reporting, analysis, and humor surrounding the US administration’s insistence on acquiring strategic control over the island—framed as a uniquely “Trumpian” saga. The show also touches on next steps for Iran, the future of Venezuela, and sharp debates on domestic politics, immigration enforcement, and the direction of both major US political parties.

Main Theme

Trump’s push for US control of Greenland as a matter of national security, economics, and geopolitical influence is roiling relations within NATO and with Europe, while also stoking uncertainty and dismay among Greenlanders themselves. The episode explores how this standoff could end, what leverage the US president is seeking, and draws comparisons to past American strategic maneuvers. Additional headlines include the prospects for regime change in Iran and Venezuela, plus a lively domestic panel discussion about ICE and American political divisions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Greenland Drama: Context and Stakes

[00:32–17:00] Monologue by Mark Halperin

• US Interest in Greenland: President Trump’s demand for full US control of Greenland, motivated by national security, economic opportunity (especially rare earth minerals), and strategic positioning against Russia and China.
  • “He wants it all. He wants the United States to control it ... to make sure Russia and China do not.” (Mark Halperin, 01:35)
• Europe’s Response: European military presence is increasing, but more as symbolism than actual deterrence.
• Greenland’s Uniqueness: Self-governing but economically and militarily dependent on Denmark, with a tiny, isolated population (56,000 people).
• Local Sentiment: Overwhelming resistance among Greenlanders to becoming part of the US—feelings described as “shocked, angry, confused, humiliated, insulted, and most of all, scared.” (NYT via Halperin, 07:13)
  • “We are not for sale.” (Yemesi Agbiwale, channeling Greenlanders, 09:46)
• Economic Realities: Greenland’s reliance on Danish subsidies, fragile seafood-based economy, and limited infrastructure highlight the formidable cost to any new “owner.”
  • “The island is one of the world's biggest welfare states ... accustomed to the perks of Denmark’s social democracy.” (Halperin quoting WSJ, 13:40)
• Potential Models: Discussion of the Marshall Islands–style “compact of free association”—not outright US annexation, but control over defense for financial and strategic concessions.
• Global Reaction: Media zings, late-night comedy, and polling showing Americans are overwhelmingly against the idea of taking Greenland by force (86–9% opposing, Quinnipiac).

2. International Tensions: Allies, Opposition, and “Leverage”

[17:00–28:00] Analysis and Reactions

• European Outrage: Fresh troops and symbolism in Greenland, EU solidarity with Denmark and the territory.
  • “The Greenlandic people’s right to self-determination.” (Danish FM Rasmussen, 20:24)
• US Politics: Congressional and public opposition to Trump’s tactics; almost “no allies” for Trump’s approach.
  • “Who else is against this? The American people.” (Mark Halperin, 22:04)
• Trump’s Strategy: According to Halperin, it’s about maximizing leverage—using bluster to get more favorable terms on military/diplomatic/economic access without necessarily taking full control.

3. Expert Interview: Morton H. Halperin on “Normal” Foreign Policy Process

[28:31–41:39]

• Normal vs. Trumpian Diplomacy:
  • Normal process involves clarifying American needs, negotiating calmly with Denmark and Greenland, and using alliances rather than threats.
  • “You’d first figure out exactly what you need...explain to Greenland and then publicly why you need these things...then you would implement it.” (M.H. Halperin, 29:10)
• Trump’s Approach: Seen as unnecessarily aggressive and amorphous—unclear objectives, more interested in confrontation than resolution.
  • “He seems to be looking for a fight rather than looking for a way to get the specific things he wants.” (M.H. Halperin, 32:05)
• Justification for US Interests: The US, as NATO’s senior partner, has precedent for demanding strategic concessions on security grounds, but “should be done with clarity, not crisis.”
  • “That’s what we should be doing here. Let him be straightforward.” (M.H. Halperin, 34:58)
• Self-Determination vs. Realpolitik: Morton Halperin argues for dealing primarily with Denmark, not letting Greenlanders have a veto—which sparks debate about the legitimacy and wisdom of sidelining the local population.
  • “We should tell the Danes the Greenlanders don’t get a veto.” (M.H. Halperin, 39:17)

4. Broader Foreign Policy: Iran, Venezuela, the “Sphere of Influence”

[41:39–48:08]

• Iran Regime Change: A post-theocracy democratic government isn’t impossible, but using US military force is both morally and strategically unwise; US interest should focus on supporting democracy and human rights.
  • “I don’t think there’s a basis in Iran to use military force ... I don’t think the Iranian people trust us.” (M.H. Halperin, 44:09)
• Monroe Doctrine in the Modern Age: The idea of the Western Hemisphere as a US-dominated sphere is outdated; international law and mutual respect should prevail.
  • “There’s no country in the Western hemisphere that wants to be part of the American sphere of interest. They want to work with us, they want to be treated as sovereign nations.” (M.H. Halperin, 45:40)
• Cuba’s Prospects: Potential for democratic transition if US policy prioritizes engagement and gradual change.

5. Panel Discussion: Ben Ferguson & Yemesi Agbiwale—Greenland, Venezuela, Domestic Divisions

[49:52–67:05]

Greenland’s Endgame: Predictions

• Ben Ferguson: Optimistic about a US protectorate model (“like the Marshall Islands”): “It’s going to be a major foreign policy win ... I bet you before he leaves the White House, Greenland will be a part of the United States, but not a state.” (51:15)
• Yemesi Agbiwale: Skeptical, framing the episode as a “pet issue finally put down,” citing bipartisan discomfort and lack of congressional support. (51:27)

Venezuela’s Future

• Ben Ferguson: Trump’s actions seen as a strategic win removing a threat, pushing back China/Russia, and upending narco-terrorism. (53:02)
• Agbiwale: Warns of US distraction—overcommitting resources abroad while neglecting domestic needs. (52:45)

ICE, Immigration, and Law Enforcement

• Divided Perceptions:
  • Ferguson: ICE is fulfilling its law enforcement mission; negative polling is skewed by “media propaganda.” “You don’t do things based on a poll. You do things based on right and wrong.” (55:19)
  • Agbiwale: Trump overreached on enforcement—ICE’s image transformed from bureaucratic to aggressive, harming public support. “All of that [enforcement footage] combined with this shooting starts to build ... what is the purpose of ICE?” (58:18)
• Poll Numbers: Approval for Trump’s immigration policies and ICE has declined significantly, with Democrats seeing a political opening.
• Advice to Democrats: Push for reform and accountability, but avoid slogans like “Abolish ICE” that alienate moderates.

Divisions Within Both Parties

• Democrats: Split between “No Kings”—never-Trump activists focused on defending democracy—and younger, kitchen-table populists demanding economic focus. (64:54)
  • “We’ve always pronounced what we are against, and never said what we are for.” (Yemesi Agbiwale, 67:05)
• Republicans: Split between Trump’s loyalists and establishment Republicans eager for a post-Trump era.
  • “This is still ... the party of Trump ... some can’t wait to screw him any way they can, even more than some Democrats.” (Ben Ferguson, 67:12)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “We are not for sale.” — Yemesi Agbiwale (channeling Greenlanders), 09:46
• “He wants it all. He wants the United States to control it ... to make sure Russia and China do not.” — Mark Halperin, 01:35
• “The island is one of the world's biggest welfare states ... accustomed to the perks of Denmark’s social democracy.” — Wall Street Journal, cited by Mark Halperin, 13:40
• “You'd first figure out exactly what you need...and then you would explain to Greenland and then publicly why you need these things...” — Morton H. Halperin, 29:10
• “He seems to be looking for a fight rather than looking for a way to get the specific things he wants.” — Morton H. Halperin, 32:05
• “That’s what we should be doing here. Let him be straightforward.” — Morton H. Halperin, 34:58
• “We should tell the Danes the Greenlanders don’t get a veto.” — Morton H. Halperin, 39:17
• “I bet you before he leaves the White House, Greenland will be a part of the United States, but not a state.” — Ben Ferguson, 51:15
• “Trump’s pet issue finally put down. ... I don’t think this is a serious venture.” — Yemesi Agbiwale, 51:27

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump’s Greenland Play Contextualized: 00:32–17:00
• International & US Reactions: 17:00–28:00
• Interview with Morton H. Halperin: 28:31–41:39
• Discussion: Iran, Spheres of Influence: 41:39–48:08
• Panel: Greenland Outcome, Venezuela, ICE, Partisan Divisions: 49:52–67:05

Tone & Language

• Halperin’s style: Encyclopedic, wry, detailed reporting peppered with asides and cultural references.
• Morton H. Halperin: Thoughtful, pragmatic, a blend of realist and idealist.
• Ben Ferguson: Direct, partisan, convinced of Trump’s strength and ICE legitimacy.
• Yemesi Agbiwale: Witty, policy-focused, critical of Trump-era overreach, attuned to grassroots sentiment.

Memorable Moments

• The comparison of Greenland’s population to Dodger Stadium capacity—underscoring the surreal scale of US interest.
• Discussion of foreign ministers “racing for cigarettes” after tense DC meetings—a humanizing, almost cinematic detail.
• The debate over whose voice matters in national security negotiations: the local population or sovereign states.
• Panelists forecasting the Wikipedia entries for Trump’s Greenland and Venezuela chapters—sharp, speculative, and revealing of political divides.

Conclusion

“Trump’s Greenland End Game” episode delivers an illuminating, multi-angled examination of a headline-making foreign policy quandary with national and international implications. From the granular realities of Greenland’s society to the chessboard of world power politics, Halperin and his guests challenge conventional wisdom, highlight policy process, and offer broad perspectives on the current American and world order—all while maintaining the lively debate and sharp tone that define the show.