← Next Up with Mark Halperin
Next Up with Mark Halperin
Why Rahm is on the Rise in April's "8 for ’28" Rankings, Plus Iranian Journalist Reveals Trump Strategy Next Steps
01:11:18
Who will the Democrats nominate for president next? Mark’s “8 for ’28” is back with his April rankings. In his reported monologue, he breaks down the current state of the evolving 2028 Democratic field. He highlights what he sees as the biggest weakness facing many of the contenders: a lack of clear messaging and modern media strategy, and explains why campaigns must now operate like full-time content machines. Mark also dives into why Rahm Emanuel is gaining traction, pointing to his aggressive media presence and clearer policy vision as key factors that set him apart in a crowded field. Mark is then joined by Karen Skelton and Yemisi Egbewole, for their takes on the April rankings, including if Kamala Harris remains near the top, and why JB Pritzker has slipped. They also debate Pete Buttigieg’s status as a potential wild card and whether he can break through despite skepticism within some portions of the party. Finally, Mark speaks with Iranian journalist Omid Memarian, who warn...
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Mark Halperin
Hey everybody, Mark Halpert here. Glad to be back with you all you Nexters and new Nexters. Grateful for you reconvening here. I'm Mark Calpern, editor in chief of Live Video platform two Way. Big show for you today. We're in the midst of a war and we're going to talk about Iran and what a lot of people missed there. But we're going to start off with the April installment of my patented 8 for 28 rankings of which Democrats are most likely to become their party's nominee in the next presidential Done some updates here, move some people around. There may be some controversy about some of the things there, but I've done my usual reporting with sources, mostly Democrats, but some Republicans, to figure out who's gaining some momentum over the last month, who may be slipping and the state of affairs for the Democratic Party. After we do that, we're going to bring in two brilliant people to tell me what I got right and what I got wrong. Karen Skelton and Yemesi Bawali will be here to talk about their view of who I ranked high, who I ranked low, and who might be off the list, who should be on there. Looking forward to hearing their feedback there. And then we're going to talk about Iran with someone with an extraordinary story, a journalist who was a political prisoner in Iran and tortured and treated horribly, and now has a very interesting and very complex view, not just of his home country, but about President Trump and some of the rhetoric he's used in the last few days. Omid Memory, Omid Memorian will be here and looking forward to sharing his perspective with you on what is a serious and fast moving story. He's now the director of communications and senior Iran analyst at Democracy for the Arab World. Now the group is called Don and again, I think you'll enjoy meeting him and spending time with him. Important conversation related to the fast moving Iran conflict. But first we're going to go to the big board. My April edition of 8 for 28 is next up. Let me ask you a question. Do you own physical gold? Most people do not. And given the current state of the world, this is something worth thinking about. Acre Gold makes it simple. You pick a plan that fits your budget, make monthly payments, and when you've accumulated enough, they ship you a beautifully designed 24 karat Swiss gold bar. Gold is now up 70% year over year and central banks are still buying it at record levels. Smart money has been moving into hard assets like gold for a good reason. Acre Gold has had subscribers stacking consistently for six years because once you hold it in your hand, you understand the difference between owning something real versus a number on a screen. Right now they're giving away 18 karat grams of gold in their Acre declassified sweepstakes. You can enter for free and subscribe to Gold@getacregold.com Mark again, that's getacregold.com/mark. All right, everybody, let's get to it. This is my April edition of 8 for 28, the Democrats most likely to be the party's nominee in 2028. Got to remind you, always the usual caveats. It is early, although it's not as early as it was even last month. We'll talk about that. This is just a chance of being the nominee. You don't need to send me a lot of messages saying none of these people could win a general election or these are all horrible people. I hate them. Those really aren't the issues. The issue is who's going to be the Democratic nominee. And I factor in pretty heavily whether people are going to run or not. A lot of people on this list are on there because I have a higher degree of confidence that they'll run than not. You can't be the nominee if you don't run. So Michelle Obama will never make the list because she'll never run. Okay, so those are the caveats. Now one big caveat is about is about or not caveat. But one big thing is how do you get to be the nominee? And a lot of what I base my my reporting on and talking to my sources and my own analysis is I look at history, I look at who's become the nominee in the past. Now the party has changed, technology's changed, the party's become more liberal, it's more liberal than it's ever been. But there still are some fundamentals, and one big fundamental is who can do well in the early states. We still don't know which states are going to vote first. So that's a big variable that will come into play later in the process. We can make guesses now, but we've got to see how candidates start to do when they do travel to the early states. Okay, with those caveats, there's two big developments that I want to talk about that are really coming into sharp focus as metrics of possible success. And both of them are prisms through which to look at the current field, you know, potential field. And so in a lot of my reporting, I focused on these two issues. The first one comes from David Plouffe, and we'll get to the list in a second. I'm building up a little suspense here, but I want to lay the predicate of how the reporting for this, this episode was done. David Plouff was one of the smartest operatives in either party. He ran Barack Obama's campaign in 2008, got great experience, and has done a lot of work in the private sector over the last few years. He's really largely out of politics and more doing corporate work. And that gives him access to a broader perspective. And in the last few presidential cycles, maybe going back, maybe for even a quarter century, really now, the smartest people in politics look a lot at what happens in the corporate world, what happens in technology, what happens in communication technology that is done routinely in the private sector, but maybe not done at all in politics. So David Plouffe had an interesting op ed piece in the New York Times, and he says that there's been a big change that affects everybody in thinking about running and how they should think about it. And what he says is that the old way of. The old way of campaigning won't cut it anymore. Okay, what does he say the old way is and what's the new way that he's saying candidates have to do? Reading now from David Plouff's op ed piece. Many candidates daily campaign schedules today look very much as they have for most of my career. Speeches to community groups, interviews with journalists, fundraising events, and meetings with local party activists with lots of driving in between. That won't cut it anymore. A successful campaign in 2026 must operate like a full Time production studio. Okay, David Plouffe goes on and writes this. Candidates and incumbents should center each day on content creation. That does not mean uploading the same video to every platform. It means creating output tailored specifically for TikTok or Instagram or YouTube. It means several hours a day filming in campaign offices, even candidates homes offering a message that buttresses the argument that they are trying to land. It will still be a punishing schedule, just with less driving on roads and more driving of messages. Candidates still need to do the traditional stuff to stay in touch with voters concerns. But to the extent that their schedules include speeches, events and interviews, they should be there only because they fit into the content calendar. This is an extremely important change and it's been going on for a while. And it's a challenge for candidates who aren't good at media. Right. But what David Plouff is arguing is that it is inefficient to try to communicate on a retail level and that the way to communicate is by making great content. That's true in my business too. And what he says about being great on different platforms with different content, that's true in my business too. You've got to have, even if you're dealing with a candidate who's not that great, a communicator. Maybe you buttress them with supporters or surrogates, but the point is you got to be creating content and you got to be creating content that's compelling and that can reach a lot of people because that's where voters are, particularly younger voters. But not just younger voters. That's a massive change. And so when you're thinking about who's likely to be the Democratic nominee, you've got to think about who can make great content. Now, some people are hit and miss. I think about aoc. Sometimes her content is great, sometimes less so, I would say. But she's got game, she's watchable. She's got a team around her that can build stuff. But that's an important thing. Now, what David also argues though, is you still have to have a message, right? You still have to have a message. And that brings me to the second development of the week I want to talk to you about. This is a guy who, not as well known as David Plouffe, but very smart Democratic strategist who has been spending time listening to all the podcasts of all the prospective Democratic candidates. And there's a lot of them. His name is Jesse Lyric and he's starting his own podcast. But he's done. He's got A media tracker. That's pretty cool. You take a look at here, S5. He basically just listens to them. I think he listens to them while he walks on double speed or one and a half speed. I forget what he said, but he listens to him fast. And here you can see scrolling by if you're watching the program, not listening to it. Candidate name, the date, the name of the podcast, and he's got links to them all. So you can join him in his quest to listen and watch all these things. But some of them have their own podcasts, some of them go on other people's podcasts. And that's fitting with David. David Plouff says, right, you can make your own content. You can also go on other people's shows. But the point is, he says you got to do high volume. But he makes another point. It's kind of the mirror image of David Plouffe in terms of what his concern is. After listening to hours and hours of these Democrats, and this is an issue I've raised for you before, when I talk about this as a weak Democratic field, a lot of what I'm saying goes to the point that Jesse Lyric makes. Here's what he says at the end of an interview. He did an interview in Politico. A12, please. Adam Wren. I've told you before, Adam Wren is one of the best political reporters in America today, writes for Politico and he occasionally writes the Playbook. And on Saturday, Adam Wren wrote about this guy. He says, One man, one thousand hours of 20, 28ers, thousand hours listening and counting to these podcasts. Here's what Adam, here's what what Jesse said to Adam at the end of the write up of this interview. This is, let's see, what number is this? A 15, please. Here's what, here's what Jesse Lyric said after listening. He says, in his own continuing quest to divine the direction of the Democratic Party, through his intense listening habits, Lyric has also realized what he sees as the field's glaring weaknesses. Glaring weakness. This is the money line, folks. They don't all have a post Trump vision for the future or a sense of their own part in it quite yet. Maybe the answer is like, we got to get past the midterms and it's too early. But there are a lot of Democrats that to me, still feel like they're trying to calibrate what the electorate wants rather than having a clear sense of what they believe and where they think we should go. I'll read it again, folks, because that's so key. They're trying to calibrate what the electorate wants rather than having a clear sense of what they believe and where they think we should go. And I've told this story many times. I once was meeting with a leading presidential candidate pretty early in the process, around the same time as we are in this cycle, and he said, what do you think I should run on? What do you think my platform should be? And I said, well, number one, I'm not in the business of advising candidates. But number two, in my experience, the people who run and become nominated and run and win typically run for a reason. They don't run because they're ambitious and they want to try to figure out the mood of the country. They run because they run on what they believe in. And I, I'm. I. I don't need to listen to quite as much as Jesse Lyric has to know that that is the fundamental weakness of this field. Now, in part, that's because the party is so opposed to Donald Trump now that you spend a lot of bandwidth just finding different ways to say, I'm against Trump. Okay, but this is. This is a challenge because you can't make this up. This can't be synthetic. Somebody says, well, I heard Mark Halperin talking about Jesse Lyric, or I heard Jesse Lyric talking about. I read his interview with Politico. Yeah, I should figure out what I want to run on Too late. Like, this has got to be organic. This has got to be why you do it right now. You'll see in a moment when I. When I run through the April ratings, the people who are doing well, the people who are moving up, the people who my sources are higher on, not in all cases, but at least some are the ones who are paying attention to both of what David Plouff and Jesse Lyric are talking about. Right. Pluff emphasizes, you got to make a lot of content and not do the traditional stuff. But he says, you got to have a message. Lyric Talk is focused on how they're communicating in media, but his big thing is you got to start with the message they're both right. You need them both. So when we talk about Rahm Emanuel, when we talk about Kamala Harris, okay, we're talking about two people who seem to get both sides of that equation and are aggressively going for it now, maybe given this stage, that they're doing well because they don't have jobs. The third person who's doing well that I moved up, Pete Buttigieg, also doesn't have a job right it helps right now not to have a job. It helps to be free to do this full time. I talked about how some people won't run and in the end, and that's why I don't rank them high. And what we've seen in the last month are indications of the two reasons why people don't run in the end most commonly. But I call the two F's family and fundraising. You don't run because you got young kids. You don't run because there's stuff in your closet that would be skeletal that you just don't want to risk having come out. Or you don't run because you sit down with the people who need to raise the money for you and they say this is a gargantuan task. Now you don't know how much the person who raises the most will raise. But you know what table stakes is, right? There are three ways to raise money. You can raise money into your campaign and that involves having a lot of so called bundlers who can have parties for you where people write maxed out checks of about three grand a piece. You can raise money online, some candidates can do it, some can't. Or you can have a super PAC where people can write unlimited checks to you. And you also need a big network. People are going to start doing the math pretty soon and a lot of people who don't run will run through some combination tom of family and fundraising, the two Fs. Okay, now lastly, before I unveil for you the April ratings, I want to show you four guys who are just below the line. And when you've got a field this week, for some people there's no difference between slots 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and really no difference between the people just below the line. I go through all my reporting again, talk to more than three dozen people as well as my own analysis and looking at history and did my best to put the right people on the list. But plenty of my sources would say that these four guys belong on the list instead of someone who I put on the list. Here's the 4. Ro Khanna, Democratic Congressman who's been on the list, Andy Beshear, Kentucky Governor Ruben Gallego, Arizona Senator, and Westmore, Maryland Governor. Why haven't I put them on the list? Well, Ro Khanna I think will run probably and he made if AOC doesn't run, he could fill that progressive lane which is underrepresented in this field so far. Hard for a House member to run and win number one and and other issues we've talked about here. Andy Beshear. I just don't see how he's going to raise the money. I just don't see how he's going to be dynamic enough in content creation. If you go listen to his podcast, as I have done, I think you'll see what I mean. Ruben Gallego, interesting. He, like his fellow Arizona senator Mark Kelly, is now openly talking about running. Here's an NBC news headline. Number A4, please. He's got a very attractive bio. A military veteran, young Hispanic. Here's the headline. Ruben Gallego considers a 2028 presidential run. We have to look at it. Interesting. I need to see more, though, about whether he can actually build this. I need to see more whether he's willing to put his young family through the rigors of a presidential campaign. And then Wes Moore, he said he won't run. He's done things that make it seem like he might run. I still don't think he's going to run. And I still think he hasn't addressed the biographical issues that might keep him out of the race or make it difficult for him to run and win. All right, lastly, before we unveil the list, here's the list of last month, the March 8 for 28. And it's an interesting list. Here it is. Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, 1 and 2. They've been 1 and 2 from the spar start. J.B. pritzker, Illinois governor, number three. So three governors at the top. Then Kamala Harris, AOC Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Pete Buttigieg, Rahm Emanuel and Mark Kelly. That was the March list. And so I went to my sources and I said, all right, I'm scrambling some stuff around. What do you think? Here are the changes. Here's what. Here's where we are now. This is the April list. And interesting. Top two are still the same. Not all my sources feel that way, but that was the consensus. Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro, 1 and 2. This is going to be controversial for many. Pete Buttigieg, I got a lot of sources who say don't put them on the list. But I believe as I have, and I wanted to make him higher last month and I didn't, I resisted, I moved, I flipped. I flipped them up to number three from number four. I just believe a guy who's won a primary or a caucus, who's done very well, who's got the experience of running for president, who's smart. There are no perfect candidates. People are going to tell me party won't nominate a gay man. You're going to tell me they think he's boring, whatever you want to say about him. But, but I, I feel quite strongly that he right now is number three. And, and, and I might move him higher. Might move him higher. We'll talk about that. And he's moved up in the polling. Kamala Harris, again, I've got two really great sources, very experienced, very smart people. They say she should be number one. And by the traditional metrics of what it, what someone should be ranked by, she should be number one. She, she's got name id. She can raise money. At least online. She is. I wonder, though, about a super PAC for her and who would give to that strength with the Democratic Party constituents, right? Black women, massively important. South Carolina will certainly be important on the calendar. And if you look at her recent schedule and her upcoming schedule, she's following what David Plouffe said. She's producing a lot of content. She's going on a lot of new media shows. She's not spending a lot of time courting elites, including in the media. But what she is doing is talking to voters. She's still talking to voters and she's used her book tour phases of her book tour to reach out. I have one source who said to me, and I've really been thinking about this as I put the rankings together, he said the establishment, the people inside the Beltway, they don't like her, they don't get her, but they're missing her strength. And he said she should be number one. And he said it without ambiguity. And some of my other sources did too. But I say also I've got sources who say she shouldn't be on the list. Some of you have pretty price drawing strong feelings about it. I'm equally eager to hear what you think. Number five, Rahm Emanuel also moved up. Too controversial. Maybe because Rahm Emanuel is a favorite of the establishment. He's doing all the things David Plouffe said you shouldn't do. He's courting the media. He's spending a lot of time thinking about how to raise money. I can't tell you how often I'll talk to a Democratic elite, a member of Congress, a big donor, an activist, and we'll be talking about E for 28 or something else. And they'll say, oh, yeah, I just Rob called me the other day. He's working it and he's coming up with policy ideas. He's the only one with specific policies. And he's the closest, I think, right now to Jesse Lyric's idea of why are you running? Is it about power and aggrandizement, self aggrandizement, or is it about changing the country? So Rahm Emanuel, some people don't think he has a chance. Other people think he should be higher than 5. I'm comfortable with mid 5 AOC. I moved her up one spot as well. I still am skeptical about her running. I still think at this phase in her life, it's going to be a more complicated endeavor than she wants. I think Senator Schumer will be forced into retirement. She'll become a senator and she's got plenty of time to run. But because she's so great on social media, because she can raise a lot of money online, and because literally there's no one else on this list right now who fills the Bernie Sanders lane, I put her at number six. Mark Kelly. My sources are very high on him. I'm still skeptical that he'll run in the end. I still don't see what his message is. I still don't see why he'd run for president. He can talk about all the normal things that people talk about. He says he's an engineer and he wants to bring the country back. But I still don't associate him with any ideas that are uniquely his or that he talks about in a compelling way. My sources have me put him in number seven, but. But I'm skeptical. And then lastly, JB Pritzker. I loot. I moved him down five. And frankly, I'd move him off the list. But a lot of my sources think he should be number two or number three, which is where I've had him. I, I invested a lot of time over the last month watching him on tv, listening to him on podcasts, studying his record in Illinois. And ladies and gentlemen, I know he's a billionaire. I know that, that he's got a lot going for him in terms of he wants to run, he's got good people around him, he's ambitious and he's got the money. But I just don't see it. I just don't see what his message is. And the thing I keep coming back to is when I listen to most of his appearances, they're all softballs. He doesn't face any truly hard questions. And I do think it's going to be difficult for him to run and win under these circumstances. Okay, that's the eight. Now I want to talk a little bit about Rahm Emanuel. I already talked about Kamala Harris and why I think she's she's doing well and why? My sources who think she should be high are right. She's got a really great schedule. She's going to a lot of red parts of the country. She's building up enthusiasm and she's appealing to the people who already like her. Now can she win over people who soured on her? That remains to be seen. The interesting one is Rahm Emanuel. He's everywhere. He writes a column in the Wall Street Journal, writes a column in the Washington Post, CNN commentator on lots of podcasts and traveling to states like Michigan and doing a lot of stuff to put out a policy agenda. He's already got a policy on age limit of who can run for public office, a policy on kids getting access to social media, lots of different policies, more specific than anybody else. And here he is recently talking about on the Frogmore Stew podcast, talking about whether and why he might run in 2028. This is S2, please.
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Rahm Emanuel
So my view, I'm going to tell you what I think you need to know, not what you want to hear. You don't like it, don't vote for me. If you want somebody that knows how to doesn't only knows how to fight Trump but doesn't know how to fight for America, doesn't have a single idea about tomorrow and the future. I am tired of two presidents that have tried to recreate a past that's not coming back. Let's talk about a future. Tough times have to require a tough leader that gets tough things done.
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Mark Halperin
Okay, again, everybody I know in politics knows Rahm. Everybody I know in politics thinks Rahm is going to be an active participant on the debate stage, that he's going to have a chance to be the candidate who argues that the party needs to move to the center. Everybody thinks he's going to make people, a lot of people are going to steal his ideas. Everybody thinks he can raise a lot of money because that's how he started out in politics. So Rahm Emanuel and Kamala Harris on paper right now are doing a lot of the things that David Plouff talked about are in the case of Rahm Emanuel, talking about what he believes in, why he wants to be president, animating the why with specific policies. It's early for the others. They still have time. But I'll say again, when are they going to come up with policy ideas that are animating them? Because they're already putting themselves out there. Every one of the people on the list is putting themselves out there to one degree or another. Saying, maybe I'll run for president. And yet they don't have what Rahm Emanuel already has put together, which was, here are the policies, here are the ideas that families can look at and say, yeah, that's something I want last. I want to talk about the front runner, Gavin Newsom. He's still the front runner. I've said before, I've talked to him about it on this program. He may not run. And a big complexity is his wife. His wife is drawing a lot of attention for some social media posts that she's done, some appearances she's done. Here she is in a recent appearance with Governor Newsom talking about Trump accounts. This is S3, please.
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Rahm Emanuel
So California is launching an unexpected partnership, and we want to bring you in on it.
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California Governor's Wife
We'd love for you to consider investing in the future with State's Cal Kids account and Trump's Invest America account.
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Rahm Emanuel
I know, I know it might be a little bit out of character, but when it comes to our kids, we're all on the same page. Both of these accounts could be invaluable to your child's future.
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California Governor's Wife
So parents claim both of your kids free accounts and jumpstart their savings.
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Mark Halperin
Okay, I don't think anybody could, could have any problem with that. But then she made a video on her own talking about Donald Trump and talking about his firing of two female members of his Cabinet that has produced a more negative reaction.
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California Governor's Wife
Trust me, I'm not a fan of Pam Bondi nor Kristi Noem, but I need to call out that it's no surprise to me that the first two prominent people pushed out of this administration were women. Let me explain. The conservative women that Trump handed picks who align themselves with an agenda that controls women, restricting our rights, limiting our autonomy, and pushing us back into this straight jacket of femininity that is only in service of men. There's a familiar pattern here. Women are brought in packaged Mar a Lago style, and lifted up as long as they commit to wholeheartedly serve the interests of the patriarch at the top. No woman is safe in Trump's Republican Party unless she has enough wealth or the ability to buy her own job security and safety. And so, my friends, regardless of your political affiliation, you might want to wake up and see this for what it truly is. It's a war on all women.
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Mark Halperin
People can have subjective views, maybe that that that video doesn't rub you the wrong way, or maybe Democrats will like it or love it or not mind it. But here's what it produced. It produced a comm in the New York Post, the California Post, by Miranda Devine, the conservative columnist. A 14, please. And the reason I'm highlighting this is not that Miranda, who I have great respect for when she speaks for everybody or headline Gavin's first partner is a nu sense as a nuisance and newsome. It's because I can already tell just this is my spidey sense, my experience that she's going to be a hot button issue the way Hillary Clinton was to some extent in 1992, that that is going to produce controversy. Now Gavin Newsom produces controversy himself. He can, he can say my family's just going to ignore the controversy. But she clearly is going to be out there. She's clearly going to be part of the conversation if he runs. And I continue to believe that even, even this year before he makes a formal announcement. To the extent she's front and center, as she's been on occasion and particularly in the last couple weeks, the family is going to get a sense of what it's going to be like. Now maybe they'll decide, you know, for the sake of America, the family's going to going to do this together. But as you go through and you have these debates with your friends and family and your, and your colleagues about who the Democrats might pick, you have to think about the two Fs and the family one, I think is going to be super important for a lot of these folks, particularly the ones with young kids, particularly the ones who, whether they've been through scrutiny as, as, as Gavin Newsom's family has or not. It's, it's something you can't, you can't ignore. You gotta really be tough. You gotta really want to do it. And that comes back again to what's animating you to run. All right, there you have it. That's the April board. It's now set. I want to hear what you think about it. Who's too high, who's too low, who's not on the list, who should be there. Send me your thoughts@nextup halpernmail.com while you're there on the site, please make sure to subscribe to NextUp on your YouTube channel. Tom it's the only way to see every episode in full. Get the exclusive bonus content we post only on YouTube. Go to YouTube.com nextup halpern2. Subscribe there. And if you're listening on the go on a podcast of the program, please subscribe there. Make sure you have downloads turned on. That way the episodes come in first and right away as soon as they get posted. Grateful to you for your support for NextUp and hope you'll continue to share the show with others who you know you think might be interested in becoming certified Nexters. All right, quick break now. When we come back, Yemen and former chief of staff and advisor at the Biden White House, Democratic strategist at Podium Strategies and Karen Skelton, visiting scholar at Stanford at the Doors School of Sustainability and a longtime Democratic operative on presidential campaigns, will join me to further break down the list. And then after we talk to them, when we come back, we'll talk about Iran with someone with an extraordinary perspective. All of that right here. Next up, are you being lied to? They tell you to defer paying your taxes by saving in a 401k or an IRA because you'll retire in a lower tax bracket. But if that were true, why are so many retirees in the highest tax brackets of their whole lives? It's time to get the truth now and discover a better way to grow and protect your money. Bank on yourself is the proven retirement plan alternative that banks and Wall street desperately hope that you never hear about. It gives you guaranteed predictable growth that doesn't go backward when the market drops. It can provide tax free retirement income under current tax law, putting you in control of your future tax rate. You also have control of your money. You can access it when you need it with no government penalties or restrictions. And your money keeps growing even when you use it. Right now you can get a free report that reveals how you can bank on yourself and enjoy tax free retirement income, guaranteed growth and control of your own money. Right now, just go to bankonyourself.com, and you'll get a free report. That's bankonyourself.com, mark. Get your free report at bankonyourself.com, mark.
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- [31:50]
Mark Halperin
All right, next up and joining me now, a panel of two very smart people who are going to give me their honest opinion about my 8 for the 28 APR ratings. They both understand the rhythms of the Democratic Party really well. And we'll break it down. Yemisei Bowale is here, former chief of staff advisor in the Biden White House in the press office and a Democratic strategist at Podium Strategies. And then Professor Karen Skelton, visiting scholar at Stanford's Door School of Sustainability and someone who's worked on her share of presidential campaigns. Ladies, thank you for being here. Let's just look at April. We'll skip March. Let's just look at April. Number one, Gavin Newsom, number two, Josh Shapiro, three, Pete Buttigieg, four, Kamala Harris, five, Rahm Emanuel, six, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, seven, Mark Kelly and eight, J.B. pritzker and Buttigieg Harris, Emanuel and Ocasio Cortez all move up and Pritzker moves down in my ratings. First thing, Karen, how do you feel overall about the list?
- [32:56]
Karen Skelton
I'm curious why, why Pritzker moves down. And I, and I also am not bought into as high where Kamala is. Yeah, just, you know, I think there's three, you know, main criteria kind of or buckets here. One, it has to do with who has the money. Other has to do with sort of dark horses that may or may not have money but not polling so well. And another category that I've been thinking a lot about lately is the non political person, you know, the Mark Cuban, the Jon Stewart, the somebody unusual. And I just, you know, Kamala's got the money but people, not her fault, just not her time. And so I would continue to move her down. And I'm just not sure about the reasoning on Pritzker. And I see some dark horses in there, but I like those right now.
- [33:52]
Omid Memarian
All right.
- [33:52]
Mark Halperin
Well, I'll just say I said it earlier in the program. I moved Pritzker down because I've gone and listened to a ton of his interviews and I just don't understand. I get it's great to be a billionaire, but I just don't understand what else he has drive, et cetera. And the thing about Harris is she's incredibly polarizing. So just from a, from a judgment point of view, some people think she should be first on the list, who I talked to this, reporting this, and some people think she shouldn't be on the list at all. You see overall critique the way Karen did of who should, who should be higher or lower.
- [34:23]
Yemesi Bawali
I'm not bought into the AOC train. I think she does well with young folks, but I also think Bernie did well with young folks and he banked on young people. He banked on new voters, non traditional Democrats, people who don't always come out for the establishment candidate. I'm just I'm not bought into it. I don't think that she's also done anything overtly impressive for me. I'm even thinking back to the Munich conference. There has just she just hasn't had a standout moment. Even the bill she introduced about data centers with the full moratorium to me, I feel like she's out of step with with the list in general when it comes to funding. And then when it comes to huge name id, I always keep Pritzker on a list because I think a billionaire will put himself in the race regardless. I'm thinking about and Karen, I'm over here teach at usc and we were just talking about Tom Steyer yesterday. So I'm just thinking about if the money's there, you'll somehow end up on the stage. But in terms of name ID and capturing a new demographic of voters, I also am wondering where Pritzker goes from here. Harris I always remain kind of bullish on because she does have an effect when she does these kind of Southern swings. And I'm sure we'll talk about Rahm Emanuel and his and his recent trip to the south and maybe we'll talk a little bit about the National Action Network that's happening this week week and Reverend Al Sharpton's big conference, which is also a good steer to see how the black demographic ends up voting. She's she does still have that kind of capture with that really solid base that we can count on to always come out and vote. So I see why she she stays on top, but she obviously has a vulnerability because she's run before.
- [36:01]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Do either of you challenge my one two they've been one two every every month. Shapiro and or Pritzker, Newsom and Shapiro.
- [36:10]
Yemesi Bawali
No, I mean, look, from a personal standpoint, I don't see it for Gavin Newsom for for a California politician to relate nationally. However, on name ID on on who captures and breaks through Newsom at this point in the race makes sense on number one. And I think Shapiro, who's actually going to be speaking at the National Action Network tomorrow with Reverend Al Sharpton and Fireside Chat. I think he's done a great job with the book tour. He does a great job in the Commonwealth right now is a good time for him to remain in that top three. I think it's good to see him popped up.
- [36:43]
Mark Halperin
Karen, do you agree one two is okay for now.
- [36:46]
Karen Skelton
I agree. They're okay for now.
- [36:48]
Thumbtack Announcer
Yeah.
- [36:48]
Mark Halperin
Okay. Rom is such an interesting character because if. If you. If you talk to the establishment, and Karen, you live in California, so I won't say your east coast establishment, but. But the establishment feels the way you do about Kamala Harris. Not her time. She had her chance. She may have some support in the abstract, but when the rubber meets the road, it's going to all fall apart. And they all love Rahm, and not all of them think Rom will be the nominee, but they think he'll be in the mix. And Rahm certainly is doing a lot of stuff. If Rahm were taller, not Jewish, didn't have his trouble with the base, and was doing what he was doing, I think people would be a lot higher on him. So are you. Are. Karen, you first. Are you at the point where you think it's interesting? He'll be on the stage, he'll raise a decent amount of money, but he can't be the nominee. Or you believer that he could be the nominee?
- [37:43]
Karen Skelton
I believe he could be the nominee. I mean, I think first of all, he's doing the work. And if you're in this thing, you gotta work hard, and he's out there doing it. He's a hard worker. Secondly, and I've said this before with you, is that we don't know how is. Is the Israeli vote is going to play. We don't know what difference the war is going to make. But somebody who has his, you know, who's strong, pro Israel, moderate, that might be something that's really important this time around. We'll see.
- [38:20]
Mark Halperin
So, yeah, Yemen. Do you think he can be the nominee?
- [38:23]
Yemesi Bawali
I think if we're going for short Jewish men, Josh Shapiro already fills that bucket. And if we're going for rich Jewish men, JB Pritzker already fills that bucket. Rahm Emanuel doesn't give me anything that's different. I do like his messaging. I like a lot of the sticking to the economics and staying away from what he calls the cultural cul de sac. That's fantastic. I think he's the wrong messenger. He's the architect of a lot of what we are experiencing now. So it's a hard thing for him, Obama.
- [38:50]
Mark Halperin
So in my reporting. Well, to me, the harder thing is his time as mayor because the base just doesn't like it. But in my reporting, Karen, there are fewer people in your category than there are in the embassies in terms of can he be the nominee? Because I think that the minute Rahm if he ever does turns that corner with donors, with activists, with early state folks, I think that'd be a huge moment for him, because if people think he can actually win, I think a lot of his strengths then get supercharged. What do you think of that theory?
- [39:20]
Karen Skelton
Well, I mean, he's clearly a fringe candidate at the moment, but do I think he can turn the corner? I think, I think he could in a, in a debate situation, distinguish himself as a pragmatic problem solver.
- [39:35]
Mark Halperin
Let me, let me, let me stop you, though, because we all know Rahm, and I think that colors our, our sense of him. You say he's a fringe candidate. I'm just, I'm pushing back in the sake for the, you know, in the spirit of the program. He was an ambassador to Japan. He was a White House chief of staff. He was a leading member of the House of Representatives. He was the mayor of one of our biggest cities. What makes him a fringe candidate?
- [39:58]
Karen Skelton
He's less than 1% in everything I've looked at. He's not, he doesn't, he's not exposed nationally on the kind of stage that he would, you know, like Gavin has right now. So I said, think he's on the fringe? Can he raise money? Yes. Is he, is he very smart? And he will be great in a debate set where he can have his sharp wit. So I think he could break away.
- [40:28]
Yemesi Bawali
Can I say back to Karen made the point about those kind of outside the bucket candidates. I almost sometimes put Rahm in that Mark Cuban bucket. The Jon Stewart, even the Stephen A. Smith. I know he's been a part of the establishment, but I do think a lot of the folks we look at very seriously are the governors or the members of Congress. And even for like a Pete Buttigieg who was also a mayor, I think he just ranks differently having been Secretary of Transportation. And I have my own opinions of Pete Buttigieg because I need to see more than 1% with black people. But we'll get to that another time.
- [41:03]
Mark Halperin
Right? Well, let's talk about him because we won't get through everybody on the list, because I want to ask you about it.
- [41:06]
Karen Skelton
One thing about what you just said, I think he. You're absolutely right. I completely agree with you. The only thing I would say is because of his tenure as mayor in Chicago and how badly that ended McDonald,
- [41:18]
Mark Halperin
it's, yeah, yeah, it's never going away. And it's, there's really no great way to deal with it. Just want to talk about people, judge, and then I want to get to the Pluff thing. I moved him up and I'm probably higher on him than almost anybody I've reported with. I know all the downsides and obviously he's not going to be the nominee if he can't improve with black voters. But he is working on it because it's not, it's not like something you can't fix, at least in the abstract. Just each of you, you have to see first, what's your best, best argument for putting him as high as 3, even if you don't agree with that placement. What is, what, what is he doing? Well, in your view?
- [41:51]
Yemesi Bawali
He encompasses a lot of what I think Democratic candidates are trying to do. He does really well in those outside Democrat media spaces that a lot of folks are trying to figure out. Newsom does it sometimes, but I think Pete Buttigieg has led the way. He can have those conversations on the podcast that Democrats are clamoring to be on. He connects to young men, I think, in a way that Dems are also looking to do. It's just coming, coming from Georgia, I just see the writing on the wall with him.
- [42:20]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. Karen, what's he doing?
- [42:21]
Karen Skelton
Well, I agree with everything Y said. I think he's also experienced. He's run before. He has a national fundraising base. He's, he's, he's very attractive to small donors. And I think he can turn that around pretty quickly, which goes kind of to the youth point. And I think college educated people really like them. And that's a, you know, huge determinant of this as of the nomination. Yeah.
- [42:48]
Mark Halperin
I think what David Pluff said about content is obviously true. It's true of every CEO as well. Right. You gotta, you gotta go on other people's shows, but you also have to produce your own content. And it's gotta be good and it's gotta be tailored to, it's gotta be tailored to the platform. I think part of what was smarter what David said is it's a time management thing to some extent. Producing good content takes time, and you can't just post stuff if it's no good. You got to redo it. And most campaign schedules aren't structured that way. They're structured more to do traditional things. So, Karen, if you were advising someone who's thinking about running for president and they said, I read Pluff's column op ed piece and I agree with it, what are sort of the rules of the road to make sure that gets executed the right way?
- [43:35]
Karen Skelton
You know, in California and Yemassi has seen this too, I'm sure. Now the governor's candidates who are putting ads up are really breaking the mold in some ways. And Gavin was the first to do it with his social media, and he had this young person who just said a couple things. I mean, it wasn't even, you know, it was just capital letters. So it's getting, you know, for me. And Steyer is now using the same person that Fetterman used and Mandapi used, and his stuff is. I'll be interested to see how well it plays. It's kind of annoying to me, but, you know, I don't know, I think you gotta find really one or two creative people. No more, you know, big firms who produce, you know, you know, very, very expensive, well tailored stuff. People don't even watch it anymore. They just want to hear a few funny things from social media that are, you know, that have a. That have an idea attached to them.
- [44:44]
Mark Halperin
Yeah.
- [44:45]
Karen Skelton
So.
- [44:46]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, yeah, yeah. See, funny is. Funny is great. And Mandami, you know, is great at funny. Gavin's okay at funny. Maybe sometimes. But what about emotional? Is emotional content important? It seems to me it should be, but you rarely see people try to do that.
- [45:04]
Yemesi Bawali
Yeah, well, because it's very easy to make emotional look hokey and inauthentic, and that's what everybody's scared of. But I think one interesting thing. Candidates. You can tell candidates are good at digital when they are involved in digital. A lot of. A lot of candidates get handed a piece of paper that tells them, this is what we're going to film, this is what you're going to say. And you could tell candidates, like a mom, Donnie, who were directly involved in how it looks, how it presents. Then it felt like this was an idea he came up with by himself, even though you knew there was a team behind him, that that was the sourcing for this. So in the same way, when they do their speeches and they're editing it and then they're putting in the teleprompter and giving it. They have to treat digital that exact same way. So I think people have to shift. I think some people are going to be able to do that easier than others because a lot of folks don't care about digital until you have to. So you have to staff up. You're going to have to staff up campaigns, too. The same amount of speechwriters and comms people you have. You have to have the same amount of digital people. We'll see who believes that's important.
- [46:06]
Karen Skelton
I think if I could just Respond to that for a second. You said something. Yes, Ami, about that. People are going to have to shift. And I guess what I think is this is really a generational issue. If you're not comfortable with digital, if you're not rok on it, if you're not already using it, if you're not on it all the time, it's not going to come off authentic. Because you're right. I think people just read a piece of paper and it looks like somebody just handed it to them. And so I think that this is going to be something that people are good at because they know it and they're instinctive with it and they use it all the time.
- [46:43]
Mark Halperin
Couldn't agree more. All right, put up the the April list again. Jesse Lyric. Listen to like a thousand hours of these podcasts. Now. These are some that they go on other people's shows, some of their own. I'm curious, if you had to listen to a hundred hours of hosted podcasts by One of these eight people over a month, 100 hours, who would you choose? Give me a serious answer. Which one of those eight people would you be most inclined to survive listening to 100 hours of them hosting a podcast? Yemen.
- [47:13]
Yemesi Bawali
Yeah, I would listen to aoc, and she's probably a bit more. I mean, she's. She is a bit more progressive than me, but I have watched her Instagram lives. She's captivating. She can keep people on for a good amount of time. And I think if you can keep a live audience moving, I mean, you know, Mark, it's that. That's really gold. And so I think she would do great in a podcast setting. She wouldn't be boring to me. I could listen to.
- [47:35]
Mark Halperin
Karen, who would you choose?
- [47:37]
Karen Skelton
Honestly, I think Rom, I mean, he's just, he's quirky and he's honest and, you know, and I like a good F word every now and then.
- [47:46]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, no, no bleeping. Ladies, thank you for making time. Enjoyed having you on. Look forward to having you back soon to talk about this stuff and everything else and grateful to you for being here. Karen, how long is your professorship going?
- [47:58]
Karen Skelton
All the way through next year. So, you know, I have to have you out there sometime.
- [48:02]
Mark Halperin
Very exciting. Bring me and Yemen see in together. We'll do a. We'll do a group class. Thank you both. Very grateful to you.
- [48:09]
Yemesi Bawali
Thanks, Mark.
- [48:10]
Mark Halperin
All right, next up, we're going to talk about Iran with someone who was born in Iran, was tortured in Iran, lived in Iran, and then left Iran and is longing to go back Omid Mamarian is here. He's the director of communications, a senior Iran analyst at dawn. He joins us. Next up, did you know that high blood pressure is the number one risk factor for mortality? One in two adults has it. That means there's a 5050 chance. Right now you're a walking time bomb. But here's some good news. You can take control of your blood pressure naturally without any reliance on Big Pharma. 120 Life is a blend of great tasting super fruit juices that have been shown to help lower blood pressure. It's backed by hundreds of doctors entrusted by thousands of people who have seen measurable results. And here's the best part. It's completely risk free. Try 120 Life for two weeks and if you don't see a difference in your numbers, you get your money back. Go to 120life.com that's 120life.com and use the code NextUp to save 20% and get free shipping. This is a serious matter. This is your life we're talking about here. 120 life can help LifeLock.
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Omid Memarian
How can I help?
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Karen Skelton
The IRS said I filed my return, but I haven't.
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Thumbtack Announcer
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Mark Halperin
What do I do?
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Omid Memarian
My refund though.
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Mark Halperin
I'm freaking out. Don't worry, I can fix this.
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California Governor's Wife
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Mark Halperin
No problem. I'll be with you every step of the way.
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Thumbtack Announcer
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DSW Announcer
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Omid Memarian
Yeah.
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DSW Announcer
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- [50:26]
Mark Halperin
All right, next up, we go back to talking about Iran. Joining me now, Omid Mamarian. He's a senior Iran analyst at the group dawn with an extraordinary connection to Iran. Omid, so often when, when I have people on my shows who are Iranian, American, they've never been to Iran or they left when they were children or their parents left and came to the United States. You have lived in Iran. Talk to people. Just broad strokes. Where were you born, how long did you live in Iran, and under what circumstances did you leave?
- [50:58]
Omid Memarian
Thanks for having me. That's correct. I was born in Iran. I was raised in Iran. I went to school in Iran. I worked as a journalist in Iran. I was imprisoned by the Iranian government for doing journalism and writing on political and social issues. For a while. I was tortured by the Iranian government, and I left the country in 2005 to come to the US and pursue my higher education. I went to UC Berkeley. I studied journalism, and I continued doing journalism and human rights work. And much of that work is basically focused on holding Iranian officials accountable for their human rights violations and basically shed light on what's happening inside the country.
- [51:47]
Mark Halperin
Have you been back to Iran since 2005?
- [51:50]
Omid Memarian
It's not a type of business that if you are engaged with writing against the Iranian government or criticizing them, you can go back to the country. They are not very kind to those who criticize the government.
- [52:01]
Mark Halperin
Would you like to go back someday?
- [52:02]
Omid Memarian
I would love that. I would love that. There's not a day that I. That I don't think about going back thinking that, you know, I'm raising my daughters here and they cannot see their father's homeland. It's. It's just devastating and it's very hardbreaking. But, you know, it's. The Iranian government is very cruel. They know how it's heavy on many, how it's heavy on Iranians who cannot go back to the country. Country. But I made a very strategic decision from the beginning that just because of the prize of going back, I'm not going to be silent. I'm not going to stop criticizing the government or being the voice for those who can talk inside the country. Because you know that the price for human rights activists and lawyers and those who seek real change in Iran and want to improve the situation, particularly the human rights activity situation, is the price is huge. The cost of activism in Iran is huge. Many people, many of my friends have been imprisoned. Many people have lost their lives, as you know. And just in the last round of protests in January, we all know that what happened, the government killed thousands of people. So we are dealing with a government that is very ruthless and cruel.
- [53:25]
Mark Halperin
Are you able to be in touch since the war, this round of war started, are you able to be in touch with people in Iran?
- [53:33]
Omid Memarian
I'm in touch with my family members and friends and my colleagues inside the country on and off because the Internet has been shut down. Most of the times they don't have access to the Internet. Those who are savvy enough to find strong VPNs or somehow get connected to the Internet, I've been able to chat and talk on the phone even up to like two days ago, you know, on and off during the day, and get a sense of what's happening in the country, what's happening in Tehran, and also how the sentiment, how people's sentiment towards the war and what is happening is changing. That has been my main question. How people feel differently from the time the war started to now.
- [54:24]
Mark Halperin
And how would you summarize how you think it's changed?
- [54:30]
Omid Memarian
I could see that some people bought the idea that President Trump or Bibi Netanyahu sold to the public that there is going to be a war. The war is going to be short but decisive. And after a few weeks of attacking Iranian military leadership or the political leadership, the people are going to rise up, go to the streets, and Iranian leaders will leave the country and the government collapse and the military people give up their guns. And, you know, that would be the fall of the regime. There were people who believed that idea. Honestly, it looked like a very Disney like type of scenario for Iran. But President Trump bought the idea from Netanyahu and so many Iranians. But the more we get into the war, particularly in the past two, three weeks, more and more people understand that if the purpose of the attack was the Iranian regime, if the purpose of the attack was to break the back of the repression machinery of the Islamic Republic of Iran, some of these bombings and targeting some of these infrastructures or places wouldn't make sense. So people are coming to the realization that this is much bigger than supporting the Iranian people for their plight for democracy or freedom. This is much bigger than that. And it's about Iran. It's about weakening Iran as a state, as a nation. And I think I've seen that. I've heard that from different people. Again, you know, people still think that, you know, the Islamic Republic should go. There is no love lost between the good portion of the Iranian society and the Iranian regime. They don't want the regime to be in place. But what President Trump has done over the past six weeks is that instead of basically breaking the regime, creating mass defections, bringing down the morale of the loyalists of the regime, it has actually strengthened the morale of the regime supporters and has given them so many reasons to fight back and resist.
- [56:54]
Mark Halperin
So I'm going to break down the last thing you said, am I right to say, broadly, you and Donald Trump wants the future of Iran, you want the same thing for the future of Iran. You think that's fair to say that
- [57:09]
Omid Memarian
President Trump and I like the same thing for the future of Iran?
- [57:13]
Mark Halperin
Yeah. You'd like to see a different government in place that lives peacefully with its neighbors, that doesn't repress its people, that is integrated into the modern world. Right. You, you both share that.
- [57:24]
Omid Memarian
Who doesn't? Absolutely. This is, this is our dream. The question is how? What's the best way to do it?
- [57:31]
Mark Halperin
Exactly. So one thing you don't like is the rhetoric he's used in the last 72 hours where he's talked about eliminating a civilization, where he's used profanity about the Iranian regime. Talk about your kind of dark view of why talking about eliminating Iranian civilization is not a threat that might bring the regime to the negotiating table, but something darker and less likely to succeed. Why do you feel that way?
- [58:02]
Omid Memarian
First of all, I believe that the attacks we have seen over the past six weeks, it was supposed to be directed at the Iranian regime, but now it has gone wild. And now we are seeing Iranian infrastructures and civilian infrastructure infrastructures are being hit. The idea for the future of Iran go through the path of overthrowing the Islamic Republic. And to overthrow the Islamic Republic, the first thing is to break the cycle of violence, break the machinery of repression, to create cracks within the regime, to create mass defections within the supporters of the regime and to push the Iranian military, the Revolutionary Guards, the paramilitary Bastij forces throughout the country to drop their guns and to join the people. That I think is a pathway to basically go towards a post Islamic Republic of Iran. But what has happened is that when you talk about committing war crimes, you know, going after Iranians infrastructures is just a blatant invitation to committing war crimes. If when you talk about going after Iran as a civilization, as a unit of identity and as a culture, what it does is that it makes people who even are against the Iranian regime even don't like the government. Even they want the regime to go yesterday, not even tomorrow, today or tomorrow. They think twice in supporting what is happening. And they basically, basically what President Trump did was to create cracks within those people who are against the Iranian regime. Many people now in Iran are against the government, but they do not support the war. I think that's the implication of what President Trump has said. And it's going to be more. We are going to see more of that.
- [60:08]
Mark Halperin
So whatever you think of the respective policies of Donald Trump's predecessors. They did not weaken the regime to the point that they lost grip of power. Whatever you think about what happened in the uprising, the biggest uprising the regime has faced, it did not dislodge them. You could have imagined a world like Tiananmen Square or what happened during the Cold War, the Soviet Union, where these uprisings were magnified by the slaughter of protesters. Instead, they basically squelched it. And that's part of why President Trump did what he did. If you could turn the clock back to the beginning of this conflict before it began, and President Trump asked you what, what you wanted done to try to bring about a better life for the people of Iran so you could bring your daughters back there, what would you have advised him to do differently than what he's done?
- [61:07]
Omid Memarian
This is not, as you know, this is not an easy question, but there is a reason that the previous administrations did not choose the pathway of war with Iran, a full fledged war with Iran. I think there is a reason for that. There was a logic behind that mentality. And the main thing is that they don't want to go after the government in a way that when they leave the country, the government is stronger. And over the past few years, over the past 15 years, we have seen people have had achievements. During the 2022 nationwide protest that is named after Mahsa, Armenian Woman Life Freedom Movement, we see that how the government was, the government was cornered, how they gave off some of their basically restrictions on the Iranian people. And more and more we saw that the Iranian government was getting weaker and weaker and people were getting stronger. That's why the round of protests in Iran had become closer to each other, like 20 years ago. Every three years, five years, we had protests, massive protests. In the past few years, we have had every six months, every year we had protests inside the country, strikes by workers, union, labor union, union workers and others. So the government was cornered and they were like, pushed to have massive changes in the society. They understood that the society is very much on the verge of explosion. So we were at that point that the war happened. So at this point, it's very difficult to say what would be the advice. But I think there are many ways to hold the Iranian government accountable and raise the cost of repression for them. Unfortunately, the US has chosen the path of war. This is something that, as you know, in Washington, going to war with Iran has had followers and fans. Over the past 20 years, we have had two camps in Washington. One camp pushed and promoted diplomacy, engagement, rappachement with Iran, hoping that by Iran joining the international community, hoping that Iran joining the global economy would open spaces within the country, expanding the middle class and make the Iranian government more vulnerable towards foreign pressure, international pressure, the pressure by international organizations like the UN Once you isolate a country to the extent that, you know, they have no, that nobody has any influence inside the country, then they can do anything to their citizens. So right now we are at a point that those people who advocated for war, for a military intervention, their option is being tested now and we have to see how it's going to go.
- [64:09]
Mark Halperin
Yeah, everything you say makes so much sense and again, your perspective on it is, is not something that anybody should challenge or, or, or, or, or ignore. But to, to, to, to many the proofs in the pudding of the lack of fundamental change. You say the government was on the precipice, perhaps of falling, certainly the economy was bad. But these are people with one of the most well developed terror networks, police states, a determination to develop ballistic missiles and, and, and nuclear weapons that were a threat to the region and to the world. And what President Trump has argued, and the people who support this would argue is it wasn't happening. Change was not happening, as evidenced by the fact that you had the capacity of a government in this day and age to kill tens of thousands of its citizens for expressing their opposition to the government that wasn't causing the regime to end. So I'll say again, do you have any sympathy from this point of view or you believe that it's intrinsically destined to fail because it will simply rally the people of Iran against the United States and Israel and for the government.
- [65:30]
Omid Memarian
The Iranian government right now has become much more weaker than last month. So we don't know how long they are going to last. Six months, a year from now, two years from now. The point I'm making here is that the people of Iran, what they want is that after the Islamic Republic, there is a democratic society. As you mentioned, we have a government that is democratic, has a good relationship with its neighbors, joins the global economy, respects human rights and stuff like that. The pathway that we are seeing right now, the war has opened the Pandora box for Iranians. And the scenarios we are seeing in front of us are very dark. Some of them are really dark. And none of them points us at a very good direction we are going. The scenarios, our options ranges from a civil war to a more radical Islamic republic if they survive. So none of the scenarios we are seeing before our eyes point us at a transitional transition to a democratic Society. And I think that's the scary part.
- [66:47]
Mark Halperin
Talk about what you love about Iran, about Iranian culture, music, food, tourist attractions, tourist sites. What is it when you think about your homeland, what do you think about that makes you feel proud to be Iranian?
- [67:02]
Omid Memarian
I think more than anything else, I would say the Iranian people and the sense of community and belonging and connectiveness and love they have for each other. And I think anybody who has traveled to Iran has tasted this sort of like the essence of the Iranian people who are very hospitable and kind. And for me, Iran is poetry, Iran is music, Iran is culture. Iran is a sense of respect for others and for the elders. And, you know, I can't tell you enough, like how much when you are Iranian, you can live for decades out of Iran, but you can still live every second of your life with that sense of identity in general. It's very hard to describe, of course, Iranian history and architecture and all these historic places are amazing. But I would say the people and their resilience that I have been witnessing myself and I've been a part of that group of people in Iran, the urge to have a better life, the urge and what they do to change the society, I think for me is absolutely amazing. I've seen many people going to prison on and off. My former lawyer, Nassin Sutoude, who is a prominent lawyer, she has spent so many years in prison just for defending political prisoners. The Nobel Peace Laureate Nages Mohammadi, who has been working to improve human rights situation in Iran, has been many years in prison. But people, the repression, the violence, the arrest and imprisonment, these type of tools have not broken the spirit of the people of Iran. And I think that's a great point. That's something that I think at some point would bring down the Islamic Republic or create massive changes in ways that the Islamic Republic would not be the same after Omid.
- [69:16]
Mark Halperin
What you said is so lovely and it rhymes with everything every Iranian American I've ever known, when I've asked them a question like that and just talking to them, they. They cite the same things. All the strengths of the people that you talked about. Emphatically true. Because. Because I've heard it so often. And yet the paradox to me is how do you reconcile that strong desire for a better life, that sense of community, with millions and millions of people living under an oppressive regime for decades and not having the. And again, I'm not saying it's a lack of bravery, because we've seen extraordinary bravery by you and others, but how could it Be that a regime, a fanatical, repressive police state, could be in place for decades, ruling over tens of millions of people who share your vision of the strength of the Iranian people. How could that be?
- [70:11]
Omid Memarian
I would say Iran, with the Islamic Republic, looks like a body with a huge cancer in your. In your body. And to bring that cancer, that tumor out, it needs a very precise and very careful surgery. It doesn't, you know, a rushed surgery or a rushed attempt to, for example, save the patient probably would not, you know, would not be the best idea. What is happening with President Trump and, you know, the, the last six weeks war is that rushed and very immature way of, like dealing with a patient who has a very advanced cancer. And the reason for so many years, different presidents have been careful with this patient, and the cancer has been that they didn't want the patient to die under the surgery. And I think that's the major, major concern for all of us, that we want to save the patient, not to basically, in order to remove the tumor, kill the patient. And what President Trump is doing, it shows that basically the patient doesn't have much value for the US For America. And I think that's very disheartening to see what is happening. And I think the change in the language and changing the framework of the war, the conceptual framework of the war, to go from going after. From the Iranian. To go from after. From after going after the Iranian regime to destroying the civilization of Iran, I think that tells us the whole story.
- [71:58]
Mark Halperin
Amit, I hope three things. I hope that you're wrong about the degree to which people in the Trump administration care about Iran and the people there. I hope you're wrong about that. I hope that when you go back to Iran with your daughters, I get to go with you, if not physically, at least spiritually and metaphorically, because I think that's going to be a great moment. And I hope that this ends soon. And I hope it ends with a flourishing Iran that can be part of the world community and peace and love and understanding and a sense that what's happened for the last four and a half decades or more is an aberration and not the will of the people grateful to you. Tell folks, if they want to keep up with your writing and social media, where they can find you.
- [72:42]
Omid Memarian
I'm. I'm on X and you can find me at Omid M on X and I'm on Instagram and other platforms. Thank you so much for having me. I'll share all the hopes that you. You just share with me.
- [72:56]
Mark Halperin
All right. How old are your kids?
- [72:59]
Omid Memarian
16 years old and 1 year and a half.
- [73:02]
Mark Halperin
All right. Let's hope we get them back there before they go to college because we'll lose them forever after that. Thank you. Grateful to you for making time. Look forward to having you back.
- [73:09]
Omid Memarian
I appreciate it. Thank you so much. It was great.
- [73:11]
Mark Halperin
All right, that's it for today's program. You got to see our April installment of 8 for 28. Grateful to Karen and Yemassi and Omid all for joining us today. We'll be back on Thursday. Another brand new episode will be. I'm sure we'll be talking more about Iran and what's gone on since then. Subscribe to NextUp Everywhere on YouTube and the podcast platforms. We love having you be part of the program and we always want you to know what's coming next up.