John C. Dvorak (69:41)
China, China, China. This pit. You're a little early on the pivot, bro. All right, I have some, I think, good analysis. I've played this. Yes. Standby. This comes from Canada. I mean, even more. Oh, this guy is good. I've played him before. He's a retired national defense dude for Scandinavia. Andrew Resilis, I think is how you pronounce it and he gives a much more accurate picture. First, first of all, the whole background to it has to be put into proper context of how we even got here. And I think he does a good job. Let me make a start by asking you of how things are playing out, especially between United States Donald Trump and Ukraine's Zelensky. It's sort of a war of words that's broken out between them. The, the latest war of words is about the fact that what Trump is suggesting is that if the Ukrainians had implemented the Minsk 2 agreements, which were signed in 2015, and had they implemented them, the suggestion is the Russians would have had no reason to attack since they would have gotten neutral Ukrainian buffer zone from that deal. So he's blaming Ukrainians for not implementing that deal on the popularity ratings. I mean, that's a bit of an issue because he says there are 4% and most figures say a 50%. So that's just an off the wall thing. Exactly. So, yes, that's exactly right. Ukraine did not adhere to the agreement, the Minsk 2 accord, and they were invited to Saudi Arabia, by the way. Let's talk about Ukraine actually being left out from the first round of talks itself between United States, States and Russia. And of course, we've seen how there was an emergency meeting held in Europe in regards with that and then Zelensky also meeting with Turkey. Your take on how this is playing out in terms of ending the war? Well, the Americans really want to push this, which is why they're trying to keep it really to the, to the combatants or the protagonists. Russia, Ukraine and the United States as a broker. And that's a key difference from Biden and where they were doing having Ukrainians push it and then, as Trump Sundays, would take three years and got nowhere. So that's a major change in how they're going to make the deal. And the Russia and the Americans want to drive this home. The Americans are also looking at their bilateral relationship with Russia and not related necessarily just to Ukraine. Now, with the Ukrainians, Trump is saying, you know, they're going to bring them in and they offer them, you know, depending what you read. Ukrainians were offered to be at the table in Saudi Arabia, but they refused to do that. So take your story on that one. But yes, behind the scenes, there's a lot going on. In fact, today in public, Kellogg, Trump's envoy, is arriving in Kiev to talk to Zelensky. So that shows a continual dialogue that is actually taking place. Exactly. And then finally, what is. What is this? This is. Ah, yes. What's realistically on the table, what will actually go down. I think this guy has it right. Let's talk about the concessions here. What's your understanding? The manner in which it's playing out? The fact that we're seeing how Ukraine will not be a part of NATO, as we have heard, is a victory of sorts for Vladimir Putin. And then we have the regions of Luhans and Donetsk. We've had people from Trump administration saying that Ukraine should forget about returning to its original borders. Do you see a victory after victory coming in for Putin in that regard? Well, I mean, Putin's going to get something from this, and we. Rubio says all options are on the table. Now, these are early days of a negotiating process, and I caution that. So I personally don't take anything off the table as of now. But given the, let's say, the trend line, if you will. Yes, the territorial side of the equation, in all probability, Russia will walk away with most, if not all, of what it holds. And for Russia, Crimea and the land bridge to Crimea from Russia proper is absolutely key. And that will be, I believe, a victory for Putin in that sense. Now, the other side of the equation, which is the guarantees, the NATO membership, really, that's. We all know the official positions of rhetoric. No NATO for Ukraine in terms of the Russians and so on. But I think we have to wait to see how things work out. There is a spectrum of security guarantees that could be negotiated for Ukraine. And at this point, it's premature to really speculate on what those guarantees will be. Even, I would suggest, on NATO membership. Yeah, I get the feeling that Trump's ultimate plan is dissolve nat NATO and we will just offer security guarantees in return for things like no tariffs on our products or build, build in America. We'll protect you. You can trust us. Don't worry. There's also talk of the Mar A Lago accords. Which now, which I think is. I don't know if I was the first one to say it, but I hear it everywhere now. The Mar A Lago accord. This is crazy. That in order to rejigger the financial system, America will offer security guarantees to countries who swap their current treasury bonds for long term like hundred year, no coupon, so zero interest terrorist loans. Which will be very interesting if that happens. Have you, have you heard about this?
