Podcast Summary: Next Up with Mark Halperin

Episode: Why Pritzker Is Rising and Buttigieg Is Slipping in the "8 for '28" Dem Nomination Rankings

Date: January 13, 2026
Guests: Patty Solis Doyle (Democratic strategist), Karen Skelton (Stanford visiting scholar, longtime Democratic strategist)
Host: Mark Halperin

Overview

This episode focuses on Mark Halperin’s “8 for 28” January 2026 rankings—the eight Democrats most likely to become their party’s nominee for president in 2028. Halperin debuts the updated list, details the reasoning, and gets reactions from top Democratic strategists Patty Solis Doyle and Karen Skelton. Special emphasis is given to the rise of Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and decline of Pete Buttigieg, set against the broader field’s strengths and weaknesses. The episode concludes with an interview with Mike Rogers, Republican Senate candidate from Michigan, but the following summary is limited to the Democratic nomination segment.

Key Segments & Timestamps

• [00:47] - [10:00]: Halperin introduces the “8 for 28” concept, explains methodology, and reviews December rankings.
• [10:01] - [28:16]: January’s new rankings revealed and explained, discussing why candidates rose or fell and the main questions facing each contender.
• [28:16] - [53:59]: Reactions from Patty Solis Doyle and Karen Skelton—a strategic, no-nonsense panel dissecting the rankings, candidate strengths and weaknesses, and overall party bench for 2028.

Highlights & Detailed Discussion

1. The "8 for 28" Rankings: Method & Context

Halperin’s Approach

• Halperin surveys 21 experienced Democrats (+2 Republicans) about whom they’d move up or down, combining reporting and these insights for the list.
• Focus is strictly on the Democratic nomination—general election electability isn’t the criterion.
• Excludes “no-shot” candidates (e.g., Michelle Obama) despite their theoretical strength if they’re unlikely to run.
• The current field is generally considered underwhelming:

  “I don’t think this is the most stellar group of all time ever to run for president...I know it’s disappointing to many Democrats.”
  (Halperin, 07:55)

2. January 2026 "8 for 28" List:

CURRENT RANKINGS:

1. Gavin Newsom
2. Josh Shapiro
3. Kamala Harris (up from 4)
4. J.B. Pritzker (up from 7)
5. Pete Buttigieg (down from 3)
6. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (up from 8)
7. Ro Khanna (new)
8. Rahm Emanuel (new)

Dropped: Andy Beshear, Wes Moore

Key Movement

• Pritzker jumps three spots on perceived likelihood to run, near-unlimited money, and closer ties in the party.
• Harris rises due to increased conviction she will run and leverage with core Democratic constituencies.
• Buttigieg slips more from others rising than his own missteps but faces continued doubts about his political moment.
• AOC and Khanna: Progressive lane energy, though doubts about whether AOC will run, and Khanna’s current buzz.
• Rahm Emanuel as the moderate/Clintonian lane, newly visible.

3. Deep Dive: Why Each Contender Is Where They Are

(Timestamp guide corresponds to initial discussion: [10:00]–[28:16])

Newsom & Shapiro—the “aircraft carriers”

“They’re just...thoroughbreds or great political athletes...They’re head and shoulders right now above everybody else.”
(Halperin, 12:59)

Kamala Harris—fragile but likely to run

• Brings immense fundraising list, deep party connections, but “fragile candidacy.”

J.B. Pritzker—Billionaire’s advantage

“Pritzker is almost certainly going to run. He’s got the money to run and he’s got good relationships within the party.”
(Halperin, 16:02)

Pete Buttigieg—Fundraising potential, polling okay, but persistent doubts

“A lot of them don’t even think he belongs on the list...they just don’t think his time is now.”
(Halperin, 17:30)

AOC—Undeniable progressive star with potential energy, but uncertain to run.

Ro Khanna—Rising force

• Not a typical contender (House members rarely breakthrough), but “very adept at being in the conversation” especially in media/social media, grabbing the Sanders/progressive lane if AOC doesn’t run.

Rahm Emanuel—Establishment “Bill Clinton lane”

• “Running like Bill Clinton did in ‘92...very much focused on education to reach parents.”

Off-list: Mark Kelly

“He’s got a lot of appeal...but right now I don’t think he’s going to run.”
(Halperin, 21:50)

4. For Each: The Big Question

([21:52]–[28:16])

• Newsom: Can he handle front-runner scrutiny? Opposition research, personal life, and California policies all in play.
• Shapiro: Can he balance re-election in 2026 and national ambitions?
• Harris: Can she consolidate her strengths—especially with women and Black voters?
• Pritzker: How does he introduce himself to a national audience? Personal brand/story mostly unknown.
• Buttigieg: Can he raise enough money to break into the top tier?
• AOC: Will she run, or pursue another office?
• Khanna: Can he convert current media buzz into lasting power?
• Emanuel: Is he a real candidate or just an idea? Will the public respond as well as party elites?

5. Panel Reactions

([28:16] onward — Main debate is between [30:44] and [53:59])

On Newsom and Shapiro:

• Karen Skelton: Newsom justifies #1—a strong record in California, visible on the national stage. Shapiro less clear, perhaps should be replaced by Mark Kelly—though doubts if Kelly will run.
• Patty Solis Doyle: Shapiro deserves #2. “Republicans are afraid of him being on the ticket...Pennsylvania is a critical state.”

On Kamala Harris:

• Both Skelton and Doyle see Harris’s time as past.

  “I have been a supporter of hers for many, many years, but I don’t see it... her time is gone.” (Skelton, 34:33)
  “Voters are kind of been there, done that. We need to move on. And particularly Democrats...They want to see a large primary.”
  (Doyle, 36:17)

On Pritzker:

• Doyle: Pritzker can self-fund, is a “fighter”, and “taking it to Trump in a real way”, but faces Illinois baggage.
• Skelton: Needs “good ideas on the economy” to really break out; self-funding loses some grassroots energy.

On Buttigieg:

• Skelton: “He’s universally liked,” strong one-on-one, “in it for the long run.”
• Doyle: “I just don’t think that you can be a top tier candidate and not have support from the African American community. And he’s had a lot of time to work on that and it hasn’t moved.”

On AOC:

• Both agree: If she runs, she is instantly a top-tier contender, especially because the party’s progressive wing is so energized.

On Ro Khanna:

• Both doubt his surge will last once the big names/establishment move, but recognize his effective use of media in the meantime.

On Rahm Emanuel:

• Both agree: He belongs on the list as a disciplined, media-savvy force who shapes the debate if not a top-tier nominee.

Who’s Missing?

• Both Skelton and Doyle say Mark Kelly—but only if he actually makes moves to run.

On the Bench’s Overall Quality:

• Doyle: The primary will sharpen the field and surface several strong contenders.
• Skelton: Not depressed by the list—reminds listeners that new generations always start as “unknowns” and that openings yield new stars.

General Election Electability:

Q: “If you could pick one of the eight with the goal of winning the general...who’s strongest?”
Skelton: Gavin Newsom. (53:53)
Doyle: Josh Shapiro. (53:58)

Notable Quotes

• “Pritzker is almost certainly going to run. He’s got the money to run and he’s got good relationships within the party.” (Halperin, 16:02)
• “Republicans are afraid of him [Shapiro] being on the ticket.” (Doyle, 33:05)
• “I have been a supporter of hers [Harris]...but I don’t see it. Her time is gone.” (Skelton, 34:33)
• “I just don’t think that you can be a top tier candidate and not have support from the African American community.” (Doyle, 41:54)
• “Rahm’s time has come now. He’s got experience in Congress...He knows how to speak about [foreign policy]...Who would have ever thought it would be a time for Rahm Emanuel? But I do think this is the time.” (Skelton, 50:20)

Memorable Moments

• Panel agrees Harris’s time has probably passed, despite her intent to run. Both see Buttigieg as increasingly marginal, mainly due to lack of Black voter support.
• Both strategists agree AOC would “skyrocket” if she entered, showing the ongoing relevance of the party’s left flank.
• Ongoing debate about party disappointment with the 2028 bench: Skelton counters the conventional wisdom, reminding listeners that major party realignments usually start with an “unimpressive” field before new stars emerge.

Conclusion

Halperin’s “8 for 28” offers the sharpest available snapshot of Democratic nomination sentiment for 2028: Newsom and Shapiro are the clear top tier, with Pritzker’s billionaire resources vaulting him up while doubts persist about Harris and Buttigieg. The panel segment is candid, sometimes skeptical, ultimately optimistic about a primary’s power to reveal—and toughen—future nominees. If AOC jumps in, she would immediately disrupt the race; if Mark Kelly moves toward a run, the list could shift dramatically.

Useful Timestamps

• [10:00] The new rankings revealed
• [16:00] Pritzker’s rise explained
• [21:50] Mark Kelly’s off-list rationale
• [30:44] Panel discussion—Newsom, Shapiro’s strengths
• [34:33] Harris skepticism from both strategists
• [41:54] Why Buttigieg struggles with core party constituencies
• [45:23] Potential of AOC’s candidacy
• [50:20] The surprising rationale for Rahm Emanuel

For listeners and Democrats seeking a preview of the battles ahead, this episode offers insight, strategy, and sharp debate about the strengths and limitations defining the pre-race for the party’s most coveted nomination.