← Next Up with Mark Halperin
Next Up with Mark Halperin
Why Pritzker Is Rising and Buttigieg Is Slipping in the "8 for '28" Dem Nomination Rankings, with Dem Party Experts
01:16:19
Mark kicks off today’s episode with the January return of his signature “8 for ’28” reported monologue, revealing how the Democratic field is already shifting just months into the invisible primary. He walks through the latest shakeups in his rankings, why Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro remain firmly at the top, which candidates are gaining ground, and why others are slipping. Mark also lays out the biggest unanswered questions facing each contender — from fundraising and coalition-building to electability — and explains the tests he believes will determine who can actually win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. Then Democratic strategists Karen Skelton and Patti Solis Doyle weigh in, offering their candid assessments of the field. They debate who truly belongs in the top tier, whether Pete Buttigieg has hit a ceiling, why Kamala Harris’s path back may be narrower than it appears, and whether 2028 could finally be Rahm Emanuel’s moment. The conversation also explores AO...
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Mark Halperin
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Mark Halperin
Welcome everybody. This program is called NextUp with Mark Halperin. It's the main reason I got the job. I fit the title. I am the editor and chief of live interactive video platform Two Ways and your host here, guide to everything. Next up. Really exciting. A lot of news going on in the world. We could do a hundred different topics today to stay on the news, but we're going to do one specific thing because branded segments, branded segments, very big deal in the media. And one of our branded segments is what we call 8 for 28. And today we debut our second round of the rankings of the most likely people to become the Democratic nominee for president. And in 2028, I do extensive reporting with Democrats. What I do is I, I take the previous list and I think about where I think things are based on the reporting I've done and then I send it out this time to 21 different Democrats with experience in national politics, two Republicans. So 21 Democrats, two Republicans, all with great experience. And I ask them, who do you want to move up, who do you want to move down? And I'm never going to please everybody, but I try to listen to their reasoning and then produce the list. So you'll see today some pretty big changes from one month to the next about not only who's where on the list, but who's included and who's not. We'll get to that in just a minute and I'll walk you through exactly what I see, what the ratings are. Then after that, we'll bring in two really smart Democratic strategists. Patty Solis Doyle worked with Hillary Clinton, Karen Skelton worked with Al Gore and many others. They're going to react to my list. They're going to make challenges of what they see, add their own insights. Who should be on, who should be off etc. It'll be fun. I'm looking forward to seeing what they think. I didn't, I didn't ask them about the list previously. They weren't part of the initial consultation because I knew they were going to be joining us. And then after that are going to close out with a conversation with Mike Rogers. He's been endorsed by Donald Trump as a Republican Senate candidate in Michigan. He ran two years ago, just barely lost by a handful of votes, running again for that open seat. So we'll talk to him about the Senate race and how he sees policy on things like AI Looking forward to talking to him. He's, whether you agree with him politically or not, one of the most thoughtful people in the House and now running for Senate. So that's what we've got for you today. Looking forward to it all. But we're going to start with, without further ado, the second round of my 8 for 28 rankings of the Democrats most likely to be their nominee. Now, I got to caveat this for you because I'm always going to get a lot of feedback to this segment. One reason we like it so much, but I wanted to make sure it's on point feedback. So first of all, it's early. I understand the races. And now although people are very active, there's more activity than there might be for people who are jockeying to maybe run. We don't even know what states are going to vote early. The Democratic Party still hasn't figured out Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina. So that's early in all sorts of ways, but not too early to game this out and to track month to month the changes. This is about the nomination for the Democratic Party. Don't say to me, oh, this person could never win a general election. I'm not interested in the general election right now for these rankings. It's about the nomination. Who's the most likely nominees? Okay. Now I heard a lot of disappointment this round, more than last time. I sent my list out to these 23 folks. And on the Democratic side, more than half of the people when they responded, responded with some version of is this really the list? And I've said this before, I don't think as of now, as a snapshot of where we are now, I, I don't think this is the most stellar group of all time ever to run for president. Maybe some people will run surprises, but and maybe some people will turn out to be stronger. But again, don't tell me, oh, it's such a disappointing list. I know it's disappointing to many Democrats. Lastly, most important, maybe in some ways, as we look at the list in just a moment, you gotta factor in the chance somebody would run, right? Because if they're not gonna run, they can't be the nominee. So, for instance, if you said, well, Michelle Obama should be number one, because if she ran, she'd be the nominee, almost certainly, but she's not going to run. So you'll see. And as I talk through the list, you'll see some folks who are either not on the list or low down because I don't necessarily think they're going to make the race. If they do run, I'll probably move them higher. So here we go. Let's review the December list. These are the December rankings. My eight for 28. And here you can see California Governor Gavin Newsom, number one, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, two, Pete Buttigieg, number three, Kamala Harris, four, Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky, five, Wes Moore, governor of Maryland, six. J.B. pritzker, governor of Illinois, seven. And lastly, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, the congresswoman, number eight. So that was my list. That's the list I worked off of for this month. And here's where we are now. Here are the changes, and they're pretty substantial in one month. I didn't necessarily anticipate there'd be this much of a shakeup, but here we go, no shake. Up at the top, Gavin Newsom, still number one, and Josh Shapiro, still number two. And I actually believe that they're head and shoulders above the rest of the list in terms of the chances they would have if they run all the things you need to win a nomination. They're one and two. Kamala Harris, I moved up, had her at number four in the previous list. She's moved up to number three. J.B. pritzker, the biggest jump from number seven up to number four, Pete Buttigieg moved down a little bit. I had him at number three. He's decked back down to five. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, up two spots. She was number eight in my previous reported monologue on this. Now she's six. And then two folks added to the list who weren't on the list in December, Congressman Ro Khanna of California and Rahm Emanuel, former US Ambassador to Japan, former mayor of Chicago, former congressman, number eight. Two folks who dropped off Andy Beshear and Wes Moore, two governors. I'll explain why I've dropped them off in just a minute. That's the list. So that's the changes Again, Newsom, Shapiro, Harris, Pritzker, Buttigieg, Alexandria, Ocasio, Cortez, Rokana, Rahm, EMANUEL. That's my eight for 28. Right now. Let's talk about why. Newsom and Shapiro, I believe, are incredibly strong, because they can raise money, they've got good ties to the constituencies, the Democratic Party, and most of all, they're what I call aircraft carriers. Running for president is incredibly hard. You need to hire people. You need to have a vision for the country. You need to have things you can talk about. You need to be good in media. You need a feel for the grassroots. You need to be able to go in any state and campaign. And I think those two guys, they're just, they're. You can call them aircraft carriers or thoroughbreds or great political athletes. They're not perfect. They're not perfect to win the nomination. I still have a feeling Noosa may not run. I'm still remain alone in that camp. And they may not win general election, but they are to me, head and shoulders right now above everybody else. When I ask people who the strongest general election candidate is of these eight, or anybody else they might put on the list, almost everybody says either Newsom or Shapiro. And this concept of electability. The voters in a nomination fight care about electability some cycles, it seems, more than others. I think that's going to be at a premium for Democrats. They don't want four more years of a Republican president. And so the fact that so many experts look at Shapiro and Newsom and that would include donors as well as the top candidates to win a general election, I think is one of the many reasons I've got them at 1 and 2. Okay. Harris? I moved her up to 3. I'm more confident than I was before she's going to run. And I also think she's shown signs that she understands in conversations she's had with folks, she understands her strengths. There are people who think her time has passed and she had her opportunity in 2004, she shouldn't run again. She won't do well. But grassroots fundraising support from key Democratic constituencies, including women and black voters, and the fact that she has done it before, twice. Right. She knows what it's like. I've got her moved up now. Again, I think it's a fragile candidacy if she does run, and I think she does want to run, and that's not true of everybody on this list necessarily, but we'll see when she actually goes out there, can she raise the money grassroots and from big donors? I'll be curious to see. I've moved Governor Pritzker up a lot. I'm still skeptical of his ability to defend his record in Illinois, but he's got billions of dollars, he's a billionaire. And I look at the people above him. They're all fragile in one way or another. Even the two I put at the very top, Newsom and Shapiro. Pritzker is almost certainly going to run. He's got the money to run and he's got good relationships within the party. So I just think that he brings to the table so many things that particularly the money that other people may not get. They may decide to run and they can't raise it. Pete Buttigieg, number five, moved him down in part not because of anything bad he did. I actually think he's had a pretty good month. Started sending out emails to his donors and supporters, started planning some pretty high profile events. The reason I moved him down primarily is because of Pritzker and Harris moving up and taking the slots away from him. But also because there is a lot of doubt amongst my sources. A lot of them don't even think he belongs on the list. They just don't think his. His time is now. AOC Alexandria Ocasio Cortez moved her up. I'm still skeptical she's gonna run, but this lane that she would be in and Lanes, I think are overrated. People talk about the moderate lane or whatever it is, but the party's energy, the, the progressive wing of the party, the Sanders wings, did very well in 2016, did very well in 2020, I think would have done well if there hadn't been an incumbent in 2024. And if she runs, she'll raise the money, she'll get the attention. She's got that lane. Why did I add Ro Khanna to the list? House member. House members typically don't do well because this is a guy who has gotten a lot of attention for the Epstein files, for this billionaire tax in California. He's proven to be very adept at being in the conversation, of being on tv, of being on social media and of having a populist sensibility about things. He's being attacked by Silicon Valley, he's being attacked by some Jewish groups, pro Israel groups, and he's standing right in there. Not everybody's going to agree with him. But if Ocasio Cortez doesn't run, Ro Khanna may be in that lane. He's a big supporter of Bernie Sanders presidential campaign. He, he's based in Silicon Valley. He grew up in Pennsylvania. Interesting biography. And whereas in the December reporting for my reported monologue, literally no one suggested I put Ro Khanna on the list, many of the people this time, many of the Democrats said, yes, you should add him. He's rising. And then lastly, Rahm Emanuel. Rahm Emanuel is a very well known figure in the Democratic Party and he's another one. Or people say, like with Buttigieg, some people say definitely belongs on the list. Some people say he shouldn't be on the list at all because he's not going to be able to do it. He is. Talk about lanes. He's running like Bill Clinton did in 92. He's saying my party has moved too far left on some issues, very much focused on education to reach parents. That's a big, a big issue that he's got experience on as a former White House chief of staff for Barack Obama, former mayor of Chicago. And he's running hard. He's out there doing events. He was in Mississippi this past week. He's on TV all the time. He can raise enough money to be in this race. His friends say he is going to run. He wants to get on the debate stage. He thinks he can really be a standout figure in what could be a very crowded debate stage. We don't know exactly who's going to run. A name that comes up a lot, not on the list. Mark Kelly, senator from Arizona, been very much in the spotlight on immigration, on fighting with Pete Hegseth over the video he made about following orders, illegal orders. I don't have him on the list right now because I don't think he's going to run. From talking to people in Arizona, from people who've worked with him politically, they think in the end he won't make the race. The minute he shows signs of making the race, I'll put him on the list. I guarantee you he's got a lot of appeal to folks in the party, national security credentials and this thing of standing up to Donald Trump. But right now I don't think he's going to run. So I can't put him on the list. But stay tuned. All right. Let's review. Now, one of the questions I asked the people I did reporting with is what's your biggest question about each of these people on my list? What's the biggest question you have that you want to see play out to understand just how good their chances are being the nominee? Let's take a look. First, Gavin Newsom, number one on the list. Here's the question People asked about Gavin Newsom. Can he handle the front runner slings and arrows? No doubt. Right now you hear from other Democrats who are trying to bring him down a peg. People are focused on him being the front runner. Has positives, but it's also got negatives, opposition research. He's had some very cushy profiles of late, including one in the Atlantic. But there are more stories coming. There'll be scrutiny of his personal life, scrutiny of his record in California, scrutiny of some of the things he said. He just came out against this, the thing that Ro Khanna is for in California, this ballot measure that hasn't qualified for the November ballot yet, but may well. That would put a big levy on billionaires living in the state, some of whom have already moved out. Newsom is going against the labor unions who support that measure. That's going to bring some, some slings and arrows. So people want to see in 2026 if he stays the front runner. And he will be more in demand, I think, than on anybody on this list to campaign for other people who are on the ballot in 2026. He's term limited out, so he won't be running fundraising for other people. Can he handle the front runner slings and arrows? That's the question for Newsom. Number two, Governor Shapiro in Pennsylvania who is running for reelection. Here's the question people have there. How does he balance 2026 where he's running for re election with his presidential ambitions? Going to be interesting to see. He wants to win a big victory. The Republicans know that. They know that if they want to slow Shapiro down, and a lot of Republicans think Shapiro would be the strongest general election candidate. It's a popular governor of the ultimate battleground state. So they're, they're going to use their opportunity as he runs for election to try to slow him down, to try to limit how well he does. And then there's House races in Pennsylvania, House very competitive House election. Shapiro wants to use his coattails to bring those people across the board. He wants to build up his fundraising list, all of these things. He can't lose sight of the need to win re election and to continue to govern the state. But people are curious to see how much does he make decisions that are at least seemingly geared towards being a strong presidential candidate in 2028. It's going to be fascinating to watch. All right, number three, question about Kamala Harris, okay, if she does run, how much can she consolidate her strengths? In theory, she starts with probably along with Newsom, the biggest fundraising list. Can she grow that? Can she start putting money in the bank? How much is she asked to campaign for candidates in the midterms? Be interesting to see. And how does she do in building up chits when she goes to campaign for other people? She's got a big advantage now with black female voters. How does she consolidate that people? People who are skeptical of her candidacy, and I talk to many who are, want to see what does she do with those strengths? Does she. Does she snowball them down the hill and grow the snowball in these areas in a way that makes her more formidable than her detractors and her doubters? See? Will be interesting to see. All right, number four, J.B. pritzker. What's the question? My sources are asking about him. How does he introduce himself to a wider audience? I suspect if J.D. pritzker walked into your office or walked down the street in your neighborhood, you might not recognize him. You might, but you might not. And what do people know about him who do recognize him? He's a billionaire. Maybe a little heavier than he'd like to be, although he's lost some weight. Governor of Illinois. But telling that story, you know, he's got an interesting life history and family history. Not just a billionaire, but some in his family, some. Some sadder moments, some tragedy in his family. How does he introduce himself? And again, he's got opportunity to give money to other candidates, to campaign in other places. I have been struck. When he's on tv, his appearances are either on the interview shows, they're either weak, where I don't think he's particularly adept, or they don't get much coverage like he was on a Sunday show this week. And I looked around to see how much pickup on TV and on social. There was not very much introducing himself, telling that story. Every president who's won has got some narrative arc about their life, some. Some thing that that's worked well. It's true of people who win the nomination. So what's the way he introduces himself to voters? That's what people I talk to want to see. Okay, Pete Buttigieg. Big question about Pete Buttigieg is can he fundraise his way to the top tier? He's got a very aggressive email list that he sends to folks and ask them to donate. He's got from his previous presidential campaign, good relationships with a core group of donors. People like to talk about all the different metrics, likability and who's good in an early state polling. There's all sorts of metrics you can use hard and soft metrics to say who's in a strong position. Fundraising, not the sexiest thing for some people. And people who don't like money and politics don't like the fact that it's so important. But trust me, it's important. A lot of people who won't run in the end won't run because they'll talk to their finance people and they'll say, how much can I raise? And Newsom is going to raise a lot. If Harris runs, she'll raise a lot. Pritzker is going to have a lot. You don't need to raise the most money to win the nomination, but it sure helps. It's rare that the person who raises the most money in either party is not the nominee. So fundraising is critical. And Buttigieg has has a head start here. He's got a big email list and a group of bundlers from his previous race. But I believe he's got the potential if things break right for him and he's doing decently in a lot of the polls, I believe he has the potential to be a top tier candidate in fundraising. And if he is, that means people are going to start paying more attention to him because that's a metric reporters can report on every time there's a reporting period or the campaign announced a fundraising call. If he can say to folks, my grassroots support is there, my elite support is there, and you can tell that from my fundraising, I think it'll put him in a pretty good position to have the opportunity to be treated like a top tier candidate and allay some of the concerns people have, some of the questions they have, some of the doubts they have about whether he can be a strong candidate. Okay, AOC Alexandria Ocasio, Cortez. What are people asking about her? Is she going to run? Almost everybody I talked to said if she runs, she's at least top five most likely Democratic nominee. But they're not sure she's going to do it. She could stay in the House. She could quit politics. She could run for the Senate against Chuck Schumer. She's got a lot of options people want to see. Does she show her hand at all in 2026? Does she do anything to suggest how she sees her political future? If she runs right away, everybody's going to do an evaluation. How much can she actually raise? What early state voting states might she do well, and does she reach out to the center at all? Or does she run as a Sanders far left candidate? All these questions are being discussed now, but they'll go into a higher gear if she decides to run. All right, the two new folks on my list, Ro Khanna, Rahm Emanuel. Ro Khanna, what are people asking? Can he convert the buzz and momentum that he's generated in 2025 into 2026, into something that's more lasting, into a strength that is not just short term. He's filling a vacuum. With the exception of Newsom and occasionally Shapiro, maybe occasionally some of the others. There's a vacuum. There's an opportunity for folks to go on tv, to go on social media. And he's done that very adeptly. He's a tech guy. He's from Silicon Valley where he represents now. And he did it first and foremost on the, on the Epstein files where he was the leading Democrat and pushing for the disclosure bill. But he's done it on this billionaires tax in California. Other issues very out there. He's alienated some supporters of Israel. He's alienated some of his own constituents in Silicon Valley. He's picked fights, but he hasn't wilted. And I hear from people all the time who say this guy is making more enemies than friends, but he is being seen a populist wing of the party, the progressive wing of the party. People like it. They like that he's standing up to Donald Trump. They like that he's standing up to the, the, the oligarchs in the party and in Silicon Valley, his own constituents. So can he convert? I talked to a lot of skeptics who said, ah, once the other people who are serious about running, who are better known, et cetera, once they, they, they, they start working it harder, that kind of will fade. But I, I'm less of a doubter than I was before. That's why I put them on the list. And, and, and my source is less daddy. They, they want to see if he maintains this aggressive, very tech savvy, social media savvy posture of saying if there's a big national debate, he's going to be part of it, even if, even if he takes some controversial positions in the context of doing that. Lastly, Rahm Emanuel, again, number eight Right now, is he more of a concept or is he an actual candidate? He looks like he's going to run, but some people say he's running to be part of the conversation or to get a big job, maybe be somebody's running mate. It'd be an interesting thing to see so much of the analysis of this race now done by elites and every elite in politics and journalism. Knows Rahm everyone. I've known him since 1991. He is a, he is a constant presence now over decades in green rooms, at fancy dinners in our politics, in our government. And so people want to see what's he like when he's an actual candidate. We know how elites feel about him. They all know him. They maybe have mixed feelings, but they know him. A lot of goodwill. How do voters feel about him? He's done travel to Iowa, he's done travel to other states. But when he's an actual candidate, how do voters respond? And I think if he can, if he can move up in the polls or he can have good exchanges with voters at town halls and on the campaign trail, I think people will say, well, he's not just a concept. He's not just a guy who is trying to fill that Bill Clinton lane of critiquing the party, but he's an actual candidate who's going for it. And that would make a big difference. As I mentioned, the two folks who dropped off Andy Beshear and Wes Moore, I'm willing to move them back on if my reporting suggests they're going to run. I think in the end neither of them will run. That's my sense of but even if they do, I think they're both seen as more valuable stocks than they really are. Let's see if they actually run. I think both of them will run into more turbulence than, than some do. But let's see. And I'm going to continue to report on whether they will be candidates or not. And I think if either of them makes it clear they're going to run and they've got a theory of the case about running, I could see them back on the list as soon as next month. We shall see. That is the January edition of 8 for 28. Loved. Love doing the reporting on this. Here's so many interesting things from my sources and very grateful to the Democrats and the two Republicans who helped me on background flesh the list out. So that's round two. We'll be back with round three next month. Want to hear from you what you think, what, what's right about my list. Who, who moved up maybe too far, who should be dropping down or maybe off the list entirely. Would love to hear what you think. Send me your thoughts on today's 8 for 28 rankings. Email to next up halpern@gmail.com. love to get the emails on everything but particularly be interested here and they'll help me shape this segment for when we do it again. So please send in your emails. Full conversation always available to you on YouTube. Of this program, go to Next Up's YouTube channel. You get the full episodes, there's bonus videos on there and stuff you can't see anywhere else. So go to YouTube.com@nextup. Halperin subscribe to the channel. Please tell your friends like it and share it. Or you can listen. If you don't have the ability to sit at a computer or on your phone and watch on YouTube, you can listen to us as a podcast. Many of you are doing that right now. Nexters come in all shapes and sizes, all variety of platform distribution. So you can go to Spotify, Apple, wherever you get your podcast. Turn on the downloads so you get every new episode automatically. I'll hit your phone the minute they drop on Tuesdays and Thursdays. That's how you can do it. This list is gonna change certainly in February and beyond. And when it does, you'll get it first right here on the next round of 8 for 28 right only here on NextUp. Grateful to you for listening to that. We're gonna take a quick break. When we come back, we're going to have my list picked apart by two people with great knowledge of Democratic politics. Patty Solis Doyle, who a longtime Democratic strategist who ran Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign in 2008, and Karen Skelton, now a visiting scholar at Stanford University and a longtime Democratic presidential campaign strategist. Looking forward to having the two of them basically rip apart everything I did and tell us all what they think about the current 8 for 28. That's Patty Solis Doyle and Karen Skelton. Next up, you're being lied to. They tell you to max out your 401k, your IRA and then make you beg for permission to use your own money. It's time to get the truth and discover a better way to grow and protect your money. Bank on yourself is the proven retirement plan. Alternative banks and Wall street desperately hope you never hear about it gives you guaranteed growth and retirement income that never goes backward. When markets tumble, your principal and growth are locked in with tax free retirement income and a zero tax rate under current law. Access your money anytime for emergencies or opportunities. No penalties, no restrictions and it keeps growing like you never touched it. Built in inflation protection means your savings grow every year, good times or bad. Plus you'll always know the minimum guaranteed value of your retirement savings when you need them. You can get a free report that reveals how much you can bank on yourself and enjoy tax free retirement income, guaranteed growth and control of your own money. Just go to bankonyourself.com mark and get your free report. That's bankonyourself.com mark again. One more time, bankonyourself.com mark now is.
- [27:43]
Dr. Horton Sales Announcer
Your time to get into a new Dr. Horton home by taking advantage of its national red tag sales event going on right now through January 25th. Stop by any of its participating communities and find select red tag homes at incredible pricing. So whether you're buying your first home or looking for an upgrade, you don't want to miss the red tag sales event going on right now. Discover the Dr. Horton Difference. Tap your screen now or visit Dr. Horton.com Dr. Horton, America's builder and equal Housing opportunity Builder.
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Karen Skelton
Choose to lean into it.
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Mark Halperin
Every Mazda is engineered to give you effortless control. I wake up. All right. So next up, more on our 8 for 28 January rankings. It's early. Always want to remind people it's early. Yes, it's early, but we're still talking about it. Reminder, this is for the nomination, not for the general election. This is just the eight most likely to be the nominees. I'll say again, say again, factoring in also the chances that people will run, if Michelle Obama was on the list, she'd be very high up, but she's not going to run, so she's not on the list. And lastly, these are snapshots of where we are now. This is not a prediction. I'll say again, this is in the spirit of where we are at the moment with that. Next up. Joining me now, Patti Solis Doyle, Democratic strategist. She was Hillary Clinton's campaign manager in the 2008 campaign. And scare. And Karen Skelton, longtime Democratic strategist, also has worked at the presidential level many times and is currently Hoity Toity visiting scholar at Stanford University, the Door School of Sustainability. Very grateful to you both for being here. All right. Happy New Year. Let's go through it again. Here's the list from last time. Go ahead and put it up for everybody so you can see. These are the December rankings. Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Andy beshear, Wesmore and J.B. pritzker and AOC these lists, I'll say again, this is based on my reporting with Democrats around the country asking them. I start with a baseline list and then we move folks around. Here's what reporting in the last couple weeks has yielded in the change. The top two again remain the same. Gavin Newsom And Josh Shapiro. But changes galore beneath that. Vice President Harris, I have her moving up to number three, Governor Pritzker of Illinois moving up to number four, Pete Buttigieg dropping down to five, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez moving up to six. And then two new names on the list. This time we'll talk about them. Ro Khanna and Rahm Emanuel, both well known to our guests. And then two folks dropped off, Andy Beshear and Westmore. So that's where we are for this month. Again, the top two remain the same, Newsom and Shapiro. So, Karen, let's start there. Do you agree with me that those two are the top tier, I think by themselves, but that they're one and two, or do you want to dissent from that point of view?
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Karen Skelton
I mean, a snapshot in time. I do think that I think Gavin has earned his place at the top of that list for the fact that he has been a fighter and really come out strong. California, you know, is exceeding expectations on the economy and on economic growth. He has been on a world stage taking on Trump. He looks like a leader. He's having fun and he's his state of the state, as one longtime political columnist George Skelton wrote this week, was one of the best ever given in the state. And I think he's a, he's somebody who will be relatable. So. But do I think he, you know, it's a long way away. Yeah. Shapiro. I, I'm not sure, I'm not sure about the number two spot there for him. I always think Pennsylvania is the best bellwether in the country, as we all know. We've all worked there. But I'm not sure I've seen enough from him recently to keep him there.
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Mark Halperin
All right, before Patty weighs in on the question of my one, two, who would you put at the number two slot, Karen, if not Shapiro?
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Karen Skelton
You know, I'm really starting to think of a person who's not on your list, but Mark Kelly, and the reason I say that is because as the country gets more and more chaotic and Trump is, you know, chasing more squirrels around the world and in our nation, people are going to increasingly want stability. And he, he offers that in a way that might be something that is perfect for the time.
- [32:38]
Mark Halperin
Right. So somebody who's not on my list, you put it number two. Other people have raised him with me. The reason I don't have him on the list at all is I don't think he's going to run based on my reporting. I think he may look at it. But I just don't think in the end he's going to be a candidate. I think too many of the things you need to do to run for president that you two know better than I do. I just don't think he's prepared to do in starting in about a year. Patty, what do you think of my 1, 2. I'm sure you have Newsom as number one, because everybody does. But do you agree with Karen or me that Shapiro is number two?
- [33:06]
Patty Solis Doyle
I agree with you that he's definitely number two. I think, first of all, he's done really, really well in Pennsylvania, number one. Number two, Republicans are afraid of him. Republicans are afraid of him being on the ticket, whether it's on the number one spot, number two spot. Pennsylvania is a critical state, as we all know, in general election, and his favorabilities are great. He's running for reelection, so he's going to be out there a lot in this next year. So I think he's running on getting, getting things done as the governor. So I think, I think, yeah, I think he definitely earns the right for number two. With the caveat that let's see how he does on his re and what kind of. I think he's going to win. Obviously, if he loses, then he's off the list, but I think he's going to win. Let's see what kind of margin he wins by.
- [34:03]
Mark Halperin
Okay, let's talk about my number three, Vice President Harris. I moved her up because I'm more thinking she is going to run. And I think her, her, if she can consolidate her advantages, that she has her support among certain constituencies in the group, her email fundraising list to raise money online, and the fact that there aren't a lot of women necessarily going to run. I think that's all. And obviously her experience as a candidate. So, Karen, does she belong in the top three, or are you more skeptical than I am about her chances right now?
- [34:34]
Karen Skelton
Yeah, I hate to say it because I have been a supporter of hers, as you know, for many, many, many years, but I don't see it. I mean, I, I, she wants to run. But, you know, it's the funny thing about politics. It's your time comes and then it goes. And I think her time is gone. People don't want to, want to take her on. I also think you have to think about this 2028 presidential election in a, in the context of where it is in American history, you know, as our, you know, our, our friend the wizard Doug Sosnik has Written about. You know, this is a post Trump election, generational change, an election looking forward. It's much like the election in 1960 with Eisenhower and Kennedy, and we're looking for this Kennedy type figure. And remember, he ran against lbj, so you have to ask, like, why did he win against LBJ at that time? And part of it was he was a World War II hero. Part of it was he was Camelot. Part of it was he was very moderate. You know, he was. Again, he didn't take on civil rights, which was the. An issue of the time. And Kamala, in many ways, I think, fits into the LBJ more into the establishment lbj. I mean, obviously, she's the sitting Vice President of the United States, so I just don't think her time is right and her and her timing for this particular election isn't right.
- [36:04]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, well said. And the point of view, Representative, was my point of view, and it's the point of view of many people I talked to in reporting this out. But, Patty, thoughts on Karen's view that I have Harris too high? Basically?
- [36:18]
Patty Solis Doyle
Yeah, I completely agree with Karen. I. I know. I. I believe she very much wants to run again. It's, you know, people who run and lose, they want to run again because they, you know, they've got something to prove, like, it wasn't my fault. You know, they want to. They want to be able to prove that they can do it. I'm not. She has some positives. Absolutely. I supported her in 2024. I'm certainly a huge proponent of electing a woman president. I agree with you. I don't think there's going to be a lot of Women running in 2028, which is sad to me, but I do think that her time has passed in terms of. Voters are kind of been there, done that. We need to move on. And particularly Democrats. I think they're tired of the party writ large sort of coronating somebody or giving us someone. They want to see our large primate. And they've already seen her twice. Right. They saw her in 2020, and they saw her in 2024. And I. Time has passed.
- [37:32]
Mark Halperin
The last thing I'll say about Vice President Harris. A question. Assuming she becomes the nominee and then wins the presidency, will you both dance with me at her inauguration?
- [37:40]
Patty Solis Doyle
Yes, I will do that. Absolutely.
- [37:43]
Mark Halperin
Okay. The biggest move in the list for me is J.B. pritzker, who I moved from 7 to 4, and I'll tell you why I did it. He. He. He's got money. And I think, as you Both know the, the demands of fundraising are relentless and Newsom is going to set the pace. He'll raise more than anybody, probably. And if, if Newsom doesn't run or is a bust and Shapiro is a bust, and you guys are right about, about Harris Pritzker, who I think is as likely to run as anyone just can run because he's got money. So I'm wondering, leaving that aside because we all know he's got money, what are his strengths? What justifies my sources put rating him so fine, moving him up. Patty, start with you. What are the strengths of. You're from Illinois. What are the strengths of the governor of Illinois in the primary process, the nomination process, besides. Besides as well.
- [38:34]
Patty Solis Doyle
Yeah, it's so funny, I said almost those exact same words, Mark, at a, I don't know, party where we were talking who's going to run, who's not going to run, etc. And I said, you know, JB's got money and with a lot of people running, it's going to be difficult to raise money from the party and he can just self fund. So I think that's going to put him automatically in it for the long haul in the, in the primary season. But having said that, I mean, Illinois is just came out to sue the Trump administration over immigration and, and ICE agents coming into the state. So I think that's just a part of his mantle of being a fighter. You know, he hasn't gotten as much attention and press coverage as being the, you know, leader of the fight like Gavin Newsom has. But he's out there and I think he is quite eloquent. I mean, the state of Illinois has some problems, so I think that's going to be a challenge for him. But I think he is taking it to Trump in a real way and I think Democrats like that right now and they want to see that he's a fighter.
- [39:51]
Mark Halperin
Karen, if the Pritzker camp asked you or the governor said to you I want to end 2026 in as strong a position as possible, one thing he can obviously do is campaign for and give money to candidates who are running, particularly in the battleground states and the, and the early voting states, which we don't know yet, but we can guess that what else could he do this year to solidify his place in this?
- [40:13]
Karen Skelton
Yeah, I mean, I think the country and definitely California are riddled with carcasses of the rich. I mean, money can't buy you love. And in this election we're going to have to show good ideas on the economy. And that's what he should do. He should focus on ideas out of Illinois that help people on the bread and butter issues of their lives.
- [40:36]
Mark Halperin
So he's got to figure out how to convey that. And of course, anytime you self fund. We saw this with Mike Bloomberg, you give up grassroots, you give up people getting skin in the game because. Because it's hard to convince people to give you $5 or $5,000 if they keep reading in the paper that you're a billionaire who's writing checks. And that forfeits a real necessity, which is, again, grassroots. All right, Pete Buttigieg, as controversial as anybody in my reporting. Some people think he's a top tier candidate. Some people scoff at the notion that he could possibly be the nominee. Karen, if you picked one of those camps, which would it be and why?
- [41:10]
Karen Skelton
Holding his own. I mean, he's universally liked. He's a, he's a one on one person who. People leave, you know, after meeting him and they, they. It's, it's. He's almost got. Of course he doesn't have, because nobody. That has a Bill Clinton effect, but he almost has that kind of a shine about him. I mean, he's in the double digits. I think right now. He's probably been around the double digits for a while. And I think that he's, he's definitely a guy with a lot of good ideas and he's articulate and I say he's in it for the long run.
- [41:48]
Mark Halperin
Okay, so more. More as a top candidate as opposed to impossible. Patty, agree with that or disagree?
- [41:55]
Patty Solis Doyle
No, I disagree. I. Look, I think he's incredibly smart, definitely has a lot of ideas. I really admire the fact that he's willing to go anywhere and talk to anybody, but I'm old school here. I just don't think that you can be a top tier candidate and not have support from the African American community. And he's had a lot of time to work on that and it hasn't moved. So I think very problematic.
- [42:21]
Mark Halperin
He's my biggest dropper. I dropped him from 3 to 5 in part because I moved Pritzker and Harris up just as an acid test. Who's more likely to be the nominee, Buttigieg or Kamala Harris? Karen.
- [42:33]
Karen Skelton
Kamala.
- [42:34]
Mark Halperin
Kamala.
- [42:35]
Karen Skelton
Hate to say it. Yeah, yeah.
- [42:37]
Mark Halperin
And Patty, you agree with that, I assume?
- [42:38]
Patty Solis Doyle
Yes.
- [42:39]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. So even though you both are not particularly bullish on her, it's a reflection on what you think of his chances.
- [42:45]
Karen Skelton
Well, let me ask you this. I mean, I mean, I say her because of all of the infrastructure around her.
- [42:49]
Mark Halperin
Yeah.
- [42:50]
Karen Skelton
How to, you know, do this with him? Is it the black community? What's that about? Do you know? Do you, do you understand that? Is that about being gay? What is that about?
- [43:04]
Mark Halperin
Well, how do you go first? I've got, I've got ideas but Patty, you go first.
- [43:09]
Patty Solis Doyle
I'm not sure what it's about. Maybe it's about being gay. I don't really think so. My biggest concern is he's had this problem since he ran in 2020. It is now going to be 2028 and the needle hasn't moved one iota and that's significantly problematic, I think.
- [43:30]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, I think part it's because he's gay. I think also that he's not very well known. Like people we know know him but I don't think he's known by the broader electorate very well. And to the extent they've even heard his name, he's got a distinctive name. I just don't think they associate with him with, with anything that they would care about as voters. The thing I'm interested in about him or amongst the things is can he raise grassroots money in a significant way? He's been sending out emails to his list. He's got a pre big list and they're very much written with an eye. I don't know if they're by humans or chat GPT but they seem written towards an eye of trying to stoke the list to try to get people to give him five bucks so they can, they can add their names. And I'll be curious to see because I think he has the potential to raise grassroots money in a big way. He's a pretty good bundler. He's got a core team of, of donors. But I'll be curious to see how he does there. Okay. AOC Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. I've moved her to six from eight so I've moved her up a bit but I'm still skeptical she's going to run. Do you all think if she does run she's potentially a top tier candidate? Potentially. If she does run, Patty?
- [44:37]
Patty Solis Doyle
Yes, if she does run, I think she skyrockets to the at least 1, 2 or 3. I think she's going to get a great deal of grassroots supports, as you mentioned, how important that is. I think she's going to mobilize the progressive wing of the party which is very, very strong. She'll have the. The populist message is, is driving a lot of voters on both sides of the aisle. So I think she'll be able to.
- [45:08]
Karen Skelton
Really.
- [45:11]
Patty Solis Doyle
Have a strong voice there. So I think, I mean, I don't know if she'll win the nomination, but I think she will be in it for the long run during the primary season and certainly one, two or three throughout. Yeah.
- [45:23]
Mark Halperin
Karen, do you agree or disagree with that?
- [45:25]
Karen Skelton
I disagree. I think. I, I mean, excuse me. God. I agree. I think that she hits a lot of the ticks off a lot of the criteria for a 2028 candidate at this time. She's young. She will appeal to the populist demographic. I think she'll appeal to the non college educated women, which are a huge demographic that we need. And I think that, I mean, I think she'll be in the top five. Not sure about the top three. And she'll definitely stir things up. She's got to figure out, you know, that, that tricky high wire act of getting towards the center during a primary, but that will be her challenge.
- [46:16]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Okay. The two people who are new on the list, number seven, number eight. First is Ro Khanna. Almost nobody even mentioned him in my first round of reporting this month. People have brought him up, I think in part maybe large part because of two things. One is if AOC doesn't run the Sanders wing and wings are overrated and lanes are overrated. But I think clearly there's energy in the party there. There's really no one else on the list to satisfy that part of the party. He's become very adept at getting in the news cycle. He did on Epstein, but he's done on other issues as well. He's done it on this billionaires tax. So, Karen, leaving aside if you think he belongs on the list or not or not, what have you seen in him that do you think has caused so many Democrats to say to me this month, you should put Khan on the list now what, what is, what are people keying off of?
- [47:04]
Karen Skelton
Yeah, I mean, the Democrat, because the Democrats have no leader and because they have no, you know, good popular unifying issues to run on. They're, they're, they're being squirrels and they're running towards, you know, the next best flavor of ice cream. And he's. That because he did take on, you know, he, he's very good, of course, comes from Silicon Valley. He's very good at using technology. He knows how to amplify his views. And I think that he's popular at the moment, but I don't think he's in it for the, for the long run.
- [47:45]
Mark Halperin
Okay, Patty do you see more upside for him or do you agree with Karen that he's. He's popping now, but. But this will be limited?
- [47:51]
Patty Solis Doyle
Yeah, I agree with Karen 100%. I think this is a very limited time for him and only because there are so many other people who are considering who will run that I think he gets drowned out. I mean, he's popping now for sure, but I think he gets drowned out at the end.
- [48:12]
Mark Halperin
Okay, last on the list, Rom. We call him Rom because he's a longtime friend of both of you and of mine. I've known him for, you know, since the early 90s, as you, you both have. Does he belong on the list? Again, a lot of debate amongst my sources. Some say he's. He's got Elaine as well. He's got the Clinton. I'm going to say tough things. I'm going to be the candidate to talk to parents about no social media. And he obviously can raise money or he could do a $2 billion super PAC. On the other hand, it's ROM. And I don't even think I need to explain to you two, let alone the audience. You know, is he really someone who's going to be seen as a credible commander in chief, president, United States, and nominee of the party when his record in Chicago really alienated a lot of the base? So, Patty, should we take Rahm seriously? Does it belong on the list or with all due respect to Rahm, he should go be someone's campaign manager.
- [49:05]
Patty Solis Doyle
I think he does belong on the list just because he's so smart and so disciplined on message. And I think he will make, first of all, I think he will run, so I think he'll be mixed. And second of all, if he does run, I think he will make everybody else better and smarter and think about what ideas they are running on and challenge them. And of course he's going to be challenged. But I just think, you know, his recent trip to Mississippi, you know, was. Was pretty darn good, and he got a lot of coverage for it. The way he sort of identified the two lanes, sort of the fighter lane, but then the renewal lane, which is really about ideas and bringing the middle class back. I just think he's going to make people smarter. So I do believe he will do it, and I do believe he belongs on the list because he'll stay in it, you know, maybe not through the whole primary, but he's going to stay in it long enough to make other people better.
- [50:13]
Mark Halperin
Karen, he'll have enough money. He'll work hard. He'll be on the debate stage where he thinks he can do well. So do you see it as Patty does, that Rom belongs on the list.
- [50:21]
Karen Skelton
100%, and I put him on the list for a long time. I think that he. Look, his personality is a Serbic, and that's the times we live in. I mean, I think if you, you know, look at the mayor of Minneapolis after that horrific shooting last week, you know, and he said, get the fuck out of our city. That's Rom. Rom's time has come now. He's. He's got experience in Congress. Weirdly, I do think that the. That foreign policy is going to insinuate itself into the primary. He's got. That he knows how to speak about it. He's got executive experience. I mean, in the same way that I think Kamala's time has passed, I think this. There is this narrow time in which. Who would have ever thought that it would be a time for Rahm Emanuel? But I do think this is the time.
- [51:16]
Mark Halperin
Is there anybody not on the list? And again, both Westmore and Andy Beshear were on it, and I've taken them off. Is there anybody not on the list you think belongs on there?
- [51:23]
Karen Skelton
Mark Kelly.
- [51:25]
Mark Halperin
Yeah.
- [51:25]
Karen Skelton
If he runs.
- [51:26]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, I just. As soon as I see him do anything serious about running, I'll put him on the list. I just don't see it. Patty, anybody, any name missing do you think should be on there?
- [51:35]
Karen Skelton
No.
- [51:35]
Patty Solis Doyle
Mark Kelly was. I was going to say Mark Kelly, too, so.
- [51:38]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. All right, but let me. Let me make it tougher for you. Who should I take off to put Mark Kelly on? Maybe from what you guys have said, take off. Pete Buttigieg or Ro Khanna? Yeah, Ro Khanna. Yeah. Yeah, I guess. I guess that would be the swap I'd make. But. But it looks to me like Khan is running and Kelly isn't, so it's hard for me to do that. Lastly, the question I raised in the monologue, I heard from so many of your colleagues and often people, you know, that they're disappointed in the list, that. That. That while they're nice people on there, people with some accomplishment, that it's not just like a superstar list. Do you all share that sentiment, or do you think over time there'll be five or six strong choices?
- [52:20]
Patty Solis Doyle
I think a primary will make maybe three or four really super strong choices. I think that's what a primary does, right? People kick the tires, people attack you, your opponents attack you, voters attack you, and we get to see what you're. You know, made of. And we get to see whether you have the grit and the power and the strength to, you know, continue on. And so I think we'll see. I think it's too early to say, oh, none of these people are two of these people.
- [52:58]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Karen, does it list depress you as it does some people, or. No.
- [53:03]
Karen Skelton
God, no. I mean, that's just whining from our party. I mean, this list, what would people have said about John F. Kennedy or Clinton or Obama? You know, this is a change election. This is a generational change. It's going to be after Trump, and the only luminaries would be, you know, 80 years old. So, no, I don't find this at all depressing. This is what happens when you open the door to a new generation. And I'm very satisfied with it. And I completely agree with Patty. This primary is going to make somebody or some people stronger, and we'll have a good candidate.
- [53:39]
Mark Halperin
Okay, last question for both of you. Karen. First, if you could pick one of the eight to be the nominee with the goal of winning the general, not knowing who the Republicans will nominate, etc. If you could pick one, who's the strongest general election candidate right now from your point of view, Karen?
- [53:54]
Karen Skelton
I gotta go with Gavin.
- [53:56]
Mark Halperin
Okay. Patty?
- [53:58]
Patty Solis Doyle
Josh.
- [53:59]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. All right. That's the debate. And that's why those, I have those two. One, two. Because almost everybody would say one of those two. And I think electability is always at least a bit of a factor. Karen Skelton and Patty Sluystor, so grateful to you both. There's literally, as someone said yesterday, there's no two people I'd rather hear from on this topic than the two of you. So very grateful to you.
- [54:20]
Patty Solis Doyle
Thank you so much, Mark.
- [54:22]
Mark Halperin
Thank you. And happy New Year. And we'll, we'll update the ratings rankings next month, so get ready for February. And next up here, Mike Rogers, who's running for Senate in Michigan, a Republican. Mike Rogers is next up. Hey, folks. You know, going online without ExpressVPN is like not having a case for your phone. Most of the time you'll probably be fine, but all it takes is one drop and you'll wish you spent those extra few dollars on protection. Public WI fi at cafes, hotels, airports. It's wide open. Hackers on the same network can grab your passwords, bank logins, cards. It doesn't take much skill to do it either. Your data worth up to a grand on the dark web. ExpressVPN encrypts everything in an unbreakable tunnel. No one touches it. I always fired up on the road where there are airports, coffee shops, even guest networks at friends places. One tap and I'm locked down. Peace of mind is everything when you're handling sensitive stuff. Super easy one button app works on every device. Billion year encryption and right now plans start at just $3.49 a month. That's 12 cents a day. It's rated number one by CNET and the Verge. So secure your data online today by visiting ExpressVPN NextUp. That's ExpressVP VPN E X P R E S S V P N.com NextUp to find out how you can get up to four extra months. Again. ExpressVPN.com NextUp the new year brings new health goals and wealth goals. Protecting your identity is an important step. Your info is in endless places that could expose you to identity theft leading to lost funds. LifeLock monitors millions of data points per second. If your identity is stolen, our restoration specialists will fix it, guaranteed or your money back. Resolve to make identity, health and wealth part of your new year's goals with LifeLock, save up to 40% your first year. Visit LifeLock.com Special offer terms apply. Joining me now and next up, Mike Rogers, longtime member of the foreign policy, national security establishment of this country and former member of the House. Representative and statewide candidate in Michigan again trying to win a U.S. senate seat that's currently open, very crowded Democratic primary. Mike Rogers, amongst other things, has received the endorsements of Donald Trump. And in my experience, if someone wins the president's endorsement in a primary, I can stop worrying about the primary and focus on the general. So Congressman Rogers, welcome and thank you for being here.
- [56:56]
Mike Rogers
Hey, Mark, great. Thanks for having me. It's great to be here.
- [57:00]
Mark Halperin
Michigan used to be more of a purple state, even a red state for a time. And lately statewide elections have been won by Democrats. You're trying to change that by winning the Senate seat. What's happened in Michigan? Why has it become more of a blue state? The president did win it, but you're, you're, you've had governors and Senate races largely won by Democrats. What, what's driven that?
- [57:22]
Mike Rogers
Well, that was about, I'm going to, you know, better part of a decade ago when the Democrats kind of swept through Michigan and In the Senate, U.S. senate, we haven't had a Republican in 32 years. So they've had, you know, a well established machine here. I think what you're seeing is that machine starting to come apart in the last six years, Mark, when the Democrats have been in charge of all of this here in Lansing. We've lost 30,000 manufacturing jobs. Our education went from top tier to now we're 44th in the country. We have seen our electric electricity prices soar, our auto insurance prices soar. I mean, the weight on an average working family has been tremendous. So I think what you're seeing today and why I'm leading all three of the Democrats that are vying for their nomination in polling is people are saying, hey, enough already. We tried this big government, big spending, we got higher inflation, higher grocery prices, less jobs, and people are still moving out of the state. So I think what you're seeing now is people re evaluating and coming back, which is why this is now a competitive seat. A few years back you would have said Michigan's just not a competitive seat for a Republican. It is this time for sure.
- [58:40]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, about 20 minutes ago, which is to say in 2024, you ran another Michigan Senate seat, lost to Alicia Slotkin, as we like to say in Michigan. I believe you lost by a smaller margin. The number of people who will watch a typical Michigan football game, definitely less.
- [58:55]
Mike Rogers
Than would watch a Michigan football game. About 19,000 votes out of 5.6 million. That works out to about 232 votes per county. But who's count?
- [59:06]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, so very close, very close race. Why run again? You know, you've got other, other things you could do in the private sector with family. Why after that disappointing, very close loss, why run again?
- [59:19]
Mike Rogers
A couple of things. The issues that are facing America are the same today that they were last year, which got my wife and I to, to. To go into the race in the first place. And I look at Michigan, I am afraid for Michigan's future. If we don't have a change, if we don't have people who are only invested in trying to make Michigan work again, we're going to be in trouble in this state. You know, my have. My family is spread all over the state of Michigan, my wife's family all over the state of Michigan. And when you look at our ability to compete in manufacturing, to regain our position in the defense industrial base, to improve our education, we have plans to do all of that making housing more affordable here, have plans for that as well. That's why we're back in. I do believe I can walk in on the first day. I understand how to build coalitions in the legislature. Did that when I was a member of the House and get started on getting this thing turned around. We are on track to be the bottom of the country in education, losing more manufacturing jobs while the rest of the country is gaining. I think I can be the guy that turns that around for the state of Michigan.
- [60:29]
Mark Halperin
Let's talk about housing. The president and your party in Washington are struggling to come up with ideas that will actually make housing both more available and more affordable. That's, that's really the silver bullet. The extent there is one is increased supply. So what are the Mike Rogers ideas to make housing in Michigan more affordable?
- [60:46]
Mike Rogers
Yeah, I love it. A couple of things. I started the 529 education plans here in the state of Michigan that have become wildly popular. And that's a vehicle for people to put money away to save for education. And by the way, some your grandmother can give, some your friends can give, some your siblings can throw a little bit in at birthday, and by the time you're ready to go to college, you have a nest egg there that you can use to pay for college tax free. When I went to Congress, I did that in the state legislature, went back to Congress, did the same thing, and Congress made it federally tax free so it could grow. One of the things that's a problem here is young people coming up with a down payment amount. They can make the payments. The down payment is the one that kind of is the deal killer for a whole bunch of people here. So I'm going to do a 529 plan version of housing for that. Everybody ought to be able to kick in. It can happen over time. If you don't use your 529 plan completely, and let's say you go into the skilled trades, that money can roll over into the housing 529 so that you can develop a down payment. And remember, you still have to be able to show you can make the payments on a house. But the biggest problem is the down payment. And by the way, if your parents give you the money for that accounts against you. I just don't. I just completely disagree. That's the right way to do this. This is a way that people can stand together, come up with a down payment, get younger people into housing, number one. Number two, right now, if you make every one of your rent payments, it doesn't count towards your credit. But if you miss one or two and they get reported, it counts against you. My argument is we ought to change that. If these young renters are making their payments, it ought to count toward their credit score. So that when I go to a bank, I have a better credit score, a more established score. That means lower interest Rates. So you start combining both ends of this, and I think we're going to have a real opportunity. The other thing I'm proposing, by the way, Mark, is in places like Detroit, in Pontiac and Flint, they've got a lot of distressed housing. And, you know, we try to do opportunity zones. Some of that works, some of it doesn't. I'm going to propose not a big government program that actually, you know, helps people buy those homes, putting these things together, but also saying, hey, guess what? If you're a builder, you take a chance in these blocks, these neighborhoods which are, you know, jointly identified between HUD and those cities, that builder will pay zero income tax on any of the property that he builds and sells in those areas. You know, we need to get a jump start on housing stock in cities like Detroit and Flint and Pontiac and other places. To me, this is the great way to do that. And we've been stalling on this for years. I mean, we. Detroit. Detroit counts how many houses it tears down as a successful way forward. I think we can change that. So you start putting all of this together, you're going to get a house that you can get into that you can afford. It's also going to increase supply. I'm pretty excited about this. Everybody that I've talked to about this in this across the state of Michigan loves it and can't wait for it to get started. And I keep telling them, little patience, get me elected and it'll get done.
- [63:59]
Mark Halperin
I've become kind of consumed with solving the housing problem, but I don't want to spend the whole time on it. But eager to see how your ideas get debated in the general election because those seem like things that a Democrat could support as well. They don't seem particularly partisan or skewed in a red way. So about AI, how does the Rogers family use AI right now in your lives?
- [64:21]
Mike Rogers
Well, I'm a part of a small business that does deep and dark web trolling. It's called Constella Intelligence. So we've used AI in that company to better identify stolen credentials that are for sale in the dark web. So I've seen that side of the benefit of it clearly. I think people use it in their daily lives, in presentation, development, other things. I believe once AI, and I'm also involved in quantum computing, was involved with a company called D Wave. When, when, when Quantum meets AI, you're going to get that really independent AI generation that people talk about a lot. And so I think we're a little ways off from that. But that's what's going to happen. We are pretty. Listen, AI is going to be important part of every business. As I tell young people around the state. Listen, if you're either going to happen to AI or AI is going to happen to you, don't let it take your job, master AI or at least understand it so that you can lay on top of it and add value with AI. So I think there's a lot of ways that we can use AI in the future, including advanced manufacturing and other things that will help workers here in the state earn higher wages and produce higher quality, you know, parts or industry needs as we go along. I'm pretty bullish on it. I don't. As long as we stay ahead of it. And then we could have a whole conversation, Mark, about what that means in defense and other things. I do believe we got to have some guardrails there.
- [65:56]
Mark Halperin
Ton of huge topics like housing, probably bigger. We could talk about it forever. Are you using it personally at all?
- [66:02]
Mike Rogers
Sure. I mean, yes. I mean we use it in document and presentations and absolutely. But nothing quite sophisticated as you can see in there. So, you know, just that chat gtp, can it clean up a document? Can it do that?
- [66:17]
Mark Halperin
Is your, is your campaign using it at all?
- [66:20]
Mike Rogers
Well, we did. We had one of the first ads, I think, that used AI in an ad about when. Where was that now? Maybe six months ago when we did a launch video. We used AI to produce help us produce the ad. It was very, very effective and what it did is helped us tell a story in a much better way. And so, yeah, we've used AI in the campaign in that way and we'll continue to use it and apply it where it absolutely makes sense and we can trust the outcome of it.
- [66:52]
Mark Halperin
Again, we're talking to Mike Rogers, former congressman from Michigan running again for the US Senate and is going to face some Democrat almost certainly in the general election. One more on AI debate in your party about the role the state should play. The Trump administration very aligned with the AI industry, very interested in keeping most of the regulation, most of the rules at the federal level. Would you like to see 10th amendment driven, big responsibility for governors and state legislators and regulating AI, or do you think it should really be done by Washington?
- [67:26]
Mike Rogers
I mean, if you believe that AI is going to be a benefit to workers from Michigan to Texas to, to, you know, to the East Coast. Pretty hard to have 50 different sets of rules on AI. It will kill innovation. I do believe they ought to have some say in this, but I would be Very reluctant to have 50 different standards, 50 different rules for the use and implementation of AI. I think what you'll end up doing is killing it. And the last thing we want to do is allow the Chinese, who said they want to beat us on AI, beating us on AI. Matter of fact, Shoigu, who was Putin's Defense secretary, still is actually a long time ago, about 10 years ago, said, whoever controls AI on the battlefield wins the next war. So you know where our adversaries are going on AI. That's why I think we have to have a standard. The states ought to be able to weigh in on that standard, but I don't think we ought to have 50 different ways to look at it.
- [68:27]
Mark Halperin
If you do win, you'd be amongst the most experienced members. Freshmen senators in national security and foreign policy. Dave McCormick, Dan Sullivan became freshman senators with a fair amount of expertise, but you've also got the benefit of having served in the House. So I think right away it's pretty clear if you win, you'd be a leading voice on national security. What are the keys to getting leverage over China? How can the United States compete with China when they've got the rare earth minerals, when they've got a command and control economy, when they're so big, when they provide so much of the products that the world buys? How can the United States have more leverage over China in this existential battle with them?
- [69:05]
Mike Rogers
Yeah, first of all, our economy means everything. We have got to continue to grow our economy. And I do believe that reshoring manufacturing back to the United States is going to be critically important. There are certain sectors of things we need in defense that we can't build. That has to end. I mean, no nation will be safe under those circumstances. So that reshoring capability going to be really, really important. On critical minerals and critical and rare earths, there are supply chains that can be developed that would allow us to shun the total reliance on China. Graphite, to me, is the greatest example where they control about 90% of it. And that's just, that's, you know, getting it out of the ground, processing it and being able to deliver it. Well, guess what? You can't improve your electric grid. You can't get to the next generation of electric vehicle. You can't build the next generation of fighters. If you need those, you need graphite for the electronics of those things. If 90% of that is reliant on China, that just doesn't work. And so there I see some really innovative things happening, and I see a Very robust effort to try to get our supply chains right where it won't be disrupted. And I think that, to me, is the right way to go. So I think you have to do all of it. And you can't have, obviously, your national debt eating up as much money on interest payments than your entire Department of Defense. So it's a combination. It's a layered impact. Start with independent supply chains. We're going to have to mine and process things here in the United States. Bring back manufacturing where it makes sense. We should be able to build any military piece of hardware we need domestically. You put those on your sites, continue to work for it, and I think we can get there for sure.
- [70:57]
Mark Halperin
Every time I hear you talk about national security or business, I worry, and no disrespect meant to 100 who are there now. I worry you're overqualified to be United States Senator. So I'm just, just a little concerned about that. Senator, when you think about this job, as you know, because you've talked to many senators, some of them go to Washington, they get, they're frustrated. They're one of a hundred. The process is kind of bogged down. You need 60 votes to do almost anything. How will you, besides the fact you've been in, in Congress, you've worked in legislative chamber, how will you approach that potential frustration that it's not an executive job and it is in a body that is not meant to be efficient?
- [71:37]
Mike Rogers
You know, if you go in and set your sights on things you want.
- [71:40]
Mark Halperin
To get done, you can do it.
- [71:41]
Mike Rogers
You know, when I was chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, I said, I'm going to cut this budget. I think they were spending way too much money. Everybody told me it can't be done. We were at the height of Iraq and the height of Afghanistan. And I teamed up with a guy, a Democrat named Dutch Rupertsberger, who was a former prosecutor, I was a former FBI guy. You know, we, we could, we could speak the same language. And we ended up cutting about $11 billion out of that time. It was about $78 billion in, in spending. And we did that through common sense, mutually agreed on things. And it. Was it easy? What?
- [72:15]
Mark Halperin
No.
- [72:15]
Mike Rogers
Did it spend. Did we spend a. Literally an entire summer going over line by line of that first budget? Absolutely. And a quick funny story, if I can, when we were doing that, getting ready to go through those cuts in the budget, at the end of it, we reached across the table. We were in a small room in the basement of the Capitol, in the skiff we know where the. Where the classified stuff happens. And we said, we got a deal. We got a budget. Literally. Dutch Rubenberger stuck his hand across the table. I stood up, shook his hand, and the whole building went like this. Do you remember the earthquake?
- [72:51]
Mark Halperin
Yeah.
- [72:52]
Mike Rogers
Honest to goodness, it happened right then. We still both tell the story. We thought, oh, my God, we've broken this place.
- [72:59]
Mark Halperin
A shaky skiff.
- [73:01]
Mike Rogers
Yeah, the shaky skiff. But I will tell you what, that's how you do it. You get together, you. You find some mutual ground here, and you get going. And my argument is, if there's some of these big issues, Mark, we don't get at, you know, housing, the institutional way we get to housing, spending, all of those things. Our national security. What's next, how we make sure that kids are prepared. All of that, to me is important. I think you can find, you can go in there and move these balls by having somebody that knows how to do this.
- [73:29]
Mark Halperin
All right, kid from Arkansas says, I'm going to Michigan. I've never been there. I want to go to the best tourist attraction in Michigan. Where would you send him?
- [73:35]
Mike Rogers
Oh, boy. First you got to go see Mackinac Island. It's the most quaint. It depends if he's a kid or a married kid. If you're married, you'll get out of trouble for at least a month with your spouse. You take them to Mackinac Island. Very close.
- [73:47]
Mark Halperin
Except you fatten up on the fudge. That's the only danger.
- [73:51]
Mike Rogers
Which are fantastic. That's all right.
- [73:54]
Mark Halperin
Rapid round. One word answer. This will demonstrate to everybody the famous Mike Rogers discipline. One word answer. Gretchen Whitmer. Leaving. John Thune.
- [74:06]
Mike Rogers
Emerging.
- [74:08]
Mark Halperin
J.D. vance.
- [74:11]
Mike Rogers
Emerging.
- [74:12]
Mark Halperin
Mitch McConnell.
- [74:16]
Mike Rogers
Great public servant. I know that was three words, but.
- [74:18]
Mark Halperin
All right. Great public servant. Okay, Stephen Miller.
- [74:27]
Mike Rogers
Next question.
- [74:29]
Mark Halperin
Why do you say that?
- [74:31]
Mike Rogers
I don't know. I didn't have. One word is pretty hard.
- [74:34]
Mark Halperin
It's hard for me. All right. Elizabeth Warren.
- [74:36]
Mike Rogers
Very disciplined. Discipline.
- [74:37]
Mark Halperin
There you go, Elizabeth. Elizabeth Warren.
- [74:41]
Mike Rogers
Out there.
- [74:43]
Mark Halperin
Out there. Okay. Who's the Democratic nominee going to be for the Senate seat you're running for?
- [74:49]
Mike Rogers
I don't know. The good news is we're beating all three of them in head to head polling.
- [74:54]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Who would you like to. Who would you like to run against?
- [74:57]
Mike Rogers
Honestly? Any of the three. They are so out of touch with working class families here in Michigan. You know, I'm the only guy in the race, Mark, that actually worked in a car factory. Grew up here, born raised here. I just think that their politics are very. Coastal California. New Yorkish and Michigan is looking for somebody that's going to worry about how I put food on my table and how I get a better paying job. And I just don't think they're there.
- [75:23]
Mark Halperin
Are the fundamentals of the American economy strong?
- [75:26]
Mike Rogers
Yes.
- [75:28]
Mark Halperin
What are the strengths of our economy currently coming back?
- [75:31]
Mike Rogers
Certainly consumer and purchasing still going up. Savings is still on the way up. Even though most families don't have the ability to get over a $400 emergency payment, we can see, we can track that. Savings are getting better. That's good. And higher paying wages. Wages are going up. That's going to be key. You want to, you know, if you want to make sure that people can afford groceries at the month, you've got to make sure they're paid better. And what we're seeing is wage growth. And when you get illegals who are taking some of these jobs and driving wages down. When, when that, you see those areas where they're, they're leaving some, some by, some by the ICE and some by self deportation, those wages in those areas are coming up. So I think there's a real opportunity here to get better wages, put pressure on prices. That's why I think the economy is going to do well. And we're here in Michigan. $4 billion investment by general Motors in reshoring. I talked to a guy that runs a small little tool and dye shop, second shift for the first time in 25 years. So that reshoring is starting to happen here and so that part of the economy will go. And I believe we have 3 million Michigan citizens that get overtime every year. When they see the benefit of that in April, you're going to see a consumer confidence. That's really going to flip around here.
- [76:51]
Mark Halperin
Senator, when you get the general election and you're starting to fight with the Democratic nominee about who should moderate the debates because you're not somebody. Fair. Keep me in mind.
- [77:00]
Mike Rogers
You are definitely fair.
- [77:01]
Mark Halperin
I can tell you I love, I love your state and, and I look forward to watching you in the general election. It's going to be spirited no matter who the Democrats nominate. As you said, it's been a long time since the Republicans won a Senate seat there. You came close last time. I'm fascinated to see how this one shapes up. Very grateful to you, Congressman, and look forward to staying in touch with you and your team as we head towards the general. And I say again, happy New Year to you and thanks for, for being here.
- [77:24]
Mike Rogers
Hey, Happy New Year to you. Thanks for being here. And I only gave one example of why you want to come to Michigan. There's Sleeping Bear Dunes in Traverse City and Holland, Michigan. And Detroit is on the rise.
- [77:35]
Mark Halperin
Come on. And. And all the. And all the cherries you could possibly ever want.
- [77:39]
Mike Rogers
Exactly.
- [77:40]
Mark Halperin
Thank you. Very grateful to you, Congressman.
- [77:42]
Mike Rogers
Thanks, Mark.
- [77:43]
Mark Halperin
That does it for today. My thanks to Mike Rogers running for Senate in Michigan and also Patty Solis. All Karen Skelton for talking about round two of our eight for 28. We're back on Thursday. Brand new episode. We look forward to talking to you then. As always, we'd like you to help us out grow the audience of nexters. Go on YouTube if you watch the show there and make sure you subscribe or if you listen to us as a podcast and tell all your friends about Nextup because we got to get bigger. We're a little puppy, so I want to get bigger. Thanks for watching. Don't miss an episode so you always know what's going to happen next up.
- [78:23]
Karen Skelton
Choose to lean into it.
- [78:26]
Mark Halperin
Every Mazda is engineered to give you effortless control. Awake up.